While the Fed is not expected to raise or lower the key rate, the body counts and rhetoric continue to increase in the Middle East conflict, with the United States threatening to blow up Iran's nuclear facilities with bunker buster bombs delivered by stealth bombers.
President Trump left the G7 meeting in Canada earlier than expected, allegedly to confer with advisors about the Iran-Israel conflict, which he did, Tuesday. While the President is reportedly considering entering the fray, Iran has responded, saying that U.S. bases and personnel in the region would be targeted if the U.S. military becomes involved.
The American public - whose opinion is largely disregarded - is decidedly against U.S. involvement, having elected Trump on the promise to end foreign wars and not start new ones. There are efforts in both houses of congress to prevent U.S. involvement.
Democrat senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) has introduced a resolution in the upper chamber to prevent U.S. involvement, while Vermont senator Bernie Sanders has put forward a bill - No War Against Iran Act - to require the president to seek authorization from congress. Senate majority leader John Thune has made no decision on whether or not to bring either Kaine's resolution or Sanders' bill to the floor for a vote.
In the House, Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie joined California Democrat Ro Khanna to introduce a bipartisan War Powers resolution on Tuesday meant to ensure that Congress asserts its constitutional authority to declare war under 50 U.S. Code Ch. 33. The matter of U.S. involvement remains a moving target at present.
With the kind of support Israel usually gets from the United States in terms of money, arms, and direct and indirect military assistance, there's a cohort of neocon types howling for U.S. action. On the other side of the debate, there is evidence that the American public would not support such a move, and that any action of that sort by President Trump would torpedo his presidency and cause him and the Republican party irreparable harm, especially in the 2026 midterm elections.
Meanwhile, life goes on. Stocks got whacked on Tuesday and futures are relatively flat awaiting the Fed decision and any possible moves by U.S. military.
Gold has rebounded over $3,400 Wednesday morning, while silver has managed to hold above $37/ounce after a nice jump higher Tuesday. WTI crude oil is trending over $73/barrel.
The Fed's action today will be largely meaningless, keeping the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%. The market is more keenly focused on the Middle East. There's a good likelihood that Trump will keep military options open while continuing to threaten Iran, which is in no mood to be bluffed into any kind of surrender or cessation of hostilities with Israel.
At the Close, Tuesday, June 17, 2025:
Dow: 42,215.80, -299.30 (-0.70%)
NASDAQ: 19,521.09, -180.11 (-0.91%)
S&P 500: 5,982.72, -50.39 (-0.84%)
NYSE Composite: 19,918.28, -169.72 (-0.84%)
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment