The first week of the final month of 2019 was a deviation from the general theme of 2019. Stocks were sold with reckless abandon, as were bonds, with the 10-year note bounding back to yield 1.83% - though higher during the day - a level not visited since mid-November.
The bond market felt more like churning than the start of actual long-term selling, but stocks had a different sense about them. Bad news on the US-China trade situation has the financial world in a near-panic as the deadline approaches for added tariffs to be applied on Chinese exports to the US. Additionally, President Trump reimposed tariffs on steel from Argentina and Brazil, citing the two South American countries' recent currency devaluations as reason for slapping on the tariffs "immediately."
While the steel tariffs boosted shares of US steel producers, it only exacerbated the unease surrounding the wider Chinese issue and sent stocks into a day-long tailspin. Selling was the order of the day globally, as bourses from Japan, China, Europe and the Americas all suffered declines with the sourness continuing into Tuesday as trade resumed Tuesday in international markets.
While the focus may currently be on trade and tariffs, there appears to be more to the sudden swing from buying to selling than just the movement of goods around the planet. Recall that Friday (ubiquitously know as Black Friday in the US) also witnessed declines, not the usual euphoria associated with the start of the holiday shopping season. Other concerns are various recent populist uprising in places as diverse as Hong Kong, Iran, Lebanon, India and elsewhere. Besides, it is December, so one can safely assume that any concerted selling is going to be enhanced by year-end profit-taking.
While the mainstream (now nearly completely fake) media will focus on the stock markets' generous advances during the year, they will also conveniently gloss over the dual declines from October and December of 2018, which, taken in such context, renders gains from September 2018 as practically nil.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for instance, is up only 1000 points since mid-September of 2018, accounting for a gain of less than a half percent. The NASDAQ has tacked on about 450 points since August of last year, while the S&P 500, at current levels, has added just 183 points over the past 15 months, the point being that stocks, though they've recently made new all-time highs, are really not much further ahead than they were more than a year ago, but the media will remind us only of what's happened in the current calendar year, which might be a tad misleading.
In any case, internationally, stocks are being whacked again Tuesday morning and US futures are looking pretty dismal, with Dow futures down nearly 300 points less than an hour prior to the opening bell.
Corporate profits have been underwhelming, to say the least, for the past few quarters, so some fundamental shift may be underway. If a flight into the safely of bonds develops, that will be a sign that the stock market is going to finish off the year on a negative note, though there's always the possibility of a Sant Calus rally the week between Christmas and New Year to save everybody's bacon.
At the Close, Monday, December 2, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,783.04, -268.37 (-0.96%)
NASDAQ: 8,567.99, -97.48 (-1.12%)
S&P 500: 3,113.87, -27.11 (-0.86%)
NYSE Composite: 13,448.26, -96.95 (-0.72%)
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Friday, November 22, 2019
Stocks Lose Ground As US-China Trade Deal Stalls
Though not quite as quiet as last week, trading on US exchanges has been slow as the year winds down and the holiday season approaches.
What differentiates this week from last is the tenor of the trade, noticeably negative, with all of the major indices lower heading into Friday. The losses have not been significant, but Thursday marked three straight sessions in the red.
Losses have been very limited, however, with the Dow leading the downside, off by 0.81% through Thursday. Even a modest gain on Friday would push the averages back into record territory. The S&P 500 needs a gain of just 20 points to break out to new all-time highs.
There is still abundant interest in US-China trade relations, though the market has grown a bit weary of the on-again, off-again nature of the negotiations and is likely pricing in a positive outcome. This stalemate of sorts could last another year, with the Chinese playing the waiting game.
President Trump is up for re-election in November, 2020, and Chinese leaders are watching political developments in the US with jaded eyes. having Trump out of the way would suit their purposes. Getting back to the monstrous trade deficit imposed upon the US over the years seems to be the ultimate aim for China. Nobody wants to give up on a good thing, and trade relations with the US have been nothing short of spectacular for China over the past 30 years. Trump vowed to put an end to those practices in his election campaign and he's stuck to his guns, dealing the Chinese a hand they thought they'd never have to play.
A negative view of the ongoing feud would be an escalation of tariffs, leading to an overall slowdown and possible military actions. No wonder the market is pricing in a positive conclusion, because the alternative is more disruptive than anybody would ever hope.
At the Close, Thursday, November 21, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,766.29, -54.80 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 8,506.21, -20.52 (-0.24%)
S&P 500: 3,103.54, -4.92 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 13,406.42, -12.89 (-0.10%)
What differentiates this week from last is the tenor of the trade, noticeably negative, with all of the major indices lower heading into Friday. The losses have not been significant, but Thursday marked three straight sessions in the red.
Losses have been very limited, however, with the Dow leading the downside, off by 0.81% through Thursday. Even a modest gain on Friday would push the averages back into record territory. The S&P 500 needs a gain of just 20 points to break out to new all-time highs.
There is still abundant interest in US-China trade relations, though the market has grown a bit weary of the on-again, off-again nature of the negotiations and is likely pricing in a positive outcome. This stalemate of sorts could last another year, with the Chinese playing the waiting game.
President Trump is up for re-election in November, 2020, and Chinese leaders are watching political developments in the US with jaded eyes. having Trump out of the way would suit their purposes. Getting back to the monstrous trade deficit imposed upon the US over the years seems to be the ultimate aim for China. Nobody wants to give up on a good thing, and trade relations with the US have been nothing short of spectacular for China over the past 30 years. Trump vowed to put an end to those practices in his election campaign and he's stuck to his guns, dealing the Chinese a hand they thought they'd never have to play.
A negative view of the ongoing feud would be an escalation of tariffs, leading to an overall slowdown and possible military actions. No wonder the market is pricing in a positive conclusion, because the alternative is more disruptive than anybody would ever hope.
At the Close, Thursday, November 21, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,766.29, -54.80 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 8,506.21, -20.52 (-0.24%)
S&P 500: 3,103.54, -4.92 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 13,406.42, -12.89 (-0.10%)
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Disturbance in the Force? Stocks Suffer Losses
Dow Components Apple (AAPL) and Home Depot (HD) sent the Dow Industrials lower, dragging the tech sector, NASDAQ and S&P 500 down with it.
With third quarter results not as good as expectations, there's pressure on US stocks, especially now that China has balked again at phase one of the proposed on-again, off-again trade deal between the globe's two largest economies.
Also weighing on equites are repeated stories of recession fears from Europe, especially in the major economies: Germany, France, and Italy. Brexit is still not resolved and there's renewed optimism among remainers that the result of the 2016 referendum might still be overturned. As Europe is one of the major US trading powers, what happens over the pond affects many companies in the US.
Bond yields dipped again, especially at the long end of the treasury curve, with the 10-year note falling to a yield of 1.74%. With the Fed now officially on hold, bond vigilantes may have their day in the sun, pushing yields down to near record levels if the holiday season doesn't produce a bounty of stock buys.
Markets are at an unusual crossroads with many swirling stories that have the potential to send equities flying in either direction. What looks like a sideways trading regimen may hold sway the remainder of the year, though more and more economists and predictors are saying that a recession in the United States is not a foregone conclusion for 2020.
Third quarter results from a plethora of companies are now in the books and though most beat expectations, such were lowered and cannot be counted on to produce a buying frenzy. A repeat of last year's monumental losses in December could reoccur, though the Fed and nefarious forces behind the scenes have the power to deflect losses and turn indices around on various dimes.
Control is in the hands of the algorithms and central bankers. Don't expect much downside as long as hope for a trade deal remains present.
At the Close, Wednesday, November 20, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,821.09, -112.93 (-0.40%)
NASDAQ: 8,526.73, -43.93 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 3,108.46, -11.72 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 13,419.30, -47.05 (-0.35%)
With third quarter results not as good as expectations, there's pressure on US stocks, especially now that China has balked again at phase one of the proposed on-again, off-again trade deal between the globe's two largest economies.
Also weighing on equites are repeated stories of recession fears from Europe, especially in the major economies: Germany, France, and Italy. Brexit is still not resolved and there's renewed optimism among remainers that the result of the 2016 referendum might still be overturned. As Europe is one of the major US trading powers, what happens over the pond affects many companies in the US.
Bond yields dipped again, especially at the long end of the treasury curve, with the 10-year note falling to a yield of 1.74%. With the Fed now officially on hold, bond vigilantes may have their day in the sun, pushing yields down to near record levels if the holiday season doesn't produce a bounty of stock buys.
Markets are at an unusual crossroads with many swirling stories that have the potential to send equities flying in either direction. What looks like a sideways trading regimen may hold sway the remainder of the year, though more and more economists and predictors are saying that a recession in the United States is not a foregone conclusion for 2020.
Third quarter results from a plethora of companies are now in the books and though most beat expectations, such were lowered and cannot be counted on to produce a buying frenzy. A repeat of last year's monumental losses in December could reoccur, though the Fed and nefarious forces behind the scenes have the power to deflect losses and turn indices around on various dimes.
Control is in the hands of the algorithms and central bankers. Don't expect much downside as long as hope for a trade deal remains present.
At the Close, Wednesday, November 20, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,821.09, -112.93 (-0.40%)
NASDAQ: 8,526.73, -43.93 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 3,108.46, -11.72 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 13,419.30, -47.05 (-0.35%)
Thursday, November 14, 2019
This Is About As Dull A Market As There Ever Has Been
It's been a slow week.
"How slow is it," the crowd chants, Johnny Carson style.
Well, the Dow is up 102 points as of Wednesday's close. That's the good news, and it's about as good as it gets. The NASDAQ, in three sessions, has gained six points, the S&P just under one point, and the NYSE Composite is down 22.75 points.
That's how slow it is.
As for the causes, anybody's guess will do, but the most likely candidates are uncertainty over just about everything, from impeachment hearings in the House of Representatives, to ongoing and increasingly-violent protests in Hong Kong, to backtracking in US-China trade relations, to just plain old vanilla market overbought conditions. It's not like the economy is booming (1.9% 3rd quarter GDP), or that most of the fuel has been courtesy of the Federal Reserve (another $200 billion added to their balance sheet in just the past two months), or that stock buybacks have been responsible for more than 60% of the gains over the past five years (maybe).
There are ample reasons for people to take a look-and-see stance. Just in case nobody's noticed, it's almost the end of 2019, allocations have already been made and funds are sitting on their hands, lest they get burned hitting the BUY button before year end.
If the New York stock exchange shut down for a day or two, or even a week or two, would it matter to anybody but the ultra-wealthy? Probably not, and, since the ultra-wealthy are, ahem, ultra-wealthy, why should they be buying stocks at nosebleed levels anyhow? They're waiting for the next greater fool, so they can sell some of their holdings at nice profits.
Thus, it's a simple assumption to make that if there are few buyers, and ample sellers who are holding out for the best prices, not much is going to happen, and that's why this week has been so slow. Whether that translates into a major downdraft, as many have been predicting once new highs were made last week, or another step up the ladder of success depends largely on news flow, and that hasn't been particularly encouraging of late (see above).
There's an old adage that reads something like, "never short a dull market," which falls a bit short in the logic department. If a market is dull, it obviously is in need of a catalyst to move ahead, move quicker, move at all. Will selling short bring out buyers? Maybe that's the idea, but there's no proof that a dull market is any more prone to melt up than a volatile market. If things are hot, people are buying and selling, brokers are making commissions (well, that's how it used to be), and stocks are going somewhere, up or down, that would seem to be a more dangerous place into which to sell.
There will be short sellers, but, at the present, there doesn't seem to be many eager buyers out there.
This is what happens when nothing happens. You have to write about nothing happening as if there is actually something happening.
Nothing is happening.
At the Close, Wednesday, November 13, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,783.59, +92.10 (+0.33%)
NASDAQ: 8,482.10, -3.99 (-0.05%)
S&P 500: 3,094.04, +2.20 (+0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 13,385.05, -2.57 (-0.02%)
"How slow is it," the crowd chants, Johnny Carson style.
Well, the Dow is up 102 points as of Wednesday's close. That's the good news, and it's about as good as it gets. The NASDAQ, in three sessions, has gained six points, the S&P just under one point, and the NYSE Composite is down 22.75 points.
That's how slow it is.
As for the causes, anybody's guess will do, but the most likely candidates are uncertainty over just about everything, from impeachment hearings in the House of Representatives, to ongoing and increasingly-violent protests in Hong Kong, to backtracking in US-China trade relations, to just plain old vanilla market overbought conditions. It's not like the economy is booming (1.9% 3rd quarter GDP), or that most of the fuel has been courtesy of the Federal Reserve (another $200 billion added to their balance sheet in just the past two months), or that stock buybacks have been responsible for more than 60% of the gains over the past five years (maybe).
There are ample reasons for people to take a look-and-see stance. Just in case nobody's noticed, it's almost the end of 2019, allocations have already been made and funds are sitting on their hands, lest they get burned hitting the BUY button before year end.
If the New York stock exchange shut down for a day or two, or even a week or two, would it matter to anybody but the ultra-wealthy? Probably not, and, since the ultra-wealthy are, ahem, ultra-wealthy, why should they be buying stocks at nosebleed levels anyhow? They're waiting for the next greater fool, so they can sell some of their holdings at nice profits.
Thus, it's a simple assumption to make that if there are few buyers, and ample sellers who are holding out for the best prices, not much is going to happen, and that's why this week has been so slow. Whether that translates into a major downdraft, as many have been predicting once new highs were made last week, or another step up the ladder of success depends largely on news flow, and that hasn't been particularly encouraging of late (see above).
There's an old adage that reads something like, "never short a dull market," which falls a bit short in the logic department. If a market is dull, it obviously is in need of a catalyst to move ahead, move quicker, move at all. Will selling short bring out buyers? Maybe that's the idea, but there's no proof that a dull market is any more prone to melt up than a volatile market. If things are hot, people are buying and selling, brokers are making commissions (well, that's how it used to be), and stocks are going somewhere, up or down, that would seem to be a more dangerous place into which to sell.
There will be short sellers, but, at the present, there doesn't seem to be many eager buyers out there.
This is what happens when nothing happens. You have to write about nothing happening as if there is actually something happening.
Nothing is happening.
At the Close, Wednesday, November 13, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,783.59, +92.10 (+0.33%)
NASDAQ: 8,482.10, -3.99 (-0.05%)
S&P 500: 3,094.04, +2.20 (+0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 13,385.05, -2.57 (-0.02%)
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Stalled Out: Dow Finishes Unchanged; NASDAQ, S&P Flat Following Trump Speech
After President Donald J. Trump's speech before the Economic Club of New York, stocks retreated, wiping out gains made earlier in the session. Trump spoke during the noon hour, maintaining a hard line on negotiations with China and the European Union.
The president reiterated the need for fair and reciprocal trade, addressing the unfairness in trading with China and praising his administration for raising tariffs on Chinese imports. As is his style, the president called out the Chinese for stealing intellectual property, subsidizing their own industries at the expense of the US, and dumping products on our shores at under-competitive prices.
Critical of the president's tough approach with the Chinese, the media produced enough negative headlines to send the algorithms into a spasmodic tailspin, selling stocks with abandon. The Dow was up nearly 80 points in early trading, but sold off in the afternoon, eventually finishing unchanged.
It was the first time the Dow had closed unchanged since 2014, and the third time since 2000. According to the Motley Fool, the chance that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would close unchanged for a single day became more difficult when the index adopted decimalization in 2001. Prior to that, advances and declines were measured in eights of a point, a much larger denominator than today's, which is one cent. The article points out that the Dow finished unchanged ten times in the 1990s and four times in just one year: 1979.
With the Dow flattened out for the day along with the other major indices, interest turned to global markets which uniformly reacted with negativity. All Asian markets were lower overnight and European exchanges were also showing declines, though the losses were less than spectacular. Other than Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index - which is a separate case altogether due to the ongoing protests and disruptions - none of the major indices were down more than one percent.
As daylight broke over America's Eastern shores, stock futures were pointing to a negative open. Dow futures were off more than 100 points.
At the Close, Tuesday, November 12, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,691.49, 0.00 (0.00%)
NASDAQ: 8,486.09, +21.81 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 3,091.84, +4.83 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 13,387.62, -0.49 (-0.00%)
The president reiterated the need for fair and reciprocal trade, addressing the unfairness in trading with China and praising his administration for raising tariffs on Chinese imports. As is his style, the president called out the Chinese for stealing intellectual property, subsidizing their own industries at the expense of the US, and dumping products on our shores at under-competitive prices.
Critical of the president's tough approach with the Chinese, the media produced enough negative headlines to send the algorithms into a spasmodic tailspin, selling stocks with abandon. The Dow was up nearly 80 points in early trading, but sold off in the afternoon, eventually finishing unchanged.
It was the first time the Dow had closed unchanged since 2014, and the third time since 2000. According to the Motley Fool, the chance that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would close unchanged for a single day became more difficult when the index adopted decimalization in 2001. Prior to that, advances and declines were measured in eights of a point, a much larger denominator than today's, which is one cent. The article points out that the Dow finished unchanged ten times in the 1990s and four times in just one year: 1979.
With the Dow flattened out for the day along with the other major indices, interest turned to global markets which uniformly reacted with negativity. All Asian markets were lower overnight and European exchanges were also showing declines, though the losses were less than spectacular. Other than Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index - which is a separate case altogether due to the ongoing protests and disruptions - none of the major indices were down more than one percent.
As daylight broke over America's Eastern shores, stock futures were pointing to a negative open. Dow futures were off more than 100 points.
At the Close, Tuesday, November 12, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,691.49, 0.00 (0.00%)
NASDAQ: 8,486.09, +21.81 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 3,091.84, +4.83 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 13,387.62, -0.49 (-0.00%)
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