Gold and Silver Are Sending a Message to the Market

Let's talk about gambling instead of stocks today.

Have you ever lost a couple hundred dollars at a race track or blown a wad of cash betting sports over a weekend or dropped a grand or two in Las Vegas, or, worse yet, playing online poker or other games?

If you haven't, you might want to consider buying some gold or silver, and doing it soon, if not right now.

The reason is that losing money at the track or online or even in Vegas, baby! is gone. Gone. Forever. You may believe that you can win it back, but the reality is that you have to put up more of your own capital to do so. It's a trap most compulsive gamblers fall into without even knowing it. You never win it back. The odds are stacked against you. The best you can hope for is to lose a little less.

So, there's gold and silver. Easy to buy, relatively safe to have shipped by the U.S. Postal Service or purchased from a local dealer, and quite simple to store at home in a safe place. The great thing about precious metals is that they never lose, or, to put it more succinctly, you can never lose them (unless, as the joke goes, you have a tragic boating accident and your bullion has found its way to the bottom of a lake or ocean).

The price of gold or silver can go down, but, that's not been the case lately, and, even if the price does go down, a quick check of your socks drawer will reveal the truth about precious metals: they're still there.

Gold, which continues to set all-time highs against the dollar and every other fiat currency day after day, this morning hit $3,828.20 on the COMEX. Silver hit $44.72. A month ago, they were $3,417.50 and $39.21, respectively. They've gained 11.7% and 13.7%, with silver the big winner. Year-to-date, gold is up 44%; silver 52%. If you bought either at the end of last year or early in January of 2025, you're ahead enormously.

Long-time stackers who were buying gold at $700, $1100, or even $1800, and silver at $7, $14, or $21, are sitting literally on a pile of gold (or silver).

The kicker is that it's still not too late. Measured against the U.S. dollar or any other fiat currency - which is all of them - they continue to rise. Stocks keep going up as well, but those digits you see on your computer screen, be they five, six or even eight figures large, are subject to change, and those are changes over which you have absolutely no control.

The gold and silver in your closet, or at-home safe is never going to change. They're always going to be worth something and they will always and forever be bars, rounds, or coins of set weights, be those grams, ounces, or, if you're one of the lucky ones, pounds.

The chance that gold or silver will be worth less in a day, a week, a month, a year, or beyond is very slim. The precious metals, including palladium and platinum, continue to reflect the realities of modern government finances, which are, today, deeply indebted, losing value (inflation), and likely to be replaced by something other than dollars, yen, euros, francs, lira, yuan, rupees, etc. Something more solid.

They'll be replaced by gold and silver will be along for the ride.

That's the message precious metals are sending to the markets. Are you listening?

As the gambling horde of investors, speculators, and shiftless managers readies for another day of paper-chasing, stock futures are flat, with only the Dow futures up around 50 points.

Gold and silver are already up more than one percent each.

At the Close, Monday, September 22, 2025:
Dow: 46,381.54, +66.27 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 22,788.98, +157.50 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: 6,693.75, +29.39 (+0.44%)
NYSE Composite: 21,542.47, +48.51 (+0.23%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Gold, Silver, Stocks Rising after Fed Rate Cut; Oil, Gas About to Fall Out of Bed; There Won't Be a Government Shutdown; Fall Begins Monday

Break out the apple cider and pumpkin-spiced lattes. The autumn equinox of will occur at 2:19 pm ET on Monday, September 22.

Tomorrow, in most books.

The one constant in this world is change, but whether the U.S. economy sees any is debatable. It's more likely that the U.S. and its vassal states in Europe will simply carry on with their fraudulent narrative of winning in Ukraine, Gaza is not genocide, congress works for the good of the people, and the rest of the useless claptrap promoted by the mainstream media.

At least the unfunny Jimmy Kimmel is gone. Not really a bargain exchange for Charlie Kirk, but the conservatives will take it as a win. Maybe the networks will come to the realization that people don't want to be fed a constant stream of political "gotchas" night after night, the overriding theme being conservatives are bad, Orange Man Bad, Russia bad.

The U.S. government faces a possible partial shutdown on October 1, should the congress not rush yet another continuing resolution to the president's desk before the end of the fiscal year. It's not like the country is going broke - it already is - because the Treasury can just keep borrowing, even if there are no buyers for its debt. The Federal Reserve will buy it at any price. The usual charade of "crisis" Washington isn't even being promoted this year. The Dems and Reps will just get together, as they always do, and pass some bill loaded with excess spending, earmarks and pork to keep the lights on until November 22 or thereabout. It's nonsense, like just about everything else coming out of the nation's capital is.

Otherwise, it's business as usual as September winds down.

Stocks

Stocks gained as the week progressed, in line with the FOMC cutting the federal funds rate by 0.25%, to 4.00-4.25%. Ho-hum. It's not like what banks charge each other overnight to balance their books is going to have any kind of impact other than on Wall Street. Imagine the interest rates on credit cards dropping 0.25%, from 23.50% to 23.25%. Whoop-de-doo! People aren't going to rush out and spend more just because their monthly payment drops a couple of dimes.

For the Week:
Dow: +481.05 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: +490.38 (+2.21%)
S&P 500: +80.17 (+1.12%)
NYSE Composite: +119.65 (+0.56%)
Dow Transports: -17.47 (-0.11%)

As expected, the Dow Transports were tilted to the downside, however slightly. The Transportation Average has still not confirmed all the new highs on the other indices. A top will be put in soon, though not right away. The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed the week at 39.95. It's headed past 45, so figure on another 500 points on the S&P before the bubble begins to deflate. All of a sudden, liquidity will dry up and stocks will take a dive. It's a slow process.

Proceed accordingly.

The week ahead offers little in the way of indicators concerning the state of the U.S. economy, the most salient releases coming on Wednesday, with Building Permits and New Home Sales and the EIA weekly report on oil and gas supplies. Thursday will be the most impactful, with the final estimate of 2nd quarter GDP, monthly PCE, weekly jobless claims, August durable goods, and existing home sales.

On Friday, the PCE Index comes out, which may serve as some indication of current and forecast inflation, and the University of Michigan consumer survey. Thus, most of the focus will be toward the end of the week. Expect Monday and Tuesday to be fairly boringm more of the same, with maybe some action later in the week. The possibility of a government shutdown will be downplayed and might rear up the following week. Otherwise, figure on stocks continuing to blip higher.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/15/2025	4.48	4.42	4.35	4.30	4.22	4.12	3.93
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87
08/29/2025	4.41	4.34	4.30	4.23	4.17	4.01	3.83
09/05/2025	4.29	4.24	4.24	4.07	4.05	3.85	3.65
09/12/2025	4.24	4.24	4.20	4.08	4.02	3.83	3.66
09/19/2025	4.19	4.16	4.14	4.03	3.98	3.81	3.60

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/15/2025	3.75	3.73	3.85	4.07	4.33	4.91	4.92
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88
08/29/2025	3.59	3.58	3.68	3.92	4.23	4.86	4.92
09/05/2025	3.51	3.48	3.59	3.80	4.10	4.72	4.78
09/12/2025	3.56	3.52	3.63	3.81	4.06	4.65	4.68
09/19/2025	3.57	3.56	3.68	3.88	4.14	4.71	4.75

With the FOMC cutting the federal funds target rate down to 4.00-4.25%, short term yields fell, as yields on longer-dated maturities rose as the yield curve begins to unclench. There is the possibility of normalizing the Treasury yield curve at some point, possibly upon further rate cuts. The Fed will be pushed kicking and screaming into cutting the interest rate again at least one more time this year - probably twice, in November and December, and probably down another 50 basis points before Chairman Powell's term ends in May.

The total of one percent lopped off the federal funds rate will be a boost to the moribund economy. When a new Chairman is appointed by Trump, interest rates will be pushed down even lower, ushering in another massive round of inflation. 2026 is shaping up to be exciting with regard to economies and currencies. By mid-year, one-month bills could be as low as 3.00% and the 30-year bond upwards of 5.25%.

Spreads, post the rate cut were active, with 2s-10s remaining high at +57, while full spectrum galloped 16 basis points higher to +56. Banks, if they can remain solvent, should react positively to wider, deeper spreads. Short-term money is becoming cheaper. Every known shady operator is looking to hawk debt. It's like candy. Tastes good, but rots your insides.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $62.36, up slightly from last week's Friday New York close of $62.11. It's not going anywhere, but maybe down, short term, because there's too much oil and not enough demand. The U.S. is pumping at near-record levels, the Saudi's and OPEC have raised their production quotas and Russia's just happy selling theirs to China and India, the latter reselling some of it to Europe.

RBOB, which is the wholesale price of gasoline, or petrol, has been rangebound between $1.90 and $2.32 per gallon for a year. It closed Friday at $1.91. If it should continue to fall below that baseline, prices at the pump could see a return to widespread sub-$3 gas across America, except the West coast, primarily due to taxes and over-regulation.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and are two cents higher this Sunday morning, the national average is $3.17, according to Gasbuddy.com.

State-by-state numbers show California remaining on top, at $4.66 per gallon, followed closely by Washington ($4.62) and joined in the $4 club by Oregon ($4.23). The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.64) adging out Mississippi ($2.68).

The Northeast and Midwest, out to Michigan and Illinois, remain above $3.00, with neighbors Ohio and Indiana each at $3.04. Virginia ($2.99), West Virginia ($2.98) and Kentucky begin an ark that extends through Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, to the Dakotas, and Wisconsin of sub-$3 states, with Minnesota ($3.05) the lone exception. Illinois is at $3.37, and Michigan at $3.14. The lowest in the Northeast is Vermont ($3.05); the highest, Pennsylvania ($3.33). All the rest, from Maine to Maryland, are somewhere in between.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 21 states, down one from last week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest. The entire Southeast, with the exception of Florida ($3.10) is under $3.00 a gallon.

Bitcoin

This week: $115,734.60
Last week: $115,368.20
2 weeks ago: $111,129.79
6 months ago: $84,354.25
One year ago: $64,450.64
Five years ago: $11,301.01

The Ponzi has stalled. Bitcoin is down 7.2% since the mid-August high of 123,332. Over the same period, gold is up 12% and silver has made a gain of 15%. There's either going to be a concerted effort by the whale-holders of bitcoin to get the price higher, or the scheme is going to begin to collapse. There may be a sucker born every minute, but after a while, every scam is exposed and after 16 years of bitcoin and crypto nonsense, recently exacerbated by high-profile people pushing crypto and losing, this one is getting a bit (pun intended) long in the ledger.

Face it, you diamond-handed YOLO hodlers, bitcoin and crypto is simply crap, a make-believe fantasy constructed by the same people luring people into digital dollars, stablecoins and programmable CBDCs. It's not going to work, even though in the interim, some investors, like President Trump's sons, Don Jr. and Eric, who have been spearheading various schemes, will make loads of money, invest it elsewhere or lose most of it.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 85.76; last week: 86.24

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20
Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80
Gold price 9/12: $3,680.70
Gold price 9/19: $3,719.40

Silver price 8/22: $39.39
Silver price 8/29: $40.75
Silver price 9/5: $41.51
Silver price 9/12: $42.68
Silver price 9/19: $43.37

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	44.00	51.41	47.11	46.96
1 oz silver bar:	45.95	55.39	50.76	50.50
1 oz gold coin:	3,802.84	3,944.06	3,855.91	3,845.83
1 oz gold bar:	3,800.57	3,938.21	3,858.60	3,855.46

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) remained rose to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $48.83, a gain of 68 cents from the September 14 price of $48.15 per troy ounce.

Gold and silver continued to move higher, with silver leading the way over the near term. Year-to-date, gold is up 40.32%; silver, 46.89%.

Say goodbye to the COMEX and the London price fix. While they'll continue to operate, those old school pricing mechanisms are being gradually overtaken by honest price-setters with settlements in physical metal in Shanghai and soon, St. Petersburg and Dubai, as the West gives away authority to BRICS-related entities. Gold is already at record-high prices everywhere in the world. Silver will break through $50 an ounce soon enough, quite possibly by the end of the year. If silver reaches $50 before January 1, 2026, there's every possibility for $60 over the next year, as that would amount to a mere 20% gain.

WEEKEND WRAP

The West is broken. The East is rising. Act accordingly.

At the Close, Friday, September 19, 2025:
Dow: 46,315.27, +172.85 (+0.37%)
NASDAQ: 22,631.48, +160.75 (+0.72%)
S&P 500: 6,664.36, +32.40 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: 21,493.97, -10.38 (-0.05%)

For the Week:
Dow: +481.05 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: +490.38 (+2.21%)
S&P 500: +80.17 (+1.12%)
NYSE Composite: +119.65 (+0.56%)
Dow Transports: -17.47 (-0.11%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Continue Making All-Time Highs as Congress Ponders Shutdown or Stop-gap Funding On September 30

The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed Thursday at 39.86, the second-highest level ever, as stocks march to new all-time highs on a near-daily basis.

A day after the Fed lowered the federal funds target rate to 4.00-4.25%, stocks flew higher, if only to solidify the narrative that they are the only game in town, that any wealth creation during these tumultuous times will be achieved by buying and holding U.S. stocks. This was surprising to absolutely nobody.

With Friday's opening bell approaching, stocks are once gain poised to finish the week on the positive side of the ledger. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 308 points, the NASDAQ has put on 329 points, the S&P 500 is ahead by 47, and the NYSE Composite Index is up 130. These are all at all-time highs.

Exclusively to Dow Theorists, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is up just 14 points on the week and is nowehere near a record high. In fact, since the start of September, the Trannies have been trading between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, with the notable feature of a death cross in late August and the 200-day average in a declining posture. Why this is important in terms of Dow Theory, is because it signals a non-confirmation of the primary trend.

While the Dow Industrials certainly have achieved escape velocity, reversing the bearing trend to bullish upon making new highs last month, the Transports have failed to do so. The Transportation Average must confirm the primary trend reversal of the Industrials. Otherwise it is a false flag, so to speak, indicating that the bearish trend that originated in December of 2024 is unanchored by market fundamentals.

While Dow Theory is considered old school and inapplicable to modern markets, it does bear notice if only because the companies that move people, goods, and energy are showing signs of weakness. If things don't move, things don't sell. Critics will propound on the notion that the global economy is more tech-based, and, to a large degree, that is true. However, tech still relies on energy, and energy is required for the production of food, otherwise known as human energy. Nothing stands alone in the globally-connected economy. That's why low oil prices are constitute a warning to the bulls. While cheap oil is a boon to manufacturing and production, a consistent low price also indicates a lack of demand, translating into a stagnant economic environment, which is something that was on the Fed's agenda when they decided to cut interest rates on Wednesday.

Just because stocks are going up doesn't automatically mean the underlying economy is strong. Often, Wall Street veers far from general economic trends as stock trading is an emotional experience, operating under the guise of momentum, greed, fear, and, occasional price rigging (OK, price rigging, or manipulation, may be more than just occasional, but that might sound too conspiratorial).

There are more waring shots to those with a more cautious approach to investing. The massive one-sided insider trading that's been underway during this final push to fresh highs in stocks is a red flag. Corporate executives are selling shares at a strong pace at the same time their companies are buying back shares to boost the EPS and thus, the stock price.

Warren Buffett continues to sit on an enormous cash horde of more than $350 billion, the thinking that if the greatest value investor of this generation is sitting in cash, looking for bargains, then he must be anticipating a pullback.

Not to souond like Chicken Little, procaliming the sky is falling, most indicators and cheerleading by the usual talking heads are insisting that the current rally has more room to run, and indeed, it might. New highs on a regular basis aren't normally the time to be thinking about bailing out, but, if the general understanding of playing stocks is to buy low and sell high, now would seem an appropriate time to at least trim some holdings. There is every possibility that the current bubble will exceed the all-time high on the Shiller PE, which is 44.19, at the peak of the dotcom bubble in December 1999. If that's the target, there's still plenty of room for stocks to run and investors with an eye for the exits might want to hold a little longer, at least until the U.S. congress plays its version of government shutdown no-hold 'em poker as the 2025 fscal year comes to an end on September 30 and the 2026 fiscal year beings October 1. After today, that leaves just six legislative sessions before they put up or shut down. Odds favor a last minute deal, since that's what always happens. Republicans and Democrats will fold like the cheap suits they really are in order to keep the grift and the graft flowing.

With the opening bell approaching, stock futures are foretelling a slight positive lean at the open. Gold and silver are recovering from the usual post-FOMC beatdowns, and WTI crude oil is hovering near the lows of the week, below $63/barrel. This week looks like a safe bet for the bulls, with the possibility of watershed moments next week or on Tuesday, September 30, when congress and the president have to decide on whether or not to keep the plates spinning or partially shut down the government. This is without a doubt a risk-takers kind of scenario.

At the Close, Thursday, September 18, 2025
Dow: 46,142.42, +124.10 (+0.27%)
NASDAQ: 22,470.72 +209.40+(0.94%)
S&P 500: 6,631.96+31.61 (+0.48%)
NYSE Composite: 21,504.35, +64.45 (+0.30%)

Fed Cuts 0.25% Sending Stock Futures Higher; More Cuts to Follow as Fed's Inflation Fight Fails

Wednesday, as FOMC cut the federal funds target rate by 0.25%, to 4.00-4.25%, market response was notably erratic, especially during and after Chairman Powell's disjointed "risk management" press conference. Stocks gyrated from positive to negative and back again, eventually terminating at levels roughly equivalent to where they stood just prior to the policy statement release at 2:00 pm ET.

The entire announcement:

Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting.

With that, the belief that the rate cut had been already "priced in" by markets began to circulate through the various media channels and advisory pundits. It didn't take long, however, for futures markets to express true investor sentiment as shortly after the cash market close, prices began ramping higher, to a point at which, by early morning in America, stock futures were signaling a buying frenzy. By 8:00 am Thursday, Dow futures were up 240 points, NASDAQ futures gained 275, and S&P futures were ahead by 50 points.

There was little to argue concerning the Fed's rationale, despite their own admission that inflation remained well above their preferred two percent annual level. Employment, which had been shaded to the positive by the corrupt BLS, had finally been exposed as well below replacement and growth potential, when the agency admitted the largest "error" in its history: a 911,000 shortfall from reported numbers. Essentially, what the BLS said was that lopping off an average of 80,000 jobs in the 12-month period from April 2024 to March 2025 from their rosy monthly releases would result in a more accurate assessment of job gains. That reassessment of U.S. employment sealed the deal for at least a 25 basis point cut, with more likely to follow.

In the aftermath of the policy decision, quants, savants, and expert Fed watchers pored over the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections provided by FOMC members and, in the usual Wall Street groupthink herd behavior decided that stock prices were currently not quite high enough in consideration of the Fed's thinking towards the future.

Anybody not an expert or otherwise blessed with divination skills on a level with Delphic oracles can clearly see where this is headed. The Fed, while coming close to their "price stability" target inflation rate of two percent, wherein prices double in a mere 40 years, were never really serious about tamping down inflation, and now have completely abandoned the idea of keeping consumer prices in line with average incomes. Prices for essentials and non-essentials alike now have a green light to double in just 25 years, maybe 20, or 10, or possibly sooner. Hyperinflation cannot be ruled out at this juncture.

Maybe President Trump is indeed playing 5th dimension chess with the global economy, his plan to complete the full debasement of the currency, eliminated the Fed and issue currency directly from the Treasury, maybe even back it with gold. Trump's "golden age" for America may prove to provide a wide-ranging ride of emotional pain and euphoria along the way to his perception of prosperity.

For now, the public be damned, President Trump is ultimately going to be granted his wish for ever lower interest rates. Chairman Powell's term expires in May 2026, a mere eight months from now. Before then, the Fed is expected to lower rates by 0.25% at least one more time, probably twice, and possibly as early as the November and December meetings. Wall Street's lascivious habit of relying on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy for price discovery will continue.

Among the more questionable, if not overtly humorous anecdotes of this most recent Fed motion, was recently appointed board member - and the architect of Trump's tariff and overall economic policies - Stephen Miran's vote for a cut of 0.50% at this meeting (denied) and his assessment of appropriate monetary policy for this year of 2.88%, well below all other members and somewhat out in economic left field.

Assessing the current and forward conditions, it appears that the bubble economy will chug forward towards glorious new highs for stocks and prices of everything from milk to Macadamia nuts.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 17, 2025:
Dow: 46,018.32, +260.42 (+0.57%)
NASDAQ: 22,261.33, -72.63 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 6,600.35, -6.41 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 21,439.90, +64.71 (+0.30%)

All Eyes on the Fed as Rate Cut Expectations Soar; Congress Preparing for Government Shutdown Drama

It's unlikely that there will be any surprises when the FOMC announces its interest rate policy decision Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET. The CME's Fed Watch tracker has the odds for a cut of 25 basis points at 94% with just a 6% chance of a 50 basis point drop.

The attention paid to what banks charge each other for moving money overnight (the federal funds target rate) is one of the more endearing qualities of 21st century markets. The CME's tracking tool linked above even has a timer on the page, counting down the time to the announcement to the second, as if life or death rode on the momentous decision of the oracles of the Eccles Building. The Fed headquarters is the one getting a $2.5 billion facelift that so annoyed President Trump that he recently toured the facility with Chairman Jerome Powell.

The dramatics of the eight annual FOMC meetings is only outdone every so often by congress, whenever they run out of other people's money to spend, which, by the way, is about to take center stage again. Speaker of the House, Don Johnson (no, not the Miami Vice guy) Mike Johnson, put up a spending proposal late Tuesday that, if approved by both houses, would keep the government operating until November 21st. In real terms, this is a stop-gap measure designed to fund the excesses of the most reckless, spendthrift congress in the history of the world for maybe two months.

Considering that Democrats have already vowed, as a bloc, to oppose the measure, and that the bill needs a 60-vote majority in the Senate, could this be the occasion for the long-overdue government shutdown for which average citizens have been hoping?

Sorry, that won't ever happen.

Even if it takes until the wee hours of Wednesday, October 1 to iron out a deal, our fruitcakes and flufflers in congress will find a compromise to keep their luxurious grafting going. Democrats are whining about cuts to Medicaid and other social welfare handout programs. Johnson's proposal includes $88 million for increased security for themselves, Supreme Court justices and the president. That measure is sure to pass, so add $88 billion plus annual increases to the calculus of future deficits.

They're so coy and cute, these "lawmakers". Anybody over the age of 50 who isn't sick of government intruding into every aspect of American lives, taxing people to the limits of affordability while at the same time blowing wads of borrowed Federal Reserve Notes on far flung wars, interest on the debt, their own salaries and the various other wastes and abuses of capital should immediately head to see a psychiatrist because there's something wrong upstairs.

All congress does is perpetuate their own existence, as if it mattered to anybody outside their little circle of influence. Americans should have overthrown these easily-bribed sleaze bags decades ago, but instead played along because congress kept handing out freebies over the years since the U.S. left the gold standard. Now that the debt is approaching $40 trillion, the citizenry, though allowed ot be armed to the teeth, is powerless to stop the federal government from doing anything it so pleases. Such is the sorry state of our uniparty "democracy."

Today's mental math challenge: If a tiny house on a small lot could be erected for $100,000, how many homeless people could be awarded with a place to live, rent-free using the $2.5 billion going toward renovating the Federal Reserve's HQ and the $88 million going toward extra security for elected officials (that's a grand total of $2,588,000,000). Answer below.

Tuesday was one of those rare days that the major indices didn't make all-time highs, but, fear not, because as soon as the FOMC makes their momentous announcement that they are cutting some obscure interest rate by 0.25% and the Chairman begins flapping his gums at the press conference, stocks should soar because, if you weren't already aware, cutting the federal funds target rate is not only great for stocks, the general economy, and cures blindness, six forms of cancer, and eliminates bloating, it also grows hair and increases stamina so you'll last longer in bed. Your partner(s) will love it.

Heading toward Wednesday’s open, futres are essentially flat, with the Dow ahead by about 60 points. Gold and silver got gobsmacked overnight (big surprise), but are recovering. That was done so that when the Fed makes its two o'clock announcement, their highs won't be even higher than anyone could imagine. Eventually, they will be, but not today, thank you.

Today's mental math challenge answer: If you answered 25,880, congratulations, you can do math. However, the correct answer is ZERO, as the government, even if places to live could come as cheap as $30,000 or $50,000, the government would never do it because that might cause people to think twice about their $2500 mortgage payments, annual real estate taxes exceeding $5,000 (much more in many cases) and how badly they're being screwed without even a reach-around. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 16, 2025:

Dow: 45,757.90, -125.55 (-0.27%)

NASDAQ: 22,333.96, -14.84 (-0.07%)

S&P 500: 6,606.76, -8.52 (-0.13%)

NYSE Composite: 21,375.19, -19.40 (-0.09%)