WEEKEND WRAP: Dovish Powell Sparks Massive Asset Rally; Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver, Oil All Up Sharply; Inflation Will Rise

Jerome Powell's keynote address at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium set off waves of buying Friday as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve signaled a September rate cut. After keeping the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% for eight months, Powell tap-danced through a myriad of economic assumptions and vague possibilities, eventually arriving at the conclusion that it was due time for the Federal Reserve to change interest rate policy, leaning dovishly toward lower rates, longer term.

It wasn't so much that Powell, who will be replaced in May, capitulated to demands by President Trump for lower interest rates, but more that he saw the hand-writing on the soon-to-be-glistening new walls of the Eccles Building after two Trump appointees to the Federal Reserve voted their dissent last month to keeping rates on hold.

Powell's assumption that risks to employment outweighed those to inflation is likely incorrect, given Trump's own dual mandates of deportations and tariffs are positive for employment and negative for inflation. Powell just limped through his address in order to please his actual bosses on Wall Street.

The Chairman's message implied at least a 25 basis point cut in September - possibly 50 - with more cuts in November and December. As interest rate policy goes, lowering the federal funds rate always invites asset appreciation and just as certainly as night follows day, asset appreciation foments consumer price inflation. Adding a minimum 15% boost on imports, Americans are sure to see inflation reignited with the flame-thrower of tariffs.

While Wall Street was overjoyed and politicians slobbering over their new-found gains, the average American consumer was suffering repeated bouts of sticker shock at every trip to the grocery store.

Powell may like to believe that 2.7% is close enough to the Fed's Maginot line of two percent long term inflation to rationally lower interest rates, but he will be forever despised after leaving office when inflation reaches four or five percent or higher, next year, despite what the phony CPI calculations from the fudging data-crunchers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might report.

As the soap opera of Trump tariffs, deportations, and the government investing in private companies continues, America's middle class continues to shrink, all while the naked emperor in the White House praises Wall Street's success and increased flows to the U.S. Treasury, which benefit nobody other than the spendthrifts in congress and the overblown federal bureaucracy.

For now, American consumers continue being beaten like rented mules via higher prices, a debased currency, and the propagandized mainstream media, all in the name of MAGA and the bumper-sticker rhetoric narrative that "we're number one" as the American Dream fades into the sunset of empire.

Stocks

Friday's gains were good enough to lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new record close along with the NYSE Composite and S&P 500. The NASDAQ made gains as well, but not enough to avoid a week that ended in the red, down a little more than 1/2 percent as the AI boom faced headwinds on valuation and capital expenditure concerns.

On Friday, the Advance-Decline ratio, which has consistently hovered around zero for most of the year, registered 10:1. Only the worst of the worst lost ground as even stocks that are basically bad investments gained. Everything was up, putting it mildly.

It's not that stocks are not massively overpriced, it's that Wall Street, by virtue of Powell's dovish position on interest rates, had a narrative with which it could run, luring more people into the casino to take up positions, while the insiders begin liquidating their own with considerable profits in days and weeks ahead. The one-day wonder of Friday's massive rally will be tested Monday and through the coming week to see if it has suitable legs.

With the catalyst of earnings reports coming to a close, companies of substance reporting the week ahead are the following:

Monday: (before open) Napco (NSSC); (after close) Semtech (SMTC)

Tuesday: (before open) BMO (BMO), Scotiabank (BNS); (after close) Ooma (OOMA), Box (BOX)

Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl's (KSS), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Williams-Sonoma (WSM); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ); Urban Outfitters (URBN), Five Below (FIVE)

Thursday: (before open) Dollar General (DG), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Ollie's (OLLI), CIBC (CM), TB Bank (TD); (after close) Dell (DELL), Gap Inc. (GAP), Petco (WOOF), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Marvell (MRVL), Affirm (AFRM)

Friday: (before open) Alibaba (BABA), Frontline (FRO).

Obviously, much of the focus will be on Nvidia after the close Wednesday, but retailers like Kohl's, Best Buy, Urban Outfitters, Gap, Dollar General, Dick's and others may offer better insight to tariff and inflation realities.

The economic data calendar will be brisk, beginning Monday with July New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index. Tuesday brings up July Durable Goods data, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, and the Richmond Fed. The EIA weekly report on crude and distillates appears Wednesday.

On Thursday, weekly unemployment claims are released along with the monthly PCE calculations and the second estimate of second quarter GDP. Friday's PCE Index will be closely watched after Powell's claim that inflation is either "well-anchored" or not much of an issue. The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence poll will conclude data drops for August as the final trading session Friday precedes the three-day Labor Day holiday with markets, banks, and many businesses closed Monday, September 1.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/18/2025	4.35	4.39	4.46	4.40	4.42	4.30	4.08
07/25/2025	4.37	4.46	4.46	4.42	4.42	4.31	4.09
08/01/2025	4.49	4.46	4.44	4.35	4.30	4.16	3.87
08/08/2025	4.48	4.43	4.39	4.32	4.27	4.15	3.93
08/15/2025	4.48	4.42	4.35	4.30	4.22	4.12	3.93
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/18/2025	3.88	3.84	3.96	4.18	4.44	4.99	5.00
07/25/2025	3.91	3.86	3.95	4.15	4.40	4.92	4.92
08/01/2025	3.69	3.67	3.77	3.97	4.23	4.79	4.81
08/08/2025	3.76	3.70	3.84	4.03	4.27	4.84	4.85
08/15/2025	3.75	3.73	3.85	4.07	4.33	4.91	4.92
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88

The yield curve, which has been partially inverted for the past six weeks and the better part of the past two years, is now inverted from 30-day bills out to 10-year notes, declining from 30-days out to 3-years, then reversing from thereon out to 30-year bonds with yields rising out to the longest maturities.

Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech managed to drop yields significantly. Notes of 2-year through 10-year durations dropped anywhere from seven to nine basis points. Bond vigilantes will be out in force, though recent machinations by the U.S. Treasury continues to distort the fixed income market, which is usually less than transparent and is now operational by a grab-bag of foreign investors, primary dealers, and stablecoin issuers, which are clouding the picture in unique manners.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at its highs, $63.77 in New York Friday afternoon, only because of the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. Fundamental do not support much of any price increase anywhere in the world. Up from last Friday's $62.29, all of the gain made Friday to close out the week. It is unlikely to hold at that level since the actual "hike" by the Fed won't happen until mid September. Until then, it's all speculation and supply-demand driven.

Crude has hovered between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71, currently down 17%, still seeking lower levels. It is not going back there because it is not suject to tariffs and most people, after basic necessities like rent, mortgage payments, and food, cannot afford excessive fuel purchases. Besides, after Labor Day, which is a week from Monday, summertime vacation driving tails off significantly, so demand for gasoline will be down, reducing the need for crude. It's the one bright spot in an overall dismal situation, wherein the government receives all the benefits (money) from the tariffs and consumers pay via increased prices. It is grossly unfair to the American public. It's bad policy that will ultimately result in global chaos or depression.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end, but were up a couple of cents to $3.14 on Sunday, as Gasbuddy.com reports.

State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, at $4.53 per gallon a nickel higher, with Washington a nearby second, $4.38. Other than Kentucky ($2.94) there are no states north of the 42nd parallel and east of Iowa and Missouri under $3.00. west Virginia is lowest ($3.01), with the high end dominated by populous states, Illinois ($3.39), Ohio ($3.33), Michigan ($3.29),and (Pennsylvania ($3.27).

In the Midwest, Kansas ($2.80) is the lowest, followed by Missouri and North Dakota ($2.86), Nebraska and Iowa, both $2.88.

All of the South, from North Carolina to New Mexico, is sub-$3.00, with Oklahoma the lowest in the country, at $2.63. The Sunshine State checked in at $2.90, down a whopping 16 cents from last Sunday.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 20 states, two fewer than the prior week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest.

Bitcoin

This week: $114,536.60
Last week: $118,309.30
2 weeks ago: $118,483.10
6 months ago: $92,066.20
One year ago: $64,153.97
Five years ago: $11,477.20

Crypto is nothing more than slave money for the 21st century. Repackaged fiat in flashy technology, none of it has any intrinsic value of any kind. It cannot be seen, touched, mined, melted, torn, or altered in any physical manner. Crypto, and bitcoin in particular, is fully a figment of global imagination, hoarded by whales, who own 90% or more of the vacuous creations.

It's understandable that stupid people would prefer vapor-money to physical gold and silver, though it needs to be pointed out that both of the precious metals - despite constant price suppression - have outperformed bitcoin year-to-date. Silver is up 35.29%; gold, up 29.44%; bitcoin, up 22.67%. These types are probably heavily into meme stocks, anime, and Pokemon as well.

Curiously, while bitcoin did bounce about $5,000 on Friday, launching from a five-week low of $112,061 to $117,063 within minutes of Chairman Powell's lip-flapping at Jackson Hole, but has since retreated and continues to lag precious metals. Those looking for alternatives to depreciating fiat currency might begin looking elsewhere, outside the crypto-universe.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.75; last week: 88.95

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50
Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20
Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70
Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20

Silver price 7/25: $38.33
Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Silver price 8/8: $38.51
Silver price 8/15: $38.02
Silver price 8/22: $39.39

If the Fed, the president and most of Wall Street insists on lowering interest rates, gold and silver will (should) soar. One can see the effect that the mere insinuation of lower rates did for precious metals on Friday.

Thank you, Mr. Powell.

The next levels to watch are obviously $40.00 for silver and $3,500 for gold. Since most of the Western economies are complete debt-service slaves to central banks, debasing their currencies as expeditiously as possible, the price of gold in fiat terms should be orders of magnitude higher in coming months and years. Stocks, money market funds, money in banks pale by comparison as measures of true wealth to precious metals, hard assets, and real estate.

Nothing more needs to be said. The price appreciation of precious metals since the pandemic years has outpaced all other asset classes and their durability, portability, and use as media of exchange are unparalleled. Soon enough, and already underway is fraction silver in denominations of under an ounce. eBay sellers and online dealers are hawking 1/2, 1/4, and 1/10-ounce and gram-weight silver bars and coins because it's nearing a point that the average stacker can't afford multiples of one ounce coins or bars, as already happened with gold.

One gram gold bars are now plentiful. One gram of silver is already worth more than $1 US, and that price is advancing. Countries with plentiful supplies of silver in reserve and in-ground - China, Peru, Mexico, Argentina - may soon consider issuance of silver coinage as currency, as fiat currencies begin to fail globally. It's not as far-fetched an idea as some may want to believe. Hugo Salinas Price, owner of the second largest gold mine and silver mines in the state of Durango, Mexico, has long advocated for a return to silver coinage.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	40.00	53.85	45.56	44.95
1 oz silver bar:	42.00	52.06	47.92	48.38
1 oz gold coin:	3,400.00	3,638.00	3,541.31	3,534.37
1 oz gold bar:	3,488.77	3,588.42	3,535.42	3,534.32

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly for the week, albeit to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $46.70, a gain of $0.62 from the August 17 price of $46.08 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Brace for impact! Inflation is coming back. No wonder people in Gaza are starving.

At the Close, Friday, August 22, 2025:
Dow: 45,631.74, +846.24 (+1.89%)
NASDAQ: 21,496.54, +396.22 (+1.88%)
S&P 500: 6,466.91, +96.74 (+1.52%)
NYSE Composite: 21,150.12, +331.52 (+1.59%)

For the Week:
Dow: +685.62 (+1.53%)
NASDAQ: -126.45 (-0.58%)
S&P 500: +17.11 (+0.27%)
NYSE Composite: +347.44 (+1.67%)
Dow Transports: +439.89 (+2.81%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Chairman Powell Set to Kick Off Jackson Hole Symposium; Stocks Lower for the Week; Rate Cut Expected for September

From a macro perspective, it's been a funky week as geo-politics criss-crossed with economic realities. Starting with hopes for peace in Ukraine, a botched White House meeting dashed those hopes by mid-week, as the U.S. and its European partners can't seem to understand that Russia is winning the war and thus will dictate terms of any peace agreement, not them. Last Friday's Alaska summit between Trump and Putin now appears to be a total waste of time and effort, other than Trump showing off some jets (Putin was not only not impressed, he laughed at the grandstanding).

Meanwhile, expert analysts have been poring over details of big tech AI spending, concluding, at least partially, that the half-trillion in announced expansions of data centers by the likes of Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple and others is probably a bitt too much for LLMs (Large Language Models) when the world is increasingly looking towards SLMs (Small Language Models) that could function inside robots, refrigerators, cars, drones, and apparel.

On Thursday, word that Walmart (WMT) missed their earnings expectations sent some people scrambling for the sell button, sending all indices lower, including the Dow, which had spent the prior six sessions flat-lining just below 45,000.

Naturally, those mysterious dip-buyers (NY Fed, ESF, PPT, etc.) came in just after 10:00 am ET and again in the afternoon to save the market's bacon, lifting all the majors off their lows.

Early this morning, in anticipation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to kick off the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed, stock futures plunged and then magically recovered into positive territory. The Chairman is set to take the stage at 10:00 AM ET. The theme of the 2025 conference is titled "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy."

With high expectations that Powell will offer tacit indication of a September rate cut, the move in futures is intended to give market participants some positive reinforcement, even though cutting rates with stocks near all-time highs, grocery prices rising again and killing what remains of America's middle class, and tariffs adding to inflation pressures, is probably the last thing the Fed should be considering. It's almost as if the accumulated braintrust of the government and its think tanks and policy honchos have collectively lost their minds.

With the opening bell ringing in less than half an hour, stock futures are stoked. For the week, though Thursday's close, the Dow is down 160 points; NASDAQ is off 522, and the S&P is lower by 79.

Powell's speech will be available from a variety of sources on the web and might be one of the more revealing expositions of the year, setting the policy stage for the 4th quarter and into 2026.

At the Close, Thursday, August 21, 2025:
Dow: 44,785.50, -152.81 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ: 21,100.31, -72.54 (-0.34%)
S&P 500: 6,370.17, -25.61 (-0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 20,818.60, -46.95 (-0.23%)

Dow Industrials Flat-Lined Six Straight Sessions; Wamart Miss on EPS Sending Shockwaves Through Markets

While much attention has been paid to the recent swoon in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down four of the past five sessions, losing sharply Tuesday and Wednesday, it would be easy to miss another market phenomenon occurring over the same period, that being the flat-lining of the Dow Industrials, which have closed fractionally higher and lower around a nexus at 44,922.27 for the past six sessions, actually closing at that exact price on both August 13 and August 19.

What has kept the Dow within a tight range could be any number of variables, though the most likely appears to be overhead resistance at the all-time high of 45,014.04. The index has exceeded that number on an intraday basis, but has consistently retreated from it, as if Adam Smith's "invisible hand" of market dynamics has exerted control over billions of shares of stocks represented by the index.

Perhaps the NASDAQ is a more telling manifestation of general market exhaustion, but the Dow Industrials failing to make new highs, even as the NASDAQ and S&P have crossed into fresh territory numerous times this year, is one that bears watching if only to dignify the claims of Dow Theorists that the rally off of April lows has been nothing short of a lengthy dead cat bounce into extreme valuations and that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports continue to signal a primary bearish trend from which the market cannot escape.

The Dow's recent flat-line streak may be coming to an abrupt end as of Thursday, as futures are projecting a dismal open after Walmart (WMT) released second quarter earnings prior to the bell.

Being the world's largest retailer and a Dow Component, Walmart's miss on EPS in the second quarter is sending shock waves through global markets. Walmart reported EPS of 68 cents, short of the consensus estimate of 73 cents per share. Though the company has gained market share from other competitors with consistent lower prices on a wide range of goods and has raised guidance, investors are focusing on the results and the threat of margin pressure from tariff costs.

With the opening bell due to ring in just moments, Dow futures are indicating a negative open, with Dow futures off 165 points, NASDAQ futures lower by 100, and S&P futures sliding 25 points.

While it may not yet be time to panic, there is certainly a mood change on Wall Street, especially with Jerome Powell's keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Conference scheduled for Friday morning.

The next few sessions could go a long way toward determining the overall direction of markets in the near term.

At the Close, Wednesday, August 20, 2025:
Dow: 44,938.31, +16.04 (+0.04%)
NASDAQ: 21,172.86, -142.09 (-0.67%)
S&P 500: 6,395.78, -15.59 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 20,865.55, +44.89 (+0.22%)

No Peace Deal in Ukraine, Thanks to European/American Neocons; BitBonds Emerge as Silly Solution; Target Down, Gold, Silver Up

Sorry to burst the peace bubble, but there's not going to be any kind of deal to
end the conflict in Ukraine. Not in the immediate future, anyway.

Whatever goodwill was achieved at the Alaska Summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, August 15, was squandered just a few days later by the completely botched multi-lateral meeting at the White House between Trump, Ukraine's illegitimate leader, Zelensky, and the midget politicians of Europe - Macron, Starmer, Meloni, and the grand lady of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, among others.

While President Trump managed to get a call through to Putin while Zelensky and his "team" were still in the White House, signaling that Putin was ready to talk one-on-one with Zelensky, the participants then blundered into discussions about security guarantee arrangements for post-war Ukraine, including the ludicrous notion that Ukraine would purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the U.S., financed by Europe, and the final, fatal kicker, that the U.S. would provide air support.

To think that Russia would agree to have the very nations that started the war, and continue to fund the war, provide ongoing security in the form of re-arming Ukraine with U.S. jets hovering in the background is the absolute clown-world-approved height of folly.

Maybe that was the intention all along. Ukraine doesn't want the war to end, nor does Europe, nor does the military-industrial-complex (MIC), which apparently has not just Trump's ear, but his whole face, foot planted firmly in his all-too-often wide open mouth.

These people - the Europeans and President Trump - lack class, diplomatic skills, but above all, common sense. If they don't plunge the world into further conflict and World War III, they'll be lucky to escape the wrath of their own citizens, something about which Trump has no concerns, since he's a lame duck president who cannot run again. If there's a God, or Karma, or aliens watching over planet Earth, the European leaders will lose any upcoming elections (maybe not Italy's Meloni, who appeared to be somewhere between mildly amused and wickedly perturbed during the White House affair), resign, or be forced out by their own legislators.

They don't deserve to lead anything greater than a half-hour field trip, let alone some of the major countries of Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a true diplomat, has, according to mainstream sources, Yahoo! and Politico, not ruled out a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but has indicated that proper protocol be observed in a step-by-step manner, detailing each party's objectives, before such a face-to-face encounter should occur.

As usual, the Russians are being circumspect and cautious. They've been fooled too many times by the West and, apparently, won't be fooled again.

Naturally, the media spin on this will be along the lines of "Russia doesn't want peace," and "Russia played us," and "they're buying time," as Russian forces continue to steamroll through Ukrainian territory as Ukraine's military is on the verge of collapse, quickly running out of weapons and trained soldiers to operate them.

Russia is winning the war on the ground and has no good reason to seek peace other than on terms they dictate, not the half-baked, completely unacceptable proposals being trotted out by Trump and company. Thus, the war rages on and President Trump can do nothing to stop it other than whine because he refuses to take his foot out of his mouth and stomp it down on the neocon coalition of European leaders and in his own congressional delegation. Excuse the French, but "sacre bleu, what a bunch of morons."

The bottom line, so to speak, is that the U.S. government is broke, Europe penniless, each saddled with leadership that struggles to grasp even simple concepts like waging war on Russia's doorstep, with foreign (Ukrainian) troops using weapons they don't have and cannot afford is a losing battle.

Highlighting the desperation from the funding perspective, the idea of bitcoin-backed bonds has entered the conversation. "Bitbonds" have been touted as a potential solution to the federal government's fiscal cliff, wherein the U.S. Treasury needs to roll over $9 trillion in obligations over the next year. From a
Forbes article from April of this year, quoting a white paper by Andrew Hohns and Matthew Pines:

“If 132 million American households each invested $3,025,” the authors estimate, “20% of the $2 trillion BitBond issuance could be absorbed by domestic retail investors.”

The implications of this would be laughable, if not so dangerous, beginning with the idea that every household in America (there are 132 million according to the Federal Reserve) has $3,025 to invest. The vast majority of households in America don't even have $500 in savings for emergencies.

There are other, even more frightening conditions involving "Bitbonds", not limited to the initial coupon being one percent (1.00%), or the unthinkable prospect (in the authors' minds) that bitcoin could lose value. There's more. Readers are advised to peruse the article themselves, armed with ample whiskey or other adult beverage to ease the anger or trepidation that may arise. This is the kind of thinking being done at the highest levels of the federal government. The American people are absolutely doomed.

Moving on to matters of markets, it's worth noting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has flat-lined for the past four sessions, closing Tuesday, August 19, at exactly the same level - 44,922.27 - as it did on Wednesday, August 13. That kind of finagling, takes real talent. At issue is the all-time high of 45,014.04 from December 4, 2024. It appears the stock market is in need of a dose of Viagra or some other stimulant to get, um, "up." It's just not happening.

Overnight, Toll Brothers (TOL) and Lazyboy (LZB) released second quarter earnings, and into Wednesday morning, prior to the open, Estee Lauder (EL), TJX Holdings (TJX), Lowe's (LOW), and Target (TGT) announced.

Briefly:

• Toll Brothers (TOL) beat top and bottom line, stock trading down 1.6% pre-market.
• Lazyboy (LZB) snoozed through the quarter, missing on EPS and revenue. Shares are down more than 20% prior to the opening bell.
• Estee Lauder (EL) is taking a powder, with sales down for the quarter and guidance whining about tariff costs. Investors aren't putting lipstick on this piggie. Shares are down eight to nine percent.
• Discount retailer TJX Holdings (TJX) bucked the overall retail trend, beating estimates and raising guidance. The stock is up more than four percent.
• Lowe's (LOW) stock is ahead by three percent after same-store sales return to growth and the company raised its 2025 forecast.

Finally, Target (TGT), poster boy or girl (prefers "we", "they") for the limp brick-and-mortar retail sector, is falling again, down 10 percent in pre-market trading after beating lowered estimates. The company earned $2.05 per share, as opposed to $2.57 in the same period a year ago. Just about every metric was down, including same-store sales, off by -3.2%, and that's not inflation-adjusted. While the blame for poor performance ultimately lands at management's feet, the effect of higher prices because of tariffs cannot be excluded. Consumers, especially when they're being tapped out, will seek lower prices elsewhere or curtail spending to varying degrees.

Retaliating against non-woke naysayers of the company's imminent demise, Target plans to replace its current CEO, Brian Cornell, with current CFO Michael Fiddelke, a former intern. So, take that, MAGA-tards. Pride month is just 10 months away... oh!

Pre-market reaction to early headlines, sub-plots, and various social media posts has been muted, though they are at much higher levels than earlier. As the opening bell approaches Dow futures are down 22 points, NASDAQ futures off 60, with S&P futures down around 10 points.

Gold is bid, up more than $25, at $3,383.40. Silver is up as well, popping over $38 per ounce. WTI crude oil continues to flirt with the 50s, bottoming out at $61.68 per barrel overnight before rallying somewhat back above $62, for now. The national average for a gallon of gasoline at U.S. pumps has been stuck at $3.12 for three weeks.

America is so screwed. Our politicians are all sociopathic liars and crooks, Wall Street is a rigged casino, share prices of public companies have been boosted to unprecedented levels, and the economy is at stall speed. The silver lining, from the twisted Wall Street perspective shared by President Trump, is that a recession might cause the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds target rate by a quarter or half percent in September and signal more cuts, which obviously would FIX EVERYTHING, though most people seem to be on pins and needles in anticipation of Jerome Powell's keynote at Friday's Jackson Hole conference.

Bad news may be good, but having your chocolate ration increased from 30 grams to 20 grams is shrink-flation on steroids.

--- John Maynard Keynes and George Orwell have entered the chat. ---

At the Close, Tuesday, August 19, 2025:
Dow: 44,922.27, +10.45 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 21,314.95, -314.82 (-1.46%)
S&P 500: 6,411.37, -37.78 (-0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 20,820.66, +4.42 (+0.02%)

Middle Class and Small Business Being Destroyed by Tariffs, Inflation, Monopolies, Government Corruption, Theft, and Incompetence

Similar to Friday's trading, there wasn't much in the way of volatility Monday, as President Trump welcomed Ukraine's Zelensky and a delegation of European leaders to the White House.

Stocks seem to be a background issue to world events at this juncture. With the meeting of Trump and EU leaders concluded, somewhat successfully, without much in the way of details, the waiting game will continue until there's some concrete agreement. Next up is a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, then, Zelensky, Putin, Trump, and the EU. Some day, maybe, they'll figure out that poking the Bear (Russia) wasn't a good idea.

Meantime, Home Depot (HD) posted adjusted EPS of $4.68, missing analyst estimates by six cents. Despite the miss, the home improvement retailer's earnings were slightly better than the same period a year ago, when EPS was reported as $4.60 per share.

With a share price of 394.70 as of Monday's close and trailing earnings of $14.93, Home Depot is trading at a multiple of 26.44, a premium level for a mature company. The stock peaked at 431 on December 6, 2024, just after the Dow - of which Home Depot is a component - made an all-time high of 45,014.04 on December 4. Both the Dow and HD have failed to mark new records even though the NASDAQ and S&P have powered to multiple new highs this year.

This kind of valuation is what usually leads to market crashes, but, in today's environment, the duopoly of Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot, which dominates the market with a combined market share exceeding 60%, is allowed to continue while the middle class and small businesses suffer.

According to the new rules, the middle class must just accept whatever the government decrees. As such, democracy and capitalism are dead. It's only insider trading and big money keeping stocks at elevated levels. It shouldn't have been allowed to go on for this long, but it's likely to continue until it all blows up.

At the same time, Americans are forced to accept higher prices for imported goods, the U.S. Treasury collecting duties on everything and then wasting the money on all manner of warfare and welfare.

MAGA all you like. There are no breaks for Americans.

At the Close, Monday, August 18, 2025:
Dow: 44,911.82, -34.30 (-0.08%)
NASDAQ: 21,629.77, +6.80 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,449.15, -0.65 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 20,816.24, +13.56 (+0.07%)