Friday's rally wasn't enough to reverse losses, however. Only the NYSE Composite ended the week with a plus sign. The Dow was down for the fourth time in the last five weeks with the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirming a primary market reversal from bull to bear, also lower four of the last five.
The NASDAQ and S&P indices appear to be content defying gravity and reality for now, their losses marginal over the past month.
With just two trading sessions in the 2025 book, clearly, the market is on uncertain footing. We're just getting started.
Stocks
For an asset manager's perspective, Maximilian McKechnie, JP Morgan's Global Market Strategist, offers a straightforward account of the year just passed and some cool charts in support of his findings.
Morningstar's 2024 in Review and 2025 Market Outlook is also well-presented.
Anybody who hold stocks or was invested in a passive index fund received solid returns in 2024. The NASDAQ led the world (outside of bitcoin), with a gain of 30.8%, while the S&P rallied all year, up 24.0%.
The market is bracing itself for the Trump tsunami, his polies certain to cause some degree of agita in corporate suites and brokerage houses. Good or bad, the government needs fixing badly. Trump, Musk, and Ramaswamy are going to take big swipes at broad swaths of the government bureaucracy. How congress and Wall Street responds will prove impactful to all investors and even lowly citizens.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 11/29/2024 | 4.76 | 4.69 | 4.58 | 4.52 | 4.42 | 4.30 |
| 12/06/2024 | 4.57 | 4.50 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 4.19 |
| 12/13/2024 | 4.43 | 4.43 | 4.34 | 4.36 | 4.32 | 4.24 |
| 12/20/2024 | 4.43 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.27 |
| 12/27/2024 | 4.44 | 4.43 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.20 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4.44 | 4.35 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.25 | 4.18 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 11/29/2024 | 4.13 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 4.10 | 4.18 | 4.45 | 4.36 |
| 12/06/2024 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 4.03 | 4.09 | 4.15 | 4.42 | 4.34 |
| 12/13/2024 | 4.25 | 4.21 | 4.25 | 4.33 | 4.40 | 4.69 | 4.61 |
| 12/20/2024 | 4.30 | 4.32 | 4.37 | 4.45 | 4.52 | 4.79 | 4.72 |
| 12/27/2024 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 4.45 | 4.53 | 4.62 | 4.89 | 4.82 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4.28 | 4.32 | 4.41 | 4.51 | 4.60 | 4.88 | 4.82 |
The 10-year note went on a roller coaster ride in 2024, starting out in January at 3.95%, peaking in April at 4.70% before falling to a low of 3.63% in mid-September. It spent the final three months defying the Fed's rate cuts, rising to a high of 4.62% on December 27. In effect, while the Fed was busy cutting the federal funds rate by one percent, the 10-year note rebelled, rising by almost the exact same amount. The take-away is clear: fixed income purchasers aren't buying it. The outcome will be exciting as the new year progresses. To see who is wrong-footed - the Fed or the bond vigilantes - will require extra bags of popcorn.
For whatever it's worth, the Fed has nearly achieved an unclenching of the inverted yield curve. There still exists a downslope from 1-month bills all the way out to five-year notes, but a couple more 25 basis point rate cuts early this year should eliminate that problem and iron out the wrinkles. When the flattening of the curve is complete, the Fed may actually be praised for its support of diversity, equity, and inclusion.
Unfortunately, all bonds are not created equal.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil shot up wildly over the holiday, closing at $74.07 Friday, up nearly $4 from last Friday's close at $70.26. There's little explanation for this price movement other than speculation in the futures markets. Nothing in current production levels and consumer demand indicate that the pric of oil should be higher.
Even with this week's bump and the month-long gain that started from December 6 at $67.20, oil prices are still much lower than summer's pricing above $82/barrel. This appears to be nothing more than a response rally, unless there's something the oil barons aren't telling everybody else, which is always a possibility.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump of $3.05 a gallon, up four cents from last week.
California continues to be the price leader, at $4.35 a gallon, still well below prices prevailing during the summer.
Pennsylvania prices were up six cents this week, at $3.27, with the Keystone State continuing as the price leader in the Northeast. New York was unmoved, at $3.10. Connecticut ($3.00) and Massachusetts ($2.99) were slightly lower, while Maryland's price jumped to $3.13, following weeks of sub-$3 prices. Even with the holiday travel boost, prices remain close to 42-month lows.
Illinois dropped a penny to $3.18. Ohio ($3.12) and Indiana ($3.11) were only under $3 for about a week, now rising.
Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.50) continue to be the lowest in the nation, despite rising three cents this week. Following are Mississippi ($2.57), Texas ($2.63), Kansas ($2.66), Louisiana ($2.68), and Arkansas ($2.69. Tennessee shows $2.73. Alabama, $2.74, Missouri, $2.74, and South Carolina, $2.75. Florida's is up again, at $3.10, Georgia remains sub-$3 at $2.89.
Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in less than 28 U.S. states, down from 32 a week ago. The Northeast and West coast remain over-$3.00 holdouts.
Arizona ($3.02) continued its long trend lower, though slower. Oregon checked in at $3.53, Nevada at $3.56, and Washington at $3.87, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($3.03) and Idaho ($3.05) remain just above the $3.00 threshold.
Bitcoin
This week: $97,453.01
Last week: $94,597.53
2 weeks ago: $95,712.22
6 months ago: $56,420.53
One year ago: $44,003.69
Five years ago: $8,020.98
With the holidays over, buyers of Bitcoin poured back into cyber-space, lifting Bitcoin's price by nearly $3,000. Speculators - which is all hodlers are, really - remain hopeful of the ridiculous notion that the United States will establish a "Bitcoin Reserve" once President Trump and his minions take control in D.C.
Should such an overtly absurd concept ever become a reality (it won't), the "reserve" would likely be raided by our congressional overlords who can't seem to keep their hands off any financial asset, real, or imagined.
The mindset of bitcoiners is one that envisions a world in which Social Security benefits, EBT cards, government pensions, and a slew of other entitlements would be doled out over the bitcoin blockchain (or some newly-developed CBDC) or settled in Ethereum smart contracts. Granny may have to brush up her computer and smart phone skills for such a dystopian scam, should it ever materialize.
Nonetheless, crypto adherents are all fine with that, these mental midgets slavishly follow any pied piper preaching eternal wealth without working.
Bitcoin, and the entire crypto universe is a fallacy. There's actually nothing supporting a Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap of $3,478,109,967,972 other than nearly-blind faith, FOMO, and greed.
That's OK, for speculators. The rest of the world is still happy using fiat currencies backed by "full faith and credit" of various governments in the U.S., Eurozone, China, Japan, et. al. The human population has been conditioned to believe in myths for centuries. From antiquity to the present day, this is nothing new.
It's in the Bible:
"What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun." - Ecclesiastes 1:9
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.13; last week: 87.50
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 12/6: $2,654.90
Gold price 12/13: $2,665.90
Gold price 12/20: $2,640.50
Gold price 12/27: $2,636.50
Gold price 1/5: $2,652.70
Silver price 12/6: $31.49
Silver price 12/13: $31.00
Silver price 12/20: $30.08
Silver price 12/27: $29.98
Silver price 1/5: $30.10
Both gold and silver started the new year off with a bang, with gold hitting a high of $2,679.00 on Thursday, the 2nd, and silver as high as $30.33 on Friday, January 3rd. As has been common practice of late, when the dollar and stocks rallied on Friday (a rather ordinary practice, though suspicious), precious metals prices were slashed.
It seems apparent that gold buyers, particularly national central banks and sovereign wealth funds, have not given up on the metal. China has been shoring up reserves of gold at a blistering pace the past two years, and buying copious amounts of gold and silver over the past 10-15 years both through its official channels and by purchases from its citizenry. Russia, forced to diversify reserves out of euros and dollar-denominated investments (T-bills), has amassed an enormous stockpile of gold and recently announced intentions to buy silver in quantity. Both Asian powers continue to accumulate precious metals in deference to the U.S. dollar.
Gauged by activity on eBay and online retailers, individual investors are flush with cash and buying freely, suggestive of an attitude that regards elevated premia are merely a market function and presager of future prices. Nobody is particularly concerned about buying smaller amounts of finished products at $100-150 over spot for gold and anywhere from $5 to $10 over silver spot. The satisfaction of owning an asset with no counter-party risk outside the debt-based monetary regime seems a reward worth the extra cash.
The gold:silver ratio has continued to rise, nearing nosebleed levels. This week's reading of 88.13 keeps silver stackers plunging in for post-holiday purchases. Buying has been robust. Reversion to the mean is an eventuality for all markets. How and when silver becomes priced properly is a function of international commerce, emerging exchanges in BRICS+ countries (China, Russia, UAE, in particular) to rival the COMEX, and supply-demand dynamics. While there seems to be no shortage of gold available in quantity (for now), silver's deficit is a matter of public record, and growing. Beyond the riggers at the COMEX and LBMA, industrial demand has slowed to a snail's pace as global economies continue to sputter.
There will come a reckoning and precious metals' date with destiny to be approaching apace.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 30.00 | 48.88 | 39.70 | 40.22 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 36.00 | 48.95 | 39.50 | 38.75 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 2,740.00 | 2,837.07 | 2,788.49 | 2,789.46 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 2,746.85 | 2,807.53 | 2,771.61 | 2,759.85 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell slightly, to $39.54, a loss of 63 cents from the December 29 price of $40.15 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
15 days and counting until the Biden years get swept unceremoniously into the dustbin of history.
Look for prices of lots of things - particularly food, gas, housing, and electronics - to come down over the next six months. About a third of all Americans are completely priced out and tapped out. Unless one envisions a depression-era scenario, that is not at all sustainable.
At the Close, Friday, December 27, 2024:
Dow: 42,732.13, +339.86 (+0.80%)
NASDAQ: 19,621.68, +340.88 (+1.77%)
S&P 500: 5,942.47, +73.92 (+1.26%)
NYSE Composite: 19,254.29, +158.88 (+0.83%)
For the Week:
Dow: -260.08 (-0.60%)
NASDAQ: -100.35 (-0.35%)
S&P 500: -28.37 (-0.48%)
NYSE Composite: +15.81 (+0.08%)
Dow Transports: -23.64 (-0.15%)
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