Gold, Silver Soar Overnight; BLS Reports July Job Losses of 23,000; Wall Street Thrilled with Weakening Economy

Taking a breather in advance of Friday's July Non-farm Payroll data, stocks turned modestly to the downside, the Dow being the most affected, having made outsized moves higher lately.

Overnight, stock futures made small gains, but the bigger story was n precious metals, with silver soaring past $64.50 and gold topping out above $4,300. Both metals appear to have put in near term bottoms and recent gains can be pinpointed to the end of July, when China severely restricted gold and silver futures, setting in place trading tied to physical metal, in direct opposition to the paper trades of the COMEX and LBMA.

China's bold strategy may turn out to be a tectonic shift in precius metals trading, shifting the focus from West to East, thwarting the tactics that have suppressed the prices of gold and silver for decades. The transition - basing price on physical delivery rather than false standards and promises settled in fiat paper - is likely to take months and years to fully impact the global market, but all indications are that China, as the world's largest holder of gold, wants money to be back by something more than full faith and credit of broken, bankrupt Western economies.

As the BLS reported Friday morning that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the U.S. lost jobs in July, down 23,000. The drop in U.S. employment was the seventh monthly decline in the last 18 reports. Job losses were reported by the BLS in January, June, August, October, and December of 2025, and in February, and now, July, 2026.

Worsening the situation, the BLS also reported:

The change in total non-farm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported.

These downside revisions have become routine, and sometimes are market-moving. Reaction in the futures markets to what should be considered bad news, had the usual Wall Street pretzel logic, as a decline in employment might urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, as cheap money is always and everywhere top of mind for Wall Street financiers. Stock futures spiked higher, along with gold and silver futures.

Seemingly content with a crippled job market, Wall Street faces a tangled dilemma. Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is unlikely to reveal any indications of the FOMC's future intent, all the while the new Fed head leaning toward a slow and measured response, preferring the market making adjustments rather than the Fed pulling on the market's nose ring via hints, suppositions, and directional interest rate moves. The next FOMC meeting isn't for a month (September 15-16). Also, at the July meeting, three board members voted for a rate hike, so turning the board in favor of a cut would be a titanic effort.

Approaching 9:00 am ET, stock futures held their gains, with Dow futures up 159 points, NASDAQ futures ahead by 353, and S&P futures up 40 points.

Given that the July jobs report came in below the lowest estimate, it may be regarded as something of a shock, but the real trend is shown over the past 18 months, as U.S. job growth has stagnated. On the economy as a whole, Friday's July payrolls fall in line with the first reading of second quarter GDP, which was up a tiny 1.5%.

How Wall Street balances out a tiring econony with a runaway, overvalued stock market should begin to unfold today.

At the Close, Thursday, august 6, 2026:
Dow: 53,885.10, -464.02 (-0.85%)
NASDAQ: 26,348.35, -15.09 (-0.06%)
S&P 500: 7,709.96, -13.59 (-0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 24,484.06, -29.75 (-0.12%)

Dow Up, Tech Down as Wall Street Cruises through Earnings; AppLovin Stunned, Down 18% on Earnings Miss

Wall Street looks to be headed for another split session on Thursday, with Dow stocks on the rise and the broader market suffering a bit of buyer's remorse, as speculators backed off Wednesday.

Who can blame shareholders for taking some profits? The Shiller PE (CAPE) stands at 42.19, the second highest ever, the Dow and S&P have just made new all-time highs and the NASDAQ, though still technically in a corrective mode, is just percentage points of its own all-time high.

One cause for concern among the tech names is AppLovin (APP), a darling of speculators who sent the stock up above $700/share, just got hit with a big earnings miss. AppLovin reported a Q2 2026 revenue of $1,923.69 million, narrowly missing the estimated $1,942.00 million, while reported adjusted EPS came in at $3.76, falling short of the estimated $4.21. In pre-market trading, shares are down more than 18%, hovering around $340/share. The price cut in half in just eight months, there doesn't seem to be much tolerance for under-performance. In other words, AppLovin isn't getting much Lovin'.

Stocks futures are mixed, with NASDAQ futures down 236 points, while S&P futures are up 4.50 and Dow Futures ahead by 97 points.

Gold and silver have been rallying the past few days, with gold now back above $4,300 per ounce and silver above $61, both poised for major breakouts, maybe, someday.

Earnings reports continue to flow, though most of the big names have already come and gone. Friday's Non-farm payroll data will be the key to close out the week Friday.

It's a trader's market, with some degree of quiet in the Middle East. WTI crude oil is trading around $76/barrel, a reasonable level given the current state of affairs with Iran, Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.

At the Close, Wednesday, August 5, 2026:
Dow: 54,349.12, +263.24 (+0.49%)
NASDAQ: 26,363.44, -221.55 (-0.83%)
S&P 500: 7,723.55, -12.97 (-0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 24,513.81, +50.95 (+0.21%)

Dow, S&P 500 Close at New All-Time Highs; Disney Profit Rises, Will Add to Dow Surge; AMD Punished for High Capex

One thing that can be said about Wall Street: it loves a party.

Stocks were simply the rage on Tuesday, extending the across-the-board rally to four straight sessions, with the Dow and S&P posting record closing prices. The S&P made a decisive move forward, surpassing the June 2nd high of 7,609.78 without so much as making a pit stop in the 7,600 range, closing at 7,736.52. That certainly was a pretty loud cha-ching for SPY options players.

The beat goes on Wednesday after another Dow component, Disney (DIS), delivered an EPS surprise, reporting $2.06, well ahead of the estimated $1.85, while revenue of $25.25 billion came in just below expectations, at $25.41 billion. The profit boost sent shares of the entertainment monolith up 3.5 percent in pre-market trading.

After the close on Tuesday, these companies reported 2nd quarter results:
Advance Micro Devices (AMD) - top and bottom beat, but a 31% decline in gaming segment and high capex send shares down more than 7%
Opendoor (OPEN) - swing and a miss on EPS and revenue sending shares down 6% pre-market
Booking Holdings (BKNG) - top and bottom beat, record shareholder returns; stock up more than 6% prior to the bell

On Wednesday, before the open:
Shopify (SHOP) - solid beat, shares higher by 23% before the bell
Uber (UBER) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares down 3%
Eli Lilly (LLY) - big wins on earnings and revenue, shares up 5%

Since the beginning of the rally last Thursday, here's the scorecard for the three majors, roughly:

Dow: +2480 points
S&P 500: +420 points
NASDAQ: +2200 points

Not bad for four days.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 4, 2026: Dow: 54,085.88, +907.47 (+1.71%) NASDAQ: 26,584.99, +671.10 (+2.59%) S&P 500: 7,736.52, +136.02 (+1.79%) NYSE Composite: 24,462.87, +207.34 (+0.85%)

Dow Makes New All-Time High; S&P Should Surpass Previous High Today; NASDAQ Lags, But May Soon Out-Perform; Hormuz Open? Oil Lower

Stocks powered higher on Monday, extending the rally to tree straight sessions in all of the majors, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record all-time closing high.

The Dow posted a gain of nearly 700 points, betting that already solid quarterly results would be matched or bettered by companies about to report. The Dow components that have already reported include JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Visa (V), Chevron (CVX), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Boeing (BA), and Goldman Sachs (GS).

Queuing up for the Tuesday session, Merck (MRK), McDonald's (MCD), and Caterpillar (CAT) released second quarter results prior to the open.

Merck (MRK) reported a reported adjusted EPS of $0.00 (beating the estimated loss of -$0.257) and generated reported revenue of $16.61 billion, which surpassed the estimated $16.37 billion. The company's financial metrics were heavily impacted by a $5.7 billion one-time acquisition charge tied to Terns Pharmaceuticals, equivalent to a $2.31 per share hit that pulled down GAAP performance. Investors looked past lower guidance to send shares roughly one percent higher in pre-market trading.

McDonald's (MCD) reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.38, beating the estimated $3.321, while its reported revenue of $7.099 billion missed the estimated $7.126 billion. The stock was essentially flat prior to the opening bell.

Caterpillar (CAT) soared, beating top and bottom line estimates. Caterpillar reported a major beat for Q2 2026, delivering an adjusted EPS of $8.17 compared to the estimated $6.197, and generating revenue of $20.543 billion against expectations of approximately $19.199 billion. Following the blowout quarter, Caterpillar lifted its full-year 2026 revenue growth target to a mid-to-high-teens percentage range, up from its previous projection of low-double-digit growth. Caterpillar's stock was seen rising by as much as 12% in the pre-market.

At more then $800 per share, CAT is a heavyweight on the Dow and has sent Dow Futures soaring

After Monday's close, Palantir (PLTR) reported blowout earnings, sending shares up 15%, helping fuel a strong recovery on the NASDAQ.

At around 8:30 am ET, Dow futures are up 665 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 317, with S&P futures rising 26 points.

The S&P 500 is just nine points shy of a record closing high, which looks to be well withing range on Tuesday. The NASDAQ continues to lag, but, after a sharp selloff on fears of AI infrastructure overspending, bargain hunters are sure to step in and boost prices for hyperscalers like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and others. If current trends remain in place, the NASDAQ should surpass its own All-time high of 27,093.90 within weeks. It is roughly a 5% move.

Adding to the happy mood on Wall Street is the situation in the Middle East, with President Trump insisting that peace talks with Iran are moving forward, despite denials from the Iranians. In any case, the hostilities have diminished recently, with no major strikes by either side since last week. For its part, Iran continues negotiations with Oman and Qatar, seeking resolution to the logjam at the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent has chimed in, noting that a deal to open the strait to oil and other commercial traffic could come as early as tomorrow (or maybe today). How much of what the administration touts as progress is a matter of some conjecture. The administration has repeatedly talked "deal or no deal" over the past three months. The usual situation emanating from the proclamations and narrative-building is for negotiations to fail at the last minute, sending the region back to wartime positioning and oil spiking higher. Whether or not this is another head fake by Trump and his staff remains to be seen.

For now, markets have bought in, sending stocks higher, treasury yields and the price of oil lower.

Wall Street and the stock-trading Capitol Hill gang are on a roll.

At the Close, Monday, August 3, 2026:
Dow: 53,178.41, +693.38 (+1.32%)
NASDAQ: 25,913.90, +540.04 (+2.13%)
S&P 500: 7,600.50, +110.78 (+1.48%)
NYSE Composite: 24,255.53, +147.98 (+0.61%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Markets Lack Direction; Employment in Focus; Iran-U.S. Spat Continues; Gold, Silver Punished; Oil Higher

The past week was odd, to the point of being mostly inscrutable. After the FOMC reveal (no change) and press conference (no guidance) on Wednesday, stocks sold off like it was October 1929, but then staged an enormous rally Thursday, as if the events from the day before didn't even exist.

Hard to say, and even harder to prove, it appeared as if some people with large sums of money were playing games in deep pools, fooling the rest of the participants into making financial miscues. Both the downdraft on Wednesday and the upshot Thursday might as well be disregarded. They cancelled each other out.

Even with another one percent move higher on Friday, the NASDAQ remains moribund, down 6.35% from the June 2nd high (27,093.90). What looked on Thursday like an extended relief rally, might better be described as a "stick save, and a beauty", as the NASDAQ was less than 1/2 percent away from the "official" correction designation of down 10%. Can't have that.

The back-and-forth in the Middle East continues to the point of aggravation, the U.S. repeatedly saying a deal is close before resuming military actions against Iran. It's a monstrously bad situation that should not have happened in the first place, and, secondly, seems to be without any hope for a peaceful resolution. Thank the neocons and a completely corrupt congress and executive branch for yet another endless war.

Stocks

The major indices ended what was a two-week slide, led down by the NASDAQ, but there are few indications that this market is healthy. It's one of the more erratic structures of recent years, heavily politicized, highly mechanized, extremely overvalued, and without clear direction.

More big (and small) names will be reporting second quarter results this week, one of the busiest of the season, dominated by mid-week reports from Dow components:

Monday: (before open) Marriott International (MAR), Avista (AVA), Sportradar (SRAD); (after close) Palantir (PLTR), Vertex (VRTX), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Clorox (CLX)

Tuesday: (before open) Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), McDonald's (MCD), Caterpillar (CAT), Wayfair (W); (after close) AMD (AMD), Opendoor (OPEN), Kratos (KTOS), Allegiant (ALGT), Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Wednesday: (before open) Shopify (SHOP), Uber (UBER), Eli Lilly (LLY), Walt Disney (DIS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Riot (RIOT); (after close) Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), AppLovin (APP), Mercado Libre (MELI), Beyond Meat (BYND)

Thursday: (before open) Fiserve (FISV), Celsius ((CELH), Conoco Phillips (COP); (after close) AirBnB (ABNB), Red Cat (RCAT), Draft Kings (DKNG)

Friday: (before open) Wenday's (WEN), UnderArmour (UAA), Vistra Energy (VST)

Data releases include Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday, Balance of Trade (Imports/Exports), Factory Orders, and JOLTS. Wednesday: ADP Employment Report for July, S&P PMI; Thursday: Jobless Claims, which leads into the big finale, Friday's July Non-Farm Payrolls from the BLS.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96
07/10/2026	3.71	3.74	3.81	3.85	3.94	3.99	4.06
07/17/2026	3.73	3.75	3.80	3.85	3.91	3.96	4.01
07/24/2026	3.80	3.88	3.95	3.96	4.04	4.08	4.14
07/31/2026	3.78	3.80	3.85	3.83	3.92	3.98	4.08

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98
07/10/2026	4.21	4.22	4.30	4.42	4.56	5.08	5.06
07/17/2026	4.18	4.21	4.28	4.40	4.55	5.07	5.06
07/24/2026	4.33	4.36	4.43	4.55	4.69	5.18	5.16
07/31/2026	4.28	4.34	4.45	4.59	4.75	5.28	5.27

Nobody wants long-dates treasuries, with the 10-year yield now topping 4.75% and 30-year bonds yielding 5.27%.

Spreads continue to blow out, with the full spectrum at its highest level of the year.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $86.80, down from last week's closeout at $90.47 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, though still at the high end of the recent range. Military action in the Mideast region continues to drive oil prices higher. $100 oil is probably in the cards unless some kind of agreement between Iran, the U.S. and Israel is reached, so probably not very soon.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.07 last week and $4.07 this week, as the Middle East tinderbox exploded with military strikes throughout the region, the MOU between the U.S. and Iran completely shattered, fake talk of a deal continuing as the region devolves into a unmanageable quagmire.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but they have largely reached bottoms. With reserves exhausted, conditions are ripe for a return to $5 gas in the U.S., as the president completely disregards the welfare of U.S. citizens. Prices should reach near-record levels in coming weeks as there seems to be no path toward resolution other than annihilation. It continues to be a sorry state of affairs.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.66 (+0.03)
Washington: $5.13 (+0.03)
Indiana: $3.62 (+0.12)
Oklahoma: $3.64 (-0.10)
Mississippi: $3.63 (-0.01)
Florida: $3.80 (-0.15)
Illinois: $4.34 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.20 (-0.02)
New York: $4.19 (-0.01)
Maryland: $4.13 (-0.03)
Michigan: $4.36 (+0.15)
Texas (lowest): $3.56 (-0.12)
Georgia: $3.84 (-0.07)

On Sunday, April 2nd, there are twenty-four (24) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with 24 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.45) and Alaska ($4.75), with two above $5 (California and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past nine weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.64-3.91) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.70 to $4.05. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.62) lost its spot as the lowest, handing it over to Texas, as the moratorium on gasoline taxes in Indiana has expired.

Bitcoin

This week: $63,049.68
Last week: $64,633.18
2 weeks ago: $64,539.98
6 months ago: $78,766.63
One year ago: $113,730.60
Five years ago: $44,596.43

Bitcoin remained flat for the fourth straight week as the CLARITY act remains stalled in the Senate, the bandits in congress haven't fully endorsed the bill and it faces an uncertain future.

Bitcoin and crypto in general remain among the worst investments of 2026. Bitcoin is down 28% year-to-date.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 70.23; last week: 69.63

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30
Gold price 7/10: $4,128.90
Gold price 7/17: $4,023.00
Gold price 7/24: $4,055.70
Gold price 7/31: $4,098.60

Silver price 7/2: $62.81
Silver price 7/10: $60.30
Silver price 7/17: $56.22
Silver price 7/24: $58.49
Silver price 7/31: $57.78

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76
Gold 7/10: $4,119.70
Gold 7/17: $4,016.89
Gold 7/24: $4,052.00
Gold 7/31: $4,042.00

Silver 7/2: $60.93
Silver 7/10: $59.85
Silver 7/17: $55.91
Silver 7/24: $58.19
ilver: 7/31: $57.55

Holders and fans of real money were punished again last week.

The gold:silver ratio suggests silver may be a good play at these levels.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	55.00	70.00	63.95	64.80
1 oz silver bar:	64.81	73.47	68.02	67.64
1 oz gold coin:	4208.29	4450.00	4281.77	4275.96
1 oz gold bar:	4213.49	4346.74	4259.65	4248.49

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took another hit, closing the week at $66.10, a downside move of $3.42 per troy ounce from the July 26 price of $69.52.

WEEKEND WRAP

Everything is a narrative these days. Anybody finding real value is either lucky, cognizant of inside information, or of genius intelligence.

At the Close, Friday, July 31, 2026:
Dow: 52,485.03, +276.97 (+0.53%)
NASDAQ: 25,373.85(+251.68), +251.68 (1.00%)
S&P 500: 7,489.72, +52.09 (+0.70%)
NYSE Composite: 24,107.55, -30.75 (-0.13%)

For the Week:
Dow: +537.78 (+1.04%)
NASDAQ: +398.03 (+1.59%)
S&P 500: +77.74 (+1.05%)
NYSE Composite: +116.65 (+0.49%)
Dow Transports: +1436.86 (6.39%)

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