This week's historic stock market moves - both up and down - resulted in massive gains for the majors, but were counterbalanced by turmoil in fixed income, as long-dated treasury yields exploded higher and spreads blew out.
The ultimate folly of the current condition would be to predict what happens next since tariffs, despite President Trump's call for a pause on implementation of retaliatory ones, are still a matter of global concern that remains unresolved.
Conditions in Ukraine Russian success in its Special Military Operation as opposed to any cease-fire or peace plan. Europe has pledged $23 billion more in support of Ukraine while the United States has remained still regarding support for the embattled nation. An announcement by President Trump to cease funding and support for Ukraine would probably speed along prospects for peace despite Europe's desire for continuation of the war.
The Middle East remains a powder keg.
Dr. Jeffrey Sachs, Jeffrey Sachs delivered a sobering message at Saturday's Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Antalya, Turkey. Sachs is director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and has been an adviser to the United Nations for decades. His words should be taken very seriously.
Stocks
Despite the record-setting rally of Wednesday and Friday's follow-on gains, stocks finished the week lower than the close on Wednesday and still down significantly from prior highs and year-to-date.
So far in 2025, the Dow is down 5.48%, the S&P down 8.81%, and the NASDAQ, -13.39%. Dow Transports remain the laggard, down 15.64 year-to-date and -23.43% from November highs, still a bear market.
The NASDAQ is still off 17.10% from the record high of December 18 (20,173.89) and the S&P is down 12.71 in less than two months. While definitions of corrections and bear markets are touted at -10% and -20% respectively by the mainstream financial media, acknowledged experts stick to the indicators from decades of experience, defining a correction as a decline of 5-15% and a bear market anything greater than that.
Judging by the performance of all indices and taking into account primary trend reversal in the Dow Transports, confirmed by the Dow Industrials, there is no doubt that a bear market is in place. Thus, anybody putting faith in the hockey stick save of Wednesday, April 9, as an indication of good times ahead is likely to be disappointed in weeks and months ahead.
Bear markets generally have a duration of nine to 18 months, and this one, kicked off at the February 19 peak on the S&P, has at least another seven months to run. Confidence has slipped and is a much better indicator than hope. Turmoil that remains unresolved in global markets and especially in treasuries is as good an indicator as any that the good times from last week will not persist for long.
The week ahead will be punctuated by earnings releases from some of the most important companies in the U.S., including five Dow components, a generous dose of bank and financials, and the most important semiconductor company in the world, Taiwan Semi.
Monday: (before open) Goldman Sachs (GS), M&T Bank (MTB); (after close) BioStem (BSEM), Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP); Applied Blockchain (APLD);
Tuesday: (before open) Bank of America (BAC), Ericsson (ERIC), Citibank (C), PNC (PNC), Albertsons (ACI), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); (after close) J.B.Hunt (JBHT), Interactive Brokers (IBKR); United Airlines (UAL)
Wednesday: (before open) USBancorp (USB), Abbott Labs (ABT), Progressive (PGR), Travelers (TRV), ASML (ASML); (after close) Alcoa (AA), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Great Southern Bank (GSBC), Bank of the Ozarks (OZK), CSX (CSX)
Thursday: (before open) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Regions Financial (RF), Ally (ALLY), DR Horton (DHI), Fifth Third Bank (FITB), Anmerican Express (AXP), United Health (UNH); (after close) Netflix (NFLX).
The economic calendar features Federal Reserve officials Bostic and Barkin speaking on Monday. Import and Export Price Index on Tuesday. Wednesday's offerings include March Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories. Thursday provides Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the Philly Fed.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date |
1 Mo |
1.5 mo |
2 Mo |
3 Mo |
4 Mo |
6 Mo |
1 Yr |
| 03/07/2025 |
4.38 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.34 |
4.29 |
4.29 |
4.05 |
| 03/14/2025 |
4.37 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.33 |
4.30 |
4.29 |
4.09 |
| 03/21/2025 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.33 |
4.33 |
4.29 |
4.26 |
4.04 |
| 03/28/2025 |
4.38 |
4.35 |
4.35 |
4.33 |
4.30 |
4.26 |
4.04 |
| 04/04/2025 |
4.36 |
4.35 |
4.36 |
4.28 |
4.25 |
4.14 |
3.86 |
| 04/11/2025 |
4.37 |
4.35 |
4.38 |
4.34 |
4.35 |
4.21 |
4.04 |
| Date |
2 Yr |
3 Yr |
5 Yr |
7 Yr |
10 Yr |
20 Yr |
30 Yr |
| 03/07/2025 |
3.99 |
4.01 |
4.09 |
4.21 |
4.32 |
4.66 |
4.62 |
| 03/14/2025 |
4.02 |
4.00 |
4.09 |
4.20 |
4.31 |
4.65 |
4.62 |
| 03/21/2025 |
3.94 |
3.92 |
4.00 |
4.12 |
4.25 |
4.60 |
4.59 |
| 03/28/2025 |
3.89 |
3.91 |
3.98 |
4.11 |
4.27 |
4.65 |
4.64 |
| 04/04/2025 |
3.68 |
3.66 |
3.72 |
3.84 |
4.01 |
4.44 |
4.41 |
| 04/11/2025 |
3.96 |
3.98 |
4.15 |
4.32 |
4.48 |
4.91 |
4.85 |
Even a cursory glance at the changes in yield on notes and bonds - from 1-year out to 30 years - reveals the degree to which the treasury market was disrupted over the past week. 18 basis points on the 1-year, 28 on the 2-year, 47 on the 10-year, and 44 basis points on the 30-year over the course of just one week demonstrates clearly that the most important market in world finance was in extreme turmoil.
During the week there were rumors of an unwinding basis trade and the imminent demise of a hedge fund or multiple funds, which may explain President Trump's quick reversal of his tariff agenda, suspending the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days this past Wednesday.
While stocks staged an historic rally on the news, treasuries sold off, with yields increasing from Tuesday to Wednesday, remaining elevated into the weekend, suggesting, at the very least, that whatever issues had arisen had not been rectified and remain unresolved. This condition sets up another volatile week ahead.
Spreads remain high, with 2s-10s blowing out to +52 basis points, and full spectrum exploding from a multi-month low of 5 last week, to an extreme +38 basis points as of Friday's close.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
Oil/Gas
$61.48 was the closing price of WTI crude oil on Friday, just slightly higher than last week's finish at $62.32. If anything was constant through the past number of tumultuous weeks it was oil's price decline. There is almost no indication that the barrelhead price of oil is going to increase, and drivers should expect prices at the pump to move lower at a rapid pace unless refiners choose to greedily increase margins, a prospect that would be damaging to the U.S. economy, thus, unlikely to occur.
The expectation is for the national average to fall below $3.00 within the next month and possibly fall further as a combination of reduced demand and oversupply takes hold.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.16, down six cents from last week.
Gas prices this week were down across the country, led by California is dropping four cents this week to $4.86 after a run-up over the past few weeks. Oklahoma, at $2.69, is the cheapest, followed by Mississippi and Tennessee ($2.70), all lower than last week. South Carolina checks in at $2.73, folloed by Louisiana and Texas ($2.76). Alabama ($2.79) and Arkansas ($2.80) round out the lows in the Southeast. Georgia dropped back below $3.00, to $2.95. Florida remains the outlier, at $3.07.
Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.36) and Maryland ($3.19), New England and East coast states all range between $2.81 (New Hampshire) and $3.07 (Delaware). New York was down two cents, at $3.07.
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), though the price is eight cents lower than last week. Ohio ($2.97) joins Kentucky ($2.81), Kansas ($2.85), Missouri ($2.90), and Iowa ($2.99) are over $3.00 a gallon, though only by a few cents. The West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.34, though Oregon ($3.95) and Nevada ($3.90) are dangerously close but will likely see price declines shortly. Idaho is at $3.30, while neighboring Utah is $3.16, both down three cents through the week.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at a few more states this week, with 23 hitting the mark as opposed to just 15 last week. Prospects for lower gas prices are very good now, though it's likely going to be a little while before Trump gets them down where he'd like them, with a national average around $2.60 to $2.75.
On the supply side, the president's "drill, baby, drill" directive has been met with yawns and inconsistent support by oil producers who are reluctant to spend money on new projects when prices are, or could be, falling. While depressed oil and gas prices are a boon to the overall economy, they hurt profits at the major drillers and refiners, prompting a general wait-and-see attitude currently. Along with his tariff regime, the path to lower gas prices will likely come from lower demand with some contribution from greater Middle East supply.
Bitcoin
This week: $84,401.71
Last week: $78,955.22
2 weeks ago: $83,825.10
6 months ago: $65,195.47
One year ago: $65,779.36
Five years ago: $7,259.64
Bitcoin bounced back this week, like just about everything else.
Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4, more than two months ago, but there's speculation that if it held $75,500 - which it did - that the price of bitcoin would be headed to $250,000. That's quite the bold call. Whether it actually does so or not depends largely on the continuing chaotic condition, which seems to have gripped the entire planet.
The argument that bitcoin, in ways similar to gold and silver, provides a safety net against confusion, far, greed, and assorted other emotional tics upon the global financial system, is, in itself, a major speculation. This is an asset with a 16-year history, based upon a white paper authored by an anonymous source, somebody named Satoshi Nakamoto, which is probably an anagram with a hidden meaning.
While speculation is always and everywhere part art and part math, the bitcoin speculation has to be considered one of the more extreme and dangerous of recent history. The past is littered with stories of tulips, John Law's gamble on Southeastern American land, beaning babies, and baseball stars (Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire, and Sammy Sosa come to mind), which have one thing in common: they were all spectacular investments until they collapsed.
With bitcoin, the appropriate phrase would be, "this time is different," a dubious sentiment.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 101.12; last week: 103.53
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 3/16: $2,993.60
Gold price 3/23: $3,028.20
Gold price 3/30: $3,090.00
Gold price 4/6: $3,056.10
Gold price 4/13: $3,254.90
Silver price 3/16: $34.11
Silver price 3/23: $33.29
Silver price 3/30: $34.82
Silver price 4/6: $29.52
Silver price 4/13: $32.19
Gold's rebound has been nothing short of spectacular, rising nearly $200 in just the past week, with the April 9 gain from $3,018 to $3,141 a sensational $122 in just 24 hours on the criminal COMEX. Obviously, Trump's assault on the global financial apparatus had some people wrong-footed and others just plain wrong. If this week's activity in precious metals was a flight to safety and surety, there were more than just a few participants.
The next leg higher (and there will be one, whether PMs pull back from these levels or not) will likely be led by silver, which leapt past gold in terms of percentage gain on Friday. While gold on April 11 was up 2.44%, silver gained 4.67%, nearly double the advance. A gold:silver ratio over 100 - which is what it's been for two weeks running - should prove to be a very short-lived event. The ratio has been bounding between 88 and 92 since late December. As the price of gold was sprinting higher, silver struggled to keep up.
The GSR is approaching levels seen only at the beginning of the pandemic of 2020, which lasted only two months at levels above 100, from mid-March to mid-May, before pulling back. Whichever direction prices proceed, the GSR is likely to stay somewhat elevated before reverting toward the mean, which is around 75. The absolute kicker to anything and everything concerning PMs is the unpredictability of the ongoing situation.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price |
Low |
High |
Average |
Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: |
37.01 |
51.95 |
40.40 |
39.50 |
| 1 oz silver bar: |
39.05 |
51.00 |
42.73 |
41.94 |
| 1 oz gold coin: |
3,363.05 |
3,499.50 |
3,417.65 |
3,401.41 |
| 1 oz gold bar: |
3,300.00 |
3,480.20 |
3,391.10 |
3,394.05 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rebounded sharply, to $41.14, gaining $2.57 from the April 6 price of $38.57 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Like it or not, President Trump, nor any other individual or group of men and women, can solve all the world's problems. A period of uncertainty has been in effect for the better part of the last three decades and is not likely to soon be resolved soon.
The continued rise in the price of gold since the middle of October, 2022, which has nearly doubled since, is probably the single best indicator of the increased level of uncertainty on a global basis.
To remain vigilant and prepared for any circumstance is hardly conducive to any kind of reasonable expectations, though it remains always and everywhere better to light a candle than to curse the darkness.
At the Close, Friday, April 11, 2025:
Dow: 40,212.71, +619.05 (+1.56%)
NASDAQ: 16,724.46, +337.14 (+2.06%)
S&P 500: 5,363.36, +95.31 (+1.81%)
NYSE Composite: 18,219.65, +329.08 (+1.84%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1897.85 (+4.95%)
NASDAQ: +1136.67 (+7.29%)
S&P 500: +289.78 (+5.70%)
NYSE Composite: +601.04 (+3.41%)
Dow Transports: +249.22 (+1.89%)
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