Drums of War Bring Out the Traders

It didn't take long for Wall Street professionals to get over their fear of war in the Middle East, particularly Syria.

In fact, it took less than one day for the drumbeats of potential warfare to bring out the animal spirits and send stocks soaring.

Unfortunately, volume is still in the "new normal" range of moderate to dismal, and the Dow stopped ominously short of the magic 15,000 mark, a sign that there's still a healthy level of skepticism over the future of American empire.

Today's activity was really nothing of great consequence. Most traders are waiting until Friday's non-farm payroll report before the bell to establish positions or head for the hills. It's a very undecided market presently and that doesn't seem to want to change, especially considering the headwinds of the debt ceiling and Fed tapering on the agenda later in the month.

This little two-day rally did reverse the overall trend, for now, and the major indices are sitting close to key levels of resistance, though the Dow and S&P are still stuck below their 50-day moving averages.

Commodities acted very strangely, with significant losses in oil, gold and silver.

Dow 14,930.87, +96.91 (0.65%)
NASDAQ 3,649.04, +36.43 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,653.08, +13.31 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 9,400.20, +66.71 (0.71%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,812,184,125
NYSE Volume 3,516,943,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4510-2082
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 149-57
WTI crude oil: 107.23, -1.31
Gold: 1,390.00, -22.00
Silver: 23.42, -1.014

Confused? Don't Worry. Everybody Else Is, Too

Ours is a complex world, and there's probably nothing more complex than the intricate workings of today's financial markets.

The news flow of the day involved nothing much of note moving forward on the Syrian issue, a second reading of second quarter GDP (the new, vastly inflated version) of 2.5%, lower initial unemployment claims and the laughable nationwide "strike" by fast food workers demanding a doubling of their wages, from roughly the minimum wage of $7.25 to about $15 per hour.

Here's a few clues for the burger flippers of the world: a) you'd be better off on welfare; b) McDonald's, Burger King and Wendy's aren't going to double your pay; c) your new status as part-time employees is thanks to your hero, president Obama and his health care reform package; d)moving out of your parents' home and having a kid out of wedlock were probably bad ideas.

While we're on the advice meme for today, for the President: don't do it.
For congress: impeachment is still an option.
For Vlad Putin: Keep doing what you're doing.
For gold and silver bugs: buy or hold.
For stock holders: SELL!
and, for Miley Cyrus haters: Get a life. Stuff happens.

Meanwhile, stocks rallied hard in the morning and sold off hard in the final hour, similar to yesterday's action and a clearly bearish trading pattern. Bonds sold off, early, then rallied, sending yields up, then down.

Oil fell sharply.

If none of this makes any sense in a macro kind of way, that's probably the way it's supposed to be. As somebody very wise once said, "if it were easy, we'd all be rich." Ain't that the truth.

Friday is the final day of trading for the month, which really doesn't mean much of anything, except that, being August, expect some volume to return to the stock market the first week of September. Overall, it looks like a sure down month for the Dow and S&P, though the NASDAQ has bucked the trend somewhat, falling only 0.1% - basically dead even - for the month.

Since labor Day is fast upon us, here's a quote to ponder: "From Each According to His Ability, To Each According to His Need" -- The Tramp's Speech from Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged."

We may or may not be back tomorrow, depending largely upon global events, whether the market moves are large or small and whether the fish are biting.

Dow 14,840.95, +16.44 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 3,620.30, +26.95 (0.75%)
S&P 500 1,638.17, +3.21 (0.20%)
NYSE Composite 9,315.83, +6.75 (0.07%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,288,533,125
NYSE Volume 2,802,161,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4291-2233
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-53
WTI crude oil: 108.80, -1.30
Gold: 1,412.90, -5.90
Silver: 24.09, -0.301

Boffo Week for Stocks; Gas Prices on the Rise

For investors, a week nearly devoid of any actionable news resulted in one of the best weekly gains in stocks of the year.

On the week, stocks roared higher, much of the gains based on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's dovish comments on unemployment and the economy following the close of trading on Wednesday. Fed governor James Bullard - the most dovish of the flock of doves comprising the Fed governors - chimed in late Friday to add more fuel to the hot money rally.

The weekly gains:
Dow: +328.46 (2.17%)
S&P 500: +48.30 (2.96%)
NASDAQ: +120.70 (3.47%)

That's it in a nutshell. Just remember that nothing matters except the words coming out of Fed members' mouths.

On the downside, oil prices have spiked higher, consequently raising the price of fuel at the pump. According to AAA, gas prices nationally rose an average of 7 1/2 cents this week to $3.550 for unleaded regular, but the price pass-along to stations has only just begun. Drivers should brace for gas at $3.80 to over $4.00, depending on location, long before Labor Day.

Dow 15,464.30, +3.38(0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,600.08, +21.78(0.61%)
S&P 500 1,680.19, +5.17(0.31%)
NYSE Composite 9,493.20, -0.06 (0.00%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,487,364,375
NYSE Volume 3,132,032,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3295-3092
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 543-27
WTI crude oil: 105.95, +1.04
Gold: 1,277.60, -2.30
Silver: 19.79, -0.164

Stocks End Week on Super-Duper High Note as All Indicators Are Ignored

Other than options expiry, there was no good reason for stocks to go higher today, though this market doesn't need any reasons or rationale for any kind of movement. So, it was not surprising that, on a day in which the only relevant data came from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators - incidentally, the only two data points that were positive this week - that stocks would rise to new all-time highs on the Dow and S&P, while the NASDAQ continued its recent string of 12 1/2-year-highs.

Consumer sentiment catapulted from April's 76.4 to 83.7 in May, while the LEI came in with a gain for April of 0.6% on expectations of 0.3, after March's disappointing -0.2%, not that the prior reading mattered at all.

Stocks are raging, and to those who have invested and made money, congratulations. For those who have stayed on the sidelines, this is surely not an opportune time to invest, despite what all the financial pundits are saying, unless one believes it is wise to buy at all-time highs.

So ends another week in fantasy-land, aka, Wall Street.

Gold and silver were again taken out back and punished severely, but - big surprise - crude oil continued to march toward the $100/barrel level.

Happy motoring!

Dow 15,354.40, +121.18 (0.80%)
NASDAQ 3,498.97, +33.72 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,667.47, +17.00 (1.03%)
NYSE Composite 9,576.41, +87.10 (0.92%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,820,408,750
NYSE Volume 3,736,158,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4518-1925
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 703-45
WTI crude oil: 96.02, +0.86
Gold: 1,364.70, -22.20
Silver: 22.35, +0.307

'Sell in May' the Mantra for Almost All Asset Classes

The first day of may held true to the tried and true market adage, "sell in May and stay away," as all asset classes declined, though commodity prices were hardest hit and forex barely budged.

Stocks took it on the chin from traders who continue to see horror in economic data, today's fright fest courtesy of the ADP Employment Index, construction spending and the ISM Index.

ADP said the economy missed its target of 150,000 new jobs by a wide amount, coming in at 119,000 for April and revised March lower as well. Construction spending shrank by 1.7% on expectations of a 0.4% increase, and the ISM reading, though nearly in line with expectations, registered a relatively weak 50.7, just barely above the 50 mark which signals growth above the number or decline below it.

It was likely the ADP figure that sent stocks careening at the open, but it wasn't until after the FOMC announcement at 2:00 pm EDT that stocks really began to slump deeply, finishing near the lows of the day after the Fed said they would keeps rates as they were, to the surprise of absolutely nobody. Daily volume was moderate.

The Vix spiked above 14.50, a signal that risk was being sold off, though still mired in a low range. Gold, silver and oil all surpassed the losses in stocks, with crude take=ing the biggest dive. WTI and Brent continue to converge; the expectation is that they will align at some point so that there is a global price for oil. Currently, futures are less than $10 apart, with Brent the higher of the two, falling below $100 per barrel as Europe's recession/depression begins to reach epic proportions.

As for gold and silver, the paper prices posted don't really seem to matter any more, as the price for physical metal has departed company from the spot price in nearly every venue in every country on the planet. People are aware of currency debasement and are seeking ways to preserve what little wealth remains in this era of extreme punishment for savers.

Treasuries have fallen below the recent plateau levels and continue to point up weakness in the economy and the need for some to flee to safe havens. As inflation remains subdued - using a Fedspeak term - bond holders are not losing much over time, though durations shorter than five years are yielding almost nothing. The benchmark ten-year was last seen around 1.63% yield.

The first day of the new month brought out the bears, though it remains to be seen whether this is the beginning of a trend or just a one-trick pony. The government's non-farm payroll data, due out Friday prior to the opening, should be the highlight of the week. Anticipation is for 155,000 new jobs created in April, but, after ADP's disappointing numbers this morning, prospects appear dim.

Dow 14,700.95, -138.85 (0.94%)
NASDAQ 3,299.13, -29.66 (0.89%)
S&P 500 1,582.70, -14.87 (0.93%)
NYSE Composite 9,174.76, -102.12 (1.10%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,769,443,125
NYSE Volume 3,697,257,75o
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1665-4789
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 377-53
WTI crude oil: 91.03, -2.43
Gold: 1,446.20, -25.90
Silver: 23.34, -0.842

Flash Crash Proves Individuals are OUT of the Market and Computers Run the Show

As mentioned briefly yesterday, US and European markets are a joke. They are manipulated beyond one's wildest imagination and almost exclusively, the trading is done by computer algorithms, as was made entirely too clear by the action in yesterday's hacked AP Twitter account-flash crash.

In case you missed it - after all, it was only a four minute event - stocks lost all of their gains when somebody hacked into the Twitter account of the Associated Press (AP) and posted that there were two explosions at the white House and that President Barack Obama had been injured.

The tweet was a hoax, but the computers - which cannot deduce and make value judgements - responded by selling off all stocks. Volume, as displayed in animations from nanex.net completely dried up, leaving a few computers trading with a few other computers.

In other words, there were very few, if any, human responses to the fake tweet. Welcome to the bidless US stock markets, where only the computers can get the best prices and humans are relegated to a back seat. Any wonder why individual investors are wary of the stock markets? The same conditions likely exist - though not in such a pronounced manner - in forex and commodity markets.

It's time the American people disengage from this lunacy where only the bankers, exchanges and traders profit.

Take, for instance, today's trading, in which, when all was said and done at the close, the S&P gained a penny, the NASDAQ, 32 cents, while the Dow was down 43 points and the NYSE Composite gained almost 34 points. Surely that makes sense to some master algo inside a supercomputer somewhere beneath the trading floors, but to us dumb humans, it's somewhat confounding and confusing.

CNBC's Rick Santelli astutely pointed out that the other trade impacted by the phony tweet was none other than the Japanese Yen - US Dollar cross and the Yen/Euro cross, making the point that the Yen is now also tied into US stocks by HFT algos. Lovely.

Sooner or later, there's going to be a mistake somewhere, or some purposeful key-logging or hacking that completely disrupts trading in markets nearly around the world, and by then it will be too late. Obviously, having algos that trade on the basis of tweeted information is rife with flaws and ripe for harvest by nefarious forces.

As far as today's trading is concerned, nothing really mattered, even though the US was hit with another poor economic report, this one on durable goods orders for March, which came in at -5.1% on expectations of -3.1, so it was a bad miss on an equally bad forecast.

The spate of bad economic data has been partially offset of late by fairly good earnings reports from a smorgasbord of companies, close to half the S&P 500 having already reported. Of course, the algos are all over those, programmed to buy heavily on any earnings beats and disregard most misses.

Reality seems to have evaded Wall Street on a semi-permanent basis, but, Wall Street has never purported to have been a place for well-grounded types of people in the first place.

With sociopaths running the computers which trade the world, humans are bound to get bruised, and badly.

Gold and silver got a little bit of a bid, but a good chuck of it after the COMEX trading session ended. Oil was the top-performer with a gain of more than two percent. Oil never seems to be able to stay down for long. Funny how that always seems to be the case.

Dow 14,676.30, -43.16 (0.29%)
NASDAQ 3,269.65, +0.32 (0.01%)
S&P 500 1,578.79, +0.01 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite 9,147.77, +32.65 (0.37%)
NASDAQ Volume... 1,643,812,625.00
NYSE Volume 3,647,139,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4021-2343
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 381-36
WTI crude oil: 91.43, +2.25
Gold: 1,423.70, +14.90
Silver: 22.83, +0.016

Wall Street is Becoming a Falling Stock Zone

Is anyone other than the Fed governors and CNBC hosts convinced that ZIRP and QE aren't exactly working?

For the second day out of the past three, stocks suffered severe, across-the-board losses, extending the pullback that began on Friday.

The worst performing index has been the NASDAQ, which has dropped nearly 100 points since the close on Thursday (1300.18).

Dow stocks, predominated by high-yielding, dividend-producing income companies - the creme de la creme - have fared better, though the index is still down 247 points and there are still two days remaining in the trading week.

While the recent moves may be described as a precursor of the time-honored tradition of "sell in May and stay away," the directionality is troubling, because the US is supposed to be in a recovery.

Not helping matters much are the oddities coming out of Boston in the aftermath of Monday's bomb strikes, and Washington, where packages containing ricin have been showing up with increasing frequency.

Larger issues loom in Europe, where data continues to deteriorate, even in Germany, thought to be the bastion of strength.

Corporate earnings have been less-than-encouraging as well. Today's numbers from Bank of America (BAC) were notably weak, spurring the drop at the opening bell.

Still, the losses have not reached even three percent, so it may well be too early to make a call that direction has changed, though, as has been pointed out repeatedly here and elsewhere, bull markets do not last forever, and this one is heading into its 50th month.

Key data this week has included a wicked drop in the Empire State manufacturing index, from 9.2 to 3.1, a negative reading (-0.2) on CPI for March and a drop-off in building permits, suggesting that the housing sector may not be quite as healthy as the pundits have been preaching.

Volume on the day was particularly heavy, a signal not lost on both bulls and bears; decliners outpaced advancing issues four-to-one; new lows, for the first time this year, superseded new highs, and by a rather large amount, another key metric.

After the bell, both American Express (AXP) and eBay (EBAY) missed gross revenue targets and just barely beat (each by a penny) the per share earnings forecasts.

Commodities continue to be beaten down as deflationary forces appear to be winning at the present time. Depending upon which side you butter your bread, that may be good or bad news.

There is good news in oil, which hit a multi-month low. If prices for crude continue to depress and remain so, it won't be long before driving Americans finally get a break at the gas pump.

Gold and silver continue to be on sale, though shortages in physical metal are widespread and premiums over spot prices are ranging anywhere from 16 to 35 percent. If that condition persists, forget the gold and silver ETFs, they will eventually break down as the backers are unable to deliver physical metal on contracts.

LATE BREAKING: Senate votes down gun control "compromise" measure. Long live the 2nd amendment!
and...
Europe's leading parliamentarian, Nigel Farage:



Dow 14,618.59, -138.19 (0.94%)
NASDAQ 3,204.67, -59.96 (1.84%)
S&P 500 1,552.01, -22.56 (1.43%)
NYSE Composite 8,955.47, -130.96 (1.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,889,783,125
NYSE Volume 4,579,846,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1382-5083
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 87-178 (this could be huge!)
WTI crude oil: 86.68, -2.04
Gold: 1,373.10, -14.30
Silver: 23.24, -0.383

Stocks Globally Down, US Stocks Worst Session of Year; Bomb Blasts In Boston; Tax Day, Y'all

Well, I was going to take the day off in celebration of doing my income taxes for the 40th time, but, sure enough, events seem to be overtaking my expected holiday.

First, EVERYTHING WENT DOWN TODAY. From Asian markets, european markets, US and South American markets, gold, oil, silver, corn, wheat... everything.

The fact that the world is entering the second stage of the depression will be obscured by the explosions near the finish line of the Boston marathon which occurred about 3:15 pm EDT.

The nightly news will be all over the explosions and may give 30 seconds to the facts that gold fell by the most amount EVER in one day (probably the same with silver), and US markets had their worst sessions of 2013.

Already, CNBC has pre-empted their normal coverage will wall-to-wall coverage of the Boston blasts.

And, so it goes, we get 9/11 and September, 2008, all rolled into one.

You are welcome to draw your own conclusions. I'm taking the rest of the day off. When more normalcy returns (tomorrow), I'll post a complete column on what all this might mean.

Dow 14,599.20, -265.86 (1.79%)
Nasdaq 3,216.49, -78.46 (2.38%)
S&P 500 1,552.36, -36.49 (2.30%)
10-Yr Bond 1.70% -0.02
NYSE Volume 5,244,061,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,776,598,375
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 868-5689
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 142-137
WTI crude oil: 88.31, -2.98
Gold: 1,357.50, -143.90
Silver: 22.92, -3.41

Gold, Silver Smashed; JP Morgan, Wells Fargo Beat, Sell Off

More questions than answers in the jumbled mess of trading today.

Stocks opened down rather sharply and stayed in the red the balance of the session, but, as usual, the bulls came back in the late stages to push the Dow from a 74-point loss to almost unchanged.

Both JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells-Fargo (WFC) posted positive first quarter results prior to the opening bell, but were sold off in the regular session.

Aside from the usual hijinks in stocks, the real story was in commodities, where gold and silver were battered, sending them to two-year lows.

The questions surrounding the gold trade are thus:
Did Goldman Sachs - which lowered their forecasts just days ago on gold - have anything to do with it or have advance knowledge? (Probably.)

Was the forced selling of gold from the Cyprus central bank the cause or an effect?

Understandable that gold was rocked down, but silver fell even more, by percentage. Why?

The best news of the day came from the oil pits, where crude traded just above $90 for a time today and closed down more than 2%. A cursory glance at oil prices over the past year show the downtrend fully in place. Consequently, gas at the pump is down 36 cents from a year ago, on average, and should drop even more in coming weeks with today's drop.

The commodities, along with the string of recent misses in US economic data (today, retail sales were a stinker), may be telling the market something which it does not wish to hear, setting up a correction that is long overdue. Leading that concept is the huge imbalance in the advance-decline line, given the smallish losses.

Of course, that's just the kind of thinking that leads to losses in this liquidity-fed environment, but, then again, how long can this bull run without a break and without breaking down? The current bull market is just over 48 months, and the general length of bull markets is somewhere between 44 and 62 weeks. Time may be running short, or , is this time different?

The word from the Fed is simple. Stay long. Stay strong.

Ah, conventional wisdom is so... simple.

Dow 14,865.06, -0.08 (0.00%)
NASDAQ 3,294.95, -5.21 (0.16%)
S&P 500 1,588.85, -4.52 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite 9,188.11, -45.91 (0.50%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,459,983,750
NYSE Volume 3,534,229,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2478-3940
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 260-53
WTI crude oil: 91.29, -2.22
Gold: 1,501.40, -63.50
Silver: 26.33, -1.366

Something's Up... and it's Not the Stock Market

Intuition is vastly underrated by the scientific or technological community.

Understanding that the twinge of doubt or "gut feeling" is more than just an emotional reaction but in reality a hot process of accumulated experiences - some deeply-rooted and ancestral, others from immediate life experience - raises the process of intuitive thinking to a better standing, one that can assimilate data in microseconds and respond with appropriate action.

It's something along the lines of survival instinct in animals, who will move quickly at the rustling of leaves or changes in the flow of a stream. Humans, plugged into cell phones, iPods and a dizzying array of self-created distractions often don't have access to their own intuitiveness in the way other creatures do, but, sometimes, the clues are just too obvious to miss.

Such was the case with today's market action.

First, the ADP employment report for March, released prior to the opening bell, offered the second of three straight data point this week that was of a negative nature. The creation of 158,000 new jobs in the month was well short of the anticipated 197,000, and a precursor to Friday's "all-important" Non-farm payroll data from the BLS.

The other two data points on the negative side were the drop in the ISM index on Monday and the ISM Services index drop at 10:00 am EDT, that showed a slowdown to 54.4 from 56.0 in February.

Those were the catalysts to some pretty serious selling in equities, but also in gold, silver, oil, copper, corn, financial stocks, and a boost in bonds that sent yields lower, a trend that seems to be quite well-entrenched of late.

By midday, it was fairly obvious that everything was falling at the same time, which is not normal. On top of the usual market issues, the North Korean nut case keeps ramping up the rhetoric - the US responding with ongoing escalation - and the vision of depositor funds being vanished from bank accounts in Cyprus still fresh, the notion that things were fast unraveling was hard to miss.

Analysts of various stripes have been warning about a downturn in the markets for weeks, if not months, and the 100+ point decline on the Dow may serve notice that the top is in and everything from here to October (if we're lucky) is going to be downhill. The more obvious evidence comes in the form of the crumbling US economy, boosted with easy money, welfare checks, food stamps, disability payments and other government transfer payments that still cannot produce a GDP growing at faster than a two percent clip.

All the evidence is out there, in front of everyone's eyes, but it seemed that only today, the buzz-heads and stock jocks in equity la-la-land finally took the bait and took a big chunk out of the normalcy bias that pervades trading desks and the floors of the exchanges.

There was actual fear in the air, rather than the usual blather that the "Fed has our back," that has been conventional wisdom for the past four-plus years.

In effect, it's the Fed that has caused, in large part, the continuum of crisis that continues unabated, their easy money policies creating distortions of immense proportions, so that almost everything is mis-priced, mis-allocated and misinterpreted, the result being one massive, global mistake of monetary mismanagement that threatens the entire financial and social fabric of the planet.

It didn't take a genius to figure all of this out, just a feeling, that when everything began falling, the tumbling would not stop, the last time this happened (our minds reeling and whirring like the great analytical tools they are) was September of 2008, when Lehman Brothers was about to go under and the world changed - not for the better.

Mark this date, because it may be one for the history books, noted as the beginning of the end, when the tsunami of financial events, forestalled since the extraordinary measures of the Fed and other central banks in 2008-09, finally came rushing onshore, all at the same time, with a force and a fury that's been building since those well-embraced days of Hank Paulson putting a $700 billion gun to the head of the government and threatening to pull the trigger.

We may have weathered the storm of the past four years, but the backlash may be even worse, and it's coming faster than most people can anticipate or prepare for.

It's a funny thing about predicting disasters. You're humored or ignored or laughed at all the way up to the actual event. And then, people ask you what to do, when you've been telling them just that, all along.

Stocks may be up again tomorrow, or for the next week or month, even, but there's trouble coming, you can just feel it.

Dow 14,550.35, 111.66 (0.76%)
NASDAQ 3,218.60, -36.26 (1.11%)
S&P 500 1,553.69, -16.56 (1.05%)
NYSE Composite 8,983.40, -109.50 (1.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,813,335,250
NYSE Volume 4,418,003,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1499-4977 (huge)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 182-92 (tighter)
WTI crude oil: 94.45, -2.74
Gold: 1,553.50, -22.40
Silver: 26.80, -0.451

Dead, Rigged Market Can Only Respond As Ordered; Is Worthless, Valueless, Void

The Fed's FOMC announcement today was another snoozer, as expected, more or less, but, now that the nation's central bank has decided not to announce another round of QE, one has to wonder whether last week's euphoria was nothing more than orchestration for a quick profit drive. Probably was.

Otherwise, the market is absolutely a dead zone, with some action in specific stocks, though the overall trend is pretty morose. Anybody who has even a cursory knowledge of economics or finance realizes that the markets are highly rigged in favor of a nefarious group of insiders, whose main goal is to profit at the expense of others, even their own clients.

Further, everyone is aware of the headwinds facing the global economies and associated markets. Those are not and will not go away.

The few data points released today were not particularly encouraging, though the veracity of the releases and the methodologies employed in reaching conclusive evidence are also quite questionable.

ADP's monthly survey of private sector employment recorded a gain of 163,000 jobs in July, after posting a gain of 179,000 in June. The numbers provided by ADP are somewhat of a mystery, as they always differ widely from the "official" government non-farm payroll figures, due out Friday, and upon which everyone with skin in this market is awaiting.

The July ISM Index posted its second straight reading showing contraction, at 49.8 for the month, after June's 49.7. Contraction in manufacturing is for two consecutive months, even though it is slight, is not an encouraging sign for the future, as these kinds of negative readings often lead to nasty occurrences like recessions, layoffs and general malaise, sluggishness, business failures and assorted blight.

What may be even more surprising is that the market hasn't fallen more, now that the Fed is officially not going to do anything (which doesn't matter anyhow, because what they've done thus far hasn't really worked for anyone other than Wall Street types).

Tomorrow's ECB meeting - getting to be a nearly regular monthly voyage into the land of make believe - is almost certain to satisfy nobody, like some people we know, though, like those people, the leaders of the various nations might be sufficiently entertained by their fantasies to believe they're actually doing the world some good, when in fact they are only making life more miserable for more people and jeopardizing their own futures at the same time.

One gets the idea that these types just don't care about anything other than their own sorry existences, which, being the "leaders" that they are, complicates matters for the unchosen followers, the bulk of mankind.

Best possibly to ignore them completely, as their machinations now have little to do with reality. As the global Ponzi scheme draws inevitably closer to its fitting, fateful end, self-sufficiency and resourcefulness of individuals will become more and more a prized asset. The best time to start along of path of separation from the status quo and into a more sustainable existence of one's own would probably have been yesterday, though the globalists appear determined to stretch out their dying days as long as possible, giving a leg up to late starters.

For the rest, especially those defined by the elite as "worthless eaters," life continues to gradually erode into dependency upon the state, many of which are on life support and beyond the point where they can actually meet all of their obligations, an unenviable condition sure to result in great pain and suffering for many.

When even a rigged market is dead and lifeless, what hope for a future of sound economy can anyone honestly hold?

Dow 12,976.13, -32.55 (0.25%)
NASDAQ 2,920.21, -19.31 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,375.32, -4.00 (0.29%)
NYSE Composite 7,848.60, -15.34 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,691,360,500.00
NYSE Volume 4,014,368,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1791-3727
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 257-114
WTI crude oil: 88.91, +0.85
Gold: 1,603.70, -6.80
Silver: 27.54, -0.38

Dow Erases All 2012 Gains; Global Depression Dead Ahead

T.G.I.F., or, more succinctly, thank God this Friday is over.

After the release of some really poor employment numbers in May's non-farm payroll report from the BLS, stocks fell off a cliff right from the open and continued to slide all day in the single worst trading session since last November.

With only 69,000 net new jobs created in May - well below the average estimate of 150,000 - the false "recovery" meme from just a few months ago was completely eviscerated as a rash of poor data which had been flowing to the market all week culminated in the worst employment figures in a year.

In addition to the unemployment rate rising to 8.2% - the first rise in over a year - March and April data were revised lower. March job growth total was reduced from 154,000 to 143,000 and the April number slashed from 115,000 to just 77,000.

While the US had its own woes, the deepening recession in Europe only made matters worse as Markit's Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 45.1 in May from 45.9 in April, its lowest level since June 2009. The index's latest reading was all the more frightening as data showed manufacturing in France and Germany - supposedly the two strongest members of the EU - slowing at its fastest rate in nearly three years.

Even in developing nations like China, India and Brazil, growth has been slowing and the pace of decline continues to gather momentum. Since the economies of these and other developing nations depend greatly on exports to Europe and the US, the slowdown of the developed economies produces a knock-on effect to the exporters.

The only bright spot of the day came from automakers, which saw double-digit sales gains when compared to a year ago, though all of the US figures were below expectations. GM posted a gain of 11% from May of last year, Ford sales were up 13%, Chrysler, 30%, while Toyota, rebounding from the tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster of a year ago, saw a sales increase of 87%.

The Dow Jones Industrials and NYSE Composite index each saw all of 2012 advances wiped out as of the close today. The S&P 500 is just 20 points better than the close on December 30, 2011, while the NASDAQ still sports a gain for the year of better than 100 points. All but the NASDAQ closed today below their 200 day moving average, a sure sign that there is more downside to come.

Along with stocks hitting the skids hard on the day, the US 10-year note hit yet another historic low, ending the week at 1.45%. Its counterpart in Germany, the 10-year Bund, has also been chasing yield lower, with a reading of 1.12% seen today.

Gold had a rapid rise on the news, regaining its status as a safe-haven currency, along with silver, which also posted a healthy increase. Precious metals investors should not be fooled, however, by today's moves alone. During the crash of 2008, all asset classes were decimated, though the metals improved earlier and with more ferocity than equities.

All around, even though it was a shortened trading week, it was the worst of 2012 on the major indices. Internals are screaming correction in equities, while the price of oil continues to signal a cold, deflationary environment in the face of a rising dollar, which seems to be a silver lining to a worsening economy. Gas prices will be lower, though many will be unable to afford to go anywhere.

After governments and central banks have thrown trillions in quantitative easing and stimulus for bailouts and bank balance sheet bolstering, the global financial system seems on the verge of another major breakdown, one that may make 2008 look like a picnic by comparison. As all fiat money systems in the history of civilization have eventually failed, our current regime of "money from nothing" appears to be coming to a cataclysmic demise, and it is gaining momentum at a terrifying pace.

Eventually, all the bad debts run up by governments and financial institutions are going to result in ruination of the global system, to be replaced by some forms of gold and/or silver-backed currencies. Only then will the world's economies become honorable and stable once again.

Welcome back to the Greater Depression.

Dow 12,118.57, -274.88 (2.22%)
NASDAQ 2,747.48, -79.86 (2.82%)
S&P 500 1,278.04, -32.29 (2.46%)
NYSE Composite 7,292.25, -171.71 (2.30%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,875,578,750
NYSE Volume 4,605,786,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 853-4802
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 34-307
WTI crude oil: 83.23, -3:30
Gold: 1,622.10, +57.90
Silver: 28.51, +0.76

Payroll Number Slams Stocks to the Deck

Yesterday in this space, it was suggested that the immediate future for stocks was all tied to today's non-farm payroll number from the BLS, and, as the ADP figure from Wednesday foretold, the results were lower than expectations and on the whole, put a serious dent in the "road to recovery" theory.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 115,000 net new jobs were created in April, and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, though the reason for the decline in unemployment were that more people ran to the end of their unemployment benefits and others left the workforce entirely. The US workforce participation rate shrank to 63.6% of the adult population, the lowest since 1981.

While the 115,000 new jobs are barely enough to keep pace with a growing workforce in normal times, in the abnormality of today, people are not entering the labor force, but leaving it, putting a very large question mark at the end of any discussion regarding jobs in the United State. It is obvious from this report and others before it that the country's businesses are simply not creating enough jobs to get back to anything even close to full employment. The reasons behind the non-hiring conditions are manifold, but are centered on lack of demand in a sluggish economy wracked by over-regulation and conflicting visions of the near future by legislators who have sat upon their hands and watched the economy deteriorate.

Stocks took a beating right at the start and continued their downward trajectory throughout the morning, finally bottoming out around the lunch hour. The remainder of the session was spent wringing hands, with no noticeable movement in either direction, as the major averages settled into a support range.

A variety of analysts took differing views on the NFP number, most making he point that this April number was a kind of "payback" for the strong numbers in January and February. However, those gains were - in a large part - due to accounting tinkering at the BLS with seasonal adjustments heading the suspect list of fudge-makers.

Governments shed 15,000 jobs, so the private sector growth was 130,000, which, after all, is still a gain, but the underlying trends of many marginally-employed people and those dropping out of the workforce remain problematic over the long haul. The 115,000 was well below consensus estimates for 162,000. whatever ways one wishes to spin it or slice it, a miss is still a miss and investors took note along with short term profits.

The results speak for themselves and put the country's economic future more or less on hold until the May numbers are released. That's a long time for uncertainty to fester and other events to take the situation to even worse levels. While a good portion of the labor condition is being led by political considerations, most of it is the pure stuff of economics textbooks. Slack demand and stagnancy, even in an era of absurdly low interest rates, makes hiring decisions problematic and possibly shelved for a future date. The decay of confidence at all levels of the business community continues to feed upon itself in a very non-virtuous loop, the most egregious effects being felt in the small and start-up areas, where most new jobs are created.

Analysts and pundits can make up all the excuses and white lies they like, but the numbers speak for themselves and they are not pretty.

Notably, new lows exceeded new highs for the first time in over a month, losing stocks were widespread, outnumbering winners by a 7:2 ratio. Oil took a severe downturn for the second straight day, closing below $99 per barrel for the first time since February. The $4.05 decline was the largest of 2012. Gas at the retail pump remains stubbornly high, despite recent pull-backs.

Gold and silver rebounded from recent declines, more in sympathy with unstable global economic conditions than any other factor.

Dow 13,038.27, -168.32 (1.27%)
NASDAQ 2,956.34, -67.96 (2.25%)
S&P 500 1,369.10, -22.47 (1.61%)
NYSE Composite 7,933.29, -116.59 (1.45%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,937,374,375
NYSE Volume 3,924,361,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1268-4345
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-140
WTI crude oil: 98.49, -4.05
Gold: 1,645.20, 10.40
Silver: 30.43, +0.42

Bad Data Continues to Be Ignored by Equity Investors

In the continuing saga of the "recovery which refuses to jibe with reality," some data points delivered this morning shook things up for a while, though the declines were hardly notable.

Well before the opening bell, the monthly ADP Employment Report, which measure the change in private payrolls, came in well below expectations of 170,000, printing at a mediocre 119,000 for April. The survey, which serves as a precursor to the monthly BLS non-farm payroll report (due Friday) is forecasting a poor showing from the government's "official" report. As it is, the forecast for 162,000 net new jobs is just barely enough to keep pace with new entrants to the labor force (roughly 125,000), so any number below that on Friday will be a major blow to the proponents of sustained recovery.

Whether investors (or the machines actually doing 84% of the trades these days) will pay any heed is doubtful, though after April's sub-par showing, stocks put in their worst month in the past seven, so maybe somebody is paying attention to facts instead of relying on instinct and animal spirits.

At 10:00 am, March factory orders were announced at -1.5%, though expectations were for worse data, -1.8%, so this actually could have been seen as a win for equity participants (or their muppet clients).

Adding to the absurdity of economic data, another official figure showed oil stockpiles increasing by 2.840 million barrels, after last week's rise of 3.978 million. That data took oil prices lower by a mere 94 cents, though the price of a barrel of light, sweet crude continues to hover near 12-month highs, despite continuing slack demand. Chalk it up to corporate greed, excessive speculation and a Washington crowd that simply cannot afford to upset one of its main donor groups by actually clamping down on absurdly high prices at the pump.

In effect, the lower and middle classes of Americans now pay an additional tax in the form of these higher fuel prices, all the while oil drilling and recovery continues to be robust in North America. Perhaps the biggest insult to the American people is that oil currently being drilled in North Dakota and elsewhere in the states will more than likely be shipped abroad, where the oil cartel can fetch even higher prices.

So much for all the talk of energy independence and security. The empty suits in the nation's capitol don't deserve even a single vote in this November's elections, though a large number of Americans, stuck in their narrow world of cognitive dissonance with a healthy dose of normalcy bias, still believe in the two-party lie and will cast their votes for the lesser evil this fall, as if their individual votes actually counted (Hint: since 2000 they haven't.).

Days like today are tough on financial reporters, especially those who toe the official media line that all is well and things are getting better, when the evidence - and most public opinion polls - clearly displays the opposite. For those of us who like our facts served cold without garnishments, the temptation to break things or convulse in a spasm of disbelief is hardly bearable.

Come Friday, when the April non-farm reveals a bit more of the truth (though one can count on the BLS and their various fudging mechanisms to completely distort any data they can), perhaps the markets will begin to reflect what's really going in America: the complete and utter annihilation of the middle class and the remaining civil rights that haven't already been denied or abused by an oligarch government that's been off the rails for more than a decade.

Maybe, some day, when fewer than half the registered voters show up in the fall, the ruling class will get a hint that their reigns of power are not derived from the electorate, though it's doubtful they will even care.

Dow 13,268.57, -10.75 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 3,059.85, +9.41 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,402.31, -3.51 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 8,124.32, -39.71 (0.49%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,832,346,375
NYSE Volume 3,784,334,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2707-2890
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 187-66
WTI crude oil: 105.22, -0.94
Gold: 1,654.00, -8.40
Silver: 30.64, -0.29

Housing Not So Rousing, Saudis Naughty on Oil

How's that recovery coming along?

In housing, not so well, it turns out.

Housing starts fell from 705K in January to 698K, annualized, in February, with much of the new construction boosted in the multi-family, "5 units or more" category (apartments), which implies a couple of things. First, investors seem to believe that single-family home construction is a fading business, and, second, most of lower and middle class Americans cannot meet the current, stringent lending requirements needed to qualify for mortgages, so they will rent instead of own.

That's something of a setback for the "American dream of home ownership" crowd that watches in horror as each month more and more existing homes sell for less than their listed price, even more become vacant eyesores due to bank and tax foreclosures as the economy stumbles along at maybe two percent growth.

Building permits rose to 717K in February from 682K in January, probably due to the unusually warm weather across most of the country, though the apparent contrariness in that metric may be merely stealing from the future and is also the very first step in construction - a long way from completion, which, as people in Las Vegas and elsewhere will contend, often never happens.

With those numbers released before the open as a backdrop, stocks opened sharply lower and remained in the red throughout the session, though the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had interesting intra-day rallies that took them well off their lows into the close.

Oil got shocked down as the Saudis pledged to pump more crude, Iran assured its neighbors that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open and more signs that the Chinese economy is slowing emerged.

Overall, it was a good day for consumers and not such a great one for oil barons and one-percenters, though financial stocks were among the leaders. As usual, volume was weak and maybe just a mirage. Silver continues to slump, now down into a great buying range below support at $32/ounce.

Dow 13,170.19, -68.94 (0.52%)
NASDAQ 3,074.15, -4.17 (0.14%)
S&P 500 1,405.52, -4.23 (0.30%)
NYSE Composite 8,241.27, -56.20 (0.68%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,508,268,500
NYSE Volume 3,656,522,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1753-3806
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 116-40
WTI crude oil: 105.61, -2.48
Gold: 1,647.00, -20.30
Silver: 31.83, -1.12

Dow Runs at 13,000, Relents, as Oil Tops $106/Barrel; Gold, Silver Rocket Higher

On the heels of a three-day weekend and a late-night session of EU finance ministers which apparently (maybe, sort of, kinda) came to a conclusion on funding for the failed state of Greece, the Dow Jones Industrials were poised to exceed 13,000, a number not seen since May of 2008.

While the Eurocrats dithered, wrangled and finally agreed to a very messy agreement to stave off the imminent default of the Republic of Greece, most Americans were sleeping, though the conditions of the Greek people continued to worsen, seemingly by the hour.

Nonetheless, stocks opened with the usual ebullience afforded the opening of a new week of stock profit pursuits and quickly came within a whisker of the magic 13,000 level, before falling quickly backward at 10:00 am, as the Euro plunged.

Undiscouraged, the monkey algos, which amount for more than 70% of all trades, turned around as the Euro resumed gaining value against the US dollar and the Dow eventually broke through the haloed mark, though just briefly, on three different occasions during the session.

Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil surpassed $105/barrel and just after 2:30, rang up $106. At that, the market had had enough and the day's rally was quickly over, the Dow - and all of the major averages - falling into the red before recovering slightly into the close for a split finish.

While there is still some guarded optimism over the Greek "deal" struck by the EU ministers, there are more than just a few doubters that the country will ever recover from the depression caused by decades of overspending, cheating on taxes (it's a Greek - and exceedingly a global - way of life) and an overhang of debt that would make even mighty Atlas himself shy from the task of holding aloft the birthplace of democracy.

Stock profiteers aside, there's ample reason to believe that Greece's ongoing tragedy will help pull down the rest of the Eurozone, and with it the global economy, fiat money and eventually, governments. The major economies of the world are playing with fire, printing without remorse nor sufficient moral appreciation of what the aftermath of global inflation will bring.

Today's skittish market turnaround may have been the first chapter in what could be "the great unraveling." Too little has been done - here in the US, in Europe, China and Japan - to address the underlying issues of the great recession, with the economists of the world having come up with no answer other than to simply pile more debt on top of the already enormous mountain of unpayable debts built up during the go-go 90s and moribund 2000s.

If there's any wonder why gold and silver took off today like they were launched out of cannons, the chart below may explain why the now-12-year bull run of the precious metals may just be getting started.

Dow 13,000 may be a pretty number and cause for celebration in some board rooms and on certain stock desks, but it has little to do with the overall health of the economy of any nation. Relentless printing of money, backed by "full faith and credit" has become the norm and we will all be the poorer for it in time and the price of oil is merely the tip of the spear that will pierce all the misconceptions and hopeful tones emanating from Wall Street, the City of London, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Dow 12,965.69, +15.82 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,948.57, -3.21 (0.11%)
S&P 500 1,362.21, +0.98 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 8,115.42, +0.91 (0.01%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,815,109,000
NYSE Volume 3,766,193,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2490-3168
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 260-16 (ridiculous)
WTI crude oil: 105.84, +2.60
Gold: 1,758.50, +32.60
Silver: 34.43, +1.21

Correlation Trades Correlating, Kind of; Jobs Data Up Next

Remember those correlation trades that were discussed at length yesterday and how they weren't exactly correlating?

Well, today, they worked a little better, though they are still skewed against their traditional trading bias.

The Euro was flattened today, hitting a new 12-month low against the US Dollar, and, for a while, that seemed to be working as US stocks were down heavily in morning trading, but, as soon as Europe's equity markets closed at 11:30 am ET, stocks began drifting upwards, and the momentum stocks on the NASDAQ actually finished with healthy gains while the S&P and Dow (which had been down as much as 134 points earlier) finished basically flat.

With the Euro hitting below 1.28 to the dollar, the Dollar Index responded with a one percent gain (80.949, +0.818), reaching a one-year high. That sent oil prices lower, as it should, despite the continuing wagging of tongues by both the Iranians and the leaders of the EU. While the EU's move to embargo all shipments of oil from Iran to Europe, is a bit of a dodgy move (Iran's exports to Europe only account for 20% of their oil exports), so too is Iran's statement that they can and will shut down the shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz.

It looks like the classic Mexican standoff, with the US pointing its guns directly at the Iranians. The Europeans will likely go through with their threatened sanctions, but the Iranians will probably not want to evoke the ire of the United States, because that would produce something along the lines of World War III, even though that may be what Iran wants and the rest of the (un)civilized world needs.

Europe's woes continue non-stop, with the ultimate Ponzi scheme of the banks buying sovereign debt, and the ECB financing the banks. It's the most disingenuous way of dealing with a solvency crisis - by adding layers and layers of liquidity - and it eventually will either spark runaway inflation, riots, government overthrow or the breakup of the European Union, and it's possible that all of the above could occur.

As for gold and silver, they were back in tandem, though with the higher dollar, they both should have been lower, instead of up, which they were, supposedly on global tensions and safe-haven status.

The other news of the day involved US employment figures from ADP, which reported a gain of 325,000 private sector jobs in the US, seasonally adjusted. The number was so large, and so far removed from official predictions (guesses), that traders generally ignored them, opting to wait for the equally-well-massaged non-farm payroll report from the BLS tomorrow.

That report, which will be issued at 8:30 am ET, should be a market mover, especially if it aligns well with the ADP number, but skeptics abound, and the estimates are for the US to have added somewhere between 120-175,000 new jobs, which would indicate exactly what? The BLS numbers are guestimates at best, but traders will likely take their cue from whatever blather comes from the Labor Department.

Stay tuned. It's going to get more bizarre as the year progresses.

Dow 12,415.70, -2.72 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 2,669.86, +21.50 (0.81%)
S&P 500 1,281.06, +3.76 (0.29%)
NYSE Composite 7,599.97, -12.18 (0.16%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,859,210,875
NYSE Volume 4,264,649,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3391-2193
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 140-37
WTI crude oil: 101.81, -1.41
Gold: 1,620.10, +7.40
Silver: 29.30, +0.20

Correlation Trades Breaking Down: Decoupling, Distress or Distribution?; Kodak Prepares for Bankruptcy

There have been, for many months, certainties in global markets from which investors and speculators could readily rely upon and profit from. The most obvious of these is the straightforward relationship of the Euro and US stocks.

Whenever the Euro was positive against the US Dollar, stocks would post gains as well. Euro down, stocks down. A simple trade for those speculators adroit enough to move money quickly in and out of currencies and stocks. It also created a very nice hedge for monied investors with a keen sense for geo-politics and the movement of money.

Another of these correlation trades has been in effect for years, even decades. when the Dollar Index (^DXY) moved higher, the price of a barrel of oil would go lower, since oil and almost all other major commodities are priced in dollars. A stronger dollar would thus buy more oil, or wheat, or soybeans, for instance.

Today, however, these two stalwarts of the inner, holistic trade deviated from their seemingly-predetermined paths. The Euro was off sharply, but stocks finished with modest gains or were flat, nonetheless. And the Dollar Index was up nicely, (80.097 +0.434 0.54%), but oil marched higher despite the obvious overpricing and general lack of demand over the past two weeks.

The oil moves could be partially blamed on the Iranians and Europeans. Europe has set the parameters for a complete embargo of Iranian oil. For its part, Iran says it doesn't need to sell oil to europe as it has many other trading partners, China being the largest. The Iranians also say they can effectively shut down shipments of oil from other countries by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the free flow of energy from the region to Western nations.

While that's all well and not-so-good, it still doesn't explain the dislocation of the Dollars-for-oil trade and is entirely based upon speculation.

As for the Euro and US stocks, it wasn't a large move away from the direct correlation, but notable. Then there's silver and gold, the two precious metals that should always move in tandem, as they have for maybe thousands of years. Gold was up, silver down on the day, making silver, already a cheap cousin, even cheaper and wildly undervalued compared to gold, where the standard gold-silver ratio has traditionally been somewhere between 12:1 and 16:1, now stands at a stunning 55:1. It has been higher over recent years as gold shot up much faster than silver, but, if global tensions are accelerating, both metals should become good bets short term, though it stands to reason that silver would appreciate at a much faster rate, as it did in the first four months of 2011.

All of that implies that both the gold and silver (and not to mention stocks, commodities and currencies) markets aren't rigged, a condition that reams of evidence over many years say is so.

OK, then what's up with these markets if correlation trades, usually among the most reliable and steady, continue to break down? Is it decoupling for Europe, global distress or some technical distribution which the markets haven't anticipated from a zero interest rate policy and massive money printing (in shady but effective forms) by central banks around the globe? If oil goes up as the Dollar Index improves, so will stocks, and the precious metals will do whatever the manipulators deem necessary. It's not yet a trend, but bears watching, because decoupling often is a harbinger of even more fractured conditions in markets, which would make perfect sense in this mad world.

Something else bearing watching is the anticipated disappearance of the Kodak moment. The film maker has been on the ropes for years as the company failed to develop a strategy shifting from film cameras to digital photography, and the stock has suffered badly, losing almost all value over the past decade. A Wall Street Journal report today that the company was preparing to file a chapter 11 bankruptcy either this month or by early February should they not find buyers for their digital patents - valued, dubiously, at over $1 billion - sent shares plummeting.

Shares of Eastman Kodak (EK) finished the day down 0.18, to 0.47, a 28% decline. The company has also received a delisting notice from the NYSE, as the price of the stock has traded below $1 for more than a month, in violation of exchange rules.

That the company would eventually commit corporate hari-kari should come as no surprise. The stock traded as high as the low 80s in the late 1990s, and dropped permanently below 60 when the dotcom boom went bust in 2000-2001. Since then, the losses have mounted and the share price decline has been precipitous. This is a dead company without a product or strategy, which has wiped out its dividend, shareholders, and soon, pensioners, sure to be shuffled off to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, another backhanded bailout by the US taxpayer.

Dow 12,418.42, +21.04 (0.17%)
NASDAQ 2,648.36, -0.36 (0.01%)
S&P 500 1,277.30, +0.24 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 7,612.15, -12.17 (0.16%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,654,986,250
NYSE Volume 3,553,585,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2475-3130
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 102-34
WTI crude oil: 103.22, +0.26
Gold: 1,612.70, +12.20
Silver: 29.10, -0.48

Are Stocks Good? Precious Metals Bad?

If one has been paying attention to both equity and commodity markets the past few days, one would note a dramatic divergence between precious metals commodities - particularly gold and silver - and stocks. Yesterday, all asset classes were attacked to the downside, but today, the precious metals took it on the chin while the stock markets melted up nicely on horrific, dull, low volume. Silver actually finished a bit higher, but was ground down today as low as $26.20, before rocketing up on short covering.

Once again, there was nothing triggering either the rally in stocks nor the sell-off in gold and silver. Sure enough, oil was relatively flat, meaning that what the overlords of finance would like one to believe is that gold and silver are risky and not valued investments, while paper assets such as stocks and crude oil futures are good for one's portfolio.

This is while the Fed is printing money like it actually was backed by something other than the "full faith and credit of the US government" and the nations of Europe cannot continue to carry on the socialist policies that have bankrupted many a nation much longer.

In normal times, selling off gold or silver to buy stocks would be pure speculative folly, and even in these unusual days of collapsing currencies, indecision and wild market swings, it still qualifies as a bad idea, even moreso.

The reason for the disparity between the precious metals is that the big banks, along with central bankers, actually wish to hoard gold and silver, but, as is their normal practice, don't want to pay market rates. Thus, they manipulate the price of the two metals down through the various ETFs, particularly, GLD and SLV. Such manipulation has continued for some time. In the case of gold, there is documentation that the downward manipulation has been in place for 30 or 40 years. It's only in the past decade that demand for gold has outstripped the banking cartel's ability to suppress it, but they're certainly back at it with gusto over the past few months, having the CME (post-MF Global) in their back pocket.

The truth is somewhere in between. Taken from the long-standing perspective that this blog has maintained over the past four years running, the breakdown of asset classes goes something like this: gold, silver, tools of trades, working transportation devices (cars, trucks, bikes), raw land and paid-in-full residences: GOOD. Any paper asset, excepting actual currency to meet regular expenses: NOT SO GOOD.

Tomorrow, being the last trading day of the year, we'll look at how our predictions for 2011 fared and offer a glimpse into the financial future with some quick takes on 2012.

Dow 12,287.04, +135.63 (1.12%)
NASDAQ 2,613.74, +23.76 (0.92%)
S&P 500 1,263.01, +13.37 (1.07%)
NYSE Composite 7,482.42, +85.43 (1.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 995,351,250
NYSE Volume 2,229,853,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4292-1394
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 143-111
WTI crude oil: 99.65, +0.29
Gold: 1,540.90, -23.20
Silver: 27.32, +0.08

A Wall Street Snoozer

Wall Street pretty much mailed this one in today, as there was no significant follow-up to yesterday's machine-driven rally. No surprise there, as all positions are squared up by the computers, with no place to go forward without positive economic news.

Stocks started lower and ended higher, with marginal gains, completely ignoring the three economic reports, which, in a less-controlled, more robust environment would have sent the Dow reeling to a 200-point decline, though in today's completely schizophrenic environment, data doesn't matter, especially if it's not good.

The Case-Shiller Home Index fell another 4.52% on a year-on-year basis, but marked the third straight month of increasing prices, with a 1.1% increase from May to June. The Index, which is cited by most economists but is greatly flawed and dated, does not factor into account many foreclosure and short sales.

Pending home sales fell by 1.3% in June, another lagging indicator, and the expectation is for further declines in July and August, which will be reported near the end of September and October, just in time to inform everybody of what they;ll already know by then, that the US economy is in serious decline. In the meantime, wall Street uses the flawed, late data to bolster its own "recovery" theme and keep stock prices high.

Something from which nobody can hide, however, was the government's own reading on consumer confidence which dove to 44.5, from 59.2 in July, its lowest level since April, 2009, which was pretty much at the end of the financial collapse of 2008.

Consumers aren't happy, but Wall Street continues to plug along, pushing the same corporations that laid off millions and haven't hired many back.

Dow 11,559.95, +20.70 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 2,576.11, +14.00 (0.55%)
S&P 500 1,212.92, +2.84 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 7,464.00, +13.70 (0.18%)

Advancing issues beat losing ones, 3896-2581. There were 26 new highs on the NASDAQ, with 22 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs topped new lows, 41-4, putting the combined total at a moderately positive, 67-26, in favor of new highs. Volume was light.

NASDAQ Volume 1,846,172,625
NYSE Volume 4,543,808,500

Without any reason other than there's a big driving weekend coming up with Labor Day, oil galloped ahead $1.63, to $88.90 at the close. Gas prices have been reported as rising by about a nickel nationally, this, of course, prior to them coming down much at all when oil futures were hovering just above $80/barrel.

Countering the excesses of the oil cartel, gold gained $46.50, to $1835.00, erasing much of the losses from the previous six sessions and more or less thumbing its nose at the backers of debt-backed money. Silver managed to gain 43 cents, to $41.31 the ounce.

Advice for today: Buy a good, used bike. Many available, good exercise and the cost of fuel is zero.