Wednesday, September 17, 2025

All Eyes on the Fed as Rate Cut Expectations Soar; Congress Preparing for Government Shutdown Drama

It's unlikely that there will be any surprises when the FOMC announces its interest rate policy decision Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET. The CME's Fed Watch tracker has the odds for a cut of 25 basis points at 94% with just a 6% chance of a 50 basis point drop.

The attention paid to what banks charge each other for moving money overnight (the federal funds target rate) is one of the more endearing qualities of 21st century markets. The CME's tracking tool linked above even has a timer on the page, counting down the time to the announcement to the second, as if life or death rode on the momentous decision of the oracles of the Eccles Building. The Fed headquarters is the one getting a $2.5 billion facelift that so annoyed President Trump that he recently toured the facility with Chairman Jerome Powell.

The dramatics of the eight annual FOMC meetings is only outdone every so often by congress, whenever they run out of other people's money to spend, which, by the way, is about to take center stage again. Speaker of the House, Don Johnson (no, not the Miami Vice guy) Mike Johnson, put up a spending proposal late Tuesday that, if approved by both houses, would keep the government operating until November 21st. In real terms, this is a stop-gap measure designed to fund the excesses of the most reckless, spendthrift congress in the history of the world for maybe two months.

Considering that Democrats have already vowed, as a bloc, to oppose the measure, and that the bill needs a 60-vote majority in the Senate, could this be the occasion for the long-overdue government shutdown for which average citizens have been hoping?

Sorry, that won't ever happen.

Even if it takes until the wee hours of Wednesday, October 1 to iron out a deal, our fruitcakes and flufflers in congress will find a compromise to keep their luxurious grafting going. Democrats are whining about cuts to Medicaid and other social welfare handout programs. Johnson's proposal includes $88 million for increased security for themselves, Supreme Court justices and the president. That measure is sure to pass, so add $88 billion plus annual increases to the calculus of future deficits.

They're so coy and cute, these "lawmakers". Anybody over the age of 50 who isn't sick of government intruding into every aspect of American lives, taxing people to the limits of affordability while at the same time blowing wads of borrowed Federal Reserve Notes on far flung wars, interest on the debt, their own salaries and the various other wastes and abuses of capital should immediately head to see a psychiatrist because there's something wrong upstairs.

All congress does is perpetuate their own existence, as if it mattered to anybody outside their little circle of influence. Americans should have overthrown these easily-bribed sleaze bags decades ago, but instead played along because congress kept handing out freebies over the years since the U.S. left the gold standard. Now that the debt is approaching $40 trillion, the citizenry, though allowed ot be armed to the teeth, is powerless to stop the federal government from doing anything it so pleases. Such is the sorry state of our uniparty "democracy."

Today's mental math challenge: If a tiny house on a small lot could be erected for $100,000, how many homeless people could be awarded with a place to live, rent-free using the $2.5 billion going toward renovating the Federal Reserve's HQ and the $88 million going toward extra security for elected officials (that's a grand total of $2,588,000,000). Answer below.

Tuesday was one of those rare days that the major indices didn't make all-time highs, but, fear not, because as soon as the FOMC makes their momentous announcement that they are cutting some obscure interest rate by 0.25% and the Chairman begins flapping his gums at the press conference, stocks should soar because, if you weren't already aware, cutting the federal funds target rate is not only great for stocks, the general economy, and cures blindness, six forms of cancer, and eliminates bloating, it also grows hair and increases stamina so you'll last longer in bed. Your partner(s) will love it.

Heading toward Wednesday’s open, futres are essentially flat, with the Dow ahead by about 60 points. Gold and silver got gobsmacked overnight (big surprise), but are recovering. That was done so that when the Fed makes its two o'clock announcement, their highs won't be even higher than anyone could imagine. Eventually, they will be, but not today, thank you.

Today's mental math challenge answer: If you answered 25,880, congratulations, you can do math. However, the correct answer is ZERO, as the government, even if places to live could come as cheap as $30,000 or $50,000, the government would never do it because that might cause people to think twice about their $2500 mortgage payments, annual real estate taxes exceeding $5,000 (much more in many cases) and how badly they're being screwed without even a reach-around. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 16, 2025:

Dow: 45,757.90, -125.55 (-0.27%)

NASDAQ: 22,333.96, -14.84 (-0.07%)

S&P 500: 6,606.76, -8.52 (-0.13%)

NYSE Composite: 21,375.19, -19.40 (-0.09%)

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