Is the Bottom In or Was Monday's Rally a Bear Market Bump?; CPI Lowest in Four Years; Gold Lower, Crude Oil Soaring

The jury is still out.

Whether Monday's smashing rally was a sure sign that the bottom for stocks is "in" or the temporary China-USA trade deal worked out over the weekend ignited a wicked bear market rally.

Signs seem to be leaning toward the positive as Donald Trump reshapes the economic landscape. Additionally, Tuesday's reading on April CPI saw consumer prices rise at their slowest pace since February, 2021, increasing 2.3% over the prior year and up just 0.2% for the month.

Monday's face-ripping rally had other effects, sending gold to its lowest level in two weeks, dropping close to $3,200 as the day wore on.

Futures are mixed heading toward Tuesday's opening bell. Just before 9:00 am ET, Dow futures are off 180 points, S&P futures are flat-lining and NASDAQ futures are up 40.

It's no longer wait-and-see for many eager investors, judging by the outsized gains on the NASDAQ.

At the Close, Monday, May 12, 2025:
Dow: 42,410.10, +1,160.72 (+2.81%)
NASDAQ: 18,708.34, +779.43 (+4.35%)
S&P 500: 5,844.19, +184.28 (+3.26%)
NYSE Composite: 19,711.55, +392.35 (+2.03%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Dullest Week of the Year Comes as Welcome Relief; Bitcoin Powers Past $100,000; Trade and Tariff Talk Toned Down

The week just past was about the calmest markets have been this year. Stocks barely budged on a weekly basis. Treasuries stagnated, the largest move was up 8 basis points on 5-year notes. The short end of the curve, from one month out to six months, was flat as a pancake, primarily because the Fed held steady on the federal funds target rate at the FOMC meeting mid-week.

While Jerome Powell may become infamous for his "I don't see the stag or the flation," comment, he's managed to produce (with ample assistance from the Trump administration) a stagnant U.S. economy with almost no inflation, which may be the best that consumers can expect and a welcome relief from wild gyrations of the past four-plus years.

A break in the action is more than likely "a good thing," as Martha Stewart might quip. Summer is upon us and admittedly, plenty of people are worn out from the politics, the bickering, the questioning and the roller coaster ride since 2020. Take a deep breath and relax.

Other than bitcoin vaulting over $100,000, nothing much happened. Unless one wants to make points over Trump's trade deal with the UK - all $148 billion of it of it - or the first American pope, embrace the calm.

Stocks

Though it didn't seem like it, all the major averages finished lower on a weekly basis. It was a close call, the worst of it on the S&P 500, which ended down 26.76 points (-0.47%).

Agree with it or not, bear market conditions persist. The Dow is down the least, -8.36% from its December 4 high (45,014.04). The S&P peaked at 6,144.15 on February 19 and is down 8.88% since. The NASDAQ is off 11.13% from its peak of 20,173.89 on December 16 of last year with a ton of overhead resistance just beyond 20,000. Call that a correction or whatever Wall Street spin is appropriate, but the bearish slant of the charts is plain to see.

Markets got a 90-day reprieve from Trump on a tariff pause while deals are being worked out, but more than a month has passed already and the first actual effects will not be known until late summer at the earliest.

Earnings reports are beginning to wind down, with Cisco, Applied Materials, Alibaba, and Walmart the most significant among those reporting in the coming week.

Monday: (before open) NRG (NRG), FOX (FOXA), Sportradar (SRAD), Chegg (CHGG); (after close) Nuscale (SMR), Hertz (HTZ), Blink (BLNK), Petrobras (PBR)

Tuesday: (before open) JD.com (JD), Honda (HMC), Under Armour (UAA), Landstar (LSTR); (after close) SurgePays (SURG), Kindercare (KLC), Karman Space & Defense (KRMN)

Wednesday: (before open) Tencent (TCEHY), Ars Pharma (SPRY); (after close) Boot Barn (BOOT), Cisco (CSCO), Jack in the Box (JACK)

Thursday: (before open) John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Alibaba (BABA), Birkenstock (BIRK); (after close) Cava (CAVA), Galactic (SPCE), Applied Materials (AMAT)

Friday: (before open) Mastech Digital (MSHH), Codere (CDRO).

Since they did what everybody thought they would do - nothing - the Federal Reserve's May 5-6 FOMC meeting was really kind of a bust. The initial reaction was a gain of 20 points on the S&P and a rise early Thursday, but after peaking at 5,718, the 500 ended the week at 5,659. The Fed had nearly nothing to do with any moves in the market.

April CPI will be reported Tuesday before the bell. The mortgage purchase index and the weekly EIA report on oil and distillates are on tap for Wednesday.

Thursday is jam-packed with April PPI, reports on regional economic activity from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, capacity utilization, industrial production, April retail sales and the weekly unemployment report of initial and continuing claims.

Friday brings reports on housing starts, building permits, import prices and the University of Michigan's monthly survey of consumer sentiment.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/04/2025	4.36	4.35	4.36	4.28	4.25	4.14	3.86
04/11/2025	4.37	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.21	4.04
04/17/2025	4.36	4.35	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.22	3.99
04/25/2025	4.34	4.37	4.36	4.32	4.32	4.22	3.95
05/02/2025	4.38	4.36	4.34	4.33	4.41	4.26	4.00
05/09/2025	4.37	4.36	4.34	4.34	4.40	4.28	4.05

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/04/2025	3.68	3.66	3.72	3.84	4.01	4.44	4.41
04/11/2025	3.96	3.98	4.15	4.32	4.48	4.91	4.85
04/17/2025	3.81	3.82	3.95	4.13	4.34	4.82	4.80
04/25/2025	3.74	3.76	3.88	4.06	4.29	4.75	4.74
05/02/2025	3.83	3.82	3.92	4.11	4.33	4.81	4.79
05/09/2025	3.88	3.85	4.00	4.18	4.37	4.86	4.83

Spreads were higher this week, signaling continued stress in the treasury market. Demand for U.S. dollars continues to wane and Trump's tariff gambit isn't help the situation one bit. If anything, more foreign buyers are seeking out bi-lateral trade deals without the need of treasuries and some already employing gold reserves.

2s-10s are +49 basis points and have been at that level or higher since just after the April 2nd "Liberation Day" that sent all dollar-denominated assets on a collision course with reality. Full spectrum jumped from +5 to +38 from 4/4 to 4/11 and hit a new high this week at +46.

The treasury yield curve is about as flat as its ever been, with the low in the middle - 3.85% on 3-year notes - and the 20-year just 0.03 higher than the 30, at 4.86. The difficulty of making money as a lender with spreads about just one percent cannot be understated. There will be casualties. It's just a matter of time.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at a price of $61.06, versus last Friday's $58.38, which was the lowest level since February 5, 2021 ($56.85). Oil's gain on the week appears to stem from an oversold condition. Given that there was no news on which to hang a rally, this week's bump to the upside should be considered little more than a dead cat bounce off extreme lows.

Speculators in the futures market probably sensed the time was right for a bear market rally and jumped into fray feet first. Though the gain was close to $3, there's nothing supporting WTI crude at any price above $60. Expect to see it back down into the mid-50s in short order.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.10, down four cents from last week. Yahoo Finance believes the national average will be below $3.00 this summer, as inventories stabilize, OPEC production hikes take hold, and refinery maintenance has been mostly completed. The inevitable re-alignment with the oil price may have finally begun.

Gas prices continued to fluctuate across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.81, though that is up eight cents on the week and likely caused by the state's incessant taxation of anything and everything touched by consumers. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.61, with Oklahoma, next-cheapest in the nation at $2.64, edging out Louisiana ($2.66) by just two cents. South Carolina checked in at 2.69. Tennessee, Arkansas (2.70), Alabama ($2.71) and Tennessee ($2.72) round out the lows in the Southeast. With North Carolina at $2.81, Georgia at $2.86 and Florida dropping 18 cents to $2.90, the entire region is a driver's dream, all below $3.00.

Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.28) and Maryland ($3.13), New England and East coast states all range between $2.86 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (Vermont).

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price slightly higher than last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest. Outside of Indiana ($3.07) and Michigan ($3.05), the entire region is sub-$3.00, from Ohio and Kentucky to the Dakotas.

Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.24. Oregon ($3.86) and Nevada ($3.85) continue seeing stable prices as well. Arizona appears headed for sub-$3.00, in at $3.26, though neighboring New Mexico is a relative bargain at $2.75. Idaho and neighboring Utah are at $3.24 and $3.25, respectively.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in more states this week, with at least 28 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices are beginning to bear fruit for American drivers.

Bitcoin

This week: $104,416.70
Last week: $95,497.28
2 weeks ago: $93,927.10
6 months ago: $88,470.49
One year ago: $61,151.16
Five years ago: $9,383.02

On Thursday, Bitcoin bounded over $100,00 for the first time since February 4, the timing of which was suspect as the quick run-up from $97,000 to $103,000 happened on Thursday, just as Democrats, joined by three Republicans in the Senate kept the GENIUS act - which would codify regulations regarding stablecoins and other crypto-related issues such as security and safeguards against insider trading and money laundering - from advancing for a full senate vote.

Democrats scoffed that the other side made last-minute changes that members were unable to scrutinize. They also pointed fingers at President Trump, who has vested interests in various crypto ventures. Nonetheless, bitcoin soared, as critics and pundits expect the issues to be ironed out and the bill presented again shortly, as early as the coming week and passage assured. Whether that happens to be wishful thinking or actual fact remains to be seen. The opposing sides appear to have some distance between them.

The usual talk about bitcoin breaking further upwards towards $200,000 and beyond was the dominant theme once the vapor-coin ripped through the psychological barrier at $100,000, proof that some people are prone to believe in fairy tales, unicorns and flying pigs.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 101.25; last week: 100.91

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/13: $3,254.90
Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30
Gold price 4/27: $3,330.20
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10

Silver price 4/13: $32.19
Silver price 4/20: $32.54
Silver price 4/27: $33.34
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88

Both gold and silver rebounded over the course of the week, showing tremendous resilience against the usual suppression tactics, though the idea that bitcoin would gain while gold and silver declined makes little sense in the larger scheme of protecting one's wealth against the predations of governments and central bankers.

Even though gold pulled back from $3,500 recently, arguments against holding, hoarding, or otherwise accumulating gold and/or silver are lacking. The price has only one direction, especially with governments working hard to devalue the dollar, yen, euro, pound, yuan, and franc.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	34.00	49.90	40.76	39.75
1 oz silver bar:	39.00	50.12	43.77	42.98
1 oz gold coin:	3,460.10	3,573.20	3,497.54	3,475.24
1 oz gold bar:	3,463.36	3,523.20	3,491.29	3,487.18

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose sharply through the week, to $41.82, a $1.34 advance from the May 4 price of $40.48 per troy ounce.

Premia remain high. Gold and silver continue to hold recent gains quite well despite lack of enthusiasm from the general public. Central banks have been in the driver's seat since the end of 2022. In particular, gold has reached high levels so quickly, retail buyers may be reluctant to dive in at these prices. Silver is at bargain basement levels, vis-a-vis the gold:silver ratio remaining over 100, but without the whale-like impact of central bank buyers, retail level purchasing doesn't move the needle.

Additionally, a color of small-time silver stackers are discouraged at the metal's lack of explosiveness and may be looking for even lower entry points. Whether silver declines back into the 20s or not, buying when the GSR is multiples of the historic ratio seems to be a total no-brainer. There's no other way to put it. The silver price has probably more to do with its industrial uses than as a monetary metal. By dousing the advance of the "green wave" and with the possibility of a global recession still on a back burner, there might be some virtue to holding off on silver presently, but, there isn't much room for error in taking such a position.

From the perspective of a long-term chart back to the bottom near the end of 2022, silver is in a channel that suggests further advances. A pullback to $29.65 might be considered a reasonable expectation, but such a move might also be the result of a protracted global recession, at which point all dollar-denominated assets will drop. At least with silver, if it's in hand, you own it, which is, after all, the main purpose from a monetary standpoint.

Judging by prices on eBay at at online retailers, there is no shortage of small denominations of both metals available, nor is there a shortage of willing buyers at record or near-record prices. As limited as the public may be in terms of market depth, most of the skepticism is lost on buyers once they begin to explore their options. Some degree of FOMO (fear of missing out) cannot be discounted either. Retail buyers in the physical space increasingly do not consider COMEX or spot values valid and are letting the market set prices, as it should be.

WEEKEND WRAP

Investing shouldn't be exciting. It should be disciplined and reasonable. What purports to be a free, open, fair market in stocks is, in reality, anything but. Stocks are ruled by algorithms, computers, big money, and headlines. The preferred place to put money at this juncture is in precious metals, that is, until the real estate market comes back to earth, which is beginning to happen in many metro markets. The global asset bubble is not fully resistant to pinpricks.

At the Close, Friday, May 9, 2025:
Dow: 41,249.38, -119.07 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 17,928.92, +0.78 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 5,659.91, -4.03 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 19,319.20, +5.02 (+0.03%)

For the Week:
Dow: -68.05, (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: -48.81 (-0.27%)
S&P 500: -26.76 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: -67.48 (-0.35%)
Dow Transports: -37.22 (-0.26%)

Bitcoin Surges Past $100,000 as Senate Rejects GENIUS Act, Killing Crypto Legislation

On Thursday, Bitcoin exploded higher, breaking beyond the mythical $100,000 mark for the first time in three months.

Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 mark once again is a major psychological milestone for investors in the broader crypto market. While the price itself doesn’t change Bitcoin’s fundamentals, it signals renewed optimism and confidence in digital assets. Several factors contributed to this surge:

• Trade Deal Optimism: President Trump announced at a major trade agreement with the UK, which fueled market enthusiasm.
• Market Resilience: Bitcoin has rebounded sharply from its April lows of $75,000, demonstrating once more its ability to recover from economic uncertainty.
• Institutional Interest: Large investors and funds continue to accumulate Bitcoin, reinforcing its status as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability.
• ETF Demand: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting sustained institutional buying.

This surge highlights Bitcoin’s evolving role in global finance as no longer just a speculative asset, but one in which it is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven investment and a proxy for fiat currencies.

Bitcoin surging past the $100,000 mark may trigger some deeper confidence in digital assets. However, whether it marks a definitive turning point for mainstream adoption is a bit more nuanced. It remains largely unused as a medium of exchange. Critics point to the tardiness of transactions and bitcoin's inability to operate on a scale similar to established payment processors, i.e., credit and debit cards, PayPal, Stripe, and a slew of imitators.

Breaking such the $100,000 barrier does, to varying degrees, reinforce Bitcoin's image as a mature asset. This milestone signals to retail investors, institutional players, and even some skeptical observers that Bitcoin has the momentum to withstand volatility. It may attract those who have been on the sidelines, certainly sparking broader media coverage and potentially drawing in more investors who are looking for alternative investment avenues or different ways to park money outside of the traditional places like money markets, gold or silver.

Mainstream adoption, however, isn’t driven solely by a dramatic price move. It requires a constellation of developments, including regulatory clarity, robust infrastructure, and clearer pathways to adoption for everyday use. While this price milestone is significant, the sustained involvement of institutional investors, the rollout of user-friendly trading platforms, and advances in scalability and security remain critical.

In essence, while the jump past $100,000 is a sends a signal that Bitcoin has momentum, it's not likely to lead to more tangible developments like integrated financial products, heightened regulatory acceptance, and broader consensus in its role as a hedge or store of value.

Current crypto legislation in Congress is at a crossroads, marked by bipartisan efforts to regulate digital assets - especially stablecoins - while grappling with deep concerns over national security, conflicts of interest, and the pace of innovation. The proposed GENIUS Act, which seeks to establish the first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital stablecoins, has attracted support from both sides of the aisle and significant pushback. Lawmakers are urging that the bill include safeguards against illicit activities and prevent potential conflicts of interest. These issues that have been magnified by the involvement of high-profile figures and their affiliated businesses, especially in regards to President Trump.

Tensions have arisen particularly among Democrats, several of whom recently reversed course on their support. Key figures led by a group of nine Democratic senators had expressed reservations or outright opposition until the legislation addresses their concerns, including ties to Trump-affiliated crypto ventures. These conflicts resulted in a procedural vote of 49-48 against pushing the GENIUS act forward, essentially killing the proposed bill. All Democrats voted against, along with three Republicans, including Rand Paul of Kentucky. Whether or not the House attempts to pick up the reins on crypto legislation remains a clouded picture. With determined resistance emerging, it’s probably a dead issue for the time being.

Ultimately, while the GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) Act and related proposals represent the most serious attempts yet to integrate crypto into a formal regulatory framework in the United States, for now it appears a dead issue. The debate underscores the challenge of regulating a rapidly evolving market without stifling its potential, something the senate was unable to achieve. This negative outcome has left the universe of the broader crypto ecosystem floundering.

Bitcoin adherents managed to see the death of U.S. crypto legislation as a badge of honor, a blow to the status quo and further evidence that bitcoin and the thousands of alt-coins are beyond legislation, being world assets not controlled by borders or governments. The surge past $100,000 was a defiant reminder of bitcoin's emerging role in global finance.

At the same time, gold was down sharply, a confounding adjunct in the changing dynamic of money and currency.

At the Close, Thursday, May 8, 2025:
Dow: 41,368.45, +254.48 (+0.62%)
NASDAQ: 17,928.14, +189.98 (+1.07%)
S&P 500: 5,663.94, +32.66 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 19,314.18, +51.79 (+0.27%)

Stocks Continue to be Grossly Overvalued; Corruption is Unabated; Earnings Don't Matter

Thank goodness earnings season is winding down. It's not been pretty. Many companies, claiming tariff uncertainty, have either lowered their full year guidance or pulled it completely. Maybe the world would be a better place without guidance, without analyst expectations every quarter for every company.

Come on, surprise us!

People need a break from the near-constant din of economic news, forecasts, predictions, data drops, innuendo, guesses and geo-political lies. The truth, or as close as one can get to it, is that corporate executives and politicians (often one and the same) aren't really ever going to open up and say exactly what they're thinking and they're even less prone to let anybody not deeply connected in on what they know and how they know it.

If there's a recession heading America's way, rest assured the common men and women who do all the hard work, raise kids, shop, cook, clean and keep a household will be the last to know. In Washington, D.C., and on New York's Wall Street, they know. They always do.

It's a fact that most trades on the major exchanges are done by computers, completely on their own. It's like 85-90%, and it's gotten to a point at which it is just not trustworthy. For instance, old-timers will tell you that back when actual humans executed most of the trades, stocks didn't go up six percent or eight percent on releasing their earnings report, no matter how good it was. That happens regularly these days.

Also, the S&P doesn't jump or drop 30 or 40 points in 10 or 15 minutes. It's physically impossible for humans to enter in that volume of trading simultaneously to cause a rise or fall like that, but, the S&P did that twice yesterday and it does so on a regular basis.

And, just in case you're wondering when was the last time the gold:silver ratio was over 100:1, as it is now (103 today), the answer is five years ago, just after the onset of the COVID scamdemic. Before that, um, never.

Are stocks overpriced? You betcha.

The Shiller PE or CAPE, is at 34.50, which is down a little from the third highest peak of 37.36, in October of last year. That happens to be higher than the peak before Black Monday in 1929 which ushered in the Great Depression (31.48). The other two higher peaks were in October 2021 (38.58, COVID strikes again) and November 1999, just before the great dot-com bust.

After the close Wednesday, Carvana (CVNA), AppLovin (APP), Cliffs (CLF), AMC (AMC) and others released first quarter earnings. Wednesday morning, Shopify (SHOP), Crocs (CROX), Yeti (YETI), ConocoPhillips (COP), Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD), Peloton (PTON) and others released theirs.

Doesn't matter, just like the Fed keeping the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% yesterday. That rate could be ZERO and people woould still get mailings offering them credit cards with a $400 limit, 35% interest rates and annual fees of $96. There used to be usury laws. Not any more.

The current financial system is running on fumes. It's about to expire. The U.S. dollar has almost no purchasing power which explains why the stock market isn't about investing in strong American companies that produce dividends on a regular basis without fail. It's about making a fast buck, and the bigger and faster the better.

We're still in a bear market. Despite the recent rally, the major indices are still well off their highs. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 3.36%, S&P down 4.26%, and the NASDAQ, -8.14%. That may not sound too bad, but the second leg is coming shortly, which is nearly certain to last longer and drop deeper.

America's finances are a mess. Congress is a den of thieves. Only the connected win, and you and I are not connected.

Why do you think bitcoin is closing in on $100,000 and gold is off its highs, to say nothing of the biggest scam ever, silver at $32 an ounce? It's because the big money controls everything and all that matters are headlines on Bloomberg, CNN, CNBC and Reuters.

There is going to be hell to pay and you and I will be the ones getting the bill.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 7, 2025:
Dow: 41,113.97, +284.97 (+0.70%)
NASDAQ: 17,738.16, +48.50 (+0.27%)
S&P 500: 5,631.28, +24.37 (+0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 19,262.38, +80.22 (+0.42%)

Markets Remain Volatile as China and U.S. Annnouce Tariff Talks; Disney Rockets Higher; Jim Cramer, John Maynard Keynes Advise Standing Still

Market volatility - in both directions - continues to be the major theme of the markets this season. Earnings have been a mixed bag, with some companies thriving - like Microsoft and Meta Platforms - and others just surviving - Amazon and Apple.

Because of tariff trauma, an unhealthy number of companies have either slashed forward guidance or withdrawn it altogether, notably, airlines, JetBlue, American, United, just to name a few. Because of the on/off daily differences of opinions, rumors, and statements, company managers have no way to predict much more than which way the wind might be blowing on any given day, much less three, six or 12 months from now.

There's even more to consider. Warren Buffett steps down. The pope dies. India and Pakistan are exchanging fire. Ukraine is still largely unsettled.

What's a trader or investor to do?

For passive investors like the bulk of workers who are enrolled in long-term pension, IRA, or 401k plans, there's little choice but to hold the line and either retreat to defensive stocks or move funds into fixed income or money markets.

Active traders, especially hedge funds and portfolio managers of the big firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Schwab, Merrill Lynch, et. al., are trying their level best to get a grip on the situation, even though it changes day-to-day.

Perhaps the best advice comes from CNBC's Jim Cramer, not exactly a beacon of logic or prudence, who often advises investors of all stripes to do nothing during earnings season, which is thankfully beginning to wind down. Had one taken such a blod, sage step to stand back, the results may turn out to be of a positive nature. Stocks - of course, depending upon specific allocations - have clawed back all of the losses stemming from the April 2nd "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, and are looking to add to gains at this juncture.

After markets closed on Tuesday, the White House, via Treasury Secretary Bessent, announced that China and the United States would be meeting in Switzerland later this month, the first indication that the two warring sides of the trade imbroglio, are approaching readiness to hammer out some kind of compromise rather than tear each others' economies apart with tariffs of 125-145% on all manner of goods.

At the same time, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported an earnings beat sending shares higher in the after-and-pre market.

Supermicro (SMCI) reported with weak guidance, sending share lower by six percent. Rivian (RIVN) lost money again, posting -0.48, which was actually a beat, but the stock is caught in a downdraft, and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) reported EPS of $1.07, a miss, but the stock is up three percent. All three reported after Tuesday's close.

Wednesday morning offered better news as Disney reported a solid quarter with theme parks resurrected and the addition of over a million subscribers to their various streaming services. Shares are ripping higher by six to eight percent.

On the other hand, UBER reported this morning with a huge earnings beat of 0.83, but the stock is selling off by four percent before the bell, which brings to mind more sage advice, this offered by none other than John Maynard Keynes, who quipped, "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

There may be something to be learned from that.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 6, 2025:
Dow: 40,829.00, -389.83 (-0.95%)
NASDAQ: 17,689.66, -154.58 (-0.87%)
S&P 500: 5,606.91, -43.47 (-0.77%)
NYSE Composite: 19,182.16, -121.08 (-0.63%)