CPI Prints Just Hot Enough to Provoke Thoughts of Another Rate Hike at the Fed; Market Roller Coaster May Fly off the Tracks

Like day-trading, trying to figure out why major indices move one way or the other on a given day is a fool's errand. Given the trading sequence since the midterms, all that one can assume is that the markets are volatile, or, in unofficial parlance, "jumpy."

One thing is certain. The major indices are lower than they were following Wednesday's massive influence rally, the key being "influence" as borrowed from Peak Prosperity's Dr. Chris Martenson, who uses the term as a pejorative replacement for "manipulation." The majors are also down from a month ago and recent highs.

Martenson cites the wild swing in futures on election eve, when stock futures were sliding deep into the red but suddenly reversed course in the middle of the night. Futures positive on Wednesday morning sparked the mysterious rally, only to be reversed the following day. A similar event took place upon Trump's first election, back in 2016. Memory will serve to note that futures were not just slipping when it became clear that Trump was going to win the presidential popularity contest, but collapsing. S&P futures were down multiple hundreds of points, but reversed direction in the middle of the night and opened the next day glowing green.

There are countless other examples of this somewhat inexplicable kind of behavior. It happens on a regular basis and is one damn good reason why many people don't trust Wall Street or most markets. Influence of an institutional breed directed by computer algorithms is an element of owning and trading stocks, bonds, and commodities that has become engrained in what used to be known as fair and free markets. Today's public markets are at best only partially fair and by no means free from "influence."

Getting past the conspiracy-style reading of day-to-day market movement brings up Tuesday's key economic data drop, the latest (October) CPI reading from the BLS.

Here's the rundown:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October after rising 0.6 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in October, accounting for over thirty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent in October, as the food at home index rose 0.4 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.5 percent. The index for energy increased 0.7 percent over the month following a 5.2-percent increase in September.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in September and August. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and education. Conversely, the index for used cars and trucks and the index for communication were among the small number of major indexes that decreased in October.

That little tidbit of influence sent stock futures crashing lower because the data exceeded expert expectations, not by much, but enough to signal that the Fed is going to hike the federal funds target rate at least another 25 basis points (and maybe 50) at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, and that, friends, is not at all good for the beloved stock market.

So, draw a line through Monday's snappy two-percent-plus rally and keep dreaming about Democrats fixing anything, including the national debt, Epstein files (according to present Republican - soon to depart - leader Johnson, a national security issue), broad-based corruption, or, oh yeah, inflation (shorthand for loss of purchasing power, i.e. debased currency).

Nothing much will change under a Democrat congress other than different people will be occupying the seats. The war in Ukraine will continue. The government will continue to overspend to the tune of $2 trillion annual deficits as far as the eye can see. Basic necessities - food, energy, shelter - will continue to cost more than yesterday, last week, last month, etc. It's a uniparty, and regular Americans have not been invited.

As for stocks, enjoy the roller coaster, but keep in mind that an economy that benefits the top 10% the most will eventually fall under the weight of the bottom 90% unable to afford a house, gas in the auto, nutritious food and just about anything else.

If the past 26 years has taught people anything at all, it's that the government doesn't actually care about most of the people it is supposed to be serving. Government is owned by special interests who fund their campaigns and excesses.

Bad behavior by government uppity-ups almost never brings bounty to the working class. That's just the way it is.

At the Close, Monday, November 9, 2026:
Dow: 52,389.75, +1,104.02 (+2.15%)
NASDAQ: 25,253.14, +673.74 (+2.74%)
S&P 500: 7,549.94, +173.08 (+2.35%)
NYSE Composite: 24,472.62, +522.25 (+2.18%)