After yesterday's extraordinary move forward, there was a sense - by the end of the session - that the rally had finally reached a turning point. Early on Thursday, however, not everyone was convinced as employment data seemed to indicate a further strengthening in the economy. But, even though first-time claims were lower, they were still at extreme levels. 631,000 Americans filed for unemployment insurance in the most recent week.
As much as anyone wanted to call that number "improvement," long-time market watchers and economists warned against extended confidence. Additionally, the failure of Chrysler to secure a merger with Fiat without heading to bankruptcy court first, sent shivers through the markets.
Shortly after 11:00 am, the bloom was off the rose. The Dow peaked above 8300 briefly, but sold off for the remainder of the day with the other major indices suffering similar fates. By the end of the day, only the NASDAQ was showing a positive result.
Dow 8,168.12, -17.61 (0.22%)
NASDAQ 1,717.30, +5.36 (0.31%)
S&P 500 872.81, -0.83 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 5,513.36, -2.78 (0.05%)
While the losses were marginal, the turn in sentiment was noticeable, especially after weeks of gains. Anybody entering the market on the long side today was hoping against reality that the economy would continue to improve and stocks would not slide back to depressed levels.
The Chrysler story topped even the growing concern over the swine flu pandemic, which spread to more states and more countries as the day wore on. With closures of schools in Texas and elsewhere, residents in the heartland are more concerned over the future of their employment. Chrysler's demise and involuntary bankruptcy may cost tens of thousands of auto workers their jobs and ripple throughout the already weakened economy.
By the end of the session, advancing issues - thanks largely to the relative strength of small caps on the NYSE - beat decliners, 3485-3027. New lows once more finished ahead of new highs, 99-50. It was the highest number of new lows in more than a week, and the trend of more new lows than highs on a daily basis continued unabated for what now has become a span of 19 consecutive months, dating back to October, 2007. Trading volume was elevated, though not extreme.
NYSE Volume 1,740,450,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,845,180,000
Commodity markets felt the pain as well. Oil was down 24 cents, to $50.88. Gold fell $9.30, to $891.20, while silver slid 45 cents to $12.33. There was not much to get excited over, either in stocks or commodities. Chrysler's demise has cast a new pallor over the entire economy.
Stocks have been pushing the limits of this rally in recent days and it now appears certain to all but the most optimistic that further deterioration to the economy is dead ahead. Most of the companies which beat street estimates were beating lowered expectations and many of those same companies have slashed dividends or didn't supply them in the first place. Chrysler's condition is almost certain to result in more layoffs, which can only erode the economic landscape further.
After first quarter GDP was reported at a loss of 6.1% on Wednesday, some investors took that as a sign of improvement, since the 4th quarter of '08 checked in with a loss of 6.3%. While the most recent figures are subject to revision, there's every chance that the economy could have retrenched by an even larger amount.
In this kind of economic climate, it has been difficult to watch stocks gain so rapidly, armed with knowledge instead of hope and the cheerleading of the noise-machine at CNBC and Fox Financial Network (FNN). It finally appears that more reasonable expectations are going to have a hearing. In the course of the past two months, stocks have gone from falling off the planet to an overbought condition. With the consideration that this recession could still turn worse, into a full-fledged depression, the rapidity of investors bailing out of stocks could surprise many.
The US economy has suffered severe structural damage. It is still unclear whether the nation's largest banks are insolvent or otherwise incapable of leading the country out of this corrective period. Further, the will of the American people has been sorely tested and they are not in any kind of mood for more bank bailouts while workers are idled and state and municipal budgets are stressed.
We may be facing a real paradigm change in how much faith we will place in institutions going forward.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Preparing For the Next Crash
One would have assumed that if 1st quarter GDP had come in worse than expected this morning - expectations were around -5%, the actual figure was -6.1% - that stocks would sell off.
One would have been wrong - very wrong - as the market merely shrugged off another indication that the recession was worsening and headed off to new heights. This makes trading stocks on fundamentals, or even economic conditions, not only difficult, but impossible. Every day there are new signs that the economy is mired in a negative-growth trench, yet stocks continue to rally, seemingly without end.
Today's activity was probably the most remarkable event of the past two months, noting the considerable obstacles to economic growth standing in the way, huge unemployment numbers, continued weakness in residential housing and now commercial real estate and the continuing saga of the spreading Swine Flu.
It was remarkable in that while stocks were poised to jump start at the open even before the 8:30 am release of 1st quarter GDP figures, but even more remarkable in that stock futures didn't even blink when it was revealed that actual GDP was falling at a faster rate than anticipated. One can only assume that insiders already knew the figures or had already decided the day's direction for stocks and would not be dissuaded regardless of reality. Had the actual NY stock exchange been blown to bits, traders would still have pushed stocks higher, such was the plan for the day.
It's a scam, a complete and total rigging by the controllers of the market and the country. In the end they will bankrupt all of us, but for now, they are in the business of pushing stock prices higher. It will not last. It cannot last. The fundamentals of the economy are entirely too weak to sustain stock valuations bordering on the absurd.
Making matters even more ridiculous, the Fed announced no change in interest rate policy - widely expected - but hinted that there were signs of "recovery" in the US economy. Though the press release announcing that the Federal Funds rate would remain between 0 and 0.25% (read: free money) was among the shortest on record, the following passage provided more insight than any other verbiage in the text:
Reading that sentence carefully, the Committee (FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee) is trying to avoid using the word "deflation," which is occurring across a wide swath of the economic landscape. They are also trying to rectify "inflation" and "price stability." In other words, the Fed isn't really promoting "price stability" as they are so chartered. They are hell-bent on inducing inflation, the very same inflation that has wrecked our economy for so many years, for as long as the Federal Reserve has operated as the nation's central bank there has been unstoppable, rampant inflation which has destroyed the value of the dollar and kept wages at poverty levels for a majority of the working population.
They simply cannot have inflation and price stability at the same time. The two are not polar opposites - inflation and deflation are - but price stability means equilibrium, a condition which spells death for the US economy, built on debt and tied inexorably to inflation and wealth destruction.
So, it is time to prepare for the next crash, which, in light of current economic policies of the Fed, is inevitable. The market's aberrant behavior is sending the strongest sell signal I've ever seen, violating all manner of resistance in charts and basic fundamental trading regimens.
It is time to unload all stocks, at once, because the retracement back to the March lows will commence shortly.
I wrote the above line at 3:03 pm EDT, after the Dow peaked at 8250 and was beginning to retreat. By the end of the day, the sell-off was in full bloom, just before last-minute buying punched stocks ahead right at the close (painting the tape).
Dow 8,185.73, +168.78 (2.11%)
NASDAQ 1,711.94, +38.13 (2.28%)
S&P 500 873.64, +18.48 (2.16%)
NYSE Composite 5,516.14, +146.29 (2.72%)
Just to illuminate my position that the recent advances in stock prices are unsustainable, below are some of the headlines for today, with links to the underlying articles:
CNN Money: Economy falls much more than expected
Associated Press: Jobless rates rise in all US metro areas in March
Reuters: U.S. to pay off mortgage investors
Do any of those headlines encourage you enough to go out and buy stocks? No? I didn't think so. The economy is sinking into a black hole, the United States is becoming even more of a welfare state than it already was and hope for lasting, robust recovery is nothing more than a fantasy. If you don't think so, I encourage you to read this exceptional article: Economic Obsolescence, by Andrew McKillop. Be forewarned. It is quite deep and lengthy, but filled with insights and observations you won't find on CNBC or any other fraudulent financial reporting service.
My message is simple. Wall Street, stocks, retirement plans, 401k plans and the like are a scam. You're better off investing in your own home, planting a garden, cutting your expenses and going back to a simpler lifestyle. However, depending upon where you live, you may need high walls and security devices to keep out intruders, because many of the people in the USA are going to face horrific economic conditions over the next 6-12 years. Six years of pain and no growth are in the cards at a minimum. Higher taxes, higher crime rates, rioting, corruption in government and an overwhelming debt burden on families and the government are inevitable. Bank failures have thus far been avoided only due to manipulation and intervention by the Fed and general obfuscation and outright lying by both the Treasury and the banksters (bank gangsters).
The longer we hand out money to the undeserving - be they banks or welfare recipients - the longer it will take and the harder it will be to restore any semblance of a functioning economy. Right now, the economy is on extended life support, but the patient, for all intents and purposes, is a vegetable, incapable of ever returning to a functional lifestyle. The government bailouts and stimulus plans, plus the heavy debt imposed by the upcoming federal budget, is tantamount to throwing money into a blazing bonfire. It will all go for naught, not for investment, and therefore will result in DEFLATION, not inflation, a point sorely missed by the ignorant morons at the Fed and at the top positions of government. Their actions are making the road to recovery longer and actually exacerbating the depth of the depression.
There is good news. The country formerly known as the land of the free and the home of the brave is now full of people living on government hand-outs, with steady incomes and no clue as to value. And don't believe that just welfare recipients - those with the plasma TVs, all the cable channels and usually a late-model car in the driveway - are alone in their status of money-takers. Add to it anybody on any government payroll anywhere: cops, teachers, mayors, social service workers; and retirees on military pensions, social security, what have you. There has never been a better time to screw people out of their money. The nation is full of dupes, dopes, pigeons and rubes, standing in line to be taken directly to the cleaners. That is the end result of the welfare state, where money is disrespected because it was not earned.
So, if you have an idea and some motivation, crooked or honest, you should do well. People just can't stop spending and the government is actually encouraging waste on a gigantic scale. The money is out there. You just need to go get it.
On the day, internals were mixed, though advancing issues outnumbered declining ones by a wide margin, 5233-1265. New highs came close to overtaking new lows, but failed with 93 new 52-week lows being reported to 55 new highs. Both numbers are elevated from previous readings but have not diverged significantly. They will - one way or the other - soon. A breakout or breakdown is overdue.
NYSE Volume 8,913,934,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,361,983,750
Commodities were mostly higher. Oil gained $1.05, to $50.80. Gold was up $6.90, to $900.50. Silver gained 35 cents, to $12.78. Pork bellies sold off, down $1.93, to $75.88 per pound, though live hog prices stabilized and were actually moderately higher.
Make no doubt about it. Today's late-day sell-off was just the opening salvo. Volume spiked incredibly after 2:30, when the Dow lost more than 100 points into the close. The selling will accelerate soon, maybe tomorrow, maybe Friday, maybe not even until next week, but it will come and it will be swift and severe. Count on it.
Keep an eye on the equally-bogus "swine flu pandemic" which will be blamed for the coming market downturn. More deaths will be caused by trying to prevent the disease - watch how Tamiflu and other medicines will be promoted - and the sure-to-come vaccine, than the disease itself, though the media will not report that fact.
One would have been wrong - very wrong - as the market merely shrugged off another indication that the recession was worsening and headed off to new heights. This makes trading stocks on fundamentals, or even economic conditions, not only difficult, but impossible. Every day there are new signs that the economy is mired in a negative-growth trench, yet stocks continue to rally, seemingly without end.
Today's activity was probably the most remarkable event of the past two months, noting the considerable obstacles to economic growth standing in the way, huge unemployment numbers, continued weakness in residential housing and now commercial real estate and the continuing saga of the spreading Swine Flu.
It was remarkable in that while stocks were poised to jump start at the open even before the 8:30 am release of 1st quarter GDP figures, but even more remarkable in that stock futures didn't even blink when it was revealed that actual GDP was falling at a faster rate than anticipated. One can only assume that insiders already knew the figures or had already decided the day's direction for stocks and would not be dissuaded regardless of reality. Had the actual NY stock exchange been blown to bits, traders would still have pushed stocks higher, such was the plan for the day.
It's a scam, a complete and total rigging by the controllers of the market and the country. In the end they will bankrupt all of us, but for now, they are in the business of pushing stock prices higher. It will not last. It cannot last. The fundamentals of the economy are entirely too weak to sustain stock valuations bordering on the absurd.
Making matters even more ridiculous, the Fed announced no change in interest rate policy - widely expected - but hinted that there were signs of "recovery" in the US economy. Though the press release announcing that the Federal Funds rate would remain between 0 and 0.25% (read: free money) was among the shortest on record, the following passage provided more insight than any other verbiage in the text:
"In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term."
Reading that sentence carefully, the Committee (FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee) is trying to avoid using the word "deflation," which is occurring across a wide swath of the economic landscape. They are also trying to rectify "inflation" and "price stability." In other words, the Fed isn't really promoting "price stability" as they are so chartered. They are hell-bent on inducing inflation, the very same inflation that has wrecked our economy for so many years, for as long as the Federal Reserve has operated as the nation's central bank there has been unstoppable, rampant inflation which has destroyed the value of the dollar and kept wages at poverty levels for a majority of the working population.
They simply cannot have inflation and price stability at the same time. The two are not polar opposites - inflation and deflation are - but price stability means equilibrium, a condition which spells death for the US economy, built on debt and tied inexorably to inflation and wealth destruction.
So, it is time to prepare for the next crash, which, in light of current economic policies of the Fed, is inevitable. The market's aberrant behavior is sending the strongest sell signal I've ever seen, violating all manner of resistance in charts and basic fundamental trading regimens.
It is time to unload all stocks, at once, because the retracement back to the March lows will commence shortly.
I wrote the above line at 3:03 pm EDT, after the Dow peaked at 8250 and was beginning to retreat. By the end of the day, the sell-off was in full bloom, just before last-minute buying punched stocks ahead right at the close (painting the tape).
Dow 8,185.73, +168.78 (2.11%)
NASDAQ 1,711.94, +38.13 (2.28%)
S&P 500 873.64, +18.48 (2.16%)
NYSE Composite 5,516.14, +146.29 (2.72%)
Just to illuminate my position that the recent advances in stock prices are unsustainable, below are some of the headlines for today, with links to the underlying articles:
CNN Money: Economy falls much more than expected
Associated Press: Jobless rates rise in all US metro areas in March
Reuters: U.S. to pay off mortgage investors
Do any of those headlines encourage you enough to go out and buy stocks? No? I didn't think so. The economy is sinking into a black hole, the United States is becoming even more of a welfare state than it already was and hope for lasting, robust recovery is nothing more than a fantasy. If you don't think so, I encourage you to read this exceptional article: Economic Obsolescence, by Andrew McKillop. Be forewarned. It is quite deep and lengthy, but filled with insights and observations you won't find on CNBC or any other fraudulent financial reporting service.
My message is simple. Wall Street, stocks, retirement plans, 401k plans and the like are a scam. You're better off investing in your own home, planting a garden, cutting your expenses and going back to a simpler lifestyle. However, depending upon where you live, you may need high walls and security devices to keep out intruders, because many of the people in the USA are going to face horrific economic conditions over the next 6-12 years. Six years of pain and no growth are in the cards at a minimum. Higher taxes, higher crime rates, rioting, corruption in government and an overwhelming debt burden on families and the government are inevitable. Bank failures have thus far been avoided only due to manipulation and intervention by the Fed and general obfuscation and outright lying by both the Treasury and the banksters (bank gangsters).
The longer we hand out money to the undeserving - be they banks or welfare recipients - the longer it will take and the harder it will be to restore any semblance of a functioning economy. Right now, the economy is on extended life support, but the patient, for all intents and purposes, is a vegetable, incapable of ever returning to a functional lifestyle. The government bailouts and stimulus plans, plus the heavy debt imposed by the upcoming federal budget, is tantamount to throwing money into a blazing bonfire. It will all go for naught, not for investment, and therefore will result in DEFLATION, not inflation, a point sorely missed by the ignorant morons at the Fed and at the top positions of government. Their actions are making the road to recovery longer and actually exacerbating the depth of the depression.
There is good news. The country formerly known as the land of the free and the home of the brave is now full of people living on government hand-outs, with steady incomes and no clue as to value. And don't believe that just welfare recipients - those with the plasma TVs, all the cable channels and usually a late-model car in the driveway - are alone in their status of money-takers. Add to it anybody on any government payroll anywhere: cops, teachers, mayors, social service workers; and retirees on military pensions, social security, what have you. There has never been a better time to screw people out of their money. The nation is full of dupes, dopes, pigeons and rubes, standing in line to be taken directly to the cleaners. That is the end result of the welfare state, where money is disrespected because it was not earned.
So, if you have an idea and some motivation, crooked or honest, you should do well. People just can't stop spending and the government is actually encouraging waste on a gigantic scale. The money is out there. You just need to go get it.
On the day, internals were mixed, though advancing issues outnumbered declining ones by a wide margin, 5233-1265. New highs came close to overtaking new lows, but failed with 93 new 52-week lows being reported to 55 new highs. Both numbers are elevated from previous readings but have not diverged significantly. They will - one way or the other - soon. A breakout or breakdown is overdue.
NYSE Volume 8,913,934,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,361,983,750
Commodities were mostly higher. Oil gained $1.05, to $50.80. Gold was up $6.90, to $900.50. Silver gained 35 cents, to $12.78. Pork bellies sold off, down $1.93, to $75.88 per pound, though live hog prices stabilized and were actually moderately higher.
Make no doubt about it. Today's late-day sell-off was just the opening salvo. Volume spiked incredibly after 2:30, when the Dow lost more than 100 points into the close. The selling will accelerate soon, maybe tomorrow, maybe Friday, maybe not even until next week, but it will come and it will be swift and severe. Count on it.
Keep an eye on the equally-bogus "swine flu pandemic" which will be blamed for the coming market downturn. More deaths will be caused by trying to prevent the disease - watch how Tamiflu and other medicines will be promoted - and the sure-to-come vaccine, than the disease itself, though the media will not report that fact.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Live Hogs, Pork Bellies Down on Swine Flu Paranoia
Maybe I could just re-post yesterday's scribble about "trading sideways... or down", but that would be redundant. Still, just what was that market doing today? Where was the volatility, the movement, the fear factor, the monumental moves attributed to the "recovery" or earnings reports?
Today may have been the dullest day for trading stocks in many years, though it wasn't that much different than the past two. After an initial dip to 7950 - a loss of 70 points on the Dow - it quickly recovered and spent the rest of the day vacillating over and under the break even line and in between 8005 and 8090. It was a big, fat yawning festival.
While investors await either first quarter GDP (tomorrow) or more insight into the spread of swine flu (spreading fast: by this time next week, expect it to be a full blown pandemic with outbreaks in no less than 30 countries and deaths in 12), investors were pretty much stuck with what they'd bid up over the past 7 weeks, so, good luck to them. Meanwhile, there's no indication that the US and global economies are in any better condition than they were 6 months ago despite trillions of dollars n stimulus and bailouts and assorted programs.
Dow 8,016.95, -8.05 (0.10%)
NASDAQ 1,673.81, -5.60 (0.33%)
S&P 500 855.16, -2.35 (0.27%)
NYSE Composite 5,369.85, -19.98 (0.37%)
On the day, advancing issues beat out decliners, 3449-2949, and new lows surpassed new highs, 69-32. Most importantly, today was the second straight session in which volume was subdued, well below levels seen over the past few weeks of furious buying activity. We are now poised for a sell-off of major proportions. The trickle of selling the past two days will quickly turn to a raging torrent on any bad news. Investors are seeking reasons to take profits and disbelieve the "recovery" claptrap.
NYSE Volume 1,251,073,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,103,607,000
The somnambulant nature of the equity markets did not translate into commodities, where there were wild and wide price swings. Crude oil fell 22 cents, to $49.58, but bigger hits were taken in gold, down $14.60, to $893.60, silver, off 56 cents, to $12.43, lean hogs, down $2.35, to $66.30, and pork bellies, which fell $3.00, to $77.80. The falls in hogs and bellies were almost exclusively tied to swine flu paranoia, though there is absolutely no evidence that consumption of pork can lead to obtaining the flu virus.
Since markets are emotional by nature, expect what happened to pork bellies and the price of pork to occur in various other investment strata, including equities of all kinds. The argument that travel restrictions to some countries may hamper the earnings of some airlines, hotels and cruise lines may be plausible, but extending the argument - that overall swine flu fear might keep more people in their homes and away from large gatherings - takes a leap of faith.
Of course, one could blame the swine flu for further deterioration in the economy instead of admitting that the government's plans so far have failed. That's an easy one, and likely to be coming to a headline near you soon.
By 8:30 am tomorrow, when the Commerce Department releases its advance estimate on 1st quarter GDP, we should have a relatively good understanding of where we sit and how far stocks will need to be sold off. As corporate earnings dissipate from the scene, the market will be looking for other signals.
Deaths from swine flu will become a leading indicator of worldwide distress. You heard it here first.
Today may have been the dullest day for trading stocks in many years, though it wasn't that much different than the past two. After an initial dip to 7950 - a loss of 70 points on the Dow - it quickly recovered and spent the rest of the day vacillating over and under the break even line and in between 8005 and 8090. It was a big, fat yawning festival.
While investors await either first quarter GDP (tomorrow) or more insight into the spread of swine flu (spreading fast: by this time next week, expect it to be a full blown pandemic with outbreaks in no less than 30 countries and deaths in 12), investors were pretty much stuck with what they'd bid up over the past 7 weeks, so, good luck to them. Meanwhile, there's no indication that the US and global economies are in any better condition than they were 6 months ago despite trillions of dollars n stimulus and bailouts and assorted programs.
Dow 8,016.95, -8.05 (0.10%)
NASDAQ 1,673.81, -5.60 (0.33%)
S&P 500 855.16, -2.35 (0.27%)
NYSE Composite 5,369.85, -19.98 (0.37%)
On the day, advancing issues beat out decliners, 3449-2949, and new lows surpassed new highs, 69-32. Most importantly, today was the second straight session in which volume was subdued, well below levels seen over the past few weeks of furious buying activity. We are now poised for a sell-off of major proportions. The trickle of selling the past two days will quickly turn to a raging torrent on any bad news. Investors are seeking reasons to take profits and disbelieve the "recovery" claptrap.
NYSE Volume 1,251,073,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,103,607,000
The somnambulant nature of the equity markets did not translate into commodities, where there were wild and wide price swings. Crude oil fell 22 cents, to $49.58, but bigger hits were taken in gold, down $14.60, to $893.60, silver, off 56 cents, to $12.43, lean hogs, down $2.35, to $66.30, and pork bellies, which fell $3.00, to $77.80. The falls in hogs and bellies were almost exclusively tied to swine flu paranoia, though there is absolutely no evidence that consumption of pork can lead to obtaining the flu virus.
Since markets are emotional by nature, expect what happened to pork bellies and the price of pork to occur in various other investment strata, including equities of all kinds. The argument that travel restrictions to some countries may hamper the earnings of some airlines, hotels and cruise lines may be plausible, but extending the argument - that overall swine flu fear might keep more people in their homes and away from large gatherings - takes a leap of faith.
Of course, one could blame the swine flu for further deterioration in the economy instead of admitting that the government's plans so far have failed. That's an easy one, and likely to be coming to a headline near you soon.
By 8:30 am tomorrow, when the Commerce Department releases its advance estimate on 1st quarter GDP, we should have a relatively good understanding of where we sit and how far stocks will need to be sold off. As corporate earnings dissipate from the scene, the market will be looking for other signals.
Deaths from swine flu will become a leading indicator of worldwide distress. You heard it here first.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Nowhere to Go But Sideways... or Down
Since April 3, the first time the Dow closed above 8000 since February 9, the Dow has traded in a range - using closing prices - of 342, from a low of 7789 (April 9) to 8131 (April 17). This is a span of 15 trading sessions, most of which occurred during the height of earnings season.
More than 3/5ths of companies having already reported, the decision is out on the first quarter. It wasn't horrible, but it wasn't very good either. Later this week - Wednesday, to be exact - the government will issue forth their proclamation of how much the economy downsized in the first quarter of 2009 with the release of an initial GDP estimate. Estimates run mostly in the 4.2 to 4.8% range, following a 6.3% decline in the 4th quarter of 2008.
If these guesses are accurate, some will call the first quarter the bottoming of the recession, while others, like yours truly, will point out that the second consecutive quarterly decline in GDP merely affirms that we are in a real recession, and it's a deep one with no real end in sight.
Unemployment figures are still extraordinarily high, housing prices continue to fall and the credit contraction is as bad, if not worse, than it was in the September-November period of last year. The banking stress tests, like most of what else the government has mismanaged, are a complete fraud for estimating economic conditions much rosier than what may actually occur. The US and global economies face more strong headwinds in the months and years ahead.
There are, however, some bargains in the stock market. You just have to know where to look. And you have to have some faith in the system and hope that there are others out there like you. It's a lot for which to hope.
On the other hand, now might not be the best time to be seeking bargain stocks. Many of today's cheapies were even cheaper a month or two ago. Stocks are stuck in a range; further upside may be - will be - difficult to accomplish.
Dow 8,025.00, -51.29 (0.64%)
NASDAQ 1,679.41, -14.88 (0.88%)
S&P 500 857.50, -8.73 (1.01%)
NYSE Composite 5,389.82, -78.59 (1.44%)
On the day, the mood was negative, with advancing issues beaten down by decliners, 4339-2145. New lows led new highs, 68-29. Volume, which was lower by a wide margin from last week, is sending mixed signals, but mostly that there is a lack of buying interest at this time. All of this leaves stocks with little to do except wait and wallow, or head lower. Were stocks to go any higher, they would only become even more overbought that they have been for at least three weeks. It is a condition which cannot persist.
NYSE Volume 1,402,328,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,225,050,000
Commodities were all lower, returning to the deflation scenario, which hasn't actually been played out and has years in which to run, instead of months, as the government and financial pundits would have you believe. Some people are actually talking about inflation's quick return in the form of higher prices. That's an appearance I would not count on for at least another 9-12 months, but more properly, prices will be under pressure for at least the next two years and probably longer.
Oil for June delivery was down $1.41, to $50.13. Gold dipped $5.90, to $908.20. Silver notched a 4 cent gain to close at $12.99 in New York. The rest of the popularly-traded commodities were down, including foodstuffs.
As for the swine flu hysteria, that's strictly a sideshow to the real story. It's all about your money, and how the government and/or banking/insurance/investment complex screws you out of yours.
There are other options, like physical gold, silver, other commodities, actual saving, smart budgeting, and owning your own business, just for openers.
More than 3/5ths of companies having already reported, the decision is out on the first quarter. It wasn't horrible, but it wasn't very good either. Later this week - Wednesday, to be exact - the government will issue forth their proclamation of how much the economy downsized in the first quarter of 2009 with the release of an initial GDP estimate. Estimates run mostly in the 4.2 to 4.8% range, following a 6.3% decline in the 4th quarter of 2008.
If these guesses are accurate, some will call the first quarter the bottoming of the recession, while others, like yours truly, will point out that the second consecutive quarterly decline in GDP merely affirms that we are in a real recession, and it's a deep one with no real end in sight.
Unemployment figures are still extraordinarily high, housing prices continue to fall and the credit contraction is as bad, if not worse, than it was in the September-November period of last year. The banking stress tests, like most of what else the government has mismanaged, are a complete fraud for estimating economic conditions much rosier than what may actually occur. The US and global economies face more strong headwinds in the months and years ahead.
There are, however, some bargains in the stock market. You just have to know where to look. And you have to have some faith in the system and hope that there are others out there like you. It's a lot for which to hope.
On the other hand, now might not be the best time to be seeking bargain stocks. Many of today's cheapies were even cheaper a month or two ago. Stocks are stuck in a range; further upside may be - will be - difficult to accomplish.
Dow 8,025.00, -51.29 (0.64%)
NASDAQ 1,679.41, -14.88 (0.88%)
S&P 500 857.50, -8.73 (1.01%)
NYSE Composite 5,389.82, -78.59 (1.44%)
On the day, the mood was negative, with advancing issues beaten down by decliners, 4339-2145. New lows led new highs, 68-29. Volume, which was lower by a wide margin from last week, is sending mixed signals, but mostly that there is a lack of buying interest at this time. All of this leaves stocks with little to do except wait and wallow, or head lower. Were stocks to go any higher, they would only become even more overbought that they have been for at least three weeks. It is a condition which cannot persist.
NYSE Volume 1,402,328,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,225,050,000
Commodities were all lower, returning to the deflation scenario, which hasn't actually been played out and has years in which to run, instead of months, as the government and financial pundits would have you believe. Some people are actually talking about inflation's quick return in the form of higher prices. That's an appearance I would not count on for at least another 9-12 months, but more properly, prices will be under pressure for at least the next two years and probably longer.
Oil for June delivery was down $1.41, to $50.13. Gold dipped $5.90, to $908.20. Silver notched a 4 cent gain to close at $12.99 in New York. The rest of the popularly-traded commodities were down, including foodstuffs.
As for the swine flu hysteria, that's strictly a sideshow to the real story. It's all about your money, and how the government and/or banking/insurance/investment complex screws you out of yours.
There are other options, like physical gold, silver, other commodities, actual saving, smart budgeting, and owning your own business, just for openers.
Friday, April 24, 2009
NASDAQ Ends Week With Overall Gain, Dow, S&P End Streak
The markets roared into positive ground again on Friday, with all major indices finishing off the week on a positive note. However, only the NASDAQ continued the string of weekly gains, as the S&P and the Dow both could not overcome severe losses from Monday.
Dow 8,076.29, +119.23 (1.50%)
NASDAQ 1,694.29, +42.08 (2.55%)
S&P 500 866.23, +14.31 (1.68%)
NYSE Composite 5,468.41, +96.31 (1.79%)
Overlaying the entire trading complex was the release of a government report which outlined the methodology of the banks' "stress tests." While the government will keep everybody on the edge of their seats until May 4, when the results of the tests on 19 of the nation's largest banks are released, today's report did little to tip their hand.
For the most part, nobody has a clue as to which banks will pass or fail, though various sources keep suggesting that none of the banks will actually fail.
With that lack of information in hand, investors continued bidding share prices higher, giving somewhat of an indication that the stress tests will probably amount to much ado about nothing. May 4 will come and go, and the government will continue to maintain that banks like Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase are "sufficiently capitalized" to weather any financial storm. In general, waiting for the stress test results is like watching paint dry - boring and anticlimactic.
On the day, advancing issues pummeled decliners, 4814-1652. New lows outnumbered new highs, 85-24. Volume was strong, as it has been all week, though Monday's was by far the highest volume of the week.
NYSE Volume 1,733,499,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,592,196,000
Oil gained $2.69 to $51.54. Gold was up $7.50, to $914.10. Silver finished up 17 cents, to $12.95 per ounce. Foodstuffs were mostly down, and natural gas has bottomed out at $3.40 per 1000 btu.
Aside from Monday's post-option expiration scare, the markets enjoyed another solid week. The NASDAQ stretched its winning streak to 7 straight, though the Dow and S&P are at or approaching solid resistance points.
Dow 8,076.29, +119.23 (1.50%)
NASDAQ 1,694.29, +42.08 (2.55%)
S&P 500 866.23, +14.31 (1.68%)
NYSE Composite 5,468.41, +96.31 (1.79%)
Overlaying the entire trading complex was the release of a government report which outlined the methodology of the banks' "stress tests." While the government will keep everybody on the edge of their seats until May 4, when the results of the tests on 19 of the nation's largest banks are released, today's report did little to tip their hand.
For the most part, nobody has a clue as to which banks will pass or fail, though various sources keep suggesting that none of the banks will actually fail.
With that lack of information in hand, investors continued bidding share prices higher, giving somewhat of an indication that the stress tests will probably amount to much ado about nothing. May 4 will come and go, and the government will continue to maintain that banks like Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase are "sufficiently capitalized" to weather any financial storm. In general, waiting for the stress test results is like watching paint dry - boring and anticlimactic.
On the day, advancing issues pummeled decliners, 4814-1652. New lows outnumbered new highs, 85-24. Volume was strong, as it has been all week, though Monday's was by far the highest volume of the week.
NYSE Volume 1,733,499,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,592,196,000
Oil gained $2.69 to $51.54. Gold was up $7.50, to $914.10. Silver finished up 17 cents, to $12.95 per ounce. Foodstuffs were mostly down, and natural gas has bottomed out at $3.40 per 1000 btu.
Aside from Monday's post-option expiration scare, the markets enjoyed another solid week. The NASDAQ stretched its winning streak to 7 straight, though the Dow and S&P are at or approaching solid resistance points.
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