Thursday, October 11, 2012

Push Rally Fades as Unemployment Data is Corrupted

Stocks turned in a split decision on Thursday, with the Dow and NASDAQ finishing negative, while the S&P and Composite posted marginal gains.

Based upon rumor, innuendo, corrupted unemployment claims data and speculation that stocks had become "oversold" (what a joke!), all of the major indices opened higher, but by 11:00 am EDT began to slide off their highs, demonstrating the kind of pattern that is typical of bear markets, but also reminiscent of the many hype rallies that the centrally-controlled markets have made commonplace.

By the end of the day, stocks had given up all their gains (the Dow reach a peak some 71 points higher than yesterday's close), with the Dow suffering its fourth straight negative close, the NASDAQ making it five in a row for the bears.

According to reports, such as this one from CNN, the Labor Department suggested the drop in initial claims to 339,000, the lowest number in over four years and a decline of 30,000 from last week, was due to a technical issue.

The Labor Department noted to journalists that one state - unnamed - posted a large decline in claims, something not normal for the last week in September, which is the end of the third quarter.

This unusual report comes less than a week after the non-farm payroll report for September sent the official unemployment rate to 7.8%, also more than a four year low. Some have charged that the BLS NFP report was corrupted due to politics, noting that no sitting president since FDR had won re-election with an unemployment rate over eight percent.

Whatever the case, the market, for a change, isn't buying it, so the insider bankers and their friends in high political places will have to do better than that if they want to keep stocks levitating, as they have been since June.

Additionally, investors are looking forward to third quarter earnings reports from JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) along with PPI for September prior to the opening of trading on Friday. The monthly University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is also on tap for Friday at 9:55 am EDT. The market is expecting a reading of 78.5 after last month's 78.3.

Stocks are on track for their worst week in four months, though today's A-D line showed marked improvement and new highs outpaced new lows, 146-55.

Dow 13,326.39, -18.58 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 3,049.38, -2.40 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,432.84, +0.28 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,256.66, +27.48 (0.33%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,583,197,750
NYSE Volume 3,622,859,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3463-2002
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 146-55
WTI crude oil: 92.07, +0.82
Gold: 1,770.60, +5.50
Silver: 34.08, -0.027

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