Empires rise and fall. Nations traverse through periods of feast and famine, disputes with other nations, sometimes wars, and economic booms and busts. History is rife with stories detailing the life and times of nations and their leaders.
The vast majority of nations today face conditions that are far from normal.
There are at least three major migrations taking place, Africans to Europe, Chinese to Africa, and South Americans to North America. These are disruptive events, not only for the individuals involved but for the entire populations of the nations affected. Changes are gradual, mostly, but the mundane can be cracked by atrocities, absurdities and maladjustments committed by migrants in the clash of cultures.
Such conditions are prevalent in Europe and the United States, with migration reaching epidemic proportions. Indeed, President Trump himself calls the illegal immigration at the southern US border an "invasion." He is not wrong. The United States was built on the back of immigrants - legal ones - whose individual efforts and respect for their fellows built the greatest nation on Earth.
Illegal immigration is challenging the normative behavior of well-established citizens. According to certain left-leaning politicians and a corrupted media, illegal immigrants should receive free health care, free schooling, and largely, freedom from gainful employment. Ordinary, established US citizens do not receive such largesse, nor should they. Nor should the illegal entrants, who have violated our borders, broken our laws and flaunted the lifestyles and even the national flags of whence they came.
Such activity is largely disruptive to the fine working condition of a nation and the United States has been building to this state of affairs for more than 40 years. Estimates of people living in the US illegally range from 11 million to as many as 60 million people. The higher end of that range is probably closest to the truth, which is why immigrants - mostly the illegal ones - disrespect US laws, commit crimes, and take advantage of an overly generous social framework and increasingly undisciplined judicial process.
The condition in many European countries is far worse, where theft, rape, and other human crimes are committed with impunity. Often, if an immigrant is accused of crime, there exists no punishment. The system feeds upon itself and eventually fails to protect the national culture.
That is not all. Every nation on earth is controlled economically by an unelected elite, otherwise know as a central bank. In Europe, where the financial condition is dire, all nations on the continent are controlled by one central bank, the ECB. Nations have usurped their right to issue currency, having been overwhelmed by the collectivist desires of the European Union. The ECB issues fiat currency, in the form of a counterfeit euro, bolstered most recently by negative interest rates because the system is a fraud and it imploded over 10 years ago, during the Great Financial Crisis. The global central banks added untold amounts of liquidity, but it will never be enough because the crisis is one not of liquidity, but of solvency. All central banks create currency out of thin air, charge interest for its use, and, via the magic of fractional reserve lending, multiply the amount of currency in circulation by ghastly amounts.
The system is broken and will remain broken until it is completely rejected by the various populaces which employ it. That moment in time is unknowable, but it is inevitable.
There is more.
Great Britain, wise enough to keep their currency - the pound - national in nature, is attempting to exit the EU, but has been met with resistance three years since a national referendum preferred exiting, or, in common parlance, Brexit.
This is a further disruption to the status quo, and the elites will have none of it.
President Donald J. Trump, of the United States, foments more radical departures, not the least of which being his penchant for fair trade via tariffs. For three decades, the globalists have promulgated their "free trade" jingoism, which is commonly broken, cheated upon, corrupted, deceitful, unequal, and decrepit. Global trade should well collapse, and if President Trump's tariffs are the agent of change, all the better.
Thus, these days are far from normal. Superficially, people go about their business as if nothing is brewing beneath the casual calm. There will be a shock, probably multiple shocks, similar to, and many of them larger than the events of 2007-2009.
How long the politicians, bankers, and the media can keep a lid on the calamity that is bubbling up below, is anyone's guess, but their time is running short. Currencies will collapse, nations will fall, there will be wars.
It would pay to keep a sharp eye on one's assets, hard and soft. Anything that is not well-protected can be stolen away in a flash. Consider the number of security breaches at financial institutions as warnings. The money is unsafe. Hard assets are safer, but must be protected, defended.
All of this is frighteningly real and happening at breakneck speed. The usual media sources will not tell you the truth. You must find it on your own.
Ten years is a long time for the central banks and their friends to keep the spinning plates of a corrupt, defunct global financial construct from experiencing inertia and crashing to the floor, shattering into millions of tiny, unrecoverable pieces.
The spinning will end. Everything will change.
At the Close, Monday, August 12, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,897.71, -389.73 (-1.48%)
NASDAQ: 7,863.41, -95.73 (-1.20%)
S&P 500: 2,883.09, -35.56 (-1.22%)
NYSE Composite: 12,586.24, -162.18 (-1.27%)
Showing posts with label hard assets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hard assets. Show all posts
Monday, August 12, 2019
Sunday, July 17, 2016
Weekend Edition: Historic Rally Stalls At End Of Week
Anticlimactic was Friday's market action after a sustained two-week, post-Brexit collapse rally sent the Dow and S&P 500 to new all-time highs.
Stocks finished with one of their their weakest performances of the month, though it may just be a pause in an otherwise relentless advance led by central bank buying.
Yes, you're reading that correctly; central banks were the leading participants in the post-Brexit rally, preventing what may have turned into a widespread financial panic had the BOJ and ECB not intervened with either direct purchases of stocks or the same via proxies.
This leads to a time-worn dilemma in market confidence otherwise bandied about as moral hazard.
It's the same as fixing horse races or weighting the balls on a roulette wheel. Rigged financial markets will sooner or later be found to be lacking in both stability and longevity, which, when dealing with life-spanning investments touted by the major brokerages, are - or should be - two major pillars of strength.
If central banks continue to play fast and loose with not only monetary policy and begin to dabble in fiscal policy (well underway) and overtly entering trading markets (also pretty obvious), it may be only a matter of time before the curtain is rolled back and the man in the booth behind the controls is revealed as a faker, a fraud, a charlatan, and the foolishly following investors taken in by the scheme.
In simple terms, caution continues to be the best friend of anyone with reasonable means. Hard assets appear once again to be not only safe, but sure.
Many in the financial arena thought that the world was ending in 2008, though afterthought now is clear that an era of unbridled intervention by central banks was only just beginning.
How and when it ends are open questions, but certainly, valuations are stretched to extremes, data - along with stock prices - is being manipulated, and individuals investors have long ago headed for safer havens.
The game may go on for years more, which is likely the path of least resistance since there's so much riding on a continuation of current politics and economics. The thought that the larger the debt and fraud (and both are enormous), the greater the fall may or may not be a truism.
What's working now may be reversed in the near future. One glance at YTD charts of either gold or silver tells you that a paradigm shift may be already underway.
Friday's Closing Numbers:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,516.55, +10.14 (0.05%)
NASDAQ
5,029.59, -4.47 (-0.09%)
S&P 500
2,161.74, -2.01 (-0.09%)
NYSE Composite
10,773.12, -13.51 (-0.13%)
For the Week:
Dow: +369.81 (+2.04%)
S&P 500: +31.84 (+1.49%)
NASDAQ: +72.83 (+1.47%)
Stocks finished with one of their their weakest performances of the month, though it may just be a pause in an otherwise relentless advance led by central bank buying.
Yes, you're reading that correctly; central banks were the leading participants in the post-Brexit rally, preventing what may have turned into a widespread financial panic had the BOJ and ECB not intervened with either direct purchases of stocks or the same via proxies.
This leads to a time-worn dilemma in market confidence otherwise bandied about as moral hazard.
It's the same as fixing horse races or weighting the balls on a roulette wheel. Rigged financial markets will sooner or later be found to be lacking in both stability and longevity, which, when dealing with life-spanning investments touted by the major brokerages, are - or should be - two major pillars of strength.
If central banks continue to play fast and loose with not only monetary policy and begin to dabble in fiscal policy (well underway) and overtly entering trading markets (also pretty obvious), it may be only a matter of time before the curtain is rolled back and the man in the booth behind the controls is revealed as a faker, a fraud, a charlatan, and the foolishly following investors taken in by the scheme.
In simple terms, caution continues to be the best friend of anyone with reasonable means. Hard assets appear once again to be not only safe, but sure.
Many in the financial arena thought that the world was ending in 2008, though afterthought now is clear that an era of unbridled intervention by central banks was only just beginning.
How and when it ends are open questions, but certainly, valuations are stretched to extremes, data - along with stock prices - is being manipulated, and individuals investors have long ago headed for safer havens.
The game may go on for years more, which is likely the path of least resistance since there's so much riding on a continuation of current politics and economics. The thought that the larger the debt and fraud (and both are enormous), the greater the fall may or may not be a truism.
What's working now may be reversed in the near future. One glance at YTD charts of either gold or silver tells you that a paradigm shift may be already underway.
Friday's Closing Numbers:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,516.55, +10.14 (0.05%)
NASDAQ
5,029.59, -4.47 (-0.09%)
S&P 500
2,161.74, -2.01 (-0.09%)
NYSE Composite
10,773.12, -13.51 (-0.13%)
For the Week:
Dow: +369.81 (+2.04%)
S&P 500: +31.84 (+1.49%)
NASDAQ: +72.83 (+1.47%)
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Silver Pops Above $17/oz.; Intel Slashes 11,000 Jobs; Markets Steady
...and the beat goes on.
How long will it take before the majority of traders realize they've been fed a pack of lies in non-GAAP earnings reports, loaded with non-recurring, one-time charges, which oddly keep cropping up every other quarter, and profits that are the result of stock buybacks (fewer shares equals higher EPS)?
For most, the answer is "too long." Since Wall Street can only make money if stocks appear to be good investments - and that concept is quickly fleeing the coop - and have the confidence of investors, the con game of lowered expectations and "beats" will keep the dancers dancing well past midnight and into the wee hours of the morning.
When the party does finally end, there are going to be a lot of long faces, hung-over losers and poor explanations for why the market simply didn't keep going up forever and ever and ever. Central bankers the world over will be falling over each other before that happens, though, because where goes Wall Street, so goes central bank - and thus, fiat money - credibility, and that must be maintained at all costs, which just might include printing trillions and trillions more dollars, euros and yen before the money finds its justifiable price, that being the cost of ink on paper, or, essentially, nothing.
So, when pensioners find their nest eggs shattered and barren, and are being told that the paper promises are not going to be honored, it will be too late for the masses.
Only those free of debt, with some reasonable amount of hard assets - land, building, machinery, tools, art, gemstones, silver, and gold - will be whole and beholding to nobody. The rest will have to fend for themselves and their families as best as they can.
It is against this backdrop that the recent rise in the value of silver becomes important. Gold's little brother has risen from an even $14/ounce to close today just under 17 dollars an ounce, making it the best-performing asset of the year, passing by gold in the process.
There are numerous reasons that silver has been set afire in recent days. Less than a week ago, Deustche Bank agreed to settle lawsuits claiming the bank had engaged in price manipulation of silver as well as gold. This admission really put the afterburners to an already hopped-up commodity. Gold has been slower to respond, likely because silver had been manipulated much lower for much longer.
Traditionally, silver had been valued in relation to gold at anywhere from 16 to 20 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. Earlier this year, the gold:silver ratio screamed above 80, signifying that silver was likely undervalued by a magnitude of four. In other words, the true value of silver must come back to historical norms, either by the price of gold falling dramatically, or the price of silver rising astronomically (i.e., silver, at a 16:1 ratio to gold, would be selling for $78/ounce, with gold at $1250, where it currently resides).
What is a more plausible outcome is that - and this process could take several years, maybe as many as ten - both gold and silver will rise, though silver will rise at a much faster pace, eventually coming in line at 20:1 per ounce of gold. Both precious metals will see enormous advances in coming years as currencies depreciate and eventually die, paramount among them the Japanese Yen, the Euro, and the US Dollar, since the currencies of the most developed nations are also the most at risk, due to many factors, not the least of which being the excessive levels of debt held by the general public and government.
The Fed, the ECB and the BOJ will print to infinity, eventually bankrupting their counties and their currencies. Holders of gold and silver will be rewarded for both their vision and their patience.
The process has begun, but only those willing to hold an asset that offers no interest or rate of return, but also does not carry any counter-party risk, will prosper. Dollars, Yen and Euro will eventually devalue and finally default.
In the words of James Pierpont (J.P.) Morgan, spoken in 1912, a year before he helped launch the Federal Reserve:
Today's closing figures:
S&P 500: 2,100.80, +6.46 (0.31%)
Dow: 18,053.60, +49.44 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,940.33, -19.69 (0.40%)
Crude Oil 42.46 +3.08% Gold 1,251.80 +1.36% EUR/USD 1.1359 +0.41% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +0.56% Corn 383.50 +0.66% Copper 2.23 +2.84% Silver 16.96 +4.35% Natural Gas 2.09 +7.63% Russell 2000 1,140.23 +0.08% VIX 13.24 -0.82% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4394 +0.82% USD/JPY 109.1975 +0.33%
How long will it take before the majority of traders realize they've been fed a pack of lies in non-GAAP earnings reports, loaded with non-recurring, one-time charges, which oddly keep cropping up every other quarter, and profits that are the result of stock buybacks (fewer shares equals higher EPS)?
For most, the answer is "too long." Since Wall Street can only make money if stocks appear to be good investments - and that concept is quickly fleeing the coop - and have the confidence of investors, the con game of lowered expectations and "beats" will keep the dancers dancing well past midnight and into the wee hours of the morning.
When the party does finally end, there are going to be a lot of long faces, hung-over losers and poor explanations for why the market simply didn't keep going up forever and ever and ever. Central bankers the world over will be falling over each other before that happens, though, because where goes Wall Street, so goes central bank - and thus, fiat money - credibility, and that must be maintained at all costs, which just might include printing trillions and trillions more dollars, euros and yen before the money finds its justifiable price, that being the cost of ink on paper, or, essentially, nothing.
So, when pensioners find their nest eggs shattered and barren, and are being told that the paper promises are not going to be honored, it will be too late for the masses.
Only those free of debt, with some reasonable amount of hard assets - land, building, machinery, tools, art, gemstones, silver, and gold - will be whole and beholding to nobody. The rest will have to fend for themselves and their families as best as they can.
It is against this backdrop that the recent rise in the value of silver becomes important. Gold's little brother has risen from an even $14/ounce to close today just under 17 dollars an ounce, making it the best-performing asset of the year, passing by gold in the process.
There are numerous reasons that silver has been set afire in recent days. Less than a week ago, Deustche Bank agreed to settle lawsuits claiming the bank had engaged in price manipulation of silver as well as gold. This admission really put the afterburners to an already hopped-up commodity. Gold has been slower to respond, likely because silver had been manipulated much lower for much longer.
Traditionally, silver had been valued in relation to gold at anywhere from 16 to 20 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. Earlier this year, the gold:silver ratio screamed above 80, signifying that silver was likely undervalued by a magnitude of four. In other words, the true value of silver must come back to historical norms, either by the price of gold falling dramatically, or the price of silver rising astronomically (i.e., silver, at a 16:1 ratio to gold, would be selling for $78/ounce, with gold at $1250, where it currently resides).
What is a more plausible outcome is that - and this process could take several years, maybe as many as ten - both gold and silver will rise, though silver will rise at a much faster pace, eventually coming in line at 20:1 per ounce of gold. Both precious metals will see enormous advances in coming years as currencies depreciate and eventually die, paramount among them the Japanese Yen, the Euro, and the US Dollar, since the currencies of the most developed nations are also the most at risk, due to many factors, not the least of which being the excessive levels of debt held by the general public and government.
The Fed, the ECB and the BOJ will print to infinity, eventually bankrupting their counties and their currencies. Holders of gold and silver will be rewarded for both their vision and their patience.
The process has begun, but only those willing to hold an asset that offers no interest or rate of return, but also does not carry any counter-party risk, will prosper. Dollars, Yen and Euro will eventually devalue and finally default.
In the words of James Pierpont (J.P.) Morgan, spoken in 1912, a year before he helped launch the Federal Reserve:
Gold is Money. Everything Else is Credit.
Today's closing figures:
S&P 500: 2,100.80, +6.46 (0.31%)
Dow: 18,053.60, +49.44 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,940.33, -19.69 (0.40%)
Crude Oil 42.46 +3.08% Gold 1,251.80 +1.36% EUR/USD 1.1359 +0.41% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +0.56% Corn 383.50 +0.66% Copper 2.23 +2.84% Silver 16.96 +4.35% Natural Gas 2.09 +7.63% Russell 2000 1,140.23 +0.08% VIX 13.24 -0.82% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4394 +0.82% USD/JPY 109.1975 +0.33%
Friday, April 13, 2012
China's Slowing GDP a Symptom of Faltering Global Economy
Yesterday's rumor that China would report first quarter GDP of upwards of 9% growth - which fueled the ramp-up in stocks on Thursday - turned into today's reality that China's economy is slowing, and quickly.
When the news that China's economy grew less than expected - by 8.1%, the slowest rate of growth in the world's most populous country in nearly three years - traders in Europe and the US could not sell shares of selected equities quickly enough. By the time US markets opened, futures had cratered to their lowest levels of the morning and the selling continued throughout the lackluster session.
By he close, Thursday's gains were all but eviscerated, leaving investors to wonder what comes next in terms of the global economic condition.
Also, prior to the open, two major banks, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells-Fargo (WFC) announced first quarter earnings. Both beat estimates, but the stocks sold off on the reports, many analysts citing bookkeeping chicanery for the better-than-expected returns.
By the end of the day, JPM dropped 3.64%, while WFC lost 3.47%. Both stocks are near 52-week highs and are currently looking like serious short-sell candidates.
The Chinese data should not have come as a surprise. Since most of China's recent growth has been tied to exports - mainly to the US and Europe - slack demand has crimped output and China's nascent middle class is not yet robost enough to fill in the growth gap. Concerns over the debt condition of the Eurozone have not abated, and, in fact, may be exacerbated as Spain's situation worsens.
Sooner or later, principals are going to have to come to terms with the global condition of faltering sovereign nations, an excessive overhang of debt and limited solutions from fiscal and monetary authorities. The search for yield has many investors scrambling again into dividend-paying stocks or the marginal returns of US treasuries, which rallied once more, the ten-year dipping to 1.99% at the close of trading.
In such an environment, there is no safe harbor except for hard assets, though even oil, gold and silver were pounded lower on the news.
The major averages finished the week with losses of around two percent. The idea that stocks sporting solid gains for the first quarter have been selling off nevertheless, portends more downside for equity investors.
Deflation is a cruel environment, for which most in the financial arena are ill-prepared. The global economy is close to stall speed, which, for most ordinary people, is bliss, though the highly-leveraged worldwide financial system is surely strained at present.
Dow 12,849.67, -136.91 (1.05%)
NASDAQ 3,011.33, -44.22 (1.45%)
S&P 500 1,370.27, -17.30 (1.25%)
NYSE Composite 7,937.65, -102.31 (1.27%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,437,334,625
NYSE Volume 3,433,928,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1332-4234
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 95-69
WTI crude oil: 102.83, -0.81
Gold: 1,660.20, -20.40
Silver: 31.39, -1.14
When the news that China's economy grew less than expected - by 8.1%, the slowest rate of growth in the world's most populous country in nearly three years - traders in Europe and the US could not sell shares of selected equities quickly enough. By the time US markets opened, futures had cratered to their lowest levels of the morning and the selling continued throughout the lackluster session.
By he close, Thursday's gains were all but eviscerated, leaving investors to wonder what comes next in terms of the global economic condition.
Also, prior to the open, two major banks, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells-Fargo (WFC) announced first quarter earnings. Both beat estimates, but the stocks sold off on the reports, many analysts citing bookkeeping chicanery for the better-than-expected returns.
By the end of the day, JPM dropped 3.64%, while WFC lost 3.47%. Both stocks are near 52-week highs and are currently looking like serious short-sell candidates.
The Chinese data should not have come as a surprise. Since most of China's recent growth has been tied to exports - mainly to the US and Europe - slack demand has crimped output and China's nascent middle class is not yet robost enough to fill in the growth gap. Concerns over the debt condition of the Eurozone have not abated, and, in fact, may be exacerbated as Spain's situation worsens.
Sooner or later, principals are going to have to come to terms with the global condition of faltering sovereign nations, an excessive overhang of debt and limited solutions from fiscal and monetary authorities. The search for yield has many investors scrambling again into dividend-paying stocks or the marginal returns of US treasuries, which rallied once more, the ten-year dipping to 1.99% at the close of trading.
In such an environment, there is no safe harbor except for hard assets, though even oil, gold and silver were pounded lower on the news.
The major averages finished the week with losses of around two percent. The idea that stocks sporting solid gains for the first quarter have been selling off nevertheless, portends more downside for equity investors.
Deflation is a cruel environment, for which most in the financial arena are ill-prepared. The global economy is close to stall speed, which, for most ordinary people, is bliss, though the highly-leveraged worldwide financial system is surely strained at present.
Dow 12,849.67, -136.91 (1.05%)
NASDAQ 3,011.33, -44.22 (1.45%)
S&P 500 1,370.27, -17.30 (1.25%)
NYSE Composite 7,937.65, -102.31 (1.27%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,437,334,625
NYSE Volume 3,433,928,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1332-4234
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 95-69
WTI crude oil: 102.83, -0.81
Gold: 1,660.20, -20.40
Silver: 31.39, -1.14
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