Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Here Comes A January Rally And New All-Time Highs

Stocks took a bit of a punch in the face on Tuesday, but nothing a good night's sleep wouldn't relieve.

Overnight, Iran fired missiles at a couple of American bases in Iraq, hit mostly sand and neither killed nor wounded any American soldiers, according to published reports. If that's the extent of Iranian retaliation for the killing of their top general, it would suggest that Iran's leaders are not stupid and don't want to go to war against the world's most well-equipped military force.

Nobody can blame Iran for not wanting a direct fight with the US military. It would more than likely be a losing battle from the start and end with devastation to much of Iran's infrastructure. Their leaders may have taken the high road by intentionally missing American barracks, showing a calm hand while demonstrating that they can, if need be, meet force with force.

Iran is better equipped to keep doing what they've been doing: supporting splinter groups and terrorist cells without direct involvement in any conflict. In that scenario, they at least afford themselves the opportunity to keep selling their oil to countries who won't respect the US trade sanctions and maybe find their way to a negotiating table to end years of struggle in the region.

Wall Street would likely be amenable to such an arrangement. Some sense of rationality would be a welcome relief to not just the oil market but to the global economies, which have more than their share of worries presently.

If it is indeed the case that hostilities in the Middle East may have reached a turning point, that's all well and good. Any continued sign that the US and Iran are at a safe distance from each other militarily can only be good for the stock market. Such an antecedent would prompt a sharp rally in stocks, which have been somewhat on hold since Christmas and are looking for reasons to break out to new highs.

It being a fresh year, there's plenty of money sloshing around, enough to propel stocks further into the stratosphere.

Unless something terrible happens in the Middle East or elsewhere, expect markets to glide higher and potentially explode though the remaining weeks of January. As everybody in the investment world knows, as January goes, so goes the rest of the year. That's been an accurate guide for about 85% of the time. Another banner year like 2019 may not be in the cards, but it's a near certainty that stocks are poised for another leg higher and continued strong performance.

At the Close, Tuesday, January 7, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,583.68, -119.70 (-0.42%)
NASDAQ: 9,068.58, -2.88 (-0.03%)
S&P 500: 3,237.18, -9.10 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 13,898.45, -43.35 (-0.31%)

Monday, January 30, 2017

Stocks Close Friday Flat Ending Wild Week As Trump's Immigration Ban May Kill The Rally

Stocks cautiously ended the first full week of the Donald Trump presidency just as Mr. Trump unveiled his most audacious edict via executive order, barring immigration from countries embroiled in the throes of radical Islam such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen and four others.

While market participants have been somewhat encouraged by a number of first-week moves made by the new president, the promised immigration shutdown may have more implication globally than anybody may have wished. Stocks finished mixed in a week which witness a number of new all-time highs, particularly the Dow, which surpassed and held above the 20,000 level for the first time ever.

At the Close 1.27.16:
Dow: 20,093.78, -7.13 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 5,660.78, +5.61 (0.10%)
S&P 500: 2,294.69, -1.99 (-0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 11,283.19, -29.93 (-0.26)

On the week, all major indices sported gains, led by the NASDAQ and Dow Industrials, though the ramifications from the immigration ban were yet to be fully appreciated. As markets set to open in the US on Monday, futures indicated a negative open while markets around the world were suffering significant losses despite China and Hong Kong markets being closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday. The tenor of trading suggests that markets may not be going along for the protectionist ride that the Trump administration has in mind. "America First" may well turn out to be the death knell for globalization, but the results of such radical policy changes is sure to increase market volatility, which, to this point has been benign.

For the week:
Dow: +266.53 (+1.34%)
NASDAQ: +105.45 (+1.90%)
S&P 500: +23.38 (+1.03%)
NYSE Composite: +90.39 (+0.81%)

Monday, December 21, 2015

The Awakening Continues...

I would like to get back to the kind of world that existed when I knew nothing, when I was a kid, in the early 60s, before the MICC (Wilkerson's inclusion of "Congressional" to the standard MIC is essential and poignant) killed JFK.

Yeah, maybe America wasn't innocent and perfect, but it was miles ahead of what we have today. Anecdotally, my neighborhood, suburban Rochester (Irondequoit) was still largely a farming center. There were huge greenhouses just four doors down the street from me. And fruitstands, and kids riding bikes with no helmets, and cars without seatbelts and cops would would "give you a break" instead of "breaking your face."

Gradually, the farms were replaced with apartments, more apartments, stores, new homes, and the local government got bigger, and bigger and bigger. The town today is mostly still middle class, but the folks from the 60s and 70s have moved on. There are many more rentals, the shopping plaza that used to be all white shoppers is now 60-70% minorities, many of them on public assistance. The government is enormous. The school superintendant makes $285,000 a year, with golden pension, super health benefits, etc. The teachers make more money and have better benefits than 80% of the people they "serve."

It's all gone backwards. Our current system must come to an end, either by financial degradation (our best case) or armed conflict of private sector citizens against the "public servants." The government must be reigned in, and we must take our country back, because if we don't, there will be nothing left to salvage. We can start by opposing every school budget proposal and knocking school systems back to 1960s levels.

There will be great pain, so be on the right side. Private industry. Smaller government. Live and act without fear. It is the only way.

Published December 11, 2015, Abby Martin interviews retired U.S. Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, former national security advisor to the Reagan administration, who spent years as an assistant to Secretary of State Colin Powell during both Bush administrations. Today, he is honest about the unfixable corruption inside the establishment and the corporate interests driving foreign policy.

Hear a rare insider's view of what interests are behind U.S. wars, the manipulation of intelligence, the intertwining of the military and corporate world, and why the U.S. Empire is doomed.

Friday, December 18, 2015

The Big Reset Has Begun; Prepare Accordingly; Stocks Skid to 2-Month Lows

Coincidence?

Try these events from the past three days:

Kerry meets with Putin, says Assad can stay as ruler of Syria. US policy neutered.

Biden calls off Turkey, tells them to stop violating Iraq's borders. US policy neutered.

Fed raised Fed funds rate, banks raise prime rate.

Putin publicly backs Trump.

Ukraine defaults on Russian debt. While this may appear bad for Russia, it's worse for Ukraine, and even worse for US policy.

Today, the plug will be pulled on over a trillion$ in SPY options. Winners and losers, lots of both.

The world has changed radically in the past week. Trump is now the de facto US President. Obama can go to Hawaii and stay there for all the world leaders care. Kerry had no power; now he has even less, if that's possible.

Just watch: terrorism will be a non-starter for 2016. US intel has been found out (by Putin) and he's putting an end to it all.

Will truth and justice return to America? Just like bankruptcy, gradually, then all of a sudden.

h/t to Ernest Hemingway

Then, there's this cryptic note - citing Jim Willie's Hat Trick Letter - found in the comments section on a Zero Hedge article.

GLOBAL RESET HAS BEEN TRIGGERED, THE PROCESS BEGUN, THE VOICE FINALLY WARNS... THE EVENTS HAVE BEGUN, AND THE USFED RATE HIKE MIGHT HAVE BEEN PART OF THE GLOBAL DECISION. $$$

The Voice gives an urgent warning that finally the breakdown is accelerating, the damage profound, the effects unmistakable, the plug pulled. The officials have not undertaken any remedy for several years. His message is clear and stark, the first time such a communication has been given to the Jackass and colleagues. It was given just a few days before the USFed rate hike decision was made. "Guys, the plug has been pulled. Let the show begin. Our organization has been alerted accordingly to that effect this morning at 4am, that the deed is done. The battle trigger code has been chosen. It will get incredibly ugly, as real casualties will result. The annihilation of entire groups of people within the corrupt and criminal systems will be unimaginable to normal humanoids. These systems will be totally dismembered and crushed, never to be resurrected. The cabal is being caught in a grand dragnet, with the outcome certain to be their extermination, along with all their agents and collaborators. [1] The effects of this event driven scenario will become visible to the ordinary people in early 2016 and forward. Once the dust settles, it is clear to me that the human population will be noticeably lower, with fewer people roaming this planet." The Voice is referring to the Satanist Bank Cabal groups. We mere mortals hope that reason prevails, that remedy is agreed upon, that transition is orderly, so that a billion people do not needlessly perish. But the Anglo-Americans have their favorite nuclear and virus toys. We have seen ample evidence of their chemical plant explosions as a warm-up to main events.

Our organization has been alerted accordingly...

At 11:00 am ET, the S&P already dumped 2030 and 2020. Getting closer to the magic mark of 2000.

Don't actually think it matters if it happens today, tomorrow, next week or next year. The crash has been underway since late May, the last time the NAZ, S&P and Dow all set new all time highs.

The trash is being taken to the dumpster. Watch terrorism disappear as a major story. The meme for 2016 will be economic security, and Trump will win easily.

In fact, since Putin's endorsement yesterday, some would wager that in the minds of most world leaders, Trump is already the US de facto president. Obummer is so over. Hillary is a non-starter. Change is good; best to be out in front of it. The elections will be all for show, since Trump is self-financed. The money machine(s) is/are grinding to a halt.

Americans are going to see the fruits of what the Fed and the federal government, state governments, and local governments have sewn: TRASH. Loads of TRASH, piled high, heaped upon more loads of TRASH.

Bankruptcies should absolutely soar in 2016. Corporate failures and bond defaults will accelerate. Pensions will default on payments. The US will slowly, painfully, resort to honest money. GOLD AND SILVER WILL SOAR.

A BIG THANK YOU TO JANET and THE FOMC. THANKS, YOU NITWITS.

David Stockman really nailed it in his post at Contra Corner Blog.

And, while the economy slowly crumbles, congress (which obviously didn't get the memo that they're fired) conveniently passed a $1.15 trillion omnibus budget bill with the notorious CISA government spying act included.

At the end of the week (the last full week of 2015), the figures for the major averages look pretty stupid.

The Dow was smacked down a whipping 367 points, closing at 17,128.59, the lowest closing price since mid-October. For the week, the DJI was off nearly one percent, down 136.62 points.

The S&P nearly got to the 2000 mark, closing down 36.43, at 2005.46 on the day, but lost just 6.95 for the week. On the NASDAQ, it was a 1.59% loss, down 79.47, at 4973.08. On a weekly basis, it doesn't look bad on the surface, as the NAZ lost a mere 10 points.

However, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were all up days for the major indices. Thursday and Friday were down, and down big, erasing all of the early-week gains. From the highs after the FOMC meeting, on Wednesday's close, the losses portend further losses next week. a cleansing of bad assets is well underway, and there are plenty of bad ones in all markets.

Also, the entire treasury curve flattened. The 10-year yield, in particular, dropped 10 basis points from 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, the moment of the FMOC rate hike announcement, ending the week at 2.20%. If the Fed's master plan was working, shouldn't all bond yields - especially those of shorter durations - have gone up? This is a classic example of the market rejecting the Fed, with more to come, as the Fed thinks it's going to raise rates four more times in 2016, a recipe for economic cataclysm.

Lastly, keep a close eye on the banks (JPM, BAC, C, GS, WFC, MS) as they were all lower by 2-3% on the day.

David Bowie's Changes should suffice as an appropriate song for a truly epic week:



Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Hard Times for America and the World; Harder Choices for Americans

Today, we stand at an important crossroad of history.

The United States is about to make one of the greatest strategic blunders of all time, even after lessons should have been learned from military misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq.

With support from congressmen and congresswomen from both sides of the aisle, the current administration is preparing to plunge the United States into another Middle East military conflict, centered on the civil war - that is none of our business and serves no national interest - in Syria.

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.
-- Ernest Hemingway

Recently-appointed Secretary of State, John Kerry, kicked off the relentless banging of war drums late Monday afternoon, with a press conference, highlighting America's "undeniable" evidence that the regime of Bashir Assad had used chemical warfare against its own citizens last week.

Kerry, one of the richest politicians in the world thanks to his marriage to Heinz heiress, Teresa Heinz in 1995, spoke of "additional intelligence" which would indicate that Assad was behind the chemical attack that killed hundreds in a Damascus suburb. Estimates had ranged to over 1000, but recent estimates fall between 150 and 355, which is the number of deaths quoted by Doctors without Borders.

Kerry said that this additional evidence would be released in coming days. In the meantime, the US has expressed concern that UN inspectors have not been given unfettered access to the attack site, which is contrary to published reports that the Assad government is complying with UN requests.

Additionally, Kerry made a comment, supposedly directed at Russia, but ostensibly aimed at anyone who believes the chemical attack was a "false flag" engineered by CIA or other undercover agents under direction from the United States, in order to heat up the situation and foment conditions for war in Syria.

Kerry said, "Anyone who can claim that an attack of this staggering scale can be contrived or fabricated needs to check their conscience and their own moral compass." However, Assad has repeatedly and steadfastly denied that his government was behind the attack. Besides, Assad has been seen as winning the civil war against home-grown rebels and outside agitators from the Muslim Brotherhood and groups associated with Al Queda, so there was no direct benefit for the use of chemical warfare, especially since President Obama said months ago that such use would "cross a red line."

In Kerry's "moral compass" statement, in response to words from the Kremlin that the situation mirrored that in Iraq, centered around non-existent weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) that led the US into war 10 years ago, lies the seed of disingenuousness.

In more genteel times, such as prior to 2001, such comments would not even be given an airing, but, since 9/11, and even before, the scenario has been set. Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, knows exactly which button to push in order to riase the ire of the US, and he is pushing them. As far as "strong evidence suggesting" (a term Kerry, and compatriots like Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and Colin Powell like to use) is concerned, there's a recurring pattern emerging out of Washington DC, starting with the Gulf of Tonkin incident which plunged us into the Vietnam War, to the events of 9/11/2001, around which skeptics still abound, to the Iraq invasion based upon what is now called "flawed intelligence," to the present condition in Syria.

It seems like every time the economy is in trouble (read on, there's more of that to come) or the US needs to exploit the resources of a weaker nation (Egypt and Libya come immediately and recently to mind), there's some "event" that brings out the president, the Secretary of State, various members of congress, especially war-mongers John McCain and Lindsay Graham rattling the sabers like medieval warlords.

The US is once again on the same path, with the media lapping it up and spitting it out to the trusting American public. These are truly the hardest of times, and the hardest of decisions face the American public just ahead. Will they continue to support these elected leaders who act more like psychopathic killers than men and women of judgement and compassion, or will Americans stand up and resist, though protests in the recent past have gone for naught because the media has been purchased in whole by the banking-political cartel and will not give protests their proper airing.

It is inconceivable in this day and age of an open internet and mass communications that governments be allowed to run roughshod over a country's constitution and its people, but that is precisely the path America is upon, and there seems to be little to apprehend the runaway war machine.

As for the market reaction to the beating war drums - or, maybe more precisely, the market condition aside from them - stocks have taken a severe beating over the first two sessions of the final week of August, with the NASDAQ in freefall, taking its biggest loss of the year on Tuesday, while the Dow, NYSE Composite and S&P 500 continue to plunge well below their 50-day moving averages. Meanwhile, the WTI oil price has spiked to six-month highs, gold and silver have returned to their traditional status as safe havens and are experiencing a bull market, and the recent rise in interest rates has been temporarily reversed.

While it may be easy to blame "war tensions" for the recent price declines, there's much, much more to the story, including whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut back its bond buying program (tapering) in September, the upcoming budget and debt ceiling debates - also in September and October - a potential collapse of the Italian government, a slowdown in housing, continuing high unemployment and the effects of Obamacare on the entire labor and health care complex.

Indications are already in place that the markets are taking a severe turn, possibly signaling an end to the 54-month-long bull run since March 2009. The Dow has lost nearly 900 points this month alone, ending in the red 13 of its last 17 sessions. The advance-decline line continues to deteriorate, today reaching a level of more than 4:1 losers to winners, and new lows slammed new highs yet again, a continuing, troublesome trend.

Weeks and months ahead could well become a turning point for the country, though there's a strong sentiment that the federal government, deeply in bed with the Wall Street bankers and global elite will continue a glide path to insolvency, decimating the middle class from both sides, by the rapacious practices of the upper class ("one percenters") while keeping the dregs of society quelled with bread and circuses (food stamps and football).

America has reached a greater incline on the slippery slope to serfdom and tyranny. This is a dangerous time, and each American must examine his or her conscience and decide which course of action is best for themselves and their families. These will not be easy decisions, but momentous even in singularity. America is being ripped apart by the powers at the top and there may be no reasonable means of stopping the carnage already underway.

Unfolding events in Syria and the wider Middle East, along with the operational side of the federal government may present the nation with veritable breaking points and an irreversible trajectory.

Dow 14,776.13, -170.33 (1.14%)
NASDAQ 3,578.52, -79.05 (2.16%)
S&P 500 1,630.48, -26.30 (1.59%)
NYSE Composite 9,288.11, -144.40 (1.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,570,917,625
NYSE Volume 3,629,879,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1236-5415
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 43-106
WTI crude oil: 109.01, +3.09
Gold: 1,420.20, +27.10
Silver: 24.65, +0.641

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Sensational! Spectacular! WOW!

Finally, something to get excited about.

In case you missed it, US stock markets nearly collapsed wholesale on Tuesday.

Check out these figures:
Dow: 12,216.24, -416.02; NASDAQ: 2,407.86, -96.66; S&P 500: 1,399.04, -50.33

Like I said in the headline, WOW! But it wasn't as though we weren't warned. Just yesterday, right here, my headline read The Correction Has Begun. If my word wasn't enough of a warning to start taking those profits and paring losses, then maybe former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks to an economic conference in Hong Kong yesterday might have given us a clue that something was in the works.

And boy was it. This was telegraphed like a club boxer's left hook.

The fact of the matter is that today's response from, first, the Chinese stock market, then Europe's markets, and finally the US markets, was entirely well-organized and a classic prototype of blatant manipulation.

In the long run, it means little. The biggest hit in the US, on a percentage basis, was taken by the NASDAQ, which lost nearly 4% on the day. We'll survive. That stunner was, however, dwarfed by China's 9% decline, which, according to the so-called experts, was the real reason for US stocks to take a beating.

What utter hooey! If the Chinese economy stutters and stumbles, we should, as a nation, applaud long and loud. Maybe we can get a better deal on plasma TVs if they feel a little pain for a change. We're all in it together, though the US trade deficit and government overspending does play into the whole mess.

Our loose fiscal policies are the prime factors behind the whole worldwide bubble economy and we're mortgaged to the hilt. But if China takes a hit, should we worry? Maybe a little, since they hold our debt and could start calling it in or floating their currency - the yuan - a little higher, or both. But it certainly isn't the end of the world and nothing's really changed since yesterday, right?

Oh, no. That's where you would be wrong. This story by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker makes some very poignant and troubling claims about the state and nature and inner doings of our political leadership. I won't tip it off here, but leave it to you to read it for yourself.

Well, here's a clue. Hersh is the preeminent investigative reporter of our day. He broke the Iran-Contra story and he's been on to the shenanigans of the Bush administration from the start of the Iraq War. So, would the hoi poloi in the White House and on Wall Street and in London's City get a little bit twitchy if the leaders of the world's superpower were about to get a serious spanking by the media and maybe the Congress?

Here's the timeline:
Hersh's article hits the newsstands and the web on 2/25.
Greenspan warns of a US recession on 2/26.
China's markets implode, Europe and US markets follow on 2/27.

Welcome to the winter of our discontent. My advice: Watch for falling stocks... and politicians. Yesterday, I said the Dow should settle out in the 10,350 to 11,100 range. We've still got at least another 1100 points to go.