While Jerome Powell may become infamous for his "I don't see the stag or the flation," comment, he's managed to produce (with ample assistance from the Trump administration) a stagnant U.S. economy with almost no inflation, which may be the best that consumers can expect and a welcome relief from wild gyrations of the past four-plus years.
A break in the action is more than likely "a good thing," as Martha Stewart might quip. Summer is upon us and admittedly, plenty of people are worn out from the politics, the bickering, the questioning and the roller coaster ride since 2020. Take a deep breath and relax.
Other than bitcoin vaulting over $100,000, nothing much happened. Unless one wants to make points over Trump's trade deal with the UK - all $148 billion of it of it - or the first American pope, embrace the calm.
Stocks
Though it didn't seem like it, all the major averages finished lower on a weekly basis. It was a close call, the worst of it on the S&P 500, which ended down 26.76 points (-0.47%).
Agree with it or not, bear market conditions persist. The Dow is down the least, -8.36% from its December 4 high (45,014.04). The S&P peaked at 6,144.15 on February 19 and is down 8.88% since. The NASDAQ is off 11.13% from its peak of 20,173.89 on December 16 of last year with a ton of overhead resistance just beyond 20,000. Call that a correction or whatever Wall Street spin is appropriate, but the bearish slant of the charts is plain to see.
Markets got a 90-day reprieve from Trump on a tariff pause while deals are being worked out, but more than a month has passed already and the first actual effects will not be known until late summer at the earliest.
Earnings reports are beginning to wind down, with Cisco, Applied Materials, Alibaba, and Walmart the most significant among those reporting in the coming week.
Monday: (before open) NRG (NRG), FOX (FOXA), Sportradar (SRAD), Chegg (CHGG); (after close) Nuscale (SMR), Hertz (HTZ), Blink (BLNK), Petrobras (PBR)
Tuesday: (before open) JD.com (JD), Honda (HMC), Under Armour (UAA), Landstar (LSTR); (after close) SurgePays (SURG), Kindercare (KLC), Karman Space & Defense (KRMN)
Wednesday: (before open) Tencent (TCEHY), Ars Pharma (SPRY); (after close) Boot Barn (BOOT), Cisco (CSCO), Jack in the Box (JACK)
Thursday: (before open) John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Alibaba (BABA), Birkenstock (BIRK); (after close) Cava (CAVA), Galactic (SPCE), Applied Materials (AMAT)
Friday: (before open) Mastech Digital (MSHH), Codere (CDRO).
Since they did what everybody thought they would do - nothing - the Federal Reserve's May 5-6 FOMC meeting was really kind of a bust. The initial reaction was a gain of 20 points on the S&P and a rise early Thursday, but after peaking at 5,718, the 500 ended the week at 5,659. The Fed had nearly nothing to do with any moves in the market.
April CPI will be reported Tuesday before the bell. The mortgage purchase index and the weekly EIA report on oil and distillates are on tap for Wednesday.
Thursday is jam-packed with April PPI, reports on regional economic activity from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, capacity utilization, industrial production, April retail sales and the weekly unemployment report of initial and continuing claims.
Friday brings reports on housing starts, building permits, import prices and the University of Michigan's monthly survey of consumer sentiment.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 04/04/2025 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.28 | 4.25 | 4.14 | 3.86 |
| 04/11/2025 | 4.37 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.21 | 4.04 |
| 04/17/2025 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.22 | 3.99 |
| 04/25/2025 | 4.34 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.32 | 4.32 | 4.22 | 3.95 |
| 05/02/2025 | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.33 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 4.00 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 4.40 | 4.28 | 4.05 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 04/04/2025 | 3.68 | 3.66 | 3.72 | 3.84 | 4.01 | 4.44 | 4.41 |
| 04/11/2025 | 3.96 | 3.98 | 4.15 | 4.32 | 4.48 | 4.91 | 4.85 |
| 04/17/2025 | 3.81 | 3.82 | 3.95 | 4.13 | 4.34 | 4.82 | 4.80 |
| 04/25/2025 | 3.74 | 3.76 | 3.88 | 4.06 | 4.29 | 4.75 | 4.74 |
| 05/02/2025 | 3.83 | 3.82 | 3.92 | 4.11 | 4.33 | 4.81 | 4.79 |
| 05/09/2025 | 3.88 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.18 | 4.37 | 4.86 | 4.83 |
Spreads were higher this week, signaling continued stress in the treasury market. Demand for U.S. dollars continues to wane and Trump's tariff gambit isn't help the situation one bit. If anything, more foreign buyers are seeking out bi-lateral trade deals without the need of treasuries and some already employing gold reserves.
2s-10s are +49 basis points and have been at that level or higher since just after the April 2nd "Liberation Day" that sent all dollar-denominated assets on a collision course with reality. Full spectrum jumped from +5 to +38 from 4/4 to 4/11 and hit a new high this week at +46.
The treasury yield curve is about as flat as its ever been, with the low in the middle - 3.85% on 3-year notes - and the 20-year just 0.03 higher than the 30, at 4.86. The difficulty of making money as a lender with spreads about just one percent cannot be understated. There will be casualties. It's just a matter of time.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at a price of $61.06, versus last Friday's $58.38, which was the lowest level since February 5, 2021 ($56.85). Oil's gain on the week appears to stem from an oversold condition. Given that there was no news on which to hang a rally, this week's bump to the upside should be considered little more than a dead cat bounce off extreme lows.
Speculators in the futures market probably sensed the time was right for a bear market rally and jumped into fray feet first. Though the gain was close to $3, there's nothing supporting WTI crude at any price above $60. Expect to see it back down into the mid-50s in short order.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.10, down four cents from last week. Yahoo Finance believes the national average will be below $3.00 this summer, as inventories stabilize, OPEC production hikes take hold, and refinery maintenance has been mostly completed. The inevitable re-alignment with the oil price may have finally begun.
Gas prices continued to fluctuate across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.81, though that is up eight cents on the week and likely caused by the state's incessant taxation of anything and everything touched by consumers. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.61, with Oklahoma, next-cheapest in the nation at $2.64, edging out Louisiana ($2.66) by just two cents. South Carolina checked in at 2.69. Tennessee, Arkansas (2.70), Alabama ($2.71) and Tennessee ($2.72) round out the lows in the Southeast. With North Carolina at $2.81, Georgia at $2.86 and Florida dropping 18 cents to $2.90, the entire region is a driver's dream, all below $3.00.
Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.28) and Maryland ($3.13), New England and East coast states all range between $2.86 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (Vermont).
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price slightly higher than last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest. Outside of Indiana ($3.07) and Michigan ($3.05), the entire region is sub-$3.00, from Ohio and Kentucky to the Dakotas.
Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.24. Oregon ($3.86) and Nevada ($3.85) continue seeing stable prices as well. Arizona appears headed for sub-$3.00, in at $3.26, though neighboring New Mexico is a relative bargain at $2.75. Idaho and neighboring Utah are at $3.24 and $3.25, respectively.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in more states this week, with at least 28 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices are beginning to bear fruit for American drivers.
Bitcoin
This week: $104,416.70
Last week: $95,497.28
2 weeks ago: $93,927.10
6 months ago: $88,470.49
One year ago: $61,151.16
Five years ago: $9,383.02
On Thursday, Bitcoin bounded over $100,00 for the first time since February 4, the timing of which was suspect as the quick run-up from $97,000 to $103,000 happened on Thursday, just as Democrats, joined by three Republicans in the Senate kept the GENIUS act - which would codify regulations regarding stablecoins and other crypto-related issues such as security and safeguards against insider trading and money laundering - from advancing for a full senate vote.
Democrats scoffed that the other side made last-minute changes that members were unable to scrutinize. They also pointed fingers at President Trump, who has vested interests in various crypto ventures. Nonetheless, bitcoin soared, as critics and pundits expect the issues to be ironed out and the bill presented again shortly, as early as the coming week and passage assured. Whether that happens to be wishful thinking or actual fact remains to be seen. The opposing sides appear to have some distance between them.
The usual talk about bitcoin breaking further upwards towards $200,000 and beyond was the dominant theme once the vapor-coin ripped through the psychological barrier at $100,000, proof that some people are prone to believe in fairy tales, unicorns and flying pigs.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 101.25; last week: 100.91
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 4/13: $3,254.90
Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30
Gold price 4/27: $3,330.20
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10
Silver price 4/13: $32.19
Silver price 4/20: $32.54
Silver price 4/27: $33.34
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88
Both gold and silver rebounded over the course of the week, showing tremendous resilience against the usual suppression tactics, though the idea that bitcoin would gain while gold and silver declined makes little sense in the larger scheme of protecting one's wealth against the predations of governments and central bankers.
Even though gold pulled back from $3,500 recently, arguments against holding, hoarding, or otherwise accumulating gold and/or silver are lacking. The price has only one direction, especially with governments working hard to devalue the dollar, yen, euro, pound, yuan, and franc.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 34.00 | 49.90 | 40.76 | 39.75 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 39.00 | 50.12 | 43.77 | 42.98 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,460.10 | 3,573.20 | 3,497.54 | 3,475.24 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,463.36 | 3,523.20 | 3,491.29 | 3,487.18 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose sharply through the week, to $41.82, a $1.34 advance from the May 4 price of $40.48 per troy ounce.
Premia remain high. Gold and silver continue to hold recent gains quite well despite lack of enthusiasm from the general public. Central banks have been in the driver's seat since the end of 2022. In particular, gold has reached high levels so quickly, retail buyers may be reluctant to dive in at these prices. Silver is at bargain basement levels, vis-a-vis the gold:silver ratio remaining over 100, but without the whale-like impact of central bank buyers, retail level purchasing doesn't move the needle.
Additionally, a color of small-time silver stackers are discouraged at the metal's lack of explosiveness and may be looking for even lower entry points. Whether silver declines back into the 20s or not, buying when the GSR is multiples of the historic ratio seems to be a total no-brainer. There's no other way to put it. The silver price has probably more to do with its industrial uses than as a monetary metal. By dousing the advance of the "green wave" and with the possibility of a global recession still on a back burner, there might be some virtue to holding off on silver presently, but, there isn't much room for error in taking such a position.
From the perspective of a long-term chart back to the bottom near the end of 2022, silver is in a channel that suggests further advances. A pullback to $29.65 might be considered a reasonable expectation, but such a move might also be the result of a protracted global recession, at which point all dollar-denominated assets will drop. At least with silver, if it's in hand, you own it, which is, after all, the main purpose from a monetary standpoint.
Judging by prices on eBay at at online retailers, there is no shortage of small denominations of both metals available, nor is there a shortage of willing buyers at record or near-record prices. As limited as the public may be in terms of market depth, most of the skepticism is lost on buyers once they begin to explore their options. Some degree of FOMO (fear of missing out) cannot be discounted either. Retail buyers in the physical space increasingly do not consider COMEX or spot values valid and are letting the market set prices, as it should be.
WEEKEND WRAP
Investing shouldn't be exciting. It should be disciplined and reasonable. What purports to be a free, open, fair market in stocks is, in reality, anything but. Stocks are ruled by algorithms, computers, big money, and headlines. The preferred place to put money at this juncture is in precious metals, that is, until the real estate market comes back to earth, which is beginning to happen in many metro markets. The global asset bubble is not fully resistant to pinpricks.
At the Close, Friday, May 9, 2025:
Dow: 41,249.38, -119.07 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 17,928.92, +0.78 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 5,659.91, -4.03 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 19,319.20, +5.02 (+0.03%)
For the Week:
Dow: -68.05, (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: -48.81 (-0.27%)
S&P 500: -26.76 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: -67.48 (-0.35%)
Dow Transports: -37.22 (-0.26%)
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