WEEKEND WRAP: Bank Earnings, CPI Tea Leaves Lead Stock Rally; Oil Continues to Climb as Trump Inauguration Approaches

Stocks jumped the gun on the inauguration with a big week highlighted by CPI from December and bank earnings from the likes of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup.

Big banks appear to be on solid footing with deposits growing and increased M&A activity. Wall Street cheered itself for undercutting inflation forecasts, spurring a wild Wednesday romp with more carryover effects Friday.

Stocks

Stocks turned in their best week since November, putting January solidly back in positive territory after some early new year jitters. The Dow and NYSE Composite out-performed the S&P and NASDAQ, though all the majors were markedly higher with Wednesday's big rally taking a day off Thursday before returning with gusto on Friday.

After two straight years of gains and a new sheriff in town (Trump), Wall Street is desperate to keep the punch bowl filled at all costs. There are uncertainties aplenty, which brings into question the wisdom of big gains just prior to expectations for big changes. Normally, as was demonstrable earlier in January, the stock market hates uncertainty. This week's rally may have been something on the order of a bull trap or a condition of "buy the rumor, sell the news." The coming week will provide more clues to the general direction of stocks, both near and long term.

Earnings will be highlighted in the coming week. After the nation's largest banks turned in solid fourth quarters, traders are expected good things through first quarter earnings season, with the bulk of publicly-owned companies reporting over the next three weeks. With Monday a national holiday (Martin Luther King Day), markets will be shuttered Monday. The big names to watch for earnings releases this week are the following:

Tuesday: CapitalOne (COF), 3M (MMM), Zions Bancorporation (ZION), DR Horton (DHI), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL)

Wednesday: Discover (DFS), Alcoa (AA), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Abbot Labs (ABT), Halliburton (HAL), Ally Bank (ALLY), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Travelers (TRV), Comerica (CMA)

Thursday: American Airlines (AAL), CSX (CXS), McCormick (MKC), Union Pacific (UNP), Covenant Health (CVLG), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Friday: Ericsson (ERIC), Verizon (VZ), American Express (AXP)

The data calendar is light. Trump's Executive Orders and proclamations from the Oval Office will be the huge focus for the week and probably for many more weeks ahead.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
12/13/2024	4.43	4.43	4.34	4.36	4.32	4.24
12/20/2024	4.43	4.42	4.34	4.35	4.29	4.27
12/27/2024	4.44	4.43	4.31	4.35	4.29	4.20
01/03/2025	4.44	4.35	4.34	4.31	4.25	4.18
01/10/2025	4.42	4.35	4.36	4.33	4.27	4.25
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
12/13/2024	4.25	4.21	4.25	4.33	4.40	4.69	4.61
12/20/2024	4.30	4.32	4.37	4.45	4.52	4.79	4.72
12/27/2024	4.31	4.36	4.45	4.53	4.62	4.89	4.82
01/03/2025	4.28	4.32	4.41	4.51	4.60	4.88	4.82
01/10/2025	4.40	4.46	4.59	4.70	4.77	5.04	4.96
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84

After rising by roughly one percent from when the Fed began lowering the federal funds target rate in September, 2024, longer maturities (2 years out to 30 years) began to backtrack after December CPI showed the core falling short of expectations, even though headline year-over-year CPI has risen the last three months, from 2.4% in September, to 2.6% in October, 2.7% in November, and the latest, 2.9% for December.

Wall Street sorely needs January to come in positive, bolstering the concept that January presages the market for the rest of the year. Thus, analysts and stock-pumpers cherry-picked the CPI number, finding one that they liked, ignoring the undeniable fact - provided by their very own number-fudgers at the BLS - that inflation continues to rise overall. Prices are not coming down; they're only rising at a slower pace than recently.

It needs to be pointed out that the Fed's ill-advised 100 basis points worth of cuts in September, November, and December, had the expected effect of causing price increases on most goods and services. The Fed, trapped as it is, continues to try to walk the tightrope between keeping the economy chugging along and keeping prices under control. They're actually failing at both.

With Trump readying tariffs on almost anything that is imported into the U.S., the Fed and their Wall Street banking cohorts continue to pedal the lie that inflation is under control and the economy is strong. The next three to six months will provide evidence as to whether they are right or lying through clenched teeth.

Spreads contracted, with 2s-10s dropping three basis points, and full spectrum (30 days out to 30 years) flattening by 13 basis points, from +54 to +41 over the course of the week.

As with stocks, there was some racing to get ahead of the pack prior to the completion of presidential transition on Monday. Whether they were prescient or just plucky will begin to become clear within the first 10 days of Trump's administration.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1.17: +34

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil continued to ride higher, finishing out the week at $77.37, up from $75.70 the prior Friday, the fourth straight week of rising price action. Wednesday's CPI reading from December produced most of the rally, hitting a high of $79.14 before backing off Thursday and Friday.

This week's jump in oil futures sent oil prices closer to summer levels that peaked above $82/barrel. How well this pric action continues to hold after Monday's inauguration of Donald J. Trump and his "drill, baby, drill" mantra is largely dependent on press attitudes and what comes off the president's desk his first week back in the Oval Office. With a heavy agenda, oil may be left to its own accord, though Trump is very likely to issue Executive Orders to reverse much of what the Biden White House destroyed of oil and capital markets the past four years.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up seven cents from last week, checking in at $3.12 a gallon Sunday morning.

California continues to be the national price leader, at $4.41 a gallon.

Pennsylvania prices jumped eight cents, at $3.34, with the Keystone State the price leader in the Northeast. New York saw a slightly smaller change, at $3.14. Connecticut ($3.07) was up slightly while Massachusetts ($3.01) was higher by just three cents, returning back above the $3.00 threshold. Maryland prices jacked higher by 22 cents, at $3.32.

Illinois advanced only two cents, to $3.24. Ohio (#3.11) and Indiana ($3.10) again returned back above $3.00 after just one week below.

Mississippi took over as low price leader, snatching the crown from Oklahoma with a price of $2.65, while the Sooner State came in at $2.67. Following are Texas ($2.69), Arkansas ($2.70), and Louisiana ($2.71). Those are followed by Alabama ($2.77), Tennessee ($2.78), Kansas ($2.80), and South Carolina ($2.81). Florida's was up seven cents, at $3.18, Georgia crept closer to $3, showing $2.95 this weekend.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in only 28 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast remain largely over-$3.00 holdouts.

Arizona ($3.11) was up eight cents from a week ago. Oregon showed prices higher, at $3.49, Nevada at $3.62, and Washington at $3.90, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($2.97) and Idaho ($3.01) were both lower for the week.

Bitcoin

This week: $105,074.80
Last week: $94,640.44
2 weeks ago: $97,453.01
6 months ago: $66,693.20
One year ago: $41,705.26
Five years ago: $9,895.13

Bitcoin moved higher again this week, promoted by some reporting that the incoming Trump administration plans on removing many of the regulations surrounding crypto ownership. With changes afoot at the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the idea is that with an administration's full embrace of crypto's potential, the United States will become the de facto leader of crypto adoption. In many ways, it already is, though that doesn't prevent the usual suspects from pushing their agenda to extremes, including the concept of the U.S. establishing a "bitcoin reserve". While the idea of the U.S. government becoming huge hodlers of vaporware currency appeals to the baser instincts of the crypto future crowd, it remains to be seen what the U.S. government plans on doing with its money in the face of exploding national debt and a debased currency. Establishing a new currency standard isn't something the world would take lightly. Basing one on currency that is ethereal, but also highly traceable, as bitcoin and most other cryptos are, seems to be quite the canard, an unworkable direction that leads, ultimately to anathema of the crypto universe, CBDCs. Crypto adherents had better not hope to hard, because they might get exactly what they want, with unexpected attachments and unwieldy consequences.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.24; last week: 86.82

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 12/20: $2,640.50
Gold price 12/27: $2,636.50
Gold price 1/5: $2,652.70
Gold price 1/12: $2,717.40
Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00

Silver price 12/20: $30.08
Silver price 12/27: $29.98
Silver price 1/5: $30.10
Silver price 1/12: $31.30
Silver price 1/19: $31.05

Gold continued it's upside momentum, while silver made impressive gains Wednesday, only to give the bulk of them back, and then some, Thursday and Friday.

Judging by activity on eBay, a silver mania is developing, with small fry (average Joes and Janes) evidencing a propensity to throw caution to the wind as they continue stacking and saving for the future and against the corrupt fiat regime they clearly see faltering on multiple fronts, not the least of which are inflation (money creation, currency debasement) and the threat from BRICS in the formation of a global financial duopoly with the U.S. dollar - and by extension, the euro, yen, and pound - taking a beating.

Even though stocks had a very good week and are tracking towards a positive bent to the important month of January, precious metals have not backed down much from autumn 2024's highs. Gold is clearly fetching over $2,800 on one-ounce pieces and much higher on a per-ounce basis on fractional coins and bars. Silver, at least near term, has avoided further price deterioration and shortages continue to mount. COMEX prices are one thing. Buying coins and bars at $10 or more over spot indicates a large and growing cohort seeking relief and better accounting for what determines wealth and value.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	34.99	49.99	43.24	42.44
1 oz silver bar:	36.96	47.95	41.37	40.58
1 oz gold coin:	2,818.10	2,912.22	2,863.58	2,869.90
1 oz gold bar:	2,812.38	2,888.37	2,835.72	2,824.61

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose moderately, to $41.91, an increase of 64 cents from the January 12 price of $41.27 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

One more day. Will the nightmare of the last four years vanish in an instant or will there be continued pushback from the open borders, DEI non-conformists as there was in Trump's first term?

Hope against hope that the former is the case, but, knowing the depth of depravity that dwells within the deep state, the latter seems more likely.

At the Close, Friday, January 10, 2025:
Dow: 43,487.83, +334.70 (+0.78%)

NASDAQ: 19,630.20, +291.91 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: 5,996.66, +59.32 (+1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 19,607.37, +58.74 (+0.30%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1549.38 (+3.69%)
NASDAQ: +468.57 (+2.45%)
S&P 500: +169.62 (+2.91%)
NYSE Composite: +644.36 (+3.40%)
Dow Transports: +507.84 (+3.19%)

Trump Inauguration Looming, Stocks Ready to Close Out Week of Big Gains; Bitcoin Moves Past $100,000 Again; Gold, Silver Lower

Stocks took a step back on Thursday, failing to extend the "inflation is defeated" rally from Wednesday on the back of sketchy CPI data which showed Y-O-Y CPI increasing from 2.7% in October, to 2.8% in November, to 2.9% in December. All Wall Street seemed to care about was core CPI, which fell slightly.

With futures soaring pre-market, the Street appears ready to resume "buy everything" mode. The morning's upside can be traced to animal spirits, an announcement by the IMF, which said it raised its growth forecast for the United States to 2.7% for 2025, and a few more earnings beats.

Stocks appear set for a banner week, with the Dow up 1214 points through Thursday's closing bell. NASDAQ is up 176, S&P 500 ahead by 110 on the week.

Bitcoin has rallied all week and is once again above $100,000, nearly hitting $103,000 early Friday. Of course, gold and silver are lower.

This market has a unique tendency to celebrate itself, no matter the economic data or real world conditions. However, Thursday saw the return of that nasty bear market chart pattern of being up early and down late. Sometimes - and on Wall Street - it's nearly all the time, the obvious signal gets lost in the noise, and this is a very noise market.

Happy Weekend! If the world survives the weekend, Donald J. Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United states on Monday. Fingers crossed.

At the Close, Thursday, Janaury 16, 2025:
Dow: 43,153.13, -68.42 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 19,338.29, -172.95 (-0.89%)
S&P 500: 5,937.34, -12.57 (-0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 19,548.63, +125.92 (+0.65%)

Stocks Rallied Hard Wednesday on Bank Earnings and Mild CPI; Thursday Setting Up a Bit More Calm; Gold, Silver, Oil Also Big Winners

Earnings for the biggest U.S. banks continue to roll out with positive results for the fourth quarter of 2024. Thursday morning saw reports from Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC (PNC), and US Bankcor (USB), all of which featured earnings beats and generally glowing quarterly results.

Despite the positive news in the financial sector, banks which reported this morning haven't quite caught fire with traders. Bank of America is flat pre-market, US Bancor actually missed EPS estimates and is down 2.5%, and PNC, despite a huge beat, is down around three percent, roughly the same as it was up during yesterday's rally. Morgan Stanley is up more than two percent prior to the open.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) is getting good vibes after another knockout quarter, setting new records with a 57% profit surge to $11.4 billion and a 39% revenue hike to $26.88 billion. Shares are boosted more than five percent an hour prior to the opening bell. United Health (UNH) beat on the earnings side, but revenues took a hit. The stock is being punished to the tune of a four percent decline.

Retail sales for December were modest, up 0.4%, and up 3.9 percent from December 2023. Total sales 2024 were up 3.0 percent from 2023 according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which supplied the report.

There might be some hangover from Wednesday's surge in stock prices. Futures have been trending down most of the morning, with Dow futures in the red by more than 100 points. S&P and NASDAQ futures are clinging to small gains after the retail sales report didn't move the needle much.

The big winners Wednesday outside of stocks were crude oil, gold, and silver. WTI crude hit a high of $79.15 just as the stock market closed and has dipped back down to $78.40. Gold advanced through the day Wednesday, starting from a low of $2,673.80 to close out in New York at $2,722.20 and is moving higher Thursday morning, at $2,742.50. That's a $69 move in just more than a day on the COMEX. Silver's move was even more pronounced, starting from a low of $30.20 at 12:30 am ET Wednesday, this morning topping out at $31.98.

Bond traders got some relief from the dovish inflation figures, sending note yields lower. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped from 4.78% to 4.66%, and the drops on shorter maturities (2-year out to 7-year) were in the same ballpark, the 7-year falling by 15 basis points.

It remains to be seen if Wednesday's big move in stocks will carry over to the rest of the week. From the looks of the futures, the rally appears to have lost some of its mojo. There's still some apprehension concerning the regime change in Washington to take place on Monday. Biden out, Trump in, seems like a no-brainer, but those with less itchy trading fingers may still be taking a wait-and-see approach.

Thursday, Friday and most of Monday remain under the inauguration cloud. With CPI out of the way and the upcoming FOMC meeting likely to produce a pause in the rate cutting rigamarole, things could calm down a bit.

Thursday's rally did manage to put the majors back on a positive footing for January, but they remain below levels from early December. There's still time to get stocks moving forward and put a positive spin on January, which would be important as many a trader believes that the first month foreshadows the rest of the year.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 15, 2025:
Dow: 43,221.55, +703.27 (+1.65%)
NASDAQ: 19,511.23, +466.84, (+2.45%)
S&P 500: 5,949.91, +107.00, (+1.83%)
NYSE Composite: 19,422.71, +246.06 (+1.28%)

December CPI at 0.4%, 2.9% Rise Year-over-Year is Cause for Celebration on Wall Street; Futures Soar; Oil at 4-Month High

With the inauguration of President Trump less than a week away, there was no lack of gamesmanship and late-day tape-painting in financial markets Tuesday.

The repetitive bearish chart pattern of the major indices opening higher and stumbling lower throughout the session prevailed again on Tuesday. The Dow was the lone survivor, ending the day with gains beyond the gap-up open. Though the S&P posted an insignificant gain, it spent much of the session in negative territory. The NASDAQ was bruised, the 41-point gain overshadowed by new intra-day lows at 18,926.60. It was off more than 150 points just 45 minutes prior to the closing bell. Market riggers furiously bought shares and covered shorts in the final minutes anticipating another boost to the futures when December CPI figures are released Wendesday morning.

Those who bought up NASDAQ and Dow shares into Tuesday's close were on the right track. Just after 8:00 am ET, NASDAQ futures were up more than 80 points, but the Dow was flying higher, adding more than 200 (+0.48%).

Following the PPI figures on Tuesday which beat expectations (lower than forecast), there seemed ot be little in the way of anxiety over the CPI. Fuel prices were sure to cause a bump, but investors appeared confident that the numbers would not upset the status quo, in the belief that the Fed had done enough to quell the inflation beast and might possibly continue lowering rates later in the year. Hopes for a fourth straight rate cut have been dashed due to last week's December Non-farm Payroll data, which came in stronger than anticipated, with 256,000 new jobs minted in the final month of 2024.

Despite the knowledge that the BLS numbers are almost always wrong and subject to revisions, Wall Street gamblers rely upon them nonetheless in making trades, just another example of mal-investment and wild speculation based on faulty assumptions. Wall Street continues to trend overwhelmingly bullish, despite recent losses on all of the major indices. Since early December, stocks have been under pressure. The vaunted Santa Claus rally never materialized, yet the lower Manhattan crowd still buys into myths like Santa, the Tooth Fairy, Easter Bunny, unicorns, non-farm payrolls, and retail sales, which will be released Thursday morning.

Wednesday's enthusiasm prior to the CPI release had much to do with bank earnings reported by BlackRock, Bank of New York Mellon (BK), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Goldman Sachs (GS), all of which topped estimates for the fourth quarter. Banks are just raking in profits thanks to consumers who see nothing wrong with borrowing on credit cards with interest rates as high as 24-30% in some instances. The average credit card user is paying through the nose, around 20.15% according to the latest data from bankrate.

So, at 8:30 am ET, did the BLS throw a fly into the ointment?

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - DECEMBER 2024

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 2.6 percent in December, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The gasoline index increased 4.4 percent over the month. The index for food also increased in December, rising 0.3 percent as both the index for food at home and the index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent each.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in December, after increasing 0.3 percent in each of the previous 4 months. Indexes that increased in December include shelter, airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care. The indexes for personal care, communication, and alcoholic beverages were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.

The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending December, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending November. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending December. The food index increased 2.5 percent over the last year.

Nope. Futures shot straight up, because, even though inflation is still very much untamed, the monthly figure of +0.4% was spot on Wall Street's expected number even though it was the highest monthly figure since March. Never mind that the year-over-year number of 2.9% was the highest since July.

Right after the release, Dow futures ballooned to +640, NASDAQ was giddy, up 390, and S&P futures were up 92 points, all heading higher, defying all logic. Bankers are getting fat and people are going into debt buying food. Rate cuts? Who needs them?

Gold even got a boost, up over $2,700, though that's surely going to be short-lived. WTI crude shot up to $77.16 a four-month high. Thanks, Joe, Kamala, and all you lefty lovers of wind, solar, subsidies, electric cars, alien probes.

Well, at least booze is cheaper.

Ironically, President Joe Biden will deliver a farewell speech from the Oval Office tonight that's expected to focus on key achievements of his administration. Unmentioned will be the 4-8 million illegals that crossed into the U.S. 2021-2024, the highest inflation rate in more than 50 years, millions of $$$$ sent to Ukraine in a winless war, or the promotion of drag queen story hour, LGBTQ++ immorality, high crime rates, FEMA failures, devastating fires in Los Angeles, or record homelessness.

It's all good. We got DEI!

At the Close, Tuesday, January 14, 2025:
Dow: 42,518.28, +221.16 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: 19,044.39, -43.71 (-0.23%)
S&P 500: 5,842.91, +6.69 (+0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 19,176.65, +129.33 (+0.68%)

Bloomberg Advances Fake News Syndicate (FNS), Futures, Euro Stocks Rally; PPI Still Hot at +0.2 in December, +3.3% Y-O-Y

The fake news roll-out on a near-daily basis is becoming almost comical. It is rather disturbing, however. Last week it was CNN and the Washington Post issuing reportus bogusimus, aka, fake news. This morning, it's Bloomberg's turn.

Stocks bounce and dollar slips after tariff report

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index snapped a two-day losing streak to rise 0.5%, as Bloomberg News quoted people familiar with the matter as saying graduated tariff hikes of about 2% to 5% a month are under discussion, rather than aggressive one-time increases.

"Bloomberg News quoted people familiar with the matter..." says it all.

The story goes on without any "quote" other than a few from Shaniel Ramjee, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management.

Wikipedia says, "Pictet Asset Management manages assets for institutional investors and investment funds, including large pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and financial institutions. It also manages assets for individual investors through an extensive range of mandates, products, and services."

Well, OK. Quote some flunky in Geneva, Switzerland or Genoa, Italy, who cannot be held accountable for anything. That's SOP for FNS (Fake News Syndicate).

Does Michael Bloomberg hate Donald J. Trump?

Opinions vary, but it's a safe bet that the vainglorious Bloomberg surely isn't thrilled that the Donald is about to become president of the United States for a second time. The two have a history. After all, Trump built or expanded much of his real estate empire in New York City while Bloomberg was mayor. Additionally, Bloomberg launched a brief, failed bid for president in 2020.

A couple of tweets from the campaign trail suggest the two don't like each other very much.

Trump called Bloomberg a loser.

Bloomberg responds that people call Trump a "carnival barking clown" behind his back.

That's just the tip of the iceberg. A search for "Trump Bloomberg feud" or similar reveals a deep animosity.

European stocks and U.S. equity futures jumped upon release of the story. SSDD.

Stocks got pounded pretty hard again on Monday, but the chart pattern was changed. Instead of starting out the session high and proceeding lower (sure as shootin' bear market stuff), stocks started lower and then proceeded to drift higher throughout the day.

That's fine, and maybe there was some actual dip-buying out there, but the problem is that new, lower intraday lows were established on the S&P (5,781.10) and NASDAQ (18,859.79). Coincidentally, both indices bottomed out exactly at 10:30 am ET and made double bottoms right at noon.

With Tuesday's opening bell approaching, the ever-reliable BLS released December PPI at 8:30 am ET:

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.4 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 3.3 percent in 2024 after moving up 1.1 percent in 2023.

On the surface, that doesn't sound good, particularly when drilling down to find that the December rise can be traced to a 0.6 percent advance in the index for final demand goods, which had been quiet in recent months.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services (Super Core) rose 3.3 percent in 2024 after advancing 2.7 percent in 2023.

Somehow, Wall Street interpreted the numbers as positive, most likely because they were below heightened expectations (+0.4% on monthly and 3.5% year-over-year). Futures flew higher in knee-jerk fashion after falling close to unchanged earlier. Apparently, the Bloomberg fake news article didn't have much effect, though, amid rumors that PPI and CPI had been leaked, there might have been some necessity in boosting futures in the wee hours of the U.S. morning if only to avoid a sharp decline when PPI was made public.

Tin foil hats firmly attached, Tuesday morning futures appear to be a case of classic misdirection. Looks like the markets are going to revert back to the chart pattern of recent vintage: up at the open, down by the close.

At the Close, Monday, January 13, 2025:
Dow: 42,297.12, +358.67 (+0.86%)
NASDAQ: 19,088.10, -73.53 (-0.38%)
S&P 500: 5,836.22, +9.18 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 19,047.33, +84.32 (+0.44%)