Given that people have allowed power-hungry sociopaths to make the rules, people will arm up, kill, or die in the quest for conquest. That seems to be the common cause through most of recorded history, so, here we are again.
Once the conflict in the Middle East gained traction (Thursday, June 12), markets reacted negatively on Friday, the 13th, but then rebounded the following Monday. After that, it's been a downhill grind, even with Juneteenth forcing U.S. markets to take a day off.
Bottom line, most markets are back where they began, almost as though not a single missile was fired, not a single threat made, no bombs dropped, drones exploded. It's like a dreamscape to the money masters.
That was the condition until Saturday, when the U.S. struck three suspected nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, And Esfahan in Iran with bunker-buster bombs dropped from B-2s and Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from submarines. President Trump, in a brief televised statement Saturday evening, announced the successful operations, warning Iranian leadership against any continued aggression. Markets are likely to view this action positively come Monday.
Stocks
The most consequential moves of the week just past were on the NYSE Composite (-112.71, -0.56%) and the Dow Transports (+79.24, +0.54%). Other than those minor movements, pfft! Hardly worth reporting at all.
The week ahead, in the aftermath of the U.S. strikes on Iran, should be more impactful.
Wednesday's FOMC policy decision (no change) was a bomb of another kind, an empty vessel, the Fed. It would serve the planet better if they were dissolved.
Even though the bulk of earnings season is well past, there are a few companies still reporting first quarter or fiscal quarter earnings this week:
Monday: (before open) Factset (FDS); (after close) KB Home (KBH)
Tuesday: (before open) Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL); (after close) FedEx (FDX)
Wednesday: (before open) Paychex (PAYX), Winnebago (WGO), General Mills (GIS); (after close) H.B. Fuller (FUL), Micron (MU)
Thursday: (before open) Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), McCormick (MKC); (after close) Nike (NIKE), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT).
On Monday, May Existing Home Sales will be the key data in focus, along with S&P flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June.
Fed Chairman will be before both houses of congress this week, giving his semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to the Committee on Financial Services in the House, on Tuesday, and to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in the U.S. Senate, Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, May New Home Sales.
The third (and final) estimate of first quarter GDP will be released by the BEA on Thursday along with Durable Goods Orders for May. The Personal Consumption Index (PCI) result for May is out Friday before the bell. The Fed will also be releasing the results of its annual big bank stress tests Friday.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 05/16/2025 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.37 | 4.42 | 4.30 | 4.13 |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.15 |
| 05/30/2025 | 4.33 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.11 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4.28 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.43 | 4.38 | 4.31 | 4.14 |
| 06/13/2025 | 4.23 | 4.32 | 4.48 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.09 |
| 06/20/2025 | 4.20 | 4.38 | 4.55 | 4.39 | 4.40 | 4.29 | 4.07 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 05/16/2025 | 3.98 | 3.95 | 4.06 | 4.24 | 4.43 | 4.92 | 4.89 |
| 05/23/2025 | 4.00 | 3.96 | 4.08 | 4.29 | 4.51 | 5.03 | 5.04 |
| 05/30/2025 | 3.89 | 3.87 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.41 | 4.93 | 4.92 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.13 | 4.31 | 4.51 | 4.99 | 4.97 |
| 06/13/2025 | 3.96 | 3.90 | 4.02 | 4.20 | 4.41 | 4.93 | 4.90 |
| 06/20/2025 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.96 | 4.16 | 4.38 | 4.90 | 4.89 |
Federal Reserve governors, district presidents, et. al. are among the most worthless people alive. They produce a lot of reports, charts, and white papers, make speeches, issue policies, mostly amounting to little more than excess pain imposed upon the general public. While the Bible tells us the root of all evil is the love of money, those who purport to control whatever is used as currency may not necessarily be mendacious or mercenary. More likely, they are simply misguided.
There was an FOMC meeting last week (June 17-18) which amounted to little more than idle speculation, and not much of it at that. The Federal Reserve has become so distant from market realities, its existence should be brought into question. Sadly, there aren't enough politicians to actually challenge their authority, so, as history has proven time and again, individuals will take it upon themselves to find ways out of the monetary morass.
The Fed's dot-plots suggested two rate cuts this week, and, while the EU and many other countries are stimulating their economies by lowering rates, the U.S. position remains unmoved. According to their various voices, Fed officials are waiting to see the effects of tariffs and President Trump's big, beautiful bill, the monstrosity in motion.
Oddly enough, the Fed saw fit to lower interest rates by a full percentage point late last year. Now, they are content to sit upon their tiny hands.
As shown in the table above, rates didn't move much, the largest being six basis points on two-and-five-year notes. Spreads widened further with 2s-10s at +48, up three basis points, and full spectrum at +69, matching the high from two weeks ago.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
Oil/Gas
$74.04 was the closing price of WTI crude oil in New York on Friday, after closing at $71.53 the prior week (6/13).
Israel and Iran have each attacked energy depots in the opposing country with drones and missiles. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is laughable, since all Iranian oil flows through there with China as the destination 90% of the time. Because Iran presumably would not cut off its own revenue stream, oil remains only slightly elevated instead of stupidly high. Fact of the matter is that there's still a global glut and will be until either Russia, Saudi Arabia, or the U.S. is shut off, shut down, or the regular flow somehow curtailed, which is, naturally, very, very unlikely to occur.
The oil price may take a hit lower after the U.S. strikes, or, if Iran retaliates, it could go higher, though the odds are for a calming in the market.
It didn't take long for gas prices to reflect higher oil prices, largely the result of the Israel-Iran tiff. Merchants and their corporate overlords were reluctant to lower prices when WTI crude was in the $50s, but they wasted little time hiking them as the "travel season" gets underway, just like the good old days, when ExxonMobil and Chevron were raking in excess - often described as "windfall" - profits on the back of OPEC embargoes and squeezes and presidents with the last name Bush or Clinton.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.21, up a solid nine cents from last week. $3.30-3.45 by the 4th of July is probably not out of the question, maybe even higher, depending on the narrative and extent of blowback after the U.S. assault on Iran.
The highest prices in the country remained California's, at $4.64, up three cents on the week. Mississippi is still the low spot at $2.71, though that is six cents higher than a week ago and up 12 cents over the past two weeks. Every other state in the Southeast is at $2.80 or above as of Sunday morning. Oklahoma is at $2.80, Louisiana at $2.81. Arkansas and Tennessee are both quoted at $2.84, nearly 20 cents higher than the past few weeks. Texas and Alabama are both $2.85, with South Carolina at $2.86 and Georgia and North Carolina both $2.93. Florida jumped 18 cents, from $2.90 to $3.08.
The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.38), up eighteen cents the past two weeks. All other New England and East coast states are all back above $3,00, ranging from $3.03 (New Hampshire) to $3.18 (Maryland). Prices were higher across the region.
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.43), the price even with last week. Kentucky is the lowest in the region, at $2.87, followed by Kansas and Missouri ($2.90). The remainder of the Midwest ranges from $2.95 (North Dakota) to $3.28 in Michigan.
Along with California, Washington was the only state above $4.00 for months, but is now joined by Oregon at $4.02, with Washington up eight cents to $4.43. Nevada ($3.77) was up just three cents. Arizona ($3.27), even though it was up only slightly, is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain, at $2.91. Idaho jumped nine cents to $3.35, with neighboring Utah up just three, at $3.27.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in eight fewer states this week than last, with only 17 under the line. Lower gas prices for American looks to be a fading reality, though calmer conditions in the Middle East might bring gas prices lower. It's all geo-political now.
Bitcoin
This week: $102,703.00
Last week: $105,037.50
2 weeks ago: $105,777.50
6 months ago: $95,786.72
One year ago: $64,407.00
Five years ago: $9,235.73
Bitcoin got as high as $107,602 on Tuesday, and, similarly to stocks, declined for the remainder of the week and into the weekend, dropping below $103,000 on Friday.
Various millionaire morons in the Senate overwhelmingly passed the GENIUS act after voiding any and all amendments which had been holding up a final floor vote. The bill, which supposedly will allow the increasingly worthless U.S. dollar to be used in trade as stablecoin (pegged to the paper fiat currency), now moves to the House and eventually to the President's desk, where it will allegedly be signed into law with a virtual pen.
Meanwhile, President Trump calls Fed Chairman Jerome Powell all kinds of names - including "stupid" - for not lowering interest rates, as if that actually mattered at all. With crypto, nobody needs interest rates or loans or credit. Just whip up the money out of thin air (sounds like a familiar, popular plan).
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 94.14; last week: 94.93
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/23: $3,357.70
Gold price 5/30: $3,313.10
Gold price 6/6: $3,331.00
Gold price 6/13: $3,452.60
Gold price 6/20: $3,384.40
Silver price 5/23: $33.64
Silver price 5/30: $33.08
Silver price 6/6: $36.13
Silver price 6/13: $36.37
Silver price 5/16: $35.95
Unsurprisingly, there was quite a bit of give-back on the COMEX in both gold and silver futures. Sure enough, with two proxy wars, nothing to worry about. Gold, an ancient relic. Silver, no longer a monetary metal. Just keep believing that as U.S. government debt exceeds $37 trillion. Worldwide, it's much worse. According to the usual, unreliable sources like the UN, IMF, or World Bank, total global debt - public, private, corporate - exceeded either $250 trillion or $300 trillion.
Since it's all fiat (aka FAKE, substitute currencies), does it really matter who owes how much and to whom? Probably not. Keep stacking, especially silver. Even in case the gold:silver ratio (GSR) drops to a still-unreasonable 50, silver would be $67.69, nearly double the current price. Just for kicks, at the oft-quoted historical norm of 16:1, silver would be $211.53 today. Worth considering in the current, ongoing (and getting worse) age of delusion.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median | |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 38.52 | 50.00 | 44.04 | 42.33 | |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 33.00 | 50.00 | 41.61 | 42.00 | |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,495.82 | 3,628.89 | 3,552.60 | 3,537.31 | |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,514.60 | 3,607.50 | 3,547.76 | 3,543.56 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell for a second straight week, to $42.50, a $1.64 decline from the June 15 price of $44.14 per troy ounce.
Prices in the Sunday eBay survey indicate that buying is still very brisk with premia remaining enhanced. The price of silver apparently still has significant upside ahead and the prospect of a wider war in the Middle East adds to the safe haven value of gold in particular. Buying of finished silver in small denominations above $40 and even $45 per ounce has become commonplace, while gold bars and coins have remained above $3,500.
WEEKEND WRAP
This week on Wall Street put new meaning to the phrase, nothin' doin'. As of Saturday night, that is probably about to change.
At the Close, Friday, June 20, 2025:
Dow: 42,206.82, +35.16 (+0.08%)
NASDAQ: 19,447.41, -98.86 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 5,967.84, -13.03 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 19,867.80, -33.33 (-0.17%)
For the Week:
Dow: +9.03 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: +40.58 (+0.21%)
S&P 500: -9.13 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: -112.71 (-0.56%)
Dow Transports: +79.24 (+0.54%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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