It's Official!
Donald J. Trump is the 45th president of the United States of America.
And the markets apparently loved it. The Dow was up. The NASDAQ was up. The S&P 500 was up. So was the Composite, the Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Oil, the dollar. Call it a relief rally. Market participants were relieved that the uncertainties of the past two years of electioneering, mudslinging, maligning, and campaigning were at long last, over. At least now some people can get to work, least of all the new president, like him, loathe him, or feign indifference, he's safely ensconced within the White House walls, with nary a cut, scrape, bruise, or wound.
At least that's what we're seeing through the prism of the news media. There were more than a few bruised egos at the swearing in ceremony on the West steps of the Capitol, facing the Washington and Lincoln monuments, but, some of the more expansive egos were soon swept off the stage and sent packing. The Clintons and the Obamas were whisked into obscurity by the forces of change.
As for our new president, Mr. Trump promises to be, at the very least, entertaining, if not outrageous. While such antics as late-night tweeting and calling people names may not sit well with his establishment critics, the American public will likely relish the shift from the obfuscation, misinformation, and underhandedness which typified the last 16 years of presidential conduct to a more - on the surface - open, progressive (that's a real word, meaning a real effort toward getting things done, not the fancy adversarial adjective applied over the last two decades by liberals), and positive approach to government policy.
It is obviously too early to tell whether President Trump will usher in a new age of American exceptionalism, but there is little doubt that he will try his best to keep his promises and work untiringly toward restoration of traditional American vales. There's also little doubt that he will face significant opposition from the left, the right, his own party, the Democrat party, liberal wingnuts who will protest anything at the drop of a hat, foreign leaders, the Twitterati, Facebook foes, and just about anybody who has an opinion on anything, many of whom will appear regularly on the vicious, unencumbered media whores doing their dirty work for the forces of their paymasters.
That's just how it goes when you rise to the top of the heap as Donald Trump has done. There's always somebody looking to knock you off your mighty throne, literally or figuratively. As for our sentiments here at the Money Daily headquarters, we wish him all the best and will continue to support him - as we did throughout the election process - as best we can. If he can deliver on even half of his campaign promises that would be quite an accomplishment, but we'll settle for three big items:
1. Build the damn wall.
2. Repeal the Affordable Care Act (it does not have to be replaced; we already have too many insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies and government involved in health care and would like to see much of that overhead removed)
3. Send education back to the states. The nation is too large and diverse (sorry, but the word does have its place) for a "one-size-fits-all" approach. Besides, the federal intrusion into education has been about as successful as the war on drugs or the war on poverty. Cut the Department of Education in half, or by two thirds, or, preferably, obliterate it.
In the meantime, Money Daily will try to stay out of politics and into money and economics, but, seeing the President and his staffers occasionally and regularly knee-cap the media whores wouldn't meet with any resistance from these parts.
Let the politicians do the dirty work. We'll aim to interpret the effects.
Let's start with a look down below at the weekly results. All four of the major indices were lower on the week, and that may be significant, but will be more so if that becomes a trend. The next two weeks are almost certain to be wild ones in terms of politicking and figurative bomb-throwing from the left, the right, and everywhere in between, but, if stocks continue to deteriorate (which happens to be our best guess for now), it's going to put more pressure on the new president. Not that he should do anything about it since he has no control of financial markets, but the media will crow endlessly about how the economy is going into the tank under the Trump administration.
We'll leave it there, for now. It's going to get a whole lot more interesting in coming weeks and months.
At The Close 1.20.17:
Dow: 19,827.25, +94.85 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 5,555.33, +15.25 (0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,271.31, +7.62 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 11,192.79, +43.94 (0.39%)
For the Week Ended 1.20.17:
Dow: -58.48 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: -18.78 (-0.34%)
S&P 500: -3.33 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: -34.38 (-0.31)
Sunday, January 22, 2017
Thursday, January 19, 2017
Globalism Is Dead And Dying At Davos
As the world prepares for a new American era to begin with the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as the 45th president of the United States, the global elites are gathered at Davos to interpret the condition of the world economy.
Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University spoke briefly at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, saying,
If one were living in a rural area in America, or India, or the Congo, even, the effects of global initiatives like those espoused and implemented by the people at Davos would be minimal, at best. One would still water plants, feed livestock, wash eggs, and perform all the other chores of a minimal farming/subsistence lifestyle. Mr. Goldin, being of the elitist character, has virtually no concept of digging holes for posts, erecting fences, germinating seed, slaughtering hogs, gathering chicken eggs daily, and so on. He's about as disconnected from the reality of everyday life as one could possibly be, viewing the world from his ivory tower at Oxford as he glances up briefly from his reading of some other obviously clueless professor emeritus or other "authority" whose mantra to which he subscribes.
Therefore, as we've seen in the Brexit movement and the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States of America, the globalist agenda is dead in the water, disconnected and disintegrating. The annual fete at Davos - through the media filter, at least - gives everyone an opportunity to see firsthand just how audaciously and vigorously the gathered elitists continue to promote their agendas. Liberalism, diversity, and globalism are all joined together into a kind of religion of the rich and powerful, but, the masses need not adhere to what is looking increasingly like failed policy.
If globalism has taken thirty or forty years to expand itself into monstrosities such as the European Union, the Arab Spring, and unadulterated acceptance of gay marriage, it's likely going to take an equal amount of time to dismantle its various parts and replace them with more stable value systems. As the globalists retreat from their worn-out traditions and values, popular uprisings will accelerate the decline. It starts, as do all major moral or political or economic upheavals, on the fringes of society, in the hinterlands, so to speak, before spreading to all ranges of the spectrum, from old to young, from the countryside to the cityscape.
We are at the beginning of a new age, one which promises the demise of authority at all levels from local to supranational and more freedom for the working classes and ordinary citizens.
On cue, one day before the actual inauguration of the man all the "experts" said had no chance of winning, Donald Trump, world markets continued a dizzy dance of denial and suspense, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which spasmodically descended today to a point below where it began the year, closing at its lowest level since Decemeber 30 of last year (19,732.40, -72.32 (-0.37%)).
Though the drop in percentage terms was hardly sensational, the level is of more immediate concern. Since December 12, the intraday level never fell below 19,718, the mark made on the final day of trading for 2016, December 30.
While broader indices, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, retained a positive tilt for 2017, it has been the Dow that garnered the most attention of late, especially over its historic (failed) attempt to crack the 20,000 level.
With Trump taking the oath of office at noon tomorrow, the question on every trader's mind is how the markets will respond. With a whimper or a yawn, or might the Dow set aim again for an historic close?
At The Close 1.19.16:
Dow 19,732.40, -72.32 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 5,540.08, -15.57 (-0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,263.69, -8.20 (-0.36%)
NYSE Composite: 11,151.69, -44.41 (-0.40%)
Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University spoke briefly at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, saying,
“You can’t stop managing an entangled environment by disconnecting. This is the fundamental mistake of Brexit, of Trump, and of so many others. We are not simply connected. We are entangled. Our lives, our destinies are intertwined. What happens in China, what happens in Indonesia, what happens in India, what happens across Europe, and what happens in North America, across Africa and Latin America will affect all of us in dramatic new ways. The idea that somehow we can forge our future in an insular way, even for the biggest countries like the U.S., is a fantasy.”Obviously, Mr. Goldin has been smoking too much of what he's been growing over the past couple of decades. To put it into a more precise perspective, Mr. Goldin kneels at the altar of globalization, thus, he's unprepared to express or even admit that there's any other opinion or world view than the one he personally promotes.
If one were living in a rural area in America, or India, or the Congo, even, the effects of global initiatives like those espoused and implemented by the people at Davos would be minimal, at best. One would still water plants, feed livestock, wash eggs, and perform all the other chores of a minimal farming/subsistence lifestyle. Mr. Goldin, being of the elitist character, has virtually no concept of digging holes for posts, erecting fences, germinating seed, slaughtering hogs, gathering chicken eggs daily, and so on. He's about as disconnected from the reality of everyday life as one could possibly be, viewing the world from his ivory tower at Oxford as he glances up briefly from his reading of some other obviously clueless professor emeritus or other "authority" whose mantra to which he subscribes.
Therefore, as we've seen in the Brexit movement and the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States of America, the globalist agenda is dead in the water, disconnected and disintegrating. The annual fete at Davos - through the media filter, at least - gives everyone an opportunity to see firsthand just how audaciously and vigorously the gathered elitists continue to promote their agendas. Liberalism, diversity, and globalism are all joined together into a kind of religion of the rich and powerful, but, the masses need not adhere to what is looking increasingly like failed policy.
If globalism has taken thirty or forty years to expand itself into monstrosities such as the European Union, the Arab Spring, and unadulterated acceptance of gay marriage, it's likely going to take an equal amount of time to dismantle its various parts and replace them with more stable value systems. As the globalists retreat from their worn-out traditions and values, popular uprisings will accelerate the decline. It starts, as do all major moral or political or economic upheavals, on the fringes of society, in the hinterlands, so to speak, before spreading to all ranges of the spectrum, from old to young, from the countryside to the cityscape.
We are at the beginning of a new age, one which promises the demise of authority at all levels from local to supranational and more freedom for the working classes and ordinary citizens.
On cue, one day before the actual inauguration of the man all the "experts" said had no chance of winning, Donald Trump, world markets continued a dizzy dance of denial and suspense, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which spasmodically descended today to a point below where it began the year, closing at its lowest level since Decemeber 30 of last year (19,732.40, -72.32 (-0.37%)).
Though the drop in percentage terms was hardly sensational, the level is of more immediate concern. Since December 12, the intraday level never fell below 19,718, the mark made on the final day of trading for 2016, December 30.
While broader indices, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, retained a positive tilt for 2017, it has been the Dow that garnered the most attention of late, especially over its historic (failed) attempt to crack the 20,000 level.
With Trump taking the oath of office at noon tomorrow, the question on every trader's mind is how the markets will respond. With a whimper or a yawn, or might the Dow set aim again for an historic close?
At The Close 1.19.16:
Dow 19,732.40, -72.32 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 5,540.08, -15.57 (-0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,263.69, -8.20 (-0.36%)
NYSE Composite: 11,151.69, -44.41 (-0.40%)
Wednesday, January 18, 2017
Risk On - Risk Off Roller Coaster Is Expected In The Age Of Trump
Get used to volatility in the age of Trump.
Markets - especially stocks and bonds - are more than likely to correct and enter bear territory during Trump's administration. The bond bubble has been extended beyond its "use by" date and the stock rally since 2009 has been nothing short of miraculous, if one considers the creation of 11 trillion dollars (probably more) out of thin air to be the stuff of miracles.
Stocks and bonds are both overvalued, thus, we should experience a 10-year note at 3.0% or higher at some point in the near future, and stocks reversing course due to the competition and relative safety of bonds. Trump's policies are likely to exacerbate the condition of extreme overvaluation which will manifest itself in wild swings. He'll certainly get much needed help from the Fed, whose stated aim is to impose a regime of never-ending inflation.
Problem is, there are major distortions in the US and global economy, mostly the overhang from doing nothing to fix the issues of 2008 (actual bank failures). Let's see interest rates rise, stocks fall and somehow, inflation? A dubious argument at best.
Deflation is the friend of the frugal and that's what's coming. With less capital to blow on hookers and blow, the thrift-loving Americans in the heartland (forget the cesspool cities, they're toast) will benefit from all manner of liquidations and fire sales. It's a transfer of wealth from rich to poor and urban to rural that is long overdue. Most of the debt is tied to cities, not arable land and/or hunting/wilderness/undeveloped/underdeveloped properties.
One can get a unique impression from living in one of America's poorer areas, such as rural upstate New York, but you know what? Some people are thriving, those being land owners, farmers, growers, people with roadside stands, trade specialties, mechanical abilities and low overhead. It's pretty basic stuff, but large swaths of rural America are going to be very affordable and desirable. The cites, not so much. Pain for some, gain for others. The survivalist mentality had it right all along and will be proven winners in coming months and years.
As for today, two days before Mr. Trump assumes the office of president, markets were roiled again, lurching from one idea to another, up, then down, then sideways. European stocks were higher, WTI crude oil got smashed early but rebounded. Gold was flat, then lower; silver, always the outlier, hit its best level in a month, ended the day in New York down on the session, and has been trending higher into the inauguration, but options and futures settlements are closing fast (26th and 27th of January).
Mostly, stocks tread water and didn't offer much in the way of direction though by now, unless reading charts is grossly overrated, it's apparent that the Trump rally has run its course and Dow 20,000 is a fleeting memory.
At The Close 1.18.16:
Dow: 19,804.72, -22.05 (-0.11%)
NASDAQ: 5,555.65, +16.93 (0.31%)
S&P 500: 2,271.89, +4.00 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,196.11, -0.18 (-0.00%)
Markets - especially stocks and bonds - are more than likely to correct and enter bear territory during Trump's administration. The bond bubble has been extended beyond its "use by" date and the stock rally since 2009 has been nothing short of miraculous, if one considers the creation of 11 trillion dollars (probably more) out of thin air to be the stuff of miracles.
Stocks and bonds are both overvalued, thus, we should experience a 10-year note at 3.0% or higher at some point in the near future, and stocks reversing course due to the competition and relative safety of bonds. Trump's policies are likely to exacerbate the condition of extreme overvaluation which will manifest itself in wild swings. He'll certainly get much needed help from the Fed, whose stated aim is to impose a regime of never-ending inflation.
Problem is, there are major distortions in the US and global economy, mostly the overhang from doing nothing to fix the issues of 2008 (actual bank failures). Let's see interest rates rise, stocks fall and somehow, inflation? A dubious argument at best.
Deflation is the friend of the frugal and that's what's coming. With less capital to blow on hookers and blow, the thrift-loving Americans in the heartland (forget the cesspool cities, they're toast) will benefit from all manner of liquidations and fire sales. It's a transfer of wealth from rich to poor and urban to rural that is long overdue. Most of the debt is tied to cities, not arable land and/or hunting/wilderness/undeveloped/underdeveloped properties.
One can get a unique impression from living in one of America's poorer areas, such as rural upstate New York, but you know what? Some people are thriving, those being land owners, farmers, growers, people with roadside stands, trade specialties, mechanical abilities and low overhead. It's pretty basic stuff, but large swaths of rural America are going to be very affordable and desirable. The cites, not so much. Pain for some, gain for others. The survivalist mentality had it right all along and will be proven winners in coming months and years.
As for today, two days before Mr. Trump assumes the office of president, markets were roiled again, lurching from one idea to another, up, then down, then sideways. European stocks were higher, WTI crude oil got smashed early but rebounded. Gold was flat, then lower; silver, always the outlier, hit its best level in a month, ended the day in New York down on the session, and has been trending higher into the inauguration, but options and futures settlements are closing fast (26th and 27th of January).
Mostly, stocks tread water and didn't offer much in the way of direction though by now, unless reading charts is grossly overrated, it's apparent that the Trump rally has run its course and Dow 20,000 is a fleeting memory.
At The Close 1.18.16:
Dow: 19,804.72, -22.05 (-0.11%)
NASDAQ: 5,555.65, +16.93 (0.31%)
S&P 500: 2,271.89, +4.00 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,196.11, -0.18 (-0.00%)
Tuesday, January 17, 2017
Donald Trump Moves Markets; Hugo Salinas Price Details Decline In International Reserves
It was back to work on Tuesday for US speculators, and the mood was gloomy as president-elect Donald Trump quipped that the "dollar is too strong," which sent world markets into a wild frenzy.
Asian and European markets had already been upset on Monday, while the US rested for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, but on Trump's vocalizing of displeasure, US markets took it to heart.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average backed away from the formerly-attainable 20,000 mark, down 110 points on Monday before a late rally slashed the losses in half.
It is apparent that the euphoria over Trump has faded significantly and American investors are heading for safer shores, mostly in bonds and cash, though precious metals may have even more appeal with gold and silver both making new highs for the year on significant gains. Spot silver stood at 17.175 and gold at 1216.70 at the close of trading in New York, but the rally may be just beginning to heat up.
Hugo Salinas Price makes important notice of the abrupt decline in international reserves. Of all the reports on matters economic, his may be the most acute and insightful. It's a must read and should be given careful consideration due to Mr. Price's status among economic thinkers.
At the Close 1.17.16:
Dow: 19,826.77, -58.96 (-0.30%)
NASDAQ: 5,538.73, -35.39 (-0.63%)
S&P 500: 2,267.89, -6.75 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 11,190.76, -36.41 (-0.32%)
Asian and European markets had already been upset on Monday, while the US rested for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, but on Trump's vocalizing of displeasure, US markets took it to heart.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average backed away from the formerly-attainable 20,000 mark, down 110 points on Monday before a late rally slashed the losses in half.
It is apparent that the euphoria over Trump has faded significantly and American investors are heading for safer shores, mostly in bonds and cash, though precious metals may have even more appeal with gold and silver both making new highs for the year on significant gains. Spot silver stood at 17.175 and gold at 1216.70 at the close of trading in New York, but the rally may be just beginning to heat up.
Hugo Salinas Price makes important notice of the abrupt decline in international reserves. Of all the reports on matters economic, his may be the most acute and insightful. It's a must read and should be given careful consideration due to Mr. Price's status among economic thinkers.
At the Close 1.17.16:
Dow: 19,826.77, -58.96 (-0.30%)
NASDAQ: 5,538.73, -35.39 (-0.63%)
S&P 500: 2,267.89, -6.75 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 11,190.76, -36.41 (-0.32%)
Saturday, January 14, 2017
NASDAQ Posts Seventh Record Of 2017; Dow Flat; Gold Outperforming All Other Assets
As America lurches toward inauguration day (Jan. 20), stocks remain a mixed bag.
The Dow ended the week with a small loss on Friday as the NASDAQ rose to another record close, its seventh this year.
For the week, the NAZ was up nearly one percent. The Dow's loss was minor, at less than one half percent (-0.39%), but the broader S&P and NYSE composite suffered almost no depreciation.
Overall, it was fairly uneventful in markets, which is odd, given the cross-currents blowing through the political and economic spectrum.
Next week, with the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as America's 45th president putting a final glow on the proceedings, promises to be a more volatile period, shortened by one day, as markets are idle for Monday's Martin Luther King holiday.
Ominously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains positioned below the expected 20,000 level but has been flat as a pancake for the past four weeks.
WTI crude oil remains mired in the mid-fifties, while gold, the year's best-performing asset thus far, pierced the 1200/oz. mark on Friday but fell off and closed at 1196.90 the ounce.
At The Close 1.13.16:
Dow: 19,885.73, -5.27 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 5,574.12, +26.63 (0.48%)
S&P 500: 2,274.64, +4.20 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,227.17, +23.02 (0.21%)
Week Ending 1.13.16:
Dow: -78.07 (-0.39%)
NASDAQ: +53.06 (0.96%)
S&P 500: -2.34 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: -10.45 (-0.09%)
The Dow ended the week with a small loss on Friday as the NASDAQ rose to another record close, its seventh this year.
For the week, the NAZ was up nearly one percent. The Dow's loss was minor, at less than one half percent (-0.39%), but the broader S&P and NYSE composite suffered almost no depreciation.
Overall, it was fairly uneventful in markets, which is odd, given the cross-currents blowing through the political and economic spectrum.
Next week, with the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as America's 45th president putting a final glow on the proceedings, promises to be a more volatile period, shortened by one day, as markets are idle for Monday's Martin Luther King holiday.
Ominously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains positioned below the expected 20,000 level but has been flat as a pancake for the past four weeks.
WTI crude oil remains mired in the mid-fifties, while gold, the year's best-performing asset thus far, pierced the 1200/oz. mark on Friday but fell off and closed at 1196.90 the ounce.
At The Close 1.13.16:
Dow: 19,885.73, -5.27 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 5,574.12, +26.63 (0.48%)
S&P 500: 2,274.64, +4.20 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,227.17, +23.02 (0.21%)
Week Ending 1.13.16:
Dow: -78.07 (-0.39%)
NASDAQ: +53.06 (0.96%)
S&P 500: -2.34 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: -10.45 (-0.09%)
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