WEEKEND WRAP: Government Shutdown Looming; Gold, Silver Boom; September Payroll Data May Be Delayed; Congress, President Reportedly Far Apart

The U.S. government continues to flirt with disaster, as congress and the president play chicken over a possible shutdown, set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Barring congressional action and the president's signature, "non-essential" agencies could be shutdown until a deal is reached. Most people would experience little change, unless it gets serious. The Postal Service, for instance, would continue to operate. Social Security checks would continue to go out on time. SNAP food stamp benefits would arrive on schedule.

If the politicians in Washington were serious, everything would be shut down. The idea that paying retirees and doling out food stamps is an "essential" function belies the truth about Washington money schemes.

A government shutdown could delay Friday's scheduled jobs report, due out Friday at 8:30 am ET. That could cause some chaotic trading and speculation on whether or not the U.S. jobs market is in good health or not, the latest barrage of data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent conversations suggesting that there is trouble brewing in employment. Here's a rundown on what gets shut down and what remains open.

Financial markets will no doubt react to whatever the government decides to do. A short-term shutdown or a week or less wouldn't have much effect on stocks, generally. If the shutdown - which appears to be about a 70-80% certainty at this point - lasts longer, Wall Street might consider it something unwanted and stocks could be damaged, short term, especially those that rely on the federal government for business.

Defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and gold stand to outperform, while industrials and defense contractors face greater uncertainty according to Steven Cress, Head of Quantitative Strategies at Seeking Alpha, who offers an interesting market view on shutdown dynamics.

There's no bottom line on how a possible shutdown will turn out. Best strategists are suggesting to be defensive, buy some protection (put options), but try to remain calm as there will no doubt be plenty of noise with which to contend. Much of it will be meaningless. Some elements of this shutdown, such as the president promising to fire or permanently layoff (RIF, reduction in force) workers furloughed in case of a shutdown might make this shutdown different from those which came before, which amounted to a slight disturbance before markets got back to business as usual.

Stocks

Friday's boost on the majors didn't quite make up for the losses incurred earlier in the week. In an odd reversal, the Dow Jones Transportation Average was the only index to show weekly gains. All the others were down, though only slightly, wiht the most severe (if one can call it that) was on the NASDAQ, which fell 147.41 points (-0.65%).

Thus, stocks ended the week at an almost neutral stance. Given the general trend is for higher prices, overvaluation and fear of a government shutdown may keep a lid on things next week until there comes a resolution, if any. If economic data is delayed due to the shutdown, it would leave some analysts "flying blind," though, if the recent discoveries of just how flawed government data has become is any indication, the lack of government figures might force some players to actually do a little due diligence on individual stocks and various sectors.

Friday's Non-farm payroll report is the big cahuna of the week, though, as mentioned above, it may not make an appearance. Otherwise, third quarter earnings won't be out until late in the week after next, beginning, as usual, with an assortment of banking stocks.

There may be some consolidation in light of the current conditions. Tech, consumer discretionary, and industrials are likely to see some sideways movement.

The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed out the week at 39.84, near its recent high, but more than likely to get a boost when, and if, congress decides to keep the grift going, or, in layman's terms, keep the government open.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87
08/29/2025	4.41	4.34	4.30	4.23	4.17	4.01	3.83
09/05/2025	4.29	4.24	4.24	4.07	4.05	3.85	3.65
09/12/2025	4.24	4.24	4.20	4.08	4.02	3.83	3.66
09/19/2025	4.19	4.16	4.14	4.03	3.98	3.81	3.60
09/26/2025	4.22	4.20	4.17	4.02	4.00	3.83	3.67

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88
08/29/2025	3.59	3.58	3.68	3.92	4.23	4.86	4.92
09/05/2025	3.51	3.48	3.59	3.80	4.10	4.72	4.78
09/12/2025	3.56	3.52	3.63	3.81	4.06	4.65	4.68
09/19/2025	3.57	3.56	3.68	3.88	4.14	4.71	4.75
09/26/2025	3.63	3.66	3.76	3.96	4.20	4.74	4.77

There was some movement in the middle, or belly, of the curve this week, with a minor buyer's strike on 3s, 5s, and 7s, up 10, 8, and 8 basis points, respectively. Overall, if rumors of foreign investors opting out of treasuries in search of gold are true, the slack has been taken up by primary dealers and, increasingly, stablecoin outfits.

Spreads on 2s-10s were unmoved at +57 and remained elevated on full spectrum, at +55. Not much to see here as the Fed and its proxies are heading toward some level of curve control, with occasional forays into the mix by the U.S. Treasury. In case of a shutdown, don't expect Treasury to be doing much buying. Secretary Bessent will be busy keeping up with extraordinary measures to pay current and ongoing obligations.

One bright side to a government shutdown, if it becomes elongated, is that the world's public might get a real taste of just how tragically fragile the U.S. treasury market and the government has become.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55

Oil/Gas

Somewhat to the countercyclical, WTI crude oil moved higher, closing out the week in New York at $65.19, with a peak on Friday of $66.34 before settling out. Friday's price was up sharply from last week's $62.36. With everybody from the Saudis to Russians to U.S. shale producers drilling full bore, this week's gains are probably going to be short-lived as there is no indication that there's any shortage of oil or distillates anywhere.

Gas prices dropped seven cents from last week, the national average now $3.10, according to Gasbuddy.com.

State-by-state numbers show California remaining on top, at $4.65 per gallon, followed closely by Washington ($4.56) and joined in the $4 club by Oregon ($4.19), though all three states showed moderating prices through the week. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.53) at a multi-month low, followed by Mississippi ($2.64) and Louisiana ($2.71).

The Northeast remained above $3.00, with Virginia ($2.93), West Virginia ($2.96), Ohio ($2.86) and Kentucky ($2.78) bucking the trend. Indiana ($2.12), Illinois ($3.38) and Michigan ($3.00) form a $3-plus bloc. From Wisconsin ($2.83), Minnesota ($2.95) and North Dakota ($2.87) south, all states are sub-$3.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 25 states, up four from last week, concentrated in the South and Midwest with Ohio, Minnesota, Florida, and Colorado dropping below the line. The entire Southeast, out to New Mexico ($2.80) is under $3.00 a gallon. Gas in next door neighbor New Mexico is $3.57, making border hops appealing to cost-conscious drivers.

Bitcoin

This week: $109,980.20
Last week: $115,734.60
2 weeks ago: $115,368.20
6 months ago: $84,261.42
One year ago: $65,848.43
Five years ago: $11,367.93

The Ponzi has continues at stall speed, taking a slight hit this week. In case of a swoon in stocks and margin calls, the money to cover is going to come from bitcoin, not gold or silver, because, while precious metals have been on a tear, bitcoin has lagged severely, because it's not money and actually is just a clever math construct. Funds will be selling off bitcoin holdings faster than racehorses at Del Mar.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 81.73; last week: 85.76

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80
Gold price 9/12: $3,680.70
Gold price 9/19: $3,719.40
Gold price 9/26: $3,789.80

Silver price 8/29: $40.75
Silver price 9/5: $41.51
Silver price 9/12: $42.68
Silver price 9/19: $43.37
Silver price 9/26: $46.37

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	46.30	58.50	51.66	49.48
1 oz silver bar:	48.00	58.95	53.52	53.49
1 oz gold coin:	3,898.77	4,040.69	3,956.08	3,933.82
1 oz gold bar:	3,873.95	3,947.82	3,916.97	3,923.85

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) remained raced to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $52.04, a massive gain of $3.21 cents from the September 21 price of $48.83 per troy ounce.

Gold and silver continued to move higher, with silver leading the way over the near term. Year-to-date, gold is up 44.23%; silver, 59.58% after this week's huge move higher.

Silver is obviously in the cat-bird seat, having been mercilessly suppressed for decades and especially the past 14 years, it's finally about to go vertical. The all-time highs are approaching, but, understand, that level above $49 is not inflation-adjusted, so this recent move is probably just the beginning. $50 is the obvious target and once it heads beyond that there is little to no resistance. Wiht financial advisors now putting clients into gold allocations of anywhere from five to 20% of their portfolios, prices are going in one direction only and silver, the choice of speculators, will likely lead. $60, $80, and eventually triple-digit silver is no longer pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking, but quickly becoming a reality. The gold:silver ratio of 81.73 this week, down from highs above 100 earlier this year is still complete fiction. All indications are for a steep decline in the ratio as silver's value propositions and relationship to gold are re-discovered.

According to investopedia:

For hundreds of years, the gold-silver ratio did not fluctuate much. The ratio was fixed by governments to keep their official currencies stable.

The Roman Empire officially set the ratio at 12:1. In medieval Europe, it fell to 9.4:1 in 1350 but climbed back to 12:1 in the 1450s. The U.S. government fixed the ratio at 15:1 with the Coinage Act of 1792. It has only been at these obscene levels for the last 120 years or so.

Prepare to say goodbye to the COMEX and the London price fix. While they'll continue to operate, those old school pricing mechanisms are being gradually overtaken by honest price-setters with settlements in physical metal in Shanghai and soon, St. Petersburg and Dubai, as the West gives away authority to BRICS-related entities. Gold is already at record-high prices everywhere in the world. Silver will break through $50 an ounce soon enough, quite possibly by the end of the year. If silver reaches $50 before January 1, 2026, there's every possibility for $60 over the next year, as that would amount to a mere 20% gain.

WEEKEND WRAP

Keep some powder dry and buy protection. Puts and bullets are preferred.

At the Close, Friday, September 26, 2025:
Dow: 46,247.29, +299.97 (+0.65%)
NASDAQ: 22,484.07, +99.37 (+0.44%)
S&P 500: 6,643.70, +38.98 (+0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 21,477.51, +140.52 (+0.66%)

For The Week:
Dow: -67.08 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ: -147.41 (-0.65%)
S&P 500: -20.66 (-0.31%)
NYSE Composite: -16.46 (-0.08%)
Dow Transports: +119.01 (+0.77%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Is This Not the Financial Crisis You've Been Told to Be Looking For? GDP up 3.8% According to BEA; Why Worry?

As of Thursday's close, for the week, the Dow is down 367 points, the NASDAQ is off 246, and the S&P is 59 points lower. They're all down close to one percent. This comes as the BEA on Thursday revised second quarter GDP up to 3.8% in the final estimate, up from 3.3% in the August estimate and 3.0% in July.

As explained in Thursday's post, the declines are larger when measured after the spikes higher on Monday on the S&P and NASDAQ and Tuesday on the Dow.

Why aren't stocks going up? Does Wall Street not believe the numbers being presented by the government? Maybe they shouldn't. After all, the jobs numbers have been revised down massively the last two years, lower by more than 1.7 million than originally reported, so there's reason to believe that somebody's lying.

And how about the 2.8% increase in August Durable Goods Orders? Well, that figure got explained away pretty quickly by stripping out aircraft (Boeing), inflation and the Big Beautiful Bill's re-introduction of 100% bonus depreciation.

Friday morning's release of the PCE by the Commerce Department may change things, though it's confounding to understand why. Stock futures soared on data that showed PCE in August up 0.3% as expected, and up 2.7% on an annualized basis. Core PCE was measured as up 2.9% over the last 12 months. Apparently, three percent inflation is the new standard.

Worried about a government shutdown?

Don't be. There's a reason that the House and Senate are on recess just as the federal government faces a funding issue as the 2025 fiscal year ends (9/30) and the 2026 fiscal year begins (10/1). It's the same reason that October is usually when stock market crashes happen. When the government Fs up, Wall Street reacts. It's as common as clockwork, albeit, with a bit of a lag.

The government and Wall Street have been joined at the hip for a very long time. That's not changing and isn't changing because Donald J. Trump is president, or Charlie Kirk got shot and killed, or Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu is speaking at the United Nations on Friday, or that Secretary of Defense (or War, as President Trump likes to call it) has summoned roughly 800 top military commanders to Quantico, Virginia early next week.

While that last one is a bit of a puzzler as no details have been provided, it still shouldn't alarm anybody.

Nonetheless, people of varying stripes and cultures will get triggered over these events and conditions. Go ahead and vent if you must, but don't lose your mind over things that are just stitches in the tapestry that's been woven since the days of Vietnam, LBJ, and the peace movement of the 1960s. The people who control things in the United States, and by proxy, in the rest of the world, don't like peace, and don't want peace, because they don't profit from peace. They thrive on and profit from war, struggle, destruction, and devastation. If your life is in tatters, the folks at the very top of the economic and social structure will be smiling. There's no doubt that the wealthiest, most connected people in the world see regular citizens as less than pawns in a larger game. They have reasons to think that way. They have billions. The rest of the world has almost nothing.

That may come as a surprise to those who are actually doing well, who mostly ignore scary headlines, pay no attention to the news of the day and simply carry on with their lives as if nothing much is happening. Most people remain unaffected to a large degree in the grand scheme of things because the system has been fully integrated into their beliefs. They trust the government. They trust the news. They're blissfully ignorant, which is how the control freaks at the top want everyone to be.

It makes perfect sense to play along with whatever the big money interests are doing. It's largely profitable, especially if one is ale to discern the motives and sense the timing and it may not be all that difficult to predict when its time to plant seeds, when to nurture nature and when to reap the harvest. Patterns of agriculture have endured the centuries and are engrained into the fabric of economic life. Spring is time to plant. Summer is time to tend. Fall is time to reap the harvest and that's exactly what's about to occur.

The federal government isn't going to stop functioning and trying to control everybody's life even if the congress engineers a shutdown. Any shutdown that happens - and it looks like this one is going to happen - will hardly be noticed by the general public. Social Security checks will still go out. SNAP benefits will still be delivered. Rents will get paid, kids will go to school and football will be played on weekends. Only the media will actually be concerned about it. The government, which cold have averted a shutdown if they so pleased, will act as if the world might end without them running things. It won't and they know it.

But...

Wall Street may take the opportunity to make your life a little more miserable by running down stocks like they did in April... or during COVID, or in 2008, or in 2000, or 1984. Happens all the time.

If you were a fund manager and your career depended on beating the S&P and making profits for your clients, wouldn't you be inclined to sell when the S&P is up 12% year-to-date and 32% from the April lows? Yes, you would, especially if your stocks have done as well or better. You could moe largely to cash, keep some core positions, and spend the rest of the year lounging in the Bahamas or Morocco, or Southeast Asia enjoying the sweet life.

After whatever systemic shock has been planned and executed, things will return to normal, or, whatever normal looks like these days. There will be protests and demonstrations, mean tweets from president orange, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine will continue. Big Wall Street firms will have made oodles of money. People who thought they could outsmart the market will be poorer, and guess what? The U.S. government will be back in business, like nothing actually happened because nothing did happen. It just looked that way.

A few days ago, Marty Bent and Ed Dowd had a pretty wide-ranging discussion. It's an hour long, but the real meat is near the end, after about the 57-minute mark. If one is so inclined and has the time (Hey, you're going to watch football and baseball for hours this weekend, you can probably squeeze this in.), it's worth viewing.

At the Close, Thursday, September 25, 2025:
Dow: 45,947.32, -173.96 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 22,384.70, -113.16 (-0.50%)
S&P 500: 6,604.72, -33.25 (-0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 21,336.99, -146.49 (-0.68%)

Who Rang the Bell? Is a Possible Government Shutdown Prompting a Top for Stocks? Advanced Planning Does Not Exist

It's been said that "nobody rings a bell at the top," meaning that market tops are highly unpredictable, even for the best AI bots or Wall Street market analysts.

From Tuesday's breakout on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (46,682.71) to Wednesday's closing bell, the Dow has lost a little more than one percent. That surely doesn't sound like much, but downturns have to start somewhere and the timing of this tail seems a bit suspect.

Previously, on Monday, the S&P topped late in the afternoon session (6,697.91) as did the NASDAQ (22,794.95). Both were ahead of the market by quite a bit and both have been tumbling since. While Money Daily has been promoting the idea that stocks appear to have further room to run, if this spate of downside sliding continues through the rest of this week and into the next - when the government's fiscal year of 2025 ends on September 30 and 2026 begins on October 1 - there's a good likelihood of serious erosion if the congressional assemblage doesn't come together on a stop-gap funding continuing resolution (CR) to maintain the government through the next seven weeks (November 22).

Yes, that's right, seven weeks. All the wrangling and arm-twisting in D.C. is over legislation that funds the government for less than two months. Democrats are digging in on restoring a trillion dollars worth of Medicare/Medicaid cuts that were tossed out under the president’s "big, beautiful bill" that he signed on July 4. Republicans contend that they want a "clean" bill with no additions other than $30 to $50 million for additional security for legislators, the Trump administration, and Supreme Court justices.

That officials of the federal government are concerned about their own safety is an interesting anecdote, considering they are, as a whole, probably the most unserious, facile, self-absorbed gaggle of misanthropes ever assembled in one place, lurching from one self-imposed crisis to the next with seven-week interims, devoid of any functional approach to the governance of the country they are busily destroying. It's not enough that people hate them - Democrats, Republicans and the few faux-independents all - now they want to flaunt their distrust of the body politic by surrounding themselves with sentinels and surveillance squads. Most people would prefer they simply went away. The growing movement among the populace is to ignore and avoid contact with any of them and their regulations, taxes, and policies as much as possible. One cannot lay the blame of the emerging curse of this reckless, feckless political class on the American people. The "uniparty" has long been planned and groomed from the inside by deep state operatives into what now has become a scourge upon the entire planet.

Getting back to the financial end of the ongoing drama, a partial government shutdown might force the hand of Treasury Secretary Bessent to impose emergency functions, including not paying certain bills and withholding payments to contractors. The longer a shutdown - even though one has always been considered more of a parlor game than an actual crisis - persists, the closer the United States comes to capitulation and defaulting on obligations.

It could become serious enough that treasury yields begin to spike, the most obvious would be in two-year and 10-year notes, the yields on which have been coddled and driven lower by faith-keeping buyers of U.S. debt, the most likely culprits the primary dealers and emerging stablecoin privateers.

What looks to be the beginning of a downdraft for the stock market may have had its birthing with the ringing of the opening bell at the NYSE on Monday by none other than disraced former presidential advisor Mike Waltz, who was kicked sideways by the Trump administration to become the U.S. Representative to the United Nations after being found complicit in group chat leaks concerning planned military operations. Rather than address the seriousness of the leaks and raise the bar of outrage, Trump downplayed the event, sending Waltz off to the U.N. gulag, where he has little influence and can cause almost no damage. Trump would rather see the U.N. dismembered for all its worth. Thus, Waltz's appointment is as ironic as it is relevant. His ringing of the bell on Monday, September 22, might as well serve as a signal to begin selling stocks in earnest, no tin-foil caps needed.

The NYSE takes the ring-a-ding-dinging of the opening and closing bells seriously. So much that they devote pages to it on their website as the "Bell Calendar" complete with videos of the ritual ringings. While Money Daily may be going out on a limb promoting a risk off agenda, but no more so than the howling media's near-constant streams of good tidings for small investors. It's useful to have some counterweight to overt propaganda. Ours is forged in silver and gold, which, notably, have been handily out-performing everything else for the better part of the past two years.

Whether or not our feckless leaders in Washington have plans to shutter the government for a while or not is not the most important issue presently. How to escape the entanglements they've entwined the country into and how to reform or replace the current government goons over the longer term would seem to take precedence. But, nobody thinks long term anymore. That's so 1950s. With the immediacy of media and focus on current issues, who has time for planning? Obviously not the 7-week-wonders populating the nations' capital. They're too busy framing the propaganda narrative that keeps Americans on the ropes, or on the dole, or on the rolling hate wagon.

It's working. Americans hate everything, including the very people they elected to fix things. According to recent polling, congress has an overall approval rating of about 20-27%, meaning there is roughly a quarter of the polling population that actually has been bribed enough to express an approving opinion of these lazy grifters.

The president is polling at about 40% approval and the direction of the country slightly less than that, around 35%. These polls change daily, depending on who's doing the asking and answering and the political flavor of the day. Mostly, polls are noise. Generally, people don't like politics or politicians and resent being fed a daily diet of them.

The United States is hurtling down a path of its own demise, aided by those at the top of the policy apparatus. Despite President Trump's insistence that the country is the "hottest" on the planet, the Braggart-in-Chief has a hard sell in front of him. Anyone taking the time to compare the U.S., and, by extension, Europe, with emergent Asian nations can clearly see the flow of capital, good manners, peace, justice, and common sense from West to East. Russian and Chinese cities aren't littered with homeless bums and drug addicts. If American cities are - a claim that is easily verified - how is one supposed to accept the "so hot" argument?

Trump's plans for a "golden age" for America appear to be little more than rhetorical limning for the MAGA camp. Even though he's had only eight months, outside of deportation efforts, most of his campaign promises have yet to be fulfilled. Gas prices aren't down, though they are stable. Food prices are definitely higher now than back in January. Ukraine and Gaza are still killing fields. American schools are broken. Tariffs seem to have produced, besides the revenue for the government, higher prices on fewer imports. Um, Epstein files? Let's not go there.

Meantime, Trump excoriates the rest of the world at the U.N., though one can give him a pass on this after the obvious attempts to sabotage his speech have emerged. Trump also tweeted out some kind of nonsense on Wednesday about Ukraine winning back the territories taken by Russia. Whether he's playing 6D chess or just trolling (probably the latter), it wasn't very gracious, accurate, or effective.

With a half hour to the opening bell, stock futures are down across the board. Dow: -118; NASDAQ: -171; -S&P: -31.

Gold is holding steady around $3,667, while silver topped out this morning at $45.37 on the COMEX and is hanging right around $45 per ounce.

Let's see where this goes...

At the Close, Wednesday, September 24, 2025:
Dow: 46,121.28, -171.50 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 22,497.86, -75.62 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 6,637.97, -18.95 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 21,483.48, -64.73 (-0.30%)

$10,000 Gold, $120 Silver Entirely Possible by 2030: Shiller PE Hits 40.15; Trends Remain Positive for Stocks, Metals

Following up on yesterday's post about why everybody should hold some precious metals, Jim Rickards has made this point on numerous occasions: continued 20% annual increases in the price of precious metals adds up rather quickly.

For instance, suppose gold finishes this year around $4,000 (a fairly safe bet) and silver around $50 (a distinct possibility), if they both make 20% gains in 2026, which, as a matter of fact, would be nothing compared to how they've performed in 2024 and thus far in 2025, gold would be $4,800 and silver $60. Barring any unforeseen "black swans," such as the U.S. government suddenly balancing its budget and begin repaying its $37 trillion debt (LOLOLOL, never gonna happen), World War III, or a complete crash in stocks, bonds, everything, the opportunity for $10,000 gold and $120 silver is not only well within reach, that might turn out to be at the low end of predictability.

Looking out further on the investment horizon, 20% gains in 2027 would mean gold at ($4800 + $960) $5760, ($5760 +$1152) $6,912 in 2028, ($6912 + $1382) $8294 in 2029, and ($8294 + $1658) $9,952 in 2030.

Silver's advance would be along the same lines and probably even better, especially since the gold:silver ratio needs to be ratcheted down to more traditional standards, like 20:1 or 16:1 or even 12:1. The current 84:1 is obscenely undervaluing silver, even if it is only part monetary metal and part industrial.

If silver is $60 an ounce in 2026, 20% increases over the next four years would look like this: $72 in 2027; $86.40 in 2028, $103.68 in 2029, and $124.42 in 2030. It's probably going to reach levels beyond that.

Thus, all those who just five years ago were saying that people calling for $10,000 gold and triple-digit silver were wrong, out to lunch, delusional, or otherwise full of balogna would be proven dead wrong.

What is likely to happen before 2030 is a complete washout of fiat currencies and a return to some form of gold standard. The U.S. dollar, Japan's yen, the euro, yuan, francs, pounds are not going to survive on "full faith and credit" of their respective governments for very much longer. Gold will be backing these currencies to the tune of at least 40%, quite possibly more, in order to keep some semblance of balance, fairness, and realism in international markets. Floating currencies will become obsolete. Everything will be pegged to gold and the countries with the most gold will have the best prospects for prosperity entering the third decade of the 21st century.

Economies of countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Peru, with large silver deposits, will improve. They might even decide to back their currencies with silver and gold.

The problems with such a scenario is that it's a radical change from the debt-based currencies people have been forced ot use since around 1933 and beyond. Such currencies, created out of thin air, with nothing backing them, have been printed to near oblivion, stealing away the wealth of the people. The U.S. dollar will cease to be the wold's reserve currency. It will be supplanted and replaced by gold.

The beginnings of this trend are already underway and could begin evolving at a faster pace quite soon. Rest assured that as stocks deteriorate, the wheedling operators at the COMEX, CME, and LBMA will do their level worst to see that gold and silver are punished as well, only, this time may indeed be different. More and more investors are running to precious metals from stocks. They are not running from both. Gold is now seen as the safe haven, devoid of counter-party risk and a hedge against inflation of fiat currencies. Investors are flocking to it.

By the way, the Shiller PE (CAPE) closed Monday at 40.15, clearly the second-highest level ever achieved. That was before Tuesday's drops on the major indices, but there is surely more fuel to burn in the current stock melt-up. The Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the Shiller PE will set new high marks before the year 2025 is done.

With the opening bell approaching, stock futures portend a positive open for stocks. Dow futures: +63; NASDAQ futures: +55; S&P futures: +10. Gold, $3,800, and silver, $44.35, have pulled back slightly from Tuesday's run-up. WTI crude oil is higher, at $64.35 and rising.

The trend remains higher for stocks and precious metals. Oil's move is a blip. Supply is simply larger than demand and prices will soon fall into the 50s. At the Close, Tuesday, September 23, 2025:
Dow: 46,292.78, -88.76 (-0.19%)
NASDAQ: 22,573.47, -215.50 (-0.95%)
S&P 500: 6,656.92, -36.83 (-0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 21,548.21, +5.74 (+0.03%)

Gold and Silver Are Sending a Message to the Market

Let's talk about gambling instead of stocks today.

Have you ever lost a couple hundred dollars at a race track or blown a wad of cash betting sports over a weekend or dropped a grand or two in Las Vegas, or, worse yet, playing online poker or other games?

If you haven't, you might want to consider buying some gold or silver, and doing it soon, if not right now.

The reason is that losing money at the track or online or even in Vegas, baby! is gone. Gone. Forever. You may believe that you can win it back, but the reality is that you have to put up more of your own capital to do so. It's a trap most compulsive gamblers fall into without even knowing it. You never win it back. The odds are stacked against you. The best you can hope for is to lose a little less.

So, there's gold and silver. Easy to buy, relatively safe to have shipped by the U.S. Postal Service or purchased from a local dealer, and quite simple to store at home in a safe place. The great thing about precious metals is that they never lose, or, to put it more succinctly, you can never lose them (unless, as the joke goes, you have a tragic boating accident and your bullion has found its way to the bottom of a lake or ocean).

The price of gold or silver can go down, but, that's not been the case lately, and, even if the price does go down, a quick check of your socks drawer will reveal the truth about precious metals: they're still there.

Gold, which continues to set all-time highs against the dollar and every other fiat currency day after day, this morning hit $3,828.20 on the COMEX. Silver hit $44.72. A month ago, they were $3,417.50 and $39.21, respectively. They've gained 11.7% and 13.7%, with silver the big winner. Year-to-date, gold is up 44%; silver 52%. If you bought either at the end of last year or early in January of 2025, you're ahead enormously.

Long-time stackers who were buying gold at $700, $1100, or even $1800, and silver at $7, $14, or $21, are sitting literally on a pile of gold (or silver).

The kicker is that it's still not too late. Measured against the U.S. dollar or any other fiat currency - which is all of them - they continue to rise. Stocks keep going up as well, but those digits you see on your computer screen, be they five, six or even eight figures large, are subject to change, and those are changes over which you have absolutely no control.

The gold and silver in your closet, or at-home safe is never going to change. They're always going to be worth something and they will always and forever be bars, rounds, or coins of set weights, be those grams, ounces, or, if you're one of the lucky ones, pounds.

The chance that gold or silver will be worth less in a day, a week, a month, a year, or beyond is very slim. The precious metals, including palladium and platinum, continue to reflect the realities of modern government finances, which are, today, deeply indebted, losing value (inflation), and likely to be replaced by something other than dollars, yen, euros, francs, lira, yuan, rupees, etc. Something more solid.

They'll be replaced by gold and silver will be along for the ride.

That's the message precious metals are sending to the markets. Are you listening?

As the gambling horde of investors, speculators, and shiftless managers readies for another day of paper-chasing, stock futures are flat, with only the Dow futures up around 50 points.

Gold and silver are already up more than one percent each.

At the Close, Monday, September 22, 2025:
Dow: 46,381.54, +66.27 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 22,788.98, +157.50 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: 6,693.75, +29.39 (+0.44%)
NYSE Composite: 21,542.47, +48.51 (+0.23%)