For the second straight session, the Dow was down while the S&P and NASDAQ sported small gains.
A bifurcated market is often one which is about to change direction, so, since the general direction has been up, up and up, a change would indicate, what, lower prices for stocks?
Bernanke, Yellen and company simply cannot have that, thus, like everything else since 2008, everything depends solely upon the whims of the central bank. So sad.
Aftre the bell, eBay announced 4Q earnings, which were decidedly upbeat, with revenues up 14% from a year ago, and earnings per share of 81 cents, a decisive beat. Additionally, the company announced a $5 billion stock buyback program and also received a proposal from meddling Carl Icahn, who wants to see PayPal split out and an independent company, a move which would make a good deal of sense, since PayPal is the company's main profit driver. Shares soared more than eight percent in after-hours trading.
Netflix also announced fourth-quarter earnings after the bell and absolutely blew out the estimates. The company earned $48 million, or 79 cents per share, during final three months of 2013, compared to $8 million, or 13 cents per share, at the same time in 2012.
Revenue rose 24 percent from the previous year to nearly $1.2 billion and the US subscriber base grew by 2.3 million in the quarter. The stock was up more than 17% in the after-hours.
Look for NASDAQ futures to be up about 25 points prior to Thursday's open.
DOW 16,373.34, -41.10 (-0.25%)
NASDAQ 4,243.00, +17.24 (+0.41%)
S&P 1,844.86, +1.06 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Note 99.02, -0.06 (-0.06%) Yield: 2.87%
NASDAQ Volume 1.88 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.36 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3467-2224
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 424-43
WTI crude oil: 96.73, +1.76
Gold: 1,238.60, -3.20
Silver: 19.84, 0.031
Corn: 426.00, +1.25
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Many Signs Beginning to Appear That Signal the End of the Bull Run
These times, trying for some, are inscrutable for others.
While a small fraction of the population can see the changes in culture, society and technology clear as day, the majority only gets a grasp of the situation when the changes have taken hold and new trends already developed.
We are currently in a period of great change. Two years from today, one will not recognize America. Other countries will undergo massive upheavals. It is already underway.
Look around. The kinds of people - average, middle class folks - you used to see on a regular basis are gone, replaced by walking zombies on food stamps. Get used to it. The welfare-police state is upon us. Alternately, the people who have seen this coming are preparing to prosper. It will get worse before it improves, but, when the current power structure and domination of mega-corporations ultimately fails, small businesses, which have been under the thumb from competition from larger rivals and government regulations gone wild, will emerge, grow and prosper. It's just a matter of time.
As for today's roller-coaster on Wall Street, the movements were up, down, up, with the Dow closing at the mid-point of its 62-point high of the day and the -142-point lows, but still in the red. The S&P and NASDAQ finished with gains, though small.
Reporting prior to the opening bell, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported better-than-expected earnings, but finished the day lower on poor guidance. A similar scenario played out for insurance giant, Travelers (TRV), and cell carrier, Verizon (VZ).
Following the trading close, IBM reported an earnings beat (6.13 ex-items vs. 5.99 est.), but a huge miss on revenues. Analysts were looking for $28.25 billion and got only $27.70 billion.
Sadly, for Big Blue, they are trading at roughly an 11 P/E multiple. The company is a dinosaur and headed for extinction, though that reality is still a way off.
Another slow-footed beast, Texas Instruments (TXN) reported 0.46 per share on revenue of $3.03 billion. Both of these tech behemoths were trading lower in after-hours, with IBM down nearly three percent. Dead money. It's what's not for dinner.
Among the more obvious signs that change is permanent and the bull market in stocks is coming ever closer to a crashing climax:
More are certain to follow.
DOW 16,414.44, -44.12 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ 4,225.76, +28.18 (+0.67%)
S&P 1,843.80, +5.10 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Note 99.30, +0.18 (+0.18%) Yield: 2.83%
NASDAQ Volume 1.91 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.75 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3649-2079
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 466-36
WTI crude oil: 94.99, +0.62
Gold: 1,241.80, -10.10
Silver: 19.87, -0.434
Corn: 425.00, +1.00
While a small fraction of the population can see the changes in culture, society and technology clear as day, the majority only gets a grasp of the situation when the changes have taken hold and new trends already developed.
We are currently in a period of great change. Two years from today, one will not recognize America. Other countries will undergo massive upheavals. It is already underway.
Look around. The kinds of people - average, middle class folks - you used to see on a regular basis are gone, replaced by walking zombies on food stamps. Get used to it. The welfare-police state is upon us. Alternately, the people who have seen this coming are preparing to prosper. It will get worse before it improves, but, when the current power structure and domination of mega-corporations ultimately fails, small businesses, which have been under the thumb from competition from larger rivals and government regulations gone wild, will emerge, grow and prosper. It's just a matter of time.
As for today's roller-coaster on Wall Street, the movements were up, down, up, with the Dow closing at the mid-point of its 62-point high of the day and the -142-point lows, but still in the red. The S&P and NASDAQ finished with gains, though small.
Reporting prior to the opening bell, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported better-than-expected earnings, but finished the day lower on poor guidance. A similar scenario played out for insurance giant, Travelers (TRV), and cell carrier, Verizon (VZ).
Following the trading close, IBM reported an earnings beat (6.13 ex-items vs. 5.99 est.), but a huge miss on revenues. Analysts were looking for $28.25 billion and got only $27.70 billion.
Sadly, for Big Blue, they are trading at roughly an 11 P/E multiple. The company is a dinosaur and headed for extinction, though that reality is still a way off.
Another slow-footed beast, Texas Instruments (TXN) reported 0.46 per share on revenue of $3.03 billion. Both of these tech behemoths were trading lower in after-hours, with IBM down nearly three percent. Dead money. It's what's not for dinner.
Among the more obvious signs that change is permanent and the bull market in stocks is coming ever closer to a crashing climax:
- Sears, JC Penny and Target.
- Analyst on CNBC says stocks will fall 10%, then fumbles targets of 16,000 on the Dow and 1800 on the S&P. Basic math: FAIL.
- Chris Christie
- Hillary
- Mohamed El-Erian steps down as Pimco CEO
- Another former Pimco exec, Neel Kashkari announces he is running for governor of California.
- Complaints that the Dow is down because some stocks are priced too high. (At least there's a solution for that.)
More are certain to follow.
DOW 16,414.44, -44.12 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ 4,225.76, +28.18 (+0.67%)
S&P 1,843.80, +5.10 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Note 99.30, +0.18 (+0.18%) Yield: 2.83%
NASDAQ Volume 1.91 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.75 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3649-2079
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 466-36
WTI crude oil: 94.99, +0.62
Gold: 1,241.80, -10.10
Silver: 19.87, -0.434
Corn: 425.00, +1.00
Friday, January 17, 2014
Dow, NASDAQ Up for Week, Dow, S&P Down Thus Far in 2014
Stocks ended the week in truly bizarre fashion, with the Dow up, but the S&P and NASDAQ lower. Obviously, trading was not uniform across the indices and the Dow was higher due primarily to gains by American Express (AXP) and Visa (V), which really skewed the average, as there were only ten stocks showing gains on the day, versus 20 which ended the session lower.
While the market is somewhat bifurcated and, and maybe even trifurcated, the various swings on the indices are caused mainly by excessive trading in story stocks, those which have reported earnings either after the previous day's close or in the morning prior to the open.
Overall, earnings season is just barely underway, with 10% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported, but the distressing trend is that fully half of those companies have missed earnings estimates and top-line growth (revenues) continues to just beat or fall short, a pattern five years running that is giving not just investors, but the markets themselves, pause.
There hasn't been much progress in terms of the January Barometer, and with Monday a holiday, markets are closed, leaving just nine sessions remaining in January. Time flies, and, it seems some money wants to flee away with it.
What is down solidly is the yield on the 10-year note, which hit a 2014 low of 2.82 today, less than two weeks after seeping through the 3.00% mark. Despite the Fed's tapering by $10 billion, its $85 billion per month bond purchase program (QE by any other name), interest rates have not followed the game plan.
What is up? Gold. Higher by 4% so far this year, and, likewise, silver, also higher by about 4%.
For the week:
Dow +21.51
S&P 500 -3.67
NASDAQ +22.92
For the year:
Dow -118.10
S&P 500 -9.66
NASDAQ +20.99
DOW 16,458.56, +41.55 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ 4,197.58, -21.11 (-0.50%)
S&P 1,838.70, -7.19 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Note 99.37, +0.31 (+0.31%) Yield: 2.82%
NASDAQ Volume 2.10 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.60 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2337-3366
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 352-38
WTI crude oil: 94.37, +0.41
Gold: 1,251.90, +11.70
Silver: 20.30, +0.25
Corn: 424.00, -4.00
While the market is somewhat bifurcated and, and maybe even trifurcated, the various swings on the indices are caused mainly by excessive trading in story stocks, those which have reported earnings either after the previous day's close or in the morning prior to the open.
Overall, earnings season is just barely underway, with 10% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported, but the distressing trend is that fully half of those companies have missed earnings estimates and top-line growth (revenues) continues to just beat or fall short, a pattern five years running that is giving not just investors, but the markets themselves, pause.
There hasn't been much progress in terms of the January Barometer, and with Monday a holiday, markets are closed, leaving just nine sessions remaining in January. Time flies, and, it seems some money wants to flee away with it.
What is down solidly is the yield on the 10-year note, which hit a 2014 low of 2.82 today, less than two weeks after seeping through the 3.00% mark. Despite the Fed's tapering by $10 billion, its $85 billion per month bond purchase program (QE by any other name), interest rates have not followed the game plan.
What is up? Gold. Higher by 4% so far this year, and, likewise, silver, also higher by about 4%.
For the week:
Dow +21.51
S&P 500 -3.67
NASDAQ +22.92
For the year:
Dow -118.10
S&P 500 -9.66
NASDAQ +20.99
DOW 16,458.56, +41.55 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ 4,197.58, -21.11 (-0.50%)
S&P 1,838.70, -7.19 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Note 99.37, +0.31 (+0.31%) Yield: 2.82%
NASDAQ Volume 2.10 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.60 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2337-3366
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 352-38
WTI crude oil: 94.37, +0.41
Gold: 1,251.90, +11.70
Silver: 20.30, +0.25
Corn: 424.00, -4.00
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Stock Stories: Best Buy, Intel, Citi, more; What Does Friday Hold; Up or Down?
Markets reversed direction again on Thursday, evening out the week at two down, two up sessions with a weekly gain or loss for the major averages hanging in the balance, all coming down to Friday's closing bell.
The Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points below break even for the week, the S&P is already in the green, by a scant 3.52 points and the NASDAQ is defiantly 44.02 into positive territory, so unless Friday is dramatically lower, there's a very good chance that all three averages will finish the week with positive returns. Jolly good.
Interest rates, particularly the 10-year note, have been trending gradually lower through the first two weeks of 2014, with the lid fully on inflation expectations after this week's PPI and CPI nothing-burger-type data.
Making headlines was Best Buy (BBY), the remaining national electronics retailer, was absolutely bludgeoned, down more than 28% on the day, after reporting total holiday same-store sales dropped 0.8% from the previous year, while analysts so an increase of 0.5%. Total revenue declined to $11.45 billion in the holiday period from $11.75 billion a year earlier, and the company lowered its fourth-quarter guidance. With fourth-quarter and full-year results still forthcoming, investors took a quick exit, en masse, leaving many searching for answers to the retail conundrum that was the 2013 holiday season.
Citigroup reported adjusted earnings of $0.82 a share which missed on estimates of $0.96. Revenue also missed coming in at $17.94 billion versus estimates of $18.18 billion, down from last year's $18.66 billion. The company also announced it will replace all customer debit cards involved in the Target data breach last month, sending shares down 2.39 to 52.60 at the close, a loss of 4.35%.
After the bell, Intel reported a slight miss at 0.51 cents per share on estimates of 0.52 and issued some downbeat guidance, sending shares lower by more than 3% in after-hours trading.
American Express (AXP) and Capital One (COF) each missed on their fourth-quarter reports, sending shares down in the after hours. American Express reported a one-cent miss (1.25 vs. 1.26), while credit provider misses by a solid dime - 1.45 versus expected 1.55 - prompting the question from investors, "what's in their wallet?" Clearly, it was not what they were hoping.
DOW 16,417.01, -64.93 (-0.39%)
NASDAQ 4,218.69, +3.80 (+0.09%)
S&P 1,845.89, -2.49 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Note 99.15, +0.91 (+0.92%) Yield: 2.85%
NASDAQ Volume 1.83 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.46 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3069-2613
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 382-38
WTI crude oil: 93.96, -0.21
Gold: 1,240.20, +1.90
Silver: 20.05, -0.08
Corn: 428.00, +2.25
The Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points below break even for the week, the S&P is already in the green, by a scant 3.52 points and the NASDAQ is defiantly 44.02 into positive territory, so unless Friday is dramatically lower, there's a very good chance that all three averages will finish the week with positive returns. Jolly good.
Interest rates, particularly the 10-year note, have been trending gradually lower through the first two weeks of 2014, with the lid fully on inflation expectations after this week's PPI and CPI nothing-burger-type data.
Making headlines was Best Buy (BBY), the remaining national electronics retailer, was absolutely bludgeoned, down more than 28% on the day, after reporting total holiday same-store sales dropped 0.8% from the previous year, while analysts so an increase of 0.5%. Total revenue declined to $11.45 billion in the holiday period from $11.75 billion a year earlier, and the company lowered its fourth-quarter guidance. With fourth-quarter and full-year results still forthcoming, investors took a quick exit, en masse, leaving many searching for answers to the retail conundrum that was the 2013 holiday season.
Citigroup reported adjusted earnings of $0.82 a share which missed on estimates of $0.96. Revenue also missed coming in at $17.94 billion versus estimates of $18.18 billion, down from last year's $18.66 billion. The company also announced it will replace all customer debit cards involved in the Target data breach last month, sending shares down 2.39 to 52.60 at the close, a loss of 4.35%.
After the bell, Intel reported a slight miss at 0.51 cents per share on estimates of 0.52 and issued some downbeat guidance, sending shares lower by more than 3% in after-hours trading.
American Express (AXP) and Capital One (COF) each missed on their fourth-quarter reports, sending shares down in the after hours. American Express reported a one-cent miss (1.25 vs. 1.26), while credit provider misses by a solid dime - 1.45 versus expected 1.55 - prompting the question from investors, "what's in their wallet?" Clearly, it was not what they were hoping.
DOW 16,417.01, -64.93 (-0.39%)
NASDAQ 4,218.69, +3.80 (+0.09%)
S&P 1,845.89, -2.49 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Note 99.15, +0.91 (+0.92%) Yield: 2.85%
NASDAQ Volume 1.83 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.46 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3069-2613
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 382-38
WTI crude oil: 93.96, -0.21
Gold: 1,240.20, +1.90
Silver: 20.05, -0.08
Corn: 428.00, +2.25
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
S&P Close at All-Time High; January Barometer and 2014 Now a 'Go'
Apologies are in order for the excitement generated by Monday's selloff. We have been fooled again.
By .02 cents, the S&P set a record high close; the NASDAQ is at 13 1/2 year highs and the Dow is closing in on all-time highs, again, something it did no fewer than 50 times in 2013.
The markets will not relent in their ever-higher pursuit until the Fed substantially reduces its QE regimen.
That's all one needs to know, for now, and until it's too late. Investors will likely be afforded plenty of time to "get out of Dodge" when the trend reverses. Until then, buy the dips, buy the all-time highs, buy, buy, buy stocks and look for Treasuries to head lower, with support for the 10-year note in the 2.63% area. Give it a few weeks time, like after the non-event which will be the raising of the US debt ceiling to close to $20 trillion in early February.
JC Penny (JCP) announced after the bell that it will close 33 stores and eliminate 2000 jobs as part of their strategic initiative. Good strategy, downsizing. Five of the stores are located in Wisconsin and three are in Pennsylvania. There should be some pretty good sales soon at these store closing locations, but, consumers are advised to pay cash, a la Target. What's not to like?
DOW 16,481.94, +108.08 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ 4,214.88, +31.87 (+0.76%)
S&P 1,848.38, +9.50 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Note 98.74, +0.44 (+0.45%) Yield: 2.90%
NASDAQ Volume 1.96 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.71 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3687-1953
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 490-31
WTI crude oil: 94.17, +1.58
Gold: 1,238.30, -7.10
Silver: 20.13, -0.148
Corn: 425.75, -5.75
By .02 cents, the S&P set a record high close; the NASDAQ is at 13 1/2 year highs and the Dow is closing in on all-time highs, again, something it did no fewer than 50 times in 2013.
The markets will not relent in their ever-higher pursuit until the Fed substantially reduces its QE regimen.
That's all one needs to know, for now, and until it's too late. Investors will likely be afforded plenty of time to "get out of Dodge" when the trend reverses. Until then, buy the dips, buy the all-time highs, buy, buy, buy stocks and look for Treasuries to head lower, with support for the 10-year note in the 2.63% area. Give it a few weeks time, like after the non-event which will be the raising of the US debt ceiling to close to $20 trillion in early February.
JC Penny (JCP) announced after the bell that it will close 33 stores and eliminate 2000 jobs as part of their strategic initiative. Good strategy, downsizing. Five of the stores are located in Wisconsin and three are in Pennsylvania. There should be some pretty good sales soon at these store closing locations, but, consumers are advised to pay cash, a la Target. What's not to like?
DOW 16,481.94, +108.08 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ 4,214.88, +31.87 (+0.76%)
S&P 1,848.38, +9.50 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Note 98.74, +0.44 (+0.45%) Yield: 2.90%
NASDAQ Volume 1.96 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.71 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3687-1953
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 490-31
WTI crude oil: 94.17, +1.58
Gold: 1,238.30, -7.10
Silver: 20.13, -0.148
Corn: 425.75, -5.75
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