Stocks made outsize gains for the fourth consecutive session; with the end of QE2 marking the end to more than $600 billion in monetary stimulus, traders, fittingly, went on a buying spree on the final day of the second quarter, whipping up stocks to sell to anybody willing to buy somewhere down the road.
The finality to the Fed's second attempt to re-invigorate the US economy has had some dubious effects, such as pushing crude oil and other commodities - with the notable exception of the precious metals - to nose-bleed levels, spiking interest rates (the 10-year is up more than 40 basis points in just the past three days) and generally applying relief to the banks, who have parked excess reserves at the Fed, without having done a thing to improve the horrific states of the housing and jobs markets. The US dollar is also down substantially against other currencies.
When the history books are written, QE1 and QE2 will be seen from the prism of a new present, and the look back will reveal whether or not the stimulus help or hastened the end of the fiat money era. For now, it continues to be an exercise in futility to bet against the Fed. Shorts have been burned repeatedly, as the flavor of fresh, daily money proved too difficult to resist for speculators.
With it over, the markets will have to go it alone, without the assistance or accommodation of the Federal Reserve, though it should be noted that the Fed stands ready to print more dollars and pump the banks further with liquidity at extraordinarily low rates. On top of that, the federal fund rate remains at 0.25-0.00%, an historical low, both of level and time. The rates have been down at those levels for nearly three years.
With half a year in the books, the major indices sport marginal gains for the year, bolstered by the past four days of hope and reckless buying. The markets even ignored another in a series of poor reports from the BLS on initial unemployment claims, which again came in higher than the rosy expectations, at 428,000, a drop of one thousand from the previous week, which supposedly was reason enough to cheer.
With one trading session remaining before the 4th of July holiday, not much is expected on Friday, as most of the big players will already be at their beach homes in the Hamptons or aboard their yachts. Yes, it is good to be rich.
Dow 12,414.34, +152.92 (1.25%)
NASDAQ 2,773.52, +33.03 (1.21%)
S&P 500 1,320.64, +13.23 (1.01%)
NYSE Composite 8,319.10, +90.60 (1.10%)
Advancers led decliners, 4774-1827. NASDAQ new highs: 103; new lows: 35. NYSE new highs: 112; new lows: 12. Combined, 215 new highs, 47 new lows. Volume was consistent with Wednesday's flow rate, nothing surprising there.
NASDAQ Volume 1,837,387,750.00
NYSE Volume 4,199,619,000
Crude continued to rise, gaining 65 cents, to $95.42. Expect to be gouged for gas no matter where you live in America this weekend. Though the price of oil has fallen over the past month, it has surged in the past week.
Gold dropped $11.90, to 1499.90, while silver also took it on the chin, losing 20 cents, to $34.68.
It should be clear to everyone by now that fighting the Fed is a losing proposition, and, with the markets front-loaded for the primary dealers, there's no margin for error for the individual investor. For the present, it's up, up and away for stocks. Let's see how long it lasts.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Greece Passes Austerity; Next Up: US Debt Limit
While there was little doubt that the Greek parliament would "do the right thing" and pass the 5-year austerity package in order to secure another $17 billion in their continuing slavish relationship with the IMF, ECB and EU, the results on the streets of Athens suggest that the plan may not be to the liking of the average Greek, if there is such a creature.
Imagine this happening in the United States. A consortium of banks hold the US government hostage, saying, in effect, "do this, or we cut off your allowance." The this being the layoff of thousands of government employees, wage cuts for others, a 10% tax increase and the selling off (privatization) of state assets, one wonders how the Greek populace will like living in abject poverty for the remainder of their lives. In America, one need not wonder. It would most likely pass, but the popular fury and anger would be ferocious.
So it is in Greece, where protesters hailed rocks and stocks at police throughout the day and police returned with salvos of tear gas. There was a great deal of looting and confrontation with the police, but few arrests. It seems the Greek police, some of whom will be paid less in a few weeks than they are now, or may not have jobs at all, have a bit of a heart for their countrymen and women.
Essentially, along with the 10% tax increase, services will be cut by about 25%, along with available government positions and wages. $50 in Greek assets will be privatized, begging the question of just what the Parthenon may be worth to some European oligarch-trash who wish to add it to their art collection.
The measure passed with a vote of 155-138, with some abstentions, since the Greek parliament is comprised of 300 members. But one has to wonder just how long it will last before the money-starved Greeks begin to turn on the government again and again, seeing the bailout as nothing more than another stalling tactic for a bankrupt nation and largesse for the elitist bankers.
Stocks and commodities both were buoyed by the passage, as the globalists averted another crisis in the flawed and corrupt fiat money system. So, the result, higher prices for everything, except, of course, wages.
The next chink in the armor to be fixed would be the US insolvency issue, that of raising the debt debt ceiling so the world's largest net creditor can continue to borrow and spend until the elections of 2012, at least. The deadline of August 2nd approaches with all due haste, though both houses of congress will not be convened at the same time, if they keep to their schedules.
The House was already in recess this week and will be until July 5th, though the senate recess - scheduled for July 4-10, is in doubt, with Democrats seeking to cancel it, and Republicans all too willing to stay in Pro Forma session, fearing recess appointments by the President.
With any luck, the tow houses of financial horror could actually do some deal-making between the 10t of July and the August 2 deadline, and that would be almost a surety, as both houses will recess on August 8 and not return until September 5, after Labor Day and well beyond the statutory constraints of passing a new debt ceiling.
Just like in Greece, however, it's expected that the senate and the president will approve some kind of deal at the last moment, ensuring maximum discomfort and anxiety for the good people of America. Of course, any talk of a balanced budget amendment, currently being espoused by various Republicans, should be recognized immediately as a complete sham, though there is some hope that some semblance of spending restraint may be written into any new bill. The long money is on the government beating the deadline by days and getting back to doing what they do best, spending money they don't have.
Dow 12,261.42, +72.73 (0.60%)
NASDAQ 2,740.49, +11.18 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,307.41, +10.74 (0.83%)
NYSE Composite 8,228.50, +92.52 (1.14%)
Gainers beat losers by a solid margin, 4185-2361. On the NASDAQ, new highs were better than new lows by a 100-29 margin, while on the NYSE, the new highs outnumbered new lows, 81-14. The combined total of 181 new highs to 43 new lows suggests that we're back to "risk on" for the foreseeable future, though, being summer, a sideways trend always has great potential. Volume was light, but not actually awful.
NASDAQ Volume 1,816,885,000
NYSE Volume 4,316,723,500
WTI crude futures rose remarkably again, up $1.88, to $94.77, along with gasoline, which has been rocketing of late. The most recent price gouges have not shown up at the punp yet, though they surely will by the weekend. AAA reports that the average price of a gallon of unleaded regular is $3.54, with higher price in the more populous states of the Northeast and West coast.
Gold got a little nibble of a bid, rising $9.10, to $1511.20. Silver spiked 92 cents, to $34.86.
Tomorrow morning initial unemployment claims numbers may do damage to the current three-day rally in stocks, though a positive report could produce more cries of "soft patch" and a continuation of the "risk on" trade.
Imagine this happening in the United States. A consortium of banks hold the US government hostage, saying, in effect, "do this, or we cut off your allowance." The this being the layoff of thousands of government employees, wage cuts for others, a 10% tax increase and the selling off (privatization) of state assets, one wonders how the Greek populace will like living in abject poverty for the remainder of their lives. In America, one need not wonder. It would most likely pass, but the popular fury and anger would be ferocious.
So it is in Greece, where protesters hailed rocks and stocks at police throughout the day and police returned with salvos of tear gas. There was a great deal of looting and confrontation with the police, but few arrests. It seems the Greek police, some of whom will be paid less in a few weeks than they are now, or may not have jobs at all, have a bit of a heart for their countrymen and women.
Essentially, along with the 10% tax increase, services will be cut by about 25%, along with available government positions and wages. $50 in Greek assets will be privatized, begging the question of just what the Parthenon may be worth to some European oligarch-trash who wish to add it to their art collection.
The measure passed with a vote of 155-138, with some abstentions, since the Greek parliament is comprised of 300 members. But one has to wonder just how long it will last before the money-starved Greeks begin to turn on the government again and again, seeing the bailout as nothing more than another stalling tactic for a bankrupt nation and largesse for the elitist bankers.
Stocks and commodities both were buoyed by the passage, as the globalists averted another crisis in the flawed and corrupt fiat money system. So, the result, higher prices for everything, except, of course, wages.
The next chink in the armor to be fixed would be the US insolvency issue, that of raising the debt debt ceiling so the world's largest net creditor can continue to borrow and spend until the elections of 2012, at least. The deadline of August 2nd approaches with all due haste, though both houses of congress will not be convened at the same time, if they keep to their schedules.
The House was already in recess this week and will be until July 5th, though the senate recess - scheduled for July 4-10, is in doubt, with Democrats seeking to cancel it, and Republicans all too willing to stay in Pro Forma session, fearing recess appointments by the President.
With any luck, the tow houses of financial horror could actually do some deal-making between the 10t of July and the August 2 deadline, and that would be almost a surety, as both houses will recess on August 8 and not return until September 5, after Labor Day and well beyond the statutory constraints of passing a new debt ceiling.
Just like in Greece, however, it's expected that the senate and the president will approve some kind of deal at the last moment, ensuring maximum discomfort and anxiety for the good people of America. Of course, any talk of a balanced budget amendment, currently being espoused by various Republicans, should be recognized immediately as a complete sham, though there is some hope that some semblance of spending restraint may be written into any new bill. The long money is on the government beating the deadline by days and getting back to doing what they do best, spending money they don't have.
Dow 12,261.42, +72.73 (0.60%)
NASDAQ 2,740.49, +11.18 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,307.41, +10.74 (0.83%)
NYSE Composite 8,228.50, +92.52 (1.14%)
Gainers beat losers by a solid margin, 4185-2361. On the NASDAQ, new highs were better than new lows by a 100-29 margin, while on the NYSE, the new highs outnumbered new lows, 81-14. The combined total of 181 new highs to 43 new lows suggests that we're back to "risk on" for the foreseeable future, though, being summer, a sideways trend always has great potential. Volume was light, but not actually awful.
NASDAQ Volume 1,816,885,000
NYSE Volume 4,316,723,500
WTI crude futures rose remarkably again, up $1.88, to $94.77, along with gasoline, which has been rocketing of late. The most recent price gouges have not shown up at the punp yet, though they surely will by the weekend. AAA reports that the average price of a gallon of unleaded regular is $3.54, with higher price in the more populous states of the Northeast and West coast.
Gold got a little nibble of a bid, rising $9.10, to $1511.20. Silver spiked 92 cents, to $34.86.
Tomorrow morning initial unemployment claims numbers may do damage to the current three-day rally in stocks, though a positive report could produce more cries of "soft patch" and a continuation of the "risk on" trade.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Last Gasp or Last Hurrah?
As another day-long rally appeared out of the blue for the second consecutive day on virtually no news, one must question the tendency of the market to gain so vigorously without the benefit of positive reinforcement.
With stocks being nearly the only place to find yield these days, there has to be adequate risk appetite, and that's where the low volume standard comes into play. On these monstrous upside days, the volume has remained quiet, signaling to the astute investor that such rallies are nothing more than algorithm-inspired events and have little to nothing to do with news flow, fundamentals or general sentiment.
As such, there's little to report on today's ramp-job than to mention that the Greek parliament will vote on the austerity plan by which they will get the next portion of their bailout money on Wednesday morning, 5:00 am EDT, so as goes the vote, so will stocks. A failure for the parliament to pass the measure would result - mostly likely - in a massive default by the Greek government or some other form of restructuring, because, as we all know, bankers cannot lose money, even if they lend to the worst, non-performing, severe-credit-risk entities, like sovereign nations such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
If the vote passes, the people will riot and burn most of Athens back to it's root of civilization foundations. Thus, nobody wins, except the banks, though it could be a hollow, short-lived victory as not only Greece, but other EU nations, have debt well beyond their ability to repay, no matter how much they tax the populace.
We have reached a tipping point in the global economy and the sooner politicians and bankers realize that their Ponzi scheme has hit a wall, the quicker the world can get back on track to some normalized kind of functioning reality. Until then, though, it's risk on, rally on!
Dow 12,188.61, +145.05 (1.20%)
NASDAQ 2,729.31, +41.03 (1.53%)
S&P 500 1,296.67, +16.57 (1.29%)
NYSE Composite 8,135.98, +104.90 (1.31%)
Advancers finished well ahead of declining issues, 5045-1528. NASDAQ new highs: 100, new lows: 22. On the NYSE, 75 new highs, 23 new lows, bringing the combined total to 175 new highs and 45 new lows on the day. As decisive as those results may be, skepticism abounds due to the aforementioned thoughts and the incredibly low volume.
NASDAQ Volume 1,660,870,000.00
NYSE Volume 3,650,911,750
Oil rose $2.28, to $92.89, defying all manner of logic. Someday soon, hopefully the assholes (that's what they are and that's what I'm calling them) trading oil futures are going to be hit with a bolt of lightning and the realization that absurdly high oil prices are a detriment to global growth. It could not happen soon enough.
Gold was up 4.10, to $1501.00, while silver rose 36 cents, to $33.94, both breaking a three-day losing streak.
With stocks being nearly the only place to find yield these days, there has to be adequate risk appetite, and that's where the low volume standard comes into play. On these monstrous upside days, the volume has remained quiet, signaling to the astute investor that such rallies are nothing more than algorithm-inspired events and have little to nothing to do with news flow, fundamentals or general sentiment.
As such, there's little to report on today's ramp-job than to mention that the Greek parliament will vote on the austerity plan by which they will get the next portion of their bailout money on Wednesday morning, 5:00 am EDT, so as goes the vote, so will stocks. A failure for the parliament to pass the measure would result - mostly likely - in a massive default by the Greek government or some other form of restructuring, because, as we all know, bankers cannot lose money, even if they lend to the worst, non-performing, severe-credit-risk entities, like sovereign nations such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
If the vote passes, the people will riot and burn most of Athens back to it's root of civilization foundations. Thus, nobody wins, except the banks, though it could be a hollow, short-lived victory as not only Greece, but other EU nations, have debt well beyond their ability to repay, no matter how much they tax the populace.
We have reached a tipping point in the global economy and the sooner politicians and bankers realize that their Ponzi scheme has hit a wall, the quicker the world can get back on track to some normalized kind of functioning reality. Until then, though, it's risk on, rally on!
Dow 12,188.61, +145.05 (1.20%)
NASDAQ 2,729.31, +41.03 (1.53%)
S&P 500 1,296.67, +16.57 (1.29%)
NYSE Composite 8,135.98, +104.90 (1.31%)
Advancers finished well ahead of declining issues, 5045-1528. NASDAQ new highs: 100, new lows: 22. On the NYSE, 75 new highs, 23 new lows, bringing the combined total to 175 new highs and 45 new lows on the day. As decisive as those results may be, skepticism abounds due to the aforementioned thoughts and the incredibly low volume.
NASDAQ Volume 1,660,870,000.00
NYSE Volume 3,650,911,750
Oil rose $2.28, to $92.89, defying all manner of logic. Someday soon, hopefully the assholes (that's what they are and that's what I'm calling them) trading oil futures are going to be hit with a bolt of lightning and the realization that absurdly high oil prices are a detriment to global growth. It could not happen soon enough.
Gold was up 4.10, to $1501.00, while silver rose 36 cents, to $33.94, both breaking a three-day losing streak.
Keeping your budget in order is easier on the web
With so much focus on money, finances and personal accountability, individuals need sphisticated ways to manage both their money and their time. From online brokerage accounts to credit cards and bank accounts, retirement accounts, 401Ks and the like, keeping track of where your is coming from and going to is a necessity.
The old fashioned paper budget and ledger has gone the way of the pocket calculator and slide rule. More and more people are turning to tools on the web to track and quantify their cash and investments.
One such web tool is a site called Mint, which is a free online service which allows you to add all of your important financial information into your own secure, customizable platform.
Users enter their bank account information, plus information on loans, credit cards, home equity lines, and other regularly-used accounts, such as a stock account.
Then, once it's all set up, the software pulls all the information together and keeps it updated, employing bank-level security so your information doesn't fall into the wrong hands.
The site offers a high level of reliability and a one-click experience to see where and how your money is being employed. There are additional tools, such as auto-generated charts of where your money is being spent, and a budget app that can be adjusted to suit a personal preference.
Spending too much on gas, or clothes? Set up the budget to limit those expenses and put more money into other areas.
Mint is a great free solution designed to assist everyone in managing their finances.
The old fashioned paper budget and ledger has gone the way of the pocket calculator and slide rule. More and more people are turning to tools on the web to track and quantify their cash and investments.
One such web tool is a site called Mint, which is a free online service which allows you to add all of your important financial information into your own secure, customizable platform.
Users enter their bank account information, plus information on loans, credit cards, home equity lines, and other regularly-used accounts, such as a stock account.
Then, once it's all set up, the software pulls all the information together and keeps it updated, employing bank-level security so your information doesn't fall into the wrong hands.
The site offers a high level of reliability and a one-click experience to see where and how your money is being employed. There are additional tools, such as auto-generated charts of where your money is being spent, and a budget app that can be adjusted to suit a personal preference.
Spending too much on gas, or clothes? Set up the budget to limit those expenses and put more money into other areas.
Mint is a great free solution designed to assist everyone in managing their finances.
Monday, June 27, 2011
No News, So Stocks Must Go Higher
The saying, "no news is good news" accurately described the tenor of trade today on Wall Street.
Without any catalyzing headlines to spook the market - as has been the case so often in the past two months or so - investors (or rather, the algorithms that make the trades) bought stocks like they were the next best thing to sliced bread.
Amazingly, among the leading sectors was financials, which have been battered for the better part of the last six months. Others doing better than the financials included conglomerates, technology and energy.
But the real telling number came from the dollar index, as the Euro rallied on hopes that the Greek parliament would vote in favor of accepting the austerity plan from the IMF and keep the depreciating Euros flowing into the system. On that, the dollar was considerably weaker, which no doubt helped stocks. The dollar index was down 0.24 to 75.34, a level at which it could stabilize, just below 76, which it cannot break out above from, and just off the nominal lows at 71-72.
If the Fed wants a weak dollar, but not any weaker, that's likely what they're going to get, for now, though how that translates into a triple-digit move on the Dow is known only to those insde the minds of the machines.
Today's move is still rather curious, considering that Greece will vote on the austerity measures in less than two days and the margin of passage is down to about one vote, as four members of Papandreou's 155-seat majority have already expressed a reluctance to vote in favor of the measure. The Greek parliament has 300 members, so the situation is dicey, especially with nationwide strikes planeed for Tuesday and Wednesday.
But, since nothing happened today to unravel the fiat currency regime a bit further, stocks finished widely positive, though well off their intraday highs.
Dow 12,043.56, +108.98 (0.91%)
NASDAQ 2,688.28, +35.39 (1.33%)
S&P 500 1,280.10, +11.65 (0.92%)
NYSE Composite 8,031.08, +56.36 (0.71%)
As expected, advancers clobbered decliners, 4366-2198. On the NASDAQ, 64 new highs, but a startling 51 new lows, a bit odd for such a healthy positive day. The NYSE saw a similar circumstance, with 52 new highs, but 39 new lows. The combined figure, therefore comes to 116 new highs and 90 new lows, close to flat. Volume was back to its usual pedestrian levels, another indication that the rally has short legs, if any at all.
NASDAQ Volume 1,693,123,125.00
NYSE Volume 3,583,716,000
Oil fell again, briefly trading below $90/barrel, before rallying back to close at $90.61, down 55 cents on the day. Gold was battered down for a third consecutive session, losing $6.10, to $1496.20. Silver is apparently being made a whipping boy once again by the likes of JP Morgan, dropping 81 cents, to $33.51. That's the lowest close for silver since May 12, when the London daily fix was $32.50 the ounce.
Without any catalyzing headlines to spook the market - as has been the case so often in the past two months or so - investors (or rather, the algorithms that make the trades) bought stocks like they were the next best thing to sliced bread.
Amazingly, among the leading sectors was financials, which have been battered for the better part of the last six months. Others doing better than the financials included conglomerates, technology and energy.
But the real telling number came from the dollar index, as the Euro rallied on hopes that the Greek parliament would vote in favor of accepting the austerity plan from the IMF and keep the depreciating Euros flowing into the system. On that, the dollar was considerably weaker, which no doubt helped stocks. The dollar index was down 0.24 to 75.34, a level at which it could stabilize, just below 76, which it cannot break out above from, and just off the nominal lows at 71-72.
If the Fed wants a weak dollar, but not any weaker, that's likely what they're going to get, for now, though how that translates into a triple-digit move on the Dow is known only to those insde the minds of the machines.
Today's move is still rather curious, considering that Greece will vote on the austerity measures in less than two days and the margin of passage is down to about one vote, as four members of Papandreou's 155-seat majority have already expressed a reluctance to vote in favor of the measure. The Greek parliament has 300 members, so the situation is dicey, especially with nationwide strikes planeed for Tuesday and Wednesday.
But, since nothing happened today to unravel the fiat currency regime a bit further, stocks finished widely positive, though well off their intraday highs.
Dow 12,043.56, +108.98 (0.91%)
NASDAQ 2,688.28, +35.39 (1.33%)
S&P 500 1,280.10, +11.65 (0.92%)
NYSE Composite 8,031.08, +56.36 (0.71%)
As expected, advancers clobbered decliners, 4366-2198. On the NASDAQ, 64 new highs, but a startling 51 new lows, a bit odd for such a healthy positive day. The NYSE saw a similar circumstance, with 52 new highs, but 39 new lows. The combined figure, therefore comes to 116 new highs and 90 new lows, close to flat. Volume was back to its usual pedestrian levels, another indication that the rally has short legs, if any at all.
NASDAQ Volume 1,693,123,125.00
NYSE Volume 3,583,716,000
Oil fell again, briefly trading below $90/barrel, before rallying back to close at $90.61, down 55 cents on the day. Gold was battered down for a third consecutive session, losing $6.10, to $1496.20. Silver is apparently being made a whipping boy once again by the likes of JP Morgan, dropping 81 cents, to $33.51. That's the lowest close for silver since May 12, when the London daily fix was $32.50 the ounce.
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