Showing posts with label England. Show all posts
Showing posts with label England. Show all posts

Monday, December 16, 2019

WEEKEND WRAP: Trump Charged, Johnson Elected, Fed Throws Money to the Wind

What a week!

Not only was President Trump brought up on impeachment charges of abuse of power and obstruction of congress (whatever that is) by Jerry Nadler's gutless judiciary committee, it came on the heels of a crushing conservative victory for Boris Johnson in England. And that came just after the Federal Reserve's FOMC decided to keep the federal funds interest rate right where it was, at 1.50-1.75%.

All of this happened on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. There was little time, in between, for the United States and China to announce, denounce, defer, define, defend, and eventually demystify the outlines of some vague phase one trade deal, which still hasn't happened, but is supposed to, any time, any day now.

So there it was, except for a few details that may have slipped over the transom or under the proverbial rug, like the Federal Reserve supplying $500 billion in liquidity to REPO markets to handle "the turn" from December 31, 2019 to January 1, 2020.

That little nugget came and went. Everybody was too much involved over impeachment and Boris and the trade deal to notice. Such an amount of money just to get from 2019 to 2020? It sounded absurd, spending half a trillion dollars to change the calendar. Remember, there was $700 billion in TARP, back in 2009, and that supposedly rescued the entire global financial system. This amount is more than two thirds of that.

In a related story, Lee Adler of The Wall Street Examiner purports that the Federal Reserve has bought up 90% of the government's issuance of treasury bills, notes, and bonds since September 16, effectively monetizing the debt.

So, this $500 billion of liquidity from the benevolent Fed, is it a precursor of more debt monetization, or simply a safeguard against some hedge fund or larger institution crashing as one year turns to the next? Its hard to say. Like recessions, the world will likely have to wait until after the fact to find out.

On a weekly basis, the Dow has gained in seven of the last 10 weeks. The S&P was up nine of the last 10, the NASDAQ moved higher nine of the last 11, and the Composite Index finished higher nine out of the last 10 and this week closed at an all-time high, proving, once again, that it's folly to fight the Fed.

As a footnote to the coming week, the full house is expected to vote on articles of impeachment on Wednesday.

At the Close, Friday, December 13, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,135.38, +3.28 (+0.01%)
NASDAQ: 8,734.88, +17.56 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 3,168.80, +0.23 (+0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 13,697.34, -0.06 (-0.00%)

For the Week:
Dow: +120.32 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: +78.35 (+0.91%)
S&P 500: +22.89 (+0.73%)
NYSE Composite: +109.05 (+0.80%)

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Stocks Flat; Britain Should Leave The EU ASAP

Markets - whatever is left of them - seemed to be running on fumes Monday, as no Trump tweets nor economic news were sufficient to move stocks in general either way.

This kind of quiet may be just what investors are seeking: less volatility, less media madness, a more sanguine environment and some degree of security and safety. With all the talk of recession, the past few months have spooked some of the more ardent longs, but the market is still not conducive to short trades in any form.

One could conclude from recent action that stocks will hold their ground and move to new highs, as has been the case throughout the run from 2009 (buy the dip philosophy), and with another 1/4 point rate cut from the Fed a sure thing next week, that is the likely trading strategy for the day-trader and short-termer. Long term investors should be seeking value or growth, best, a combination of the two. With interest rates so low, dividend-yielding stocks with long track records are the safest and surest, plus, many will survive well under difficult conditions, should a recession actually arrive.

Central banks still have control of markets, a condition that may persist for quite a long time. It should serve memory well to reconsider the aftermath of the 2008 crash, wherein central banks coordinated to save everything, even unworthy companies, from default.

This might be a prime time to move from passive to active investing, with individual stocks preferred over ETFs or mutuals. Expect some noisy ups and downs over the next few months, though the next major event is Brexit, with a hard-line, no-deal escape from the EU by Great Britain set for October 31 by Boris Johnson, the most recent Prime Minister of the country.

It's been more than three years since jolly ole' England voted to leave the EU. Parliamentarians and stubborn bureaucrats have delayed the wishes of the people for too long and the wait may soon be over. Anything short of England removing itself from the EU - without onerous conditions - will be very bad for markets. The hyperbole of the media and those on the "remain" side of the issue have played the hysterics card for all it's worth.

Time is up. Populism should prevail in England and the result of leaving the EU, while dramatic, does not have to be traumatic.

At the Close, Monday, September 9, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,835.51, +38.05 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 8,087.44, -15.64 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,978.43, -0.28 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 12,960.72, +27.34 (+0.21%)

Sunday, November 18, 2018

Weekend Wrap: Myopic Markets Ignoring Broader, Global Issues

Extending declines from last Friday, stocks took a severe nose-dive on Monday and the carnage continued through to Wednesday, with the first three days of the week wiping out most, if not all market gains from earlier in the month.

The Dow Industrials were hit hardest. Even with winning sessions on Thursday and Friday to close out the week, the blue chips ended with one of the more serious declines of the year, a solid 2.22% rip. Though tech stocks were blamed for most of the drop, the price declines in oil and most of the other components contributed to send Dow stocks lower, as the price of WTI crude hit a year-old bottom on Wednesday before recovering the final two days of the trading week.

Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM), the two energy components in the Dow 30, took it on the chin early in the week, but Chevron actually finished the week about where it started and ExxonMobil ended the week down just two points, or, about 2.5%.

Apple (AAPL) was a big driver to the downside, down nearly five percent at week's end, though it was off about nine percent at the close on Wednesday. The early part of the week saw selling contributions from most of the component stocks and slight recoveries in the latter stages.

Once again, volatility was notable and seems not to be slacking. The widely-watched VIX popped well over 20 as the week progressed, but settled back in the high teems, closing at 18.14 on Friday. That is still an elevated level over the complacency of the past few years, which saw the VIX hanging solidly in the 10-13 range for extended periods.

On the international front, the usual knee-jerking on every utterance, press release, or rumor surrounding a trade deal-or-no-deal between the US and China continued. It's being set up as a foil to be used by the financial press to explain every up-and-down in markets, when in fact, trade with China is much less an issue than say, the Fed's relentless interest rate increases or the possibility of a looming Eurozone-wide recession.

Industrial production in Europe was anemic in the third quarter, with increases of 0.3, 1.1, and 0.9 for July, August and September. As compared to the same quarter in the prior year, the average of 0.77 is dwarfed by 2017's average of four percent. Such a huge decline cannot be taken lightly, though it is rarely - if ever - mentioned in US financial coverage. Contributing to the growing concerns in Europe is the recent Brexit proposal put up by Prime Minister Theresa May's administration. The deal was met with considerable resistance in the House of Commons and prompted some high-level resignations from May's cabinet. Chances of a deal being worked out for an orderly exit from the European Union are being viewed as iffy at best.

While Europe will live or die largely by its own restrictive and stifling internal policies, China and the United States should continue to roll right along, regardless of whether a deal is struck between the two countries. The next meeting between President Trump and china's president, Xi Jinping, is upcoming soon. The two leaders are reportedly planning to discuss trade as a side event at the next G20 meeting in Buenos Aires on November 30, but the two largest national economies in the world aren't about to be sidetracked by tariffs. China's growth is already slowing, but they have broad international initiatives beyond the United States. Ditto for the US, as President Trump extricates the country from one-sided trade deals that were the result of globalization efforts from previous administrations.

Putting the week into perspective, US equity markets are still generally myopic, ignorant of issues elsewhere in the world, though that may be changing. Many US companies are dynamic and have global footprints, so that, if other parts of the planet are suffering, the US, while somewhat insulated, is not completely immune. US expansion has been long, though not deep, but the housing market has peaked and is slowing and unemployment cannot stay at its current sweet spot indefinitely. Tech appears the weakest link presently, though its weakness is not pronounced. Stocks continue to vacillate, but are closer to recent lows than highs.

Recent trends have seen selling into rallies and quick rises off obvious inflection points. Even with what are still somewhat easy credit conditions and stock buybacks at elevated levels, stocks are failing to reach higher, the condition looking more like exhaustion rather than capitulation. Such a condition may take more than a few weeks or months to resolve. In the meantime, traders aren't seriously committed to positions.

Sentiment remains neutral with a slight downside bias.

Dow Jones Industrial Average November Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
11/1/18 25,380.74 +264.98 +264.98
11/2/18 25,270.83 -109.91 +155.07
11/5/18 25,461.70 +190.87 +345.94
11/6/18 25,635.01 +173.31 +519.25
11/7/18 26,180.30 +545.29 +1064.54
11/8/18 26,191.22 +10.92 +1075.46
11/9/18 25,989.30 -201.92 +873.54
11/12/18 25,387.18 -602.12 +271.42
11/13/18 25,286.49 -100.69 +170.27
11/14/18 25,080.50 -205.99 -35.72
11/15/18 25,289.27 +208.77 +173.05
11/16/18 25,413.22 +123.95 +297.00

At the Close, Friday, November 16, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,413.22, +123.95 (+0.49%)
NASDAQ: 7,247.87, -11.16 (-0.15%)
S&P 500: 2,736.27, +6.07 (+0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 12,400.28, +38.76 (+0.31%)

For the Week:
Dow: -576.08 (-2.22%)
NASDAQ: -159.03 (-2.15%)
S&P 500: -44.74 (-1.61%)
NYSE Composite: -137.25 (-1.09%)

Friday, November 16, 2018

Dip-Buyers Send Stocks Off Fresh Lows; Cory Booker, Poster Boy For Peak Stupidity

As stocks touched down on some key support levels, investors took the initiative to load up on what they perceived as undervalued shares, sending stocks off morning lows to afternoon highs, with NASDAQ dumb money leading the charge higher.

The major indices were under pressure early in the session, dropping to levels at which the year began, wiping out nearly all of the gains since last December. Call it coincidence or a propensity for chart-watching dip-buying, but there was no other catalyst to Thursday's mini-rally other than valuations.

On the downside, Britain seems to be completely flummoxed by ongoing Brexit negotiations, with resignations in Prime Minister Theresa May's cabinet over the compromise deal presented to the House of Commons this week. Rumors of a no confidence vote are circulating as the Brexit issue continues to derail any progress England can make in extricating itself from the European Union. The referendum, passed in early 2016, called for an exit by March of 2019, though that date now appears less certain. The issues are complex and threaten to tear the country apart.

In a completely unrelated note, America has finally achieved PEAK STUPIDITY, and its poster boy is the senator from New Jersey, Cory Booker.

Booker's proposal for "Baby Bonds" as a way to shrink the wealth gap is about as far left an approach as could be considered... without laughing.

Booker's idea is to give every newborn $1000 at birth and up to another $2000 every year thereafter - based on the parents' income, of course - until that child reaches the age of 18, or, in other words, just in time to take out a government-funded student loan, or, pay for maybe a few years of college themselves.

It's just this kind of insanity that American citizens have to endure from its government that causes angst, apathy, or confrontation between liberals and conservatives. The US has had a massive welfare program in place - that rewards having more children with higher benefits - for more than 50 years, and it's done nothing to reduce poverty or improve living conditions for chronically poor people.

With people like Booker being elected and re-elected to high government positions of power, is there any wonder why the United States are so disunited?

Despite the higher close on Thursday, investors should not be enthusiastic about an extension to the short-term rally which was likely the result more of short-covering and corporate buybacks than the actual taking of new positions in stocks. Sentiment remains murky with a bias to the downside.

Dow Jones Industrial Average November Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
11/1/18 25,380.74 +264.98 +264.98
11/2/18 25,270.83 -109.91 +155.07
11/5/18 25,461.70 +190.87 +345.94
11/6/18 25,635.01 +173.31 +519.25
11/7/18 26,180.30 +545.29 +1064.54
11/8/18 26,191.22 +10.92 +1075.46
11/9/18 25,989.30 -201.92 +873.54
11/12/18 25,387.18 -602.12 +271.42
11/13/18 25,286.49 -100.69 +170.27
11/14/18 25,080.50 -205.99 -35.72
11/15/18 25,289.27 +208.77 +173.05

At the Close, Thursday, November 15, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,289.27, +208.77 (+0.83%)
NASDAQ: 7,259.03, +122.64 (+1.72%)
S&P 500: 2,730.20, +28.62 (+1.06%)
NYSE Composite: 12,361.52, +86.03 (+0.70%)

Monday, June 20, 2016

Markets Get Boost On Brexit Opposition; Fake Move Fades Throughout Trading Session

When equity prices jump suddenly at the opening bell by one percent or more - as they did today in New York - the only ones who benefit are those already in the market, with positions in the "selected" stocks.

Average investors have no opportunity to partake in the market's sudden generosity. Hedgers and speculators who played properly prior to the open are the big winners. Wealth is not created in any way, shape, or form, other than in a paper manner. It's a trade and soon enough it vanishes.

Stocks, for whatever they're worth (caveat emptor), lost half of their gains over the course of the day. The NASDAQ was up 88 points and closed up 36 and change. The S&P was up 29 points - hitting the magic 2100 spot, again - before falling throughout the day to close up a mere 12 points.

Blue chips fared no better. The Dow was up a whopping 271 points by 10:00 am EDT, but ended the day disappointing to all but the HFTs, who were no doubt front-running every single trade (it's rumored that there were a few hundred bettors in the game), ahead by only 129.

Most of the euphoria at the open was due to a media frenzy over the prospect of England remaining in the European Union. Polls have been tight, but the mainstream media continues to portray Thursday's upcoming vote as a referendum on patriotism for Brits. Vote to stay in the EU, you're a good citizen; vote to leave, or Brexit, you may just be a terrorist sympathizer.

Of course, the media spin is just that, all noise and no substance. Not only would leaving the EU be better for most working Britons, it would also send a powerful message to the status quo that their form of governing is no longer working, and must go. With so many government jobs on the line, the mainstream is pushing hard for a "stay" vote.

Last laugh of the day went to silver holders. Even the best efforts of the central bank cabal could not keep gold's little brother down, closing at 17.52 per troy ounce.

On that note, Hugo Slainas Price proposes a Silver Ruble for Russia. Interesting reading for anyone considering honest money.

Stormy Monday?
S&P 500: 2,083.25, +12.03 (0.58%)
Dow: 17,804.87, +129.71 (0.73%)
NASDAQ: 4,837.21, +36.88 (0.77%)

Crude Oil 49.17 +2.48% Gold 1,292.70 -0.16% EUR/USD 1.1307 -0.11% 10-Yr Bond 1.67 +3.21% Corn 422.75 -3.43% Copper 2.09 +1.80% Silver 17.52 +0.63% Natural Gas 2.97 +2.67% Russell 2000 1,158.05 +1.17% VIX 18.20 -6.23% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4685 +1.52% USD/JPY 103.8550 -0.84%