Markets Poised for Upside Friday, though Flat for the Week; Gold, Silver Rebound as China Reopens; Early Midterm Voting Underway

It's all about pattern recognition.

Thursday's market setup was very similar to Wednesday's, with stock futures in the red heading toward the opening bell, with interest rates spiking again, though not so violently as the previous session. Still, investors became unnerved. By 10:00 am ET, the yield on the 10-year note had struck 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.67%, but those high yields - same as Wednesday - gradually began to reverse.

It appeared everything was going according to plan, with dip-buyers stepping in shortly after 11:00 am on the Dow, but this time, the admission by Sam Altman's OpenAI that revenues had fallen short of target, kept the S&P and NASDAQ in the red doldrums. By the close, the Dow and NYSE Composite were positive, but the S&P, and, especially, the NASDAQ had sprung leaks, ending in the red.

As usual, a Trump tweet provided some cover, the president sending a message that he would not attack Iran again before the midterms. It didn't work as well as expected for stocks, but his messaging influenced oil futures enough to send WTI from above $93 to near $90.50. As Friday's tape begins, WTI is holding in a range just below $91/barrel.

Friday's stock futures are on the rise, even as Delta Airlines (DAL) posted a third quarter earnings miss, citing high fuel prices as the key element in the disappointing period.

The least surprising development was the recovery in gold and silver prices as China's markets reopened. Spot gold has bounced back above $4,200 and silver held above $60 overnight.

What will Friday's week-ending session bring?

Stock futures are positive, led by the NASDAQ, naturally, up 225 points an hour prior to the bell.

For the week, the Dow is up a paltry 54 points, the NASDAQ is up a mere three points, and the S&P is ahead by 43 points. Essentially, the major indices are flat, which is about in line with expectations from the investor class. Stocks don't have to steadily advance from here to November 3rd, they only have to not decline very much. After all, the S&P and NASDAQ both posted all-time highs on Tuesday, so staying within a few percentage points of record closings is likely to suit the needs of entrenched Republicans who wish to maintain their slim advantages in the House and Senate.

Wall Street is aligned with the incumbents, fearing that a Democrat takeover of either house of congress might disrupt their plans of market and dollar dominance. They are on shaky ground to say the least, but keeping stocks at nose-bleed levels should appease their voter base enough that they won't notice how much they're spending for gas, or steaks, or, well, just about everything else.

The plan is to keep stock prices high and oil and gas prices in an acceptable range. $6 gas in California doesn't seem to be a concern, since the state is deeply Democrat.

There are a few wild cards in play as the opening bell approaches. Late Thursday, Elon Musk's Starlink agreed to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band spectrum licenses, aiming to combine them with its satellite-to-cell services.

The entry of Starlink into cell phone competition send shares of T-Mobile down nearly eight percent 7.7%, while Verizon and AT&T each dropped about six percent.

Hurricane Isaias is approaching the Gulf coast. Oil rigs in the region have been shut down. Landfall for what is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane comes later today. Interest rates can only be held in their current range only so long, but the party in power only as to keep them relatively benign for another three weeks. Early voting is spreading across the nation. By next week, more than half the country will have early ballot access.

Iran and the Middle East continue to be a stubborn thorn in the administration's backside and the growing unease over AI, the burgeoning CAPEX costs, and data center buildout continue to throw shade on chip and tech sectors.

The power brokers and money dealers are spinning more than a handful of plates, but so far haven't let any fall and break. Despite their best efforts at narrative control, polls are showing Democrats taking the majority in the House, though the Senate appears to be safe for the Republicans, which is about the best they can expect. A wholesale turnover of both houses would be devastating to their cause.

At the Close, Thursday, October 8, 2026:
Dow: 51,231.64, +51.77 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 27,193.34, -345.35 (-1.25%)
S&P 500: 7,765.36, -36.41 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: 23,797.60, +95.68 (+0.40%)