WEEKEND WRAP: Wait Until Monday; Silver, Gold, Bitcoin Marked Down on Final Session of January; Stocks Drop; Iran Still Quiet; Oil Spikes Higher

For the record, no amount of bitcoin is going to "fix this."

The last trading day of the month, Friday, January 30, was a bummer for just about everybody, except those invested in oil or natural gas. Everything got sent lower, but especially gold, silver, and bitcoin, the alternatives to fiat currencies that are supposed to save the backsides of all of humankind in the event of a black swan event, systemic collapse of the global economy, or the outbreak of a military conflict between the great powers.

Nothing like that happened, but still, everything, all of a sudden, went down the drain. Somewhat.

Silver, the single asset that had risen the most over the past month, six months, year, etc., dropped by an ungodly amount, from a high of around $121/ounce intraday to close, on the spot market, at $84.63. While the sudden drop alarmed some newbies, seasoned veterans of COMEX/LBMA paper price slams noted that the price was back to where it was on January 13, just a little more than three weeks ago. Silver's one day loss of $30.32 (-26.26%) came on the heels of a tripling in price in 2025, and a meteoric rise from $71.64 at the end of December. At its peak closing price of $118.45, silver was up 65% just in the month of January.

Gold, while it the one day decline of some $489 on January 30 was remarkable, it closed at $4,889.40 on the spot market, about where it was trading on January 22nd, a week and a day prior.

There was little in the way of panic other than the aforementioned newbies and people in paper trades like GLD or SLV. Most experts in the precious metals had been calling for a correction for most of the past two weeks. They got it, albeit in very abrupt fashion and in a larger manner than expected.

Stocks swooned to finish the month and left the Dow, NASDAQ and NYSE Composite with losses on the week, the S&P and Dow Transports up, though both the gains and losses were hardly noticeable, leaving the January Barometer still slightly above break even.

That barometer, which is accurate about 75% of the time, says that a positive January leads to full-year gains. It's not very useful as any kind of gauge since stocks, like the S&P 500 have finished lower for the year only seven times since 1983. So, since the S&P ended the year higher 35 out of the past 42 years - a win rate of 83% - what happens in January isn't statistically important anyway.

Here are where major investments ended January and year-to-date:

Dow: +1.73%
NASDAQ: +0.95%
S&P 500: +1,37%
NYSE Composite: +3.25%
Dow Transports: +5.43%
Gold: +9.31
Silver: +11.23
WTI Crude Oil: +14.49%
Bitcoin: -11.36%

Those numbers offer better perspective. Other than bitcoin, everything was up for the month and so far, 2026, looks pretty good. As for magic crypto money, it isn't too early to beat that particular horse. It's not dead yet, but it sure looks - borrowing from the Rolling Stones description of Mick Jagger's friend, Mr. Jimmy, in the classic, "You Can't Always Get What You Want" - pretty ill (more on this analogy below).

As far as losing money for real and on paper on and off official accounts, precious metals fans are all saying, "wait until Monday," when foreign markets open and trading resumes in Singapore, Shanghai, and other financial centers. Actually, 6:00 pm ET Sunday is when Asian markets open, so, the nervous Nellies don't have long to wait to see how things shake out.

Stocks

General stock performance in terms of the major averages in January was slightly less than hoped for, though one can hardly be disappointed in the longer term results. After all, the S&P 500 has returned 26%, 25%, and 18% the past three years. That's a cumulative gain of 85%, or, a nearly doubling of your money in three years, and that's not counting dividends.

On closer inspection, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P have all had three consecutive weekly losses to close out January, and while the S&P did close at an all time high on Tuesday, 1/27 (6978.60) and made an intraday high on Thursday (7002.28)

The U.S. calendar is loaded with economic data releases in the week beginning February 2. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Manufacturing Prices come out on Monday. JOLTS job openings are announced on Tuesday. ADP private payrolls plus S&P Global Services and Composite PMI are all slated for Wednesday morning. Initial jobless claims, as usual, come Thursday, and Firday's January Nonfarm Payrolls, expected to be 45-65,000, close out the week.

The week ahead is overflowing with earnings reports. Here are some of the more widely-held and notable:

Monday: (before open) Walt Disney (DIS), Hess Midstream (HESM), Napco (NSSC), Tyson (TSN); (after close) Rambus (RMBS), Palantir (PLTR), Teradyne (TER)

Tuesday: (before open) Fubo (FUBO), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), Pepsico (PEP), PayPal (PYPL); (after close) Amgen (AMGN), Chubb (CB), AMD (AMD), Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG), SuperMicro (SMCI)

Wednesday: (before open) Johnson Controls (JCI), Novo Nordisk ((NVO), Lilly (LLY), Uber (UBER), Abbvie (ABBV), Boston Scientific (BSX), CME Group (CME); (after close) Alphabet (GOOG), Qualcomm (QCOM), O'Reilly Auto Parts (ORLY), Snap (SNAP), Crown Castle (CCI)

Thursday: (before open) Shell (SHEL), Estee Lauder (EL), Barrick (B), ConocoPhillips (COP), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Cummings ((CMI); (after close) Reddit (RDDT), Amazon (AMZN), Strategy (MSTR), Roblox (RBLX)

Friday: (before open) Roivant Sciences (ROIV), Biogen (BIIB), CBOE (CBOE), AutoNation (AN), Under Armour (UAA)

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
12/26/2025	3.70	3.69	3.72	3.64	3.66	3.58	3.49
01/02/2026	3.72	3.71	3.66	3.65	3.62	3.58	3.47
01/09/2026	3.70	3.68	3.63	3.62	3.62	3.57	3.52
01/16/2026	3.75	3.72	3.68	3.67	3.66	3.60	3.55
01/23/2026	3.78	3.71	3.72	3.70	3.67	3.61	3.53
01/30/2026	3.72	3.73	3.75	3.67	3.69	3.61	3.48

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
12/26/2025	3.46	3.54	3.68	3.89	4.14	4.76	4.81
01/02/2026	3.47	3.55	3.74	3.95	4.19	4.81	4.86
01/09/2026	3.54	3.59	3.75	3.95	4.18	4.76	4.82
01/16/2026	3.59	3.67	3.82	4.02	4.24	4.79	4.83
01/23/2026	3.60	3.67	3.84	4.03	4.24	4.78	4.82
01/30/2026	3.52	3.60	3.79	4.01	4.26	4.82	4.87

With the FOMC standing pat on the federal funds target rate at 3.50-3.75%, one month bills drifted lower, from 3.77 to 3.72, Thursday and Friday. Thus far, the Federal reserv's attempts at Yield Curve Control, focused on the 10-year note benchmark, has kept fixed income markets from signaling anything but complacency. However, stresses are evident from the elevated level of the 30 year yield (4.87%), and widening spreads.

While yield on the 10-year note rose a mere two basis points, to 4.26, it does continue creeping higher. The two-year yield of 3.52% - eight basis points below last Friday - widened the already massive spread on 2s-10s to +74, while full spectrum (30-days to 30-years) also expanded, to 115 basis points. Both are at or near the highest levels in two years, which is overall healthy.

What Fed officials are likely more concerned about is the structure of bond buyers. Foreigners are increasingly not increasing their purchases, opting for the latest reserve currency, gold, instead. The Fed faces the under-appreciated problem of too much debt issuance by the federal government against a declining, skeptical buying community, and that may be the point of the current administration: to untether the U.S. from reserve currency status and allow free markets to determine credit-worthiness.

Considering that the U.S. dollar has fallen from 107.44 the day before Trump's inauguration to a low of 96.22 (January 27, 2026) before Friday's abrupt jump to 97.15, that appears to be one campaign promise the upon which the president has delivered. The lower dollar makes exports more marketable, though it has the opposite effect on imports, a matter to which most U.S. consumers can readily understand. Simple math says that as the cost of living increases, the standard of living declines. Truth, and an indication of the intent of tariff policies.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $65.74, up sharply from last week's close of $61.28 and the second consecutive week closing out above $60 and the highest price for oil since late September. Wile there remains an oil glut, geopolitical tensions and the practice of oil tanker seizures have lowered confidence and increased risk, taking price higher. Unless the Trump administration dials back some of the bellicose rhetoric and all of the kinetic activity around Venezuela, Greenland, and especially Iran, the price of oil is going to continue to rise, putting an end to the low-price vacation that's been had by U.S. and European drivers who fill up regularly.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump remained at $2.87 for a second straight week. Frigid conditions across most of the country and rising Mideast tensions contributed to the near term price gains.

California ramped up another dime this week, at $4.31 per gallon, the highest in the nation. Washington ($3.89) was a seven cents higher, but still leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.38), was up six cents. Arizona held steady at $2.96, remaining under $3.00 for the third straight week. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma, the low-price leader, down a nickel to $2.34, followed by Louisiana ($2.36), and Mississippi at $2.38, Arkansas at $2.40, and Texas ($2.43). The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina west to New Mexico, are all below $2.69, except Florida ($2.91).

In the Northeast, prices were steady and consistently low. Only Pennsylvania ($3.08) was above $3.00. New York gained a bit, to $2.97, along with Vermont ($2.98).

In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois regained the high ground, at $2.90, with Michigan close behind at $2.89. Kansas was the lowest ($2.43), followed by North Dakota ($2.45) and Minnesota ($2.50).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 43 of the lower 48 states, same as last week, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above.

Bitcoin

This week: $77,242.74
Last week: $88,556.82
2 weeks ago: $95,065.81
6 months ago: $113,941.10
One year ago: $99,655.54
Five years ago: $39,255.36

More and more, bitcoin appears to be dead money and this week's decline sets in motion further drops into a previously-dangerous zone below $74,000. All the "hodler" types have effectively moved into the next-door-neighbor's basement, unable to support their crypto lifestyle. Since crypto as a whole is the greatest scam since the 17t-century tulip mania, or maybe Charles Ponzi's Florida Real Estate debacle, it figures that the granddaddy of the crypto community (now a whopping 17 years along), might take some of the biggest lumps first. While bitcoin gets battered like a farmhand wife, others, like Ethereum, Dogecoin, Solana, and Cardano have taken their fair share of abuse (another Rolling Stones reference).

Year-to-date, here's the performance of bitcoin and others:
Bitcoin: -11.36%
Ether: -22.33%
Dogecoin: -12.08%
Cardano: -13.23%
Solana: -18.93%

What fun!

Taking the moral from the Rolling Stones analogy, coiners may take comfort in, "You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get what you need." If it's out of the system currency you desire, there's still gold, silver, and moving to South America available. Best of luck.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 57.74; last week: 48.46

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/2: $4,341,90
Gold price 1/9: $4,518.40
Gold price 1/16: $4,601.10
Gold price 1/23: $4,983.10
Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50

Silver price 1/2: $72.26
Silver price 1/9: $79.79
Silver price 1/16: $89.94
Silver price 1/23: $103.26
Silver price 1/30: $85.25

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/2: $4,331.09
Gold 1/9: $4,508.08
Gold 1/16: $4,595.42
Gold 1/23: $4,989.23
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71

Silver 1/2: $72.25
Silver 1/9: $79.34
Silver 1/16: $89.94
Silver 1/23: $102.95
Silver 1/30: $84.63

As everybody probably already knows, gold and silver took a pretty big hit on Friday, January 30. Analysts and pundits have been warning about a pullback, and boy, did they ever get one. Being that it was so abrupt and recent, one can only speculate as to the cause. Everybody didn't all at once decide it was time to take profits and cash in their coins, bars and jewelry. That would have been an impossibility. In fact, many dealers have closed their doors temporarily or put limits on redemptions, some offering 10 or 20% below spot and only on quantities of 100 or more ounces of silver or 10-20 ounces of gold. Local coin shops are being terrorized by fast-moving prices and seller demands. Buyers seeking silver close to spot will be sadly disappointed, as the weekly eBay survey shows median and average prices for silver remaining above $100 per ounce.

It's likely to take an extended period of sub-$100 silver prices to depress retail demand significantly enough to get premia down closer to spot, so the mantra for most of Sunday remains: Wait Until Monday. Holders of bullion, coins, stackers, goldbugs and owners with physical metal in their possession aren't about to unload here. The table's been set. What happened was some squirrels got into the banquet hall and ran roughshod over the china, crystal, and silverware. Once the little rodents are routed, precious metals can get back to what they do best, protecting wealth from evil influences.

One note on Friday's collapse: the only public fund investing in silver futures in mainland China, UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund, a listed open-ended fund, was suspended for the whole day Friday, the second such halt since January 22.

Noting that, the slam in gold and silver may have been necessary to keep a significant bank (UBS) from defaulting on multiple obligations and becoming insolvent, which is not something, like pregnancy, one can accomplish half-heartedly. One is either pregnant or not. Same with insolvency. Many financial institutions that have frolicked in the precious meadows fields for years with shorting antics may be feeling not a small amount of pain presently.

In case anybody thinks that Friday's action - as unusual as it was - is a one-off, likely not to be repeated, this could be only the beginning of extreme measures taken by LOFs (Lovers of Fiat) in opposition to sound money advocates.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	96.00	119.75	107.57	107.62
1 oz silver bar:	94.00	112.94	105.64	105.63
1 oz gold coin:	5,077.39	5,304.62	5,183.69	5,190.00
1 oz gold bar:	5,103.19	5,281.08	5,169.09	5,128.93

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took a pretty big hit this week, falling to $106.62, a decline of $10.38 from the January 25 price of $117.00 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets and growing retail investment in smaller, finished products, from grams to 1/2-ounce, 1-ounce, 5-ounce, and 10-ounce coins and bars.

WEEKEND WRAP

Incidentally, the FDIC announced on Friday the first bank failure of 2026. Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust operated a single office in Chicago with total assets of $261.1 million as of September 30, 2025. First Independence Bank agreed to assume deposits totaling $212.1 million at closing. Not anything big, at all. Just another case of unsound speculation by people who are supposed to know better.

Not a big deal. Monday is coming soon enough.

At the Close, Friday, January 30, 2026:
Dow: 48,892.47, -179.09 (-0.36%)
NASDAQ: 23,461.82, -223.30 (-0.94%)
S&P 500: 6,939.03, -29.98 (-0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 22,719.32, -156.13 (-0.68%)

For the Week:
Dow: -206.24 (-0.42%)
NASDAQ: -39.42 (-0.17%)
S&P 500: +23.42 (+0.34%)
NYSE Composite: -37.84 (-0.17%)
Dow Transports: +100.68 (+0.55%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Trump Nominates Kevin Warch for Next Fed Chairman; Gold, Silver Down Sharply with Foreign Markets Closed; Stock Futures Signaling January Flat or Lower

Assessing the performance of the major indices over the course of the week, returns through Thursday’s close show the Dow down 27 points, the NASDAQ ahead by 183 (+0.78%), and the S&P 500 up 53 (+0.77%).

As the final day of trading for January approaches, the major indices haven't shown much, as most of the action has been in commodities, particularly, gold, silver, and platinum, with crude oil catching a bid late in the month (+13.20%). The majors are tightly bunched for the month, and year-to-date, with the Dow leading with a 2.10% gain, followed by NASDAQ (+1.91%) and the S&P (+1.80%).

Silver led the way in the first month of 2026, with a gain of 42%, with gold up 17% year-to-date, both of those reflecting drawdowns overnight on the 29th into the morning of the 30th. Both were considerably higher as of Thursday's close, the COMEX gamers taking their best shot as the week and month draws to a close. Prices for precious metals remain much higher in Shanghai, Singapore, Dubai, Mumbai, and elsewhere. The drawdown is U.S. specific as market fragmentation continues to wreak havoc on U.S. coin dealers and refiners.

It's been widely reported that coin shops are being very judicious in their buying, as they have been flooded with customers looking to unload their gold and/or silver and a number of refiners - to whom the dealers offload inventory - have either closed their doors temporarily due to overstocked conditions and/or are delaying payment for up to a month. This has caused frustration for sellers who routinely expect to receive prices near spot, but are being low-balled or shut out entirely. One place at which reasonably fair prices can be had is on eBay, the online marketplace having the unique characteristic to react to price fluctuations in nearly real time.

Weighing on all markets is the declining dollar, which has fallen to levels on the DXY not seen in four years (96.62), in addition to tensions in the Middle East as U.S. warships steam closer to Iran, threatening an imminent assault.

At 7:00 am ET Friday morning, President Trump announced that he was naming Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, his term to begin on May 15, pending confirmation by the Senate, which is pretty much a formality as Warsh has strong credentials (Harvard Law, Fed Governor 2006-2011).

Trump's choice didn't help markets, sending almost everything lower as Warsh is considered to be hawkish on interest rates. Around 8:30 am ET, Dow futures are down 262, NASDAQ futures are off 180, and S&P futures are down 36 points. Gold and silver have been savaged, with silver at 96.91 and gold down 379 points, right at $5,000. Of course, most of this is for show. Once foreign markets open on Monday (they're already closed for the week), precious metals will likely stage a fairly strong rebound, but for now, all the doubters and reality-deniers will have their day.

Stocks will need some catalyst if they're to finish the month in positive territory and they'll get a little boost from the likes of American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobile (XOM), Colgate Palmolive (CL), all of which reported fourth quarter earnings Friday morning.

In pre-market trading, American Express (AXP) is down 2.5%, Verizon (VZ) is up 4.5%, Chevron (CVX) is flat, ExxonMobile (XOM) is ahead by nearly two percent, and Colgate Palmolive (CL) is up 2.75%.

Visa (V) and Apple (AAPL) reported after the bell Thursday. Both are down marginally, though SAP (SAP) is up by nearly two percent in pre-market trading.

This weekend might avail itself an opportune time to bomb Iran, as there's no major football games (Super Bowl is next weekend), stock market is closed (always Trump's preferred time to begin military actions) and stocks figure to be down to end the week. Will Trump give the go-ahead or will it be another TACO moment?

The January barometer may end up stuck at zero after today, giving stock jockeys little impetus going forward.

At the Close, Thursday, January 29, 2025:
Dow: 49,071.56, +55.96 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 23,685.12, -172.33 (-0.72%)
S&P 500: 6,969.01, -9.02 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 22,875.46, +75.36 (+0.33%)

Gold Soars with U.S. Attack on Iran Imminent; Earnings Keeping Major Averages Near All-Time Highs

Overnight, gold reached a high of $5596.20 as U.S. military assets stream into the Middle East in preparation for what looks certain to be a heavy assault on the nation of Iran.

President Trump has called on Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions or face a U.S. military incursion just months after telling the world that America's bombers had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear apparatus.

Apparently, that's not the case.

Just in the past two weeks, a U.S. and Israeli-led false flag color revolution protest failed to topple the Iranian regime, resulting in the capture, arrest, and execution of thousands of Mossad and CIA operatives along with their internal supporters. The "revolt" was thwarted by Iran block transmissions from Starlink, which the instigators were using to relay messages and coordinated disruptions. Reportedly, Iran received technical assistance from China in disabling the low-orbit satellites that transmit internet signals and have been used widely in Ukraine to target Russian assets.

With a U.S. and Israeli assault imminent, gold has ripped higher. It first crossed $5,000 on January 25. It took just three days to reach $5,500 and beyond.

Silver, which has recently been advancing at a more rapid pace than gold, has taken a back seat for now, though it surpassed $120 an ounce overnight and is currently showing a spot price of $119 just a half hour before the opening bell for U.S. stocks. Gold continues to hover in a range from $5,520 to $5,550, though it will likely advance higher once the almost certain attack commences. The most likely time for the U.S. to launch its assault would be over the weekend. President Trump hs shown a preference to not make military moves during market hours. He considers the stock market a yardstick for his exemplary economic performance.

Investors and speculators appear to be weighing the geopolitical event alongside earning reports from major tech companies. After the close Thursday, Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and IBM (IBM) all reported and Thursday morning saw another raft of high-profile companies jumping on the earnings bandwagon. Caterpillar (CT), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Altria (MO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Mastercard (MA), Nokia (NOK) Blackstone Group (BX), and Nasdaq (NDAQ) have all issued reports in the past three hours.

Heading into the open, a cautious advance market has Dow futures up 18 points, NASDAQ futures of 33, and S&P futures ahead by 15.

The gloves are off, kids.

50,000 on the Dow, $10,000 gold and $200 silver are distinct possibilities this year if we don't all get nuked first.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 28, 2026:
Dow: 49,015.60, +12.19 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 23,857.45, +40.35 (+0.17%)
S&P 500: 6,978.03, -0.57 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 22,800.11, -78.12 (-0.34%)

FOMC Policy Decision on Tap; Japan Bonds Stabilized, for Now; Trump Threatens Iran with Missile Strikes; Ukraine Over and Done?

Earnings season is in full swing.

Reporting after the close Thursday were PPG (PPG), Enova (ENVA), Texas Instruments (TXN), Logitech (LOGI), and Seagate (STX).

Wednesday before the open saw AT&T (T), Corning (GLW), General Dynamics (GD), Progressive Insurance (PGR), Starbucks (SBUX), ADP (ADP), ASML (ASML), GE Verona (GEV) throw out fourth quarter and full year numbers.

After the close Wednesday, post-FOMC policy decision, Lam Research (LRCX), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Levi's (LEVI), and LendingClub (LC) will issue reports.

The Fed is almost 100% certain to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. Any clues from Chairman Powell's presser will move markets north or south. If he signals rate cuts ahead, it's boom time. If he is more sanguine, stocks may take that as a sign that he intends to keep rates at or near where they are currently for the remainder of his term as Chair, which ends in May. Seemingly the most likely path, markets may slow the pace of the rally until President Trump anoints appoints the next Fed Chair. That should be around the start of the third quarter, plenty of time to juice the economy with big cuts ahead of the midterms. July, September, and October would appear to be on the list of FOMC meetings at which cuts would be announced.

Generally speaking, today's FOMC policy decision is little more than a sideshow, as ae earnings announcements. What the Fed is currently knee-deep in is the Japan problem. There has already been a coordinated central bank intervention dropping the USD/JPY from 158 down to 152, which bought some time, though the collateral damage strengthened the euro and pound. The entire exercise is a futile one; eventually all the fiats fail, as they have throughout history, every time. The only matter is whether the destruction of the international financial order will be swift and painful or slow and grinding. Either way, the end game will result in great pain, the U.S. will lose its exceptional privilege of the world's reserve currency, and the the BRICS countries will be calling the shots.

That's the long game, which nobody can time to perfection, and why gold especially has taken flight to new heights.

On the earnings front, briefly, Texas Instruments delivered a fourth quarter above expectations and positive forward guidance, highlighted by increased demand for its analog chips as an integral element in powering AI-related data centers. Pre-market, shares are flying, up more than seven percent.

Logitech (LOGI) beat estimates: Q3 EPS of $1.93, up 21% year-over-year, while revenues grew 6% to $1.42B, but the stock is down two percent pre-open.

PPG (PPG) reported $1.51 per share, missing estimates of $1.57 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.61 per share a year ago, making investors unhappy and selling off by more than two percent.

AT&T (T) is up two percent based on a solid quarter that beat estimates. The company saw improved subscriber growth and issued positive guidance.

General Dynamics (GD) reported fourth-quarter profit of $1.14 billion and EPS of 4.17, beating estimates for 4.11. Shares are flat.

Somewhat of a rarity, Starbucks (SBUX) shares are up more than six percent pre-market as the company's earnings miss estimates, but the chain's U.S. traffic grew for the first time in two years.

ASML was the morning's big winner, as the Netherlands-based chip equipment manufacturer saw strong order flow in the fourth quarter based on AI rollouts, announced plans to cut 1,700 jobs and raised its 2026 sales outlook amid increased AI-related investments. Shares of the company are up five percent prior to the opening bell.

Led by tech, NASDAQ futures are up nearly 200 points just before 9:00 am ET; S&P futures are sporting an 11-point gain while Dow futurs are flat.

Gold has soared again overnight, leaping as high as $5,310 and currently trading in a range around $5,250. Silver has taken a back seat this morning, but still advanced to as high as $116 and is holding around $114. Shanghai reports silver prices at $131, a spread of more than $15 above U.S. prices and indications for higher price targets overall. Silver is targeting $140-150 for March, gold, $6,000. The rally in precious metals, which has been on a torrid pace since October of 2025, is still in its early stage.

Any missteps by government or financial authorities is likely to send metals into overdrive, which is remarkable considering their recent moves, but there are a slew of issues on the table, the biggest being U.S. resumption of threats against Iran, general malaise in Minnesota, and the buffering of Japanese bonds keeping the yen afloat with coordinated intervention. The U.S. cannot afford to have Japan's central authority sell U.S. treasuries and upset the delicate balance between inflation and growth in the U.S. A yield on the 10-year note of anything above 4.80% (currently 4.25%) would signal distress globally.

While Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell continue to monitor the situation in Iran, they risk a revolt in the form of a loss of confidence. To date, they ='ve managed to keep the treasury complex within reasonable bounds, but a military strike on Iran could send yields - along with gold and silver - soaring. The monetary authorities are holding their own in the face of increasingly-dangerous policies from the Trump administration. The military has been moving assets into the area for weeks and appear to be preparing for an attack which would likely set off a major conflict. Iran is on high alert and will bomb Israel and U.S. bases throughout the region if they are assaulted.

Trump and the neocons throughout the Washington establishment continue to play with fire. Sooner or later, somebody is going to get burned. Meanwhile, it seems that the U.S. and Europe have given up on Ukraine and may be pondering moving the narrative to the Middle East, hoping their constituents won't notice their massive failure, allowing Russia a military victory and complete control of Ukraine.

At the Close, Tuesday, January 27, 2025:
Dow: 49,003.41, -408.99 (-0.83%)
NASDAQ: 23,817.10, +215.74 (+0.91%)
S&P 500: 6,978.60, +28.37 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 22,878.22, +49.08 (+0.22%)

Gold, Silver Rise and Fall Monday the World of the Usual Suspects and Not Important Long Term; Precious Metals, Stocks Should Continue to Rally

Stocks gained again on Monday - no big surprise there.

Gold and silver roared to record highs during the day, only to have them completely wiped out by the obviosly-still-functional price suppressors at the COMEX.

Gold traded as high as $5,102 on the spot market, before the afternoon raid by COMEX operators brought the price down to as low as $5,001. It does not take much analysis to understand that most gold investors did not all decide to sell in the same six hour window. The same applied to silver, which had reached incredible heights of $117 before getting whacked down to $103.

Whether the sudden collapses in gold and silver at the same time were about naked shorting or simply injecting fear into the marketplace matters little. The fact that the COMEX can still exert so much influence in spot pricing over such a short time frame is significant. However, the power of the COMEX has lost a great deal of its firepower, due to exchanges - physical and derivative - in Shanghai, Mumbai, Dubai, and elsewhere maintaining price controls that are unaffected by COMEX hijinks.

This can be seen in the quick rebound overnight into January 27 trading. Gold and silver have already regained much of the loss from the 26th. Gold and silver, just after 8:30 am ET, are trading at $5076 and $111, respectively. It may be advisable to simply ignore the daily noise. There are sure to be similar price smackdowns as the COMEX and U.S. authorities lose control of not just the price of gold and silver, but of their own economies and the entire fiat paper debt-based global system.

Unless your investment horizon is less than six months out, daily fluctuations and COMEX-induced scary declines should be almost completely ignored. Those events are the final grasping at straws of a drowning financial system, at which the U.S. is the center, though the heaviest impacts are first being felt in Japan, and next in the EU. Fiat debasement is real and ongoing, but it is very difficult to time. All one needs to know in this environment is that debasement is at the root of all trades, has not ceased, and is unlikely to cease. Gold, silver, stocks, real estate will all continue to appreciate until fiscal policy becomes more responsible, which, considering the current crop of politicians endlessly raiding the treasury, would equate to approximately never.

The debasement trade has been underway for the last fifty years, though it hasn't been as manifest as it is today except in the late 1970s, and during the boom-bust cycles of 2000, 2008, and 2020, the most prominent being the 2008 GFC for precious metals and the 2020 Covid crisis for extreme dollar creation.

As currency debasements go, this one seems to be in the latter stages, and appears to be heading for a climactic endgame within the next three to five years. It could all blow up tomorrow or it could take until 2030 for the wheels to fall off completely. One thing is certain. The system will reset. Inflation, be it the three percent the government continues ot peddle or the seven to 12% that consumers realize on every shopping trip, will be the death-blow.

There are loads of moving parts, from BRICS de-dollarization to Minnesota anti-ICE rebellion and everything in between. What's good for investors at this point is that all assets will appreciate. The trick is to make gains in excess of inflation. Gold and silver kicked inflation to the curb in 2025 and are doing the same in 2026. Stocks were well behind, but still won out over currency debasement. So, keep stacking, and keep trading is about the only investment strategy one needs to stay liquid and prosperous. It's unlikely to remain this blissfully easy for much longer, but probably at least until the US midterms in November or until something breaks badly.

Taking profits at this time would depend largely on one's own investment horizons, but the big question is what to do with the depreciating currency - which Matthew Peipenberg describes as holding "a melting ice cube" - after the sale. Big item purchases with lasting value appear to be the most sensible choice, which would explain why durable goods orders have been on the rise for the past nine months. New or used cars, big ticket home repairs and renovations, large appliances, or re-allocating from one asset class to another are all reasonable choices.

Futures are mixed with the Dow diving as the opening bell approaches. The likely reason for the drop on the Dow is the market's reading on some of these earnings reports: UPS (UPS), General Motors (GM), Synchrony Financial (SYF), American Airlines (AAL), Northrop-Grumman (NOC), Kimberly-Clark (KMB, Boeing (BA), United Health (UNH).

At the Close, Monday, January 26, 2026:
Dow: 49,412.40, +313.69 (+0.64%)
NASDAQ: 23,601.36, +100.11 (+0.43%)
S&P 500: 6,950.23, +34.62 (+0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 22,829.14, +71.97 (+0.32%)