February Non-farm Payrolls Add 151,000; Stocks Aiming for Worst Week of Year Amidst Trump Tariff Trauma

Thursday was another rough day for equity investors, the third of four this week, leaving the major averages looking at the worst weekly loss of the year.

Through Thursday's close, the Dow was down 1,261 points, or 2.88%. The NASDAQ ended Thursday with a week-to-date loss of 778 points (4.13%), yesterday edging into correction territory, down 10.43% from its all-time closing high of 20,173.89 on December 16. On the week, the S&P is lower by 216 points (3.63%).

Anxiety over a slew of issues including downsizing government, Ukraine, the Middle East, unemployment, the future of AI, tariffs, and the general economy have caused investors to seek safety in fixed income or stocks that are less exposed to shocks like utilities and some of the less-volatile value stocks on the Dow.

When the BLS released February Non-farm Payroll figures an hour before the open on Friday, stock futures had been relatively flat. Upon the announcement of 151,000 jobs added in February and the unemployment rate stable at 4.1%, futures bounced higher in kneejerk fashion, as they normally would, though the blip to the upside was very short-lived and quickly reversed course.

The BLS survey for February has to be taken with an ample dose of skepticism. Showing federal government employment falling by a mere 10,000 over the course of the month fails to take into account the more than 75,000 federal workers who took buyouts and will be paid through September. It also seems to have under-reported the number of layoffs generally in the D.C. metro area as DOGE has furloughed many more than 10,000 employees.

Additionally, the BLS report runs counter to Wednesday's ADP Private Payrolls figure of 77,000 jobs in February, which cited trade and transportation, health care and education, and information showing job losses. The BLS points to health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance as sectors showing job gains. Obviously, both surveys cannot be correct and the BLS has a history of being wrong.

No matter what Wall Street thinks of the jobs data, it appears to have become a back-burner issue for now. The economy, for what it's worth, seems to be limping along just fine through the turmoil of President Trump's fist 50 days in office (Tuesday, March 11), despite the obvious pressure on stocks.

The highly-touted (and severely overrated) BLS monthly jobs data isn't likely to move the needle much this time around. If anything, it appears to show the employment sector in fair shape, despite the obvious fractures in and around the nation's capital.

This jobs number is likely comparable to a McDonald's hamburger: unsatisfying, tasteless, and soon forgotten.

a half hour before the open, WTI crude oil has bounced off lows to just above $67/barrel. Gold and silver are steady, at $2,920 and $32.55, respectively.

At the Close, Thursday, March 6, 2025:
Dow: 42,579.08, -427.51 (-0.99%)
NASDAQ: 18,069.26, -483.48 (-2.61%)
S&P 500: 5,738.52, -104.11 (-1.78%)
NYSE Composite: 19,506.34, -248.23 (-1.26%)