WEEKEND WRAP: Celebrating Labor or Servitude?

“If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.” -- Samuel Adams

Samuel Adams thus phrased his passionate appeal to the American people to reject British rule and to defend their freedoms, in a speech to the Second Continental Congress on August 1, 1776, from the steps of the State House in Philadelphia. Pennsylvania, in the midst of the American Revolution, as Congress debated independence.

How far have we come?

On Monday, September 7, Labor Day will be celebrated across the United States. There will be parades and picnics, beer and hot dogs, and a day off for most Americans who toil for a living.

Before it was a federal holiday, Labor Day was recognized by labor activists and individual states. After municipal ordinances were passed in 1885 and 1886, a movement developed to secure state legislation. New York was the first state to introduce a bill, but Oregon was the first to pass a law recognizing Labor Day, on February 21, 1887. During 1887, four more states – Colorado, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York – passed laws creating a Labor Day holiday. By the end of the decade Connecticut, Nebraska and Pennsylvania had followed suit. By 1894, 23 more states had adopted the holiday, and on June 28, 1894, Congress passed an act making the first Monday in September of each year a legal holiday.

-- History of Labor Day, U.S. Department of Labor

Some lucky people will get paid for the day off. A paid holiday, how nice. And the government will tax their wages and tax the wages of everybody on Tuesday, Wednesday, every day. You work. The government takes a cut. Is it prostitution or slavery? No matter how it's defined taxing labor is probably unconstitutional, illegal, and the 16th amendment, which codified the income tax into law, possibly was never properly ratified by a 3/4ths majority of states and the United States congress.

Do a little research. There are plenty of sources out there. Here's a good place to start:

The Law That Never Was - Bill Benson's 1985 book about income tax and the 16th amendment.

The problem is that the Supreme Court has ruled against all arguments that the income tax is void, unconstitutional or otherwise illegal on numerous occasions. Basically, like it or lump it, Americans are stuck with it. The income tax and payroll taxes are a constant and not-so-subtle reminder of who's in charge in the United States of America.

You work, the government taxes you, spends even more than they collect on things you never voted for, and sends you the bill.

The chains of which Samuel Adams spoke some 250 years ago have not set so lightly.

Stocks

For the week, stocks ended up essentially a draw. The Dow was down, the S&P, NASDAQ, and NYSE Composite up, but only marginally. The big mover was the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which slid 1.72%.

It was fitting that summer trading ended with a dull week and a down Friday. Since June 18, the NASDAQ broke even, the Dow and S&P up three to four percent. It's been a slog. With the big traders getting back to their desks on Tuesday, along with the House and Senate, there is likely to be a considerable amount of volatility as there are many plates still spinning.

The situation in the Middle East is far from being resolved, the midterms are less than two months hence, oil has spiked to hihger levels and gas prices are near the highest they've been since the beginning of June. Inflation, especially at the retail level, remains a problem, and the decision to raise or lower or stand pat on interest rates will be decided at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16. Readings on August PPI and CPI will be in focus Thursday and Friday, respectively.

It's a shortened trading week. The biggest moves will be made late unless there are deviants front-running the data.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/31/2026	3.78	3.80	3.85	3.83	3.92	3.98	4.08
08/07/2026	3.79	3.79	3.83	3.87	3.89	3.96	4.01
08/14/2026	3.79	3.80	3.81	3.86	3.88	3.95	3.98
08/21/2026	3.80	3.77	3.80	3.88	3.90	3.95	4.03
08/28/2026	3.84	3.83	3.86	3.90	3.94	4.02	4.15
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/31/2026	4.28	4.34	4.45	4.59	4.75	5.28	5.27
08/07/2026	4.19	4.25	4.35	4.49	4.65	5.20	5.19
08/14/2026	4.17	4.24	4.36	4.51	4.68	5.25	5.25
08/21/2026	4.24	4.31	4.43	4.57	4.74	5.25	5.27
08/28/2026	4.34	4.41	4.48	4.59	4.73	5.21	5.22
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24

Spreads remain elevated, with 2s-10s at +41 and full spectrum +145, but slightly down from the prior three weeks. Bessent's version of "operation twist" seems to be having at least limited success, for now. It appears to be something along the lines of a Broadway show that gets fair reviews upon opening, but fails to last, closing down after only a couple of months of performances. The actors go back to window washing and bartending jobs.

Bessent will be taking a back seat to Fed Chair Warsh as the September 15-16 FOMC meeting approaches. It's still more than a week off, but time will pass quickly with this week only four days. Plenty of which to look forward.

Credit risk is elevated and becoming troublesome around the world, especially in European and UK government issues. Doug Noland explains.

There seems to be a lot of background noise being generated out of the bond markets, but the signal is as yet unclear. Credit markets look a lot like ammo dumps waiting for a fuse to be lit. Things could get dicey soon, or else, Bessent and the slavish bond traders will see clear until the midterms. There's no general consensus other than "nobody knows for sure."

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145

Oil/Gas

With the situation in the Middle East reheating, oil moved to a higher level over the past couple of weeks. WTI crude futures closed out the week at $91.22, the price of crude rising steadily since August 26. Other than a spike in mid-July, oil prices are at their highest levels in three months.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.03 last week and $4.11 this week, rising to the highest Sunday price in three months. Peace prospects in the Middle East continue to be pursued, oil flows improving, but not sufficiently enough to lower global pricing.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.84 (+0.19)
Washington: $5.48 (+0.24)
Indiana: $3.43 (lowest) (+0.05)
Oklahoma: $3.64 (0.00)
Louisiana: $3.74 (+0.09)
Mississippi: $3.70 (+0.11)
Florida: $3.89 (+0.04)
Illinois: $4.24 (-0.13)
Pennsylvania: $4.27 (+0.06)
New York: $4.28 (+0.11)
Maryland: $4.00 (+0.09)
Michigan: $4.00 (-0.15)
Texas: $3.65 (+0.08)
Georgia: $3.86 (+0.13)

On Sunday, September 6, there are twenty-four (24) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twenty-four (24) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.35) and Alaska ($5.02), with two above $5 (California and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 12 weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.64-3.86) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging from $3.74 to $3.97. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois in the Midwest. Prices in the Northeast rose steadily this week, with all states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, averaging above $4.00. Gas prices overall were higher in nearly every state on the mainland.

Bitcoin

This week: $79,607.76
Last week: $78,862.44
2 weeks ago: $77,297.70
6 months ago: $68,099.83
One year ago: $110,083.63
Five years ago: $45,164.73

Despite the dramatic rise in crypto over the past few weeks, Bitcoin, and the rest of the nebulous "currencies", are still crap, only useful to criminals and governments (same thing) and for speculation.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 66.91; last week: 67.14

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/7: $4,401.30
Gold price 8/14: $4,432.00
Gold price 8/21: $4,661.60
Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20

Silver price 8/7: $63.80
Silver price 8/14: $64.82
Silver price 8/21: $69.01
Silver price 8/28: $67.09
Silver price 9/4: $66.82

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 8/7: $4,340.72
Gold 8/14: $4,375.15
Gold 8/21: $4,609.49
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45

Silver 8/7: $63.56
Silver 8/14: $64.68
Silver 8/21: $68.96
Silver 8/28: $66.34
Silver: 9/4: $66.20

Precious metals have taken a breather the past few weeks, but so have stocks and fixed income, so no harm, no foul. As events heat up, there's likely to be some movement in gold and silver, though directionally, there's no real signal. Could be up or down. The good news is that even if gold and silver suffer some setbacks, the rebounds will be solid through the end of the year and beyond.

Keep stacking, holding, and hoping for the best. China, India, Russia, Turkey, and Dubai are the new price setters. American buyers have shown a reluctance to accept COMEX pricing as reliable. Premia remains high on both gold and silver. The GSR and SOSMPB (below) suggest buying silver at this point.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	67.56	83.95	75.91	76.56
1 oz silver bar:	72.00	87.35	77.56	76.86
1 oz gold coin:	4579.32	4780.20	4660.00	4646.18
1 oz gold bar:	4606.91	4749.89	4648.48	4643.71

Ending five weeks of advances, the Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost ground, closing out at $76.72, a decline of $2.01 per troy ounce from the August 30 price of $78.73.

WEEKEND WRAP

Hope you're enjoying your Labor Day weekend. Back to work Tuesday. people.

At the Close, Friday, September 4, 2026:
Dow: 53,414.25, -271.85 (-0.51%)
NASDAQ: 26,506.99, -77.11 (-0.29%)
S&P 500: 7,718.60, -29.11 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 24,639.25, -80.95 (-0.33%)

For the Week:
Dow: -145.74 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ: +105.47 (+0.40%)
S&P 500: +6.84 (+0.09%)
NYSE Composite: +54.07 (+0.22%)
Dow Transports: -367.02 (-1.72%)

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