The past week was odd, to the point of being mostly inscrutable. After the FOMC reveal (no change) and press conference (no guidance) on Wednesday, stocks sold off like it was October 1929, but then staged an enormous rally Thursday, as if the events from the day before didn't even exist.
Hard to say, and even harder to prove, it appeared as if some people with large sums of money were playing games in deep pools, fooling the rest of the participants into making financial miscues. Both the downdraft on Wednesday and the upshot Thursday might as well be disregarded. They cancelled each other out.
Even with another one percent move higher on Friday, the NASDAQ remains moribund, down 6.35% from the June 2nd high (27,093.90). What looked on Thursday like an extended relief rally, might better be described as a "stick save, and a beauty", as the NASDAQ was less than 1/2 percent away from the "official" correction designation of down 10%. Can't have that.
The back-and-forth in the Middle East continues to the point of aggravation, the U.S. repeatedly saying a deal is close before resuming military actions against Iran. It's a monstrously bad situation that should not have happened in the first place, and, secondly, seems to be without any hope for a peaceful resolution. Thank the neocons and a completely corrupt congress and executive branch for yet another endless war.
Stocks
The major indices ended what was a two-week slide, led down by the NASDAQ, but there are few indications that this market is healthy. It's one of the more erratic structures of recent years, heavily politicized, highly mechanized, extremely overvalued, and without clear direction.
More big (and small) names will be reporting second quarter results this week, one of the busiest of the season, dominated by mid-week reports from Dow components:
Monday: (before open) Marriott International (MAR), Avista (AVA), Sportradar (SRAD); (after close) Palantir (PLTR), Vertex (VRTX), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Clorox (CLX)
Tuesday: (before open) Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), McDonald's (MCD), Caterpillar (CAT), Wayfair (W); (after close) AMD (AMD), Opendoor (OPEN), Kratos (KTOS), Allegiant (ALGT), Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Wednesday: (before open) Shopify (SHOP), Uber (UBER), Eli Lilly (LLY), Walt Disney (DIS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Riot (RIOT); (after close) Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), AppLovin (APP), Mercado Libre (MELI), Beyond Meat (BYND)
Thursday: (before open) Fiserve (FISV), Celsius ((CELH), Conoco Phillips (COP); (after close) AirBnB (ABNB), Red Cat (RCAT), Draft Kings (DKNG)
Friday: (before open) Wenday's (WEN), UnderArmour (UAA), Vistra Energy (VST)
Data releases include Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday, Balance of Trade (Imports/Exports), Factory Orders, and JOLTS. Wednesday: ADP Employment Report for July, S&P PMI; Thursday: Jobless Claims, which leads into the big finale, Friday's July Non-Farm Payrolls from the BLS.
Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/26/2026 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 3.83 | 3.89 | 3.94 | 3.94 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3.70 | 3.73 | 3.81 | 3.82 | 3.91 | 3.98 | 3.96 |
| 07/10/2026 | 3.71 | 3.74 | 3.81 | 3.85 | 3.94 | 3.99 | 4.06 |
| 07/17/2026 | 3.73 | 3.75 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.91 | 3.96 | 4.01 |
| 07/24/2026 | 3.80 | 3.88 | 3.95 | 3.96 | 4.04 | 4.08 | 4.14 |
| 07/31/2026 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.83 | 3.92 | 3.98 | 4.08 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/26/2026 | 4.07 | 4.09 | 4.12 | 4.23 | 4.38 | 4.87 | 4.87 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4.14 | 4.16 | 4.23 | 4.35 | 4.49 | 4.99 | 4.98 |
| 07/10/2026 | 4.21 | 4.22 | 4.30 | 4.42 | 4.56 | 5.08 | 5.06 |
| 07/17/2026 | 4.18 | 4.21 | 4.28 | 4.40 | 4.55 | 5.07 | 5.06 |
| 07/24/2026 | 4.33 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.55 | 4.69 | 5.18 | 5.16 |
| 07/31/2026 | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.45 | 4.59 | 4.75 | 5.28 | 5.27 |
Nobody wants long-dates treasuries, with the 10-year yield now topping 4.75% and 30-year bonds yielding 5.27%.
Spreads continue to blow out, with the full spectrum at its highest level of the year.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
Oil/Gas
August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $86.80, down from last week's closeout at $90.47 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, though still at the high end of the recent range. Military action in the Mideast region continues to drive oil prices higher. $100 oil is probably in the cards unless some kind of agreement between Iran, the U.S. and Israel is reached, so probably not very soon.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.07 last week and $4.07 this week, as the Middle East tinderbox exploded with military strikes throughout the region, the MOU between the U.S. and Iran completely shattered, fake talk of a deal continuing as the region devolves into a unmanageable quagmire.
Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but they have largely reached bottoms. With reserves exhausted, conditions are ripe for a return to $5 gas in the U.S., as the president completely disregards the welfare of U.S. citizens. Prices should reach near-record levels in coming weeks as there seems to be no path toward resolution other than annihilation. It continues to be a sorry state of affairs.
Gas prices in key states:
California (leader): $5.66 (+0.03)
Washington: $5.13 (+0.03)
Indiana: $3.62 (+0.12)
Oklahoma: $3.64 (-0.10)
Mississippi: $3.63 (-0.01)
Florida: $3.80 (-0.15)
Illinois: $4.34 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.20 (-0.02)
New York: $4.19 (-0.01)
Maryland: $4.13 (-0.03)
Michigan: $4.36 (+0.15)
Texas (lowest): $3.56 (-0.12)
Georgia: $3.84 (-0.07)
On Sunday, April 2nd, there are twenty-four (24) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with 24 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.45) and Alaska ($4.75), with two above $5 (California and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past nine weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.64-3.91) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.70 to $4.05. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.62) lost its spot as the lowest, handing it over to Texas, as the moratorium on gasoline taxes in Indiana has expired.
Bitcoin
This week: $63,049.68
Last week: $64,633.18
2 weeks ago: $64,539.98
6 months ago: $78,766.63
One year ago: $113,730.60
Five years ago: $44,596.43
Bitcoin remained flat for the fourth straight week as the CLARITY act remains stalled in the Senate, the bandits in congress haven't fully endorsed the bill and it faces an uncertain future.
Bitcoin and crypto in general remain among the worst investments of 2026. Bitcoin is down 28% year-to-date.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 70.23; last week: 69.63
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30
Gold price 7/10: $4,128.90
Gold price 7/17: $4,023.00
Gold price 7/24: $4,055.70
Gold price 7/31: $4,098.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81
Silver price 7/10: $60.30
Silver price 7/17: $56.22
Silver price 7/24: $58.49
Silver price 7/31: $57.78
SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76
Gold 7/10: $4,119.70
Gold 7/17: $4,016.89
Gold 7/24: $4,052.00
Gold 7/31: $4,042.00
Silver 7/2: $60.93
Silver 7/10: $59.85
Silver 7/17: $55.91
Silver 7/24: $58.19
ilver: 7/31: $57.55
Holders and fans of real money were punished again last week.
The gold:silver ratio suggests silver may be a good play at these levels.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 55.00 | 70.00 | 63.95 | 64.80 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 64.81 | 73.47 | 68.02 | 67.64 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4208.29 | 4450.00 | 4281.77 | 4275.96 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4213.49 | 4346.74 | 4259.65 | 4248.49 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took another hit, closing the week at $66.10, a downside move of $3.42 per troy ounce from the July 26 price of $69.52.
WEEKEND WRAP
Everything is a narrative these days. Anybody finding real value is either lucky, cognizant of inside information, or of genius intelligence.
At the Close, Friday, July 31, 2026:
Dow: 52,485.03, +276.97 (+0.53%)
NASDAQ: 25,373.85(+251.68), +251.68 (1.00%)
S&P 500: 7,489.72, +52.09 (+0.70%)
NYSE Composite: 24,107.55, -30.75 (-0.13%)
For the Week:
Dow: +537.78 (+1.04%)
NASDAQ: +398.03 (+1.59%)
S&P 500: +77.74 (+1.05%)
NYSE Composite: +116.65 (+0.49%)
Dow Transports: +1436.86 (6.39%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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