With everything on hold over the Memorial Day weekend according to the latest tweets, truths, and messaging from the White House, a positive vibe seems to be the dominant expression, with a "solution" being suggested by politicians and the media.
A subtle shift is taking place, one in which "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon" is being replaced with "we must open the Strait of Hormuz." The president is on his back foot in terms of negotiating power, and the very real possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen with only a commitment from Iran that they will continue to "negotiate" over the nuclear issue.
Such an outcome would give the president two things he sorely needs: a near-term win, lowering the price of oil and gas; and, time to set the agenda through the midterms, with the possibility of resuming hostilities after the elections.
This agenda would likely be positive for stocks and fixed income, considering that the government might find it within its best interests to lower the price of gas at the pump (buy votes) and have Trump and the Republicans appear as heroes and deal-makers. While one can't make this stuff up, politicians believe they can and will likely try.
Good luck.
Stocks
The week just past was solidly positive for industrials and only marginally appealing to tech. The Dow was up well more than double that of the S&P in percentage terms, and held a five-fold edge over the NASDAQ. The Dow made all-time closing highs on Thursday and again on Friday, with the other indices within spitting distance of their record highs.
Bubble markets being what the name implies, there's little doubt as to the direction of all stocks. The piling on and crowding of trades is nearing an "all in" condition, which is the normal set-up for a rapid correction, though that moment still seems far away. Momentum and political ties will take stocks higher unless something disruptive and unexpected - a black swan - occurs. With the government's near-complete control of the media narrative, even nuking New York City would probably be spun as a positive development, sending stocks even higher. There's no fighting it. Nobody wants protections. Puts are pretty cheap because they usually end up at zero come maturity.
The week ahead offers only a few stragglers reporting first quarter 2026 results with the focus on retail:
Tuesday: (before open) Elbit Systems (ESLT), AutoZone (AZO), Champion Homes (SKY); (after close) SilverCorp Metals (SVM), Box (BOX)
Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Bat & Body Works (BBWI), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS); (after close) Salesforce (CRM), HP (HPQ), Marvell (MRVL)
Thursday: (before open) Hormel Foods (HRL), Kohl's (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington (BURL); (after close) Costco (COST), AutoDesk (ADSK), Gap Inc. (GAP), Dell (DELL)
Friday: (before open) BitFuFu (FUFU), Knot Offshore (KNOP)
Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View. Here are a few relevant data drops for the four-day week ahead:
Tuesday brings the back-dated S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index, Wednesday has the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Johnson Redbook Index, and the ADP weekly Employment numbers. Inflation is on review Thursday with the monthly PCE Price Index and employment gets numbers from the weekly jobless claims. Thursday will be notable for the second estimate of first quarter GDP and Durable Goods orders. Friday provides the Goods Trade Balance, and Retail and Wholesale Inventories.
The outlook for weeks and months ahead are cloudy, as the political levers being pulled relate significantly to inflation, employment, and making new all-time highs in stocks. Every move higher in stocks has to be questioned from a fundamental standpoint. The U.S. cannot continue to price stocks in bubble-land. Valuations are material; prices, ephemeral.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/17/2026 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.73 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.64 |
| 04/24/2026 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.67 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.76 | 3.71 | 3.73 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.69 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 3.75 |
| 05/15/2026 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.76 | 3.77 | 3.82 |
| 05/22/2026 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.78 | 3.79 | 3.86 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/17/2026 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.84 | 4.04 | 4.26 | 4.85 | 4.88 |
| 04/24/2026 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 4.10 | 4.31 | 4.88 | 4.91 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3.88 | 3.91 | 4.02 | 4.20 | 4.39 | 4.96 | 4.97 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3.90 | 3.92 | 4.02 | 4.19 | 4.38 | 4.93 | 4.95 |
| 05/15/2026 | 4.09 | 4.14 | 4.26 | 4.43 | 4.59 | 5.14 | 5.12 |
| 05/22/2026 | 4.13 | 4.18 | 4.27 | 4.41 | 4.56 | 5.06 | 5.07 |
Yields fell overall this week for maturities longer than five years, though not substantially. The 30-year bond yield has held over five percent for two weeks running. While interest rates are assumed to have something to do with the Middle East conflict, they have more to do with general U.S. monetary policy, which is still considered to be very loose, the government continuing to borrow and raise the overall debt to nearly $40 trillion.
It doesn't go unnoticed that U.S. debt to GDP is 137% while Russia's is 14%. After a while - a condition currently underway - lenders to the U.S. are demanding higher returns and the reserve status of the dollar is in severe decline. The dollar index has wavered between 96 and 101 for the past year, but it's down substantially since January, 2025, just prior to Trump's inauguration, of 110.
Erosion of confidence in a reserve currency is not something that happens overnight unless it is caused by government dictate or devaluation. The long term trend remains to the downside as the reality of inflation ramps up. Another financial crisis could take the DXY to below 70, at which point the U.S. goose may be fully cooked. It's somewhat heartening that the free-spending U.S. government has managed other keep some buyers of its debt happy, but the costs are enormous. Interest on the debt is likely to become the largest expenditure - it's already #3 or #4, behind medicare/medicaid, social security, and the military, depending on the upcoming 2027 budget, which is soon to be negotiated.
While the president may wish for lower interest rates, wishing would be the appropriate term, as there is little to appetite at the Fed - even with the changing of the guar from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh - because inflation numbers continue to rise. Ending the Iran conflict would be a short-term patch, as the latest CPI and PPI inflation figures were tied, in large part, to oil and gasoline. Bringing down those prices are high on the president's agenda and could influence upcoming FOMC policy.
For now, however, 4.50% on the 10-year note and 5.00% on the 30-year bond are appearing as bottoms. The White House, stuck between surrender of principles in the Middle East and rampaging inflation at home, will likely make the political decision to back down on demands against Iran and get the gas at the pump price down. Midterms are less than six months away and a chorus of Republicans up for re-election are piping their tune directly into President Trump's ear.
Spreads took a bit of a breather from the high end, with 2s-10s dropping to +43 and the 30-days-30-years full spectrum dropping six basis points to +135, though the potential for spreads to run hotter is, at the same time, beneficial to banking interests, but harmful to the currency, as yield gains would likely occur at the long end of the curve under current and expected conditions.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
Oil/Gas
Thanks to the ongoing White House narrative of "nearing a deal" in the Iran conflict, WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $97.00, 101.16, down from last Friday’s New York closing price of $101.16, though remaining in the recent range of $90-110. Supposedly, resumption of regular flows from the Persian Gulf would clip the price per barrel by $15-20, perhaps more, depending on the strength of commitment on both sides of the conflict to adhere to general outlines.
Over the Memorial Day weekend, word continues to emanate from Trump Palace that negotiations with Iran are proceeding and nearing a conclusion, a draft proposal acceptable to not just Iran and the U.S., but to other countries in the region. This same game continues to play out, with hopes dashed on a regular basis and the price of oil rising again. To Trump's credit, he's kept the price in a range that isn't too damaging to U.S. consumers.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.50 this week, no change.
Americans, having been through gas hikes and energy crises before, are adjusting and conserving wherever possible, though further increases in food and energy prices may be too much too bear and the politicians are acutely aware of that.
Prices in key states:
California (leader): $6.10 (-0.03)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.00)
Oklahoma: $3.97 (+0.02)
Mississippi (lowest): $3.95 (-0.01)
Florida: $4.37 (+0.17)
Illinois: $4.61 (-0.01)
Pennsylvania: $4.62 (-0.05)
New York: $4.57 (-0.01)
Maryland: $4.49 (+0.04)
Michigan: $4.64 (-0.19)
Texas: $4.03 (+0.11)
Georgia: $3.96 (0.00)
On Sunday, May 24th, there are just five (5) states with average prices below $4.00 (Oklahoma, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia, same number as last week, with Indiana replacing Texas, 43 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.68) and Alaska ($5.32), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past week as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging right around $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.
Bitcoin
This week: $76,800.00
Last week: $78,015.76
2 weeks ago: $80,800.68
6 months ago: $88,321.30
One year ago: $108,096.50
Five years ago: $34,592.16
Any purchase of bitcoin since mid-November, 2024 - a period of 18 months and counting - has resulted in a loss if still held today. This artificial currency is worth cow turds. Ask a car dealer if they'll take a bitcoin for a new Ford F-150 or a bank to use your bitcoin as a down payment on a house. The answer will be the same: convert it to U.S. dollars and you've got a deal.
Why bother, when just holding cash for the last 18 months would have saved money. Thanks to inflation, bitcoiners are losing purchasing power on a regular basis and that subtraction is gearing up to be even worse.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 59.73; last week: 59.75
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver and gold finished out the week nearly unchanged, though both metals experienced considerable, range-bound volatility. Gold traded as high as $4,598 and as low as $4,453. Silver hit $78.88 and bottomed at $73.06. There are opposing forces tugging at precious metals. With interest rates on the rise, some investors might opt for the 4+ percent return on treasuries or corporate bonds. At the other end, inflation erodes purchasing power, making PMs an obvious choice for wealth protection. In addition to the usual strangulation tactics in COMEX futures, these forces are keeping PMs stuck in a range, for now.
Premiums are still at high levels for physical with bullion (bars), charging higher as opposed to specie (coins). The usual spread between bars and coins has shrunk considerably to a point at which they are nearly equal, around $200 per ounce. The spread on silver has regularly favored bars, premia now roughly higher by $4-5.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 76.77 | 105.00 | 85.46 | 84.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 79.00 | 112.50 | 90.61 | 89.72 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4660.50 | 4775.96 | 4722.68 | 4727.61 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4700.91 | 4755.50 | 4717.93 | 4710.36 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly, to $87.45, a gain of 37 cents from the May 17 price of $87.08 per troy ounce, well within the recent range.
WEEKEND WRAP
Happy Memorial Day. Summer approaches post haste. Keep your friends close and your powder dry.
At the Close, Friday, May 22, 2026:
Dow: 50,579.70, +294.04 (+0.58%)
NASDAQ: 26,343.97, +50.87 (+0.19%)
S&P 500: 7,473.47, +27.75 (+0.37%)
NYSE Composite: 23,225.75, +98.07 (+0.42%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1053.53 (+2.13%)
NASDAQ: +118.82 (+0.45%)
S&P 500: +64.97 (+0.88%)
NYSE Composite: +436.32 (+1.87%)
Dow Transports: +633.23 (+3.15%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.