The company reported diluted earnings per share of $4.63, compared to $5.07 in the third quarter and $4.81 in the same period a year ago. From a bottom line perspective, it's clear that business is going in reverse at the venerable ship of state with the "fortress balance sheet." EPS estimates were largely in a range of $4.90-5.00. This constitutes a very big miss and a sets a poor tone for earnings season, just now beginning.
Further on, as one delves deeper into the company’s numbers, the declines in gross and net income indicate a severe decline that cannot be attributed to the 43-day government shutdown from October 1 into November, but to underlying factors stemming primarily from consumer spending trends.
The company breaks down their results into sections, though it is within Consumer & Community Banking (CCB) that most of the financial damage can be seen. Net income was $3.6 billion, down 9% from the fourth quarter of 2024, and down 27% from the prior quarter.
Company-wide, provision for credit losses was $4.7 billion. Net charge-offs were $2.5 billion, up $150 million, predominantly driven by Wholesale. The net reserve build was $2.1 billion, reflecting a $2.2 billion reserve established for the forward purchase commitment of the Apple credit card portfolio. In the prior year, the provision was $2.6 billion, net charge-offs were $2.4
billion and the net reserve build was $267 million.
Net revenue of $46,767 billion, was down from $47,120 billion in the third quarter, but up 7% from $43,738 billion in the 2024 fourth quarter, rouhgly in-line with inflation, which means the company was mostly treading water for all of 2025. They are losing share and money is fleeing from their credit card business, just as they take on the Apple Card portfolio, taken over from management by Goldman Sachs. The $2.2 billion reserve established just for that portfolio is stunning, given that Apple customers are widely regarded to be fiscally prudent. The fact that Goldman sought to unload the unit is indicating the opposite. Expect more write-downs when JPM issues first quarter results in April.
JP Morgan's results reflect similarities in other U.S. large-cap companies, which, while they routinely beat estimates, they fall short on either y-o-y or prior quarter earnings, the straightaway implication that the business is, not growing, but rather, contracting. Nonetheless, stocks continue to rise. The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) finished Monday at 41.01, a new interim high, second only to the record 44.19 of December 1999, just prior to the dotcom bust.
On Monday, stocks took the usual path of least resistance, starting lower and ending higher. The Dow Jones Industrials erased an opening loss of more than 400 points to close 89 higher. The S&P and NASDAQ followed similar paths, though overall, trading was muted.
One might reasonably expect a wave of tax-related selling in profitable names, given that any gains taken now won't need to be reported until April 2027, generating a very solid free cash flow. If markets sense weakness, tax-related selling will likely exacerbate losses. JPM's benchmark report is not setting a very bullish precedent.
Gold and silver started off the week with a bang, both at record highs. Gold closed out Monday at $4585.89; silver finished at $83.94 an ounce. Both are ripping higher in the aftermath of the CPI release. Gold, $4609.00; Silver, $87.57.
The BLS released a statement at 8:30 am ET:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
On that release, stock futures initially spiked higher off earlier lows, but are quickly retreating as the opening bell approaches.
Things might get a bit dicey today and for the rest of the week and earnings season, especially, in addition to somewhat dour economic tones, President Trump is amping up aggression aimed at Iran. His continued semi-psychotic actions adding to the uncertainty and unease.
At the Close, Monday, January 12, 2026:
Dow: 49,590.20, +86.10 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 23,733.90, +62.60 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 6,977.27, +10.99 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 22,695.93, +104.23 (+0.46%)
Anybody seeking to formulate a coherent investing profile for 2016 is facing an uphill battle. There are so many variables to consider that affect different sectors in different ways that allocation of capital becomes a monumental consideration. Available options range from wide diversification into various asset classes to smaller positions and an emphasis on cash, in order to take advantage of opportunities that may present themselves as events unfold. There is also an argument in favor of staying put, keeping one's portfolio exactly as it is until the first or second week of February after most of the major companies have presented fourth quarter and full year earnings, the first FOMC meeting of 2026, and the first estimate of fourth quarter 2025 GDP.
To get an idea of what is guiding Wall Street and other private analysts, here is a brief look at some of the larger issues, many of which overlap:
President Trump: Judging by the proposals and actions taken in the first year of his second presidency, there appears to be little long-term planning in this administration. Closing the southern border to illegal immigrants has been the one major positive development. Deportations appear to be focused on criminal elements rather than the mass outflow promised during the election campaign. ICE faces protests and a public relations nightmare everywhere it attempts enforcement.
Tariffs have so far resulted in marginal additional revenues to the government. In 2025, estimates range from $261 billion to $331 billion were collected, essentially from April through December, 9 months. That doesn't amount to much in terms of the $6.8 in spending for fiscal year 2026 (October 1, 2025 - September 30, 2026) and a $2 trillion deficit. Whatever the tariff revenue will be for the full fiscal year, it is unlikely to be more than $35 billion a month, or $410 billion for the 12 months, which would cover about six percent of government outlays. Thus, tariffs are not a panacea.
The Venezuelan escapade of recent fame appears to be a long shot in terms of the U.S. extracting oil and profiting from it. The president met with oil company executives on Friday, and the general tone was not encouraging. Much of Venezuela's oil infrastructure is aged or broken and huge investments would need to be made to increase production from current levels of less than one million barrels a day, a significant decline from the peak of 3.5 million barrels a day in the 1970s. Oil executives cited past nationalizations and security as major stumbling blocks to re-investing in Venezuela. The naval blockade is tying up 20% of America's naval fleet and boots on the ground is probably not a viable long-term option. In addition, getting the oil flows improving would likely take two to three years.
What Trump may have accomplished was cutting off the oil supply from Venezuela to Iran, China, and Russia. While that may do some damage to their economies, it doesn't enhance U.S. prospects very much. Besides, with the current oil glut, adding more supply would lower the price of crude, another negative to oil executives. Shale producers are already complaining.
President Trump has also issued threats to other South American countries, specifically, Columbia and Mexico. These seem to be more bluster than substance. Columbia has already called the president's bluff. Military strikes against Mexican cartels are unlikely, especially since the CIA is deeply entrenched in drug trafficking, as Ben Norton points out in a recent explosive expose on his Geopolitical Economy Report:
Trump's continued posturing toward Greenland has raised ire in Europe, with the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and others speaking out against U.S. intervention. As it is, the U.S. already has agreements and military in place. It would appear that negotiating for access to the supposed enormous supply of critical materials locked beneath the ice would be preferable to military action.
Trump, while he campaigned as the "peace president", has been nothing ot the sort. He's taken military actions against Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Yeman, and Nigeria in just his first year in office.
On Friday, Trump posted on Trusth Social that he wanted credit card interest rates capped at 10%. This amounts to either gaslighting or vote buying, as it would take congressional legislation, or at least revision of the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 (DIDMCA), which effectively allowed nationally-chartered banks and other financial institutions to bypass state usuury laws. While there has been some rumblings in congress on the issue, the banks, credit card companies and even credit unions are opposed to the idea.
In part, the president's post says, “AFFORDABILITY! Effective January 20, 2026, I, as President of the United States, am calling for a one year cap on Credit Card Interest Rates of 10%,” to which the Bank Policy Institute, American Bankers Association, Consumer Bankers Association, Financial Services Forum and Independent Community Bankers of America responded in a joint statement:
“We share the President’s goal of helping Americans access more affordable credit. At the same time, evidence shows that a 10% interest rate cap would reduce credit availability and be devastating for millions of American families and small business owners who rely on and value their credit cards, the very consumers this proposal intends to help. If enacted, this cap would only drive consumers toward less regulated, more costly alternatives. We look forward to working with the administration to ensure Americans have access to the credit they need.”
These companies make billions in revenue from interest rates of 20-30% or more, and they're not about to give that up. The president's bold proposal appears to be a dead-ender. The banking lobby's opposition to what used to be known as "usury" also points up how dependent the U.S. is on debt, not just at the government and corporate levels, but right down to the dinner tables of middle and lower class Americans.
President Trump also committed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgages or mortgage-backed securities, effectively restating QE without the Fed's involvement. In May, the president will have his own hand-picked chairman at the Fed with the tacit instruction to lower the federal funds rate. While that may be a boost to business in general terms, it is also inflationary, though the effects won't be evident for three to six months, coincidentally, after the midterms.
In a nutshell, much of Trump's policy decisions are based upon a need to keep majorities in the House and Senate, because without them, he is certain to be impeached. Current policy is based wholly on politics, not what would benefit the country most as promised by his "America First" campaign pledge.
Ukraine: The peace plans that have been circulation for months have no weight at all since they've been roundly rejected by Russia in advance. The E.U., U.K., and U.S. are continuing their charade in Ukraine for as long as possible mostly because admitting or accepting defeat would expose their ill-conceived plans of regime change (getting rid of Putin) and destroy their governments. The damage has already been done, as most leaders in the West have approval ratings in the teens and little public support. U.S. president Trump is doing a little better at 44.1%.
Gaza, Israel, and the Middle East: This all remains a tinderbox. U.S. support for Israel remains strong, despite the tenuous cease fire in Gaza and tensions all around, in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and further east to Somalia and Yemen. Iran is in its third week of widespread anti-government protests, some of which have turned violent. U.S. policy varies between supporting the protesters and bombing the country again for restarting its nuclear program. There's no telling how this will play out long term or even short term.
Dollar Hegemony and BRICS The U.S. dollar continues to lose influence as the world's reserve currency. BRICS have fully integrated bi-lateral and multi-lateral trade amongst themselves and associated countries, bypassing the dollar. Gold emerged as the top holding of central banks in 2025, surpassing U.S. treasuries, a trend that is accelerating.
U.S. Domestic Issues: Wealth disparity between the top 10% and everybody else has reached historic proportions, fueling anger and rage within the middle and lower classes. Widespread disagreement on ICE actions and deportations in general has led to more division in the general population. Race, denial of free speech, and affordability of everything from food to housing is sending a message of desperation rather than prosperity. Trump's tax cuts will help, with higher refunds to many come March, April, and May, if the IRS doesn't fail again to process returns in a timely manner. These are some of the major issues in America, keeping the country deeply divided and on edge. The rise of socialism and the waste and fraud in government are also turning the screws on the American psyche. The rhetoric from Washington D.C. and the mainstream media will likely grow louder and more divisive as the November midterms approach.
The U.S. House of Representatives just passed a bill calling for a three-year extension of Obamacare subsidies, the passage of which makes the October government shutdown look more and more like a planned event by both parties. Though approval in the Senate is being characterized as with tenuous support, there's little doubt that they'll ride the gravy train of votes, graft, and kickbacks from lobbyists. The entire congress is only in it for the money and the votes.
Corporate Earnings and the General Economy: There's a mixed message emerging between Wall Street and Main Street that's been brewing since the GFC in 2008 and the covid experience of 2020. Corporations and big business seem to be thriving while small business is on the decline with bankruptcies rising, costs and regulations strangling entrepreneurship. Wall Street firms seem to be reaping the benefits of a growing economy while the country as a whole seems to be slipping into recession. The most recent Non-Farm Payrolls from December were hardly encouraging. The average monthly gain in employment was 49,000, a significant decline from 2024, which came in at 168,000 on average per month.
This raises two questions: 1) is AI responsible for employment scarcity?; 2) are companies actually improving, or are they just beating lowered estimates, which appears to be the case for many publicly-held companies. Stock buybacks also help companies "make their numbers", so is the U.S. expanding or are companies playing accounting tricks which Wall Street knows about but won't admit out loud?
The above reflections are just part of the complex decisions facing investors as 2026 gets underway. It is nowhere near a full accounting of the issues that need to be addressed.
Stocks
Stocks started out the first full week of trading with the usual bubble bang. Even a slowing labor market was seen as good news. No reason to move anywhere but "all in" it seems. All of the major indices were up more than 1.5% for the week.
After the BLS reported December job gains fo 50,000 and revised October was down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and November down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000, Wall Street became keenly aware of the employment figures, given they will factor into the Fed's thinking concerning rate movement at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for January 27-28. That gave some life to markets on Friday, but not enough to guarantee another leg higher in weeks ahead.
The first taste of 2025 fourth quarter earnings will present itself in the week ahead. Among the companies worth noting delivering results are the following:
Tuesday: (before open) Bank of New York Mellon (BK), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Delta Airlines
Wednesday: (before open) Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Infosys (INFY); (after close) RF Industries (RFIL)
Thursday: (before open) Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), First Horizon (FHN), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM); (after close) J.B. Hunt (JBHT)
Friday: (before open) State Street (STT); M&T Bank (MTB), Regions Financial (RF), PNC (PNC)
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Date
1 Mo
1.5 mo
2 Mo
3 Mo
4 Mo
6 Mo
1 Yr
12/05/2025
3.82
3.78
3.77
3.71
3.73
3.68
3.61
12/12/2025
3.76
3.75
3.75
3.63
3.64
3.58
3.54
12/19/2025
3.71
3.71
3.72
3.62
3.64
3.60
3.51
12/26/2025
3.70
3.69
3.72
3.64
3.66
3.58
3.49
01/02/2026
3.72
3.71
3.66
3.65
3.62
3.58
3.47
01/09/2026
3.70
3.68
3.63
3.62
3.62
3.57
3.52
Date
2 Yr
3 Yr
5 Yr
7 Yr
10 Yr
20 Yr
30 Yr
12/05/2025
3.56
3.59
3.72
3.90
4.14
4.75
4.79
12/12/2025
3.52
3.58
3.75
3.95
4.19
4.82
4.85
12/19/2025
3.48
3.53
3.70
3.91
4.16
4.77
4.82
12/26/2025
3.46
3.54
3.68
3.89
4.14
4.76
4.81
01/02/2026
3.47
3.55
3.74
3.95
4.19
4.81
4.86
01/09/2026
3.54
3.59
3.75
3.95
4.18
4.76
4.82
Spreads remain at elevated levels and the key yields are gradually trending higher. It's far too early in the new year to discern any real trends for interest rates, though shorter durations continue to trend toward the upper end. Use of the Fed's emergency repo facility has raised some red flags, but nobody is willing to panic just yet. Give it some time, at least until after the FOMC meeting in two weeks. There are more cockroaches.
WTI crude closed out the week at $58.62, more than a dollar higher than last week's $57.33. The Venezuela effect will likely soon fade, as oil execs widely expressed little interest in spending resources to get the aging infrastructure rebuilt. As time marches on, there may be a print in the $40s. There's still a great deal of uncertainty.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump dropped another two cents, to $2.76, the lowest price in roughly five years, according to Gasbuddy.com. Given the current state of play, gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and possibly more rapidly, considering Venezuela and the continued global glut.
California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, down another four cents at $4.19 per gallon, that figure down substantially from six months and a year ago. Washington ($3.78) is down another two cents, leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.30), fell another seven cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma holding at $2.17, a multi-year low. All of the Southeast states are below $2.66, including Florida.
In the Northeast, prices continue to decline. Only Vermont ($3.00) and Pennsylvania ($3.02) are at or above $3.00. New York dropped to $2.98.
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($2.86) dropped another penny and remains below $3.00 for a fourth consecutive week. At the low end were Colorado ($2.31), Kansas ($2.37), and Missouri ($2.42).
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 42 states, one more than last week and up 15 over the past five weeks. Arizona and New York both fell below the $3.00 threshold. Not including Alaska and Hawaii, there are just six states with gas prices above $3.00 and just one, California, over $4.00.
Bitcoin
This week: $90,633.20
Last week: $91,306.05
2 weeks ago: $87,661.04
6 months ago: $117,568.80
One year ago: $94,559.12
Five years ago: $36,022.09
For now, bitcoin remains stuck in a range between 87,000 and 94,000, which seems unlikely to change. The overall bitcoin downtrend, one that many analysts are saying could reach as low as $50,000 or $30,000 in 2026, appears to be in place with most other "coins" also wavering. One prominent voice has called for a bottom around $10,000, though that would imply an extreme number of beached whales and distress elsewhere outside of crypto.
What's not to like for gold and silver holders? Even with the CME raising margin requirements twice in the last week of December and the widespread fear mongering that the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index would send prices for precious metals into the tank, both gold and silver approached all-time highs by week's end. While the "rebalancing act" will continue through Thursday of the week ahead, the overall effect will be nullified by the huge institutional buying interest and the idea that most experienced traders already priced in Bloomberg's nonsense.
Both metals should continue to rally through 2026 and probably beyond, until something serious breaks, like the global economy.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
Item/Price
Low
High
Average
Median
1 oz silver coin:
80.00
92.00
87.16
87.45
1 oz silver bar:
80.00
91.21
87.36
88.19
1 oz gold coin:
4,674.30
4,959.11
4,802.80
4,814.46
1 oz gold bar:
4,686.89
4,792.94
4,725.20
4,714.75
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) ramped higher, to $87.54, a gain of $4.21 from the January 4 price of $83.33 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets.
WEEKEND WRAP
The Trend is often your friend. At this juncture, if you're up, hold the line. If you're down, trim the losers.
At the Close, Friday, January 9, 2025:
Dow: 49,504.07, +237.96 (+0.48%)
NASDAQ: 23,671.35, +191.33 (+0.81%)
S&P 500: 6,966.28, +44.82 (+0.65%)
NYSE Composite: 22,591.73, +106.08 (+0.47%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
Editor's Note: While preparing this report, Money Daily suffered a power outage from approximately 8:45 an to 9:25 am. We apologize for the delay. - FR
While the world sorts out the latest escapades of runaway rogue U.S. foreign piracy policy, a few items to consider:
White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt told reporters, "We’re continuing to be in close coordination with the interim [Venezuelan] authorities, their decisions are going to continue to be dictated by the United States of America."
Now, maybe that was a poor choice of words, because "dictating" is what dictators do, or maybe Ms. Leavitt had a purpose. Either way, it paints the U.S. as a hegemonic bully and President Trump as a dictator, ruling by dictate rather than legislation, otherwise known by that quaint, old term, "the rule of law." For all intents and purposed, the rule of law has been given the heave-ho.
Seizing Russian tankers, or, for that matter, the assets of any country, anywhere, at any time, is not going to endear those whose assets are seized, sanctioned, frozen, or stolen to the use of the U.S. dollar in international trade. The BRICS and associated countries have almost completely ditched the dollar, preferring bilateral trade deals settled in native currencies, yuan, gold, other commodities, the "unit", or a combination of such. De-dollarization is proceeding wiht alacrity. The sanctions and anti-trade policies of the U.S., U.K., and E.U, are accelerating the process, rather than impeding it.
The government was crowing about the U.S. trade deficit falling to its lowest level in 16 years, from $48.1 billion in September to $29.4 billion in October. Imports fell by 3.2% while exports rose by 2.6%, according to the BEA. The main driver of increased exports was gold, that had come into the U.S. previously, in response to potential tariffs, that was shipped back in October when policies were clarified. Fewer imports of pharmaceuticals, primarily from China, drove the numbers down. While some economists were blaring about how this will have a positive effect on fourth quarter GDP, taking a longer view suggests that the effect of tariffs is causing fewer imports, and, on the opposite end, some countries are refusing exports from the U.S.. The overall effect is simply a general decline in international trade with the United States, a prospect the administration failed to anticipate.
While cutting the trade deficit may be a short term positive development, it's likely that October's numbers are an aberration and what can be expected from here on out, until tariffs are lifted or ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court (a decision is expected by the end of January at the latest) is a continued decline of imports and exports, which make the entire tariff regime somewhat of a moot point. Chalk it up to inexperience.
At 8:30 am ET, the BLS delivered the December Non-farm payroll numbers, this, the first on-time delivery of the data since September. What the agency noted for inaccuracy at all times found was little change. Their terse statement read thus:
Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs.
The report also noted that "payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025 (an average monthly gain of 49,000), less than the increase of 2.0 million in 2024 (an average monthly gain of 168,000)." In plain English, the labor market is in severe decline.
And, of course, there were revisions: "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 68,000, from
-105,000 to -173,000, and the change for November was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 76,000 lower than previously reported."
Stock futures rose, then fell on the release. Gold and silver both gained. For whatever reason, WTI crude futures spiked about a buck, to nearly $59, despite the president explicitly stating that oil prices would decline. More inexperience.
One final note. Much has been noted the past few days about the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and how this would have a negative impact on the price of gold and silver, and other commodities that have shown strong gains over the past year. It's a complete canard, a rallying cry for the COMEX riggers to keep the U.S. dollar dominant at a time in which it is gyrating toward death throes. It is already underway and the best they've been able to do is keep silver from spiking above $80 and gold above $4,500.
There's certain to be some forced selling, which the Chinese industrialists will immediately buy. The price of gold, silver, copper aluminum are already well upon a trajectory signaling a global resource war and Bloomberg's vain attempts to influence the trend should be dealt with as anything emanating from the Bloomberg news desk is: ignore it. At worst, for a month or less, gold and silver won't rise as quickly as they did in 2025. The rebalancing began on January 8 (yesterday) and will be complete on January 14 (next Thursday). It is already underway with little material impact. The most astute and experienced traders have already priced in any effect it may have.
Gold is higher today, at $4,482, as is silver, $79.01.
The U.S. economy and its leadership is in tatters and is unlikely to be revived by the heavily-promoted AI buildout. The U.S. is light years behind China in terms of long range economic development and is losing ground to India and Russia and to other emerging market nations aligned with the BRICS.
Do not be fooled by serial liars and promoters of false narratives.
Considering the events of the past few days, in particular, the Venezuelan experience and the boarding and seizure of a Russian tanker, along with the excessive rhetorical expressions coming out of official Washington, it's difficult to assess the political calculations and ramifications, making economic decisions even more dicey than usual.
At times such as these, wherein the impulse to panic is prevalent, it's usually best to take a deep breath, try to ascertain exactly what's happening, and just watch as events unfold. When some direction can be formulated, then, perhaps, is time for action, be that doubling down on investments, rotating out of some sectors and into others, rethinking allocations or standing pat. These are decisions individuals must make using their own judgement, taking into account time horizons, differences of opinions, and one's own financial position.
Currently, and, unfortunately, Money Daily is unable to formulate any coherent strategy that aligns with what appears to be radical actions on the part of the U.S. government that are impacting just about everything on the planet. While it appears that President Trump is hell-bent on imposing the will and military might on primarily the Western Hemisphere, one cannot discount the effect on Europe, Asia, Africa, the Middle East and especially the BRICS and countries aligned with them. For outward appearances, it can partially be assumed that the ouster of Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela effectively cut off Russian and Chinese access to at least that country's oil, and likely most of its natural resources. The world is in the very early stages of a monumental shift, making the wait-and-see attitude the most prudent form of action, or, as the case may be, inaction.
There is certain to be blowback on various fronts, but making an accurate assessment of how conditions change or play out over the next weeks and months is a difficult undertaking of which few will eventually be proven correct. The United States does not act in a vacuum. Its actions affect the entire world, and, thus, nobody can be certain to a high degree of confidence where this is all going.
The most immediate effects have been, so far, engineered losses on primarily silver and bitcoin. Spot silver plateaued around $82.50 late Tuesday and since has been under assault, the price declining to as low as $74.43 as of this writing. Bitcoin, after catapulting to $94,747 on Monday, has fallen to below $90,000. These two "alternatives" to fiat dollars have taken on similar pathways, a condition that appears to be by design. Gold has declined, though not as rapidly or obviously as the other two financial assets. It peaked just below $4,500 an ounce, which constitutes obvious resistance, but has fallen by lss than $100, a pittance, by comparison.
Stocks may be experiencing some short-term panic due to overbought conditions. With the level of uncertainty prevailing, one cannot fault investors for taking money off the table or moving to more defensive positions. After all, the major averages are either at or very close to all-time highs. It would be somewhat amazing if they continued to climb during the turbulence that is just beginning to be played out.
Approaching the open for stocks in the U.S., futures are lower across the board, with the Dow leading, down 180 points. The S&P is down nine and the NASDAQ is lower by 45 points.
WTI crude oil is a focal point, being that the recent geo-political scene has crude at its center. While it's up a dollar this morning, the high price of $57.15 seems indicative of merely being noise rather than signal. The jury on oil, and, likely, most other tradable assets, remains out.
Overlaying everything is the Supreme Court ruling on the constitutionality of Trump's tariffs which may come to fore as early as tomorrow, making nay kind of speculative activity fraught with danger. Next week, earnings begin to roll out, beginning with the big banks, which will only add to the confusion.
Patience is about the only advisable strategy that makes sense for now.
At the Close, Wednesday, January 7, 2026:
Dow: 48,996.08, -466.00 (-0.94%)
NASDAQ: 23,584.28, +37.10 (+0.16%)
S&P 500: 6,920.93, -23.89 (-0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 22,341.23, -229.59 (-1.02%)
Resistance is futile. It's also non-existent in a market run by BlackRock and Vanguard.
Barring any unforeseen shocks - and maybe even in spite of them - stocks are set to soar to incredible heights over the next three to six months, as the U.S. imperial locomotive chugs along, undeterred by rules, laws, or national boundaries. The lengths the U.S. government is willing to go to secure resources and keep the dollar the world's reserve currency have no limits.
There is no country either willing or capable of stopping the aggressive nature of the newly-branded "Donroe Doctrine", re-establishing the United States as the sole dominating power in the Western Hemisphere. If the U.S. needs oil, it takes it from Venezuela. Silver, Peru and Mexico have plenty, the U.S. will take its share. Other natural resources, such as rare earth minerals and foodstuffs will be taken as needed, bargained off to the largest U.S. corporations with tacit approval, and, as has already become standard practice, either government financing or direct participation via equity ownership.
The policies being played out by the Trump administration absolutely disregard any international law or accepted behaviors. America has become the backyard bully and they will take what they need. This much has been made clear by actions in Venezuela and threats against Mexico, Columbia, Canada, Cuba, and Greenland.
If it's in the Western Hemisphere and we want it, we will take it. That's the message from the White House.
The effect this kind of imperial mercantilism has on stocks should be nothing short of fantastic. Goods, services, raw materials, energy, strategic metals and more will flow to U.S. shores, producing prosperity for the American people. That's at least the narrative for now. The reality is that Washington D.C. insiders and Wall Street speculators will gorge themselves on treasures and rising stock prices. Inflation, which will be aided by whomever the president chooses as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, may actually stabilize aorund three to five percent annually, as increased access to goods are offset by rising wages and lower interest rates.
The Trump administration truly doesn't worry about inflation as a deterrent to winning the midterm elections, which is part of the plan. They can rely uon political operatives embedded within agencies and the captured news media to dummy up the numbers enough to satiate any remnants of skeptical public.
The Dow Jones Industrials set a new record high close on Tuesday, as did the Transportation Average, confirming the bull market and primary trend, a major signal for bulls. From this point, already at record highs, there is no limit. One might as well throw darts at the stocks listed in the Wall Street Journal because the buying will be frantic, extreme, and not governed by any kind of discipline. Everything is going up. The economy and the re-election of a Republican majority in congress depends on it.
Outside the United States, there is growing concern that the world's major superpower may take its own hubris to heart, expanding its snatch and grab tactics to areas outside their sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere. China, Russia, and India in particular will monitor developments closely even as they continue their plans for a multi-polar global environment and their own brands of mercantilism, backed by gold and resources.
The big game is reaching a new level in 2026, but, if there's anything that looks like a major slam dunk, it's that stocks will see huge gains for most of the year. There's a rotation into energy, industrials, raw materials, health care, and military sectors that figure to perform the best.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 6, 2026:
Dow: 49,462.08, +484.88 (+0.99%)
NASDAQ: 23,547.17, +151.37 (+0.65%)
S&P 500: 6,944.82, +42.77 (+0.62%)
NYSE Composite: 22,570.82 +138.72 (+0.62%)
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