Today's headline offers a provocative suggestion, though the simple answer to the question is a flat-out "NO," simply because the overtly political Federal Reserve will not - under an circumstances - raise interest rates in September.
That is almost so widely accepted within the financial community as to make it nearly a fact, a fait accompli, a gospel truth.
There are any number of reasons why the FOMC will not raise the federal funds rate even one basis point at their upcoming meeting on September 20 and 21, not the least of which is the assumption that such a rash move would derail the presidential bid by the status quo candidate, the fair-haired-soon-to-be-liar-in-chief, Hillary Clinton.
Naturally, that's a one-sided argument which has nothing to do with economics, but the Fed has other issues behind their upcoming decision to stand pat on rates for the foreseeable future.
Among these issues are the ongoing candidacy of Mr. Donald J. Trump, who is seen as anathema to anything and everything establishment, and that means the Fed itself. A Trump victory in November would almost certainly foment much in the way of chaos, including a pre-emptive attack from the Fed itself, sensing an almost perfect opening to raise rates and crash the market, maybe even do away with the entire post-Bretton Woods arrangement via a wholesale financial collapse.
That might be fun, but the projections fro the US economy going forward are not, have not been for some time and will not be. That's the main reason the Fed is stuck at the near-zero bound, because not only the US economy, but that of almost all developed nations are not growing. Rather, they are growling with intense citizen upset, declining labor utilization rates and a demographic wall that current policies can and will never scale.
The Fed is boxed in, as are all central banks. They can't do anything except buy up more overpriced assets even though that effort has failed to produce their highly-anticipated inflation and associated growth. One might say that all the central bank coddling of the system has produced is a massive over-supply of everything and a deflationary vortex that challenges their Keynesian orthodoxy.
The Fed - unless Hillary Clinton is elected president, and even that's no clincher - is toast.
Thursday's Results:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,419.30, +18.42 (0.10)
NASDAQ
5,227.21, 13.99 (0.27%)
S&P 500
2,170.86, -0.09 (0.00%)
^NYA
NYSE Composite
10,771.91, +7.16 (0.07%)
Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Monday, August 8, 2016
Stocks Flat As Dog Days Drag
Considering the huge push Hillary Clinton got from the pollsters and media over the past week, it's a wonder the stock market wasn't off to the races come Monday morning.
Instead, stocks were marginally higher at the opening bell, but spent most of the session in the red. Since stocks are trading at or near all-time highs on the major averages, perhaps this wait-and-see action was the best approach.
Volatility was very low, with stocks trading in very tight ranges. The outlier was oil, as WTI crude ramped up more than a dollar, to $42.87, though this mini-bounce is not likely to be taken seriously or signal another run-up to $50 per barrel or higher. Oil's global glut is real and serious. Only a highly structured and skeptical futures market is keeping crude from collapsing to below $30 per barrel. For now, drivers are getting the benefit of lower gas prices, a condition which used to be associated with a burgeoning economy.
Oddly enough, because of excess debt in the system, stagnation with low inflation is about the best this economy can do. For the most part, individuals are doing better than they have the past few years, but high taxes and the rising cost of healthcare have put the brakes on personal spending.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,529.29, -14.24 (-0.08%)
NASDAQ
5,213.14, -7.98 (-0.15%)
S&P 500
2,180.89, -1.98 (-0.09%)
NYSE Composite
10,788.01, 5.14 (0.05%)
Instead, stocks were marginally higher at the opening bell, but spent most of the session in the red. Since stocks are trading at or near all-time highs on the major averages, perhaps this wait-and-see action was the best approach.
Volatility was very low, with stocks trading in very tight ranges. The outlier was oil, as WTI crude ramped up more than a dollar, to $42.87, though this mini-bounce is not likely to be taken seriously or signal another run-up to $50 per barrel or higher. Oil's global glut is real and serious. Only a highly structured and skeptical futures market is keeping crude from collapsing to below $30 per barrel. For now, drivers are getting the benefit of lower gas prices, a condition which used to be associated with a burgeoning economy.
Oddly enough, because of excess debt in the system, stagnation with low inflation is about the best this economy can do. For the most part, individuals are doing better than they have the past few years, but high taxes and the rising cost of healthcare have put the brakes on personal spending.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,529.29, -14.24 (-0.08%)
NASDAQ
5,213.14, -7.98 (-0.15%)
S&P 500
2,180.89, -1.98 (-0.09%)
NYSE Composite
10,788.01, 5.14 (0.05%)
Friday, August 5, 2016
Stocks Gallop Ahead On July Jobs Boost
While the consensus estimate was for July Non-Farm Payrolls to show a gain of 160,000, the BLS (aka Bureau of Lies and Salaciousness) blew away the number, showing the US economy grew by 255,000 jobs in the usually dolorous month of July. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%.
That number sent the dollar screeching higher and stocks rocketing back toward or beyond (S&P 500) all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up more than one percent, along with the NASDAQ, no doubt buoyed by the sensational jobs report and the trouncing Hillary Clinton was giving to Donald Trump in the majority of the latest polls. The elite status quo has their agenda in hand; Wall Street obviously a willing partner.
All major averages finished with modest gains for the week (with the exception of the NYSE Composite), despite the idea that a better economy - one that, say, produces 250,000+ jobs per month - might give the Federal Reserve cause to raise rates. For now, however, good news is good news.
On The Day:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,543.53, +191.48 (1.04%)
NASDAQ
5,221.12, +54.87 (1.06%)
S&P 500
2,182.87, +18.62 (0.86%)
NYSE Composite
10,781.78, +75.74 (+0.71%)
For the Week:
Dow: +111.29, (+0.60%)
S&P 500: +9.27 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: +58.99 (+1.14%)
NYA: -2.65 (-0.02)
That number sent the dollar screeching higher and stocks rocketing back toward or beyond (S&P 500) all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up more than one percent, along with the NASDAQ, no doubt buoyed by the sensational jobs report and the trouncing Hillary Clinton was giving to Donald Trump in the majority of the latest polls. The elite status quo has their agenda in hand; Wall Street obviously a willing partner.
All major averages finished with modest gains for the week (with the exception of the NYSE Composite), despite the idea that a better economy - one that, say, produces 250,000+ jobs per month - might give the Federal Reserve cause to raise rates. For now, however, good news is good news.
On The Day:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,543.53, +191.48 (1.04%)
NASDAQ
5,221.12, +54.87 (1.06%)
S&P 500
2,182.87, +18.62 (0.86%)
NYSE Composite
10,781.78, +75.74 (+0.71%)
For the Week:
Dow: +111.29, (+0.60%)
S&P 500: +9.27 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: +58.99 (+1.14%)
NYA: -2.65 (-0.02)
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
Dow Ends 7-Day Losing Streak, But Who's Watching The Transports And NYSE Composite?
Markets can seem exuberant, sometimes, even over-exuberant, as has lately been the case, without reason.
The current environment is one of those times by which market movements cannot be rationally explained, or as the Maestro himself - former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan - so aptly put it, the markets seem to be suffering from irrational exuberance.
This needs to be pointed out in the current context of manipulation and high-stakes politics between the Nah! Brexit vote and the very real threat that Donald Trump might somehow wrangle himself into the Oval Office come November... to the absolute terror of the elite status quo, including everyone from Warren Buffet to Mark Cuban to Janet Yellen and just about every member of congress and Wall Street hedge fund slickster.
Money Daily has recently been pointing out that the any positive developments by Mr. Trump are and have been met with scurrying, rat-like selling of shares on the equity markets by those with very thin, lizard-like skins, probably your average congressional insider and self-important hedge fund managers.
On the other side of the coin, there's the relentless marauding of the Fed, the central bank which is prohibited from buying or selling of equities (unlike the Bank of Japan, which is now a top 10 holder of 90% of the stocks listed on the NIKKEI 225), but which has ample resources by which to funnel money into stocks via proxies such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Merrill Lynch, the investment arm of Bank of America, or even the Bank of Japan, which, having run out of luck in the Nikkei, is probably more than willing to buy US stocks.
It's a safe bet that the Fed and their cronies halted and reversed the post-Brexit decline, sending the Dow and S&P 500 to all-time highs via options trading and positions on the VIX, the volatility index, widely parlayed by those in the hedging business.
In fact, days before the Brexit vote, heads of the Swiss, Canadian, US and Japanese central banks were already in collusion to overcome any nasty "turbulence" in the markets, as openly reported by none other than Bloomberg.
So, it shouldn't come as any stretch of the imagination that the same types who distort presidential polls and have the mainstream media wrapped around their little fingers should also keep stocks artificially high as long as it appears that Hillary Clinton will be elected president come November 8.
Once stocks got to extreme levels, a bell went off in the heads of the big traders, telling them to take profits, resulting in a seven-day sell-off (otherwise known as consolidation), culminating in Tuesday's near-100-point decline on the Dow.
Wednesday, the Dow just barely hung on for a small gain, as did the other indices, however, the recent highs achieved by the Dow can be seen as absolute phonies, when referenced to the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), which sold-off and rebounded like other indexes post-Brexit, but did not attain new all-time highs (for the record, neither did the NASDAQ, nor the NYSE Composite, the broadest index of US stocks).
The Transports had a good run of it, topping out at 8048.09, but were 100 points shy of the all-time record, set back in April, 2015, at 8149.00.
The same is true on the NYSE Composite (NYA), which topped out recently at 10815.43, a far cry from May 2015, when the index stood proudly at 11254.87.
Taking away from this divergence in major markets is the idea that central banks and their friends can only influence so much. They often (make that, ALWAYS) leave bits and pieces of evidence of foul play scattered about. 100 or so points on the Transportation Average and over 400 points on the Composite shows just how sloppy and misguided their adventures into manipulation of not just stocks, but perceptions, have become.
Everybody watches the Dow and S&P. The transports and composite indices, not so much, or so they believe.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,355.00, +41.23 (0.23%)
NASDAQ
5,159.74, +22.00 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,163.79, +6.76 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite
10,695.14, +34.01 (0.32%)
The current environment is one of those times by which market movements cannot be rationally explained, or as the Maestro himself - former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan - so aptly put it, the markets seem to be suffering from irrational exuberance.
This needs to be pointed out in the current context of manipulation and high-stakes politics between the Nah! Brexit vote and the very real threat that Donald Trump might somehow wrangle himself into the Oval Office come November... to the absolute terror of the elite status quo, including everyone from Warren Buffet to Mark Cuban to Janet Yellen and just about every member of congress and Wall Street hedge fund slickster.
Money Daily has recently been pointing out that the any positive developments by Mr. Trump are and have been met with scurrying, rat-like selling of shares on the equity markets by those with very thin, lizard-like skins, probably your average congressional insider and self-important hedge fund managers.
On the other side of the coin, there's the relentless marauding of the Fed, the central bank which is prohibited from buying or selling of equities (unlike the Bank of Japan, which is now a top 10 holder of 90% of the stocks listed on the NIKKEI 225), but which has ample resources by which to funnel money into stocks via proxies such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Merrill Lynch, the investment arm of Bank of America, or even the Bank of Japan, which, having run out of luck in the Nikkei, is probably more than willing to buy US stocks.
It's a safe bet that the Fed and their cronies halted and reversed the post-Brexit decline, sending the Dow and S&P 500 to all-time highs via options trading and positions on the VIX, the volatility index, widely parlayed by those in the hedging business.
In fact, days before the Brexit vote, heads of the Swiss, Canadian, US and Japanese central banks were already in collusion to overcome any nasty "turbulence" in the markets, as openly reported by none other than Bloomberg.
So, it shouldn't come as any stretch of the imagination that the same types who distort presidential polls and have the mainstream media wrapped around their little fingers should also keep stocks artificially high as long as it appears that Hillary Clinton will be elected president come November 8.
Once stocks got to extreme levels, a bell went off in the heads of the big traders, telling them to take profits, resulting in a seven-day sell-off (otherwise known as consolidation), culminating in Tuesday's near-100-point decline on the Dow.
Wednesday, the Dow just barely hung on for a small gain, as did the other indices, however, the recent highs achieved by the Dow can be seen as absolute phonies, when referenced to the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), which sold-off and rebounded like other indexes post-Brexit, but did not attain new all-time highs (for the record, neither did the NASDAQ, nor the NYSE Composite, the broadest index of US stocks).
The Transports had a good run of it, topping out at 8048.09, but were 100 points shy of the all-time record, set back in April, 2015, at 8149.00.
The same is true on the NYSE Composite (NYA), which topped out recently at 10815.43, a far cry from May 2015, when the index stood proudly at 11254.87.
Taking away from this divergence in major markets is the idea that central banks and their friends can only influence so much. They often (make that, ALWAYS) leave bits and pieces of evidence of foul play scattered about. 100 or so points on the Transportation Average and over 400 points on the Composite shows just how sloppy and misguided their adventures into manipulation of not just stocks, but perceptions, have become.
Everybody watches the Dow and S&P. The transports and composite indices, not so much, or so they believe.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,355.00, +41.23 (0.23%)
NASDAQ
5,159.74, +22.00 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,163.79, +6.76 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite
10,695.14, +34.01 (0.32%)
Thursday, July 28, 2016
As Hope For Hillary Fades, So Will Prices of Stocks
Another listless day was had on the equity exchanges, as stocks slipped in early (rigged) trading, then magically gained ground all day, with the Dow ending in the red while the NASDAQ and S&P posted incremental gains.
Oil continued to slip further away from recent, month-ago highs of $50 per barrel, closing in NY just above $41/barrel, roughly a 20% decline in a very short time. Drivers should begin to see the effects at the gas pump, as soon as higher-priced inventories are extinguished. Expect gas prices to fall back to levels seen in early Spring. Many areas in the Midwest and South are already seeing prices below $2.00 per gallon, a level seen as a panacea for economy.
The highest prices in the country are undeniably in the West, especially California, where high taxes and regulations push the price of fuel far beyond its production and profit price. Once again, we have our beneficent government to thank for wasting our money.
Winding down tonight is the Democratic National Convention, where Hillary Clinton will accept her party's nomination for president of the United States, along with running mate Tim Kaine, whose speech on Wednesday night is being criticized as being dull and boring.
More and more, it appears that the national mood is not pleasant, a boon to the campaign of Republican Donald Trump, who advocates for change.
Expect more slippage in stock prices as the elite begins to realize that their days in power may truly be numbered. Clinton is a miserable candidate, and, while Trump is no darling of the right, he is at least forthright and hopeful.
Clinton isn't getting any bump in the polls through the convention, which is usually the case. That's a bad omen for the status quo and the left.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,456.35, -15.82 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ
5,154.98, +15.17 (0.30%)
S&P 500
2,170.06, +3.48 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite
10,744.16, +4.40 (0.04%)
Oil continued to slip further away from recent, month-ago highs of $50 per barrel, closing in NY just above $41/barrel, roughly a 20% decline in a very short time. Drivers should begin to see the effects at the gas pump, as soon as higher-priced inventories are extinguished. Expect gas prices to fall back to levels seen in early Spring. Many areas in the Midwest and South are already seeing prices below $2.00 per gallon, a level seen as a panacea for economy.
The highest prices in the country are undeniably in the West, especially California, where high taxes and regulations push the price of fuel far beyond its production and profit price. Once again, we have our beneficent government to thank for wasting our money.
Winding down tonight is the Democratic National Convention, where Hillary Clinton will accept her party's nomination for president of the United States, along with running mate Tim Kaine, whose speech on Wednesday night is being criticized as being dull and boring.
More and more, it appears that the national mood is not pleasant, a boon to the campaign of Republican Donald Trump, who advocates for change.
Expect more slippage in stock prices as the elite begins to realize that their days in power may truly be numbered. Clinton is a miserable candidate, and, while Trump is no darling of the right, he is at least forthright and hopeful.
Clinton isn't getting any bump in the polls through the convention, which is usually the case. That's a bad omen for the status quo and the left.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,456.35, -15.82 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ
5,154.98, +15.17 (0.30%)
S&P 500
2,170.06, +3.48 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite
10,744.16, +4.40 (0.04%)
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
All Quiet On The FOMC Front; Meanwhile, Rancor At The DNC
With the chance of a rate hike hovering between absolutely not and no chance at the two-day July meeting (today and Wednesday) stocks took something of a breather, finishing in mixed fashion and anticipating no rate movement from the FOMC, which will release its policy decision at 2:00 pm EDT tomorrow.
There was a sudden drop in equities across the board early in the day on Tuesday, sending the major indices into negative territory, a place they spent most of the remainder of the session.
Oil continued its relentless decline off ridiculously high levels reached last month. While today's drop was less than one percent, the price of WTI crude for September 2016 delivery fell to a three-month low as gasoline demand in the US and most other developed nations remains stubbornly low. The last traded price was in the $42.82 per barrel range.
The global glut in crude oil will continue into the foreseeable future, as production from OPEC nations continues at near capacity and US rig counts continue to creep slowly upward.
Precious metals posted small gains, but remain off their recent highs. This appears to be a time of price consolidation prior to the next leg upward, the four-year bear market now clearly in the rear view mirror and fading from view.
Besides the FOMC meeting, focus is clearly on the political front, as the Democratic National Convention enters the second of its four-day schedule. Much of the rancor over the leaked emails has subsided, though delegates and supporters of Bernie Sanders - the runner-up to Hillary Clinton in the primaries - continue to protest and clamor for their candidate.
Tonight's main event is the delegate roll-call, sure to be accompanied by loud cheers, jeers, assorted sign-waving, and yelping from the disaffected Sanders delegations. It is expected that Hillary Clinton will be awarded the delegates she needs to secure the Democratic nomination, though many Sanders supporters have not given up hope for a last-minute change of heart by some super delegates.
It's a long shot for Sanders, but he will continue his fight for social justice as a serious sideshow in the run-up to November's elections.
Tuesday's Tremble:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,473.75, -19.31 (-0.10%)
NASDAQ
5,110.05, +12.42 (0.24%)
S&P 500
2,169.18, +0.70 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite
10,772.99, +20.56 (0.19%)
There was a sudden drop in equities across the board early in the day on Tuesday, sending the major indices into negative territory, a place they spent most of the remainder of the session.
Oil continued its relentless decline off ridiculously high levels reached last month. While today's drop was less than one percent, the price of WTI crude for September 2016 delivery fell to a three-month low as gasoline demand in the US and most other developed nations remains stubbornly low. The last traded price was in the $42.82 per barrel range.
The global glut in crude oil will continue into the foreseeable future, as production from OPEC nations continues at near capacity and US rig counts continue to creep slowly upward.
Precious metals posted small gains, but remain off their recent highs. This appears to be a time of price consolidation prior to the next leg upward, the four-year bear market now clearly in the rear view mirror and fading from view.
Besides the FOMC meeting, focus is clearly on the political front, as the Democratic National Convention enters the second of its four-day schedule. Much of the rancor over the leaked emails has subsided, though delegates and supporters of Bernie Sanders - the runner-up to Hillary Clinton in the primaries - continue to protest and clamor for their candidate.
Tonight's main event is the delegate roll-call, sure to be accompanied by loud cheers, jeers, assorted sign-waving, and yelping from the disaffected Sanders delegations. It is expected that Hillary Clinton will be awarded the delegates she needs to secure the Democratic nomination, though many Sanders supporters have not given up hope for a last-minute change of heart by some super delegates.
It's a long shot for Sanders, but he will continue his fight for social justice as a serious sideshow in the run-up to November's elections.
Tuesday's Tremble:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,473.75, -19.31 (-0.10%)
NASDAQ
5,110.05, +12.42 (0.24%)
S&P 500
2,169.18, +0.70 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite
10,772.99, +20.56 (0.19%)
Monday, July 25, 2016
Monday Blues: Stocks Fall; Is It The Trump, Clinton, Sanders or Putin Effect?
Over the weekend, the political climate became highly charged with the release of thousands of emails from the servers of the Democratic National Committee courtesy of Wikileaks and, as some presume, the assistance of Russian operatives. The propaganda nailing Russia as the bad guy was already underway as of the Sunday news shows. It's very likely to be completely spurious.
The leaked emails revealed a concerted effort to swing the primary vote toward the favored candidate, Hillary Clinton, and away from upstart radical, Bernie Sanders. To say the least, the emails were scandalous and disgusting, revealing just how deeply ingrained the status quo has become, and the lengths to which they will plumb in order to have public opinion bend to their will.
Suffering the most from the fallout was DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who was forced to announce her resignation as chair on Saturday. Ms. Schultz announced that she would gavel in the convention on Monday and gavel it out on Thursday.
Those plans fell completely apart on Monday as first, Ms. Schultz was shouted down as she attempted to address the Florida delegation, ironically, people from her own state. After being unceremoniously whisked from the stage, Ms. Schultz announced that she will not be associated with the convention in any way.
In two words: she's fired.
As has been mentioned on this blog in the past and as recently as the prior post which wrapped up last week, once the powers that be begin getting a whiff of a Donald Trump victory in November's presidential election, stocks will fall, leaving the Donald a mess not unlike what greeted Barack Obama in 2008.
So it is, when central banks and oligarchical politicians believe they can control not only markets, but the lives of the people investing in them.
The modern equivalent of torches and pitchforks are cellphone videos and anti-establishment signs.
Peace. It's a foreign concept in this period and the madness is swelling.
Monday's Politically-Charged Changes:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,493.06, -77.79 (-0.42%)
NASDAQ
5,097.63, -2.53 (-0.05%)
S&P 500
2,168.48, -6.55 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite
10,752.43, -52.61 (-0.49%)
The leaked emails revealed a concerted effort to swing the primary vote toward the favored candidate, Hillary Clinton, and away from upstart radical, Bernie Sanders. To say the least, the emails were scandalous and disgusting, revealing just how deeply ingrained the status quo has become, and the lengths to which they will plumb in order to have public opinion bend to their will.
Suffering the most from the fallout was DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who was forced to announce her resignation as chair on Saturday. Ms. Schultz announced that she would gavel in the convention on Monday and gavel it out on Thursday.
Those plans fell completely apart on Monday as first, Ms. Schultz was shouted down as she attempted to address the Florida delegation, ironically, people from her own state. After being unceremoniously whisked from the stage, Ms. Schultz announced that she will not be associated with the convention in any way.
In two words: she's fired.
As has been mentioned on this blog in the past and as recently as the prior post which wrapped up last week, once the powers that be begin getting a whiff of a Donald Trump victory in November's presidential election, stocks will fall, leaving the Donald a mess not unlike what greeted Barack Obama in 2008.
So it is, when central banks and oligarchical politicians believe they can control not only markets, but the lives of the people investing in them.
The modern equivalent of torches and pitchforks are cellphone videos and anti-establishment signs.
Peace. It's a foreign concept in this period and the madness is swelling.
Monday's Politically-Charged Changes:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,493.06, -77.79 (-0.42%)
NASDAQ
5,097.63, -2.53 (-0.05%)
S&P 500
2,168.48, -6.55 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite
10,752.43, -52.61 (-0.49%)
July 18-22: Stocks Level Out After Massive Gains
The huge run-up in stock prices appears to be running out of steam, or buyers, or both.
Since bottoming out post-Brexit, major US indices have ramped higher by nearly ten percent over just the past four weeks. The Dow, for instance, has gained over 1500 points while powering to new high after new high.
The most recent week, however, was the weakest in the last four, with the possible exception of the NASDAQ, which was up more than double its rivals in percentage terms.
This is not to say that the recent rally is over. Far from it, there is no sign of exhaustion in the ranks of central banks, especially the Fed, which will be pulling out all the stops to keep the narrative of an "improving economy" rolling through the week, highlighted by the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
Following the Philly love-fest for Hillary Clinton (never mind the various email and other scandals surrounding the candidate and the rest of the Dems... they will be swept under the rug), the Fed will continue to pour money into stocks through their appointed agents right up until the election.
Setting up what could be one of the easiest buying opportunities in recent memory (though as memory serves, the past eight years haven't been too difficult for stock traders), stocks or index funds could be a very safe place over the coming three months.
A Trump victory in November would probably derail both the giddy narrative and the actual stock market rally, as the status quo would then find themselves on the defensive, with the White House in the hands of a non-politician, non-elitist, populist campaigner. Should Clinton capture the presidency, a slow decline might be the more likely scenario, as the wheels of industry continue their slow grind into mediocrity.
With so much uncertainty, investors have been seen hoarding hard assets. Paid-up real estate, precious metals, machinery and tools of trades can still be had at reasonable levels, and they should not lose much value over the longer term. In fact, they should appreciate quite nicely no matter what happens after November.
For The Week:
Dow: +54.30 (+0.2(%)
S&P 500: +13.29 (+0.61)
NASDAQ: +70.57 (+1.40)
Friday:
NASDAQ Composite
5,100.16, +26.26 (0.52%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,570.85, +53.62 (0.29%)
S&P 500
2,175.03, +9.86 (0.46%)
Since bottoming out post-Brexit, major US indices have ramped higher by nearly ten percent over just the past four weeks. The Dow, for instance, has gained over 1500 points while powering to new high after new high.
The most recent week, however, was the weakest in the last four, with the possible exception of the NASDAQ, which was up more than double its rivals in percentage terms.
This is not to say that the recent rally is over. Far from it, there is no sign of exhaustion in the ranks of central banks, especially the Fed, which will be pulling out all the stops to keep the narrative of an "improving economy" rolling through the week, highlighted by the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
Following the Philly love-fest for Hillary Clinton (never mind the various email and other scandals surrounding the candidate and the rest of the Dems... they will be swept under the rug), the Fed will continue to pour money into stocks through their appointed agents right up until the election.
Setting up what could be one of the easiest buying opportunities in recent memory (though as memory serves, the past eight years haven't been too difficult for stock traders), stocks or index funds could be a very safe place over the coming three months.
A Trump victory in November would probably derail both the giddy narrative and the actual stock market rally, as the status quo would then find themselves on the defensive, with the White House in the hands of a non-politician, non-elitist, populist campaigner. Should Clinton capture the presidency, a slow decline might be the more likely scenario, as the wheels of industry continue their slow grind into mediocrity.
With so much uncertainty, investors have been seen hoarding hard assets. Paid-up real estate, precious metals, machinery and tools of trades can still be had at reasonable levels, and they should not lose much value over the longer term. In fact, they should appreciate quite nicely no matter what happens after November.
For The Week:
Dow: +54.30 (+0.2(%)
S&P 500: +13.29 (+0.61)
NASDAQ: +70.57 (+1.40)
Friday:
NASDAQ Composite
5,100.16, +26.26 (0.52%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,570.85, +53.62 (0.29%)
S&P 500
2,175.03, +9.86 (0.46%)
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Too Much Drama: Brexit/Bremain And US Presidential Elections Are Sideshows To Be Ignored
Kids love drama. That's why they put on little shows for their friends, parents, grandparents, other siblings. They are also expert at throwing tantrums and acting out to get their own ways on things they like and/or don't like, or want to or don't want to do.Typically, kids don't like certain foods (think vegetables), going to bed early or being cooped up in a classroom for 6-7 hours a day from the time they're six until seventeen or eighteen. If kids decide to go on to college, they may actually find themselves in classrooms until they're 21, 22 or even longer should they decide to attend graduate school, become a lawyer, doctor, or pursue a doctorate in any field of endeavor.
Of the three things kids don't like, it can be readily assumed that at least two of them are actually good for them, even after they cease being kids. For instance, vegetables (especially the non-GMO varieties) are proven to be good for overall health, vitality and longevity. Getting a good night's sleep is also a very healthy, albeit numb in the main, activity.
Going to school for a significant percentage of one's formative years is questionable. A solid education is admirable and achievable, though what constitutes such in public schools may not exactly fit the billing. Thus, the love of and use of drama to achieve ends is largely unjustified in the case of the wants (not needs) of people under the age of 20, i.e., kids.
Expanding this concept - that drama is unjustifiable - into adult life and interaction with mass media, might be useful in assessing current events, particularly the upcoming vote or referendum (tomorrow, Thursday, June 23) on whether Great Britain sh
ould remain or leave the European Union (otherwise known as Brexit or Bremain, depending upon one's point of view) and the drawn out affair that has become a nearly two-year ritual in choosing a president in the United States.
In terms of both events, the media time allotted to examining, reporting, tweeting, broadcasting, dissecting, analyzing, and otherwise trying to understand the issues has been, in a word, excessive.
In other words, the media, obsessed with having to fill countless hours of broadcast time (radio, TV, internet) and print space (newspapers, magazines, internet) has committed the undeniable sin of "too much drama." The British and American people have been overwhelmed with "news" on the impact of the British referendum and the American election.
Both events will take place in the span of one day, yet the time allocated to it by the media exceeds that period by orders of magnitude.
Like kids, the media clamors for attention, trying to convince the public (and maybe even themselves) of the overall importance of these events. Truth is, neither will matter that much to the normal functioning of an average adult life. Whether Britain remains in the EU or not will not have dramatic impact on one's individual day-to-day activities, nor will the choice of Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton for Americans.
Mainstream media would rather have you and I and everyone else in the world glued to their TVs and radios and internet sites and newspapers non-stop, forever and ever, no matter how trivial or important the current crop of stories, analyses, and perceptions.
Most adults (and kids, too) have a routine in their lives which goes something like this: get up, clean up, work, eat, relax, sleep. In between those major activities - and it is possibly an amazing discovery that roughly a third of that time is devoted to sleeping, and maybe another third to working - people do everything else, including, in no particular order, having sex, voting, playing, raising kids, tending a garden, pursuing a hobby, reading, listening to or viewing things other than what the mainstream media spouts effusively, and a plethora of other mundane activities.
The point is that the elections fall into this diffuse area occupied in the large by "everything else." Brexit and the presidential elections barely even register on the life radar in terms of importance, meaning that whatever way it goes, individuals (aka, people) will go about their lives in largely the same way as before the "monumental" voting.
That the media devotes so much time, effort and money to events which are, in general terms, non-eventful, uncovers the abject failure of life in the information age. If you're in your 60s, for instance, you've lived through the administrations of as many as 12 presidents (Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama) and are now on the cusp for a 13th. Whether the choice is Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will, in the long route of history, be conspicuously inconsequential.
From that timely perspective, each and every one of these presidents has done a fair job of keeping the American public somewhat safe, secure and happy, protected the constitution to varying degrees, and also kept the American public in check, or, kept the general population from violent rebellion. On that final point, we're probably a bit more civilized these days, choosing to simply ignore the government as much as possible than openly rebelling against it. That kind of stuff generally gets one killed, maimed, or jailed, none of which are desirable outcomes.
As for the Brits, Money Daily doesn't have much interaction with our former colonial masters, but England seems to be a somewhat genteel and fair place to live. The current living residents of England will cast their votes tomorrow, but the effects will be barely noticeable, likely for decades. People will adjust and adapt.
While Brits and Yanks alike are concerned about the deterioration of their civil liberties - a theme common to the Brexit/Bremain vote and the US presidential election - it seems a slow, drawn-out process and also one to which one can adjust. Just like eating your vegetables and getting a good night's sleep are desirable and contribute to a better life, ignoring elections and votes and avoiding government at all levels is probably the most prudent behavior.
And prudence, from Aristotle to Aquinas to Pascal, is a vastly more desirable human trait than relying on personal drama to achieve one's desires.
+++++++++++ +++++++++++
Today in the markets, perhaps taking an unattributable cue from the above essay, there wasn't much in the way of panic, fear, greed, avarice, sloth, joy, or any other emotion. Equity markets were fairly flat, owing to the unforgivable media rhetoric surrounding tomorrow's Brexit/Bremain referendum having wrung out every possible trading scheme or maneuver.
Panic? Thy Name is Brexit:
S&P 500: 2,085.45, -3.45 (0.17%)
Dow: 17,780.83, -48.90 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,833.32, -10.44 (0.22%)
Crude Oil 48.95 +0.20% Gold 1,269.10 -0.27% EUR/USD 1.1294 +0.41% 10-Yr Bond 1.69 -0.71% Corn 395.00 -0.32% Copper 2.13 +0.78% Silver 17.28 -0.23% Natural Gas 2.91 -2.70% Russell 2000 1,148.97 -0.42% VIX 21.22 +14.83% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4691 +0.15% USD/JPY 104.4400 -0.32%
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, Turns More Dovish; Wedbush: Stocks Crash If Trump Wins
Stock junkies got their fix on Wall Street today, as the FOMC not only kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 1/4 to 1/2%, but reversed course on their planned four rate hikes in 2016, reducing the outlook to two, which, in the nuanced parlance that can only come from crony central bankers, means one more rate hike in 2016, likely not until September, at the earliest.
Talking heads from the various analyst camps spoke of a potential June hike, though, judging from the Fed's past actions, later, rather than sooner, would be the more likely timing. With US general elections coming in November, the Fed - no longer an altruistic entity, but a purely political one - a September rate cut would produce maximum chaos, which is surely the ongoing plan.
Not to put too cynical a spin on it, but the Federal Reserve has become completely politicized under Janet Yellen, with plenty of assistance and guidance by the mother hens which dominate policy from the White House. Employing high-sounding verbiage and the trappings and aura of majesty, the Fed has managed to hypnotize global markets and US citizens with their incredible blend of experimental policy and garbled, mangled language.
What the Fed has accomplished is nothing more than a furtherance of the ongoing wealth transfer from the distressed middle and lower classes to the uber-wealthy, while shutting out innovation, creativity and entrepreneurial spirit.
In essence, they are the ultimate destroyer of the American economy via globalist intentions and actions.
With their latest salvo of lick-spittle jawboning, they perpetuate the counterfeit of the US dollar and the fraud on savers which began in earnest with the financial collapse in 2008-09.
Stock promoters couldn't be happier, sending the major indices to their highest points since early January. With no impediments standing between them and median price-earnings ratios approaching pre-1929 levels, stocks are poised to completely erase the losses incurred through the first six weeks of the year.
With today's close, the Dow and S&P are within one strong day of getting even for the annum; the NASDAQ has a little more work to do.
December 31, 2015 closing prices:
Dow: 17,425.03
S&P: 2,043.94
NASDAQ: 5,007.41
Today's Fed-jacking:
S&P 500: 2,027.22, +11.29 (0.56%)
Dow: 17,325.76, +74.23 (0.43%)
NASDAQ: 4,763.97, +35.30 (0.75%)
Crude Oil 38.49 +5.92% Gold 1,264.00 +2.68% EUR/USD 1.1227 +1.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.9380 -1.07% Corn 368.25 -0.07% Copper 2.25 +0.94% Silver 15.64 +2.48% Natural Gas 1.87 +0.97% Russell 2000 1,074.51 +0.74% VIX 14.99 -10.99% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.79% USD/JPY 112.5475 -0.53%
In what has to be the #1 hit piece on Donald Trump from the Wall Street crony capitalists - via Yahoo! and CNBC, Wedbush's director of equity sales, Ian Winer (shouldn't that be I'm a Whiner?) says stocks will crash 50% if Trump is elected president.
Here's a link to the article and video (and some easy comments), and if you just want the video, go here!
CNBC, the #1 financial bull--it network, doesn't want to mention that stocks should fall 50% anyhow, and the entire economy will be gutted if Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders wins the election.
https://screen.yahoo.com/trump-catastrophic-stocks-wedbush-214000793.html
One of the better comments, by commentator takebreathandthink:
Inquiring minds want to know why Mr. Winer didn't call for a 60% or 80% crash. After all, if you're going to trash someone, why go just halfway?
Vote Trump. Wall Street hates him.
Talking heads from the various analyst camps spoke of a potential June hike, though, judging from the Fed's past actions, later, rather than sooner, would be the more likely timing. With US general elections coming in November, the Fed - no longer an altruistic entity, but a purely political one - a September rate cut would produce maximum chaos, which is surely the ongoing plan.
Not to put too cynical a spin on it, but the Federal Reserve has become completely politicized under Janet Yellen, with plenty of assistance and guidance by the mother hens which dominate policy from the White House. Employing high-sounding verbiage and the trappings and aura of majesty, the Fed has managed to hypnotize global markets and US citizens with their incredible blend of experimental policy and garbled, mangled language.
What the Fed has accomplished is nothing more than a furtherance of the ongoing wealth transfer from the distressed middle and lower classes to the uber-wealthy, while shutting out innovation, creativity and entrepreneurial spirit.
In essence, they are the ultimate destroyer of the American economy via globalist intentions and actions.
With their latest salvo of lick-spittle jawboning, they perpetuate the counterfeit of the US dollar and the fraud on savers which began in earnest with the financial collapse in 2008-09.
Stock promoters couldn't be happier, sending the major indices to their highest points since early January. With no impediments standing between them and median price-earnings ratios approaching pre-1929 levels, stocks are poised to completely erase the losses incurred through the first six weeks of the year.
With today's close, the Dow and S&P are within one strong day of getting even for the annum; the NASDAQ has a little more work to do.
December 31, 2015 closing prices:
Dow: 17,425.03
S&P: 2,043.94
NASDAQ: 5,007.41
Today's Fed-jacking:
S&P 500: 2,027.22, +11.29 (0.56%)
Dow: 17,325.76, +74.23 (0.43%)
NASDAQ: 4,763.97, +35.30 (0.75%)
Crude Oil 38.49 +5.92% Gold 1,264.00 +2.68% EUR/USD 1.1227 +1.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.9380 -1.07% Corn 368.25 -0.07% Copper 2.25 +0.94% Silver 15.64 +2.48% Natural Gas 1.87 +0.97% Russell 2000 1,074.51 +0.74% VIX 14.99 -10.99% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.79% USD/JPY 112.5475 -0.53%
In what has to be the #1 hit piece on Donald Trump from the Wall Street crony capitalists - via Yahoo! and CNBC, Wedbush's director of equity sales, Ian Winer (shouldn't that be I'm a Whiner?) says stocks will crash 50% if Trump is elected president.
Here's a link to the article and video (and some easy comments), and if you just want the video, go here!
CNBC, the #1 financial bull--it network, doesn't want to mention that stocks should fall 50% anyhow, and the entire economy will be gutted if Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders wins the election.
https://screen.yahoo.com/trump-catastrophic-stocks-wedbush-214000793.html
One of the better comments, by commentator takebreathandthink:
It's true, the markets will crash 50%. Also, the seas will turn to blood, meteors will rain down from the heavens, swarms of locusts will kill all of the crops in the world, every volcano will erupt, earthquakes will rip apart the continents, and the first born of everyone in the world will die (thank God I'm the youngest in my family).
Inquiring minds want to know why Mr. Winer didn't call for a 60% or 80% crash. After all, if you're going to trash someone, why go just halfway?
Vote Trump. Wall Street hates him.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Stars Align for Markets Amid Super Tuesday March Madness
While the Dems and Reps fight in various primaries for the right to represent as a party leader of the USA, US equity markets calmly said adieu at the opening bell and never gave a backward glance.
Tuesday's advance was one of the top three of the year, pushing off from the 50-day moving average on the Dow, which may well have been the anointed starting point for this leg of the extended rally. The close today was at the best level in nearly two months, something of a needed salve for banged-up bulls.
While there was little in the way of encouraging news for stocks to sound off so vociferously, there was certainly no absence of chart-wise subjectivism from which to spark.
As for a relationship to Donald Trump's or Hillary Clinton's seemingly unstoppable rise to become the nominee of their respective parties, there is probably none, though wiser people have made dumber bets that Hillary will be the eventual next president and further take out the case that she will be good for the economy. That happens to be the confirmed thinking of the status quo, which sees more Clinton-esque policies as somehow good for Wall Street (note: big hitters on the street have given heartily to her campaign and to the Clinton Foundation, whereas Mr. Trump has been largely self-funded).
Even bonds were in alignment with the general mood, the 10-year note closing at a multi-week high of 1.83%.
S&P 500: 1,978.35, +46.12 (2.39%)
Dow: 16,865.08, +348.58 (2.11%)
NASDAQ: 4,689.60, +131.65 (2.89%)
Crude Oil 34.39 +1.90% Gold 1,236.60 +0.18% EUR/USD 1.0871 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 +5.40% Corn 356.00 -0.28% Copper 2.15 +0.63% Silver 14.92 +0.01% Natural Gas 1.74 +1.46% Russell 2000 1,054.49 +1.99% VIX 17.70 -13.87% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3950 +0.17% USD/JPY 113.9270 +1.32%
Tuesday's advance was one of the top three of the year, pushing off from the 50-day moving average on the Dow, which may well have been the anointed starting point for this leg of the extended rally. The close today was at the best level in nearly two months, something of a needed salve for banged-up bulls.
While there was little in the way of encouraging news for stocks to sound off so vociferously, there was certainly no absence of chart-wise subjectivism from which to spark.
As for a relationship to Donald Trump's or Hillary Clinton's seemingly unstoppable rise to become the nominee of their respective parties, there is probably none, though wiser people have made dumber bets that Hillary will be the eventual next president and further take out the case that she will be good for the economy. That happens to be the confirmed thinking of the status quo, which sees more Clinton-esque policies as somehow good for Wall Street (note: big hitters on the street have given heartily to her campaign and to the Clinton Foundation, whereas Mr. Trump has been largely self-funded).
Even bonds were in alignment with the general mood, the 10-year note closing at a multi-week high of 1.83%.
S&P 500: 1,978.35, +46.12 (2.39%)
Dow: 16,865.08, +348.58 (2.11%)
NASDAQ: 4,689.60, +131.65 (2.89%)
Crude Oil 34.39 +1.90% Gold 1,236.60 +0.18% EUR/USD 1.0871 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 +5.40% Corn 356.00 -0.28% Copper 2.15 +0.63% Silver 14.92 +0.01% Natural Gas 1.74 +1.46% Russell 2000 1,054.49 +1.99% VIX 17.70 -13.87% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3950 +0.17% USD/JPY 113.9270 +1.32%
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Stocks Get Pre-Holiday Bounce on Israel-Gaza Truce
Looking as hard as possible for positive news upon which to launch a rally, the Wall Street casino got what it wanted from US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, who brokered a truce in the ongoing warfare between the state of Israel and militants in the Gaza Strip.
Announced just after noon Eastern Time, the truce was to begin at 2:00 pm ET, or roughly 9:00 pm Tel Aviv time.
How long the truce will remain n force is anybody's guess. The conflict in the Palestinian area of the Middle East has been going on for as long as most of us can remember, so whatever is achieved will be short-term at best, just like almost everything else these days, a matter of how far down a given road one can kick a can.
Outside the news that Palestinians and Israelis won't be trying to kill each other overtly for a few days, there was little going on to make investors optimistic.
Hostess, which had been in bankruptcy and was the recent victim of an ill-advised strike by the baker's union, went through a day of mediation and returned to court, where the judge signed off on liquidation of the company that used to make Ho-Hos, Twinkies, Ding-Dongs and assorted junk foods that have contributed in no small way to the epidemic of diabetes in this country.
Probably, it's for the good of the country - and fata$$es worldwide - that the company goes under.
Looking ahead, there's a half-day session on Friday, following the Thanksgiving holiday, which usually results in an eventually meaningless Black Friday rally as millions of misguided Americans crowd stores, malls and shopping centers to buy worthless trinkets and electronic gadgets for friends and relatives.
Too bad Christmas will never get here, as the world is scheduled to end on December 22, according to the Incas, or Aztecs, or somebody.
Well, nobody likes a Scrooge at this time of year, so...
Free iPads and Houses for Everybody! And free Twinkies, too!
Happy Thanksgiving. Stay hungry, my friends.
Dow 12,836.89, +48.38 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,926.55, +9.87 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,391.03, +3.22 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 8,112.20, +25.78 (0.32%)
NYSE Volume 2,647,812,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,406,020,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3577-1856
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-71
WTI crude oil: 87.38, +0.63
Gold: 1,728.20, +4.60
Silver: 33.35, +0.42
Announced just after noon Eastern Time, the truce was to begin at 2:00 pm ET, or roughly 9:00 pm Tel Aviv time.
How long the truce will remain n force is anybody's guess. The conflict in the Palestinian area of the Middle East has been going on for as long as most of us can remember, so whatever is achieved will be short-term at best, just like almost everything else these days, a matter of how far down a given road one can kick a can.
Outside the news that Palestinians and Israelis won't be trying to kill each other overtly for a few days, there was little going on to make investors optimistic.
Hostess, which had been in bankruptcy and was the recent victim of an ill-advised strike by the baker's union, went through a day of mediation and returned to court, where the judge signed off on liquidation of the company that used to make Ho-Hos, Twinkies, Ding-Dongs and assorted junk foods that have contributed in no small way to the epidemic of diabetes in this country.
Probably, it's for the good of the country - and fata$$es worldwide - that the company goes under.
Looking ahead, there's a half-day session on Friday, following the Thanksgiving holiday, which usually results in an eventually meaningless Black Friday rally as millions of misguided Americans crowd stores, malls and shopping centers to buy worthless trinkets and electronic gadgets for friends and relatives.
Too bad Christmas will never get here, as the world is scheduled to end on December 22, according to the Incas, or Aztecs, or somebody.
Well, nobody likes a Scrooge at this time of year, so...
Free iPads and Houses for Everybody! And free Twinkies, too!
Happy Thanksgiving. Stay hungry, my friends.
Dow 12,836.89, +48.38 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,926.55, +9.87 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,391.03, +3.22 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 8,112.20, +25.78 (0.32%)
NYSE Volume 2,647,812,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,406,020,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3577-1856
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-71
WTI crude oil: 87.38, +0.63
Gold: 1,728.20, +4.60
Silver: 33.35, +0.42
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