Showing posts with label Neel Kashkari. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Neel Kashkari. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

The COVID-19 Cure Figures To Be Far Worse Than The Disease As The World Enters A Global Depression

Incredible. Surreal. Amazing. Ludicrous. Ridiculous.

Those are just a few of the choicest words to describe Tuesday's equity rally in US stocks. Nothing says "out-of-touch" better than a nearly four percent gain on the NASDAQ when 75% of the world's population is under some form of restrictive lockdown, quarantine, or other form of social suppression.

While millions of soon to be extinct working class Americans citizens patiently wait at their homes for a $1200 check from the federal government, their future taxes flowed to Wall Street in currency supplied by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve, lining the pockets of billionaires with even more filthy lucre.

As nothing was learned from the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09, the Federal Reserve has become the de facto World Central Bank (hat tip to the Robin Hood of Wall Street, Gregory Mannarino, for that new coinage), backstopping stocks and bonds and ETFs and any kind of financial instrument not tied to a physical asset such as gold or silver. The Fed is buying, hand over fist, treasury debt, mortgage-backed securities, commercial paper which funds the day-to-day needs of major corporations, foreign debt, and even junk bonds.

This is what the so-called Modern Monetary Theory looks like in practice. Markets rigged via infinite quantitative easing (QE), according to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, whose main claim to fame is as the overseer of TARP, the $700 billion bailout of the banking system in 2008. Forget free markets. Forget fair wages and salaries. Forget the Bill of Rights and your guarantees of free speech, freedom of the press, freedom of religion. All that is gone, thanks to the worldwide worship of the world currency, the US Dollar.

Want to see somebody lie with a straight face? Watch Kashkari's 60 Minutes interview from March 23. During the interview, Kashkari mentions printed currency on a number of occasions, saying things that suggest physical cash will be available through banks and ATMs. This is a patent untruth. There are only $1.7 trillion physical Federal Reserve Notes in circulation, enough for just more than $5,000 for every American citizen, an impossibility, since much of the printed bills circulate overseas.



Here's another bit of wisdom from a former Fed Chairman:
"And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion."
― Ben Bernanke (2010)

Kashkari's ravings aside, the Fed probably couldn't print enough actual cash - besides it being the job of the US Treasury Department - to satisfy the ongoing needs of American business. However, via the brilliance of underfunding the Main Street bailout for small business (the so-called "forgivable" loans) in the bill recently passed by congress and signed by President Trump, when the effects of lockdowns and business closures are finally assessed, there won't be that many small businesses to fund. Current estimates suggest there is only enough money in the $349 billion allocated to finance the payrolls of less than half the small businesses in America for six to eight weeks.

In a recent survey by Lending Tree 64% of small business owners who applied for emergency funding reported that they were having trouble getting approved.

Meanwhile, employers' doors are closed in counties where there have been only a handful of coronavirus cases reported. Its overkill on a grand scale, and what's being killed is small business. While many owner-operated restaurants have been forced to shut down, the Burger Kings, McDonalds, and Dominos of the world have remained open, offering deliver or drive-through service and advertising heavily. Americans face a future of limited choice, and those choices aren't very appealing.

With the president and governors of various states arguing over who gets to call the shots on re-opening the economy, small businesses are going broke and out of business permanently. The closed up storefronts that have been a familiar sight in small towns across America for the past decade are soon to become a feature of cities and once-healthy suburbs. The commercial real estate market is going to collapse along with residential real estate. Thinking that the process of foreclosure in the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis was a nightmare, what happens in real estate and property rental markets over the next few years is going to be mind-blowing.

The coronavirus is real. Government response, complete with lockdowns, travel restrictions, violations of civil rights, business closures, and assorted "stimulus" packages, is a hoax, put in place to cover up the massive bailout needed to keep Wall Street's stock market above water. Stocks clambered down more then 20% in March only to rise from those losses in April, while the entire country is virtually out of business. This is the kind of government Americans get for electing people who serve only themselves and their campaign contributors.

Some day, Americans will be going back to work. Not all of them, maybe not even half of them. The current condition is only the beginning of a depression that will rival the 1920s. The coronavirus may kill 60,000, but the "cure" will kill millions.

At the Close, Tuesday, April 14, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 23,949.76, +558.99 (+2.39%)
NASDAQ: 8,515.74, +323.32 (+3.95%)
S&P 500: 2,846.06, +84.43 (+3.06%)
NYSE: 11,172.20, +222.67 (+2.03%)

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Fed Raises Rates, Sets Out Asset Disposal Plan

As was widely anticipated, the FOMC of the Federal Reserve voted 8-1 to raise the federal funds overnight lending rate 25 basis points, from 0.75-1.00% to 100-1.25%. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was the lone member to vote to leave the rate unchanged. The Fed also raised the prime rate - to which many credit cards, car and mortgage loans are indexed - by 1/4%. The prime - or Primary, in fed-speak - rate now stands at 1.75%.

While the move was telegraphed to the market well in advance, the Fed's decision to release some details of its plan to unwind its enormous balance sheet of over $4.5 trillion, came as something of a shock to investors, characterized by the sullen market reaction.

About the only assets that didn't go down following the Fed's release were Dow and the dollar, the DJIA saved by the usual antics of the altos or the PPT, with the traditional hockey stick save in the last half hour, which also lifted the S&P, the Comp., and NASDAQ from deeper losses.

The dollar index rallied from 96.36 - a seven-month low - earlier in the day, to close at 96.918, a closing loss of just 0.06%. As usual, precious metals were sold down the river in the heavily-rigged futures market. WTI crude oil closed in New York at 44.69, -1.77 (-3.81%). The price is a massive surprise, considering the "summer driving season" has begun. However, the glut of crude on world markets continues to depress prices. Consumers have not yet seen the result at the gas pump, where prices have been relatively stable, despite oil's recent fall from about $52 to the mid-40s.

As usual, the day following the Fed rate decision will offer more clarity on stock direction.

The Fed laid out plans to wind down its multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet, gradually reducing its holdings of Treasuries and agency securities, by decreasing the Fed’s reinvestment of principal payments. Payments will only be reinvested when they exceed preset and self-administered caps, which start out at $6 billion per month for Treasuries and $4 billion per month for agency and mortgage-backed securities.

Since the Fed sopped up literally trillions worth of garbage MBS and dodgy treasuries during the aftermath of the GFC, the effect of their balance sheet unwind will be an attempt to allow market normalization with the Fed out of the way. While this tactic has been the subject of great scrutiny, without a "buyer of last resort" such as the Federal Reserve, the concern is that interest rates will spiral out of control with inadequate buying interest depressing prices and thus, raising yields beyond reasonable levels.

At present, this has not occurred, In fact, the benchmark 10-year note was exceptionally depressed, closing at a yield of 2.138, but, the Fed hasn't actually begun its unwinding, only mentioned how they plan to achieve their goals.

In an addendum to its statement, the Fed stated,
“The Committee currently anticipates reducing the quantity of supply of reserve balances, over time, to a level appreciably below that seen in recent years but larger than before the financial crisis; the level will reflect the banking system’s demand for reserve balances.”
As the ultimate arbiter of rates and ostensibly in control of all things financial, the Fed is hopeful that the rest of the world will go along with their grand plan.

According to the caps the Fed has just announced, it's going to be a long time before their balance sheet regains some semblance of normalcy. At a rate of $10 billion a month, the Fed will only be able to reduce the bloat by $120 billion a year. At that rate, getting their carried balance down to $2.5 billion would take roughly 20 years.

We can hardly wait.

At the Close, 6/14/17:
Dow: 21,374.56, +46.09 (0.22%)
NASDAQ: 6,194.89, -25.48 (-0.41%)
S&P 500: 2,437.92, -2.43 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 11,779.81, -16.98 (-0.14%)

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Many Signs Beginning to Appear That Signal the End of the Bull Run

These times, trying for some, are inscrutable for others.

While a small fraction of the population can see the changes in culture, society and technology clear as day, the majority only gets a grasp of the situation when the changes have taken hold and new trends already developed.

We are currently in a period of great change. Two years from today, one will not recognize America. Other countries will undergo massive upheavals. It is already underway.

Look around. The kinds of people - average, middle class folks - you used to see on a regular basis are gone, replaced by walking zombies on food stamps. Get used to it. The welfare-police state is upon us. Alternately, the people who have seen this coming are preparing to prosper. It will get worse before it improves, but, when the current power structure and domination of mega-corporations ultimately fails, small businesses, which have been under the thumb from competition from larger rivals and government regulations gone wild, will emerge, grow and prosper. It's just a matter of time.

As for today's roller-coaster on Wall Street, the movements were up, down, up, with the Dow closing at the mid-point of its 62-point high of the day and the -142-point lows, but still in the red. The S&P and NASDAQ finished with gains, though small.

Reporting prior to the opening bell, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported better-than-expected earnings, but finished the day lower on poor guidance. A similar scenario played out for insurance giant, Travelers (TRV), and cell carrier, Verizon (VZ).

Following the trading close, IBM reported an earnings beat (6.13 ex-items vs. 5.99 est.), but a huge miss on revenues. Analysts were looking for $28.25 billion and got only $27.70 billion.

Sadly, for Big Blue, they are trading at roughly an 11 P/E multiple. The company is a dinosaur and headed for extinction, though that reality is still a way off.

Another slow-footed beast, Texas Instruments (TXN) reported 0.46 per share on revenue of $3.03 billion. Both of these tech behemoths were trading lower in after-hours, with IBM down nearly three percent. Dead money. It's what's not for dinner.

Among the more obvious signs that change is permanent and the bull market in stocks is coming ever closer to a crashing climax:

  • Sears, JC Penny and Target.
  • Analyst on CNBC says stocks will fall 10%, then fumbles targets of 16,000 on the Dow and 1800 on the S&P. Basic math: FAIL.
  • Chris Christie
  • Hillary
  • Mohamed El-Erian steps down as Pimco CEO
  • Another former Pimco exec, Neel Kashkari announces he is running for governor of California.
  • Complaints that the Dow is down because some stocks are priced too high. (At least there's a solution for that.)

More are certain to follow.

DOW 16,414.44, -44.12 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ 4,225.76, +28.18 (+0.67%)
S&P 1,843.80, +5.10 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Note 99.30, +0.18 (+0.18%) Yield: 2.83%
NASDAQ Volume 1.91 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.75 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3649-2079
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 466-36
WTI crude oil: 94.99, +0.62
Gold: 1,241.80, -10.10
Silver: 19.87, -0.434
Corn: 425.00, +1.00