75 years ago today, the first nuclear bomb was used in warfare, as the United States dropped "Little Boy" on Hiroshima, Japan. Three days later, the US did the same to the Japanese city of Nagasaki with a nuclear device known by the nickname "Fat Man." Together, the two bombs ushered in a quick end to World War II in the Pacific, with Japan surrendering on August 15, and formally signing the instrument of surrender on September 2, aboard the USS Missouri, harbored in Tokyo Bay.
The 13-kiloton blast on Hiroshima destroyed nearly 5 square miles of the Japanese city. Upwards of 70,000 died instantly, and tens of thousands later perished from injury and radiation sickness. Though no official count was ever undertaken, estimates near 150,000 total killed are common.
No other nuclear device has ever been used in military combat since the two that ended World War II. Today's nuclear weapons are orders of magnitude more powerful than the two dropped on Japan. According to a 2104 article by the Brookings Institute, the largest ballistic missile warhead in the US arsenal is 455 kilotons on the W88, carried by the Trident II SLBM. The B83 nuclear weapon, which is the largest nuclear weapon currently in the U.S. stockpile is estimated at 1.2 megatons, 1000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, "Little Boy."
While these explosions occurred 75 years ago, there's another explosion evident today, that being the one in the price of silver, which is up more than 50 percent in just the last 30 days.
Overnight, the price of an ounce of silver not only passed $27 an ounce, it surpassed $28 per ounce. As of this writing, the bid price on August silver futures is $28.22. As is the case with gold, getting physical metal at anywhere near the futures or spot prices is basically an impossibility.
For instance, there's little availability of gold in bars or coins of over one ounce at dealers worldwide. Typical prices for one ounce gold coins or bars carries a premium of roughly $100 beyond spot. Silver is even more dear, with 30-40% premiums common. Typical prices for one ounce coins or bars is $34 and higher.
Money Daily has outlined the reasons for silver and gold's spectacular gains this year in previous posts, mostly attributing the rise to destruction of fiat currencies by incessant central bank counterfeiting and negative real interest rates. Outstripping every other asset this year, precious metals are just beginning what is likely to become known as the greatest rally ever.
The Federal Reserve, trapped into a corner of their own making, cannot do anything except prop up their favored equity and fixed-income markets via special buying programs that are essentially illegal and serve only as a temporary reprieve for companies that are insolvent and should be headed to bankruptcy. Beyond the roughly 30-40% of listed companies that are technically "zombies" - meaning current profits are not enough to pay the interest on their debt - US and other significant international banks have been frantically ramping up their loan loss reserves while also having taken advantage of handouts from the Federal Reserve.
Gold and silver's ascent is a signal the the entire monetary system of the planet - all based on faith and credit - is about to collapse. As it is, stocks are only being kept afloat by the Federal Reserve's ZIRP and special bond-buying programs. Their next step is to buy stocks directly, another violation of their charter. The same is being done in Europe and Asia. Japan and Switzerland have been buyers of equities for years.
It's not just big money institutional investors who see the damage being done to the global currency regime. Ordinary people are losing faith in the dollar, euro, pound, Swiss franc, yen, and China's yuan, though the US dollar has been the hardest hit recently when measured against other currencies.
Gold has been making record highs against all other currencies for months and years. Just last week gold topped the all-time high against the dollar, signaling that the real rout of all currencies is just beginning. Silver hasn't even come close to its record high of $49 an ounce, though it certainly will, probably early in 2021, if not sooner. The rocket-like nature of silver's price explosion gives credence to current thinking that it is the gentleman's way of saying good-bye to other currencies.
There's an old adage that goes something like this:
Gold is the money of kings.
Silver is the money of gentlemen.
Copper is the money of commoners.
Debt is the money of slaves.
Smart money is on gold and silver replacing the fiat currencies within one to three years.
You can have your stocks, your bonds, your Federal Reserve Notes, but gold and silver are blowing them all away. If you don't own physical gold or silver or other tradable hard assets within the next few years, you're going to be out of luck and likely out of money.
Right now, the economic wheels are wobbling on their axles. When they finally fall off - and they will - chaos will ensue. We've seen nothing yet.
At the close, Wednesday, August 5, 2020:
Dow: 27,201.52, +373.05 (+1.39%)
NASDAQ: 10,998.40, +57.23 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 3,327.77, +21.26 (+0.64%)
NYSE: 12,731.55, +119.46 (+0.95%)
Showing posts with label Yen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yen. Show all posts
Thursday, August 6, 2020
Thursday, May 7, 2020
Deflation, Inflation, Hyperinflation, Signal to Noise Ratio, Gold, Silver, and the End of the Dollar
Everything that has happened so far was predictable.
The worldwide government response to the COVID-19 pandemic was as easy to see for cynics and skeptics as the eventual lying that would take place. First, back in January and early February, the federal government told the public that the threat to Americans from the coronavirus that was ravishing China was minimal. Gradually, that advice was replaced by travel restrictions to and from mainland China, then to and from Europe, until finally, infections and deaths from the virus began to multiply in America.
By mid-March and into the first days of Spring, the veil had been lifted and the virus was spreading rapidly across the United States, thanks to millions of international travelers on ships and airplanes that had been allowed to come and go as they pleased through the winter. Individual cases turned into clusters and clusters to severe outbreaks, especially in New York City, not surprisingly a hub for international travel.
By the time congress got around to passing emergency legislation, lockdowns and shelter-in-place recommendations were put into play by governors of the individual states. The legislation contained the usual: massive injections of currency into Wall Street (because we can't have a stock market crash), a pittance for the public, and payments to hospitals for treating patients infected with COVID-19: $13,000 for each patient admitted; $39,000 for each patient put on a ventilator.
Anybody who has been following government and Federal Reserve policy knew that the response would be to throw massive amounts of currency at the problem because that's all they know about how to handle crises.
And here we are. The government is now readying a fourth "stimulus" bill, chock full of more handouts, bailouts, and currency drops. This time, the public gets nothing. States and municipalities are going to get tons of currency to bail out their broken, drained public coffers and keep millions of teachers, cops, firemen, and paper-pushers on the job and their pensions partially funded because having the Fed backstop municipal bonds simply wasn't enough. Hospitals will get more currency. Small businesses will get another tranche of loans, pressing cynics to respond that cities get grants, while businesses have to pay it back.
All of this currency printing and government deficits won't amount to a hill of beans because the transmission mechanism for the velocity of money is broken. Cops, teachers, and firemen will get paid, but they'll be scared to take on new debt and will spend much of their money paying down credit card bills and overpriced mortgages. After another crash to lower levels, the stock market will stabilize.
The US will have deflation, widely, in big-ticket assets like stocks (market crash), bonds (rolling defaults), real estate (forbearance today leads to foreclosure tomorrow), trickling down to things like furniture (no interest for 5, 6, 7 years), cars (rebates, cash back, 0% financing), and appliances (oversupply). Food, especially meat, which is getting a bit pricey right now due to chinks in the supply chain, will not be affected much. Food was the one thing that didn't go up or down much during the Great Depression of the 1930s. It was cheap enough so that people didn't starve, though meats were generally considered close to being luxuries, so no worries there, until hyperinflation. Besides, even if you have a tiny back yard, you can grow some vegetables of your own to offset any price rises in meats. Why do you think your mother was always telling you to eat your vegetables? Sometimes there just isn't enough meat.
After six to 18 months of deflation, all the while the Fed printing dollars like maniacs and the government running massive deficits (probably over $8 trillion this fiscal year alone (through September 30), prices will seem to stabilize. By this time next year (2021), many will think the crisis has passed, mostly because that's what they'll be telling you on TV. But, it's just a lull. Inflation will return as all that currency begins to be spent into the economy. As the velocity of money ramps up, the Fed will respond by raising interest rates, but it won't matter. The game is on, with hyperinflation underway, the currency will continue losing value and eventually, there will be a massive default on dollar debt.
Forget, for for a few weeks or a few months what's happening on a day-to-day basis. It's mostly noise. The signal to noise ratio (SNR or S/N), a measure used in science and engineering that compares the level of a desired signal to the level of background noise, in today's economy, politics, and society, is very low, meaning the signal is barely transmitting the message as it is being drowned out by the noise.
In terms of decibels, to hear what's really happening in the world, the signal has to be about 60, the level of sound as conversational speech. If the noise is that of a rocket launch (180), the SNR is 0.33 and the noise drowns out the signal. When the SNR gets to above one (1), the signal can be heard. Putting that in perspective, a signal sound of a balloon popping is 125, a toilet flushing is 75, producing a SNR of 1.67. Those are appropriate today, as the balloon popping can metaphorically represent the debt bubble bursting and the toilet flushing the sound of US dollars losing value, going down the drain. That hasn't happened yet, but, as time progresses, the SNR will rise, pass 1.00 and the signal will eventually be loud and clear, one that everybody can hear. That's when inflation proceeds to hyperinflation, with prices rising faster than the Fed can print new currency.
It is at that point that you'll want to have gold, but especially, silver, because it will outperform the currency, just by standing still. Truth of the matter is that gold and silver don't really rise in price. An ounce of silver or a gram of gold is still an ounce or a gram. But the purchasing power of the currency is falling because there's more money circulating. Thus, in a very natural correspondence, gold and silver rise in value as the currency falls, which is why three 1964 dimes (90% silver) can buy more gas at the pump today, in 2020, than in 1964.
In the year 1964, the average retail price of gas in the U.S. was $0.30. So, back then, you could put a gallon of gas in your car with three 1964 (or earlier) dimes. Today, three dimes from 1964 or earlier are worth a silver melt value of about $1.10 each, so, with gas prices currently deflating to around $1.50 a gallon, you could buy more than two gallons of gas, even with silver (and gold) prices being suppressed. That's deflation. One could buy just one gallon and use the other roughly dime-and-a-half to help pay for the increased price of pork or beef. That's inflation. Inflation and deflation can and will occur - in different products or services - simultaneously.
Silver, even under the severe constraints imposed by the futures, central banks, the BIS, and other manipulators, has increased in value 1100% since 1964, an annual, non-compounded return of 16.67%. Try getting that from stocks or bonds. And silver is going higher. Much higher. The price of an ounce of silver in dollars is likely to double in the next few years, then double again, and again, as the dollar is gradually debased, losing all that's left of its purchasing power. Your 1964 dime will buy at least a gallon of gas or the equivalent in bread or beef or whatever items you wish to purchase. It will have value, as precious metals have for more than 5000 years. The dollar, and with it, the pound, yen, euro, yuan, and any other currency not backed by or tethered to a tangible asset (it doesn't have to be gold; it can be anything) will revert to its intrinsic value of ZERO, or close to it because every other country will be going through similar scenarios as the United States.
That's where this is all headed. Price deflation with currency inflation through Spring or Summer 2021, relative calm from 2021 to maybe the beginning of 2023, but likely before then, with inflation ramping up; then hyperinflation for two years before a complete monetary system reset is the only solution. It's not the length of time for these varying processes to occur that's importance, it's the sequence (deflation, calm (some inflation), inflation, hyperinflation) and the ability to spot the subtle changes that matters most.
Completely wrecking a global economy takes time. The Fed's been at it since 1913, and in 107 years have reduced the purchasing power of the dollar by about 97%. The last three percent - and the sopping up of all the malinvestment and toxic assets will take time... about three to four years.
At the Close, Wednesday, May 6, 2020:
Dow: 23,664.64, -218.45 (-0.91%)
NASDAQ: 8,854.39, +45.27 (+0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,848.42, -20.02 (-0.70%)
NYSE: 10,999.99, -135.41 (-1.22%)
The worldwide government response to the COVID-19 pandemic was as easy to see for cynics and skeptics as the eventual lying that would take place. First, back in January and early February, the federal government told the public that the threat to Americans from the coronavirus that was ravishing China was minimal. Gradually, that advice was replaced by travel restrictions to and from mainland China, then to and from Europe, until finally, infections and deaths from the virus began to multiply in America.
By mid-March and into the first days of Spring, the veil had been lifted and the virus was spreading rapidly across the United States, thanks to millions of international travelers on ships and airplanes that had been allowed to come and go as they pleased through the winter. Individual cases turned into clusters and clusters to severe outbreaks, especially in New York City, not surprisingly a hub for international travel.
By the time congress got around to passing emergency legislation, lockdowns and shelter-in-place recommendations were put into play by governors of the individual states. The legislation contained the usual: massive injections of currency into Wall Street (because we can't have a stock market crash), a pittance for the public, and payments to hospitals for treating patients infected with COVID-19: $13,000 for each patient admitted; $39,000 for each patient put on a ventilator.
Anybody who has been following government and Federal Reserve policy knew that the response would be to throw massive amounts of currency at the problem because that's all they know about how to handle crises.
And here we are. The government is now readying a fourth "stimulus" bill, chock full of more handouts, bailouts, and currency drops. This time, the public gets nothing. States and municipalities are going to get tons of currency to bail out their broken, drained public coffers and keep millions of teachers, cops, firemen, and paper-pushers on the job and their pensions partially funded because having the Fed backstop municipal bonds simply wasn't enough. Hospitals will get more currency. Small businesses will get another tranche of loans, pressing cynics to respond that cities get grants, while businesses have to pay it back.
All of this currency printing and government deficits won't amount to a hill of beans because the transmission mechanism for the velocity of money is broken. Cops, teachers, and firemen will get paid, but they'll be scared to take on new debt and will spend much of their money paying down credit card bills and overpriced mortgages. After another crash to lower levels, the stock market will stabilize.
The US will have deflation, widely, in big-ticket assets like stocks (market crash), bonds (rolling defaults), real estate (forbearance today leads to foreclosure tomorrow), trickling down to things like furniture (no interest for 5, 6, 7 years), cars (rebates, cash back, 0% financing), and appliances (oversupply). Food, especially meat, which is getting a bit pricey right now due to chinks in the supply chain, will not be affected much. Food was the one thing that didn't go up or down much during the Great Depression of the 1930s. It was cheap enough so that people didn't starve, though meats were generally considered close to being luxuries, so no worries there, until hyperinflation. Besides, even if you have a tiny back yard, you can grow some vegetables of your own to offset any price rises in meats. Why do you think your mother was always telling you to eat your vegetables? Sometimes there just isn't enough meat.
After six to 18 months of deflation, all the while the Fed printing dollars like maniacs and the government running massive deficits (probably over $8 trillion this fiscal year alone (through September 30), prices will seem to stabilize. By this time next year (2021), many will think the crisis has passed, mostly because that's what they'll be telling you on TV. But, it's just a lull. Inflation will return as all that currency begins to be spent into the economy. As the velocity of money ramps up, the Fed will respond by raising interest rates, but it won't matter. The game is on, with hyperinflation underway, the currency will continue losing value and eventually, there will be a massive default on dollar debt.
Forget, for for a few weeks or a few months what's happening on a day-to-day basis. It's mostly noise. The signal to noise ratio (SNR or S/N), a measure used in science and engineering that compares the level of a desired signal to the level of background noise, in today's economy, politics, and society, is very low, meaning the signal is barely transmitting the message as it is being drowned out by the noise.
In terms of decibels, to hear what's really happening in the world, the signal has to be about 60, the level of sound as conversational speech. If the noise is that of a rocket launch (180), the SNR is 0.33 and the noise drowns out the signal. When the SNR gets to above one (1), the signal can be heard. Putting that in perspective, a signal sound of a balloon popping is 125, a toilet flushing is 75, producing a SNR of 1.67. Those are appropriate today, as the balloon popping can metaphorically represent the debt bubble bursting and the toilet flushing the sound of US dollars losing value, going down the drain. That hasn't happened yet, but, as time progresses, the SNR will rise, pass 1.00 and the signal will eventually be loud and clear, one that everybody can hear. That's when inflation proceeds to hyperinflation, with prices rising faster than the Fed can print new currency.
It is at that point that you'll want to have gold, but especially, silver, because it will outperform the currency, just by standing still. Truth of the matter is that gold and silver don't really rise in price. An ounce of silver or a gram of gold is still an ounce or a gram. But the purchasing power of the currency is falling because there's more money circulating. Thus, in a very natural correspondence, gold and silver rise in value as the currency falls, which is why three 1964 dimes (90% silver) can buy more gas at the pump today, in 2020, than in 1964.
In the year 1964, the average retail price of gas in the U.S. was $0.30. So, back then, you could put a gallon of gas in your car with three 1964 (or earlier) dimes. Today, three dimes from 1964 or earlier are worth a silver melt value of about $1.10 each, so, with gas prices currently deflating to around $1.50 a gallon, you could buy more than two gallons of gas, even with silver (and gold) prices being suppressed. That's deflation. One could buy just one gallon and use the other roughly dime-and-a-half to help pay for the increased price of pork or beef. That's inflation. Inflation and deflation can and will occur - in different products or services - simultaneously.
Silver, even under the severe constraints imposed by the futures, central banks, the BIS, and other manipulators, has increased in value 1100% since 1964, an annual, non-compounded return of 16.67%. Try getting that from stocks or bonds. And silver is going higher. Much higher. The price of an ounce of silver in dollars is likely to double in the next few years, then double again, and again, as the dollar is gradually debased, losing all that's left of its purchasing power. Your 1964 dime will buy at least a gallon of gas or the equivalent in bread or beef or whatever items you wish to purchase. It will have value, as precious metals have for more than 5000 years. The dollar, and with it, the pound, yen, euro, yuan, and any other currency not backed by or tethered to a tangible asset (it doesn't have to be gold; it can be anything) will revert to its intrinsic value of ZERO, or close to it because every other country will be going through similar scenarios as the United States.
That's where this is all headed. Price deflation with currency inflation through Spring or Summer 2021, relative calm from 2021 to maybe the beginning of 2023, but likely before then, with inflation ramping up; then hyperinflation for two years before a complete monetary system reset is the only solution. It's not the length of time for these varying processes to occur that's importance, it's the sequence (deflation, calm (some inflation), inflation, hyperinflation) and the ability to spot the subtle changes that matters most.
Completely wrecking a global economy takes time. The Fed's been at it since 1913, and in 107 years have reduced the purchasing power of the dollar by about 97%. The last three percent - and the sopping up of all the malinvestment and toxic assets will take time... about three to four years.
Anything that has more upside than downside from random events (or certain shocks) is antifragile; the reverse is fragile.
We have been fragilizing the economy, our health, political life, education, almost everything… by suppressing randomness and volatility. Much of our modern, structured, world has been harming us with top-down policies and contraptions… which do precisely this: an insult to the antifragility of systems. This is the tragedy of modernity: As with neurotically overprotective parents, those trying to help are often hurting us the most.
-- Nasim Taleb
It would be nice if we started listening to the people who have been right rather than the people who have theories.
-- Mike Maloney, The Hidden Secrets of Money, Episode 7, Velocity & the Money Illusion
At the Close, Wednesday, May 6, 2020:
Dow: 23,664.64, -218.45 (-0.91%)
NASDAQ: 8,854.39, +45.27 (+0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,848.42, -20.02 (-0.70%)
NYSE: 10,999.99, -135.41 (-1.22%)
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Fittingly, Bitcoin Nears $10,000 on Cyber Monday
Catching a ten-bagger is a noteworthy event in any trader's history, but believers in Bitcoin - the original and most prominent cryptocurrency on the planet - are enjoying their days in the sun as the currency heads for $10,000, currently trading for more than $9900 per digital coin.
Bitcoin ended 2016 at a mere $970.17, but it's gone completely bonkers in 2017 as more and more people adopt the digital currency as a hedge against the faults of fiat currencies of central bankers that are based on nothing but faith.
While bitcoin is similarly faith-based, it has properties that traditional currencies do not. It is anonymous, and also not subject to excessive printing of fresh fiat out of thin air. The number of bitcoins mined is capped at 21 million. There are only four million left to be mined. After that, there can be no more Bitcoins ever created, so the currency has an inflation governor that is rivaled only by gold, silver and other precious metals.
This advantage is not lost on holders and speculators in Bitcoin. As acceptance and adoption grows, the number of bitcoin holders naturally ratchets up the price. As of this writing, Bitcoin's market cap is higher than many major corporations, making the digital currency something that keeps central bankers on their toes.
Widespread acceptance of Bitcoin threatens the central bank stranglehold on global forex, currencies and commerce. While this speculative phase is phenomenal for early adopters (some who bought into the Bitcoin mania before it was even priced in triple digits), the long-term implications are other-worldly. If Bitcoin - or some other form of cryptocurrency continues to be established globally - it could conceivably rival currencies such as the US dollar, the euro, Japanese yen or China's yuan.
Just as gold and silver have been recognized as money, currency and stores of value for thousands of years, so too, Bitcoin has emerged as a potentially viable alternative for the 21st century.
At the Close, Monday, November 27, 2017:
Dow: 23,580.78, +22.79 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 6,878.52, -10.64 (-0.15%)
S&P 500: 2,601.42, -1.00 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 12,390.78, -31.15 (-0.25%)
Bitcoin ended 2016 at a mere $970.17, but it's gone completely bonkers in 2017 as more and more people adopt the digital currency as a hedge against the faults of fiat currencies of central bankers that are based on nothing but faith.
While bitcoin is similarly faith-based, it has properties that traditional currencies do not. It is anonymous, and also not subject to excessive printing of fresh fiat out of thin air. The number of bitcoins mined is capped at 21 million. There are only four million left to be mined. After that, there can be no more Bitcoins ever created, so the currency has an inflation governor that is rivaled only by gold, silver and other precious metals.
This advantage is not lost on holders and speculators in Bitcoin. As acceptance and adoption grows, the number of bitcoin holders naturally ratchets up the price. As of this writing, Bitcoin's market cap is higher than many major corporations, making the digital currency something that keeps central bankers on their toes.
Widespread acceptance of Bitcoin threatens the central bank stranglehold on global forex, currencies and commerce. While this speculative phase is phenomenal for early adopters (some who bought into the Bitcoin mania before it was even priced in triple digits), the long-term implications are other-worldly. If Bitcoin - or some other form of cryptocurrency continues to be established globally - it could conceivably rival currencies such as the US dollar, the euro, Japanese yen or China's yuan.
Just as gold and silver have been recognized as money, currency and stores of value for thousands of years, so too, Bitcoin has emerged as a potentially viable alternative for the 21st century.
At the Close, Monday, November 27, 2017:
Dow: 23,580.78, +22.79 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 6,878.52, -10.64 (-0.15%)
S&P 500: 2,601.42, -1.00 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 12,390.78, -31.15 (-0.25%)
Monday, July 24, 2017
For US Markets, It's Splits-ville Again
Another day, another session punctuated by divergent indices.
The NASDAQ goes up; the Dow goes down, or vice versa. The S&P 500 and NYSE Composite seem to go their own ways, more often than not, separate. All of this reeks of manipulation, selectivity, goal-seeking, and just about anything other than rational investing.
Upon examination, the stock market is nothing more than pieces of paper representing shares in company X or Y or Z, being traded for other pieces of paper known as yen, dollars, euros or pesos. It's the ultimate paper chase, based entirely on faith and foolery of grand design by the world's central bankers. It's a confidence game being played at the highest levels of finance, a dangerous precedent for the entire planet.
Unless the public detaches from the fraud, it will continue. The unique phenomenon at work in today's financial arenas is commonly known to psychiatrists as normalcy bias. It is the belief that everything seems to be working all right, so the urge to change is minimized, which is precisely the condition present in the debt-infested governments, businesses, and households everywhere.
The ultimate fear is that confidence is lost in the fiat system. After eight long years of propping up governments, businesses, and households with freshly-printed-or-minted cash, confidence is still durable, thanks to normalcy bias.
But, there are canaries in the coal mine, so to speak. These are burgeoning, non-repayable government debt, underfunded pensions (especially public union pensions), slack demand, disinflation, demographics, and the undeniable eventuality of recession, either in the US, Europe, or globally.
Fighting these trends with some degree of success has been the role of the central banks, but they are running out of viable options to keep global finance operating while also quelling local discontent, which is growing rapidly.
Money Daily does not pretend to know who is buying stocks and/or causing the variations in the major indices, but it is apparent that some entity other than brokerages are buying and it is well known that the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and European Central Bank (ECB) have been and will continue to be outright buyers of equities.
When these entities become sellers, there will be no bottom to the markets.
Caveat Emptor.
At the Close, 7/24/17:
Dow: 21,513.17, -66.90 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 6,410.81, +23.05 (0.36%)
S&P 500: 2,469.91, -2.63 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 11,904.71, -19.89 (-0.17%)
The NASDAQ goes up; the Dow goes down, or vice versa. The S&P 500 and NYSE Composite seem to go their own ways, more often than not, separate. All of this reeks of manipulation, selectivity, goal-seeking, and just about anything other than rational investing.
Upon examination, the stock market is nothing more than pieces of paper representing shares in company X or Y or Z, being traded for other pieces of paper known as yen, dollars, euros or pesos. It's the ultimate paper chase, based entirely on faith and foolery of grand design by the world's central bankers. It's a confidence game being played at the highest levels of finance, a dangerous precedent for the entire planet.
Unless the public detaches from the fraud, it will continue. The unique phenomenon at work in today's financial arenas is commonly known to psychiatrists as normalcy bias. It is the belief that everything seems to be working all right, so the urge to change is minimized, which is precisely the condition present in the debt-infested governments, businesses, and households everywhere.
The ultimate fear is that confidence is lost in the fiat system. After eight long years of propping up governments, businesses, and households with freshly-printed-or-minted cash, confidence is still durable, thanks to normalcy bias.
But, there are canaries in the coal mine, so to speak. These are burgeoning, non-repayable government debt, underfunded pensions (especially public union pensions), slack demand, disinflation, demographics, and the undeniable eventuality of recession, either in the US, Europe, or globally.
Fighting these trends with some degree of success has been the role of the central banks, but they are running out of viable options to keep global finance operating while also quelling local discontent, which is growing rapidly.
Money Daily does not pretend to know who is buying stocks and/or causing the variations in the major indices, but it is apparent that some entity other than brokerages are buying and it is well known that the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and European Central Bank (ECB) have been and will continue to be outright buyers of equities.
When these entities become sellers, there will be no bottom to the markets.
Caveat Emptor.
At the Close, 7/24/17:
Dow: 21,513.17, -66.90 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 6,410.81, +23.05 (0.36%)
S&P 500: 2,469.91, -2.63 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 11,904.71, -19.89 (-0.17%)
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Fed Jawboning Flattens Stocks, Boosts Dollar, Sends Treasury Yields Soaring
Hearing all this Fed-speak, one might pine for the days of old, when central bankers were seen and not heard, when their meetings were the stuff of secrets and rituals and transparency was reserved for a type of adhesive tape.
The current roster of the federal reserve is a lineup of chattering old men and women more suited for a Sunday festival than the stuff of high finance.
Regardless of one's opinion of the federal reserve, one thing is certain: they have Wall Street on edge. With the release of the minutes from April's FOMC fiasco, the dollar surged - in the main against the yen and euro - stocks tanked back to break-even for the day and the 10-year note yield shot up like a rocket, ending the day at 1.88%, a move of nearly seven percent.
Oil and PMs fell, as planned. It's ridiculous.
S&P 500: 2,047.63, +0.42 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,526.62, -3.36 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 4,739.12, +23.39 (0.50%)
Crude Oil 48.40 -1.20% Gold 1,259.50 -1.36% EUR/USD 1.1217 -0.84% 10-Yr Bond 1.88 +6.88% Corn 399.50 +0.63% Copper 2.06 -1.17% Silver 16.92 -1.88% Natural Gas 2.01 -2.05% Russell 2000 1,102.95 +0.48% VIX 15.95 +2.44% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4597 +0.94% USD/JPY 110.1950 +0.96%
The current roster of the federal reserve is a lineup of chattering old men and women more suited for a Sunday festival than the stuff of high finance.
Regardless of one's opinion of the federal reserve, one thing is certain: they have Wall Street on edge. With the release of the minutes from April's FOMC fiasco, the dollar surged - in the main against the yen and euro - stocks tanked back to break-even for the day and the 10-year note yield shot up like a rocket, ending the day at 1.88%, a move of nearly seven percent.
Oil and PMs fell, as planned. It's ridiculous.
S&P 500: 2,047.63, +0.42 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,526.62, -3.36 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 4,739.12, +23.39 (0.50%)
Crude Oil 48.40 -1.20% Gold 1,259.50 -1.36% EUR/USD 1.1217 -0.84% 10-Yr Bond 1.88 +6.88% Corn 399.50 +0.63% Copper 2.06 -1.17% Silver 16.92 -1.88% Natural Gas 2.01 -2.05% Russell 2000 1,102.95 +0.48% VIX 15.95 +2.44% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4597 +0.94% USD/JPY 110.1950 +0.96%
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Silver Pops Above $17/oz.; Intel Slashes 11,000 Jobs; Markets Steady
...and the beat goes on.
How long will it take before the majority of traders realize they've been fed a pack of lies in non-GAAP earnings reports, loaded with non-recurring, one-time charges, which oddly keep cropping up every other quarter, and profits that are the result of stock buybacks (fewer shares equals higher EPS)?
For most, the answer is "too long." Since Wall Street can only make money if stocks appear to be good investments - and that concept is quickly fleeing the coop - and have the confidence of investors, the con game of lowered expectations and "beats" will keep the dancers dancing well past midnight and into the wee hours of the morning.
When the party does finally end, there are going to be a lot of long faces, hung-over losers and poor explanations for why the market simply didn't keep going up forever and ever and ever. Central bankers the world over will be falling over each other before that happens, though, because where goes Wall Street, so goes central bank - and thus, fiat money - credibility, and that must be maintained at all costs, which just might include printing trillions and trillions more dollars, euros and yen before the money finds its justifiable price, that being the cost of ink on paper, or, essentially, nothing.
So, when pensioners find their nest eggs shattered and barren, and are being told that the paper promises are not going to be honored, it will be too late for the masses.
Only those free of debt, with some reasonable amount of hard assets - land, building, machinery, tools, art, gemstones, silver, and gold - will be whole and beholding to nobody. The rest will have to fend for themselves and their families as best as they can.
It is against this backdrop that the recent rise in the value of silver becomes important. Gold's little brother has risen from an even $14/ounce to close today just under 17 dollars an ounce, making it the best-performing asset of the year, passing by gold in the process.
There are numerous reasons that silver has been set afire in recent days. Less than a week ago, Deustche Bank agreed to settle lawsuits claiming the bank had engaged in price manipulation of silver as well as gold. This admission really put the afterburners to an already hopped-up commodity. Gold has been slower to respond, likely because silver had been manipulated much lower for much longer.
Traditionally, silver had been valued in relation to gold at anywhere from 16 to 20 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. Earlier this year, the gold:silver ratio screamed above 80, signifying that silver was likely undervalued by a magnitude of four. In other words, the true value of silver must come back to historical norms, either by the price of gold falling dramatically, or the price of silver rising astronomically (i.e., silver, at a 16:1 ratio to gold, would be selling for $78/ounce, with gold at $1250, where it currently resides).
What is a more plausible outcome is that - and this process could take several years, maybe as many as ten - both gold and silver will rise, though silver will rise at a much faster pace, eventually coming in line at 20:1 per ounce of gold. Both precious metals will see enormous advances in coming years as currencies depreciate and eventually die, paramount among them the Japanese Yen, the Euro, and the US Dollar, since the currencies of the most developed nations are also the most at risk, due to many factors, not the least of which being the excessive levels of debt held by the general public and government.
The Fed, the ECB and the BOJ will print to infinity, eventually bankrupting their counties and their currencies. Holders of gold and silver will be rewarded for both their vision and their patience.
The process has begun, but only those willing to hold an asset that offers no interest or rate of return, but also does not carry any counter-party risk, will prosper. Dollars, Yen and Euro will eventually devalue and finally default.
In the words of James Pierpont (J.P.) Morgan, spoken in 1912, a year before he helped launch the Federal Reserve:
Today's closing figures:
S&P 500: 2,100.80, +6.46 (0.31%)
Dow: 18,053.60, +49.44 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,940.33, -19.69 (0.40%)
Crude Oil 42.46 +3.08% Gold 1,251.80 +1.36% EUR/USD 1.1359 +0.41% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +0.56% Corn 383.50 +0.66% Copper 2.23 +2.84% Silver 16.96 +4.35% Natural Gas 2.09 +7.63% Russell 2000 1,140.23 +0.08% VIX 13.24 -0.82% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4394 +0.82% USD/JPY 109.1975 +0.33%
How long will it take before the majority of traders realize they've been fed a pack of lies in non-GAAP earnings reports, loaded with non-recurring, one-time charges, which oddly keep cropping up every other quarter, and profits that are the result of stock buybacks (fewer shares equals higher EPS)?
For most, the answer is "too long." Since Wall Street can only make money if stocks appear to be good investments - and that concept is quickly fleeing the coop - and have the confidence of investors, the con game of lowered expectations and "beats" will keep the dancers dancing well past midnight and into the wee hours of the morning.
When the party does finally end, there are going to be a lot of long faces, hung-over losers and poor explanations for why the market simply didn't keep going up forever and ever and ever. Central bankers the world over will be falling over each other before that happens, though, because where goes Wall Street, so goes central bank - and thus, fiat money - credibility, and that must be maintained at all costs, which just might include printing trillions and trillions more dollars, euros and yen before the money finds its justifiable price, that being the cost of ink on paper, or, essentially, nothing.
So, when pensioners find their nest eggs shattered and barren, and are being told that the paper promises are not going to be honored, it will be too late for the masses.
Only those free of debt, with some reasonable amount of hard assets - land, building, machinery, tools, art, gemstones, silver, and gold - will be whole and beholding to nobody. The rest will have to fend for themselves and their families as best as they can.
It is against this backdrop that the recent rise in the value of silver becomes important. Gold's little brother has risen from an even $14/ounce to close today just under 17 dollars an ounce, making it the best-performing asset of the year, passing by gold in the process.
There are numerous reasons that silver has been set afire in recent days. Less than a week ago, Deustche Bank agreed to settle lawsuits claiming the bank had engaged in price manipulation of silver as well as gold. This admission really put the afterburners to an already hopped-up commodity. Gold has been slower to respond, likely because silver had been manipulated much lower for much longer.
Traditionally, silver had been valued in relation to gold at anywhere from 16 to 20 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. Earlier this year, the gold:silver ratio screamed above 80, signifying that silver was likely undervalued by a magnitude of four. In other words, the true value of silver must come back to historical norms, either by the price of gold falling dramatically, or the price of silver rising astronomically (i.e., silver, at a 16:1 ratio to gold, would be selling for $78/ounce, with gold at $1250, where it currently resides).
What is a more plausible outcome is that - and this process could take several years, maybe as many as ten - both gold and silver will rise, though silver will rise at a much faster pace, eventually coming in line at 20:1 per ounce of gold. Both precious metals will see enormous advances in coming years as currencies depreciate and eventually die, paramount among them the Japanese Yen, the Euro, and the US Dollar, since the currencies of the most developed nations are also the most at risk, due to many factors, not the least of which being the excessive levels of debt held by the general public and government.
The Fed, the ECB and the BOJ will print to infinity, eventually bankrupting their counties and their currencies. Holders of gold and silver will be rewarded for both their vision and their patience.
The process has begun, but only those willing to hold an asset that offers no interest or rate of return, but also does not carry any counter-party risk, will prosper. Dollars, Yen and Euro will eventually devalue and finally default.
In the words of James Pierpont (J.P.) Morgan, spoken in 1912, a year before he helped launch the Federal Reserve:
Gold is Money. Everything Else is Credit.
Today's closing figures:
S&P 500: 2,100.80, +6.46 (0.31%)
Dow: 18,053.60, +49.44 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,940.33, -19.69 (0.40%)
Crude Oil 42.46 +3.08% Gold 1,251.80 +1.36% EUR/USD 1.1359 +0.41% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +0.56% Corn 383.50 +0.66% Copper 2.23 +2.84% Silver 16.96 +4.35% Natural Gas 2.09 +7.63% Russell 2000 1,140.23 +0.08% VIX 13.24 -0.82% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4394 +0.82% USD/JPY 109.1975 +0.33%
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Flash Crash Proves Individuals are OUT of the Market and Computers Run the Show
As mentioned briefly yesterday, US and European markets are a joke. They are manipulated beyond one's wildest imagination and almost exclusively, the trading is done by computer algorithms, as was made entirely too clear by the action in yesterday's hacked AP Twitter account-flash crash.
In case you missed it - after all, it was only a four minute event - stocks lost all of their gains when somebody hacked into the Twitter account of the Associated Press (AP) and posted that there were two explosions at the white House and that President Barack Obama had been injured.
The tweet was a hoax, but the computers - which cannot deduce and make value judgements - responded by selling off all stocks. Volume, as displayed in animations from nanex.net completely dried up, leaving a few computers trading with a few other computers.
In other words, there were very few, if any, human responses to the fake tweet. Welcome to the bidless US stock markets, where only the computers can get the best prices and humans are relegated to a back seat. Any wonder why individual investors are wary of the stock markets? The same conditions likely exist - though not in such a pronounced manner - in forex and commodity markets.
It's time the American people disengage from this lunacy where only the bankers, exchanges and traders profit.
Take, for instance, today's trading, in which, when all was said and done at the close, the S&P gained a penny, the NASDAQ, 32 cents, while the Dow was down 43 points and the NYSE Composite gained almost 34 points. Surely that makes sense to some master algo inside a supercomputer somewhere beneath the trading floors, but to us dumb humans, it's somewhat confounding and confusing.
CNBC's Rick Santelli astutely pointed out that the other trade impacted by the phony tweet was none other than the Japanese Yen - US Dollar cross and the Yen/Euro cross, making the point that the Yen is now also tied into US stocks by HFT algos. Lovely.
Sooner or later, there's going to be a mistake somewhere, or some purposeful key-logging or hacking that completely disrupts trading in markets nearly around the world, and by then it will be too late. Obviously, having algos that trade on the basis of tweeted information is rife with flaws and ripe for harvest by nefarious forces.
As far as today's trading is concerned, nothing really mattered, even though the US was hit with another poor economic report, this one on durable goods orders for March, which came in at -5.1% on expectations of -3.1, so it was a bad miss on an equally bad forecast.
The spate of bad economic data has been partially offset of late by fairly good earnings reports from a smorgasbord of companies, close to half the S&P 500 having already reported. Of course, the algos are all over those, programmed to buy heavily on any earnings beats and disregard most misses.
Reality seems to have evaded Wall Street on a semi-permanent basis, but, Wall Street has never purported to have been a place for well-grounded types of people in the first place.
With sociopaths running the computers which trade the world, humans are bound to get bruised, and badly.
Gold and silver got a little bit of a bid, but a good chuck of it after the COMEX trading session ended. Oil was the top-performer with a gain of more than two percent. Oil never seems to be able to stay down for long. Funny how that always seems to be the case.
Dow 14,676.30, -43.16 (0.29%)
NASDAQ 3,269.65, +0.32 (0.01%)
S&P 500 1,578.79, +0.01 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite 9,147.77, +32.65 (0.37%)
NASDAQ Volume... 1,643,812,625.00
NYSE Volume 3,647,139,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4021-2343
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 381-36
WTI crude oil: 91.43, +2.25
Gold: 1,423.70, +14.90
Silver: 22.83, +0.016
In case you missed it - after all, it was only a four minute event - stocks lost all of their gains when somebody hacked into the Twitter account of the Associated Press (AP) and posted that there were two explosions at the white House and that President Barack Obama had been injured.
The tweet was a hoax, but the computers - which cannot deduce and make value judgements - responded by selling off all stocks. Volume, as displayed in animations from nanex.net completely dried up, leaving a few computers trading with a few other computers.
In other words, there were very few, if any, human responses to the fake tweet. Welcome to the bidless US stock markets, where only the computers can get the best prices and humans are relegated to a back seat. Any wonder why individual investors are wary of the stock markets? The same conditions likely exist - though not in such a pronounced manner - in forex and commodity markets.
It's time the American people disengage from this lunacy where only the bankers, exchanges and traders profit.
Take, for instance, today's trading, in which, when all was said and done at the close, the S&P gained a penny, the NASDAQ, 32 cents, while the Dow was down 43 points and the NYSE Composite gained almost 34 points. Surely that makes sense to some master algo inside a supercomputer somewhere beneath the trading floors, but to us dumb humans, it's somewhat confounding and confusing.
CNBC's Rick Santelli astutely pointed out that the other trade impacted by the phony tweet was none other than the Japanese Yen - US Dollar cross and the Yen/Euro cross, making the point that the Yen is now also tied into US stocks by HFT algos. Lovely.
Sooner or later, there's going to be a mistake somewhere, or some purposeful key-logging or hacking that completely disrupts trading in markets nearly around the world, and by then it will be too late. Obviously, having algos that trade on the basis of tweeted information is rife with flaws and ripe for harvest by nefarious forces.
As far as today's trading is concerned, nothing really mattered, even though the US was hit with another poor economic report, this one on durable goods orders for March, which came in at -5.1% on expectations of -3.1, so it was a bad miss on an equally bad forecast.
The spate of bad economic data has been partially offset of late by fairly good earnings reports from a smorgasbord of companies, close to half the S&P 500 having already reported. Of course, the algos are all over those, programmed to buy heavily on any earnings beats and disregard most misses.
Reality seems to have evaded Wall Street on a semi-permanent basis, but, Wall Street has never purported to have been a place for well-grounded types of people in the first place.
With sociopaths running the computers which trade the world, humans are bound to get bruised, and badly.
Gold and silver got a little bit of a bid, but a good chuck of it after the COMEX trading session ended. Oil was the top-performer with a gain of more than two percent. Oil never seems to be able to stay down for long. Funny how that always seems to be the case.
Dow 14,676.30, -43.16 (0.29%)
NASDAQ 3,269.65, +0.32 (0.01%)
S&P 500 1,578.79, +0.01 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite 9,147.77, +32.65 (0.37%)
NASDAQ Volume... 1,643,812,625.00
NYSE Volume 3,647,139,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4021-2343
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 381-36
WTI crude oil: 91.43, +2.25
Gold: 1,423.70, +14.90
Silver: 22.83, +0.016
Thursday, March 17, 2011
The Expected Snap-Back Rally Occurs Right on Time
As mentioned in this space yesterday,
Well, today was it. If there's one thing the self-appointed Masters of the Universe on Wall Street and in Washington absolutely cannot tolerate, it is human events spinning beyond their ability to control them, because their power declines under such circumstances, and their sole response is to turn up the algos on their stock-buying computers and send equity prices ever further into the stratosphere of the absurd.
Today's mammoth run-up was well conceived and not derailed by any further bad news coming out of Japan, though what to do about those rebellious peasants in the Middle East still remains a problem for our sweet, elite masters. For a microcosmic view of it all, note how stocks and oil advanced smartly, with gold lagging and silver falling even more.
The elitist snobs will tolerate gold, even hoard it in times of panic, but they hate silver, because if gold is the metal of kings and monarchs, silver is the coin of gentlemen and lower rabble. The great wazoos and muckety-mucks will have nothing to do with it, which is why it continues to be supressed at every opportunity, by now, an open secret.
We'll maintain that silver is still the best investment for the current condition, despite its wild swings. Eventually, as we saw in the latter half of 2010, it will stay with and surpass gold in percentage gain.
In the meantime, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will meet with their effete counterparts in the G7 to receive approval for intervention in their rapidly-appreciating currency. In other words, with money inflows to Japan, the Yen is becoming stronger, making more capital available for eventual reconstruction efforts, while at the same time boosting the price of its exports, which is considered a negative for the globalist agenda. The Bank of Japan will seek to buy up Yen, squeezing some of the liquidity out of it and stabilizing it against other floating currencies.
It's a bit of a complex condition, causing money flow disruptions and imbalances. In the meantime, the US dollar continues to depreciate, falling to a 4-month low, dipping just below the 76 mark at 75.995 on the dollar index.
Dow 11,774.59, +161.29 (1.39%)
NASDAQ 2,636.05, +19.23 (0.73%)
S&P 500 1,273.72, +16.84 (1.34%)
NYSE Composite 8,064.86, +134.99 (1.70%)
Despite the big headline numbers, the internals were less convincing that today's rally was anything more than money-tossing, as advancing issues beat decliners, 4438-2072, though new lows retained their edge over new highs on the NASDAQ, 56-35, for the sixth consecutive session. On the NYSE, it was nearly a dead heat, with 30 new highs and 28 new lows. Over the past six session, the advantage has gone to either side an equal three times apiece.
Volume was once-again telling. Though it was slightly elevated, it by no means was in a range indicative of an all-in rally. As mentioned previously, these kinds of things are normally sharp and short, especially in the light of tomorrow's quadruple witching day for options. There was plenty of arbitrage to go around for the sharpies.
NASDAQ Volume 2,011,827,250.00
NYSE Volume 4,743,120,500
Renewed tensions in the Middle East (and, no doubt, the insatiable urge to screw motorists with high gas prices) caused a run-up in crude, which elevated $3.42, to $101.42, on the NYMEX.
Gold gathered some momentum, gaining $8.10, to $1,404.20, but silver shed 21 cents, to $34.26, a price still close to recent 31-year highs.
With all the focus on the nuclear crisis in Japan, some revealing economic figures were released over the past two days. The PPI was up a whopping 1.6% in February, with the CPI chiming in with a gain of 0.5%. Inflation, that thing Ben Bernanke says is under control, temporary and not a problem (well, maybe not for him), isn't on its way here, it has arrived.
New housing starts were at some horrible four-decade low, with building proceeding at an annualized rate of 479,000 units. Industrial production fell 0.1% in February and capacity utilization dropped to 76.3% These kinds of numbers really gives one confidence that the liars in Washington have once again dropped the ball on the economy, all along telling us that we're "recovering."
In the wild new world normal, "recovery" is tantamount to Charlie Sheen's "winning" - an innocuous word, significant of absolutely nothing.
A decline in US stock markets will only trigger more printing, more inflation and an even more unbalanced global economy, one that was already teetering on the brink of disaster, even before the Japan debacle. However, such an inordinate infusion of capital may cause a snapback rally at any time. If such occurs, it will be easy to spot, as it will be sharp and large. The other characteristic of such an event is that it will have a relatively short duration - an afternoon, a day, a session and part of another, at most.
Well, today was it. If there's one thing the self-appointed Masters of the Universe on Wall Street and in Washington absolutely cannot tolerate, it is human events spinning beyond their ability to control them, because their power declines under such circumstances, and their sole response is to turn up the algos on their stock-buying computers and send equity prices ever further into the stratosphere of the absurd.
Today's mammoth run-up was well conceived and not derailed by any further bad news coming out of Japan, though what to do about those rebellious peasants in the Middle East still remains a problem for our sweet, elite masters. For a microcosmic view of it all, note how stocks and oil advanced smartly, with gold lagging and silver falling even more.
The elitist snobs will tolerate gold, even hoard it in times of panic, but they hate silver, because if gold is the metal of kings and monarchs, silver is the coin of gentlemen and lower rabble. The great wazoos and muckety-mucks will have nothing to do with it, which is why it continues to be supressed at every opportunity, by now, an open secret.
We'll maintain that silver is still the best investment for the current condition, despite its wild swings. Eventually, as we saw in the latter half of 2010, it will stay with and surpass gold in percentage gain.
In the meantime, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will meet with their effete counterparts in the G7 to receive approval for intervention in their rapidly-appreciating currency. In other words, with money inflows to Japan, the Yen is becoming stronger, making more capital available for eventual reconstruction efforts, while at the same time boosting the price of its exports, which is considered a negative for the globalist agenda. The Bank of Japan will seek to buy up Yen, squeezing some of the liquidity out of it and stabilizing it against other floating currencies.
It's a bit of a complex condition, causing money flow disruptions and imbalances. In the meantime, the US dollar continues to depreciate, falling to a 4-month low, dipping just below the 76 mark at 75.995 on the dollar index.
Dow 11,774.59, +161.29 (1.39%)
NASDAQ 2,636.05, +19.23 (0.73%)
S&P 500 1,273.72, +16.84 (1.34%)
NYSE Composite 8,064.86, +134.99 (1.70%)
Despite the big headline numbers, the internals were less convincing that today's rally was anything more than money-tossing, as advancing issues beat decliners, 4438-2072, though new lows retained their edge over new highs on the NASDAQ, 56-35, for the sixth consecutive session. On the NYSE, it was nearly a dead heat, with 30 new highs and 28 new lows. Over the past six session, the advantage has gone to either side an equal three times apiece.
Volume was once-again telling. Though it was slightly elevated, it by no means was in a range indicative of an all-in rally. As mentioned previously, these kinds of things are normally sharp and short, especially in the light of tomorrow's quadruple witching day for options. There was plenty of arbitrage to go around for the sharpies.
NASDAQ Volume 2,011,827,250.00
NYSE Volume 4,743,120,500
Renewed tensions in the Middle East (and, no doubt, the insatiable urge to screw motorists with high gas prices) caused a run-up in crude, which elevated $3.42, to $101.42, on the NYMEX.
Gold gathered some momentum, gaining $8.10, to $1,404.20, but silver shed 21 cents, to $34.26, a price still close to recent 31-year highs.
With all the focus on the nuclear crisis in Japan, some revealing economic figures were released over the past two days. The PPI was up a whopping 1.6% in February, with the CPI chiming in with a gain of 0.5%. Inflation, that thing Ben Bernanke says is under control, temporary and not a problem (well, maybe not for him), isn't on its way here, it has arrived.
New housing starts were at some horrible four-decade low, with building proceeding at an annualized rate of 479,000 units. Industrial production fell 0.1% in February and capacity utilization dropped to 76.3% These kinds of numbers really gives one confidence that the liars in Washington have once again dropped the ball on the economy, all along telling us that we're "recovering."
In the wild new world normal, "recovery" is tantamount to Charlie Sheen's "winning" - an innocuous word, significant of absolutely nothing.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Get Away Day on Strong Dollar, Options Expiration
As is usually the case, foreign markets reacted to Wednesday's Fed statement with more conviction and honesty than US media and economic pundits. Here in the USA, the widely-accepted response to the Fed was that the statement contained nothing new, and that money would continue flowing freely, courtesy of extraordinarily low interest rates fostered by Fed accommodation.
In the Far East, Asia and Europe, the response was vastly different and it had far-ranging effects on US equities. Most foreign currencies - especially the Euro, Pound Sterling and Yen - fell sharply against the US Dollar as leaders and market participants overseas saw the Fed announcement for what it really was: an early warning that accommodative policies would soon end. With the rise of the dollar, those enganged in the risk trade (shot the dollar, long stocks) on Wall Street were stung and forced into selling off a wide swath of positions, sending the markets to their worst one-day slide in over a month.
Contributing to the decline was options expiration on Friday, which raised volatility and exacerbated a descent which really needed little help. In the horse-racing business, they call day's like these "get-away days," as owners sell off unwanted or damaged horse flesh in claiming races or to private parties, raising cash for their next foray. So it was on Wall Street today, with investors exiting unwanted positions and trimming back on strong ones. Some, however, were selling everything to cover their short positions against the US Dollar.
Dow 10,308.26, -132.86 (1.27%)
Nasdaq 2,180.05, -26.86 (1.22%)
S&P 500 1,096.07, -13.11 (1.18%)
NYSE Composite 7,063.75, -117.02 (1.63%)
The decline was broad-based, with declining issues far outpacing advancers, 4851-1780. The relationship of new highs to new lows was flattened, with the highs at 227, to 73 lows. Volume, which was extraordinarily high on the NYSE, is indicating that the selling may only have begun, though there are still enough unhedged bulls about to keep declines in order.
NYSE Volume 6,782,270,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,928,465,625
Commodities were hard hit, as is the usual case with dollar strength. Oil dropped only a penny by the close, though it traded down as much as $1.40 during the day. Gold fell $29.00, to $1,107.20, while silver dipped 49 cents to $17.20.
In general, the day's trade was tied almost exclusively to dollar strength, a counter-trend trade that may have legs. The number of short positions in the dollar is immense, and if there are continuing signs that the US economy is improving rapidly - and there are some - the unwinding of these positions and the corresponding sell-off in stocks could be profound in a classic short-squeeze, likely engineered by a concerted effort by central banks with more at stake than equity positions.
The message may become all-too-clear if central banks work together to promote dollar stability and global strength: Stocks be dammed; whole economies are of far more importance. It's a dicey situation, though a correction may not exceed a 15% in equity values, not a bad haircut, but more of a trim after the robustness during the liquidity-driven rally of the past 9 months.
Overall, the markets are functioning well, and an unwinding of the short dollar - long stocks trade may be just the tonic needed to promote overall prosperity. Wall Street needs to give some heed to Main Street, which is still suffering.
There were a number of positive signs beyond the Fed announcement from Wednesday. After new unemployment claims disappointed with a 7,000 net rise from a week ago, to 480,000, the Philadelphia Fed Index reported a healthy rise, from 16.7 in November to 20.4 in December, and the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators posted an increase of 0.9% for November, ahead of expectations (0.7%).
There is no economic data due out tomorrow and options traders must close positions by noon. There was a positive quarterly report by Research in Motion (RIMM) after the bell, which may provide some impetus to the upside in the tech space, though it appears that much of the trading for 2009 has concluded and new highs for the markets are unlikely until January.
In the Far East, Asia and Europe, the response was vastly different and it had far-ranging effects on US equities. Most foreign currencies - especially the Euro, Pound Sterling and Yen - fell sharply against the US Dollar as leaders and market participants overseas saw the Fed announcement for what it really was: an early warning that accommodative policies would soon end. With the rise of the dollar, those enganged in the risk trade (shot the dollar, long stocks) on Wall Street were stung and forced into selling off a wide swath of positions, sending the markets to their worst one-day slide in over a month.
Contributing to the decline was options expiration on Friday, which raised volatility and exacerbated a descent which really needed little help. In the horse-racing business, they call day's like these "get-away days," as owners sell off unwanted or damaged horse flesh in claiming races or to private parties, raising cash for their next foray. So it was on Wall Street today, with investors exiting unwanted positions and trimming back on strong ones. Some, however, were selling everything to cover their short positions against the US Dollar.
Dow 10,308.26, -132.86 (1.27%)
Nasdaq 2,180.05, -26.86 (1.22%)
S&P 500 1,096.07, -13.11 (1.18%)
NYSE Composite 7,063.75, -117.02 (1.63%)
The decline was broad-based, with declining issues far outpacing advancers, 4851-1780. The relationship of new highs to new lows was flattened, with the highs at 227, to 73 lows. Volume, which was extraordinarily high on the NYSE, is indicating that the selling may only have begun, though there are still enough unhedged bulls about to keep declines in order.
NYSE Volume 6,782,270,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,928,465,625
Commodities were hard hit, as is the usual case with dollar strength. Oil dropped only a penny by the close, though it traded down as much as $1.40 during the day. Gold fell $29.00, to $1,107.20, while silver dipped 49 cents to $17.20.
In general, the day's trade was tied almost exclusively to dollar strength, a counter-trend trade that may have legs. The number of short positions in the dollar is immense, and if there are continuing signs that the US economy is improving rapidly - and there are some - the unwinding of these positions and the corresponding sell-off in stocks could be profound in a classic short-squeeze, likely engineered by a concerted effort by central banks with more at stake than equity positions.
The message may become all-too-clear if central banks work together to promote dollar stability and global strength: Stocks be dammed; whole economies are of far more importance. It's a dicey situation, though a correction may not exceed a 15% in equity values, not a bad haircut, but more of a trim after the robustness during the liquidity-driven rally of the past 9 months.
Overall, the markets are functioning well, and an unwinding of the short dollar - long stocks trade may be just the tonic needed to promote overall prosperity. Wall Street needs to give some heed to Main Street, which is still suffering.
There were a number of positive signs beyond the Fed announcement from Wednesday. After new unemployment claims disappointed with a 7,000 net rise from a week ago, to 480,000, the Philadelphia Fed Index reported a healthy rise, from 16.7 in November to 20.4 in December, and the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators posted an increase of 0.9% for November, ahead of expectations (0.7%).
There is no economic data due out tomorrow and options traders must close positions by noon. There was a positive quarterly report by Research in Motion (RIMM) after the bell, which may provide some impetus to the upside in the tech space, though it appears that much of the trading for 2009 has concluded and new highs for the markets are unlikely until January.
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