Friday's Options, Futures Expirations Likely to Produce Volatile Session; Transportation Average Close to Bear Market, -17%

The end is here.

The end of the week, that is, which prompts checking the week-to-date results of the major indices heading into what should be a fairly volatile session, being the third Friday of the month, and a quad witching day (stock and index futures, stock and index options expiration) at that.

For the week through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow is up 465 points and residing just below its 200-day moving average. NASDAQ is off 62 points and the S&P is up 24. The NYSE Composite is tagging along with a 305-point gain. The badly-damaged Dow Jones Transportation Average is close to flat-lining, down five points, having just executed a death cross, with the 50-day moving below the 200-day moving average.

The Transports, incidentally, are dangerously close to bear market territory (14,637.85), down 17.55% from its high of 17,1754.38 at the Novemebr 25 close. While seldom mentioned, the Transportation Average is something over which analysts should analyze a bit. Though it's only 20 stocks, they are mostly airlines and freight movers like FedEx, UPS, JB Hunt, Old Dominion, and Ryder. When these companies are ailing, it usually means products and people aren't moving, i.e., the economy is slowing.

One can't help but notice Avis (CAR) down 38%, United Airlines (UAL) off 27.8%, Old Dominion down 18%, and FedEx off 8% in the past month. The only component showing a gain over the past 30 days is UPS, up a paltry 0.3%.

Specking of Dow components, Nike (NIKE, industrial) and FedEx (FDX, transports) both posted quarterly results after the bell Thursday and the results were fairly depressing. Both are down between eight and nine percent heading toward the open.

As Friday's open approaches, stock futures are a bit bemused by the chaotic events from the Trump presidency and its offshoots, primarily the torching of Teslas across the country and continuing lawfare by activist judges shutting down everything coming out of the White House including deportations and federal downsizing. The level of contempt for the president shown by grifting, bought off goons in robes is alarming and unprecedented. Meanwhile, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts has done nothing to reign in these judicial malcontents, his inaction fueling even more vindictive, unconstitutional rulings from district courts around the country.

In the ongoing standoff between the Executive and Judicial branches, the White House is likely to come out ahead sinply because these judges have no mechanism by which to enforce their rulings. That is the job of the executive, and it's impossible to imagine the Trump administration engaged in self-flagellation.

The assault on the White House by unelected judges, media, and loud-mouthed members of the party out of power in congress poses great risk to the welfare of the entire country. Missing is the message to stand with America's president. Instead, Democrats and other minions of the liberal left offer "resistance" as the sole plank in their wobbly, unsustainable platform of opposition to the will of the majority. It's a saddening reminder of how deep the hatred runs in the capital swamp.

Minutes before the open, stock futures have taken a turn for the worse. Dow futures: -260; NASDAQ futures: 172; S&P futures: -40.

Hang on to your hats, though you may want to loosen your grip on some stocks.

At the Close, Thursday, March 20, 2025:
Dow: 41,953.32, -11.31 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 17,691.63, -59.16 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 5,662.89, -12.40 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 19,537.27, -44.05 (-0.22%)