WEEKEND WRAP: Markets Take Bit of a Pause (from selling); Gold:Silver Ratio hits 90; Oil, Gas Prices Rise; Is Wall Street Worthy of Trust?

There are moments in which one has to question whether the entire financial system - particularly the stock market - isn't just one big rigged gentleman's game.

Friday was one of those moments.

Were it not for the market-wide rally off the morning lows, wherein the Dow was down more than 500 points, the NASDAQ was off by 200, and the S&P had slumped 60 points, these weekly results might all have been negatives, at least in the case of the NAZ and S&P, which would have resulted in five straight weekly losses.

Dow: +497.16 (+1.20%)
NASDAQ: +29.96 (+0.17%)
S&P 500: +28.62 (+0.51%)

Being that Friday was a quad-witching day, there were all manner of trades to be made, especially in the realm of options and futures, by which stocks could be guided in any direction, higher, lower, or both ways if need be.

The case can be made that Friday's rally was nothing more than a massive short squeeze. Indeed, all short, day-long rallies of the past few weeks might easily be redefined as short squeezes, the maligned bulls getting a small dose of redemption by taking out the weakest hands, keeping those ravenous bears from further degradation of their precious assets.

There's obviously more in play than the bruised egos of the powerful elite. Pension and retirement funds, IRAs, 401k plans, and the general well-being and "wealth effect" of the global village is tied to U.S. stock markets. When these assets get written down, the losses are felt far afield. It is thus in the best interests of the Wall Street horde and their muppet clients to keep stocks at premium levels, with valuations that are of the sky-high pie-in-the-sky variety, like Nvidia, Amazon, META, and the rest of the tech stocks, or more reasonable dividend-yielding types like some Dow stocks, maybe Boeing, or Walmart, Home Depot, Coca-Cola, IBM, et. al.

Americans are easily amused and just as easily distracted or deceived. They assume Wall Street employs the best and brightest, after the government's intelligence and IRS types, of course. Residing at the top of the heap does not necessarily confer high moral grounding, however, a common misconception amongst the great unwashed.

Americans used to trust its institutions: the government, the media, Wall Street. Now that many lies and deceptions of the past are being exposed, it's not a stretch to assume that trust is long since broken, but the lies and deception continue. Maybe there will be more truths exposed. Maybe not.

But, like the neurotic paranoid attests, "just because you think you're being followed doesn't make it not true."

Wealth effect. That's about as practical (for keeping the herd inside the fences) as trickle-down economics or geo-political domino theory.

Chew on that Americans. Then check and see if your lunch money is all still in your pocket.

Stocks

The major averages finished the week on a slightly positive note. Over the course of the past six weeks, however, stocks are still down significantly. The Dow Transports remain deeply red and the NASDAQ is still in what most people consider "correction territory," down -11.85% from December 16 highs. Though the other indices aren't quite as badly damaged, believing that the worst is over just because this week finished on a high note is delusional.

Markets are quite obviously at the start of a bear market phase. In about a month's time (end April), the initial estimate of first quarter GDP will be released. Odds are that it's either going to be very weak, in the range of 0.5-1.5% growth or outright negative, possibly as negative as -2.6-3.5%. There's plenty of money sloshing around, so liquidity isn't a problem yet, but Americans having been ravaged by inflation the past few years while to government was overspending in order to make the economy appear robust and prosperous, the physics of equal and opposite effects are about to be sprung.

Credit card and auto loan deficiencies are rising. Household income is stagnant at best and the effects of the DOGE cuts and other cost-saving measures have yet to be incorporated into the overall equation. Publicly-traded companies, as much as they are trading at perfection-level valuations, aren't wildly profitable. Some have issued profit and revenue warnings. Others are already suffering, with year-ago measures not up to par. Beyond tech stocks, which have been the hardest hit, financials and consumer discretionary sectors have been degraded.

Restaurant chains are beginning to compete on price as inflation become less of a worry and deflation, the Fed's utmost worry, begins to materialize as spending slows and austerity becomes prudent.

Under current conditions, stocks, in general, are less likely to rise than they are to decline further.

Companies reporting earnings this week:

Monday: (before open) Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD); (after close) Abivax (ABVX), KB Home (KBH), Dragonfly (DFLI)

Tuesday: (before open) McCormick (MKC), Smithfield (SFD), Rumble (RUM), CanadianSolar (CSIQ); (after close) Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS), Paysign (PAYS), Kolibri (KGEI), GameStop (GME)

Wednesday: (before open) Chewy (CHWY), Paychex (PAYX), Cintas (CTAS), Dollar Tree ((DLTR); (after close) Petco (WOOF), Concentrix (CNXC), MicroVision (MVIS)

Thursday: (before open) Bitfarms (BITF), Winnebago (WGO); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Abacus Life (ABL)

Friday: (before open) Katapult (KPLT), Super League (SLE).

For economic indicators, the coming week offers flash PMI readings from S&P, along with the third estimate on U.S. Q4 GDP growth. Core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) for February comes Friday.

The IPO market will be all about cloud computing firm CoreWeave (CRWV), expected to debut on the Nasdaq this week, looking to raise as much as $2.7 billion This IPO, being Nvidia-related, offers an acid test of the suspect AI trade.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
02/14/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	N/A	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15
02/28/2025	4.38	4.37	4.38	4.32	4.32	4.25	4.08
03/07/2025	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.34	4.29	4.29	4.05
03/14/2025	4.37	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.30	4.29	4.09
03/21/2025	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.33	4.29	4.26	4.04

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67
02/28/2025	3.99	3.99	4.03	4.14	4.24	4.55	4.51
03/07/2025	3.99	4.01	4.09	4.21	4.32	4.66	4.62
03/14/2025	4.02	4.00	4.09	4.20	4.31	4.65	4.62
03/21/2025	3.94	3.92	4.00	4.12	4.25	4.60	4.59

The FOMC meeting last Tuesday and Wednesday did little to change expectations, sending yields on long-dated maturities lower. Indicating two 25 basis point cuts still to come this year, the Fed is pushing on a string against fiscal restraint on the government side.

Beyond the Fed becoming less influential than it has been in maybe 25 years, fiscal policy is in the driver's seat. Bond vigilantes will set the tone.

The spread on 2s-10s widened out to +31, a healthy level, but the overall curve is still flat on an historical basis.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil gained for a second straight week, closing at $68.30 Friday, a solid gain from last week's closing price of 67.19. Crude remains under pressure with further downside risk.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up, from $3.04 last Sunday to the current $3.11, which, despite not being a huge bump, is concerning since gas prices haven't actually declined much since January and February. They were actually lower in November and December. The price hike could be the result of summer blends coming online or simply refiners making better profits. The federal government has begun refilling the depleted strategic oil reserve, which also could have contributed to the general increase.

California remains at $4.61, the priciest gas in the country. Oklahoma, at $2.63, and Mississippi ($2.64) are the lowest. outside of Pennsylvania ($3.22), New England and East coast states all range between $2.85 (New Hampshire) and $3.05 (New York).

Every state in the Southeast is under $3.00, including Florida, which comes in at $2.93. The Midwest is elevated while the West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, at $4.07. Oregon is at $3.70, Nevada ($3.68) and Arizona ($3.34) are next.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at least 33 U.S. states this week.

Bitcoin

This week: $85,049.05
Last week: $84,425.85
2 weeks ago: $83,414.10
6 months ago: $63,130.39
One year ago: $67,228.68
Five years ago: $6886.60

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. There's an even chance of it going back to that level as there is falling to around $65,000-$70,000.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 90.96; last week: 87.76

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70
Gold price 3/16: $2,993.60
Gold price 3/23: $3,028.20

Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55
Silver price 3/16: $34.11
Silver price 3/23: $33.29

To the dismay of many stackers, silver backtracked this week just as gold was setting new records. The gold:silver ratio has been out of whack for decades, and one wonders if it will ever be normalized again. Silver, as it is still recognized as a monetary metal, has been suppressed much more virulently than gold, and continues to be.

This weekend's gold:silver ratio of 90.96 screams, "buy silver."

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	34.99	48.00	40.58	39.89
1 oz silver bar:	37.00	44.50	40.61	41.00
1 oz gold coin:	3,053.95	3,378.91	3,229.71	3,247.46
1 oz gold bar:	3,039.00	3,194.24	3,151.65	3,155.35

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was knocked back this week, to $40.52, a decline of $1.74 from the March 16 price of $42.26 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

This week was more or less a pause from the frenetic pace the past eight weeks since President Trump's inauguration. There is still time to adjust.

At the Close, Friday, March 21, 2025:
Dow: 41,985.35, +32.03 (+0.08%)
NASDAQ: 17,784.05, +92.42 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 5,667.56, +4.67 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 19,454.30, -82.97 (-0.42%)

For the Week:
Dow: +497.16 (+1.20%)
NASDAQ: +29.96 (+0.17%)
S&P 500: +28.62 (+0.51%)
NYSE Composite: +222.96 (+1.16%)
Dow Transports: -34.94 (-0.24%)

Friday's Options, Futures Expirations Likely to Produce Volatile Session; Transportation Average Close to Bear Market, -17%

The end is here.

The end of the week, that is, which prompts checking the week-to-date results of the major indices heading into what should be a fairly volatile session, being the third Friday of the month, and a quad witching day (stock and index futures, stock and index options expiration) at that.

For the week through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow is up 465 points and residing just below its 200-day moving average. NASDAQ is off 62 points and the S&P is up 24. The NYSE Composite is tagging along with a 305-point gain. The badly-damaged Dow Jones Transportation Average is close to flat-lining, down five points, having just executed a death cross, with the 50-day moving below the 200-day moving average.

The Transports, incidentally, are dangerously close to bear market territory (14,637.85), down 17.55% from its high of 17,1754.38 at the Novemebr 25 close. While seldom mentioned, the Transportation Average is something over which analysts should analyze a bit. Though it's only 20 stocks, they are mostly airlines and freight movers like FedEx, UPS, JB Hunt, Old Dominion, and Ryder. When these companies are ailing, it usually means products and people aren't moving, i.e., the economy is slowing.

One can't help but notice Avis (CAR) down 38%, United Airlines (UAL) off 27.8%, Old Dominion down 18%, and FedEx off 8% in the past month. The only component showing a gain over the past 30 days is UPS, up a paltry 0.3%.

Specking of Dow components, Nike (NIKE, industrial) and FedEx (FDX, transports) both posted quarterly results after the bell Thursday and the results were fairly depressing. Both are down between eight and nine percent heading toward the open.

As Friday's open approaches, stock futures are a bit bemused by the chaotic events from the Trump presidency and its offshoots, primarily the torching of Teslas across the country and continuing lawfare by activist judges shutting down everything coming out of the White House including deportations and federal downsizing. The level of contempt for the president shown by grifting, bought off goons in robes is alarming and unprecedented. Meanwhile, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts has done nothing to reign in these judicial malcontents, his inaction fueling even more vindictive, unconstitutional rulings from district courts around the country.

In the ongoing standoff between the Executive and Judicial branches, the White House is likely to come out ahead sinply because these judges have no mechanism by which to enforce their rulings. That is the job of the executive, and it's impossible to imagine the Trump administration engaged in self-flagellation.

The assault on the White House by unelected judges, media, and loud-mouthed members of the party out of power in congress poses great risk to the welfare of the entire country. Missing is the message to stand with America's president. Instead, Democrats and other minions of the liberal left offer "resistance" as the sole plank in their wobbly, unsustainable platform of opposition to the will of the majority. It's a saddening reminder of how deep the hatred runs in the capital swamp.

Minutes before the open, stock futures have taken a turn for the worse. Dow futures: -260; NASDAQ futures: 172; S&P futures: -40.

Hang on to your hats, though you may want to loosen your grip on some stocks.

At the Close, Thursday, March 20, 2025:
Dow: 41,953.32, -11.31 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 17,691.63, -59.16 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 5,662.89, -12.40 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 19,537.27, -44.05 (-0.22%)

Fed Keeps Rates on Hold; Markets Overjoyed, But the Move Was Vacant; Gold Still Rising, When Silver Breaks Out, Everything Changes

Generally speaking, articles published on Yahoo! Finance tend to lean a little to the left and are almost always anti-Trump.

For its frankness, this story, published Thursday morning caught the eye and didn't disappoint on the Trump-bashing front. The article was penned by Trevor Jennewine, of The Motley Fool, not one of Yahoo! Finance's usual hacks, which may help explain why it made the front page at all.

The article, titled, "A Stock Market Alarm Is Sounding for the Third Time in 20 Years. History Says This Will Happen Next," delineates the bear markets of 2008-09 and 2020, citing negative GDP in both instances. To wit:

2008-2009: GDP declined 2.5% in Q4 2008 and remained negative through Q3 2009 as the housing market collapsed and borrowers defaulted on subprime mortgages. Those events led to the Great Recession.

2020: GDP declined 7.5% in Q2 2020 and remained negative through Q4 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic forced business closures and social distancing that disrupted supply chains around the world. Those events led to brief recession.

Noting that the first quarter of 2025 is currently projected to post a negative result somewhere between 1.5 and 2.6 by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast, the article goes on to posit... "the S&P 500 fell 56% from its high during the Great Recession, and the benchmark index fell 33% during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic."

If GDP does come in at a negative number, Yahoo! will most likely blame Trump and begin blaring about how tariffs and firings of useless federal employees are leading to a recession that will be devastating for the middle class and erode confidence in his presidency.

OK, sure. Yahoo! Finance isn't known for being shy about misplacing blame or beating the Donald's reputation into the ground, but, their honest assessment of the situation in Thursday's article may indicate that the selling in the stock market is far from over, despite wins for the bulls in three of the past four sessions.

While the recent gains may have cheered up some investors, the gains actually haven't amounted to much. While the S&P was rescued from "correction territory", it is still down eight percent from its February high and the NASDAQ is still hunkered down some 12% from December 16 and the Dow Transportation Average even further in the red.

The Big Three - Dow, NASDAQ, S&P - remain below their 200-day moving average while the NYSE Composite has regained the space between the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Other than the Composite (+2.54), they're all down year-to-date, led by the NASDAQ's 8.08% drop.

Earlier Thursday morning, something either spooked the stock futures or there's some serious horse-trading going on behind the scenes. All three majors were positive, then, suddenly, dropped like rocks into a quarry, sinking into the negative waters. It was probably a reaction to ECB President Christine Lagarde, saying US tariffs could negatively affect growth prospects in the Eurozone, a laughable statement at best, since most of Europe is already in a recession or is soon to be.

In any case, with initial unemployment claims coming in quietly at 223,000, there remains plenty to suggest that Wednesday's vacuous gains based on literally no reassurances from the Fed or Chairman Powell are soon to be vaporized by the reality of slowing economies worldwide. Keeping an eye on gold rising ($3,050) and WTI crude oil swooning ($67.17 at 9:00 am ET), there are more indicators pointing to lower for longer on the stocks front. Silver shorts on the COMEX are at record levels. If silver ever breaks out above $35, it could signal a fairly rapid move to $50 and the end of the COMEX, the entire financial system and the world as we know it. Well, maybe not everything blows up, but, silver IS money, after all, and central banks don't own any, except Russia and maybe China.

When silver moves, look out below for falling currencies, economies, and entire Western nations. France, England and South Korea being prime candidates for overthow.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 19, 2025:
Dow: 41,964.63, +383.32 (+0.92%)
NASDAQ: 17,750.79, +246.67 (+1.41%)
S&P 500: 5,675.29, +60.63 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 19,581.32, +159.74 (+0.82%)

Two-Day Rally Stalls, Fails; Stocks Remain Under Pressure Ahead of FOMC Decision; Gold's Record-Setting Rally Continues

Tuesday turned out to be another rough day for equity holders as the rally that began on Friday and was extended Monday fizzled out, pointing the Dow and S&P back towards correction territory. The NASDAQ and Dow Transports remain stuck well below the -10% mark usually associated with corrections.

Wednesday afternoon (2:00 pm ET), the Fed will issue its March rate policy decision, expected to be more or less a reiteration of January's pause, holding the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, considered by veteran bond dealers to be reasonable, though opinions differ.

With inflation cooling, the 10-year note stabilizing around 4.30%, roughly the same as overnight federal funds, new age economists, inbued with years of ultra-low and even negative rates, consider anything above the rate of inflation to be excessive, thus the endless cacophony of cooing for lower rates sooner than what the Fed is offering, which is, ostensibly, one or two rate cuts this year, with the distinct possibility of none at all, barring a recession.

To be fair, the 10-year at four to five percent is historically low and the fact that the yield curve is approaching the contour of a flat line, indicates little more than a sluggish environment where neither lenders nor borrowers are pleased.

Today's FOMC statement will be closely analyzed and dissected for any clues to the Fed's intentions. Quarterly projections by Fed members and Chairman Powell's press conference will also be scrutinized by analysts and the financial media. Powell's question and answer period may be more interesting than usual given the range of issues the Fed faces, from an inflation-deflation debate to recession possibility, unemployment and a sliding stock market.

More than likely, Powell will be tight-lipped on most topics, claiming data-dependency and a wait-and-see approach.

With the market opening on the positive side, both camps of bulls and bears see opportunity. Bulls may be bargain-hunting while bears still consider stocks overvalued and any gains more potential for downside risk. Lately, any attempts by the market to rally significantly have been quickly quashed as investors have become more and more non-committal in opening new positions, seeking rather to shed losers and trim holdings, taking outsized profits to the bank.

Gold continues to ratchet higher, setting another record at $3,052.40 earlier this morning on the COMEX. Silver continues wavering near recent highs, with the hurdles of $34.50 and $35.00 significant obstacles given the extreme levels of shorting of the second metal.

WTI crude oil continues floundering about between $65 and $68, a reasonable range given the supply-demand dynamics currently in play. Supply being more than adequate and OPEC remaining at lower production levels, President Trump's calls to "drill, baby, drill," may be falling on deaf ears.

Bitcoin appears to have based at $80,000. Since making a double-bottom a week ago, upside movement has been limited. There are indications that a drop below $80,000 would trigger a rapid sell-off of another $10,000, with modest support around $70,000. Bitcoin's rally from $70,000 to $90,000 took just 10 days (November 4 - 14, 2024) which means buying was thin. There's also a good amount of fresh money in play from mid-November to mid-February that is currently held at a loss. When buyer's remorse becomes a call to action, the pace of selling could overwhelm the high-sided "hodlers" as diamond hands turn to coal.

With stocks hitting the high road prior to what's expected to be a rather mundane Fed announcement, the potential for an afternoon swoon becomes increasingly possible. Unless Chairman Powell indicates some form of relief on the way or the infamous dot plots offer more downside direction on rates, stock marketeers may be once more disappointed.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 18, 2024:
Dow: 41,581.31, -260.32 (-0.62%)
NASDAQ: 17,504.12, -304.55 (-1.71%)
S&P 500: 5,614.66, -60.46 (-1.07%)
NYSE Composite: 5,614.66, -60.46 (-1.07%)

Stocks Hold Friday Gains, Advance Second Straight Day; Gold Surges to Record as Fed Preps for FOMC Decision Wednesday

Stocks took the high road on Monday, following up on Friday's snap-back rally, posting gains in all the majors though the finish was extremely weak. In particular, NASDAQ, which was up 170 points with an hour left in the session, shed 2/3s of its gains into the close.

Monday, the government said retail sales rose a scant 0.2% in February. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% increase. Restaurant sales were down 1.5%, the largest decline in 13 months.

On Tuesday, the market needs to digest housing starts, building permits, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilization before the opening bell. Those readings are expected to come largely in line with estimates. Import prices are probably not reflective of tariff effects yet.

Housing starts ripped 11.2% higher after dropping 11.5% in January, well above estimates of a +1.4% monthly gain. Building Permits fell 1.2% month over month.

Capacity utilization stepped up to 78.2 percent, a rate that is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. Industrial Production was solid, up 0.7% in February.

On Wednesday, the FOMC delivers the second rate policy decision of 2025, expected to keep the federal funds target rate on hold, citing changing, challenging conditions. Following the 2:00 announcement, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and likely will take questions concerned over any deviation from economic projections from December. FOMC participants are not expected to cause much turbulence, though the market appears on edge, ready to drop another shoe, so to speak.

With the FOMC looming, Tuesday may be a repeat performance of Monday or could extend the tail that appeared late in Monday's session. Despite the seemingly large gains of the past two sessions, the majors are barely off last week's bottoms and have a lot of work to do just to

Resistance exists not far from where stocks closed Monday. A key level for the S&P appears at 5,700 and the index is at six-month lows. Buyers that fueled the rally from mid-September through mid-February must contend with being caught in a valuation trap. There's support for the S&P at 5400, 5200 and 5000, though it is ill-defined. Market forces have already signaled prevailing bearish conditions. The likelihood of a sustained rally rests on very slim assumptions and long odds.

The Dow and NASDAQ have similar set-ups with overhead resistance restraining the upside and market bottoms from August and September - the result of extensive coordinated and correlated algorithms - serving as markers for directional purposes.

From a chartist perspective, the overall picture is less-than-encouraging for the bulls. Sentiment has turned bearish, for many good reasons, among them continuing geo-political turbulence, trade and tariff concerns, expected GDP collapse for the first quarter, rising unemployment, and the potential for a recession in the U.S., rivaling what appears to be weak conditions across Europe, with political leadership steering economies toward a glacial outcome.

One could easily assume the worst is yet to come in Europe, though the equity markets in France, Germany, Britain, Spain, and elsewhere are trading at levels at or near all-time records. That particular anomaly is probably due more to a weakening U.S. dollar than to any factual basis of market fundamentals. Ir's almost as if Europeans are unaware that the equity bubble is bursting or their markets are even more divorced from reality than those in the United States. Sometimes, reality is stranger than fiction and this appears to be the case for most of Europe.

Stock levels in European markets are unsustainable, especially in the face of a U.S.-led recession. Should that emerge as the primary economic driver, the fall may be devastating.

On the other hand, European nations are hell-bent on continuing and even expanding the assault against Russia, calling for war-time spending via issuance of new debt in the trillions of euros. No doubt, a fresh infusion of cash and credit - or, at least the promise of such - will continue fueling an equity rally, but the logic behind further victimization of Russia, just as the Russians and Americans appear on the verge of a deal to partition Ukraine into smaller, more-readily digested territories, seems ill-conceived.

Perhaps the best analysis of the European condition is that their leaders, after persuing objectives laid out by the WEF and the "Great Reset" ideology for the past 15 years and now seeing them fail, are drowning in their own pools of tears. Unable to admit defeat, and, with the very real prospect of America pulling back its offensive and defensive postures, they have joined hands around a doomsday plot. Like the incursion by Ukrainian forces into Kursk, they seem to be willing to trade short term benefits for long term failure.

Such short-sighted leadership will almost certainly lead to devastating outcomes.

In light of the shuffling madness (hat tip to Ian Anderson and Jethro Tull) European investors and institutions are doing all they can to inspire confidence, buying stocks at higher and higher levels without regard to inflation, civil unrest and a generally unamused - and completely disregarded - public.

With European adventurism as a backdrop, there's no wonder gold is breaking to new records daily. From the ground level, faith and confidence in the entire European union project has been shattered. The pubic has grown weary of unelected Brussels and its dictates, longing for a return to peace and prosperity which the leadership is unable to provide. Decades of bad policies and worse decisions are soon to be coming back to haunt the continent and the British. Europe appears to be nothing less than a rudderless ship headed directly toward an iceberg while the captain and first mates are asleep in their cozy cabins.

Prospects for gold and a return to sound money may not have been this good since prior to World War I. For more than a century, central banks have ridden hard money into the ground but the game has changed. Politicians, being woefully behind the curve, are either unwilling or unable to accept the reality of new conditions. Instead they deny the truth and fight against the winds of change, like Don Quixote tilting at windmills.

The gold rally and its race to the ultimate end of being the source of all wealth and power are now unstoppable. The only question now is the timing of when fiat currencies reach their final destinations as worthless paper. It could be many more years or possibly soon. Whatever the case, gold will continue to march higher against all other currencies as the absolute store of value.

As the sun brightens over lower Manhattan this Tuesday morning, gold's shimmer is rivaling its celestial counterpart. Already today it is up another percentage point, arcing over $3.040 per ounce on the COMEX. Silver is following, at $34.55 and rising. Precious metals prices have been soaring in countries around the world. India is a prime example, with prices for gold and silver at record levels.

Stock futures are falling like dominoes. S&P Futures are down 18 points. Dow futures off 80, NASDAQ futures down 101 with the open approaching.

WTI Crude oil is up over $68/barrel, but still seems to be seeking a bottom. There are no good reasons for crude to rise and plenty of rationales for furhter declines or at least a range-bound regime short term.

At the Close, Monday, March 17, 2025:
Dow: 41,841.63, +353.44 (+0.85%)
NASDAQ: 17,808.66, +54.58 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 5,675.12, +36.18 (+0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 19,494.71, +263.36 (+1.37%)