It wasn't so much that Powell, who will be replaced in May, capitulated to demands by President Trump for lower interest rates, but more that he saw the hand-writing on the soon-to-be-glistening new walls of the Eccles Building after two Trump appointees to the Federal Reserve voted their dissent last month to keeping rates on hold.
Powell's assumption that risks to employment outweighed those to inflation is likely incorrect, given Trump's own dual mandates of deportations and tariffs are positive for employment and negative for inflation. Powell just limped through his address in order to please his actual bosses on Wall Street.
The Chairman's message implied at least a 25 basis point cut in September - possibly 50 - with more cuts in November and December. As interest rate policy goes, lowering the federal funds rate always invites asset appreciation and just as certainly as night follows day, asset appreciation foments consumer price inflation. Adding a minimum 15% boost on imports, Americans are sure to see inflation reignited with the flame-thrower of tariffs.
While Wall Street was overjoyed and politicians slobbering over their new-found gains, the average American consumer was suffering repeated bouts of sticker shock at every trip to the grocery store.
Powell may like to believe that 2.7% is close enough to the Fed's Maginot line of two percent long term inflation to rationally lower interest rates, but he will be forever despised after leaving office when inflation reaches four or five percent or higher, next year, despite what the phony CPI calculations from the fudging data-crunchers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might report.
As the soap opera of Trump tariffs, deportations, and the government investing in private companies continues, America's middle class continues to shrink, all while the naked emperor in the White House praises Wall Street's success and increased flows to the U.S. Treasury, which benefit nobody other than the spendthrifts in congress and the overblown federal bureaucracy.
For now, American consumers continue being beaten like rented mules via higher prices, a debased currency, and the propagandized mainstream media, all in the name of MAGA and the bumper-sticker rhetoric narrative that "we're number one" as the American Dream fades into the sunset of empire.
Stocks
Friday's gains were good enough to lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new record close along with the NYSE Composite and S&P 500. The NASDAQ made gains as well, but not enough to avoid a week that ended in the red, down a little more than 1/2 percent as the AI boom faced headwinds on valuation and capital expenditure concerns.
On Friday, the Advance-Decline ratio, which has consistently hovered around zero for most of the year, registered 10:1. Only the worst of the worst lost ground as even stocks that are basically bad investments gained. Everything was up, putting it mildly.
It's not that stocks are not massively overpriced, it's that Wall Street, by virtue of Powell's dovish position on interest rates, had a narrative with which it could run, luring more people into the casino to take up positions, while the insiders begin liquidating their own with considerable profits in days and weeks ahead. The one-day wonder of Friday's massive rally will be tested Monday and through the coming week to see if it has suitable legs.
With the catalyst of earnings reports coming to a close, companies of substance reporting the week ahead are the following:
Monday: (before open) Napco (NSSC); (after close) Semtech (SMTC)
Tuesday: (before open) BMO (BMO), Scotiabank (BNS); (after close) Ooma (OOMA), Box (BOX)
Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl's (KSS), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Williams-Sonoma (WSM); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ); Urban Outfitters (URBN), Five Below (FIVE)
Thursday: (before open) Dollar General (DG), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Ollie's (OLLI), CIBC (CM), TB Bank (TD); (after close) Dell (DELL), Gap Inc. (GAP), Petco (WOOF), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Marvell (MRVL), Affirm (AFRM)
Friday: (before open) Alibaba (BABA), Frontline (FRO).
Obviously, much of the focus will be on Nvidia after the close Wednesday, but retailers like Kohl's, Best Buy, Urban Outfitters, Gap, Dollar General, Dick's and others may offer better insight to tariff and inflation realities.
The economic data calendar will be brisk, beginning Monday with July New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index. Tuesday brings up July Durable Goods data, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, and the Richmond Fed. The EIA weekly report on crude and distillates appears Wednesday.
On Thursday, weekly unemployment claims are released along with the monthly PCE calculations and the second estimate of second quarter GDP. Friday's PCE Index will be closely watched after Powell's claim that inflation is either "well-anchored" or not much of an issue. The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence poll will conclude data drops for August as the final trading session Friday precedes the three-day Labor Day holiday with markets, banks, and many businesses closed Monday, September 1.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 07/18/2025 | 4.35 | 4.39 | 4.46 | 4.40 | 4.42 | 4.30 | 4.08 |
| 07/25/2025 | 4.37 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.09 |
| 08/01/2025 | 4.49 | 4.46 | 4.44 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.16 | 3.87 |
| 08/08/2025 | 4.48 | 4.43 | 4.39 | 4.32 | 4.27 | 4.15 | 3.93 |
| 08/15/2025 | 4.48 | 4.42 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.22 | 4.12 | 3.93 |
| 08/22/2025 | 4.47 | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.27 | 4.21 | 4.08 | 3.87 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 07/18/2025 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.96 | 4.18 | 4.44 | 4.99 | 5.00 |
| 07/25/2025 | 3.91 | 3.86 | 3.95 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 4.92 | 4.92 |
| 08/01/2025 | 3.69 | 3.67 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 4.23 | 4.79 | 4.81 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3.76 | 3.70 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 4.27 | 4.84 | 4.85 |
| 08/15/2025 | 3.75 | 3.73 | 3.85 | 4.07 | 4.33 | 4.91 | 4.92 |
| 08/22/2025 | 3.68 | 3.64 | 3.76 | 3.98 | 4.26 | 4.84 | 4.88 |
The yield curve, which has been partially inverted for the past six weeks and the better part of the past two years, is now inverted from 30-day bills out to 10-year notes, declining from 30-days out to 3-years, then reversing from thereon out to 30-year bonds with yields rising out to the longest maturities.
Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech managed to drop yields significantly. Notes of 2-year through 10-year durations dropped anywhere from seven to nine basis points. Bond vigilantes will be out in force, though recent machinations by the U.S. Treasury continues to distort the fixed income market, which is usually less than transparent and is now operational by a grab-bag of foreign investors, primary dealers, and stablecoin issuers, which are clouding the picture in unique manners.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week at its highs, $63.77 in New York Friday afternoon, only because of the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. Fundamental do not support much of any price increase anywhere in the world. Up from last Friday's $62.29, all of the gain made Friday to close out the week. It is unlikely to hold at that level since the actual "hike" by the Fed won't happen until mid September. Until then, it's all speculation and supply-demand driven.
Crude has hovered between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71, currently down 17%, still seeking lower levels. It is not going back there because it is not suject to tariffs and most people, after basic necessities like rent, mortgage payments, and food, cannot afford excessive fuel purchases. Besides, after Labor Day, which is a week from Monday, summertime vacation driving tails off significantly, so demand for gasoline will be down, reducing the need for crude. It's the one bright spot in an overall dismal situation, wherein the government receives all the benefits (money) from the tariffs and consumers pay via increased prices. It is grossly unfair to the American public. It's bad policy that will ultimately result in global chaos or depression.
Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end, but were up a couple of cents to $3.14 on Sunday, as Gasbuddy.com reports.
State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, at $4.53 per gallon a nickel higher, with Washington a nearby second, $4.38. Other than Kentucky ($2.94) there are no states north of the 42nd parallel and east of Iowa and Missouri under $3.00. west Virginia is lowest ($3.01), with the high end dominated by populous states, Illinois ($3.39), Ohio ($3.33), Michigan ($3.29),and (Pennsylvania ($3.27).
In the Midwest, Kansas ($2.80) is the lowest, followed by Missouri and North Dakota ($2.86), Nebraska and Iowa, both $2.88.
All of the South, from North Carolina to New Mexico, is sub-$3.00, with Oklahoma the lowest in the country, at $2.63. The Sunshine State checked in at $2.90, down a whopping 16 cents from last Sunday.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 20 states, two fewer than the prior week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest.
Bitcoin
This week: $114,536.60
Last week: $118,309.30
2 weeks ago: $118,483.10
6 months ago: $92,066.20
One year ago: $64,153.97
Five years ago: $11,477.20
Crypto is nothing more than slave money for the 21st century. Repackaged fiat in flashy technology, none of it has any intrinsic value of any kind. It cannot be seen, touched, mined, melted, torn, or altered in any physical manner. Crypto, and bitcoin in particular, is fully a figment of global imagination, hoarded by whales, who own 90% or more of the vacuous creations.
It's understandable that stupid people would prefer vapor-money to physical gold and silver, though it needs to be pointed out that both of the precious metals - despite constant price suppression - have outperformed bitcoin year-to-date. Silver is up 35.29%; gold, up 29.44%; bitcoin, up 22.67%. These types are probably heavily into meme stocks, anime, and Pokemon as well.
Curiously, while bitcoin did bounce about $5,000 on Friday, launching from a five-week low of $112,061 to $117,063 within minutes of Chairman Powell's lip-flapping at Jackson Hole, but has since retreated and continues to lag precious metals. Those looking for alternatives to depreciating fiat currency might begin looking elsewhere, outside the crypto-universe.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.75; last week: 88.95
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 7/25: $3,338.50
Gold price 8/1: $3,416.00
Gold price 8/8: $3,458.20
Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70
Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20
Silver price 7/25: $38.33
Silver price 8/1: $37.10
Silver price 8/8: $38.51
Silver price 8/15: $38.02
Silver price 8/22: $39.39
If the Fed, the president and most of Wall Street insists on lowering interest rates, gold and silver will (should) soar. One can see the effect that the mere insinuation of lower rates did for precious metals on Friday.
Thank you, Mr. Powell.
The next levels to watch are obviously $40.00 for silver and $3,500 for gold. Since most of the Western economies are complete debt-service slaves to central banks, debasing their currencies as expeditiously as possible, the price of gold in fiat terms should be orders of magnitude higher in coming months and years. Stocks, money market funds, money in banks pale by comparison as measures of true wealth to precious metals, hard assets, and real estate.
Nothing more needs to be said. The price appreciation of precious metals since the pandemic years has outpaced all other asset classes and their durability, portability, and use as media of exchange are unparalleled. Soon enough, and already underway is fraction silver in denominations of under an ounce. eBay sellers and online dealers are hawking 1/2, 1/4, and 1/10-ounce and gram-weight silver bars and coins because it's nearing a point that the average stacker can't afford multiples of one ounce coins or bars, as already happened with gold.
One gram gold bars are now plentiful. One gram of silver is already worth more than $1 US, and that price is advancing. Countries with plentiful supplies of silver in reserve and in-ground - China, Peru, Mexico, Argentina - may soon consider issuance of silver coinage as currency, as fiat currencies begin to fail globally. It's not as far-fetched an idea as some may want to believe. Hugo Salinas Price, owner of the second largest gold mine and silver mines in the state of Durango, Mexico, has long advocated for a return to silver coinage.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 40.00 | 53.85 | 45.56 | 44.95 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 42.00 | 52.06 | 47.92 | 48.38 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,400.00 | 3,638.00 | 3,541.31 | 3,534.37 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,488.77 | 3,588.42 | 3,535.42 | 3,534.32 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly for the week, albeit to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $46.70, a gain of $0.62 from the August 17 price of $46.08 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Brace for impact! Inflation is coming back. No wonder people in Gaza are starving.
At the Close, Friday, August 22, 2025:
Dow: 45,631.74, +846.24 (+1.89%)
NASDAQ: 21,496.54, +396.22 (+1.88%)
S&P 500: 6,466.91, +96.74 (+1.52%)
NYSE Composite: 21,150.12, +331.52 (+1.59%)
For the Week:
Dow: +685.62 (+1.53%)
NASDAQ: -126.45 (-0.58%)
S&P 500: +17.11 (+0.27%)
NYSE Composite: +347.44 (+1.67%)
Dow Transports: +439.89 (+2.81%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment