Over the course of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, I burned out.
I no longer had any interest in penning my "Weekend Wrap," as it has come to be known. The stock market was no longer of any interest to me. I didn't write my usual column, and, I didn't write my daily market commentary on Tuesday either.
It's not as if this was a sudden, knee-jerk reaction to anything. This has been brewing inside me for a long time. Obviously, I don't even care anymore to write in the third person, as has been the usual mode of this blog. It's just not important, just as money and markets aren't important, to me, at least.
Maybe money is important to you. Maybe the ups and downs of Wall Street matter to you, to your feelings of well being, to your existence. Money and markets are not existential prerogatives to me. Never have been. And now, they really don't matter at all.
I took an interest in stocks, bonds, money, and business when I was very young. At the age of six, I was intrigued by the small type in the newspaper displaying the gains and losses of big companies. To me, at such a tender age, the world of business and finance was a fantastic place populated by titans of industry, upstanding men of character and wisdom who employed their thinking and inventiveness to build fabulous engines of wealth. Such a fascination with money and business served me well along my path through adolescence and into adulthood. I conceived any number of business ideas, launched most, failed at many, until finally, by age 30, I found success in the newspaper business.
Perhaps the rude awakening to how business actually operated was where my burnout began and it just took a long time for me to realize it. I don't like the way business is conducted anymore. When I was in business - in the 80s, before the internet - an office, a phone, and a car were just about all one needed to get oneself on the path to riches. Almost all of the deals and ad sales I did were in person. A few were done by phone, but a follow-up personal visit was always required. I did business with people, in person. Try that today and you'll be laughed out of most places. It's an email, a text, a slick website and an electronic funds transfer. Done.
Wall Street, for all it's glamor and glory, is different now as well. A quarter point or half point gain - which used to be a big deal - is now 0.25 or 0.50, and it's nothing. Hedge funds, fake news, the Federal Reserve, and a host of unseen forces - algorithms, HFTs, ETFs, the PPT - have destroyed whatever was left of free markets and the "old Wall Street after the ravages of 9/11/2001. There's no Louis Rukeyser's "Wall Street Week" on Friday nights. Today it's CNBC, wall-to-wall, all the time, blaring the trumpets for the honorable necessity of owning stocks all day long, all night long.
It's boring, and most of the time, it's meaningless, or downright wrong. Stocks all move in tandem today. There's no science; only emotion, and mine is spent.
My personal short literary demise - which this is - may have more to do with anxiety over the fate of our nation than my dislike for the current rigors of finance. Everything is in chaos and there doesn't seem to be any end to it. Nor is there any sense to it, anymore. Tucker Carlson's tirade from a few weeks back encapsulates much of what I'm feeling, but, for me, there's more.
There has to be more than stocks. When I figure out what that is, I'll be back.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Thursday, January 17, 2019
Fake News Bumps Stocks Higher (No Kidding!)
A Wall Street Journal story that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed lifting some or all tariffs imposed on Chinese imports and suggested offering a tariff rollback - later dismissed as false - sent stocks soaring on outrageous volume at 2:37 pm ET.
Any questions?
At the Close, Thursday, January 17, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,370.10, +162.94 (+0.67%)
NASDAQ: 7,084.46, +49.77 (+0.71%)
S&P 500: 2,635.96, +19.86 (+0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,994.54, +86.93 (+0.73%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:
Any questions?
At the Close, Thursday, January 17, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,370.10, +162.94 (+0.67%)
NASDAQ: 7,084.46, +49.77 (+0.71%)
S&P 500: 2,635.96, +19.86 (+0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,994.54, +86.93 (+0.73%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 1/2/19 | 23,346.24 | +18.78 | +18.78 |
| 1/3/19 | 22,686.22 | -660.02 | -641.24 |
| 1/4/19 | 23,433.16 | +746.94 | +105.70 |
| 1/7/19 | 23,531.35 | +98.19 | +203.89 |
| 1/8/19 | 23,787.45 | +256.10 | +459.99 |
| 1/9/19 | 23,879.12 | +91.67 | +551.66 |
| 1/10/19 | 24,001.92 | +122.80 | +674.46 |
| 1/11/19 | 23,995.95 | -5.97 | +669.49 |
| 1/14/19 | 23,909.84 | -86.11 | +583.38 |
| 1/15/19 | 24,065.59 | +155.75 | +739.13 |
| 1/16/19 | 24,207.16 | +141.57 | +880.70 |
| 1/17/19 | 24,370.10 | +162.94 | +1043.64 |
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Bank Stocks Boost Market; Vanguard's John Bogle Dead At 89
On the backs of earnings from Bank of American (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), stocks took another step forward as January 2019 is beginning to look a lot like January 2018.
The Dow has already added 880 points in the new year, the NASDAQ, 400, the S&P 500, 110. Of the 11 trading sessions so far in 2019, the major indices have finished in positive territory in eight of them.
On the day, point gains were minimized in late selling, suggesting that the bank earnings were not out of the ordinary nor any indication that the economy was picking up speed, only that money needs to be parked somewhere, there's plenty of it sloshing around and BAC and GS had been beaten down recently.
In some sad news, John C. Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group and the inventor of the index fund, has died at age 89. Bogle was one of the great financial minds of our time and a very decent human being. His wisdom and wit will be missed.
Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:
At the Close, Wednesday, January 16, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,207.16, +141.57 (+0.59%)
NASDAQ: 7,034.69, +10.86 (+0.15%)
S&P 500: 2,616.10, +5.80 (+0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 11,907.61, +38.93 (+0.33%)
Joke of the Day: NY junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand announces Presidential bid. This woman barely qualifies as a Senator, elected to the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton, she was only viable as a shoe-in in one of the most liberal states in the country. Her list of accomplishments includes the shaming of Al Franken.
Gillibrand, in addition to praising voters last year that she would not run for president and would serve out her full term in the senate if re-elected (probably true, that), has often changed her views. When she was a member the House of Representatives in 2008, she received an "A" rating from the NRA for her positions on gun control. In 2018, the NRA gave her an "F."
The Dow has already added 880 points in the new year, the NASDAQ, 400, the S&P 500, 110. Of the 11 trading sessions so far in 2019, the major indices have finished in positive territory in eight of them.
On the day, point gains were minimized in late selling, suggesting that the bank earnings were not out of the ordinary nor any indication that the economy was picking up speed, only that money needs to be parked somewhere, there's plenty of it sloshing around and BAC and GS had been beaten down recently.
In some sad news, John C. Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group and the inventor of the index fund, has died at age 89. Bogle was one of the great financial minds of our time and a very decent human being. His wisdom and wit will be missed.
Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 1/2/19 | 23,346.24 | +18.78 | +18.78 |
| 1/3/19 | 22,686.22 | -660.02 | -641.24 |
| 1/4/19 | 23,433.16 | +746.94 | +105.70 |
| 1/7/19 | 23,531.35 | +98.19 | +203.89 |
| 1/8/19 | 23,787.45 | +256.10 | +459.99 |
| 1/9/19 | 23,879.12 | +91.67 | +551.66 |
| 1/10/19 | 24,001.92 | +122.80 | +674.46 |
| 1/11/19 | 23,995.95 | -5.97 | +669.49 |
| 1/14/19 | 23,909.84 | -86.11 | +583.38 |
| 1/15/19 | 24,065.59 | +155.75 | +739.13 |
| 1/16/19 | 24,207.16 | +141.57 | +880.70 |
At the Close, Wednesday, January 16, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,207.16, +141.57 (+0.59%)
NASDAQ: 7,034.69, +10.86 (+0.15%)
S&P 500: 2,616.10, +5.80 (+0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 11,907.61, +38.93 (+0.33%)
Joke of the Day: NY junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand announces Presidential bid. This woman barely qualifies as a Senator, elected to the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton, she was only viable as a shoe-in in one of the most liberal states in the country. Her list of accomplishments includes the shaming of Al Franken.
Gillibrand, in addition to praising voters last year that she would not run for president and would serve out her full term in the senate if re-elected (probably true, that), has often changed her views. When she was a member the House of Representatives in 2008, she received an "A" rating from the NRA for her positions on gun control. In 2018, the NRA gave her an "F."
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Stocks Rise Despite Spate Of Bad News, Brexit No-Go Vote
Some are wondering whether the market is being run by computers or human operatives, or, worse yet, humans running computers front-running the market.
What may be happening is that humans are programming computer algorithms to react to fake news and the PPT is backstopping each and every tick lower by buying futures, resulting in the altos readjusting to buy more.
There was a good deal of bad news flow in the morning... and then just after 7:00 pm London time (2:00 pm ET), there was the Brexit vote.
Here's what passed across the wires prior to the opening bell and shortly thereafter:
With all this in the cooker, stocks opened higher and took off from there. The Dow exploded to a gain of 190 points just before noon. The NASDAQ was up nearly 120 points.
After noon, the markets went into a wait-and-see mood as the Brexit vote approached. In what has to be the most convoluted, time-wasting exercise in government over-reach (possibly challenged by the partial shutdown in the US), Britain has been wrangling over just how to depart from the European Union after a referendum passed nearly two-and-a-half years ago (June 23, 2016).
With different constituents vying for complete Brexit, partial Brexit with a backstop, no Brexit, and other variants, the argument over how to implement what was voted upon by the constituency has been nothing short of a disaster and an indictment against the effectiveness of government everywhere.
Somebody should point out - we will - that with all the Brexit juggling, partial US shutdown jousting, and continuing French protesting, governments in developed nations are proving to be at least cracked, if not nearly completely broken. Besides the fact that none of them can manage to spend less than what they receive through their extreme, excessive, heavy-handed taxation - which is over the top - it seems all they're capable of doing at the highest levels is fight for positioning and power, all to the detriment of the people they're supposed to be representing. Collectively, they pass no new legislation that is of benefit to the people. Other than President Trump's efforts, government is a massive, obvious failure of human capacity.
If ever there was a time for a global revolution (not a new concept), it would be now, though nobody has any contingency plans for how to deal with the dystopian aftermath that would surely follow.
Experience teaches us that disposing of scoundrels, deposing tyrants, or overthrowing governments only makes matters seem better for a short period of time. At least in the original American revolution, the patriots were separated from their tyrannical rulers by a vast ocean which technology hadn't quite conquered.
Today's intertwined system is different, close at hand, and the scoundrels much better disguised. There isn't going to be any overthrow of anything except morals and values, people's faith and judgment, which seem to be going in the direction of all flesh. Anger, the most palpable manifestation of displeasure, is boiling over in all facets of urban life. People are becoming more and more ill-mannered, short-tempered, self-absorbed, and intolerant toward the views and objectives of others. All of this adds up to uncivil activities, flouting of the law, violence and strife. Essentially, when ordinary people lose faith in a government that they had become accustomed to relying upon, all that's left is chaos, and that seems to be the direction in which we're inexorably, sadly, headed.
... and then came the Brexit vote in Britain's Parliament. Prime Minister Teresa May's government proposal was rounded defeated by a 432-202 vote in the House of Commons. On the news, the Dow tanked... briefly, the other indices slumped shortly, and then shot back to from whence they came.
It's all fake, people. There are no more free markets. Face it. All the geese been thoroughly cooked.
What may be happening is that humans are programming computer algorithms to react to fake news and the PPT is backstopping each and every tick lower by buying futures, resulting in the altos readjusting to buy more.
There was a good deal of bad news flow in the morning... and then just after 7:00 pm London time (2:00 pm ET), there was the Brexit vote.
Here's what passed across the wires prior to the opening bell and shortly thereafter:
- Both Wells Fargo (WFC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) missed on both earnings per share and revenue.
- Netflix (NFLX) announced the largest price increase in its 12-year history.
- China's economy grew by 6.4%, the slowest rate in over a decade.
- PPI cane in at -0.2%, a deflationary reading.
- Delta Airlines (DAL) beat, but warned that the partial government shutdown would negatively impact earnings in the current quarter.
- The Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to a reading of 3.9 in January from an upwardly revised reading of 11.5 in December.
- Goodyear Tire (GT) lowered its fourth quarter outlook and full year (2018) guidance.
With all this in the cooker, stocks opened higher and took off from there. The Dow exploded to a gain of 190 points just before noon. The NASDAQ was up nearly 120 points.
After noon, the markets went into a wait-and-see mood as the Brexit vote approached. In what has to be the most convoluted, time-wasting exercise in government over-reach (possibly challenged by the partial shutdown in the US), Britain has been wrangling over just how to depart from the European Union after a referendum passed nearly two-and-a-half years ago (June 23, 2016).
With different constituents vying for complete Brexit, partial Brexit with a backstop, no Brexit, and other variants, the argument over how to implement what was voted upon by the constituency has been nothing short of a disaster and an indictment against the effectiveness of government everywhere.
Somebody should point out - we will - that with all the Brexit juggling, partial US shutdown jousting, and continuing French protesting, governments in developed nations are proving to be at least cracked, if not nearly completely broken. Besides the fact that none of them can manage to spend less than what they receive through their extreme, excessive, heavy-handed taxation - which is over the top - it seems all they're capable of doing at the highest levels is fight for positioning and power, all to the detriment of the people they're supposed to be representing. Collectively, they pass no new legislation that is of benefit to the people. Other than President Trump's efforts, government is a massive, obvious failure of human capacity.
If ever there was a time for a global revolution (not a new concept), it would be now, though nobody has any contingency plans for how to deal with the dystopian aftermath that would surely follow.
Experience teaches us that disposing of scoundrels, deposing tyrants, or overthrowing governments only makes matters seem better for a short period of time. At least in the original American revolution, the patriots were separated from their tyrannical rulers by a vast ocean which technology hadn't quite conquered.
Today's intertwined system is different, close at hand, and the scoundrels much better disguised. There isn't going to be any overthrow of anything except morals and values, people's faith and judgment, which seem to be going in the direction of all flesh. Anger, the most palpable manifestation of displeasure, is boiling over in all facets of urban life. People are becoming more and more ill-mannered, short-tempered, self-absorbed, and intolerant toward the views and objectives of others. All of this adds up to uncivil activities, flouting of the law, violence and strife. Essentially, when ordinary people lose faith in a government that they had become accustomed to relying upon, all that's left is chaos, and that seems to be the direction in which we're inexorably, sadly, headed.
... and then came the Brexit vote in Britain's Parliament. Prime Minister Teresa May's government proposal was rounded defeated by a 432-202 vote in the House of Commons. On the news, the Dow tanked... briefly, the other indices slumped shortly, and then shot back to from whence they came.
It's all fake, people. There are no more free markets. Face it. All the geese been thoroughly cooked.
Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 1/2/19 | 23,346.24 | +18.78 | +18.78 |
| 1/3/19 | 22,686.22 | -660.02 | -641.24 |
| 1/4/19 | 23,433.16 | +746.94 | +105.70 |
| 1/7/19 | 23,531.35 | +98.19 | +203.89 |
| 1/8/19 | 23,787.45 | +256.10 | +459.99 |
| 1/9/19 | 23,879.12 | +91.67 | +551.66 |
| 1/10/19 | 24,001.92 | +122.80 | +674.46 |
| 1/11/19 | 23,995.95 | -5.97 | +669.49 |
| 1/14/19 | 23,909.84 | -86.11 | +583.38 |
| 1/15/19 | 24,065.59 | +155.75 | +739.13 |
At the Close, Tuesday, January 15, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,065.59, +155.75 (+0.65%)
NASDAQ: 7,023.83, +117.92 (+1.71%)
S&P 500: 2,610.30, +27.69 (+1.07%)
NYSE Composite: 11,868.68, +69.57 (+0.59%)
Monday, January 14, 2019
Dull Monday
Stocks took a negative turn on Monday, with no rationale for the move other than general sentiment. Citigroup (C) missed on revenue when they announced fourth quarter earnings prior to the opening bell.
More bank stocks will be reporting as the week progresses, so this small downdraft may be just the start of something larger. The major indices seem to be nearly out of steam from the recent rally. Expectations for earnings season have been muted, and some earnings and revenue misses are to be expected, and, if that's the case, nothing kills rallies better than earnings misses.
Stay tuned.
Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:
At the Close, Monday, January 14, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 23,909.84, -86.11 (-0.36%)
NASDAQ: 6,905.92, -65.56 (-0.94%)
S&P 500: 2,582.61, -13.65 (-0.53%)
NYSE Composite: 11,799.11, -48.90 (-0.41%)
More bank stocks will be reporting as the week progresses, so this small downdraft may be just the start of something larger. The major indices seem to be nearly out of steam from the recent rally. Expectations for earnings season have been muted, and some earnings and revenue misses are to be expected, and, if that's the case, nothing kills rallies better than earnings misses.
Stay tuned.
Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 1/2/19 | 23,346.24 | +18.78 | +18.78 |
| 1/3/19 | 22,686.22 | -660.02 | -641.24 |
| 1/4/19 | 23,433.16 | +746.94 | +105.70 |
| 1/7/19 | 23,531.35 | +98.19 | +203.89 |
| 1/8/19 | 23,787.45 | +256.10 | +459.99 |
| 1/9/19 | 23,879.12 | +91.67 | +551.66 |
| 1/10/19 | 24,001.92 | +122.80 | +674.46 |
| 1/11/19 | 23,995.95 | -5.97 | +669.49 |
| 1/14/19 | 23,909.84 | -86.11 | +583.38 |
At the Close, Monday, January 14, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 23,909.84, -86.11 (-0.36%)
NASDAQ: 6,905.92, -65.56 (-0.94%)
S&P 500: 2,582.61, -13.65 (-0.53%)
NYSE Composite: 11,799.11, -48.90 (-0.41%)
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