WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Wrecked in Friday Bloodbath; Gold, Silver Each Up More than 10% Already in 2025; End of the Fed Coming Soon

Commentary will be limited in this week's WRAP as conditions are changing by the day.

Just for openers, WTI crude oil feel for a fifth straight week. Gold finished higher an eighth straight week. Stocks got a serious reality check on Friday, leaving the three major indices - Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 - clinging to gains of one to two percent. If it wasn't for a severe downdraft the final four trading sessions of 2024 (December 26, 27, 30, 31), all but the Dow would be down for the year. As it is, they’re each well off recent highs.

Stocks

Friday was a train wreck, sending all the indices into the red for the week. Charts are eerily reminiscent of either 2020 or 2022. With Friday's report of a new deadly virus discovered in China, some are betting on 2020, though for the intellectual class of covid/shutdowns/vaccine-deniers, the message delivered after the close of European markets Friday by the dubious Daily Mail, citing the Wuhan Institute of Virology as its source, amounts to nothing more than EU-inspired fake news, promulgated in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to impose peace upon Ukraine, thus flushing the EU's plan to permanently enslave their populations down a proverbial toilet.

NASDAQ's 438-point drop wasn't even as deep as the January 27 613-point wreck, so, nothing new here, just another in a series of dumps, which have been frequent since (ah-ha!) Trump's election. There's probably more pain to come. The recent patterns suggest distribution (pump-and-dump). Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $334 billion in cash, and that's after the firm paid $27 billion in taxes. Democrats may lament billionaires, but Berkshire is certainly paying its "fair share."

Things are getting hairy and scary. The U.S. is attacking drug cartels in Mexico, Musk continues to slash and burn via DOGE, Pope Francis is in critical condition, Trump fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force General Charles Q. Brown Jr. (ha, take that, Charlie Brown), Kash Patel was confirmed as Director of the FBI on Friday, and there's a critical election in Germany TODAY.

Upcoming full year and fourth quarter earnings reports:

Monday: (before open): Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Owens Corning (OC), Domino's Pizza (DPZ); (after close) Cliffs (CLF), Chegg (CHGG), hims | hers (HIMS)

Tuesday: (before open) Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Home Depot (HD), Krispy Kreme (DNUT); (after close) Instacart (CART), Workday (WDAY), Intuit (INTU), First Solar (FSLR), AMC Entertainment (AMC)

Wednesday: (before open) Advance Auto Parts (AAP), AB InBev (BUD), Stellantis (STLA), NRG (NRG), Lowe's (LOW); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), SalesForce (CRM), Kratos (KTOS)

Thursday: (before open) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Gray Communications (GTN), TB Bank (TD), Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD); (after close) Bloom Energy (BE), Dell (DELL), SoundHound (SOUN)

Friday: (before open) Frontline PLC (FRO), Butterfly (BFLY), 1st Dibs (DIBS), Fubo TV (FUBO).

The second estimate for fourth quarter GDP is released Thursday, along with durable goods data for January. Both reports should bear weight on markets.

The coming week's data will close out with the PCE Price Index for January - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday before the opening bell. This is a readout that is losing its significance as the Fed's influence on markets in general is being sent to back-burners.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21
01/24/2025	4.45	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67

For whatever reason, the Fed added a 6-week bill to the treasury stack. It is not included here this week, but will appear at some point going forward. There's likely to be some volatility to the new issue, so it will deserve some attention, though not much.

Steady as she goes on spreads, with 2s-10s slightly elevated by two basis points to +23. Full Spectrum returned +31 at week's end.

The Fed is becoming increasingly irrelevant. With any luck, they'll still be in business by this time next year, though its extended future is very much in doubt. Having robbed Americans blind via inflation for the past 112 years, the people have had enough of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking, amounting to nothing better than counterfeiting. Americans are unlikely to get their money back, but at least they'll be rid of what "Old Hickory" Andrew Jackson called "a den of vipers" when he abolished the Second Bank of the United States. History can't repeat soon enough.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, and finally, 70.25 at the New York close this Friday. Five consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative nine percent should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump has finally begun to fall, at $3.13 (down two cents) a gallon Sunday morning, reflecting the lag time between crude prices and gas prices. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling for the next four to six weeks, longer if oil prices continue to slide, which they should.

California remains top of the heap, up only two cents from last week, at $4.80.

Pennsylvania was fell two cents, at $3.35, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second, stable at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.07) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were pretty much unchanged. Maryland dropped down to $3.03. New Jersey is back to an even $3.00.

Even Illinois was down a couple of cents, to $3.23. Ohio ($2.89) and Indiana ($2.92) were down the most in the Midwest.

Mississippi ($2.63) fell two cents, holding at the lowest in the country, just slightly better than Louisiana ($2.65) this week. Texas was next at $2.70. Oklahoma was actually higher, checking in a $2.72. Tennessee ($2.71) fell six cents. Alabama ($2.75), Kentucky ($2.76), Arkansas ($2.77) and South Carolina ($2.78) are next. Kansas and Missouri are both at $2.82, followed by Missouri ($2.85), all lower. Georgia dropped two cents ($2.98). Florida continues to fluctuate, up seven cents this week to $3.08.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in five more states than last week. At least 26 U.S. states have prices under $3.00.

The West continues to suffer the highest prices in the country. Arizona ($3.41) was off just a penny. Oregon showed another penny increase, at $3.74, while Nevada dropped one cent, to $3.82. Washington was up to $4.13, joining California in the tiny club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.02) was stable, and Idaho ($3.18) fell by two cents.

Bitcoin

This week: $95,900.56
Last week: $97,022.45
2 weeks ago: $96,477.31
6 months ago: $63,975.61
One year ago: $51,728.53
Five years ago: $8,531.39

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Hodlers are becoming impatient, former "diamond hands" turning to granite, eventually to sand as they see profits slip through their fingers. The price rise from $50,000, $60,000 to above $100,000 took place in September, October, and November of last year and has stalled out, with the all-time high now a look back to December 17 ($106.490.10).

There's growing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration over moving bitcoin and crypto in general to a higher plain amid speculation that the President was pandering for votes in his pro-crypto messaging during the election cycle. Otherwise, with gold and silver soaring this year (after soaring last year), people may be awakening to the idea that bitcoin and crypto isn't "digital gold" but really all a fantasy, i.e., fool's gold.

Rational people who largely agree that bitcoin is nothing more than vaporware and a slush fund for criminals and Wall Street firms like BlackRock (same thing) have watched the fluctuations in price and sentiment and are seeing chart patterns eerily similar to those in 2021, which plateaued at higher levels before falling sharply, decimating both price and sentiment.

In the end, crypto speculators will get what's coming to them in a cascade of rapid declines, just like previous iterations.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.84; last week: 88.63

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60

Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83

Gold continues to shine, the price continuing to make new highs week after week. Silver made nominal gains over the course of the week, once again smacked down on Friday after reaching a high for the week of $33.77 Thursday. On the COMEX, Gold has finished every Friday this year (eight straight) higher than the previous one.

Year-to-date, precious metals are outpacing stocks by a wide margin. Silver is ahead by 14.02%, gold up 11.83%. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up 2.24%, the Dow, 2.08%, NASDAQ, 1.10%. Call it the "Trump Effect" or whatever, but Trump's promise of a "Golden Age" for America has been nothing but good for PMs.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.76	49.99	40.67	39.64
1 oz silver bar:	38.00	53.66	42.54	41.30
1 oz gold coin:	2,993.76	3,200.00	3,111.38	3,122.42
1 oz gold bar:	3,052.60	3,107.64	3,077.11	3,074.48

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was higher for a second straight week, at $41.04, a gain of 64 cents from the February 16 price of $40.40 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Despite what most people in the Eastern half of the U.S. are thinking after another bout with severe cold and prime winter conditions, good times are ahead. Spring is officially less than four weeks away. Baseball’s Spring Training is already well underway in Florida and Arizona. MLB's regular season Opening Day is March 27.

At the Close, Friday, February 21, 2025:
Dow: 43,428.02, -748.63 (-1.69%)
NASDAQ: 19,524.01, -438.36 (-2.20%)
S&P 500: 6,013.13, -104.39 (-1.71%)
NYSE Composite: 19,881.54, -268.31 (-1.33%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1118.06 (-2.51%)
NASDAQ: -502.76 (-2.51%)
S&P 500: -101.50 (1.66%)
NYSE Composite: -248.95 (-1.24%)
Dow Transports: -572.17 (-3.45%)

How Many IRS Employees Are Necessary?; Stocks Look to Avoid Losing Week; DoJ Probe of United Health (UNH) Sends Dow Futures Tumbling

Is it really necessary to have 100,000 people employed at the IRS to collect taxes and process returns from American citizens and corporations?

The answer probably depends on who's being asked. Bean-counters at the tax collection agency would probably argue that they're understaffed. President Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE team think otherwise.

As many as 6,000 probationary employees (those with less than 2 years at their current position) are reportedly being axed this week, a reduction in headcount of 7.5% just as tax filing season gets into full swing.

Deeper cuts are planned for May, after the bulk of filings have been processed. It's probably a safe bet to believe there will be delays and confusion surrounding this year's tax returns. The IRS is notoriously slow, burdened by ancient, legacy computer programs written in COBOL, a language hatched in 1959. Coders with COBOL understanding have become increasingly rare, exacerbating IRS issues processing returns.

The agency has been undergoing "modernization" of its systems since 2019, a six-year plan that should be completed this year, but, like previous IRS promises to upgrade, it's probably been a huge waste of time, effort, and money.

With better systems using modern technology, coupled with a simplified tax code (yes, we're dreaming), headcount could probably be reduced to something in the range of 30-40,000 employees, a reduction of 60-70%, which would save something like $6-7 billion a year, or $60-70 billion over ten years.

Trump has mentioned more than a few times his desire to eliminate the most-hated agency in the federal government, and it appears he's proceeding along that path. According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutwick, Trump's goal is to replace the income tax with tariffs. Apparently, editors at The New Republic are opposed to freeing Americans from tax slavery. A number of experts believe the federal income tax to be illegal, and the Supreme Court, back in 1892 agreed in a 5-4 ruling.

There is no specific statute that requires Americans to pay income tax and some people believe the 16th amendment, which authorized the income tax and the Federal Reserve System, was never actually ratified.

There are plenty of people who would love to see the IRS defanged and possibly eliminated. Replacement options mentioned include a flat tax, national sales tax, or taxing only businesses and corporations in addition to tariffs.

Using the tried and true 80/20 formula (20% of employees do 80% of the work), there's a solid probability of the IRS being severely downsized over the next few years, if not sooner.

Stocks took a turn south on Thursday, setting up for a big options expiation day Friday. Walmart was the main catalyst for the downturn, the company offering fairly dour guidance.

Block, parent of Square, reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue well below estimates. Square stock plunged more than 8% Friday in the pre-market.

Rivian was down more than five percent pre-market after the company beat expectations but offered a so-so outlook late Thursday.

Booking (BKNG) rallied nearly 4% in early morning action. MercadoLibre (MELI) is soaring nearly 12%, the company reporting strong earnings and revenue in the fourth quarter.

Dow futures took a huge leg downward as Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH) plunged more than 12% after a reported Department of Justice probe on Medicare billing was reported.

A half hour until the open, Dow futures are down more than 250 points. NASDAQ futures are up 80, while S&P futures are flat-lining.

Bitcoin continues its flirtation with $100,000, a level it has not exceeded since February 4. Being Friday, gold and silver are lower, as expected. For whatever reason, PM riggers always seem to want to send prices down at the end of every week, setting up casual buying opportunities over the weekend for stackers. Well, OK.

WTI crude oil is down early Friday, but seeks its first week to the upside in the past five. It needs to close above $71.06, currently, the price is $72.08.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow is down 359 points on the week, the NASDAQ is down 64, S&P up 3 points.

At the Close, Thursday, February 20, 2025:
Dow: 44,176.65, -450.94 (-1.01%)
NASDAQ: 19,962.36, -93.89 (-0.47%)
S&P 500: 6,117.52, -26.63 (-0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 20,149.85, -78.36 (-0.39%)

Stocks Hitting Resistance at All-Time Highs; Walmart Issues dull Guidance; FOMC Minutes Show Fed Holding on Rates

Compared to recent days, Wednesday was a little on the dull side. Elon Musk and DOGE didn't fire whole departments, President Trump didn't end any wars, and the stock market relied upon minutes from the January FOMC meeting for investment decisions.

Federal Reserve officials discussed the effects of potential changes in trade from proposed Trump tariffs and weighed the administration's efforts to slow illegal immigration and deport potentially millions of working age adults on the economy. They also reportedly discussed the inherent difficulty in discerning whether changes would be persistent or temporary regarding inflation, employment, and the general economy, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28-29 meeting showed.

Essentially, the FOMC members couldn't make heads or tails of Trump or his directives other than to guess about their effectiveness, so they took a wait and see approach, deciding to keep the federal funds rate at current levels, indicating a preference for holding off on rate cuts in the near term.

From the minutes, Wall Street's coven of watchful witches bubbled up a brew that was somehow positive, sending stocks from their doldrums to another gloriously positive finish and a record close on the S&P 500. The main beneficiary was, as usual, NASDAQ, which ended positive for the fifth straight session. The S&P has closed higher eight of the past 11 sessions. Only the NYSE Composite remained lower for the day.

After the close Wednesday, a few more earnings reports trickled in, notable Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), which posted solid Q4 and full year 2024 figures. for the quarter, revenue: came in at a record $921 million against analyst expectations for $913.2 million and adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) was $1.04 versus estimates of $0.91. While the restaurant chain's quarter was solid, shares are down between one and two percent in pre-market trading, likely on a pure valuation play. The stock just hit its highest level since June, 2021, even though its dividend yield is nearly two percent and p/e ratio not excessive, in the high teens.

Also reporting after the Wednesday close was Carvana (CVNA). Even though the company beat estimates top and bottom line, the stock is being slaughtered pre-open, down seven percent. Shares recently reached their highest level in three years, but the company's margins are so tight, valuation appears to be the main issue.

On revenues of $3.55 billion for the quarter ended December 2024 the company earned $369 million, or 56 cents per share.

Reporting Thursday morning, Wayfair (W) showed a quarterly loss of $128 million or $1.02 per share on revenue of $3.1 billion, which was just slightly higher than year-ago revenue. Apparently, that's good enough, as shares are flying eight percent higher pre-market.

The kicker was Walmart (WMT), the nation's largest retailer. The company reported another solid quarter, beating estimates, but their guidance was dour, sending shares sharply lower prior to the open. Walmart is trending down six to eight percent a half hour before the bell.

Weekly jobless claims continued to trend near multi-decade lows. 219,000 initial claims were filed in the most recent week. Paradoxically, continuing claims were near 2.0 million, close to four-year highs.

With the open dead ahead, stock futures are slumping. Dow: -155; NASDAQ: -55; S&P: -18.

Gold hit a high of $2,972 earlier in the morning, but has come down off that number. Silver is trending around $33.50. WTI crude got a boost on Wednesday and that trend continues into Thursday, with a barrel going for around $72.50.

The market is teetering close to all-time highs. The Shiller PE ratio hit 38.75 as of Wednesday's close, surpassing the post=pandemic high in October, 2021 (38.58).

At the Close, Wednesday, February 19, 2025:
Dow: 44,627.59, +71.25 (+0.16%)
NASDAQ: 20,056.2, +14.99 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 6,144.15, +14.57 (+0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 20,228.20, -12.19 (-0.06%)

The United States Is a Big Slush Fund; Treasury Missing $4.7 Trillion; Did Goldfinger Steal All of Fort Knox's Gold?

The world has been turned upside down. Just a month since Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States, he's unleashed Elon Musk and his troops at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) upon various agencies and departments of the federal government, uncovering massive levels of fraud, waste, abuse, and corruption.

Democrats - and quite a few Republicans - in congress are in a panic, not because Trump and Musk have unearthed incredible amounts of money missing, wasted, spent, or plundered, but because they fear further unraveling of their hidden truths. Just who was taking bribes, hush money, kickbacks. It's no wonder the Senate pushed the confirmation of Kash Patel as Director of the FBI back a week. Certain lawmakers likely need more time to shred documents, wipe computer hard drives, close bank accounts before the investigations begin.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is content to carry on as though everything is normal, when the condition is actually closer to one of extreme FUBAR. Tuesday's close was yet another example of the devious nature exhibited in lower Manhattan. All of the major indices were in the red just 11 minutes before the final bell. Miraculously, as has been standard practice for months, even years, all of the exchanges turned green at the close.

Wall Street insiders depend on casual investors to only see the closing prices, not peer at daily charts. Those who did saw the Dow down by more than 220 points earlier in the session. "Painting the tape" as it were, has become such a common event that it's expected, and without explanation. Stocks go up. Everybody knows that.

In the travails of the DOGE team over the weekend and into Tuesday, it was discovered that there were thousands of individual social security numbers in age groups from 100 to as high as 300 years with the Death field entered a "false", meaning, according to the SSA's database, these people were still alive, and, ostensibly, entitled to receive benefits. Were they? And since thousands of people don't live to be 100, 120, 140 or more, who actually received the payments? That is going to require more forensic investigation.

Beyond that, Musk tweeted that $4.7 trillion of Treasury payments had no TAS code, and would be "untraceable." That raised a few eyebrows.

If $4.7 trillion was missing or lost or otherwise unaccounted for, divided equally, how much would that be per U.S. citizen?

As of February 1, 2025, the estimated population of the U.S. is 341,271,663. Dividing the total amount of money ($4.7 Trillion) unaccounted for at the U.S. Treasury by the U.S. population produces the following calculation:

$4,700,000,000,000 divided by 341,271,663 U.S. citizens = $13,769.75 (approximately).

Therefore, each U.S. citizen is on the hook for approximately $13,769.75. Surely, some people could use that extra cash.

The responsible party is the Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, the highest-ranking career official in the United States Department of the Treasury. David Lebryk served as Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury between 2014 and 2025. Of course, he served under Janet Yellen, a former Chair of the Federal Reserve. MoneyDaily pointed out that she should never have confirmed, given her ties to the Fed, a foreign, private bank.

Further down the rabbit hole, the requirement for using TAS for every disbursement is not found in a single, standalone statute. Instead, it's a fundamental requirement woven into the fabric of federal financial management through a combination of:

Statutory authority (31 U.S.C. §§ 3512, 3513) establishing the need for robust accounting systems and giving the Treasury the authority to set the rules.

Treasury regulations and guidance (TFM, FAST Book) providing the specific instructions and procedures for using TAS.

OMB guidance (Circulars A-123, A-136) reinforcing the importance of internal controls and accurate financial reporting.

GAO guidance (Title 7) providing further clarification on fiscal procedures.

The system is designed to ensure that every dollar spent by the federal government can be tracked back to its source appropriation, promoting transparency and accountability. The use of TAS is not optional; it's a mandatory part of federal financial management.

Well, somebody needs to do some 'splainin'.

Then there's the not-so-insignificant issue of the gold in Fort Knox. Elon Musk, with the backing of Senator Ron Paul, intends to inspect the vaults, the same ones Auric Goldfinger (Gerd Forbe) planned to abscond with in the 1964 classic OO7 film, "Goldfinger". Who knows, maybe James Bond really didn't catch the villain, Goldfinger's operation "Grand Slam" was a success, and the gold is gone.

Earnings from various companies were reported Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday prior to the bell.

Auction and retail platform Etsy reported before the open Wednesday. Spending on the platform was down 6.8% overall and the number of active buyers fell 2.6%. Though the company managed to beat earnings expectations, the miss on the revenue side has investors fleeing for the exits. Shares of ETSY are down more than five percent in pre-market trading.

Gold ripped higher on Tuesday after being slammed Friday. It's currently trending around $2,955. Silver is bouncing around the mid-$33s. Crude oil has caught a bid, stock futures are lower.

Sooner or later, there's going to be a reckoning, and, judging by the speed at which Trump is proceeding, it looks like sooner. Oh, and U.S. and Russian negotiators pretty much shut down project Ukraine, despite protestations from war-mongers in Europe and the little dictator, Zelensky.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 18, 2025:
Dow: 44,556.34, +10.26 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 20,041.26, +14.49 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 6,129.58, +14.95 (+0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 20,240.39, +109.91 (+0.55%)

Editor's Note: X has temporarily suspended this account from posting for one week. Sorry.

WEEKEND WRAP: DC Panic; Wall Street Apathy; Gold-Backed Currencies Within 1-3 Years; Slowing Ecnomy; Higher Unemployment

Panic is trending in Washington D.C.

Anybody tired of #WINNING yet?

There are unconfirmed rumors of a massive spike in the number of houses up fr sale in and around the Washington D.C. metro area.

Checking with Zillow in a broad search of the area (Beltway and slightly beyond), there were:

• 6700 homes listed for 6 months
• 5753 homes listed for 90 days
• 2922 homes listed for 30 days
• 1709 homes listed for 14 days
• 932 homes listed for 7 days

Doesn't seem to exactly point to an exodus. It will probably be insightful to watch rents and home sale prices over the next six months, however, as Trump and Musk take an axe to the federal workforce. With all the layoffs, firings, and upcoming prosecutions, it's a good bet that there's going to be more than enough housing for the few that remain. Prices should absolutely crumble unless BlackRock goes in and buys them all (which is a possibility).

After four weeks of the Trump presidency, politicians are scrambling to delete incriminating evidence from hard drives, cell phones, bank records, you name it. An estimate of how many of the current 535 members of congress (100 senators, 435 members of the House) have taken bribes, kickbacks, or dirty money of some kind would have to be in the 90 percentile range. Estimating how many will resign and/or be caught, be tried, be convicted is probably in the high teens to low 20s. It's fairly obvious U.S. elected officials and higher-ups in government employ have been fleecing the taxpayers for years, even decades. Finally, there may be some exposure to just how deep the corruption has dug into the roots of politics in D.C.

It's pretty deep and Americans want the crooks exposed. More to come, as they say.

Meanwhile, Wall Street, responsible for at least some of the corruption via insider tips, favors, and probably payments to politicians, continues to stroll along as if nothing has changed. That's despite the revelations last week that inflation was not under control with the CPI and PPI both at higher levels than previous months and retail sales in January crashing (-0.9%).

Stocks

Stocks had a good week, with all the major indices posting gains, led by the NASDAQ (+2.58%), which, along with the S&P, ended a two-week-long slide. The Dow Jones Transportation Average was the best of the bunch with a gain of 2.84% for the week.

The week past saw mixed results from companies reporting, but most were boosted higher despite results that were largely reflective of a slowing economy.

The coming week will be shortened, with markets shuttered Monday (Presidents' Day). The earnings calendar gets a little lighter.

Monday: (markets closed) Transocean (RIG), Huntsman (HUN)

Tuesday: (before open) Baidu (BIDU), Medtronic (MDT), Entergy (ETR); (after close) Celanese (CE), Devon Energy (DVN), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday: (before open) Wix (WIX), Fiverr (FVRR), Analog Devices (ADI), Etsy (ETSY), Garmin (GRMN); (after close) Bausch Health (BHC), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Equinox Gold (EQX), Carvana (CVNA)

Thursday: (before open) Walmart (WMT), Wayfair (W), Birkenstock (BIRK), Shake Shack (SHAK); (after close) Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Newmont Mining (NEM), Mercado Libre (MELI), Rivian (RIVN)

Friday: (before open) US Cellular (USM), Atmus (ATMU), Uniti (UNIT).

Data drops are slim, the most important - and becoming less so every day - will be the Fed minutes from the January FOMC meeting. Nothing spectacular or market moving in that Wednesday afternoon (usually 2:00 pm ET) release.


Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/10/2025	4.42	4.35	4.36	4.33	4.27	4.25
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21
01/24/2025	4.45	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/10/2025	4.40	4.46	4.59	4.70	4.77	5.04	4.96
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69

Nothing says flat like the difference between the lowest rate (4.23%, 1-year note) and the highest (4.69%, 30-year bond) of 0.46%. The 20-year (4.75%) is an anomaly and left aside of calculations.

The Federal Reserve is being defanged by the Trump administration, gradually, but the effort will pick up momentum as soon as other issues are deemed under control. Those others include downsizing the government, a huge lift in foreign affairs (Middle East, Ukraine chief among them), and the domestic economy. Taking a wrecking ball to the Federal Reserve is the best part of the journey and purposely reserved for the end.

While the Fed will attempt to assert its authority from time to time via sporadic speeches and the usual rhetoric from their 10 annual FOMC soirees, it was clear from the last FOMC meeting at the end of January that conditions have changed. The Fed stood down, keeping the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% and Chairman Powell was as mealy-mouthed and non-committal as he could be, barring an outright gag order, at his press conference.

Monetary policy is being taken out of the Fed's hands and will ultimately become a function of the Treasury. Currently, the treasury, secondary bond markets, and forex are providing all the monetary indicators needed without input from the Federal Reserve. The people doing their diligence at the Mariner Eccles building might as well start clearing their desks, packing their bags and sharpening up their resumes. Their days are numbered.

The American people clearly demand an honest government and Trump is delivering on that promise. They will ultimately demand honest money, but that is an issue for another day, though, considering the speed at which Trump is operating, that day could come sooner than many wish to consider. The U.S. dollar, along with Russia's rouble, China's yuan, and India's rupee will have gold backing, either in full or in fraction, either for international trade or domestic transactions, at some time within the next one to three years. It only makes sense to have honest money the global standard and the countries with the largest gold holdings will dominate how currencies adjust to the emerging new standards.

Central banks, being private, will protest vigorously, but their lamentations will fall on deaf ears. The global community has had its fill of the World Bank, IMF, and fiat currencies backed by nothing but faith in central banks, not governments. Once governments begin to wrest control of their currencies back from the debt pushers, there will be no stopping their momentum. The process has begun and the leaders of the "Big Four" will coordinate their agendas.

Central banks will become irrelevant and soon dissolve. Government treasuries issuing the currency of their respective nations will become the norm. This is the biggest story of the century, unfolding before our very eyes though most people are blind to it.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32


Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, and finally to $70.56 at the New York close this Friday. Four consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative 8.80% should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon, regardless of cold winter heating days or summer driving season.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up another four cents from last week, at $3.15 a gallon Sunday morning.

California remains top of the heap, up sharply from last week, at $4.78, from $4.56 last week and $4.43 a gallon two weeks ago.

Pennsylvania was up marginally at $3.37, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second or third, at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.07) was sstable along with Massachusetts ($3.00). Maryland dropped back to third in the Northeast ($3.10).

Illinois was up three cents, to $3.25. Ohio ($3.02) and Indiana ($2.99) were static.

Mississippi ($2.65) held at the lowest, just slightly better than Oklahoma ($2.66) this week. Following are Texas ($2.68) and Louisiana ($2.68). Tennessee ($2.77), Alabama ($2.78), and South Carolina ($2.79) are next, followed by Kentucky ($2.82), Kansas and Arkansas (both, $2.83), and Missouri ($2.87). Georgia bounced higher, ($3.00). Florida fell 14 cents, to $3.01.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in fewer states than in prior weeks. At least 21 U.S. states have prices under $3.00, down from more than 24 last week and 28 a few weeks ago.

Arizona ($3.42) is up another 16 cents from last week. Oregon showed prices higher by a dime, at $3.73. Nevada was up 14 cents, at $3.83. Washington was up 12 cents to $4.12, joining California in the small club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.03) was stable, but Idaho ($3.20) was higher by three cents.


Bitcoin

This week: $97,022.45
Last week: $96,477.31
2 weeks ago: $98,218.74
6 months ago: $59,131.83
One year ago: $51,685.54
Five years ago: $9,667.06

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Hodlers are becoming impatient, former "diamond hands" turning to granite, eventually to sand as they see profits slip through their fingers. The price rise from $50,000 $60,000 to above $100,000 took place in September, October, and November of last year and has stalled out, with the all-time high now a look back to December 17.

There exists a growing degree of dissatisfaction with the Trump administration in moving bitcoin and crypto in general to a higher plain and some speculation that the President was pandering for votes in his pro-crypto messaging during the election cycle.

Rational people who largely agree that bitcoin is nothing more than vaporware and a slush fund for criminals and Wall Street firms like BlackRock (same thing) have watched the fluctuations in price and sentiment and are seeing chart patterns eerily similar to those in 2021, which plateaued at higher levels before falling sharply, decimating both price and sentiment.

In the end, crypto speculators will get what's coming to them in a cascade of rapid declines, just like previous iterations.


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.63; last week: 89.66

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00
Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70

Silver price 1/19: $31.05
Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65

Gold peaked somewhere around $2,966 on the COMEX late Monday, was ripped lower, bounced back Thursday into Friday, then was mercilessly punched down all day Friday into the weekend. Silver took a similar roundtrip, though the high was on Friday, the price of $34.23 the best since late October.

It's the same tired story. Every time PMs apear ready to break out - and this is especially true for silver - the COMEX wheel grinds it down to more pedestrian levels. Sooner or later this price manipulation that has become so tortured and obvious will end. Until that time, there's little to do other than wait or buy more.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	38.49	44.95	39.96	39.00
1 oz silver bar:	35.22	46.22	41.14	41.48
1 oz gold coin:	2,930.59	3,071.97	3,019.45	3,024.07
1 oz gold bar: 2,996.31	3,050.50	3,020.39	3,019.36

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) ended three weeks of declines with a rise to $40.40, a gain of 97 cents from the February 9 price of $39.43 per troy ounce.


WEEKEND WRAP

Things in Washington D.C. and across America are just beginning to get interesting. It's going to take a while for Wall Street to begin reflecting the rapid-fire changes to the economic landscape. Judging by the most important metrics, stocks should be nearing a top, and with earnings season for the first quarter winding down, more focus will be on events in D.C. that are reshaping the government.

The massive movement of employees off the federal workforce roles will result in an unemployment spike. There's little doubt about that, but unemployment is always a lagging indicator. Impact to the nation's "wealth effect" will take considerably longer to materialize and it's possible that Trump's policies of mass firings, resignations, and furloughs, combined with potentially millions of deportations, and threats of tariffs rather than real ones, will likely stave off further inflationary tendencies.

Companies may not experience much pricing power with consumers and credit stretched to extremes. An end to "Project Ukraine" and peace with Russia may be emboldened by lifting of sanctions, especially with regard to energy. With oil prices are already under pressure, removal of sanctions on Russian oil could produce a significant glut worldwide, and, set against an environment of slack to declining demand, is outright dis-inflationary, possibly deflationary.

It's difficult to believe stocks can continue to rise in such an environment. Once housing prices begin to readjust back toward mean pricing, stocks and other financial assets should follow.

For now, it's a guessing game.

Happy Presidents' Day.

At the Close, Friday, February 14, 2025:
Dow: 44,546.08, -165.35 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 20,026.77, +81.13 (+0.41%)
S&P 500: 6,114.63, -0.44 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 20,130.48, -50.81 (-0.25%)

For the Week:
Dow: +242.68 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: +503.37 (+2.58%)
S&P 500: +88.64 (+1.47%)
NYSE Composite: +91.00 (+0.45%)
Dow Transports: +459.34 (+2.84%)

Editor's Note: X has temporarily suspended this account from posting for one week. Sorry.