Thursday, March 6, 2025

Stock Futures Pointing Lower After Wednesday Snapback Rally; Oil Continues Slide; Recession Fears Growing.

Stocks staged an impressive rally Wednesday, bouncing back from two straight sessions to the downside to start the week. However, an hour prior to the opening bell Thursday, stock futures are sending ominous signals, with Dow futures down 450 points, NASDAQ futures off 350, and S&P futures off by 75 points.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for February since 2009. The firm, which produces monthly layoff figures every month just prior to the BLS' Non-farm Payroll announcement, saw nearly 62,000 layoffs or firings from government and another 32,000 at retail establishments. DOGE, the federal government's agency headed by Elon Musk tasked with elimination of waste, fraud, and abuse, is credited with the vast majority of the cuts.

Initial claims for unemployment fall in the most recent week, as reported Thursday morning, to 221,000, seasonally adjusted.

Wednesday's snapback rally may have been more of a buy-the-dip moment on what appeared to some to be oversold conditions. The general tone of the market seemed to point in the opposite direction, as stocks have struggled to hold gains since the start of the year, especially after President Trump's inauguration, January 20.

With the February NFP looking more and more like it may come in as a negative number on Friday, investors seem to be scurrying for cover. ADP's 77,000 job gains for the month were for private entities. Friday's NFP will include government layoffs and firings, which could be huge.

As the opening bell approaches, gold and silver have backed down a bit. Gold is trending around $2,910, while silver is holding steady above $32.50. WTI crude oil remains moribund, hitting a low of $65.37 Wednesday before bouncing back somewhat to just above $66/barrel.

Thursday's trade may be as volatile as the first two days of the week. There remains simply too much uncertainty for investors to make bold trades.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 5, 2024:
Dow: 43,006.59, +485.60 (+1.14%)
NASDAQ: 18,552.73, +267.57 (+1.46%)
S&P 500: 5,842.63, +64.48 (+1.12%)
NYSE Composite: 19,754.57, +259.02 (+1.33%)

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