If the politicians in Washington were serious, everything would be shut down. The idea that paying retirees and doling out food stamps is an "essential" function belies the truth about Washington money schemes.
A government shutdown could delay Friday's scheduled jobs report, due out Friday at 8:30 am ET. That could cause some chaotic trading and speculation on whether or not the U.S. jobs market is in good health or not, the latest barrage of data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent conversations suggesting that there is trouble brewing in employment. Here's a rundown on what gets shut down and what remains open.
Financial markets will no doubt react to whatever the government decides to do. A short-term shutdown or a week or less wouldn't have much effect on stocks, generally. If the shutdown - which appears to be about a 70-80% certainty at this point - lasts longer, Wall Street might consider it something unwanted and stocks could be damaged, short term, especially those that rely on the federal government for business.
Defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and gold stand to outperform, while industrials and defense contractors face greater uncertainty according to Steven Cress, Head of Quantitative Strategies at Seeking Alpha, who offers an interesting market view on shutdown dynamics.
There's no bottom line on how a possible shutdown will turn out. Best strategists are suggesting to be defensive, buy some protection (put options), but try to remain calm as there will no doubt be plenty of noise with which to contend. Much of it will be meaningless. Some elements of this shutdown, such as the president promising to fire or permanently layoff (RIF, reduction in force) workers furloughed in case of a shutdown might make this shutdown different from those which came before, which amounted to a slight disturbance before markets got back to business as usual.
Stocks
Friday's boost on the majors didn't quite make up for the losses incurred earlier in the week. In an odd reversal, the Dow Jones Transportation Average was the only index to show weekly gains. All the others were down, though only slightly, wiht the most severe (if one can call it that) was on the NASDAQ, which fell 147.41 points (-0.65%).
Thus, stocks ended the week at an almost neutral stance. Given the general trend is for higher prices, overvaluation and fear of a government shutdown may keep a lid on things next week until there comes a resolution, if any. If economic data is delayed due to the shutdown, it would leave some analysts "flying blind," though, if the recent discoveries of just how flawed government data has become is any indication, the lack of government figures might force some players to actually do a little due diligence on individual stocks and various sectors.
Friday's Non-farm payroll report is the big cahuna of the week, though, as mentioned above, it may not make an appearance. Otherwise, third quarter earnings won't be out until late in the week after next, beginning, as usual, with an assortment of banking stocks.
There may be some consolidation in light of the current conditions. Tech, consumer discretionary, and industrials are likely to see some sideways movement.
The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed out the week at 39.84, near its recent high, but more than likely to get a boost when, and if, congress decides to keep the grift going, or, in layman's terms, keep the government open.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 08/22/2025 | 4.47 | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.27 | 4.21 | 4.08 | 3.87 |
| 08/29/2025 | 4.41 | 4.34 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 4.17 | 4.01 | 3.83 |
| 09/05/2025 | 4.29 | 4.24 | 4.24 | 4.07 | 4.05 | 3.85 | 3.65 |
| 09/12/2025 | 4.24 | 4.24 | 4.20 | 4.08 | 4.02 | 3.83 | 3.66 |
| 09/19/2025 | 4.19 | 4.16 | 4.14 | 4.03 | 3.98 | 3.81 | 3.60 |
| 09/26/2025 | 4.22 | 4.20 | 4.17 | 4.02 | 4.00 | 3.83 | 3.67 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 08/22/2025 | 3.68 | 3.64 | 3.76 | 3.98 | 4.26 | 4.84 | 4.88 |
| 08/29/2025 | 3.59 | 3.58 | 3.68 | 3.92 | 4.23 | 4.86 | 4.92 |
| 09/05/2025 | 3.51 | 3.48 | 3.59 | 3.80 | 4.10 | 4.72 | 4.78 |
| 09/12/2025 | 3.56 | 3.52 | 3.63 | 3.81 | 4.06 | 4.65 | 4.68 |
| 09/19/2025 | 3.57 | 3.56 | 3.68 | 3.88 | 4.14 | 4.71 | 4.75 |
| 09/26/2025 | 3.63 | 3.66 | 3.76 | 3.96 | 4.20 | 4.74 | 4.77 |
There was some movement in the middle, or belly, of the curve this week, with a minor buyer's strike on 3s, 5s, and 7s, up 10, 8, and 8 basis points, respectively. Overall, if rumors of foreign investors opting out of treasuries in search of gold are true, the slack has been taken up by primary dealers and, increasingly, stablecoin outfits.
Spreads on 2s-10s were unmoved at +57 and remained elevated on full spectrum, at +55. Not much to see here as the Fed and its proxies are heading toward some level of curve control, with occasional forays into the mix by the U.S. Treasury. In case of a shutdown, don't expect Treasury to be doing much buying. Secretary Bessent will be busy keeping up with extraordinary measures to pay current and ongoing obligations.
One bright side to a government shutdown, if it becomes elongated, is that the world's public might get a real taste of just how tragically fragile the U.S. treasury market and the government has become.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
Oil/Gas
Somewhat to the countercyclical, WTI crude oil moved higher, closing out the week in New York at $65.19, with a peak on Friday of $66.34 before settling out. Friday's price was up sharply from last week's $62.36. With everybody from the Saudis to Russians to U.S. shale producers drilling full bore, this week's gains are probably going to be short-lived as there is no indication that there's any shortage of oil or distillates anywhere.
Gas prices dropped seven cents from last week, the national average now $3.10, according to Gasbuddy.com.
State-by-state numbers show California remaining on top, at $4.65 per gallon, followed closely by Washington ($4.56) and joined in the $4 club by Oregon ($4.19), though all three states showed moderating prices through the week. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.53) at a multi-month low, followed by Mississippi ($2.64) and Louisiana ($2.71).
The Northeast remained above $3.00, with Virginia ($2.93), West Virginia ($2.96), Ohio ($2.86) and Kentucky ($2.78) bucking the trend. Indiana ($2.12), Illinois ($3.38) and Michigan ($3.00) form a $3-plus bloc. From Wisconsin ($2.83), Minnesota ($2.95) and North Dakota ($2.87) south, all states are sub-$3.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 25 states, up four from last week, concentrated in the South and Midwest with Ohio, Minnesota, Florida, and Colorado dropping below the line. The entire Southeast, out to New Mexico ($2.80) is under $3.00 a gallon. Gas in next door neighbor New Mexico is $3.57, making border hops appealing to cost-conscious drivers.
Bitcoin
This week: $109,980.20
Last week: $115,734.60
2 weeks ago: $115,368.20
6 months ago: $84,261.42
One year ago: $65,848.43
Five years ago: $11,367.93
The Ponzi has continues at stall speed, taking a slight hit this week. In case of a swoon in stocks and margin calls, the money to cover is going to come from bitcoin, not gold or silver, because, while precious metals have been on a tear, bitcoin has lagged severely, because it's not money and actually is just a clever math construct. Funds will be selling off bitcoin holdings faster than racehorses at Del Mar.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 81.73; last week: 85.76
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80
Gold price 9/12: $3,680.70
Gold price 9/19: $3,719.40
Gold price 9/26: $3,789.80
Silver price 8/29: $40.75
Silver price 9/5: $41.51
Silver price 9/12: $42.68
Silver price 9/19: $43.37
Silver price 9/26: $46.37
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 46.30 | 58.50 | 51.66 | 49.48 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 48.00 | 58.95 | 53.52 | 53.49 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 3,898.77 | 4,040.69 | 3,956.08 | 3,933.82 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,873.95 | 3,947.82 | 3,916.97 | 3,923.85 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) remained raced to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $52.04, a massive gain of $3.21 cents from the September 21 price of $48.83 per troy ounce.
Gold and silver continued to move higher, with silver leading the way over the near term. Year-to-date, gold is up 44.23%; silver, 59.58% after this week's huge move higher.
Silver is obviously in the cat-bird seat, having been mercilessly suppressed for decades and especially the past 14 years, it's finally about to go vertical. The all-time highs are approaching, but, understand, that level above $49 is not inflation-adjusted, so this recent move is probably just the beginning. $50 is the obvious target and once it heads beyond that there is little to no resistance. Wiht financial advisors now putting clients into gold allocations of anywhere from five to 20% of their portfolios, prices are going in one direction only and silver, the choice of speculators, will likely lead. $60, $80, and eventually triple-digit silver is no longer pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking, but quickly becoming a reality. The gold:silver ratio of 81.73 this week, down from highs above 100 earlier this year is still complete fiction. All indications are for a steep decline in the ratio as silver's value propositions and relationship to gold are re-discovered.
According to investopedia:
For hundreds of years, the gold-silver ratio did not fluctuate much. The ratio was fixed by governments to keep their official currencies stable.The Roman Empire officially set the ratio at 12:1. In medieval Europe, it fell to 9.4:1 in 1350 but climbed back to 12:1 in the 1450s. The U.S. government fixed the ratio at 15:1 with the Coinage Act of 1792. It has only been at these obscene levels for the last 120 years or so.
Prepare to say goodbye to the COMEX and the London price fix. While they'll continue to operate, those old school pricing mechanisms are being gradually overtaken by honest price-setters with settlements in physical metal in Shanghai and soon, St. Petersburg and Dubai, as the West gives away authority to BRICS-related entities. Gold is already at record-high prices everywhere in the world. Silver will break through $50 an ounce soon enough, quite possibly by the end of the year. If silver reaches $50 before January 1, 2026, there's every possibility for $60 over the next year, as that would amount to a mere 20% gain.
WEEKEND WRAP
Keep some powder dry and buy protection. Puts and bullets are preferred.
At the Close, Friday, September 26, 2025:
Dow: 46,247.29, +299.97 (+0.65%)
NASDAQ: 22,484.07, +99.37 (+0.44%)
S&P 500: 6,643.70, +38.98 (+0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 21,477.51, +140.52 (+0.66%)
For The Week:
Dow: -67.08 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ: -147.41 (-0.65%)
S&P 500: -20.66 (-0.31%)
NYSE Composite: -16.46 (-0.08%)
Dow Transports: +119.01 (+0.77%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment