With little information upon which to base trading other than the recent dovish sentiments expressed by central banks, stocks in the US moved in a tight trading range to start the week.
The lack of volatility was something of a surprise, given that investors and speculators have been given the green light by Yellen and Co., though perhaps upon closer inspection, getting ahead of breakeven for the year has some of the more seasoned veteran traders taking a pause.
By just about any metric, stocks on the S&P and NASDAQ are highly overvalued, with most P/E estimates averaging in the low 20s on both exchanges. Dow Industrials are just a little less highly-valued, though some, such as Caterpillar (CAT) are showing severe signs of globalization stress.
CATs problems remain on the revenue side of the ledger, as the company hasn't met targets since the financial calamity of 2008. Global growth being as slow as it has been - and especially such in mining, infrastructure, and major construction, CATs bailiwick - the company is simply unable to deliver results like those during the housing and credit bubble.
That's largely the case for major industrial companies, which have weathered the storm via stock buybacks, close attention to labor levels, and an outright strike on capital improvements. While this short-term strategy may be worthwhile from quarter to quarter, in the long run, these companies have to get back to growing and maintaining their core business interests. Uncertainty - despite the easy credit conditions which are prevalent - concerning global monetary policy is keeping the lid on capital investment.
Worse yet, and this is not seen in any of the macro-metrics, is the paucity of new business development, either in the way of spin-offs or entrepreneurial endeavors. Small business, saddled by an onerous regulatory regime, high taxation and pressure on state legislatures to increase minimum wages, is stifling business formation.
These conditions cannot maintain for too long, lest the markets revolt, consumers retrench, and recession becomes reality.
Today's impish gains:
S&P 500: 2,051.60, +2.02 (0.10%)
Dow: 17,623.87, +21.57 (0.12%)
NASDAQ: 4,808.87, +13.23 (0.28%)
Crude Oil 41.68 +1.31% Gold 1,244.30 -0.80% EUR/USD 1.1245 -0.20% 10-Yr Bond 1.92 +2.78% Corn 369.00 +0.54% Copper 2.29 +0.31% Silver 15.86 +0.31% Natural Gas 1.82 -4.72% Russell 2000 1,098.58 -0.28% VIX 13.79 -1.64% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4373 -0.62% USD/JPY 111.8770 +0.34%
Monday, March 21, 2016
Sunday, March 20, 2016
Coordinated Central Bank Easing Leads to Higher Stock Prices
First came the BOJ.
Then the ECB.
And, just this past Wednesday, the Fed chimed into the global monetary easing chorus with no increase in the federal funds rate, and a solid statement that the FOMC would likely only increase rates twice in 2016, for a paltry 1/2 percent increase.
Such a move would put the rate at 0.75 to one percent by December of this year, or, put another way, just a touch lower than the Greenspan put of the early 2000s.
Those unfamiliar with recent history would not understand how Greenspan's easy rate policy led to various mal-investments, not the least of which were in the housing market, which led to a boom and then a bust and the 2008 financial crisis.
So, what the central bankers are telling us in a unified voice, is that they'll gladly take the risk of another massive financial implosion in order to keep the global fiat currency regime intact.
So far, they're doing quite well. There've been no mass protests, riots, or other noticeable social uprisings in the dominant economies of the developed nations, and, while detractors will proclaim that this regime of low (and even negative) interest rates cannot continue without devastating consequences, the world keeps spinning, the rich get richer and the rest of us carry on in quiet, medieval fashion, mumbling vaguely about unfairness and impropriety.
Elsewhere, stock owners are popping the champagne corks and drinking lustily from the font of the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, especially in the USA, which just completed one of the quickest and most violent market reversals in recorded history, bringing the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 back to breakeven for the year.
In just over a month's time, the Dow has rallied more than 2,000 points off the mid-February lows. The S&P took off from 1810.10 to close at 2049.58 on Friday, an impressive, 13.23% move. Who said timing wasn't everything?
Buy and hold will be the order of the day, it seems, as long as the central bankers retain complete control over every market, everywhere. When that changes, nobody knows, though many still try. The piper, it appears, will be paid at a later date, likely of the central banks' choosing.
For an overview of the central bank monetary madness, and possible preview of what's ahead, the Telegraph offers keen insight with:
Central banks are already doing the unthinkable -- you just don't know it.
For the week:
DOW: +388.99 (2.26%)
S&P 500: +27.39 (1.35%)
NASDAQ: +47.18 (0.99%)
Friday's Fun Fed Figures:
S&P 500: 2,049.58, +8.99 (0.44%)
Dow: 17,602.30, +120.81 (0.69%)
NASDAQ: 4,795.65, +20.66 (0.43%)
Crude Oil 41.13 -1.27% Gold 1,256.00 -0.71% EUR/USD 1.1268 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.8710 -1.68% Corn 366.50 -0.54% Copper 2.29 -0.28% Silver 15.82 -1.30% Natural Gas 1.89 -2.22% Russell 2000 1,101.67 +0.95% VIX 14.02 -2.91% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4471 -0.05% USD/JPY 111.5525 0.00%
Then the ECB.
And, just this past Wednesday, the Fed chimed into the global monetary easing chorus with no increase in the federal funds rate, and a solid statement that the FOMC would likely only increase rates twice in 2016, for a paltry 1/2 percent increase.
Such a move would put the rate at 0.75 to one percent by December of this year, or, put another way, just a touch lower than the Greenspan put of the early 2000s.
Those unfamiliar with recent history would not understand how Greenspan's easy rate policy led to various mal-investments, not the least of which were in the housing market, which led to a boom and then a bust and the 2008 financial crisis.
So, what the central bankers are telling us in a unified voice, is that they'll gladly take the risk of another massive financial implosion in order to keep the global fiat currency regime intact.
So far, they're doing quite well. There've been no mass protests, riots, or other noticeable social uprisings in the dominant economies of the developed nations, and, while detractors will proclaim that this regime of low (and even negative) interest rates cannot continue without devastating consequences, the world keeps spinning, the rich get richer and the rest of us carry on in quiet, medieval fashion, mumbling vaguely about unfairness and impropriety.
Elsewhere, stock owners are popping the champagne corks and drinking lustily from the font of the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, especially in the USA, which just completed one of the quickest and most violent market reversals in recorded history, bringing the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 back to breakeven for the year.
In just over a month's time, the Dow has rallied more than 2,000 points off the mid-February lows. The S&P took off from 1810.10 to close at 2049.58 on Friday, an impressive, 13.23% move. Who said timing wasn't everything?
Buy and hold will be the order of the day, it seems, as long as the central bankers retain complete control over every market, everywhere. When that changes, nobody knows, though many still try. The piper, it appears, will be paid at a later date, likely of the central banks' choosing.
For an overview of the central bank monetary madness, and possible preview of what's ahead, the Telegraph offers keen insight with:
Central banks are already doing the unthinkable -- you just don't know it.
For the week:
DOW: +388.99 (2.26%)
S&P 500: +27.39 (1.35%)
NASDAQ: +47.18 (0.99%)
Friday's Fun Fed Figures:
S&P 500: 2,049.58, +8.99 (0.44%)
Dow: 17,602.30, +120.81 (0.69%)
NASDAQ: 4,795.65, +20.66 (0.43%)
Crude Oil 41.13 -1.27% Gold 1,256.00 -0.71% EUR/USD 1.1268 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.8710 -1.68% Corn 366.50 -0.54% Copper 2.29 -0.28% Silver 15.82 -1.30% Natural Gas 1.89 -2.22% Russell 2000 1,101.67 +0.95% VIX 14.02 -2.91% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4471 -0.05% USD/JPY 111.5525 0.00%
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Dow Ends Day In Green for 2016
Call it the luck of the Irish, or maybe the magic of Janet Yellen's Fed, but the Dow Jones Industrials ended the day up large, and in the green for 2016. The S&P is just five points away from a positive close for the year.
The NASDAQ needs to get closer to 5000 for breakeven for the year.
That's it. Funny money.
Today's closing quotes:
S&P 500: 2,040.59, +13.37 (0.66%)
Dow: 17,481.49, +155.73 (0.90%)
NASDAQ: 4,774.99, +11.02 (0.23%)
Crude Oil 41.67 +4.17% Gold 1,258.60 +2.34% EUR/USD 1.1318 +0.94% 10-Yr Bond 1.9030 -1.81% Corn 367.75 -0.14% Copper 2.29 +2.44% Silver 15.94 +4.70% Natural Gas 1.93 +3.59% Russell 2000 1,091.25 +1.56% VIX 14.44 -3.67% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4473 +1.59% USD/JPY 111.3950 -1.23%
The NASDAQ needs to get closer to 5000 for breakeven for the year.
That's it. Funny money.
Today's closing quotes:
S&P 500: 2,040.59, +13.37 (0.66%)
Dow: 17,481.49, +155.73 (0.90%)
NASDAQ: 4,774.99, +11.02 (0.23%)
Crude Oil 41.67 +4.17% Gold 1,258.60 +2.34% EUR/USD 1.1318 +0.94% 10-Yr Bond 1.9030 -1.81% Corn 367.75 -0.14% Copper 2.29 +2.44% Silver 15.94 +4.70% Natural Gas 1.93 +3.59% Russell 2000 1,091.25 +1.56% VIX 14.44 -3.67% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4473 +1.59% USD/JPY 111.3950 -1.23%
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, Turns More Dovish; Wedbush: Stocks Crash If Trump Wins
Stock junkies got their fix on Wall Street today, as the FOMC not only kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 1/4 to 1/2%, but reversed course on their planned four rate hikes in 2016, reducing the outlook to two, which, in the nuanced parlance that can only come from crony central bankers, means one more rate hike in 2016, likely not until September, at the earliest.
Talking heads from the various analyst camps spoke of a potential June hike, though, judging from the Fed's past actions, later, rather than sooner, would be the more likely timing. With US general elections coming in November, the Fed - no longer an altruistic entity, but a purely political one - a September rate cut would produce maximum chaos, which is surely the ongoing plan.
Not to put too cynical a spin on it, but the Federal Reserve has become completely politicized under Janet Yellen, with plenty of assistance and guidance by the mother hens which dominate policy from the White House. Employing high-sounding verbiage and the trappings and aura of majesty, the Fed has managed to hypnotize global markets and US citizens with their incredible blend of experimental policy and garbled, mangled language.
What the Fed has accomplished is nothing more than a furtherance of the ongoing wealth transfer from the distressed middle and lower classes to the uber-wealthy, while shutting out innovation, creativity and entrepreneurial spirit.
In essence, they are the ultimate destroyer of the American economy via globalist intentions and actions.
With their latest salvo of lick-spittle jawboning, they perpetuate the counterfeit of the US dollar and the fraud on savers which began in earnest with the financial collapse in 2008-09.
Stock promoters couldn't be happier, sending the major indices to their highest points since early January. With no impediments standing between them and median price-earnings ratios approaching pre-1929 levels, stocks are poised to completely erase the losses incurred through the first six weeks of the year.
With today's close, the Dow and S&P are within one strong day of getting even for the annum; the NASDAQ has a little more work to do.
December 31, 2015 closing prices:
Dow: 17,425.03
S&P: 2,043.94
NASDAQ: 5,007.41
Today's Fed-jacking:
S&P 500: 2,027.22, +11.29 (0.56%)
Dow: 17,325.76, +74.23 (0.43%)
NASDAQ: 4,763.97, +35.30 (0.75%)
Crude Oil 38.49 +5.92% Gold 1,264.00 +2.68% EUR/USD 1.1227 +1.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.9380 -1.07% Corn 368.25 -0.07% Copper 2.25 +0.94% Silver 15.64 +2.48% Natural Gas 1.87 +0.97% Russell 2000 1,074.51 +0.74% VIX 14.99 -10.99% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.79% USD/JPY 112.5475 -0.53%
In what has to be the #1 hit piece on Donald Trump from the Wall Street crony capitalists - via Yahoo! and CNBC, Wedbush's director of equity sales, Ian Winer (shouldn't that be I'm a Whiner?) says stocks will crash 50% if Trump is elected president.
Here's a link to the article and video (and some easy comments), and if you just want the video, go here!
CNBC, the #1 financial bull--it network, doesn't want to mention that stocks should fall 50% anyhow, and the entire economy will be gutted if Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders wins the election.
https://screen.yahoo.com/trump-catastrophic-stocks-wedbush-214000793.html
One of the better comments, by commentator takebreathandthink:
Inquiring minds want to know why Mr. Winer didn't call for a 60% or 80% crash. After all, if you're going to trash someone, why go just halfway?
Vote Trump. Wall Street hates him.
Talking heads from the various analyst camps spoke of a potential June hike, though, judging from the Fed's past actions, later, rather than sooner, would be the more likely timing. With US general elections coming in November, the Fed - no longer an altruistic entity, but a purely political one - a September rate cut would produce maximum chaos, which is surely the ongoing plan.
Not to put too cynical a spin on it, but the Federal Reserve has become completely politicized under Janet Yellen, with plenty of assistance and guidance by the mother hens which dominate policy from the White House. Employing high-sounding verbiage and the trappings and aura of majesty, the Fed has managed to hypnotize global markets and US citizens with their incredible blend of experimental policy and garbled, mangled language.
What the Fed has accomplished is nothing more than a furtherance of the ongoing wealth transfer from the distressed middle and lower classes to the uber-wealthy, while shutting out innovation, creativity and entrepreneurial spirit.
In essence, they are the ultimate destroyer of the American economy via globalist intentions and actions.
With their latest salvo of lick-spittle jawboning, they perpetuate the counterfeit of the US dollar and the fraud on savers which began in earnest with the financial collapse in 2008-09.
Stock promoters couldn't be happier, sending the major indices to their highest points since early January. With no impediments standing between them and median price-earnings ratios approaching pre-1929 levels, stocks are poised to completely erase the losses incurred through the first six weeks of the year.
With today's close, the Dow and S&P are within one strong day of getting even for the annum; the NASDAQ has a little more work to do.
December 31, 2015 closing prices:
Dow: 17,425.03
S&P: 2,043.94
NASDAQ: 5,007.41
Today's Fed-jacking:
S&P 500: 2,027.22, +11.29 (0.56%)
Dow: 17,325.76, +74.23 (0.43%)
NASDAQ: 4,763.97, +35.30 (0.75%)
Crude Oil 38.49 +5.92% Gold 1,264.00 +2.68% EUR/USD 1.1227 +1.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.9380 -1.07% Corn 368.25 -0.07% Copper 2.25 +0.94% Silver 15.64 +2.48% Natural Gas 1.87 +0.97% Russell 2000 1,074.51 +0.74% VIX 14.99 -10.99% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.79% USD/JPY 112.5475 -0.53%
In what has to be the #1 hit piece on Donald Trump from the Wall Street crony capitalists - via Yahoo! and CNBC, Wedbush's director of equity sales, Ian Winer (shouldn't that be I'm a Whiner?) says stocks will crash 50% if Trump is elected president.
Here's a link to the article and video (and some easy comments), and if you just want the video, go here!
CNBC, the #1 financial bull--it network, doesn't want to mention that stocks should fall 50% anyhow, and the entire economy will be gutted if Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders wins the election.
https://screen.yahoo.com/trump-catastrophic-stocks-wedbush-214000793.html
One of the better comments, by commentator takebreathandthink:
It's true, the markets will crash 50%. Also, the seas will turn to blood, meteors will rain down from the heavens, swarms of locusts will kill all of the crops in the world, every volcano will erupt, earthquakes will rip apart the continents, and the first born of everyone in the world will die (thank God I'm the youngest in my family).
Inquiring minds want to know why Mr. Winer didn't call for a 60% or 80% crash. After all, if you're going to trash someone, why go just halfway?
Vote Trump. Wall Street hates him.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Markets Moribund Facing FOMC Meeting
Nothing matters except the Fed and the FOMC rate policy meeting which wraps up tomorrow.
At 2:00 pm EDT, something will happen, though the Fed is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
La-dee-da.
S&P 500: 2,015.93, -3.71 (0.18%)
Dow: 17,251.53, +22.40 (0.13%)
NASDAQ: 4,728.67, -21.61 (0.45%)
Crude Oil 36.53 -1.75% Gold 1,232.80 -0.99% EUR/USD 1.1119 +0.13% 10-Yr Bond 1.9590 -0.20% Corn 368.25 -0.14% Copper 2.24 -0.13% Silver 15.29 -1.49% Natural Gas 1.85 +1.65% Russell 2000 1,066.67 -1.62% VIX 16.84 -0.47% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4147 -1.08% USD/JPY 113.1630 -0.56%
At 2:00 pm EDT, something will happen, though the Fed is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
La-dee-da.
S&P 500: 2,015.93, -3.71 (0.18%)
Dow: 17,251.53, +22.40 (0.13%)
NASDAQ: 4,728.67, -21.61 (0.45%)
Crude Oil 36.53 -1.75% Gold 1,232.80 -0.99% EUR/USD 1.1119 +0.13% 10-Yr Bond 1.9590 -0.20% Corn 368.25 -0.14% Copper 2.24 -0.13% Silver 15.29 -1.49% Natural Gas 1.85 +1.65% Russell 2000 1,066.67 -1.62% VIX 16.84 -0.47% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4147 -1.08% USD/JPY 113.1630 -0.56%
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