Hurtling headlong into the holidays, stocks staged a hard rally that lifted all indices. The most obvious signal that rigging and inside baseball are still alive and well on Wall Street came from the Dow Jones Industrials, which managed to add 1000 points over the last three days of the week, reaching a new all-time closing high in the process.
Not as widely mentioned, the NYSE Composite Index also galloped ahead to a fresh record close, finishing at 20,123.45 on Friday. The small and mid-cap exchange is up a solid 19.59% for the year.
Precious metals rebounded with gusto, bitcoin continued to soar toward $100,000, and even oil got some bids. Investing in just about anything paid off pretty well this week and overall year-to-date.
As election excitement faded back toward the usual bickering, partisan squabbling, and in-fighting that characterizes the U.S. political system, investors seemed to sense that the status quo wouldn't be easily overwhelmed by the upstart Trump team members. Matt Gaetz, Trump's in-your-face pick for Attorney General only had to spend one day meeting with unsupportive Senators to withdraw his name from the nomination. Other nominees remained ready to testify and fight the good fight.
Quietly, late Friday, Trump's team put up Scott Bessent as the nominee for Treasury Secretary, a choice that will find friendly supporters on capitol hill.
Bessent, 62, is the founder of hedge fund Key Square Capital Management and a former professor at Yale University. Openly gay, Bessent had connections to Soros Fund Management at various times since 1991. While those credentials are sure to be applauded by Democrats, many true Trumpsters did not warm well to the choice. As head of one of the most impactful departments in Washington, Bessent's selection appears almost an appeasement to the left. None dare criticize too harshly a member of the alternative, especially one with approval from top Wall Street managers, which Bessent has apparently won over. The nominee will sail through the advise and consent process with flying colors.
On the bright side, ceding the position of the nation's financial overseer to a person who's neither an alumnus of Goldman Sachs or the Federal Reserve is a step in the right direction. Bessent has expressed favorable views toward deregulation, deficits, government downsizing, and mass deportation of illegal aliens as preferable to the costs of increased crime and expense in allowing them safe harbor.
A number of people in Trump's camp, including billionaire Elon Musk, preferred Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick to head Treasury. Lutnick, who is co-chair of the Trump transition team, has been chosen for Commerce Secretary, a position of vital importance that will be tasked with implementing Trump's tax ad tariff agenda.
The choices for Treasury and Commerce appear to strike a reasoned balance for U.S. economic interests.
Stocks
The Shiller PE ratio remains near the third highest all-time level, reading 38.07 at the week's end. Anticipating a holiday upswing and a Santa rally, markets seem to see no impediments to bubbling up even higher. Bullish sentiment is extremely high and markets overbought, though that does not appear to matter.
Tuesday will be the most impactful day for earnings, with retail and tech stragglers reporting.
In the morning, prior to the opening bell, are Burlington (BURL), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl's (KSS), Macy's (M), Best Buy (BBY), and Analog Devices (ADI). After the close, Dell (DELL), HP Inc. (HPQ), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Nordstrom (JWN), and Urban Outfitters (URBN) release quarterly results.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 10/18/2024 | 4.92 | 4.82 | 4.73 | 4.65 | 4.45 | 4.19 |
| 10/25/2024 | 4.89 | 4.79 | 4.73 | 4.68 | 4.51 | 4.29 |
| 11/01/2024 | 4.75 | 4.74 | 4.61 | 4.53 | 4.42 | 4.28 |
| 11/08/2024 | 4.70 | 4.69 | 4.63 | 4.53 | 4.42 | 4.32 |
| 11/15/2024 | 4.70 | 4.67 | 4.60 | 4.52 | 4.44 | 4.34 |
| 11/22/2024 | 4.72 | 4.67 | 4.63 | 4.53 | 4.46 | 4.42 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 10/18/2024 | 3.95 | 3.86 | 3.88 | 3.97 | 4.08 | 4.44 | 4.38 |
| 10/25/2024 | 4.11 | 4.05 | 4.07 | 4.15 | 4.25 | 4.58 | 4.51 |
| 11/01/2024 | 4.21 | 4.18 | 4.22 | 4.30 | 4.37 | 4.68 | 4.57 |
| 11/08/2024 | 4.26 | 4.18 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 4.30 | 4.58 | 4.47 |
| 11/15/2024 | 4.31 | 4.27 | 4.30 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| 11/22/2024 | 4.37 | 4.32 | 4.30 | 4.35 | 4.41 | 4.67 | 4.60 |
Treasuries were barely moved over the course of the week and there doesn't appear to be any significant catalyst one way or the other. Flat will be the structure until the Fed decides its next policy move on December 17-18, the last FOMC meeting of 2024.
Currently, opinions are split over another 25 basis point drop in the federal funds rate or none at all at the upcoming meeting, though it's almost too obvious to point out that a cut of 0.25% on the very shortest end would accomplish normalization and upsloping across the yield curve, a likely desire of the Fed and Chairman Powell prior to President Trump's inauguration.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil prices broke its downward momentum, closing at $71.81 on Friday, up sharply from $66.88 at last week's New York close, a powerful move of more than seven percent. Oil traders have ceased fretting over the Middle East, which seems to be somewhat subdued, for now, and instead focused on escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, as the U.S. green-lighted Ukraine's use of long-range missile strikes into Russia.
ATACMs and Storm Shadow missiles aiming at targets in Russia's Bryansk and Kursk regions fell short of achieving their goals according to Russian military sources and President Putin himself.
Russia's response to the attacks was to strike a military-industrial complex near Dnipro using a new intermediate-range ballistic missile called "Oreshnik", which means hazel tree in Russia, along with stern warnings to NATO countries from Putin and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Around the attacks and subsequent Russian retaliation hysterical Western media were warning about World War III and the ultimate use of nuclear weapons. Since there have been no cities incinerated and turned to ashes so far, the doomsday clock moving ever closer to midnight is not something most people are very concerned about, and with good reason. Any nuclear exchange would likely result in enormous, horrifying damage and loss of life and is not something sane people would even consider. Of course, for the time being, the U.S. and Europe are being led by individuals who may come up a bit short on the sanity test, so, the waiting-out time until January 20 of next year, at least, may remain in a somewhat precarious condition.
That increases the likelihood of a near-term rise in oil prices, though by how much remains to be seen. There's still the supply-demand issue of too much oil production and slowing demand, from both a seasonal and cyclical perspective. If nuclear options are eventually employed, the price of home heating fuel or petrol for automotive use would be among the least of people's worries. Thus, gains in WTI and Brent crude the past week are probably little more than knee-jerk responses to more military posturing by NATO and Russia.
Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.04 a gallon, down a penny from the prior week.
California continues to be the price leader, at $4.41 a gallon, down marginally from the prior week.
Pennsylvania prices continue to head lower, at $3.24, with the Keystone State holding the high price in the Northeast, approaching the lowest level in three years. New York was slightly higher, at $3.13. Connecticut ($3.05) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were slightly higher, but Maryland slipped six cents to $3.12 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest continue to decline, with Illinois continuing lower ($3.15).
Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.46) continue to be by far the lowest in the nation, quite a bit lower than the #2 spot, held by Mississippi, at $2.59. Following are Texas ($2.61), Arkansas ($2.62), Louisiana ($2.64), and Nebraska ($2.68). Florida ($3.03) remains the Southern outsider, with all Southeastern states well below $3.00, including Georgia ($2.92) and North Carolina ($2.86).
Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 29 U.S. states, mostly in the Southeast and Midwest, but now spreading west, with Montana and Wyoming joining the sub-$3.00 party.
Western states are still the highest overall. Arizona ($3.20) was up five cents on the week, with Oregon at $3.55, Nevada at $3.67, and Washington at $3.95, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($3.04) and Idaho ($3.09) were both lower on the week, remaining well below summer prices and apparently offering gas under $3.00 in some locales.
Bitcoin
This week: $97,283.64
Last week: $90,205.13
2 weeks ago: $79,690.52
6 months ago: $67,851.91
One year ago: $37,807.90
Five years ago: $7,333.47
Bitcoin remains atop the asset leaderboard, up a stunning 120% year-to-date and more than 40% since the November 5 U.S. elections, edging ever-so-close to $100,000, topping out at $99,436 this week.
A move beyond $100,000 could spur another spurt forward. Trump's selection of Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department and the announcement this week that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler would retire from the position upon Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025 are positive developments for the crypto universe.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.13; last week: 84.65
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 10/25: $2,754.60
Gold price 11/1: $2,745.90
Gold price 11/8: $2,691.70
Gold price 11/15: $2,567.40
Gold price 11/22: $2,743.20
Silver price 10/25: $33.88
Silver price 11/1: $32.58
Silver price 11/8: $31.42
Silver price 11/15: $30.33
Silver price 11/22: $31.85
After suffering through two weeks of election euphoria headlined by a stronger dollar, precious metals made a comeback over the past week, with gold prices up more than four percent while silver lagged, but still moved forward, posting a gain of two percent.
In dollar terms, gold was up $176, silver ahead by $1.52.
Silver remains narrowly ahead of gold year-to-date, 32.69% to 32.02%. Silver's slowness to recover moved the gold:silver ratio up to 86.13, the highest in five weeks, though still not in a "sell gold, buy silver" condition.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 30.00 | 45.00 | 39.09 | 38.50 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 37.00 | 48.68 | 40.82 | 39.60 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 2,815.20 | 2,929.58 | 2,891.55 | 2,903.26 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 2,817.20 | 2,888.95 | 2,837.75 | 2,829.21 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained ground this week, to $39.50, an improvement of $1.48 over the November 17 price of $38.02 per troy ounce.
Premia on silver and gold continue to reflect sufficient demand. Buyers seem to be unconcerned about the recent pullback. India's festival season and the November-March wedding season, in addition to Western holidays, followed by Chinese New Year bodes well for gold near term. Silver continues to be more suppressed on the Comex. Viewed more as an industrial metal than for investment purposes, the influence of large foreign buyers, especially India and China, has to factor into price calculations, though silver will ultimately align with gold. albeit at a gold:silver ratio that is, by historical standards, an extreme aberration.
WEEKEND WRAP
A truncated holiday week will be punctuated by U.S. market closure on Thursday (Thanksgiving) and a short session on Black Friday. Indications are bullish for stocks and commodities and stable for fixed income.
At the Close, Friday, November 22, 2024:
Dow: 44,296.51, +426.16 (+0.97%)
NASDAQ: 19,003.65, +31.23 (+0.16%)
S&P 500: 5,969.34, +20.63 (+0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 20,123.45, +155.15 (+0.78%)
For the Week:
Dow: +851.52 (+1.96%)
NASDAQ: +323.53 (+1.73%)
S&P 500: +98.72 (+1.68%)
NYSE Composite: +477.68 (+2.43%)
Dow Transports: +139.00 (+0.81%)
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