Just guessing, but Tuesday might be ripe for some profit taking. After last week's Thursday meltdown, stocks have rallied on renewed prospects for a FOMC rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting. While that's jolly good for Wall Street, it sounds just a bit inflationary for the rest of us regular folks. Heck, even bitcoin is "off the lows", which, for CNBC enthusiasts, is cause for celebration.
Nonetheless, President Trump says America is the "hottest" country on the planet, which has worried some of the leftover climate change complainers. Still, he's probably right about America being hot, because, if you touch it, you're likely to get burned.
From the "can't make this stuff up" department (courtesy of trusted news source, Yahoo! Finance):
US retail sales slowed in September as investors got the first official glimpse of consumer spending in two months on Tuesday morning after the government shutdown halted a wide swath of economic data.
Headline retail sales climbed 0.2% in September, below economists' expectations of a 0.4% month-over-month increase. By comparison, sales rose 0.6% in August, according to Census Bureau data.
The control group, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, decreased 0.1% following a 0.6% gain in August. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a 0.3% rise.
Sales excluding autos rose 0.3% from August to September, while sales excluding autos and gas increased 0.1%.
The report arrives at the start of a crucial holiday shopping season and carries added weight as investors and policymakers continue to operate without an official read on third-quarter GDP, even with the shutdown now over.
On Monday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced it has canceled the advance Q3 GDP estimate and will reschedule both the second estimate and preliminary corporate profits, which were slated for release on Nov. 26.
So, this translates thusly: Many people are broke. They were broke in September and more broke in October (if that's even possible), so we, the government, who can't accept failure, aren't going to release October data. If we eventually do, it will be 100% fake.
Third quarter GDP was so bad, we shut down the government just so we wouldn't have to tell anybody. We, the government, want to keep all you peons, muppets, and cretins in the dark, while we, the enlightened class, profits. Conveniently, we will not release third quarter GDP estimate - which we have, by the way, because the third quarter ended in September - until after Christmas. So, go out and shop, spend up to your credit card limits on worthless trash to impress people you don't like. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Happy Holidays.
Signs that there's a bubble and a recession will soon follow:
One of your neighbors drives a more expensive car than you, even though he/she doesn't have a job. Your car is paid for; his/hers is on credit. Keep eyes peeled for repo man.
You tried out AI, were not overly impressed with the results, and thought, "they're spending how many hundreds of billions on this?"
One bitcoin is worth more than what you paid for your first home back in 1985.
Two strip steaks at the local supermarket cost $38.50.
The Starbucks near your office is empty.
There's more, but we're not allowed to tell you how bad it really is, but here's a hint: 50% of retail sales is being done by the top 10% of earners.
Only one more day until Thanksgiving (whew! a day off) and then the massive half-day rally for Black Friday!
Spend!
At the close, Monday, November 24, 2025:
Dow: 46,448.27, +202.86 (+0.44%)
NASDAQ: 22,872.01, +598.92 (+2.69%)
S&P 500: 6,705.12, +102.13 (+1.55%)
NYSE Composite: 21,271.60, +94.62 (+0.45%)
Look at it this way. Wall Street is a big circus, full of high-wire acts, dancing elephants, lion tamers, and trampoline gymnasts with a casino attached. Washington, D.C. is the clown show, led by the carnival barker on truth social.
On Wall Street, you buy your tickets, cotton candy, popcorn, and the rest. Washington doesn't move Wall Street. It's exactly the other way around. All the best grifters in the world are located in the capital. The real money is made behind the scenes, in back offices within skyscrapers and low-rise buildings in lower Manhattan and New Jersey.
In just the last two days of trading last week - Thursday and Friday - was witness to the complete fraud of AI investments (Thursday) and the comic cosmic power of the central bank (Friday), when New York Fed President John Williams, who was attending a conference sponsored by the central bank of Chile (really, Chile?) casually mentioned that interest rates could fall in the near term.
This wasn't an official speech by Williams, who just so happens to be a permanent voter and Vice Chairman of the FOMC, the committee that sets interest rate policy at the Fed. His remarks carried sufficient weight to boost markets on Friday, a counterweight to Thursday's massive selloff.
In Washington, Republican House member from Georgia, Marjorie Taylor Greene, a longtime Trump and MAGA supporter, abruptly resigned her seat after weeks of disagreements with President Trump.
In the dysfunction that is the U.S. federal government, political alliances are disregarded. Elected officials who stand up for Americans and against foreign entanglements are disposed of or "primaried." Those who support foreign governments and enthusiastically applaud leaders who commit crimes and genocide are elevated. That's just how the irrelevant clown show rolls.
Even with Friday's Fed-induced dead cat bounce, stocks were hit hard again this week, marking the third straight weekly decline on the NASDAQ, home to most of the speculative tech names.
Markets have been under siege since the government re-opened, and while that is probably merely coincidence, the effects are beginning to strike home. Just since November 12, the Dow has dropped 2,000 points, about four percent. The S&P is off nearly 300 points from its all-time high on October 29, and the NASDAQ is off by more than 1700 points since the end of October, a full seven percent decline.
With the holidays approaching, there's a split of opinion on whether stocks will regain the high ground or continue to fall for the remainder of the year. Increasingly, it appears to be the latter. Liquidity and the AI circular trading scheme continue to be the main issues in the market. The AI trade may have seen its top after Nvidia's results, under scrutiny, caused Thursday's massive decline. While there was some dip-buying on Friday, it was largely without conviction, and also came on the third Friday of the month, usually the largest options expiration date. Thus, whatever gains were made in the big tech names were probably the results of various options trades being closed out.
There doesn't seem to be a catalyst going forward, though the general mood of the markets during the holidays is upbeat, although that certainly wasn't the case in 2018, and similar issues could cause another waterfall event, as opposed to a Santa laus rally. Of course, there is the FOMC meeting on December 9-10 to consider. After Williams' suggestion the odds of another 25 basis point cut in December rose from around 33% to over 60%. If the Fed does not cut, markets will likely tank. There's always a way out for Wall Street, however. In this instance, howls of "oversold conditions" will be loud.
Prior to that, on Wednesday of next week, the PCE, the Fed's favored inflation gauge will be announced, which will have influence regarding inflation in the context of rate cuts.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Date
1 Mo
1.5 mo
2 Mo
3 Mo
4 Mo
6 Mo
1 Yr
10/17/2025
4.18
4.15
4.08
4.00
3.95
3.79
3.56
10/24/2025
4.11
4.06
4.02
3.93
3.89
3.76
3.58
10/31/2025
4.06
4.02
4.04
3.89
3.87
3.79
3.70
11/07/2025
4.01
3.96
3.98
3.92
3.83
3.76
3.63
11/14/2025
4.04
4.02
4.01
3.95
3.88
3.80
3.70
11/21/2025
4.03
4.01
4.00
3.90
3.84
3.75
3.62
Date
2 Yr
3 Yr
5 Yr
7 Yr
10 Yr
20 Yr
30 Yr
10/17/2025
3.46
3.47
3.59
3.78
4.02
4.58
4.60
10/24/2025
3.48
3.49
3.61
3.79
4.02
4.56
4.59
10/31/2025
3.60
3.60
3.71
3.89
4.11
4.65
4.67
11/07/2025
3.55
3.57
3.67
3.87
4.11
4.68
4.70
11/14/2025
3.62
3.61
3.74
3.92
4.14
4.73
4.74
11/21/2025
3.51
3.50
3.62
3.82
4.06
4.67
4.71
Spreads remain wide. Fed speakers are about to go into "quiet mode" prior to the next FOMC meeting, so there will be slight chance that they'll be leaking anything important. Otherwise, the treasury market is functioning, though there is crowding due to excessive issuance by the U.S. Treasury, with more than $1 trillion in refunding ongoing.
WTI crude closed out the week at $57.98, down sharply from last week's close of $59.81. The price of oil should continue to fall. There's slack demand and a huge glut, despite the "sanctions" on Russia, which do next-to-nothing.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump remained the same for now three straight weeks, $3.07, according to Gasbuddy.com. Gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and through winter.
California remains the priciest, at $4.60 per gallon, down six cents, followed by Washington ($4.17), up a penny on the week. Oregon ($3.77), was up four cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma checking in near the lowest price in about a year, $2.46. Mississippi is next at $2.53. Louisiana ($2.55), Tennessee ($2.60) and Texas ($2.63) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.80 with the exception of Florida ($3.11) up 20 cents from last week.
In the Northeast, prices were higher. Only New Hampshire ($2.94) was under $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.28) easily the highest. Vermont ($3.15) and New York ($3.14) were the next.
In the midwest region, Illinois ($3.24) and Michigan ($3.12) were the only states above $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.61) and Kansas ($2.67).
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 28 states, a gain of two from last week.
Bitcoin
This week: $87,373.34
Last week: $95,387.89
2 weeks ago: $103,678.70
6 months ago: $108,333.40
One year ago: $97,811.99
Five years ago: $17,734.38
Bitcoin fell to a low below $81,000 this week. The gains through Sunday morning is nothing but froth, occurring in thinly-traded hours, similar to how the gold and silver suppressors operate in the GLOBEX between midnight and early morning hours. There's really nothing there at all. Most people who bought bitcoin in the past year are losing money.
Nakamoto in Japanese means "Central" or middle. Satoshi in Japanese means "Intelligence" or wise. Draw your own conclusions.
Bitcoin and crypto is dead money at this point. Thank Wall Street for that.
Gold and silver were generally rangebound throughout the week. The ongoing struggle for price discovery continues between the futures and fix pricing mechanism of the Western COMEX and LBMA and the BRICS-focused Shanghai Gold Exchange in China and Russia's plans to begin trading in precious metals by the end of the year on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX), which will be open to traders from around the world.
Cracks in the Western-dominated markets have begun to show signs of cracking, with the recent shortfall of silver in London vaults and the impressive gains in both gold and silver over the past two years. Additionally, dealers continue to add high premia to precious metals. A recent offering by one prominent online dealer promoted one ounce silver at $7.95 over spot, pretty much aligning with Money Daily's SOSMBP.
There may be some impetus for gold and silver to rise this coming week, as nearby futures contracts expire.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
Item/Price
Low
High
Average
Median
1 oz silver coin:
54.00
65.00
57.85
57.00
1 oz silver bar:
51.00
64.95
58.33
59.01
1 oz gold coin:
4,206.00
4,481.95
4,303.16
4,287.24
1 oz gold bar:
4,232.64
4,380.84
4,291.48
4,281.10
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) made a modest gain for the week, to $58.05, up 51 cents from the November 16 price of $57.54 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add premia to, and depart from, spot and derivative markets.
WEEKEND WRAP
Next week is Thanksgiving and Black Friday, a half-day session which almost always is positive. This year should be no different. If you're looking for holiday cash, buy on Wednesday, sell on Friday, as that shortened session will be the last of November, so, in keeping with the holiday spirit, there is likely to be plenty of window dressing. The stock markets close at 1:00 pm ET, so don't sleep too late.
At the CLose, Friday, November 21, 2025:
Dow: 46,245.41, +493.15 (+1.08%)
NASDAQ: 22,273.08, +195.03 (+0.88%)
S&P 500: 6,602.99, +64.23 (+0.98%)
NYSE Composite: 21,176.98, +264.10 (+1.26%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
Following Thursday's massive meltdown, markets are getting ready for the second round of bubble bursting as tech stocks and the entire Wall Street facade is about to be deflated.
The post and article linked below is required reading for anybody who is serious about the future of finance and global markets.
This brilliant post on X - and the detailed article on substack, linked below - by Shanaka Anslem Perera tells what happened on Thursday when the entire U.S. stock market basically got flushed:
BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Just Collapsed
Last night at 4pm EST, something unprecedented happened. Nvidia stock rallied 5% on earnings, then crashed into negative territory within 18 hours. Wall Street algorithms detected what humans couldn’t: the numbers don’t… pic.twitter.com/uW4UL5eQ8F
The level of fraud exposed on Thursday is absolutely stunning and brings into play all aspects of the completely rigged U.S. and global trading markets. Money Daily has long been skeptical of bitcoin, crypto, and heavy-handed practices in the U.S. in particular, and Thursday's rout seems to point in that same general direction. Markets are controlled by big-monied interests and governments who wish to keep their populations satiated with an "all good" narrative.
Obvious to many thinking people, this kind of fake news leads to an eventual reckoning, which appears now to be underway in earnest.
Overnight and into the early morning hours in the U.S., bitcoin has continued to tank, hitting a low of $80,935, down another $6,000 from Thursday.
Even if Perera's claims are only partially true, the idea that U.S. markets ar free, fair, and functional is being severely tested and the trading reveals not just cracks in the facade, but deep holes in the $215 trillion black hole of the U.S. financial system.
If you're on the sidelines where you should be, sit back and enjoy the show. It's about to get very, very ugly.
At the Close, Thursday, November 20, 2025:
Dow: 45,752.26, -386.51 (-0.84%)
NASDAQ: 22,078.05, -486.18 (-2.15%)
S&P 500: 6,538.76, -103.40 (-1.56%)
NYSE Composite: 20,912.89, -255.39 (-1.21%)
Just as the demise of one company - think Xerox during the ascendancy of the internet or Eastman Kodak as digital photography emerged - would not take down the entire stock market, one company's success should not determine the upward direction of it either.
But, that's exactly what's being suggested by the fanbois and Wall Street snake-oil-selling slugs of Nvidia (NVDA), the company at the heart of the AI and Magnificent 7 trade. The company announced blowout third quarter results after the bell Wednesday, and analysts were falling over each other to praise the company and announce the end of the vicious selling that's been taking place the past few weeks.
It's utter rubbish. Nvidia may have had a great quarter and so too, the other members of the cool kids' Mag7 gang, but how's that going to affect Christmas shopping, the real estate market, pharma, manufacturing, etc.? Sure, there will be extra big bucks floating around lower Manhattan and Silicon Valley, but, overall, the company selling chips to other companies that use those chips - and also invest in each other - isn't going to lower the price of coffee, increase occupancy in commercial buildings, or make more people shop at Target. It's just not a one-to-one relationship.
None the less, Wall Street has found its darling and will run with it, until the whole AI story blows completely apart, because, in the end, AI is about as fake and gay as Hollywood. It robs content from real providers, distributes what is often erroneous information, and, as an added bonus, threatens to shrink the available job market globally.
That last part, about jobs, dovetails directly into the other big event this Thursday morning, the delayed release of September Non-farm payrolls by the BLS, which certainly will be fake, and maybe gay, so there's that to consider as well. September NFP was delayed because of the government shutdown, which may or may not have been fake, but absolutely was gay. The usual suspect experts are looking for job gains of 50,000 or so, which will satisfy the othr horde of cheerleaders, those hoping the Fed will lower interest rates when they meet on December 9 and 10.
It all adds up to a massive buy-the-dip "because we told you so" rally today and probably on Friday as well, because stocks always go up on Friday. It's in the exchange rules, or so it's said.
All this news has been beneficial to the crypto crowd as well, or so it seems, since bitcoin and the other popular fake and... well, you know, "coins" and tokens and their associated ETFs and other derivatives were boosted on the Nvidia news. Bitcoin galloped off lows below $89,000 to as high as $92,777, though it has pulled back a bit since then.
And, apparently, AI and chip-world is bad for precious metals, though that's hardly a surprise, since any kind of news, good or bad, seems to be bad for gold and silver.
Yes, this is cynicism writ large. And, yes, Money Daily doesn't care.
At 8:30 am ET the BLS released September Non-farm Payrolls, which showed job gains of 119,000 for the month. The unemployment rate jumped to its highest in three years, at 4.4%.
For what it's worth, Nvidia (NVDA) was 5.46% higher in pre-market trading.
Just prior to the BLS NFP release, Dow futures: +257; NASDAQ futures: +457; S&P futures: +81.50.
Just after the release: Dow futures: +365; NASDAQ futures: +508; S&P futures: +100.
So, a nice boost. Strap yourself in. The takeoff is likely to be jarring.
At the Close, Wednesday, November 19, 2025:
Dow: 46,138.77, +47.03 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 22,564.23, +131.38 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: 6,642.16, +24.84 (+0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 21,168.28, -4.32 (-0.02%)
As market participants anticipate solid earnings from Nvidia after the close Wednesday, carnage in bitcoin continues, with the favorite coin dropping to just above 90,000 overnight before bouncing back early morning to just below 92,000. On Tuesday, bitcoin fell to as low as $89,549.
Bitcoin isn't the only asset (if one can call it that) under pressure. The major averages were rocked again on Tuesday, the fourth straight decline for the Dow and S&P, and the fourth in the past five session for the NASDAQ, which popped 30 points on Friday.
From all appearances, not everybody is sold on tech. Beyond the bitcoin breakdown, the AI investment carousel is raising eyebrows across the investment world, as companies involved in the great hyperscaling race are found to be investing capital in each other, raising stock prices for all. Nvidia has investments in many of its own customers, and those customers - including names like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft - and have invested in Nvidia and other companies like Tuesday's revelation of a partnership in Anthropic.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella mentioned the quiet part out loud, saying, “We will use Anthropic models, they will use our infrastructure, and we’ll go to market together.”
Tech companies investing money in each other as they buy goods and services from the same, evokes claims of interlocking directorships from the 70s and 80s, when high-ranking executives and CEOs sat on each others boards of directors, creating a collusion of interests.
Considering the dull nature of regulation and oversight by the SEC and other bodies charged with keeping markets "fair and free", the circular carousel of investments is likely to continue unchecked until an ultimate disaster strikes one and all.
Before teeing up Nvidia's earnings, the market was treated to a trio of retailers announcing thrid quarter earnings. Two of them, TJX Companies (TJX), owners of Marshall's and TJ Maxx stores, and home improvement giant, Lowe's (LOW) delivered reports that exceeded expectations. On the troubling side, Target (TGT), which has been under pressure for the better part of the past five years, delivered distressing numbers once again.
Roughly, Target showed:
Net sales: -1.5% year over year
Gross profit margin: 28.2% vs. 28.3% a year ago
Diluted earnings per share: -3.9% year over year to $1.78, vs. estimate of $1.73
Comparable sales: -2.7% year over year, vs. +0.3% estimate
While the overall numbers were not absolutely brutal, the company's forecast for the holiday season and beyond was Grinch and Scrooge-worthy. "Guests are choiceful, stretching budgets and prioritizing value. They're spending where it matters most, especially in food, essentials, and beauty," Target chief commercial officer Rick Gomez said.
Target shares are down three to four percent in pre-market trading. The stock hit a high of 261 in July, 2021 and will likely open trading on Wednesday at 85 to 86.
Elsewhere, gold and silver were bid up overnight, with gold topping out at $4,120 and silver above $52 per ounce. WTI crude oil dropped below $59/barrel just after 8:00 am ET.
As earnings reports dwindle, Nvidia is one of the last few that will have real market impact. Stocks will need another catalyst moving forward through the holiday season, which is predicted to be somewhat choppy. There's still lots of money sloshing around, though at the lower end of the economic ladder, rents, food, and higher prices due to tariffs are reasons for concern.
Stocks seem to have crested and a technical correction may be near at hand. A recession is almost certain in early 2026.
At the Close, Tuesday, November 18, 2025:
Dow: 46,091.74, -498.50 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 22,432.85, -275.23 (-1.21%)
S&P 500: 6,617.32, -55.09 (-0.83%)
NYSE Composite: 21,172.59, -40.82 (-0.19%)
Posts
