Will markets never learn?
Every year, on the half-day session that is Black Friday, stocks get a giddy bounce over the prospects of rabid holiday shopping frenzy and a warm, cozy, holiday feeling about consumer spending.
This year's half-day wonder was no exception. In fact, it was exceptional, as stocks soared at the open and added to outsize gains on extreme low volume. The gains were among the top five, point-wise, for the major averages this year, surging through overhead resistance, especially on the S&P 500, which broke above its 200-day moving averages. It was a sucker's rally to beat all suckers.
Priced into the advances were widespread, solid rumors that third quarter GDP would be revised upward from 2% to 2.8 or maybe even 3% next week.
These signs of exuberance may be tempered once the politicians get back into the mix. Republicans and Democrats are reportedly far apart on negotiations to solve fiscal cliff issues, with Republicans still demanding that Bush-era tax cuts on the rich remain in place, while Democrats wish to raise rates on earners over $250,000 per annum while keeping in place lower rates for the rest of American taxpayers.
Rest up and get some exercise to work off those additional pounds socked away on Thanksgiving. Everyone will be in need of extra energy to keep up with developments next week.
And just in case anybody thought the truce in the Middle East was one of lasting quality, Israelites and Palestinians barely took a break in killing each other. In response, silver tallied the biggest percentage gain of the day (2.23%) and gold rose by more than $23.00. So much for stability.
Black Friday Special: Free houses with zero down leases with no payments until the Fed raises interest rates, on new Cadillacs for everybody!
Dow 13,009.68, +172.79 (1.35%)
Nasdaq 2,966.85, +40.30 (1.38%)
S&P 500 1,409.15, +18.12 (1.30%)
NYSE Composite 8,220.31, 108.13(1.33%)
NYSE Volume 1,423,529,125
Nasdaq Volume 743,239,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4192-1058
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 135-37
WTI crude oil: 88.00, +0.62
Gold: 1,752.10, +23.90
Silver: 34.10, +0.745
Friday, November 23, 2012
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Stocks Get Pre-Holiday Bounce on Israel-Gaza Truce
Looking as hard as possible for positive news upon which to launch a rally, the Wall Street casino got what it wanted from US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, who brokered a truce in the ongoing warfare between the state of Israel and militants in the Gaza Strip.
Announced just after noon Eastern Time, the truce was to begin at 2:00 pm ET, or roughly 9:00 pm Tel Aviv time.
How long the truce will remain n force is anybody's guess. The conflict in the Palestinian area of the Middle East has been going on for as long as most of us can remember, so whatever is achieved will be short-term at best, just like almost everything else these days, a matter of how far down a given road one can kick a can.
Outside the news that Palestinians and Israelis won't be trying to kill each other overtly for a few days, there was little going on to make investors optimistic.
Hostess, which had been in bankruptcy and was the recent victim of an ill-advised strike by the baker's union, went through a day of mediation and returned to court, where the judge signed off on liquidation of the company that used to make Ho-Hos, Twinkies, Ding-Dongs and assorted junk foods that have contributed in no small way to the epidemic of diabetes in this country.
Probably, it's for the good of the country - and fata$$es worldwide - that the company goes under.
Looking ahead, there's a half-day session on Friday, following the Thanksgiving holiday, which usually results in an eventually meaningless Black Friday rally as millions of misguided Americans crowd stores, malls and shopping centers to buy worthless trinkets and electronic gadgets for friends and relatives.
Too bad Christmas will never get here, as the world is scheduled to end on December 22, according to the Incas, or Aztecs, or somebody.
Well, nobody likes a Scrooge at this time of year, so...
Free iPads and Houses for Everybody! And free Twinkies, too!
Happy Thanksgiving. Stay hungry, my friends.
Dow 12,836.89, +48.38 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,926.55, +9.87 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,391.03, +3.22 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 8,112.20, +25.78 (0.32%)
NYSE Volume 2,647,812,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,406,020,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3577-1856
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-71
WTI crude oil: 87.38, +0.63
Gold: 1,728.20, +4.60
Silver: 33.35, +0.42
Announced just after noon Eastern Time, the truce was to begin at 2:00 pm ET, or roughly 9:00 pm Tel Aviv time.
How long the truce will remain n force is anybody's guess. The conflict in the Palestinian area of the Middle East has been going on for as long as most of us can remember, so whatever is achieved will be short-term at best, just like almost everything else these days, a matter of how far down a given road one can kick a can.
Outside the news that Palestinians and Israelis won't be trying to kill each other overtly for a few days, there was little going on to make investors optimistic.
Hostess, which had been in bankruptcy and was the recent victim of an ill-advised strike by the baker's union, went through a day of mediation and returned to court, where the judge signed off on liquidation of the company that used to make Ho-Hos, Twinkies, Ding-Dongs and assorted junk foods that have contributed in no small way to the epidemic of diabetes in this country.
Probably, it's for the good of the country - and fata$$es worldwide - that the company goes under.
Looking ahead, there's a half-day session on Friday, following the Thanksgiving holiday, which usually results in an eventually meaningless Black Friday rally as millions of misguided Americans crowd stores, malls and shopping centers to buy worthless trinkets and electronic gadgets for friends and relatives.
Too bad Christmas will never get here, as the world is scheduled to end on December 22, according to the Incas, or Aztecs, or somebody.
Well, nobody likes a Scrooge at this time of year, so...
Free iPads and Houses for Everybody! And free Twinkies, too!
Happy Thanksgiving. Stay hungry, my friends.
Dow 12,836.89, +48.38 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,926.55, +9.87 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,391.03, +3.22 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 8,112.20, +25.78 (0.32%)
NYSE Volume 2,647,812,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,406,020,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3577-1856
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-71
WTI crude oil: 87.38, +0.63
Gold: 1,728.20, +4.60
Silver: 33.35, +0.42
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Amid Flurry of News and Rumor, Stocks End Flat
It's not official until Thursday, but we're pretty much in the holiday season, which means a few things:
1. Trading volumes should be low;
2. Volatility will not manifest (unless there's a war or no deal on the fiscal cliff);
3. A lot of people will be booking profits, i.e., selling;
4. Nobody will take anything with any enormous level of seriousness; people will be more concerned with shopping, eating and visiting relatives and friends.
While those are broad considerations, they more than likely point to a sideways-moving market for the next few weeks. Not to say that there won't be money to be made - there always is - but adroitness and nimble movements will be the key to staying just slightly ahead of the curve.
There's a very good possibility that although the general indices will remain somewhat range-bound, the actual swings could be large from lows to highs. Considering that the Dow is coming off an 1100 point decline, there's room on the upside as well as ample opportunity for the congress and president to blow the whole deal on the fiscal cliff - in fact, the likelihood of them posturing, fuming, arguing and delaying the deal until the last possible moment is paramount.
So, the advice for the remainder of 2012 is as follows: play along, keep tight stops, but look for opportunities as they present themselves. We're going nowhere but sideways to down, with the probability of an upside move of say, 500 Dow points, about zero, while the probability of a huge move in the opposite direction is about 30=40%.
During the recent pullback, every rally was sold into, and every sell-off was partially exacerbated by a little bit of panic - not over losing money, but losing what profits one had already achieved. There were two major downdrafts over the past month: the first, mid-to-late October, and the second, larger move, right after the election and lasting until yesterday.
Anyone paying attention will note that the Dow and the BASDAQ are both still mired below their 200-day moving averages, while the S&P continues to flirt with the up-and-downside of its own 200-day MA. These are difficult positions to maintain, and, in the case of all of the major indices, there is nearly unlimited potential to slide, as no solid support is evident. Today's scary mid-afternoon plunge was fought off by some spirited insider buying. If there's any clue to the action, it's that those heavily-invested in this market are not fully out, nor are they fully exposed. There's still too much on the table needing to be resolved.
Just as yesterday's rally was a one-off event, so too today's nothing finish after a number of major events, including a possible truce in the Israel-Hamas conflict (not gonna happen), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) writing down nine billion of an $11 billion investment and claiming fraud; the biggest insider trading scheme ever being exposed and set to be prosecuted. That was almost enough to tip the averages over the edge, but, for whatever reasons and whatever positions they are defending, the big money inside Wall Street was not about to let it happen. Not certainly just before a holiday and the start of the retail buying spree.
It's going to get more interesting, but not until next week. In the meantime, everybody's on pins and needles, not the kind of seat one would prefer for a Thanksgiving dinner.
Dow 12,788.51, -7.45 (0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,916.68, +0.61 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,387.81, +0.92 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 8,086.41, +6.12(0.08%)
NYSE Volume 3,182,159,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,585,562,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2870-2606
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-88
WTI crude oil: 86.75, -2.53
Gold: 1,723.60, -10.80
Silver: 32.93, -0.259
1. Trading volumes should be low;
2. Volatility will not manifest (unless there's a war or no deal on the fiscal cliff);
3. A lot of people will be booking profits, i.e., selling;
4. Nobody will take anything with any enormous level of seriousness; people will be more concerned with shopping, eating and visiting relatives and friends.
While those are broad considerations, they more than likely point to a sideways-moving market for the next few weeks. Not to say that there won't be money to be made - there always is - but adroitness and nimble movements will be the key to staying just slightly ahead of the curve.
There's a very good possibility that although the general indices will remain somewhat range-bound, the actual swings could be large from lows to highs. Considering that the Dow is coming off an 1100 point decline, there's room on the upside as well as ample opportunity for the congress and president to blow the whole deal on the fiscal cliff - in fact, the likelihood of them posturing, fuming, arguing and delaying the deal until the last possible moment is paramount.
So, the advice for the remainder of 2012 is as follows: play along, keep tight stops, but look for opportunities as they present themselves. We're going nowhere but sideways to down, with the probability of an upside move of say, 500 Dow points, about zero, while the probability of a huge move in the opposite direction is about 30=40%.
During the recent pullback, every rally was sold into, and every sell-off was partially exacerbated by a little bit of panic - not over losing money, but losing what profits one had already achieved. There were two major downdrafts over the past month: the first, mid-to-late October, and the second, larger move, right after the election and lasting until yesterday.
Anyone paying attention will note that the Dow and the BASDAQ are both still mired below their 200-day moving averages, while the S&P continues to flirt with the up-and-downside of its own 200-day MA. These are difficult positions to maintain, and, in the case of all of the major indices, there is nearly unlimited potential to slide, as no solid support is evident. Today's scary mid-afternoon plunge was fought off by some spirited insider buying. If there's any clue to the action, it's that those heavily-invested in this market are not fully out, nor are they fully exposed. There's still too much on the table needing to be resolved.
Just as yesterday's rally was a one-off event, so too today's nothing finish after a number of major events, including a possible truce in the Israel-Hamas conflict (not gonna happen), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) writing down nine billion of an $11 billion investment and claiming fraud; the biggest insider trading scheme ever being exposed and set to be prosecuted. That was almost enough to tip the averages over the edge, but, for whatever reasons and whatever positions they are defending, the big money inside Wall Street was not about to let it happen. Not certainly just before a holiday and the start of the retail buying spree.
It's going to get more interesting, but not until next week. In the meantime, everybody's on pins and needles, not the kind of seat one would prefer for a Thanksgiving dinner.
Dow 12,788.51, -7.45 (0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,916.68, +0.61 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,387.81, +0.92 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 8,086.41, +6.12(0.08%)
NYSE Volume 3,182,159,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,585,562,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2870-2606
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-88
WTI crude oil: 86.75, -2.53
Gold: 1,723.60, -10.80
Silver: 32.93, -0.259
Monday, November 19, 2012
Washington Goes Home, Wall Street Throws a Party
President Obama is in the Far East on a multi-nation god-will tour. The rest of the politicians in Washington, the congress, have mostly gone back to their districts for a holiday break (that's why we love our "leaders" so much - while we get a four-day weekend, they take the whole week off.
With nobody around to moan and bemoan the national crisis known as the fiscal cliff, Wall Street took the opportunity to buy everything in sight - even before Black Friday, as sentiment has shifted from worrisome to ebullient and a majority of traders think that congress and the president will come to some kind of deal prior to the January 1 deadline.
While such optimism may be well-founded, it also may not be. There's still no deal to speak of, and the politicos won't get to work on one until next Monday at the earliest. One would think that people as smart as those on Wall Street would know better than to trust the words of politicians, especially this current bunch, which has a track record of disagreeing on just about everything, but the bulls took command on Monday and sent stocks soaring into the stratosphere.
It should figure. There are a full five weeks until the next payday, otherwise known as options expiration, on Friday, December 21, and plenty of time for stocks to rise or fall. Also, all the inside money made all the best moves, as stocks went skyward right at the open, locking out the less nimble and less-connected retail investors.
There was more good news on housing, as existing home sales rose 2.1% month-over-month and the homebuilders' index catapulted to levels not seen since the giddy, boom days of 2006.
So, all of a sudden, everything is rosy again. Until it's not, that is, which should be tomorrow or maybe some time next week.
It pays to pay attention to this attention-deficit market, though it may not pay to actually participate in it.
The show continues tomorrow...
Meanwhile, in the basement of the Federal Reserve, is Ben Bernanke quietly printing a gazillion dollars on his HP Officejet 4620 Wireless Multifunction Printer - Wireless Printers (Google Affiliate Ad)?
Dow 12,795.96, +207.65(1.65%)
NASDAQ 2,916.07, +62.94(2.21%)
S&P 500 1,386.89, +27.01(1.99%)
NYSE Composite 8,080.29, +148.74(1.88%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,766,584,880
NYSE Volume 3,335,809,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4681-872
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 75-85
WTI crude oil: 89.28, +2.36
Gold: 1,734.40, +19.70
Silver: 33.19, +0.819
With nobody around to moan and bemoan the national crisis known as the fiscal cliff, Wall Street took the opportunity to buy everything in sight - even before Black Friday, as sentiment has shifted from worrisome to ebullient and a majority of traders think that congress and the president will come to some kind of deal prior to the January 1 deadline.
While such optimism may be well-founded, it also may not be. There's still no deal to speak of, and the politicos won't get to work on one until next Monday at the earliest. One would think that people as smart as those on Wall Street would know better than to trust the words of politicians, especially this current bunch, which has a track record of disagreeing on just about everything, but the bulls took command on Monday and sent stocks soaring into the stratosphere.
It should figure. There are a full five weeks until the next payday, otherwise known as options expiration, on Friday, December 21, and plenty of time for stocks to rise or fall. Also, all the inside money made all the best moves, as stocks went skyward right at the open, locking out the less nimble and less-connected retail investors.
There was more good news on housing, as existing home sales rose 2.1% month-over-month and the homebuilders' index catapulted to levels not seen since the giddy, boom days of 2006.
So, all of a sudden, everything is rosy again. Until it's not, that is, which should be tomorrow or maybe some time next week.
It pays to pay attention to this attention-deficit market, though it may not pay to actually participate in it.
The show continues tomorrow...
Meanwhile, in the basement of the Federal Reserve, is Ben Bernanke quietly printing a gazillion dollars on his HP Officejet 4620 Wireless Multifunction Printer - Wireless Printers (Google Affiliate Ad)?
Dow 12,795.96, +207.65(1.65%)
NASDAQ 2,916.07, +62.94(2.21%)
S&P 500 1,386.89, +27.01(1.99%)
NYSE Composite 8,080.29, +148.74(1.88%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,766,584,880
NYSE Volume 3,335,809,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4681-872
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 75-85
WTI crude oil: 89.28, +2.36
Gold: 1,734.40, +19.70
Silver: 33.19, +0.819
Friday, November 16, 2012
John Boehner Rescues Markets... for Today
Stocks were slip-sliding away again on Friday until Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner, emerged from a meeting with the president sounding very conciliatory and committed to a deal on the fiscal cliff issues facing the federal government.
Boehner spoke to the press just before noon, as stocks reached their lows of the day. Following his remarks that there was a "framework" in the negotiations - which include fellow Republican Mitch McConnell, Nancy Peolsi and Senate majority leader Harry Reid - stocks took off on a tear, with all the major indices quickly erasing losses and turing positive, where they remained, for the most part, into the close.
The Dow, which had been sporting a loss of 71 points, rallied 120 points in a matter of twenty minutes.
Boehner has a tricky path to navigate, between playing hard ball with Democrats while keeping his fellow Republicans - especially those of the Tea Party denomination - from mutiny and potentially blowing up negotiations, but for today, at least, he played the part of a Wall Street superhero.
A couple of other salient points on which to close out the week:
October industrial production dropped 0.4% and capacity utilization fell from 78.2 to 77.8, a significant decline, suggesting that the economy may not be just limping along, but actually slipping.
The advance-decline line was positive for the first time this week, though new lows were once again ahead of new highs, for the eighth consecutive session, or, for those cynics in our midst, since the re-election of President Obama.
It was a real downer of a week for the bulls, especially being options expiry on Friday, a day usually reserved for back-slapping and rounds of drinks over big scores. There was probably more crying into beers late this afternoon than glad-handing fellow insiders.
That's a wrap, and don't expect much next week, as the market faces a short week with a half-day session on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Additionally, President Obama will be visiting the Far East during the week, so no meaningful negotiations are likely until his return and after the weekend, leaving the politicians just about four weeks before Christmas to work things out.
Good luck with that.
Dow 12,588.31, +45.93 (0.37%)
NASDAQ 2,853.13, +16.19 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,359.88, +6.55 (0.48%)
NYSE Composite 7,931.55, +34.67 (0.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,191,482,500
NYSE Volume 3,991,566,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3638-1796
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 28-329
WTI crude oil: 86.67, +1.22
Gold: 1,714.70, +0.90
Silver: 32.37, -0.304
Boehner spoke to the press just before noon, as stocks reached their lows of the day. Following his remarks that there was a "framework" in the negotiations - which include fellow Republican Mitch McConnell, Nancy Peolsi and Senate majority leader Harry Reid - stocks took off on a tear, with all the major indices quickly erasing losses and turing positive, where they remained, for the most part, into the close.
The Dow, which had been sporting a loss of 71 points, rallied 120 points in a matter of twenty minutes.
Boehner has a tricky path to navigate, between playing hard ball with Democrats while keeping his fellow Republicans - especially those of the Tea Party denomination - from mutiny and potentially blowing up negotiations, but for today, at least, he played the part of a Wall Street superhero.
A couple of other salient points on which to close out the week:
October industrial production dropped 0.4% and capacity utilization fell from 78.2 to 77.8, a significant decline, suggesting that the economy may not be just limping along, but actually slipping.
The advance-decline line was positive for the first time this week, though new lows were once again ahead of new highs, for the eighth consecutive session, or, for those cynics in our midst, since the re-election of President Obama.
It was a real downer of a week for the bulls, especially being options expiry on Friday, a day usually reserved for back-slapping and rounds of drinks over big scores. There was probably more crying into beers late this afternoon than glad-handing fellow insiders.
That's a wrap, and don't expect much next week, as the market faces a short week with a half-day session on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Additionally, President Obama will be visiting the Far East during the week, so no meaningful negotiations are likely until his return and after the weekend, leaving the politicians just about four weeks before Christmas to work things out.
Good luck with that.
Dow 12,588.31, +45.93 (0.37%)
NASDAQ 2,853.13, +16.19 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,359.88, +6.55 (0.48%)
NYSE Composite 7,931.55, +34.67 (0.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,191,482,500
NYSE Volume 3,991,566,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3638-1796
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 28-329
WTI crude oil: 86.67, +1.22
Gold: 1,714.70, +0.90
Silver: 32.37, -0.304
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