Though not quite as quiet as last week, trading on US exchanges has been slow as the year winds down and the holiday season approaches.
What differentiates this week from last is the tenor of the trade, noticeably negative, with all of the major indices lower heading into Friday. The losses have not been significant, but Thursday marked three straight sessions in the red.
Losses have been very limited, however, with the Dow leading the downside, off by 0.81% through Thursday. Even a modest gain on Friday would push the averages back into record territory. The S&P 500 needs a gain of just 20 points to break out to new all-time highs.
There is still abundant interest in US-China trade relations, though the market has grown a bit weary of the on-again, off-again nature of the negotiations and is likely pricing in a positive outcome. This stalemate of sorts could last another year, with the Chinese playing the waiting game.
President Trump is up for re-election in November, 2020, and Chinese leaders are watching political developments in the US with jaded eyes. having Trump out of the way would suit their purposes. Getting back to the monstrous trade deficit imposed upon the US over the years seems to be the ultimate aim for China. Nobody wants to give up on a good thing, and trade relations with the US have been nothing short of spectacular for China over the past 30 years. Trump vowed to put an end to those practices in his election campaign and he's stuck to his guns, dealing the Chinese a hand they thought they'd never have to play.
A negative view of the ongoing feud would be an escalation of tariffs, leading to an overall slowdown and possible military actions. No wonder the market is pricing in a positive conclusion, because the alternative is more disruptive than anybody would ever hope.
At the Close, Thursday, November 21, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,766.29, -54.80 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 8,506.21, -20.52 (-0.24%)
S&P 500: 3,103.54, -4.92 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 13,406.42, -12.89 (-0.10%)
Showing posts with label deficit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label deficit. Show all posts
Friday, November 22, 2019
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
Stubborn Dow Remains Range-Bound; NASDAQ Dips
Since March 9, the Dow has traded in a fairly tight range - considering the time elapsed (nearly six months) - of just more than 1400 points, or less than six percent of total market value.
Recently, it has been trading near the upper end of this range, but has repeatedly failed to surpass the previous interim high and is still another 1400-1500 points away from January's all-time high of 26,616.71.
The range, 23,924.98 - 25,335.74, has been wide enough to offer hope to both bulls and bears, though neither a breakout nor a breakdown has occurred, with much of the betting money on the latter. Current and prior sentiment sees a second half slowdown, with the Trump tax cuts already measured in, inflation becoming more of an issue, and the tariff tug-fo-war on the world stage only in the early stages.
Thus, seasoned investors are wary of sudden impulse moves such as today's and also have an eye toward the political spectrum, midterm elections and what now appears to be a runaway federal budget-busting deficit for the current fiscal year. These are the factors contributing to the skeptical view, while the more subdued bull case rests largely on the employment picture. Americans are well-employed at present, even though labor force participation remains near record lows.
Inside the demographics of the United States, there exists a virtuous cycle, in which retiring baby boomers give up jobs to millennials and Generation Xers, while spending their retirement incomes without a care. There's plenty of money to go around, though, with a country as large and diverse as the US, it's difficult to pigeonhole any particular stocks that should benefit the greatest.
Consumer staples are and have been the safest bets along with energy, tech, and basic materials, but the gains have been paltry outside the smoking tech sector. A diversified portfolio is probably the best insurance against a market rout, but being in the right stocks can prove tricky, if not altogether impossible to attain anything better than the average index fund.
On the day, the Dow and NASDAQ diverged, a sign that everything is not in sync, and that issues remain unresolved, though that is a normal case and not anything about which to be overly pessimistic.
With crosswinds at the crossroads of prosperity and desperation, there's more than ample rationale for either argument.
This remains a sit-tight-and-hold-cash condition.
Dow Jones Industrial Average July Scorecard:
At the Close, Tuesday, July 24, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,241.94, +197.65 (+0.79%)
NASDAQ: 7,840.77, -1.10 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 2,820.40, +13.42 (+0.48%)
NYSE Composite: 12,847.49, +53.44 (+0.42%)
Recently, it has been trading near the upper end of this range, but has repeatedly failed to surpass the previous interim high and is still another 1400-1500 points away from January's all-time high of 26,616.71.
The range, 23,924.98 - 25,335.74, has been wide enough to offer hope to both bulls and bears, though neither a breakout nor a breakdown has occurred, with much of the betting money on the latter. Current and prior sentiment sees a second half slowdown, with the Trump tax cuts already measured in, inflation becoming more of an issue, and the tariff tug-fo-war on the world stage only in the early stages.
Thus, seasoned investors are wary of sudden impulse moves such as today's and also have an eye toward the political spectrum, midterm elections and what now appears to be a runaway federal budget-busting deficit for the current fiscal year. These are the factors contributing to the skeptical view, while the more subdued bull case rests largely on the employment picture. Americans are well-employed at present, even though labor force participation remains near record lows.
Inside the demographics of the United States, there exists a virtuous cycle, in which retiring baby boomers give up jobs to millennials and Generation Xers, while spending their retirement incomes without a care. There's plenty of money to go around, though, with a country as large and diverse as the US, it's difficult to pigeonhole any particular stocks that should benefit the greatest.
Consumer staples are and have been the safest bets along with energy, tech, and basic materials, but the gains have been paltry outside the smoking tech sector. A diversified portfolio is probably the best insurance against a market rout, but being in the right stocks can prove tricky, if not altogether impossible to attain anything better than the average index fund.
On the day, the Dow and NASDAQ diverged, a sign that everything is not in sync, and that issues remain unresolved, though that is a normal case and not anything about which to be overly pessimistic.
With crosswinds at the crossroads of prosperity and desperation, there's more than ample rationale for either argument.
This remains a sit-tight-and-hold-cash condition.
Dow Jones Industrial Average July Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 7/2/18 | 24,307.18 | +35.77 | +35.77 |
| 7/3/18 | 24,174.82 | -132.36 | -96.59 |
| 7/5/18 | 24,345.44 | +181.92 | +85.33 |
| 7/6/18 | 24,456.48 | +99.74 | +185.07 |
| 7/9/18 | 24,776.59 | +320.11 | +505.18 |
| 7/10/18 | 24,919.66 | +143.07 | +648.25 |
| 7/11/18 | 24,700.45 | -219.21 | +429.04 |
| 7/12/18 | 24,924.89 | +224.44 | +653.48 |
| 7/13/18 | 25,019.41 | +94.52 | +748.00 |
| 7/16/18 | 25,064.36 | +44.95 | +792.95 |
| 7/17/18 | 25,119.89 | +55.53 | +848.48 |
| 7/18/18 | 25,199.29 | +79.40 | +927.88 |
| 7/19/18 | 25,064.50 | -134.79 | +793.09 |
| 7/20/18 | 25,058.12 | -6.38 | +786.71 |
| 7/23/18 | 25,044.29 | -13.83 | +772.88 |
| 7/24/18 | 25,241.94 | +197.65 | +970.53 |
At the Close, Tuesday, July 24, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,241.94, +197.65 (+0.79%)
NASDAQ: 7,840.77, -1.10 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 2,820.40, +13.42 (+0.48%)
NYSE Composite: 12,847.49, +53.44 (+0.42%)
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Bad News Sends Stocks, Oil, Higher; Silver Outshines All
Stocks moved higher based on nothing other than an "informed diplomatic source" that said Russia and Saudi Arabia had agreed to freeze oil production. Along with stocks, oil futures moved notably higher, topping $41.50 a barrel.
The news was taken with so much enthusiasm that traders apparently forgot that there exists a worldwide glut of crude oil larger than any before it. They also disregarded obvious topping patterns in stocks and upcoming earnings reports, including those of the big banks which happen to be saddled with bad oil loans.
News that the IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2016 for the fourth time in a year, backing it off to 3.2%, was also disregarded, as was the US March budget deficit came in at double what it was last year, a whopping $108 billion.
In an unrelated move, silver continued its non-stop ascent, closing in New York at its highest price since late October of 2015, topping $16/ounce for the first time this year. The price of silver has risen more than 8% in the past week.
S&P 500: 2,061.72, +19.73 (0.97%)
Dow: 17,721.25, +164.84 (0.94%)
NASDAQ: 4,872.09, +38.69 (0.80%)
Crude Oil 41.56 +2.97% Gold 1,257.40 -0.05% EUR/USD 1.1390 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +3.31% Corn 361.25 +1.26% Copper 2.15 +2.85% Silver 16.22 +1.50% Natural Gas 2.02 +5.60% Russell 2000 1,105.71 +1.04% VIX 14.85 -8.67% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.24% USD/JPY 108.5655 +0.57%
The news was taken with so much enthusiasm that traders apparently forgot that there exists a worldwide glut of crude oil larger than any before it. They also disregarded obvious topping patterns in stocks and upcoming earnings reports, including those of the big banks which happen to be saddled with bad oil loans.
News that the IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2016 for the fourth time in a year, backing it off to 3.2%, was also disregarded, as was the US March budget deficit came in at double what it was last year, a whopping $108 billion.
In an unrelated move, silver continued its non-stop ascent, closing in New York at its highest price since late October of 2015, topping $16/ounce for the first time this year. The price of silver has risen more than 8% in the past week.
S&P 500: 2,061.72, +19.73 (0.97%)
Dow: 17,721.25, +164.84 (0.94%)
NASDAQ: 4,872.09, +38.69 (0.80%)
Crude Oil 41.56 +2.97% Gold 1,257.40 -0.05% EUR/USD 1.1390 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +3.31% Corn 361.25 +1.26% Copper 2.15 +2.85% Silver 16.22 +1.50% Natural Gas 2.02 +5.60% Russell 2000 1,105.71 +1.04% VIX 14.85 -8.67% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.24% USD/JPY 108.5655 +0.57%
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