Stocks Rip Higher, Unemployment Claims Down Due to Labor Dept. Adjustment (?), Sturgis Biker Death Reported

Stocks were up sharply on Wednesday, September 2nd, with all major indices putting in impressive gains. Led by the Dow Industrials, which cracked the 29,000 mark for the first time since February 20, the trading was genuinely positive all day but really ramped up in the final two hours.

The big move in the Industrial Average was aided by the recent inclusion of Amgen Inc. (258.12, +7.26 +2.89%) and Honeywell (172.47, +4.50 +2.68%) but disappointed by salesforce.com (276.69, -4.56 -1.62%), which replaced ExxonMobile, Raytheon, and Pfizer.

Wednesday's move left the Dow just 450 points from its all-time closing high (21,551.42, Feb. 10, 2020), a number that is almost certainly to be shattered within weeks, if not days.






Moving ahead to Thursday's pre-market, initial jobless claims were 833,352 on an unadjusted basis, and 881,000, seasonally adjusted.

As if the unemployment figures produced by the Department of Labor weren't suspect enough, a change in how seasonally-adjusted claims are reported began with today's report.

According to Yahoo News, "Thursday’s report, however, will also mark the first time the US Department of Labor (DOL) counts new and continuing jobless claims under an updated system, with this change expected to lower the number of seasonally adjusted claims that get reported."

According to another "trusted" source, USA Today claims, "The new method involves using a seasonal adjustment that’s more stable because it applies a number rather than a percentage to the actual claims total, J.P. Morgan economist Daniel Silver wrote in a note to clients."

Now, since the seasonally-adjusted number is higher (881,000) than the non-adjusted figure (833,352), what can we make of this? Hard to tell, since the opposite of what was expected to happen (lower seasonally-adjusted number) via the change in calculation, occurred.

Well, suffice it to say that the government lies, mostly all the time.






This report would not be complete without a little taste of fake news - today's entry into the panoply of bogusness from the pre-eminent anti-truth newspaper, the Washington Post.

Their story, published on September 2, purports to detail the horrible after-effects from the evil biker rally in Sturgis, South Dakota back in the second week of August, claiming to report the First covid-19 death linked to Sturgis Motorcycle Rally.

The article - with some degree of giddiness - states:

The man was in his 60s, had underlying conditions and was hospitalized in intensive care for several weeks after returning from the rally, said Kris Ehresmann, infectious-disease director at the Minnesota Department of Health. The case is among at least 260 cases in 11 states tied directly to the event, according to a survey of health departments by The Washington Post.

First, note that the man had underlying conditions, but the article - likewise the hundreds of other articles covering the same story - fails to mention what those conditions were. Cancer? Obesity? Acne? Anybody?

While the article very plainly states that the man attended the rally in Sturgis, it fails to mention where he went before and after the rally. The coronavirus, we've been told, can have a quite long incubation period, so where the Post tries to link the man's death to the rally, it doesn't mention whether he was a regular church-goer, mall shopper, or attended any other rallies, festivals, parties, or gatherings where he could have picked up the infection. For all we know, he could have contracted the COVID from a relative or somebody he had lunch with near his home. Dead horse. Stop beating it.

Let's take a look at some numbers, OK?

The annual US Death rate is 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population. That amounts to 16.61 deaths per 100,000 per week.

Considering that the Sturgis biker festival supposedly drew about 400,000, it would be statistically insignificant if 64 of the people who attended the rally died each week following the event. Many of these bikers are in the riskiest categories, over 50, surely many with one or more comorbidity, so if 100 or more of these bikers died since August 16, it would not be surprising.

But, here we have one. ONE. Just one guy and it makes news. Now, if bikers were dropping like flies sprayed with Black Flag, then there would be a story. One guy, who was old and already sick, dying, does not a news story make. What it does is promote the COVID propaganda narrative which tells us to wear masks, stay away from each other (no hugging, kissing, or, for the sake of the children, none of that intimacy stuff), be afraid, make sure to be first in line for an untested, possibly fatal, vaccine which will be rolled out in a couple of months, and stop living as normal human beings.

The fellow who passed away may have had a terminal illness for all we know and was going to the biker rally for one last good time before cashing in his chips. We don't know and rest assured the crack reporters who covered this story are unlikely to follow up with any relevant details, so, we'll probably never know the truth.

The truth. It hurts. It's also, according to the "father of tragedy," Aeschylus, the first casualty of war, and we are at war. With the government, the media, the medical and financial communities.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 2, 2020:
Dow: 29,100.50, +454.84 (+1.59%)
NASDAQ: 12,056.44, +116.78 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 3,580.84, +54.19 (+1.54%)
NYSE: 13,276.74, +163.00 (+1.24%)

Rise of Gold and Silver Signaling the End of Fiat Currencies, Bad Government, Fake News

Lately, Money Daily has been intriguing readers with mentions of signal to noise ratio as a fitting analogy to stocks, currencies, and societies.

While there's no hard numbers to verify the contention that most of what's been happening on the stock markets and in the general news has been noise, there are actually a number of good reasons to believe that most of what's presented for public consumption is more hype than reality, thus, noise has triumphed over signal since the beginning of the pandemic at least, and probably even further back in time than that.

Paramount to the noise argument is the recent rally in stocks. While the world was gripped with fear and uncertainty over the coronavirus, the stock market sank and then quickly rebounded, erasing most of the losses incurred during the rapid decline of February and March. The level of indifference to reality was nowhere more pronounced than on the NASDAQ, which not only rebounded, but launched itself to all-time highs, all of it happening while many US states and countries were shuttered, flummoxed over the pandemic and at less than full operational capacity. The NASDAQ is one of a few prime examples of the noisy nature of our times.

In terms of currencies, nothing hits home as hard as the Fed's balance sheet, which has exploded from under four trill to over seven in a matter of months. Intent on smashing the business cycle, something they've managed to somewhat handle over the past decade, as a response to deteriorating financial conditions, the Federal Reserve embarked upon a path of insane resistance to reality, buying up all manner of assets, from high-grade bonds to junk to munis and ETFs, with assistance from the Treasury and its Exchange Stabilization Fund.

Most of the programs the Fed has been and is currently entertaining are nothing more than stop-gap measures, highlighted by currency creation out of thin air to an extreme level of irresponsibility. The Fed has managed to pervert and distort the global economy to a point at which it - thanks to the Cantillon Effect - continually rewards those at the top of the economic heap while adding distress to the lower rungs of society, exacerbating the wealth gap to a point that not only rivals that of the Robber Baron era of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, but has greatly exceeded it.

The Fed's machinations, near-zero interest rates, meandering mouthings on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (which is complete and utter trash in a classical economic sense), and continuing interventions into the formerly-free markets is about as noisy as it can get without fully drowning out the signal of reality, which, of course, is the intent. They, like all central banks in the global fiat era, push the falsity of paper money without intrinsic backing or value.

All major and minor currencies are based on nothing but faith in central bank authority. That condition - which has never before existed in the history of the world - eventually leads to ruination and it is proceeding apace.

On top of it all are the fakery of a pandemic which kills older, obese people with existing medical conditions to a degree that 95% of all deaths attributed to the disease are of this order, various ill-informed government responses, lockdowns, riots, looting, calls for social change, and scare-mongering led by a pompous media devoid of journalistic integrity. All of the media coddling, jawboning, and incessant warning is fake, completely and unequivocally. Nothing about the rising number of positive cases or the potential for serious complications from the virus affecting any more than a small consort of the general population is mind-numbingly true.

All of it is fake, false, a purposeful lie perpetuated by the mainstream media to put the entire planet under a trance and replace good government with tyranny and false dictates. It's a scam and it's nothing but noise, lots and lots of noise, significant of nothing meaningful.

At last, like the calvary charging into battle to save the day as in old Western movies, come gold and silver, real money for the past 5000 years. Despite decades of bad-mouthing, manipulation, and degradation by central bankers and financial media, the twin pillars of economic freedom are rising to the rescue of civilization, though for many, the time is too late.

Because gold and silver have been so universally shunned and banished to "ancient relic" status by the Keynesians of the day, most middle and lower class citizens will not be saved. Some reckon that 95% of the world's population has little to no gold or silver. Even though gold, in particular, has been kept on the balance sheets of central banks as a tier-one asset for time immemorial, these same central banks and their cohorts have repeatedly lied and cajoled the minions into believing that it is inconsequential.

Were that true, why then has gold risen dramatically over the past year, reaching all-time highs against all currencies and approaching an all-time high against the world's reserve currency, the dollar? It is because gold is money. Silver is money. All else is currency or derivatives of paper currencies.

Gold and silver are the real signal that will drown out the noise of phony markets, counterfeit currencies, bad governance, social division, and media overreach. They are saying that now is the time for change. That now is the time to end the madness and the lies and the corruption that is enslaving the people of the world.

There is little doubt that gold will exceed $1900 an ounce this year. It just broke through the $1800 barrier on Wednesday and there is nothing to stop its progress. In fact, central bank pandering and counterfeiting is fueling its growth. Silver, as usual, is tagging along, but will eventually become its own pillar of strength for the middle classes as it is more affordable and more easily transferrable than gold.

Gold and silver are sending a clear signal. Get out of fiat currencies and take up the mantle of real money. Anybody who does not heed this call will suffer consequences befitting of fools.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 8, 2020:
Dow: 26,067.28, +177.10 (+0.68%)
NASDAQ: 10,492.50, +148.61 (+1.44%)
S&P 500: 3,169.94, +24.62 (+0.78%)
NYSE: 12,086.39, +96.26 (+0.80%)

Stocks Remain in Yo-Yo Mode; Bonds Not Being Bid; BofA Takes Charge

Apathetic marketeers managed to bid stocks higher as third quarter earnings season progresses apace. That's a good start, but the yo-yo is in effect, and, no, that's not Sylvester Stallone stuttering. Stocks are generally fluctuating, and have been for the better part of two years, with no discernible direction.

For today's exercise in "what is fake news?" plenty will be said about Bank of America's (BAC) third quarter results, in which earnings per share beat analyst estimates. The bank returned 56 cents per share in the quarter, on expectations of 56 cents.

However (here's the fake news part), earnings were down from the same quarter a year ago, when the bank earned 66 cents per share. The culprit, according to the Wall Street Journal was a one time, $2.1 billion charge related to the coming dissolution of the bank’s payment-processing partnership with First Data Corp.

Well, isn't that special. Note the divergent headlines:

Yahoo! Finance: Bank of America beats profit estimates on stock trading, lending gains

Wall Street Journal: Bank of America Third-Quarter Profit Fell on Charge

Which one should you trust? (Hint: the one without the exclamation point in its name.)

Meanwhile, while everybody was busy reading their 401k statements, the 10-year note has rocketed from a yield of 1.52% on October 4, to 1.77% yesterday. That's quite the move (25 basis points, 1/4 percent), and, further, it un-inverted the yield curve, suggesting that what, exactly? There's not going to be a recession, or, if there's a recession, it will be short-lived and shallow, or, everybody is just front-running the Fed, buying the shorter maturities, or, the market is very confused.

Likely, it's a little bit of everything, but worth commenting upon and watching closely for the next move.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 15, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,024.80, +237.44 (+0.89%)
NASDAQ: 8,148.71, +100.06 (+1.24%)
S&P 500: 2,995.68, +29.53 (+1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 13,006.04, +109.82 (+0.85)

Fake News Bumps Stocks Higher (No Kidding!)

A Wall Street Journal story that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed lifting some or all tariffs imposed on Chinese imports and suggested offering a tariff rollback - later dismissed as false - sent stocks soaring on outrageous volume at 2:37 pm ET.

Any questions?



At the Close, Thursday, January 17, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,370.10, +162.94 (+0.67%)
NASDAQ: 7,084.46, +49.77 (+0.71%)
S&P 500: 2,635.96, +19.86 (+0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,994.54, +86.93 (+0.73%)

Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
1/2/19	23,346.24	+18.78	+18.78
1/3/19	22,686.22	-660.02	-641.24
1/4/19	23,433.16	+746.94	+105.70
1/7/19	23,531.35	+98.19	+203.89
1/8/19	23,787.45	+256.10	+459.99
1/9/19	23,879.12	+91.67	+551.66
1/10/19	24,001.92	+122.80	+674.46
1/11/19	23,995.95	-5.97	+669.49
1/14/19	23,909.84	-86.11	+583.38
1/15/19	24,065.59	+155.75	+739.13
1/16/19	24,207.16	+141.57	+880.70
1/17/19	24,370.10	+162.94	+1043.64

Wall Street Tumbles Most This Year; Treasuries, Gold Rally

Sure enough, being the contrary indicator for which Money Daily has become legendary, as soon as this blog issued the "all clear," circa the past two days - citing that the Fed has Wall Street's back - then the bottom falls completely out of the market.

While today's massive declines could be nothing more than a case of jitters over the Washington establishment's fixation on making President Trump's life a living hell, or, a simple matter of profit taking, there's some indication that both may be partially true.

As usual, with everything related to stocks and finance since roughly the year 2000, there's insufficient information upon which to make a decisive call. One day's worth of declines by no means indicates anything fundamentally wrong, and it's likely that this current bout of market indigestion will blow over with the next data release.

Moreover, given that the mainstream media is chock full of creeps, fabricators and liars, it wouldn't be beyond the pale for financial media to be right in the middle of the "fake news" mix. To the point, the headline on Yahoo Finance at today's market close screams, "Stocks tumble as Trump worries Wall Street," as if it's the President himself causing consternation among international financiers, when in fact, it is the news media itself promulgating questionable narratives surrounding the President and his administration.

Thus, there may be something more compelling afoot. Perhaps some of the more recent data releases haven't been particularly rosy, or maybe somebody deep inside the global financial establishment knows something of which the general public isn't keenly aware. That insiders would know more than the public is undeniably true; whether or not there's something big about to occur - and this was just cover for a deeper dive - is a matter of great conjecture.

On the surface, that doesn't seem to be the case. Tuesday's releases showed that capacity utilization and industrial production both beat expectations, but housing starts and building permits missed the mark. Wednesday's release of crude inventories (a drawdown) and mortgage applications (off by 4.1%) shouldn't have catalyzed the market into this kind of paroxysm.

What we do know is that the dollar index (97.456) fell again today (fifth straight decline) and has been below 100 for a full month. That's sent gold soaring (up nearly two percent today), with silver tagging along, though without as much gusto (+0.73%, 16.87/oz.). A falling dollar should be good for US companies, though that correlation hasn't always held true, because US imports in other countries' currencies would cost less.

We also know that today's losses were the worst of the year for the major indices and Treasuries were rallying, with the 10-year yield falling to 2.22% and the two-year moving down to 1.24%.

Thus, the crystal ball remains cloudy. Thursday's market action may be more telling. It's never too late to take a profit, nor is it ever too early to cut losses. Maybe Wall Street has come to its senses.

At the Close, 5/17/17:
Dow: 20,606.93, -372.82 (-1.78%)
NASDAQ: 6,011.24, -158.63 (-2.57%)
S&P 500: 2,357.03, -43.64 (-1.82%)
NYSE Composite: 11,423.54, -182.95 (-1.58%)