Wall Street to Washington, the Clown Show Continues

OK, it's finally gotten officially stupid to invest any money at all in stocks, though judging by the massive outflows from stock-related mutual funds to bond funds, it seems that may be preaching to the choir as far as retail investors are concerned.

Today saw more ridiculous posturing and pontification by various US public office-holders, first by House Speaker John Boehner (who seems to relish in the publicity and his new-found super-power, capable of moving stock indices with a single phrase) who, after meeting with the president's chief negotiator - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner - said that there had been no substantive progress on the fiscal cliff issues in two weeks (no kidding!) and that the president needs to put his cards on the table.

Apparently, Geithner is stone-walling for Obama, insisting on allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire on the wealthiest taxpayers - those earning over $250,000 - while allowing them to remain in place for everyone else, but Boehner is likely still insisting on concrete spending cuts. Both have good ideas, though the probability of a realistic compromise appears to be still a ways off.

So, Boehner steps to the microphone a few minutes after 11:30 am ET, says a few words and the Dow loses 50 points in about a minute. A little while later, Senate Leader Harry Reid takes his turn and stocks recover a bit. Maybe Harry has a gentler touch? But stocks went up even more when NY Senator Chuck (I represent Israel) Schumer took to the podium and said a deal was almost a certainty by Christmas, once again, overstating the obvious. Senator Schumer probably had an options straddle working, needed a few extra points on the SPY and he got them.

Nancy Pelosi threatened to speak nearing the close, but held off until after the final bell. Apparently, Mrs. Pelosi plays the futures markets. It's all so absurd, the great Saul Bellow could not have penned a more abstract, obtuse script.

Other than the fiscal cliff bad theater, existing home sales in October were reported to have increased by 5.2% percent over the previous month, third quarter GDP was revised upward from 2.0% to 2.7%, which the market had expected, though most of the gains came from government spending, inventory additions and hedonic adjustments.

Retail Sales for November were reported by a number of chain stores, showing an overall gain of 1.7%, well below the happy forecast of a 4-5% jump. Naturally, Hurricane Sandy was blamed for much of the shortfall, though actual sales declines at Kohl's (down 5.6%), Macy's and Nordstom's were more likely due to a combination of competition, poor marketing and overall sluggish demand by consumers, who can only buy so many 42-inch flat screens, iPods and clothes on limited budgets.

Also, this graphic caught some attention. It shows how former Goldman Sachs executives are now the central bankers of most of Europe. No wonder they're doing so well over there.

Gold was up sharply, as was oil and silver, a day after being belted down by unseen forces. Silver, in particular, is at a two-month high, and looks like its about to break out, though that's been said and seen before, with no follow-through, thanks to the suppressive work constantly being done at JP Morgan.

The big tent will open for the circus promptly at 9:30 am ET tomorrow.

Dow 13,021.82, +36.71 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 3,012.03, +20.25 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,415.95, +6.02 (0.43%)
NYSE Composite, 8,256.07, +48.71 (0.59%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,758,355,875.00
NYSE Volume 3,337,720,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3963-1531
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 233-30
WTI crude oil: 88.07, +1.58
Gold: 1,727.20, +10.70
Silver: 34.35, +0.664

My Open Letter to Senator Charles Schumer

I've been trying (in vain) to find the bill which helped me in 1983-84 hire a young woman as an advertising sales executive for what was then my fledgling newspaper, Downtown Magazine.

I was able to determine that it must have been part of the 1983 Emergency Employment Act, but little else, so, upon hearing that Senator Schumer and others were going to propose another "tax credit" type bill in coming days, I decided to query New York's senior Senator. The text of my message appears below:

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Dear Senator Schumer,

Please have somebody on your staff research the 1983 Emergency Employment Act. I ask that you do this because I believe I was an employer who received great benefit from the implementation of one of the programs.

I had started up a newspaper in Rochester, NY in 1982 and it was just beginning to turn a small profit in '83. I don't recall the specific agency, but, if my memory serves correct, the deal was that if I hired an unemployed person - and I did - the government (it may have been NY State or the US) agreed to pay half of the wages for a period of time - I believe it was six months.

This was a great program and allowed me to hire a young woman to sell advertising for my newspaper. She and I both benefitted. She got a job and I got half of my money back over the first six months of her employment.

It was a pretty nice, simple arrangement. All I had to do was pay her on time, submit proof of payment (and all taxes and withholding was paid by me) once a month, and the agency cut me a check for half of her gross pay.

Now, I believe that this kind of program would get people back to work in a hurry, especially if targeted at small businesses with less than 10 employees, or some other similar threshold. It worked for me, and, incidentally, the woman worked for me for a few more years after that initial six months, so the job was not "make work," but real, productive employment.

It is my firm conviction that the federal government has not done enough for small business during this financial downturn, and that a jobs bill that actually puts money into the hands of employers, rather than shadowy tax breaks or credits, offers the true path to recovery.

My belief is that small businesses, which create 75-90% of all jobs in this country, can do what Wall Street, the Fed, Treasury and congress have been unable to do, but, we need some help and some time in which to do so.

I trust that you and your staff will give this matter serious consideration. I am going to publish this entire communication on my blog,
http://moneydaily.blogspot.com

so, I expect a positive response. Please, stop the pandering and posturing and propose a jobs bill that works from the bottom up.

Thank you,

Rick Gagliano
Publisher, Downtown Magazine (dtmagazine.com)
Money Daily