After Thursday's all-around rout, traders entered Friday's session with apprehension and doubt, pondering whether the recovery facade had finally been broken, exposing the wickedly overpriced nature of global equites, and especially US stocks.
After a sluggish start to trading, stocks eventually turned positive midday, but failed to keep an even keel as the major indices fell in unison for the second consecutive day, ending the week on an ominous note.
While Friday's losses were nothing compared to those from the day prior, they were, nevertheless, a continuation of the downdraft since last week's North Korea scare sent stocks well below their prior highs and, in the case of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, below their 50-day moving averages.
In addition to the uniformity of the declines, stocks spent their second straight week on the downside for only the fourth time since the election of Donald Trump as president.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been the leader in the gains for the year, finished just above its 50-dma, the signs of slowing clearly evident.
With earnings reports from the second quarter winding down, analysts and traders will be focused on economic data, which has been - for years - less than stellar. Also of concern is the Federal Reserve's stance on tightening credit and unwinding their massive balance sheet, at the same time congress and the president will be engaging in budget and debt ceiling wrangling, making for a September to remember.
Still not an absolute trend - stocks are generally down only 2-3% the past two weeks - there will eventually come a time when the long bull run since March, 2009 will come to an end, and it figures not be be pretty. Anyone with short-term views will be taken aback at any sign of decay in the financial system, though, for those old enough and wizened enough to understand past history and general economics, a general pullback will be nothing more than the ordinariness of the business cycle, this one interrupted by the machinations and experimental policies of the global central bank cartel, led the the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the People's Bank of China (PBOC), which together have stuffed more than $16 trillion onto their collective balance sheets.
Unwinding this massive spending spree without collateral damage will be a monumental task, even for those empowered to oversee the world's financial order.
Fireworks are coming. Stock up on adult beverages and snacks.
At the Close, Friday, August 18, 2017:
Dow: 21,674.51, -76.22 (-0.35%)
NASDAQ: 6,216.53, -5.39 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 2,425.55, -4.46 (-0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,699.83, -12.88 (-0.11%)
For the Week:
Dow: -183.81 (-0.84%)
NASDAQ: -40.03 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: -15.77 (-0.65%)
NYSE Composite: -63.38 (-0.54%)
Saturday, August 19, 2017
Thursday, August 17, 2017
Stocks Wracked On Poor Industrial Production Data, Led by Lower Auto Sales
When the opening bell rang today on Wall Street, there wasn't realistically any cause for alarm, except the data on Industrial Production, which rose 0.2% on expectations of 0.3%, driven lower on a 3.6% drop in the automotive sector.
Car sales have slowed sharply from the record pace in 2016. Production of motor vehicles and parts has fallen in five months this year, and have dropped five percent in the latest 12 months.
That may have been cause for alarm, though not to the extent to which the major indices took it. Stocks had their worst session overall since mid-March, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ falling below support at their respective 50-day moving averages.
Bond yields were slashed as investors rushed out of equities to the safety of credit. The 10-year note closed the day with a 2.18 handle and the 30-year bond the lowest in a week, at 2.78%.
Oil caught a weak-hand bid, pushing above $47/barrel, but not holding that level. Gold and silver, which had been bid up in prior sessions, held onto gains.
This is the second major loss in the last six session, which, if one is inclined to be seeking trends, could be one to watch. On the other hand, with the Fed having the market's back, continued weakness is considered unlikely.
It has been said that Wall Street is more of a casino than ever before. The past six or seven sessions are proving that the house doesn't always win.
At the Close, Thursday, August 17, 2017
Dow: 21,750.73, -274.14 (-1.24%)
NASDAQ 6,221.91, -123.19 (-1.94%)
S&P 500 2,430.01, -38.10 (-1.54%)
NYSE Composite: 11,712.72, -156.13 (-1.32%)
Car sales have slowed sharply from the record pace in 2016. Production of motor vehicles and parts has fallen in five months this year, and have dropped five percent in the latest 12 months.
That may have been cause for alarm, though not to the extent to which the major indices took it. Stocks had their worst session overall since mid-March, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ falling below support at their respective 50-day moving averages.
Bond yields were slashed as investors rushed out of equities to the safety of credit. The 10-year note closed the day with a 2.18 handle and the 30-year bond the lowest in a week, at 2.78%.
Oil caught a weak-hand bid, pushing above $47/barrel, but not holding that level. Gold and silver, which had been bid up in prior sessions, held onto gains.
This is the second major loss in the last six session, which, if one is inclined to be seeking trends, could be one to watch. On the other hand, with the Fed having the market's back, continued weakness is considered unlikely.
It has been said that Wall Street is more of a casino than ever before. The past six or seven sessions are proving that the house doesn't always win.
At the Close, Thursday, August 17, 2017
Dow: 21,750.73, -274.14 (-1.24%)
NASDAQ 6,221.91, -123.19 (-1.94%)
S&P 500 2,430.01, -38.10 (-1.54%)
NYSE Composite: 11,712.72, -156.13 (-1.32%)
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
How to Make $10,000 in Six Hours Before FOMC Minutes Are Released
It helps to be an insider on Wall Street if you expect to make big money.
Just as a for instance, take the trade in gold today prior to the Fed releasing the FOMC minutes from July at 2:00 pm ET.
At 8:00 am ET, gold was sitting right around $1270 per troy ounce. Six hours later, prior to the release of the FOMC minutes, it was at $1280 or above.
If one was so inclined, one could have placed a futures bid at 8:00 am and sold it at 2:00 pm, for a profit of $10 per troy ounce. Since futures are dealt with in lots of 100s, one would have had to made the order for 100 futures contracts. It would have cost a fraction of the actual value of the gold involved, but, upon selling, the profits would have netted somewhere in the neighborhood of $10,000, less commissions, which, as an insider, would be minimal.
Also, as an insider, one could probably have bought the futures via a margin account, thus putting up even less actual money.
Nice way to make a living, you say?
Well, if the Fed is nothing more than a stealth conduit for the wealthy and well-connected, it would surprise nobody if the contents of the FOMC minutes were leaked or casually mentioned in private conversation.
That's how corrupted markets work, and there's nothing more corrupted than the gold and silver futures markets, except maybe, the US equity markets.
What was discovered - among many views and opinions - in the FOMC minutes was that various members expressed a need to tighten policy, in other words, raise rates and/or roll off some of the excessive assets held by the Federal Reserve.
Roughly the same trade could have been made in various commodities, especially by being on the short side in WTI crude oil futures, or stocks, or by going long bonds. The Dow was up 87 points early in the day before reversing - well before the FOMC minutes release - finally closing just short of 26 points to the upside.
It is a nice way to make a living, especially when one has friends in high places.
At the Close, Wednesday, August 16, 2017:
Dow: 22,024.87, +25.88 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ 6,345.11, +12.10 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 2,468.11, +3.50 (+0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 11,865.33, +21.85 (+0.18%)
Just as a for instance, take the trade in gold today prior to the Fed releasing the FOMC minutes from July at 2:00 pm ET.
At 8:00 am ET, gold was sitting right around $1270 per troy ounce. Six hours later, prior to the release of the FOMC minutes, it was at $1280 or above.
If one was so inclined, one could have placed a futures bid at 8:00 am and sold it at 2:00 pm, for a profit of $10 per troy ounce. Since futures are dealt with in lots of 100s, one would have had to made the order for 100 futures contracts. It would have cost a fraction of the actual value of the gold involved, but, upon selling, the profits would have netted somewhere in the neighborhood of $10,000, less commissions, which, as an insider, would be minimal.
Also, as an insider, one could probably have bought the futures via a margin account, thus putting up even less actual money.
Nice way to make a living, you say?
Well, if the Fed is nothing more than a stealth conduit for the wealthy and well-connected, it would surprise nobody if the contents of the FOMC minutes were leaked or casually mentioned in private conversation.
That's how corrupted markets work, and there's nothing more corrupted than the gold and silver futures markets, except maybe, the US equity markets.
What was discovered - among many views and opinions - in the FOMC minutes was that various members expressed a need to tighten policy, in other words, raise rates and/or roll off some of the excessive assets held by the Federal Reserve.
Roughly the same trade could have been made in various commodities, especially by being on the short side in WTI crude oil futures, or stocks, or by going long bonds. The Dow was up 87 points early in the day before reversing - well before the FOMC minutes release - finally closing just short of 26 points to the upside.
It is a nice way to make a living, especially when one has friends in high places.
At the Close, Wednesday, August 16, 2017:
Dow: 22,024.87, +25.88 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ 6,345.11, +12.10 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 2,468.11, +3.50 (+0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 11,865.33, +21.85 (+0.18%)
Tuesday, August 15, 2017
Back to the Grind for Wall Street
All the blustering over nuclear war over, now replaced with frantic screaming about neo-Nazi and White Supremacy groups (what kind of media is this?) after demonstrations and bloodshed in Charlottesville over the weekend, Wall Street didn't seem to interested in anything in a typical mid-summer session.
Stocks kind of straddled the unchanged line, and the usual unusual of indices pointing in opposite directions was the result of a lackluster day of trading paper.
The only significant news was from retail, if it can be believed, as July retail sales showed a 0.6% improvement, mostly due to incentives on new car sales and leases.
It wasn't enough to send buyers into a panic of shopping for downtrodden mall rentiers, since everybody already knows that the half-life of most retailers is very short, due to the general slack demand in the economy and the Amazon effect of hovering up all latent shoppers to the internet.
So, since Americans killing other Americans is not apparently as sexy as Americans killing North Koreans, or vice-versa, not much on the rally front today.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 15, 2017:
Dow: 21,998.99, +5.28 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 6,333.01, -7.22 (-0.11%)
S&P 500: 2,464.61, -1.23 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,843.48, -12.58 (-0.11%)
Stocks kind of straddled the unchanged line, and the usual unusual of indices pointing in opposite directions was the result of a lackluster day of trading paper.
The only significant news was from retail, if it can be believed, as July retail sales showed a 0.6% improvement, mostly due to incentives on new car sales and leases.
It wasn't enough to send buyers into a panic of shopping for downtrodden mall rentiers, since everybody already knows that the half-life of most retailers is very short, due to the general slack demand in the economy and the Amazon effect of hovering up all latent shoppers to the internet.
So, since Americans killing other Americans is not apparently as sexy as Americans killing North Koreans, or vice-versa, not much on the rally front today.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 15, 2017:
Dow: 21,998.99, +5.28 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 6,333.01, -7.22 (-0.11%)
S&P 500: 2,464.61, -1.23 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,843.48, -12.58 (-0.11%)
War Talk Fading, Markets Rallying
As the sun breaks above the horizon in the Eastern US, it's becoming readily apparent that the recent war of words and threats between North Korea's Kim Jong-un and US President Trump were nothing more than well-orchestrated (either intended by the principals or promoted by the deep state) banter designed to allow release of a pressure point in the markets.
In other words, stocks were completely overpriced and the rally exhausted, so a selling excuse was necessary.
Nothing like the threat of a thermo-nuclear holocaust to clear the books.
With the main protagonists backing off their bellicose behavior, stocks rallied sharply on Monday and are prepared for another moon shot Tuesday.
Just in case one is unconvinced of the machinations of the deep state and international financiers, be reminded that markets worldwide - and not just equities - have been under the various thumbs of central bankers since the GFC of 2008-09.
As has been pointed out here more than a few times, nothing is as it seems. While the appearance of a roaring stock market is a great image to project, in all likelihood, that's all it is, an image. Thus, just about everything related to the mirage of a booming economy must be held in contempt as false.
Piling falsehood upon falsehood is not a great practice in the long run. It produces a massive complex of overlapping lies, or, as Sir Walter Scott wrote in the 19th century poem, Marmion :
Nowhere in finance nor politics is more than a shred of honesty to be observed or heard.
The choices are simple: play along, play outside, or be played, but beware that there are no moral underpinnings in money or politics. That's been true for longer than anyone can remember.
Sadly, it remains the same today.
At the Close, 8/14/17:
Dow: 21,993.71, +135.39 (0.62%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.23, +83.68 (1.34%)
S&P 500: 2,465.84 +24.52 (1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 11,856.06, +92.85 (0.79%)
In other words, stocks were completely overpriced and the rally exhausted, so a selling excuse was necessary.
Nothing like the threat of a thermo-nuclear holocaust to clear the books.
With the main protagonists backing off their bellicose behavior, stocks rallied sharply on Monday and are prepared for another moon shot Tuesday.
Just in case one is unconvinced of the machinations of the deep state and international financiers, be reminded that markets worldwide - and not just equities - have been under the various thumbs of central bankers since the GFC of 2008-09.
As has been pointed out here more than a few times, nothing is as it seems. While the appearance of a roaring stock market is a great image to project, in all likelihood, that's all it is, an image. Thus, just about everything related to the mirage of a booming economy must be held in contempt as false.
Piling falsehood upon falsehood is not a great practice in the long run. It produces a massive complex of overlapping lies, or, as Sir Walter Scott wrote in the 19th century poem, Marmion :
Oh, what a tangled web we weave...when first we practice to deceive.There is truth in life and in nature.
Nowhere in finance nor politics is more than a shred of honesty to be observed or heard.
The choices are simple: play along, play outside, or be played, but beware that there are no moral underpinnings in money or politics. That's been true for longer than anyone can remember.
Sadly, it remains the same today.
At the Close, 8/14/17:
Dow: 21,993.71, +135.39 (0.62%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.23, +83.68 (1.34%)
S&P 500: 2,465.84 +24.52 (1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 11,856.06, +92.85 (0.79%)
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