Friday, January 27, 2017

Dow Higher, All Other Indices Lower?

“If you owe your bank manager a thousand pounds, you are at his mercy. If you owe him a million pounds, he is at your mercy.”
― John Maynard Keynes

If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.
-- J. Paul Getty

At The Close 1.26.17:
Dow: 20,100.91, +32.40 (0.16%)
NASDAQ: 5,655.18, -1.16 (-0.02%)
S&P 500: 2,296.68, -1.69 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 11,313.13, -25.92 (-0.23%)

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

At Last! Dow Shatters 20,000 Mark; S&P 500, NASDAQ Also At Record Highs

No comment necessary since the topic of the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking beyond 20,000 has been predicted, speculated upon, and beaten to death for more than a month running.

Incidentally, the S&P and NASDAQ also closed at record all-time highs.

The only question: will it hold?

Those of us who remember Dow 10,000 may recall that level being crossed some 57 times before finally moving on, so some back-and-forth is to be expected.

At the Close 1.25.17:
Dow: 20,068.51, +155.80 (0.78%)
NASDAQ: 5,656.34, +55.38 (0.99%)
S&P 500: 2,298.37, +18.30 (0.80%)
NYSE Composite: 11,342.70, +93.42 (0.83%)

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Yo-yo Stock Trading Continues; Dow Trading In Worst Rut Of 115 Years

Spurred by Democrat proposals for a $1 Trillion infrastructure spending bill, stocks took the high road, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ each making new all-time highs. As has been the case of late, the Dow Industrials proved the laggards, not making new highs, but once again closing in on the mythical 20,000 level.

The Dow is now in a trading rut that happens to be the longest, smallest trading range since 1990. That's a long time, so it's going to break one way or the other. Tomorrow may prove to be the day it goes over 20,000, or not. As long as President Trump and congress continue to lay groundwork on a vast variety of programs and possible legislative agendas, the stock markets (which, as we've been told, hate uncertainty) will likely continue to bob and weave like lightweights.

The move higher today for the indices was led by basic material and energy stocks, in sympathy for President Trump's executive action to resume work on the troubled Keystone pipeline, a project that figures to be bullish for companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Still, since mid-December, the Dow has gone... nowhere, a condition that should not be able to persist much longer.

Or can it?

At the Close 1.24.17:
Dow: 19,912.71, +112.86 (0.57%)
NASDAQ: 5,600.96, +48.01 (0.86%)
S&P 500: 2,280.07, +14.87 (0.66%)
NYSE Composite: 11,249.29, +78.67 (0.70%)

Monday, January 23, 2017

Trump Presidency Day One Sends Stocks Lower; Bonds, Precious Metals Up

Recall how everything was up on Friday, the day Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th president of the United States?

Maybe it was a sugar high, market enthusiasm over the new faces in Washington, or just plain old vanilla speculation. Whatever it was, it certainly faded fast, as Monday, Trump's first full weekday as president saw markets getting closer and closer to a point of no return, at one point near midday having erased all of Friday's gains.

Fortunately for those of the bullish persuasion stocks held their own and finished with only minor losses. Oil was lower as well, though only marginally. In their places were some of the usual suspects from the other side of the trade; gold, silver, bonds, all rallied nicely. Gold continues to be the top asset performer for 2017, a welcome respite after three years of declines and a 2016 that saw it bounce nicely higher in the firt half of the year only to give back those gains in the second half, like a football team with a tiring defense.

As for the new president, he was busy. In the morning, President Trump met with business leaders and told them he'd like to roll back as much as 75% of existing regulations, most of them causing unnecessary reporting and tax burdens on businesses of all sizes.

Trump also signed three executive orders. One imposes a federal hiring freeze on all departments except the military, another pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and the third re-imposed the so-called Mexico City Policy, outlawing funding of international organizations which promote abortion.

Previously, on Friday, when the President finally made his way to the Oval Office, he kept a campaign promise by signing an executive order that directs federal agencies to ease the “regulatory burdens” of ObamaCare. It orders agencies to “waive, defer, grant exemptions from, or delay the implementation of any provision or requirement” of ObamaCare that imposes a “fiscal burden on any State or a cost, fee, tax, penalty, or regulatory burden on individuals, families, healthcare providers, health insurers, patients, recipients of healthcare services, purchasers of health insurance, or makers of medical devices, products, or medications.”

One would think that the order covered just about everything, making ObamaCare a ruined piece of legislation, soon to be formally repealed.

There was also movement on clearing the way for confirmation of any number of the President's cabinet choices and more speculation on whether the congress would approve a tax overhaul suggested by Trump during the campaign. The changes are still off in the distance, but congress should be getting on with it as soon as the foot-dragging over cabinet nominees ends.

Use the calculator below to see how Trump's tax plan would affect you:

At The Close 1.23.17:
Dow: 19,799.85, -27.40 (-0.14%)
NASDAQ: 5,552.94, -2.39 (-0.04%)
S&P 500: 2,265.20, -6.11 (-0.27%)
NYSE Composite: 11,170.63, -22.16 (-0.20%)

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Best Wishes To President Trump; The Wall, Obamacare, Education

It's Official!

Donald J. Trump is the 45th president of the United States of America.

And the markets apparently loved it. The Dow was up. The NASDAQ was up. The S&P 500 was up. So was the Composite, the Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Oil, the dollar. Call it a relief rally. Market participants were relieved that the uncertainties of the past two years of electioneering, mudslinging, maligning, and campaigning were at long last, over. At least now some people can get to work, least of all the new president, like him, loathe him, or feign indifference, he's safely ensconced within the White House walls, with nary a cut, scrape, bruise, or wound.

At least that's what we're seeing through the prism of the news media. There were more than a few bruised egos at the swearing in ceremony on the West steps of the Capitol, facing the Washington and Lincoln monuments, but, some of the more expansive egos were soon swept off the stage and sent packing. The Clintons and the Obamas were whisked into obscurity by the forces of change.

As for our new president, Mr. Trump promises to be, at the very least, entertaining, if not outrageous. While such antics as late-night tweeting and calling people names may not sit well with his establishment critics, the American public will likely relish the shift from the obfuscation, misinformation, and underhandedness which typified the last 16 years of presidential conduct to a more - on the surface - open, progressive (that's a real word, meaning a real effort toward getting things done, not the fancy adversarial adjective applied over the last two decades by liberals), and positive approach to government policy.

It is obviously too early to tell whether President Trump will usher in a new age of American exceptionalism, but there is little doubt that he will try his best to keep his promises and work untiringly toward restoration of traditional American vales. There's also little doubt that he will face significant opposition from the left, the right, his own party, the Democrat party, liberal wingnuts who will protest anything at the drop of a hat, foreign leaders, the Twitterati, Facebook foes, and just about anybody who has an opinion on anything, many of whom will appear regularly on the vicious, unencumbered media whores doing their dirty work for the forces of their paymasters.

That's just how it goes when you rise to the top of the heap as Donald Trump has done. There's always somebody looking to knock you off your mighty throne, literally or figuratively. As for our sentiments here at the Money Daily headquarters, we wish him all the best and will continue to support him - as we did throughout the election process - as best we can. If he can deliver on even half of his campaign promises that would be quite an accomplishment, but we'll settle for three big items:

1. Build the damn wall.
2. Repeal the Affordable Care Act (it does not have to be replaced; we already have too many insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies and government involved in health care and would like to see much of that overhead removed)
3. Send education back to the states. The nation is too large and diverse (sorry, but the word does have its place) for a "one-size-fits-all" approach. Besides, the federal intrusion into education has been about as successful as the war on drugs or the war on poverty. Cut the Department of Education in half, or by two thirds, or, preferably, obliterate it.

In the meantime, Money Daily will try to stay out of politics and into money and economics, but, seeing the President and his staffers occasionally and regularly knee-cap the media whores wouldn't meet with any resistance from these parts.

Let the politicians do the dirty work. We'll aim to interpret the effects.

Let's start with a look down below at the weekly results. All four of the major indices were lower on the week, and that may be significant, but will be more so if that becomes a trend. The next two weeks are almost certain to be wild ones in terms of politicking and figurative bomb-throwing from the left, the right, and everywhere in between, but, if stocks continue to deteriorate (which happens to be our best guess for now), it's going to put more pressure on the new president. Not that he should do anything about it since he has no control of financial markets, but the media will crow endlessly about how the economy is going into the tank under the Trump administration.

We'll leave it there, for now. It's going to get a whole lot more interesting in coming weeks and months.

At The Close 1.20.17:
Dow: 19,827.25, +94.85 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 5,555.33, +15.25 (0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,271.31, +7.62 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 11,192.79, +43.94 (0.39%)

For the Week Ended 1.20.17:
Dow: -58.48 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: -18.78 (-0.34%)
S&P 500: -3.33 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: -34.38 (-0.31)