75 years ago today, the first nuclear bomb was used in warfare, as the United States dropped "Little Boy" on Hiroshima, Japan. Three days later, the US did the same to the Japanese city of Nagasaki with a nuclear device known by the nickname "Fat Man." Together, the two bombs ushered in a quick end to World War II in the Pacific, with Japan surrendering on August 15, and formally signing the instrument of surrender on September 2, aboard the USS Missouri, harbored in Tokyo Bay.
The 13-kiloton blast on Hiroshima destroyed nearly 5 square miles of the Japanese city. Upwards of 70,000 died instantly, and tens of thousands later perished from injury and radiation sickness. Though no official count was ever undertaken, estimates near 150,000 total killed are common.
No other nuclear device has ever been used in military combat since the two that ended World War II. Today's nuclear weapons are orders of magnitude more powerful than the two dropped on Japan. According to a 2104 article by the Brookings Institute, the largest ballistic missile warhead in the US arsenal is 455 kilotons on the W88, carried by the Trident II SLBM. The B83 nuclear weapon, which is the largest nuclear weapon currently in the U.S. stockpile is estimated at 1.2 megatons, 1000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, "Little Boy."
While these explosions occurred 75 years ago, there's another explosion evident today, that being the one in the price of silver, which is up more than 50 percent in just the last 30 days.
Overnight, the price of an ounce of silver not only passed $27 an ounce, it surpassed $28 per ounce. As of this writing, the bid price on August silver futures is $28.22. As is the case with gold, getting physical metal at anywhere near the futures or spot prices is basically an impossibility.
For instance, there's little availability of gold in bars or coins of over one ounce at dealers worldwide. Typical prices for one ounce gold coins or bars carries a premium of roughly $100 beyond spot. Silver is even more dear, with 30-40% premiums common. Typical prices for one ounce coins or bars is $34 and higher.
Money Daily has outlined the reasons for silver and gold's spectacular gains this year in previous posts, mostly attributing the rise to destruction of fiat currencies by incessant central bank counterfeiting and negative real interest rates. Outstripping every other asset this year, precious metals are just beginning what is likely to become known as the greatest rally ever.
The Federal Reserve, trapped into a corner of their own making, cannot do anything except prop up their favored equity and fixed-income markets via special buying programs that are essentially illegal and serve only as a temporary reprieve for companies that are insolvent and should be headed to bankruptcy. Beyond the roughly 30-40% of listed companies that are technically "zombies" - meaning current profits are not enough to pay the interest on their debt - US and other significant international banks have been frantically ramping up their loan loss reserves while also having taken advantage of handouts from the Federal Reserve.
Gold and silver's ascent is a signal the the entire monetary system of the planet - all based on faith and credit - is about to collapse. As it is, stocks are only being kept afloat by the Federal Reserve's ZIRP and special bond-buying programs. Their next step is to buy stocks directly, another violation of their charter. The same is being done in Europe and Asia. Japan and Switzerland have been buyers of equities for years.
It's not just big money institutional investors who see the damage being done to the global currency regime. Ordinary people are losing faith in the dollar, euro, pound, Swiss franc, yen, and China's yuan, though the US dollar has been the hardest hit recently when measured against other currencies.
Gold has been making record highs against all other currencies for months and years. Just last week gold topped the all-time high against the dollar, signaling that the real rout of all currencies is just beginning. Silver hasn't even come close to its record high of $49 an ounce, though it certainly will, probably early in 2021, if not sooner. The rocket-like nature of silver's price explosion gives credence to current thinking that it is the gentleman's way of saying good-bye to other currencies.
There's an old adage that goes something like this:
Gold is the money of kings.
Silver is the money of gentlemen.
Copper is the money of commoners.
Debt is the money of slaves.
Smart money is on gold and silver replacing the fiat currencies within one to three years.
You can have your stocks, your bonds, your Federal Reserve Notes, but gold and silver are blowing them all away. If you don't own physical gold or silver or other tradable hard assets within the next few years, you're going to be out of luck and likely out of money.
Right now, the economic wheels are wobbling on their axles. When they finally fall off - and they will - chaos will ensue. We've seen nothing yet.
At the close, Wednesday, August 5, 2020:
Dow: 27,201.52, +373.05 (+1.39%)
NASDAQ: 10,998.40, +57.23 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 3,327.77, +21.26 (+0.64%)
NYSE: 12,731.55, +119.46 (+0.95%)
Showing posts with label nuclear. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nuclear. Show all posts
Thursday, August 6, 2020
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
Stocks Bounce Back, Set To Continue Gains
After posting losses the first two trading days of March, stocks opened the new week with fresh gains, nearly erasing the red ink for the month. The Dow is still down more than 150 points for the month and much more than that from all-time highs (January 26 is looking smaller and smaller in the rear-view mirror), but stocks are poised to push higher on Tuesday on good news from the Korean Peninsula.
Talks between the North and South are apparently proceeding well, with the North - according to published reports - willing to denuclearize if the US and its allies can ensure its safety. The thought of nuking North Korea, being more of a paranoid construct in the mind of leader, Kim Jong-un, than any substantive reality, should not be a major obstacle should talks continue apace.
If the North and South states do eventually settle their differences, it would amount to nothing less than a complete coup for President Trump and his negotiating team, which has talked alternatively tough and sensible to the North Koreans. Resolution of the 65-year-old standoff would seem to be positive for all parties, depending on the terms of any definitive pact.
A re-emergence of North Korea into the union of so-called civilized nations might also pave the way for other countries, such as Ukraine and Iran, to proceed with normalization of policies, taking a step back from the brink of war or annihilation, nuclear or otherwise.
Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:
At the Close, Monday, March 5, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,874.76, +336.70 (+1.37%)
NASDAQ: 7,330.70, +72.84 (+1.00%)
S&P 500: 2,720.94, +29.69 (+1.10%)
NYSE Composite: 12,680.73, +122.74 (+0.98%)
Talks between the North and South are apparently proceeding well, with the North - according to published reports - willing to denuclearize if the US and its allies can ensure its safety. The thought of nuking North Korea, being more of a paranoid construct in the mind of leader, Kim Jong-un, than any substantive reality, should not be a major obstacle should talks continue apace.
If the North and South states do eventually settle their differences, it would amount to nothing less than a complete coup for President Trump and his negotiating team, which has talked alternatively tough and sensible to the North Koreans. Resolution of the 65-year-old standoff would seem to be positive for all parties, depending on the terms of any definitive pact.
A re-emergence of North Korea into the union of so-called civilized nations might also pave the way for other countries, such as Ukraine and Iran, to proceed with normalization of policies, taking a step back from the brink of war or annihilation, nuclear or otherwise.
Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 3/1/18 | 24,608.98 | -420.22 | -420.22 |
| 3/2/18 | 24,538.06 | -70.92 | -491.14 |
| 3/5/18 | 24,874.76 | +336.70 | -154.44 |
At the Close, Monday, March 5, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,874.76, +336.70 (+1.37%)
NASDAQ: 7,330.70, +72.84 (+1.00%)
S&P 500: 2,720.94, +29.69 (+1.10%)
NYSE Composite: 12,680.73, +122.74 (+0.98%)
Tuesday, August 15, 2017
War Talk Fading, Markets Rallying
As the sun breaks above the horizon in the Eastern US, it's becoming readily apparent that the recent war of words and threats between North Korea's Kim Jong-un and US President Trump were nothing more than well-orchestrated (either intended by the principals or promoted by the deep state) banter designed to allow release of a pressure point in the markets.
In other words, stocks were completely overpriced and the rally exhausted, so a selling excuse was necessary.
Nothing like the threat of a thermo-nuclear holocaust to clear the books.
With the main protagonists backing off their bellicose behavior, stocks rallied sharply on Monday and are prepared for another moon shot Tuesday.
Just in case one is unconvinced of the machinations of the deep state and international financiers, be reminded that markets worldwide - and not just equities - have been under the various thumbs of central bankers since the GFC of 2008-09.
As has been pointed out here more than a few times, nothing is as it seems. While the appearance of a roaring stock market is a great image to project, in all likelihood, that's all it is, an image. Thus, just about everything related to the mirage of a booming economy must be held in contempt as false.
Piling falsehood upon falsehood is not a great practice in the long run. It produces a massive complex of overlapping lies, or, as Sir Walter Scott wrote in the 19th century poem, Marmion :
Nowhere in finance nor politics is more than a shred of honesty to be observed or heard.
The choices are simple: play along, play outside, or be played, but beware that there are no moral underpinnings in money or politics. That's been true for longer than anyone can remember.
Sadly, it remains the same today.
At the Close, 8/14/17:
Dow: 21,993.71, +135.39 (0.62%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.23, +83.68 (1.34%)
S&P 500: 2,465.84 +24.52 (1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 11,856.06, +92.85 (0.79%)
In other words, stocks were completely overpriced and the rally exhausted, so a selling excuse was necessary.
Nothing like the threat of a thermo-nuclear holocaust to clear the books.
With the main protagonists backing off their bellicose behavior, stocks rallied sharply on Monday and are prepared for another moon shot Tuesday.
Just in case one is unconvinced of the machinations of the deep state and international financiers, be reminded that markets worldwide - and not just equities - have been under the various thumbs of central bankers since the GFC of 2008-09.
As has been pointed out here more than a few times, nothing is as it seems. While the appearance of a roaring stock market is a great image to project, in all likelihood, that's all it is, an image. Thus, just about everything related to the mirage of a booming economy must be held in contempt as false.
Piling falsehood upon falsehood is not a great practice in the long run. It produces a massive complex of overlapping lies, or, as Sir Walter Scott wrote in the 19th century poem, Marmion :
Oh, what a tangled web we weave...when first we practice to deceive.There is truth in life and in nature.
Nowhere in finance nor politics is more than a shred of honesty to be observed or heard.
The choices are simple: play along, play outside, or be played, but beware that there are no moral underpinnings in money or politics. That's been true for longer than anyone can remember.
Sadly, it remains the same today.
At the Close, 8/14/17:
Dow: 21,993.71, +135.39 (0.62%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.23, +83.68 (1.34%)
S&P 500: 2,465.84 +24.52 (1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 11,856.06, +92.85 (0.79%)
Friday, August 11, 2017
Stocks Extend Slide Amid Noth Korea, US Bombast, But It's Not Serious
Just in case there needs to be an excuse to sell overpriced stocks, there's always North Korea and the nit-wit leader Kim Jong-un.
A bone fide nutjob, the second child of Kim Jong-il, 33-year-old Jong-un has, in his brief stint as self-appointed supreme leader of North Korea, managed to elevate himself and his gulag of a nation onto the global stage and capture the spotlight with various treats, missile launches, nuclear ambitions and plenty of help from international media seeking sensationalism with which to scare an unsuspecting public.
With bombastic President Trump entering the fray earlier this year, Jong-un has found the perfect Dean Martin straight man for his Jerry Lewis-like antics. A master of the tweet-storm, Trump takes Jong-un seriously, which helps amp up the rhetoric with bold statements and unveiled threats in response to Jong-un's madness. The two could make a fortune on the stages of Las Vegas, if only the State Department would allow Jong-un entry to the US mainland.
What the international war of words has to do with stocks is roughly nothing. Until actual bombs start raining down, the prattling between the leaders of the United States and North Korea is more about television and radio ratings than the prices of Apple, Alphabet, or Alcoa.
However, as stated at the top of this missive, Wall Street specialists are taking the opportunity to dump out of high-flying stocks with near-reckless abandon, sending the major indices to their biggest losses in six months on Thursday, extending the minor losses from Wednesday into something worth noticing.
The selling has also not been limited to just US stocks. As the talk has become more bellicose, the drops on major foreign markets in Europe, Asia, and the Americas have been extended. As of Friday morning in the US, most of Asia and Europe are suffering losses of between one and two percent, though the Nikkei 225 is bucking the trend, down only slightly, nearly flat on the day.
That brings up an interesting topic: if Japan's major market isn't taking this "international nuclear stand-off" with the requisite seriousness, should anybody else?
Probably not, but, this is as good a time as any to take profits. The congress and the president are pretty much on vacation until after Labor Day, but, when they get back to pretending they're doing something constructive, they'll be tackling the ticklish issues of the debt ceiling (along with the attendant threats of shutting down the government - yeah!) and coming up with something resembling a federal budget.
On the latter, hashing out a budget between the Trump administration and the overwhelmingly free-spending congress ought to be some serious comedy. Trump would love to balance the federal budget, but congress intends to drown the nation in even more debt. In case anybody is still keeping score, the federal debt burden stands at close to $20 billion, but, according to the US Debt Clock, it's been stuck there for a few months due to extraordinary measures taken by Treasury and some unforeseen savings on the administration's end.
The congress is not happy about this and will make sure to pile up more debt in the months ahead, making the budget process the go-to, must see entertainment venue for the fall TV season.
So, unless the bottom falls out of the market on Friday, August 11, this is nothing more than profit-taking by people who actually know what they're doing and don't respond in knee-jerk fashion to the pronouncements of madmen and the tweets of presidents.
Meantime, the recent news frame has been good for bonds, gold and silver, all of which have had three straight sessions of unimpeded gains. Gold is approaching $1300 an ounce, the 10-year note is yielding 2.21% and silver broke through $17 per ounce on Thursday. What is not working, still, is oil, which appears unable to pierce the $50/barrel level, which shouldn't be an issue. There remains a massive glut, oversupply, slack demand due to slow economic growth globally and no pricing power anywhere from Riyadh to Russia. Oil should be less than $40 per barrel, though resistance is great, led by the global energy cartel with the help from central bankers who simply cannot stomach any more deflation in anything.
With that, stocks in the US are setting up for another scary open to the downside, but it's probably nothing more than a bump in the road. The real action is still a month away, and even then, the Fed has Wall Street's back. Unless something really serious occurs, there's likely not to be any major turn in the stock markets, though the same cannot be assumed about commodities, bonds, precious metals, or even crypto-currencies like Bitcoin.
At the Close, 8/10/17:
Dow: 21,844.01, -204.69 (-0.93%)
NASDAQ: 6,216.87, -135.46 (-2.13%)
S&P 500: 2,438.21, -35.81 (-1.45%)
NYSE Composite: 11,771.60, -157.87 (-1.32%)
A bone fide nutjob, the second child of Kim Jong-il, 33-year-old Jong-un has, in his brief stint as self-appointed supreme leader of North Korea, managed to elevate himself and his gulag of a nation onto the global stage and capture the spotlight with various treats, missile launches, nuclear ambitions and plenty of help from international media seeking sensationalism with which to scare an unsuspecting public.
With bombastic President Trump entering the fray earlier this year, Jong-un has found the perfect Dean Martin straight man for his Jerry Lewis-like antics. A master of the tweet-storm, Trump takes Jong-un seriously, which helps amp up the rhetoric with bold statements and unveiled threats in response to Jong-un's madness. The two could make a fortune on the stages of Las Vegas, if only the State Department would allow Jong-un entry to the US mainland.
What the international war of words has to do with stocks is roughly nothing. Until actual bombs start raining down, the prattling between the leaders of the United States and North Korea is more about television and radio ratings than the prices of Apple, Alphabet, or Alcoa.
However, as stated at the top of this missive, Wall Street specialists are taking the opportunity to dump out of high-flying stocks with near-reckless abandon, sending the major indices to their biggest losses in six months on Thursday, extending the minor losses from Wednesday into something worth noticing.
The selling has also not been limited to just US stocks. As the talk has become more bellicose, the drops on major foreign markets in Europe, Asia, and the Americas have been extended. As of Friday morning in the US, most of Asia and Europe are suffering losses of between one and two percent, though the Nikkei 225 is bucking the trend, down only slightly, nearly flat on the day.
That brings up an interesting topic: if Japan's major market isn't taking this "international nuclear stand-off" with the requisite seriousness, should anybody else?
Probably not, but, this is as good a time as any to take profits. The congress and the president are pretty much on vacation until after Labor Day, but, when they get back to pretending they're doing something constructive, they'll be tackling the ticklish issues of the debt ceiling (along with the attendant threats of shutting down the government - yeah!) and coming up with something resembling a federal budget.
On the latter, hashing out a budget between the Trump administration and the overwhelmingly free-spending congress ought to be some serious comedy. Trump would love to balance the federal budget, but congress intends to drown the nation in even more debt. In case anybody is still keeping score, the federal debt burden stands at close to $20 billion, but, according to the US Debt Clock, it's been stuck there for a few months due to extraordinary measures taken by Treasury and some unforeseen savings on the administration's end.
The congress is not happy about this and will make sure to pile up more debt in the months ahead, making the budget process the go-to, must see entertainment venue for the fall TV season.
So, unless the bottom falls out of the market on Friday, August 11, this is nothing more than profit-taking by people who actually know what they're doing and don't respond in knee-jerk fashion to the pronouncements of madmen and the tweets of presidents.
Meantime, the recent news frame has been good for bonds, gold and silver, all of which have had three straight sessions of unimpeded gains. Gold is approaching $1300 an ounce, the 10-year note is yielding 2.21% and silver broke through $17 per ounce on Thursday. What is not working, still, is oil, which appears unable to pierce the $50/barrel level, which shouldn't be an issue. There remains a massive glut, oversupply, slack demand due to slow economic growth globally and no pricing power anywhere from Riyadh to Russia. Oil should be less than $40 per barrel, though resistance is great, led by the global energy cartel with the help from central bankers who simply cannot stomach any more deflation in anything.
With that, stocks in the US are setting up for another scary open to the downside, but it's probably nothing more than a bump in the road. The real action is still a month away, and even then, the Fed has Wall Street's back. Unless something really serious occurs, there's likely not to be any major turn in the stock markets, though the same cannot be assumed about commodities, bonds, precious metals, or even crypto-currencies like Bitcoin.
At the Close, 8/10/17:
Dow: 21,844.01, -204.69 (-0.93%)
NASDAQ: 6,216.87, -135.46 (-2.13%)
S&P 500: 2,438.21, -35.81 (-1.45%)
NYSE Composite: 11,771.60, -157.87 (-1.32%)
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Extra Radiation Must Be Bullish For Stocks
All manner of radioactive isotopes continue to leak out of all six nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant on the Eastern coast of Japan. Radiation has been detected in sea water, fresh water, in the air and on land. Here's a nice summary of the effects a few of these "heavy" elements on human health.
Half a world away, Libya is being bombed to smithereens.
The coalition doing the bombing is falling apart.
New and existing homes sales are at 30 year lows.
New unemployment claims came in at 382,000, which is 5,000 fewer than the week before. Funny thing about those new unemployment claims, other than the fact that they're fairly benign numbers, is that when the economy isn't creating jobs and we're still stuck in a depression, people just hang on to the jobs they have. Businesses can only let go of so many people, so the natural tendency is for fewer and fewer people to quit, be fired or laid off. Thus, numbers like we've been getting the past few weeks only indicate that there are fewer people collecting benefits, not that new jobs are actually being created.
New jobs! You're such a kidder.
Durable orders for February were down 0.9%. The expectation was for a gain of 1.1%. Ooopsie!
All good, according to Wall Street. Party on.
I am the walrus.
Coo-coo-ka-choo.
Dow 12,170.56, +84.54 (0.70%)
NASDAQ 2,736.42, +38.12 (1.41%)
S&P 500 1,309.66, +12.12 (0.93%)
NYSE Composite 8,311.61, +62.78 (0.76%)
As expected advancing issues exceeded decliners, 4273-2196. Global economic conditions are so good, in fact, that there were 110 new highs on the NASDAQ and just 22 new lows. On the NYSE, 135 companies set new highs while only 13 hit new lows. Volume actually picked up a bit after two days of sleep-walking. Don't want to miss the rally, for Pete's sake.
NASDAQ Volume 1,901,250,250
NYSE Volume 4,358,651,500
Meanwhile, oil traded on the NYMEX, that light, sweet stuff called West Texas Intermediate, backed off a whole 15 cents a barrel, to $105.60. The new normal for a gallon of gas in the USA is now $3.55, according to AAA.
According to our sources at Kitco, gold is currently down $8.10, at $1430.50 per ounce, but that price does not reflect that the yellow money made a new all-time high today of $1449.10. Silver is being quoted at $37.19, down 23 cents. But silver also made a move to a fresh 31-year-high, slightly above $38 per ounce.
So, who's right? Normally, gold and silver only gain in times of undue global stress, as a store of value and a hedge against collapsing currencies and/or inflation risk.
Stocks go up in times of robust economic activity, normally, or whenever the Fed pumps enormous amounts of fresh capital into markets, as they've been doing for the better part of the past 2 1/2 years.
The dollar index fell .183, to 75.69, a horrifically low figure, indicating the US is not the safe haven it used to be in which to park money.
There's your answer. If the dollar index continues to fall, reaching unprecedented lows, which it is currently approaching, US stocks, denominated in dollars, have to gain just to keep up. Commodities may swing either way, but the precious metals and oil should rise as the dollar weakens, so both stock players and gold bugs are right to keep pushing prices higher. Only one of them will be the eventual winner, however, and, while we are pretty sure which that will be, we're not telling.
Half a world away, Libya is being bombed to smithereens.
The coalition doing the bombing is falling apart.
New and existing homes sales are at 30 year lows.
New unemployment claims came in at 382,000, which is 5,000 fewer than the week before. Funny thing about those new unemployment claims, other than the fact that they're fairly benign numbers, is that when the economy isn't creating jobs and we're still stuck in a depression, people just hang on to the jobs they have. Businesses can only let go of so many people, so the natural tendency is for fewer and fewer people to quit, be fired or laid off. Thus, numbers like we've been getting the past few weeks only indicate that there are fewer people collecting benefits, not that new jobs are actually being created.
New jobs! You're such a kidder.
Durable orders for February were down 0.9%. The expectation was for a gain of 1.1%. Ooopsie!
All good, according to Wall Street. Party on.
I am the walrus.
Coo-coo-ka-choo.
Dow 12,170.56, +84.54 (0.70%)
NASDAQ 2,736.42, +38.12 (1.41%)
S&P 500 1,309.66, +12.12 (0.93%)
NYSE Composite 8,311.61, +62.78 (0.76%)
As expected advancing issues exceeded decliners, 4273-2196. Global economic conditions are so good, in fact, that there were 110 new highs on the NASDAQ and just 22 new lows. On the NYSE, 135 companies set new highs while only 13 hit new lows. Volume actually picked up a bit after two days of sleep-walking. Don't want to miss the rally, for Pete's sake.
NASDAQ Volume 1,901,250,250
NYSE Volume 4,358,651,500
Meanwhile, oil traded on the NYMEX, that light, sweet stuff called West Texas Intermediate, backed off a whole 15 cents a barrel, to $105.60. The new normal for a gallon of gas in the USA is now $3.55, according to AAA.
According to our sources at Kitco, gold is currently down $8.10, at $1430.50 per ounce, but that price does not reflect that the yellow money made a new all-time high today of $1449.10. Silver is being quoted at $37.19, down 23 cents. But silver also made a move to a fresh 31-year-high, slightly above $38 per ounce.
So, who's right? Normally, gold and silver only gain in times of undue global stress, as a store of value and a hedge against collapsing currencies and/or inflation risk.
Stocks go up in times of robust economic activity, normally, or whenever the Fed pumps enormous amounts of fresh capital into markets, as they've been doing for the better part of the past 2 1/2 years.
The dollar index fell .183, to 75.69, a horrifically low figure, indicating the US is not the safe haven it used to be in which to park money.
There's your answer. If the dollar index continues to fall, reaching unprecedented lows, which it is currently approaching, US stocks, denominated in dollars, have to gain just to keep up. Commodities may swing either way, but the precious metals and oil should rise as the dollar weakens, so both stock players and gold bugs are right to keep pushing prices higher. Only one of them will be the eventual winner, however, and, while we are pretty sure which that will be, we're not telling.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
WAKE UP, PEOPLE! THE GLOBE IS GOING NUCLEAR!
Not to sound alarmist, but anybody who believes the mainstream media is giving us the truth about what's really happening on the ground, in the air and in the water around the Fukushima plant in Japan, might just as well stick one's head in the sand and hope for the best.
Conditions at the the plant continue to worsen, despite the best efforts of brave individuals trying to keep the entire Eastern coast of Japan from turning into a nuclear wasteland and the media isn't even trying to cover it.
But why listen to me. Here are a few choice links of interest to anyone who doesn't want to grow a third ear or die from thyroid cancer when it could be avoided:
For starters, here' a story about of Australia about how 128 elderly patients were left to die in a hospital six miles from the nuclear plant.
Oh, well, too bad for them, huh? We're here in America, so none of this is affecting any of us, right?
Well, take a look at this map of the dispersion from the disabled plant:
Did that get your attention? Sure, maybe the radiation levels aren't anything to get excited about, but do you trust our dysfunctional media to actually deliver the truth? And why did FOX get their main reporter, Sheppard Smith, out of Japan and CNN do the same with Anderson Cooper, LAST WEEK?
Just ask yourself, how long will it take the "authorities" to put this nuclear disaster to rest? Well, it's been ten days, boys and girls, and we're nowhere close to fixing what's going to become known - I have no doubt about this at all - as the worst disaster - man-made or otherwise - of all time.
Now, maybe the fact that food imports from Japan have been banned, do you feel safer? Oh, and there's more, like black smoke and how Tokyo drinking water now contains iodine-131 at levels unsafe for infants. In case you're wondering how much is too much for adults, the recommended safe level is below 300 becquerels per liter. The water tested in Toyko recorded levels of 190-210 becquerel per liter.
So, why do I bother? The national media gives much more coverage to the stupidity of our
engagement in Libya. Wonder why? The old adage in TV news reporting is, "if it bleeds, it leads," meaning that guys getting shot and killed and bombs blowing up buildings is far more engaging to the dumbed-down populace of the United States (and a lot of the rest of the world) than pictures of steam coming out of blown up nuclear facilities.
Well, maybe that's enough for today. Wouldn't want anyone to get upset or panic. After all, our media and our government have proven, since 9-11, to be worthless, so why should it be any different in Japan? Just go along in your haze of cognitive dissonance, and maybe buy some stocks.
Oh, the Portugese parliament is likely going to dissolve soon, either due to radiation or votes, whichever comes first, I suppose.
So, yes, we should be buying stocks on all this bullish news, some of which is actually being reported.
Dow 12,086.02, +67.39 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,698.30, +14.43 (0.54%)
S&P 500 1,297.54, +3.77 (0.29%)
NYSE Composite 8,248.83, +20.42 (0.25%)
Stocks started out negative but ground higher all day. Thank the computers and the algos that do the majority of the trading these days. Advancers slithered by decliners, 3540-2917. On the NASDAQ there were 72 new highs and 42 new lows; the NYSE showed 91 new highs and 18 new lows. Volume was only marginally better than yesterday's which was worse than pathetic. Get ready for a wicked decline some time soon. It may look like a crash, because it just could be one.
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,377,875
NYSE Volume 4,313,727,000
At least those trading in commodities knew what they were doing. Oil was up 78 cents, to $105.75. Gold gained $10.40, to $1,438.00, and silver shot up 93 cents, to $37.20, another new 31-year high. The gold and silver bugs know what's up. If things get any worse, they'll become overnight million-and-billionaires.
Good luck to you still holding any paper assets. They're about to be burned, along with the rest of the fuel rods at Fuk - U - Shima.
Edit: Just had to add that ABC and CBS each began their nightly news broadcasts with nearly 10 minutes of breathless coverage on the death of Elizabeth Taylor. NBC led with Libya, but did report on the drinking water supplies being tainted in Tokyo. Priorities, people, priorities.
Conditions at the the plant continue to worsen, despite the best efforts of brave individuals trying to keep the entire Eastern coast of Japan from turning into a nuclear wasteland and the media isn't even trying to cover it.
But why listen to me. Here are a few choice links of interest to anyone who doesn't want to grow a third ear or die from thyroid cancer when it could be avoided:
For starters, here' a story about of Australia about how 128 elderly patients were left to die in a hospital six miles from the nuclear plant.
Oh, well, too bad for them, huh? We're here in America, so none of this is affecting any of us, right?
Well, take a look at this map of the dispersion from the disabled plant:
Did that get your attention? Sure, maybe the radiation levels aren't anything to get excited about, but do you trust our dysfunctional media to actually deliver the truth? And why did FOX get their main reporter, Sheppard Smith, out of Japan and CNN do the same with Anderson Cooper, LAST WEEK?
Just ask yourself, how long will it take the "authorities" to put this nuclear disaster to rest? Well, it's been ten days, boys and girls, and we're nowhere close to fixing what's going to become known - I have no doubt about this at all - as the worst disaster - man-made or otherwise - of all time.
Now, maybe the fact that food imports from Japan have been banned, do you feel safer? Oh, and there's more, like black smoke and how Tokyo drinking water now contains iodine-131 at levels unsafe for infants. In case you're wondering how much is too much for adults, the recommended safe level is below 300 becquerels per liter. The water tested in Toyko recorded levels of 190-210 becquerel per liter.
So, why do I bother? The national media gives much more coverage to the stupidity of our
Well, maybe that's enough for today. Wouldn't want anyone to get upset or panic. After all, our media and our government have proven, since 9-11, to be worthless, so why should it be any different in Japan? Just go along in your haze of cognitive dissonance, and maybe buy some stocks.
Oh, the Portugese parliament is likely going to dissolve soon, either due to radiation or votes, whichever comes first, I suppose.
So, yes, we should be buying stocks on all this bullish news, some of which is actually being reported.
Dow 12,086.02, +67.39 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,698.30, +14.43 (0.54%)
S&P 500 1,297.54, +3.77 (0.29%)
NYSE Composite 8,248.83, +20.42 (0.25%)
Stocks started out negative but ground higher all day. Thank the computers and the algos that do the majority of the trading these days. Advancers slithered by decliners, 3540-2917. On the NASDAQ there were 72 new highs and 42 new lows; the NYSE showed 91 new highs and 18 new lows. Volume was only marginally better than yesterday's which was worse than pathetic. Get ready for a wicked decline some time soon. It may look like a crash, because it just could be one.
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,377,875
NYSE Volume 4,313,727,000
At least those trading in commodities knew what they were doing. Oil was up 78 cents, to $105.75. Gold gained $10.40, to $1,438.00, and silver shot up 93 cents, to $37.20, another new 31-year high. The gold and silver bugs know what's up. If things get any worse, they'll become overnight million-and-billionaires.
Good luck to you still holding any paper assets. They're about to be burned, along with the rest of the fuel rods at Fuk - U - Shima.
Edit: Just had to add that ABC and CBS each began their nightly news broadcasts with nearly 10 minutes of breathless coverage on the death of Elizabeth Taylor. NBC led with Libya, but did report on the drinking water supplies being tainted in Tokyo. Priorities, people, priorities.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
A Day Without Disaster
Thankfully, Tuesday is almost over with and there haven't been any grave disasters, though the ones that have been hovering over the globe for the past few weeks are still far from resolved.
It seems to make some sense that markets would just wallow around until the damaged nuclear reactors in Japan are finally shut down, whenever that may happen, Colonel Qadaffi is defeated or found dead in Libya and the level of unrest settles down in various countries in Northern Africa and the Middle East.
That's exactly what went on today. There seemed to be no reason to either buy or sell equities and the major indices traded in narrow ranges all session long.
Naturally, conditions in the hot spots around the world could get better or worse, and nobody is really sure of anything at this juncture, especially when officials in Japan continue to stage a weird kind of kabuki theater in the way they report the situation at the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant, where four reactors have experienced some kind of explosion, accident, fire or other condition as an indirect result of the 9.0 earthquake that rattled the island nation on March 11.
That the reactors are spewing radioactive gasses and material is not disputed, but how much of which particular isotopes are going where and when has not been even remotely reported. All we know is that the radiation levels are higher than they were a week ago in various areas around the site and that the spread has become nearly global in nature, though slight in terms of actual threats to human health.
That's not really very reassuring since the problems persist and any increased exposure to any kind of radiation is potentially a health hazard.
Meanwhile, the US response, in conjunction with a bevy of nations, to the blood-letting in Libya has been met with considerable criticism and even our own representatives are speaking in tongues, with the president, congress and the military all putting out their own spin, none of it making a whole lot of sense.
More than likely, these issues will remain in some kind of focus for the coming weeks, if not months, and there will be other unexpected events in the interim. The best advice would be to expect the unexpected at this juncture, because nothing is for certain and situations are still, as they say, fluid.
Dow 12,018.63, -17.90 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 2,683.87, -8.22 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,293.77, -4.61 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,228.41, -27.95 (0.34%)
Declining issues dominated winners, 3743-2718. There were 72 new highs and 33 new lows on the NASDAQ; on the NYSE 109 new highs and just 8 new lows. Volume was miserably low. This was, if not the slowest trading day of the year, among the three or four worst. There's simply too much event risk associated to equities in the current cycle.
NASDAQ Volume 1,671,905,000
NYSE Volume 3,995,960,500
Oil finished at an even $104.00, up another $1.67 due to unresolved Middle East issues. Gold managed a squeeze out a gain of $2.30, closing at $1,427.60 in New York, within 1% of its all-time high. Silver gained nicely, adding 27 cents per ounce, to $36.27, the third-highest point in the last 31 years and just pennies away from the nominal high of $36.60, reached just two weeks ago, on March 7.
The longer it takes for Japan's nuclear reactor problems to be resolved, the longer stocks will remain bogged down, stuck in a range between the highs of February 18 and recent lows. Radiation leaks and potential melt-downs are nothing to joke about, and the condition of those plants is such that it could easily become a much more severe problem before it is eventually resolved.
There's already a panic quietly building world-wide, even though the reported radiation levels have been in an "acceptable" range. However, the longer the reactors leak radiation, the lower the tolerance of acceptance becomes. That situation remains highly volatile and potentially upsetting on a global basis, not only to investors but to the health of people.
It seems to make some sense that markets would just wallow around until the damaged nuclear reactors in Japan are finally shut down, whenever that may happen, Colonel Qadaffi is defeated or found dead in Libya and the level of unrest settles down in various countries in Northern Africa and the Middle East.
That's exactly what went on today. There seemed to be no reason to either buy or sell equities and the major indices traded in narrow ranges all session long.
Naturally, conditions in the hot spots around the world could get better or worse, and nobody is really sure of anything at this juncture, especially when officials in Japan continue to stage a weird kind of kabuki theater in the way they report the situation at the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant, where four reactors have experienced some kind of explosion, accident, fire or other condition as an indirect result of the 9.0 earthquake that rattled the island nation on March 11.
That the reactors are spewing radioactive gasses and material is not disputed, but how much of which particular isotopes are going where and when has not been even remotely reported. All we know is that the radiation levels are higher than they were a week ago in various areas around the site and that the spread has become nearly global in nature, though slight in terms of actual threats to human health.
That's not really very reassuring since the problems persist and any increased exposure to any kind of radiation is potentially a health hazard.
Meanwhile, the US response, in conjunction with a bevy of nations, to the blood-letting in Libya has been met with considerable criticism and even our own representatives are speaking in tongues, with the president, congress and the military all putting out their own spin, none of it making a whole lot of sense.
More than likely, these issues will remain in some kind of focus for the coming weeks, if not months, and there will be other unexpected events in the interim. The best advice would be to expect the unexpected at this juncture, because nothing is for certain and situations are still, as they say, fluid.
Dow 12,018.63, -17.90 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 2,683.87, -8.22 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,293.77, -4.61 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,228.41, -27.95 (0.34%)
Declining issues dominated winners, 3743-2718. There were 72 new highs and 33 new lows on the NASDAQ; on the NYSE 109 new highs and just 8 new lows. Volume was miserably low. This was, if not the slowest trading day of the year, among the three or four worst. There's simply too much event risk associated to equities in the current cycle.
NASDAQ Volume 1,671,905,000
NYSE Volume 3,995,960,500
Oil finished at an even $104.00, up another $1.67 due to unresolved Middle East issues. Gold managed a squeeze out a gain of $2.30, closing at $1,427.60 in New York, within 1% of its all-time high. Silver gained nicely, adding 27 cents per ounce, to $36.27, the third-highest point in the last 31 years and just pennies away from the nominal high of $36.60, reached just two weeks ago, on March 7.
The longer it takes for Japan's nuclear reactor problems to be resolved, the longer stocks will remain bogged down, stuck in a range between the highs of February 18 and recent lows. Radiation leaks and potential melt-downs are nothing to joke about, and the condition of those plants is such that it could easily become a much more severe problem before it is eventually resolved.
There's already a panic quietly building world-wide, even though the reported radiation levels have been in an "acceptable" range. However, the longer the reactors leak radiation, the lower the tolerance of acceptance becomes. That situation remains highly volatile and potentially upsetting on a global basis, not only to investors but to the health of people.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Optimism Can Be Good or Bad
Americans are an optimistic lot. Nothing wrong with that, as long as some of the optimistic sentiment is grounded in reality. There's a big difference between wishing and hoping for some desired result that may not have a good chance of happening and confidence based on experience and factual data.
Overnight, conditions in Japan took a turn for the worse as another reactor at the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facility about 100 miles North of Tokyo suffered an explosion. Japanese officials tried to appear calm, but the fear and panic on their faces was not easy to hide. Reactor #2 at the plant incurred a violent explosion that reportedly damaged part of the containment vessel which holds the unstable rods of highly-charged uranium.
Shortly after that blast, a fire in reactor #4 was reported to have occurred in the pools holding spent fuel rods, also highly toxic and radioactive. Reactors #2 and #3 had already been damaged by xplosions in the aftermath of the 9.0 earthquake and tsunami which hit the island nation on Friday.
The Japanese stock market, the NIKKEI 225, suffered a substantial loss of nearly 11% before trading was halted. Other Asian markets took losses as well, and European markets were down more than 2% when stocks opened in New York.
The drop on the open was a stark and panic-stricken response to what appeared to be possible meltdown in the #2 reactor and spreading risk of contamination to a large area of Japan. A radius of 20 kilometers (12 miles) was evacuated and another in another area further out - to 30 kilometers - residents were told to stay inside due to increased risk of exposure to radioactive elements in the air.
Most of the news occurred during the night for Americans, so there was a bit of unease at the open. The Dow fell 310 points in the opening minutes of the session, with the other major indices taking similar falls.
But, as it turns out, that was the worst of it for US stocks, which rallied in a diagonal path all day as no new news came from Japan. While traders put their most optimistic attitude front and center, the conditions in Japan are still very much in a state of flux. For now, most of the damage has been contained, but the risk of complete meltdown of any one of the three badly-damaged reactors is still prevalent, which is why the attitude of the American traders and investors may be a bit premature.
Besides the nuclear plant situation, conditions on about a third of the main island remain challenging and desperate. Aid is only now reaching some of the victims, the death toll continues to mount and reconstruction is still weeks and months from even beginning. The scope of the devastation is being underplayed by American media. This is a disaster that will play out over months and years, not days and weeks.
The major indices still suffered substantial losses, though they easily could have been worse. The intra-day drops of the past two days have broken through support areas - areas that will be retested before any hint of a rally occurs.
Dow 11,855.42, -137.74 (1.15%)
NASDAQ 2,667.33, -33.64 (1.25%)
S&P 500 1,281.87, -14.52 (1.12%)
NYSE Composite 8,092.11, -101.85 (1.24%)
Declining issues slaughtered advancers, 5101-1536. There were 23 new highs on the NASDAQ, but those were overshadowed by 134 new lows. On the NYSE, only 29 stocks hit new highs, while 77 made new lows. This was the 4th consecutive day of new lows beating new highs on the NASDAQ and the second in the last four for the NYSE.
From a technical perspective, the high/low readings are beginning to develop into a trend, which, if confirmed by further continuation, will produce one of the strongest directional indicators to be found. The divergence of new highs and new lows normally becomes a long trm trend, lasting anywhere from six months to more than two years as it is a primary trend indicator. While there are no hard and fast rules surrounding that particular metric, any change lasting more than a week in duration should be confirmation of the new direction of the markets, in this case, down.
What is occurring inside the US markets is very much the result of too much money in the system. Today's action in global markets was a liquidity-driven event, as assets of all nature were liquidated in favor of the relative safety of cash. Since the Federal Reserve has been pumping money out at an unprecedented rate, today's sudden drop and subsequent rally has all the characteristics of a flooded market with an unstable or unreliable base.
It's very much the same as an old car that has trouble starting and running. A jump may get the batteries to deliver enough juice to get it rolling, but problems inside the engine cause it to stall out again. Fixes are short-term, before a mechanic says the engine needs a complete overhaul.
That is precisely the situation in US markets. The issues coming from Japan are masking real, structural problems below and the daily new highs vs. new lows on the NASDAQ are flashing warning lights that many are ignoring at the peril of their capital.
Volume was extremely high today as well, another bearish indication.
NASDAQ Volume 2,371,639,000
NYSE Volume 5,944,351,500
What made matters even more convincing that the drops in global markets were driven by a rush for liquidity were evident in commodities. WTI crude oil futures were absolutely hammered, losing $4.01, to $97.18. We can only hope that the world-wide community can see the oil market for what it really is - bloated with excessive supply and wildly overpriced as compared to real economic conditions - and continue selling it off until balance is restored at around the $75-85 per barrel level.
Gold was hit hard as investors raced into cash positions, losing $32.10 on the day, to 1,392.80, but down much more in earlier trading. Silver also took a substantial hit, off $1.72, to $34.12.
Once there is some clarity to Japan's situation, the precious metals should continue their interrupted rally, or, at the worst, outperform stocks in a big way.
There's still far too much uncertainty in the world to be fooling with paper assets unless you're a skilled day-trader who can afford to take occasional large losses. For the rest of us, the safety and security of gold and/or silver are second to none.
Overnight, conditions in Japan took a turn for the worse as another reactor at the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facility about 100 miles North of Tokyo suffered an explosion. Japanese officials tried to appear calm, but the fear and panic on their faces was not easy to hide. Reactor #2 at the plant incurred a violent explosion that reportedly damaged part of the containment vessel which holds the unstable rods of highly-charged uranium.
Shortly after that blast, a fire in reactor #4 was reported to have occurred in the pools holding spent fuel rods, also highly toxic and radioactive. Reactors #2 and #3 had already been damaged by xplosions in the aftermath of the 9.0 earthquake and tsunami which hit the island nation on Friday.
The Japanese stock market, the NIKKEI 225, suffered a substantial loss of nearly 11% before trading was halted. Other Asian markets took losses as well, and European markets were down more than 2% when stocks opened in New York.
The drop on the open was a stark and panic-stricken response to what appeared to be possible meltdown in the #2 reactor and spreading risk of contamination to a large area of Japan. A radius of 20 kilometers (12 miles) was evacuated and another in another area further out - to 30 kilometers - residents were told to stay inside due to increased risk of exposure to radioactive elements in the air.
Most of the news occurred during the night for Americans, so there was a bit of unease at the open. The Dow fell 310 points in the opening minutes of the session, with the other major indices taking similar falls.
But, as it turns out, that was the worst of it for US stocks, which rallied in a diagonal path all day as no new news came from Japan. While traders put their most optimistic attitude front and center, the conditions in Japan are still very much in a state of flux. For now, most of the damage has been contained, but the risk of complete meltdown of any one of the three badly-damaged reactors is still prevalent, which is why the attitude of the American traders and investors may be a bit premature.
Besides the nuclear plant situation, conditions on about a third of the main island remain challenging and desperate. Aid is only now reaching some of the victims, the death toll continues to mount and reconstruction is still weeks and months from even beginning. The scope of the devastation is being underplayed by American media. This is a disaster that will play out over months and years, not days and weeks.
The major indices still suffered substantial losses, though they easily could have been worse. The intra-day drops of the past two days have broken through support areas - areas that will be retested before any hint of a rally occurs.
Dow 11,855.42, -137.74 (1.15%)
NASDAQ 2,667.33, -33.64 (1.25%)
S&P 500 1,281.87, -14.52 (1.12%)
NYSE Composite 8,092.11, -101.85 (1.24%)
Declining issues slaughtered advancers, 5101-1536. There were 23 new highs on the NASDAQ, but those were overshadowed by 134 new lows. On the NYSE, only 29 stocks hit new highs, while 77 made new lows. This was the 4th consecutive day of new lows beating new highs on the NASDAQ and the second in the last four for the NYSE.
From a technical perspective, the high/low readings are beginning to develop into a trend, which, if confirmed by further continuation, will produce one of the strongest directional indicators to be found. The divergence of new highs and new lows normally becomes a long trm trend, lasting anywhere from six months to more than two years as it is a primary trend indicator. While there are no hard and fast rules surrounding that particular metric, any change lasting more than a week in duration should be confirmation of the new direction of the markets, in this case, down.
What is occurring inside the US markets is very much the result of too much money in the system. Today's action in global markets was a liquidity-driven event, as assets of all nature were liquidated in favor of the relative safety of cash. Since the Federal Reserve has been pumping money out at an unprecedented rate, today's sudden drop and subsequent rally has all the characteristics of a flooded market with an unstable or unreliable base.
It's very much the same as an old car that has trouble starting and running. A jump may get the batteries to deliver enough juice to get it rolling, but problems inside the engine cause it to stall out again. Fixes are short-term, before a mechanic says the engine needs a complete overhaul.
That is precisely the situation in US markets. The issues coming from Japan are masking real, structural problems below and the daily new highs vs. new lows on the NASDAQ are flashing warning lights that many are ignoring at the peril of their capital.
Volume was extremely high today as well, another bearish indication.
NASDAQ Volume 2,371,639,000
NYSE Volume 5,944,351,500
What made matters even more convincing that the drops in global markets were driven by a rush for liquidity were evident in commodities. WTI crude oil futures were absolutely hammered, losing $4.01, to $97.18. We can only hope that the world-wide community can see the oil market for what it really is - bloated with excessive supply and wildly overpriced as compared to real economic conditions - and continue selling it off until balance is restored at around the $75-85 per barrel level.
Gold was hit hard as investors raced into cash positions, losing $32.10 on the day, to 1,392.80, but down much more in earlier trading. Silver also took a substantial hit, off $1.72, to $34.12.
Once there is some clarity to Japan's situation, the precious metals should continue their interrupted rally, or, at the worst, outperform stocks in a big way.
There's still far too much uncertainty in the world to be fooling with paper assets unless you're a skilled day-trader who can afford to take occasional large losses. For the rest of us, the safety and security of gold and/or silver are second to none.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Japan Disaster Dominates Markets
The general perception of the disaster in Japan - caused by a massive 9.0 earthquake and the resultant tsunami - is, as it should be, one that measures the human tragedy above the resultant damage to property and goods. Surely the people whose homes have been either crumpled by the force of the quake or simply washed away by the flooding sea waters face unknown futures.
It is still too early to tell how the government in Japan will deal with the now-homeless residents of the region most-affected, but the initial response has been less-than-heartening. The most glaring examples of ineptitude and unpreparedness have come in the form of communications surrounding the still-unfolding nuclear disaster, the third leg of the crisis and possibly the most severe.
Whether it is unwilling or simply unable to assess the situation at the various reactors that have been damaged, the government's response has been self-contradictory and incorrect at worst or unreliable and confusing at best. What is known is that two reactors at the Fukushima facility have suffered irreparable damage, suffered explosions and possibly begun to partially melt down. Radioactive gasses have been released both on purpose and by accident, though the danger of a full-blown nuclear nightmare still exists, despite many reports to the contrary.
Barring complete and concise factual information, a commodity in quite short supply in the island nation, there is simply no way of knowing exactly the conditions on the ground. As nuclear power events go, this one is still closer to the beginning than the end, though many experts are hopeful that the unstable rods can be quieted with a combination of sea water and boric acid. In any case, reactors #1 and #3 at the facility are kaput, with #2 also reportedly damaged.
An evacuation zone of some 20 kilometers suggests the release of radiation into the atmosphere has already gone well beyond a dangerous level to making the area in a 12-mile radius of the plant temporarily uninhabitable, as is the situation along miles of coastal land subsumed by the tsunami.
Capital and financial markets have done their level best to downplay the short and long term effects of the total disaster, though they too are fishing in a deep and muddied stream of information. There are still too many unknowns to make critical assessments and business decisions. One thing is for certain, that the costs will run much higher than initial estimates of $180 billion. Close to 10% of Japan's population has been directly affected, while the rest of the population has, and will, suffer tangential effects.
To a country as small - geographically - as Japan, this disaster is a game-changer. Even in well-protected Tokyo, there's incidental damage to personal property in addition to a high emotional toll, which would be a mistake to underestimate.
Being one of the largest economies in the world, though one of the least stable, Japan will recover and rebuild, but the effort will take years, not months, after the effects have long since dropped off the top of the news. That's why the markets probably will be unsettled to lower for the near term. The issues facing the Japanese people have the potential to have long-reaching effects into the global economy.
As such, stocks were off world-wide with a few exceptions; the Nikkei was down more than 6%.
In New York, the major indices reversed Friday's gains with a gap-down open, plunged through the morning, settled at resistance and gained into the close, though the effort was more day-trading than anything else. Volume was lower even than Friday, bordering on being one of the slowest trading days of the year.
Dow 11,993.16, -51.24 (0.43%)
NASDAQ 2,700.97, -14.64 (0.54%)
S&P 500 1,296.39, -7.89 (0.60%)
NYSE Composite 8,193.96, -54.57 (0.66%)
Losers backed down winners by a pretty healthy degree, 4416-2088. On the NASDAQ, new lows topped new highs for the third straight session, 75-33. Over on the NYSE, new highs narrowly nipped new lows, 37-30. It is advised to keep a close eye on the daily new highs/lows, because the markets are in flux and seeking direction. It's still looking like a 65-70% probability that the markets have already made a turn and the dominant direction for the next six to eighteen months will be lower.
NASDAQ Volume 1,810,942,250
NYSE Volume 4,571,130,500
Commodities were affected by the Japan disaster, though to a much smaller degree. Front end crude oil on the NYMEX spent most of the day under pressure, but ended up with a marginal gain of just 3 cents, at $101.19. Between the reduced demand in Japan and the still-unsettled situation in the Middle East, prices could go either way, but the trend seems to be following global trends lower.
Gold was up $3.10, to $1,424.90, but silver shed 10 cents, to $35.84. Both of the dominant precious metals are trading near record highs, consolidating for another leap forward. Any major global event of consequence will send both gold and silver off like bottle rockets, though with the momentum already built in, no further catalyst is really needed, as the continual, non-stop printing of fiat dollars, yen, yuan and euros is providing more than enough fuel for the PM fire.
Markets don't get much more distorted and unpredictable than when a major natural disaster unfolds. Putting that on top of an already shaky foundation and wasteful stimulus is a witches brew of unknowable mystical monetary force.
It is still too early to tell how the government in Japan will deal with the now-homeless residents of the region most-affected, but the initial response has been less-than-heartening. The most glaring examples of ineptitude and unpreparedness have come in the form of communications surrounding the still-unfolding nuclear disaster, the third leg of the crisis and possibly the most severe.
Whether it is unwilling or simply unable to assess the situation at the various reactors that have been damaged, the government's response has been self-contradictory and incorrect at worst or unreliable and confusing at best. What is known is that two reactors at the Fukushima facility have suffered irreparable damage, suffered explosions and possibly begun to partially melt down. Radioactive gasses have been released both on purpose and by accident, though the danger of a full-blown nuclear nightmare still exists, despite many reports to the contrary.
Barring complete and concise factual information, a commodity in quite short supply in the island nation, there is simply no way of knowing exactly the conditions on the ground. As nuclear power events go, this one is still closer to the beginning than the end, though many experts are hopeful that the unstable rods can be quieted with a combination of sea water and boric acid. In any case, reactors #1 and #3 at the facility are kaput, with #2 also reportedly damaged.
An evacuation zone of some 20 kilometers suggests the release of radiation into the atmosphere has already gone well beyond a dangerous level to making the area in a 12-mile radius of the plant temporarily uninhabitable, as is the situation along miles of coastal land subsumed by the tsunami.
Capital and financial markets have done their level best to downplay the short and long term effects of the total disaster, though they too are fishing in a deep and muddied stream of information. There are still too many unknowns to make critical assessments and business decisions. One thing is for certain, that the costs will run much higher than initial estimates of $180 billion. Close to 10% of Japan's population has been directly affected, while the rest of the population has, and will, suffer tangential effects.
To a country as small - geographically - as Japan, this disaster is a game-changer. Even in well-protected Tokyo, there's incidental damage to personal property in addition to a high emotional toll, which would be a mistake to underestimate.
Being one of the largest economies in the world, though one of the least stable, Japan will recover and rebuild, but the effort will take years, not months, after the effects have long since dropped off the top of the news. That's why the markets probably will be unsettled to lower for the near term. The issues facing the Japanese people have the potential to have long-reaching effects into the global economy.
As such, stocks were off world-wide with a few exceptions; the Nikkei was down more than 6%.
In New York, the major indices reversed Friday's gains with a gap-down open, plunged through the morning, settled at resistance and gained into the close, though the effort was more day-trading than anything else. Volume was lower even than Friday, bordering on being one of the slowest trading days of the year.
Dow 11,993.16, -51.24 (0.43%)
NASDAQ 2,700.97, -14.64 (0.54%)
S&P 500 1,296.39, -7.89 (0.60%)
NYSE Composite 8,193.96, -54.57 (0.66%)
Losers backed down winners by a pretty healthy degree, 4416-2088. On the NASDAQ, new lows topped new highs for the third straight session, 75-33. Over on the NYSE, new highs narrowly nipped new lows, 37-30. It is advised to keep a close eye on the daily new highs/lows, because the markets are in flux and seeking direction. It's still looking like a 65-70% probability that the markets have already made a turn and the dominant direction for the next six to eighteen months will be lower.
NASDAQ Volume 1,810,942,250
NYSE Volume 4,571,130,500
Commodities were affected by the Japan disaster, though to a much smaller degree. Front end crude oil on the NYMEX spent most of the day under pressure, but ended up with a marginal gain of just 3 cents, at $101.19. Between the reduced demand in Japan and the still-unsettled situation in the Middle East, prices could go either way, but the trend seems to be following global trends lower.
Gold was up $3.10, to $1,424.90, but silver shed 10 cents, to $35.84. Both of the dominant precious metals are trading near record highs, consolidating for another leap forward. Any major global event of consequence will send both gold and silver off like bottle rockets, though with the momentum already built in, no further catalyst is really needed, as the continual, non-stop printing of fiat dollars, yen, yuan and euros is providing more than enough fuel for the PM fire.
Markets don't get much more distorted and unpredictable than when a major natural disaster unfolds. Putting that on top of an already shaky foundation and wasteful stimulus is a witches brew of unknowable mystical monetary force.
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